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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Horned frogs :( on October 20, 2016, 06:05:21 am



Title: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: Horned frogs :( on October 20, 2016, 06:05:21 am
10/20:
Trump - 41 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (+/-)
Stein - 5 (+/-)
Other - 2 (+/-)
Not Sure - 5 (+/-)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

This will be updated daily at 6 AM Eastern


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 20, 2016, 06:11:54 am
Oh god, another one?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread
Post by: Horned frogs :( on October 20, 2016, 06:12:58 am
()


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 20, 2016, 06:15:07 am
Head-to-head, 10/20::
Clinton     43.1% (-0.5%)
Trump     41.0%  (+0.4%)
Other       5.0%   (-0.5%)
Not Sure 10.8%   (+0.5%)


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Phony Moderate on October 20, 2016, 06:35:33 am
If it has a name that is almost 'TPP' or 'TTIP' then it's going to be crap. :)


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 20, 2016, 06:40:09 am
Best thing about them going to a tracker, like Rassy, is they essentailly diminish their impact on the various election projection models (538, upshot, etc).


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: HokeyDood on October 20, 2016, 06:43:51 am
I'm glad that SOMEONE is giving Seriously? and StatesPoll something to jack off to every morning.  Don't want those two backed up on election day and then feeling the need to volunteer as poll monitors in their nearest "urban" precinct.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 20, 2016, 06:48:19 am
Best thing about them going to a tracker, like Rassy, is they essentailly diminish their impact on the various election projection models (538, upshot, etc).
Ehm, no. They will have exactly the same impact. But it will be spread out the impact on each day rather than once in a month.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 20, 2016, 06:52:08 am
Best thing about them going to a tracker, like Rassy, is they essentailly diminish their impact on the various election projection models (538, upshot, etc).
Ehm, no. They will have exactly the same impact. But it will be spread out the impact on each day rather than once in a month.

Nate Silver has said in the past that trackers are weighted less than regular polls.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 20, 2016, 07:06:45 am
Best thing about them going to a tracker, like Rassy, is they essentailly diminish their impact on the various election projection models (538, upshot, etc).
Ehm, no. They will have exactly the same impact. But it will be spread out the impact on each day rather than once in a month.

Nate Silver has said in the past that trackers are weighted less than regular polls.

Just look at http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/ (http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/national-polls/). Daily trackers have descent weights.
If you compare similar polls, for example Ipsos and Quinnipac (they have the same rating A-, approximately the same sample size and the dates) have almost the same weights, even though Ipsos is a daily tracker. Nate probably meant that they threat them as a weekly trackers.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Seriously? on October 20, 2016, 10:18:45 am
I'm glad that SOMEONE is giving Seriously? and StatesPoll something to jack off to every morning.  Don't want those two backed up on election day and then feeling the need to volunteer as poll monitors in their nearest "urban" precinct.
Excuse you? Was that really necessary?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: FM Scott🦋 on October 20, 2016, 07:05:09 pm
I'm glad that SOMEONE is giving Seriously? and StatesPoll something to jack off to every morning.  Don't want those two backed up on election day and then feeling the need to volunteer as poll monitors in their nearest "urban" precinct.
Excuse you? Was that really necessary?

You know, you're cute when you're angry.  Has anybody ever told you that?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: StatesPoll on October 21, 2016, 06:02:18 am
10/20:
Trump - 41 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (+/-)
Stein - 5 (+/-)
Other - 2 (+/-)
Not Sure - 5 (+/-)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

This will be updated daily at 6 AM Eastern



IBD/TIPP  10/21
Total TRUMP 41.1% | Hillary 40.2% | Johnson 7.7% | Stein 4.4%

Look at the Catholics!

Catholics (25% shares of Total voters.)
2012: Obama 50% | Romney 48%. Obama +2%
IBD/TIPP : TRUMP 49% | Hillary 36%.   TRUMP +13%

#PodestaEmailsEffect  (mocked catholics)
#CatholicsDontLikeHillary


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Lok on October 21, 2016, 06:14:29 am
10/20:
Trump - 41 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (+/-)
Stein - 5 (+/-)
Other - 2 (+/-)
Not Sure - 5 (+/-)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

This will be updated daily at 6 AM Eastern



IBD/TIPP  10/21
Total TRUMP 41.1% | Hillary 40.2% | Johnson 7.7% | Stein 4.4%

Look at the Catholics!

Catholics (25% shares of Total voters.)
2012: Obama 50% | Romney 48%. Obama +2%
IBD/TIPP : TRUMP 49% | Hillary 36%.   TRUMP +13%


#PodestaEmailsEffect  (mocked catholics)
#CatholicsDontLikeHillary


()
mods pls ban
obama pls drone


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: StatesPoll on October 21, 2016, 06:18:08 am
mods pls ban
obama pls drone
[/quote]

your reaction becuz of TRUMP flipped catholic voters?

lol



Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/20 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Lok on October 21, 2016, 06:24:58 am

your reaction becuz of TRUMP flipped catholic voters?

lol


2 things:

1: FTFY
2: the opposite is actually the case, clinton is currently leading catholics 61-34

SOURCE: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/18/white-catholic-vote-turns-on-donald-trump-handing-hillary-clinto/


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/21 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Horned frogs :( on October 21, 2016, 06:32:49 am
10/21:
Trump - 41 (+/-)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 8 (+1)
Stein - 4 (-1)

Head to Head:
Clinton - 43
Trump - 41

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/21 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 21, 2016, 10:57:35 am
do all trackers include such strange samples?

still trump +1 but....

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

clinton leading in the northeast by 9, midwest by 1, west by 6...trails south by 11 and this results into a trump lead?

other nuggets:

catholics are more anti-clinton than evangelicals, old people like clinton more those between 45 and 64, hispanics are closer than the last 2 elections.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Horned frogs :( on October 22, 2016, 05:49:12 am
10/22:

4 way:
Trump - 42 (+1)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (-1)
Stein - 4 (+/-)

2way:
Trump - 42 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (-1)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/21 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Ljube on October 22, 2016, 05:54:49 am
do all trackers include such strange samples?

still trump +1 but....

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

clinton leading in the northeast by 9, midwest by 1, west by 6...trails south by 11 and this results into a trump lead?

other nuggets:

catholics are more anti-clinton than evangelicals, old people like clinton more those between 45 and 64, hispanics are closer than the last 2 elections.

All of that is normal and expected.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/21 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 22, 2016, 06:08:20 am
do all trackers include such strange samples?

still trump +1 but....

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

clinton leading in the northeast by 9, midwest by 1, west by 6...trails south by 11 and this results into a trump lead?

other nuggets:

catholics are more anti-clinton than evangelicals, old people like clinton more those between 45 and 64, hispanics are closer than the last 2 elections.

All of that is normal and expected.


How? You get weird sub-samples, but dude, c'mon.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 22, 2016, 06:19:34 am
10/22:

4 way:
Trump - 42 (+1)
Clinton - 40 (+/-)
Johnson - 7 (-1)
Stein - 4 (+/-)

2way:
Trump - 42 (+1)
Clinton - 42 (-1)

Source: http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

RIP KILLARY!!!


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/21 - Trump + 1/ Clinton + 2)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 22, 2016, 06:52:41 am
do all trackers include such strange samples?

still trump +1 but....

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

clinton leading in the northeast by 9, midwest by 1, west by 6...trails south by 11 and this results into a trump lead?

other nuggets:

catholics are more anti-clinton than evangelicals, old people like clinton more those between 45 and 64, hispanics are closer than the last 2 elections.

All of that is normal and expected.


How? You get weird sub-samples, but dude, c'mon.
Small subsampbles. Poll has ~700LV, meaning that each subsample is about 100-200 LV. And this should be weighted as well. By chance can 5 old African-Americans all coming from Northeast etc. Trump's African American from LA Times is an extreme example of that. He got a 30 weight which is a methodological issue, but even in "normal" "A" pollsters some groups get 3-4 weights (young non-whites), while others (old whites) get 0.3.

This together with small samples gives weird results. Ipsos 50-nationall survey is a good example, some small states with small samples give strange result, while on average nationall lead is consistent with 538 average. Monmouth and subsamples of SUSA are another good examples. Monmouth is one of the best pollsters on average, but their small samples caused sometimes weird swings.

Upshot wrote a good article http://www.nytimes.com/2016/09/19/upshot/introducing-the-new-york-times-upshot-siena-college-poll.html
()

Pollsters do not publish subsamples to give some deeper insights, no. They publish it in first place for transparency.


I'm not defending this particular poll. I believe in average and think that 538/Upshot gives a fair picture of where the race stands.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 11:03:58 am
wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

according to the their homepage it was the most accurate for the last 3 elections but they have never been so different from the general average.

let's wait for the new weekend polls.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 22, 2016, 11:04:14 am
TBT to when IBD/TIPP was crazy in 2008, but got credit and auto-fellated because it had a good final poll:

()

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/mark-blumenthal/hitting_a_bullet_with_a_bullet_b_725707.html


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Arch on October 22, 2016, 11:05:30 am
wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

according to the their homepage it was the most accurate for the last 3 elections but they have never been so different from the general average.

let's wait for the new weekend polls.

There's also the fact that this is now a daily tracking poll, something they didn't do before.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 22, 2016, 11:06:34 am
I dont trust IBD because of this gem personally:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ibdtipp-doctors-poll-is-not-trustworthy/


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 22, 2016, 11:11:43 am
wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

Among the major pollsters, ABC/Washington Post poll and Pew Research came the closest in 2012. They predicted +3 Obama when the actual result was +3.9.

IBD/TIPP may have been the most accurate if you average past 3 elections but that's due to their performance in 2004 and 2008. In 2012, they had nearly +3 Republican bias.

Pew Research for the past 3 elections has not been off by more than 1.2 and they showed +7 Clinton in their last poll.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: republicanx on October 22, 2016, 11:26:12 am
if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 11:27:42 am
if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.
  3 point bias + MOE, at least. ^^


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Arch on October 22, 2016, 11:27:54 am
if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.

Practically every national poll and all state polls point otherwise, so no. There's no way Trump is even close to a tie with Texas being in the low single-digits, and him under performing in Rep states that are usually 60%+ like ID.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 22, 2016, 11:29:59 am
I dont trust IBD because of this gem personally:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ibdtipp-doctors-poll-is-not-trustworthy/

Quote
As we learned during the Presidntial campaign — when, among other things, they had John McCain winning the youth vote 74-22 — the IBD/TIPP polling operation has literally no idea what they’re doing. I mean, literally none. For example, I don’t trust IBD/TIPP to have competently selected anything resembling a random panel, which is harder to do than you’d think.

Lol


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: republicanx on October 22, 2016, 11:30:50 am
if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.

Practically every national poll and all state polls point otherwise, so no. There's no way Trump is even close to a tie with Texas being in the low single-digits, and him under performing in Rep states that are usually 60%+ like ID.

texas will stay republican so will georgia etc, clinton is underperforming in early voting especially in nc not hitting 2012 #'s where she needs to do well or trump will win esp in a close race.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 11:32:44 am
clinton is underperforming in early voting especially in nc not hitting 2012 #'s where she needs to do well or trump will win esp in a close race.

she is not atm, there are less available early voting stations.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Arch on October 22, 2016, 11:33:00 am
if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.

Practically every national poll and all state polls point otherwise, so no. There's no way Trump is even close to a tie with Texas being in the low single-digits, and him under performing in Rep states that are usually 60%+ like ID.

texas will stay republican so will georgia etc, clinton is underperforming in early voting especially in nc not hitting 2012 #'s where she needs to do well or trump will win esp in a close race.

No, she is not under performing in NC. Dem numbers are slightly up and Rep numbers are extremely down.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 22, 2016, 11:33:22 am
IBD/TIPP may have been the most accurate if you average past 3 elections but that's due to their performance in 2004 and 2008. In 2012, they had nearly +3 Republican bias.
In 2012 everyone had about 2-3 R bias. They are good, but are clearly an outlier this year/right now. No pollster is perfect in each election. Nothing strange here.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 11:34:25 am
i believe that the race is closer than clinton +7 but tied or trump lead would be a difference from 7 to 10 points....not likely.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: republicanx on October 22, 2016, 11:35:54 am
if there is a 2-3 point bias this race is essentially tied.

Practically every national poll and all state polls point otherwise, so no. There's no way Trump is even close to a tie with Texas being in the low single-digits, and him under performing in Rep states that are usually 60%+ like ID.
texas will stay republican so will georgia etc, clinton is underperforming in early voting especially in nc not hitting 2012 #'s where she needs to do well or trump will win esp in a close race.

No, she is not under performing in NC. Dem numbers are slightly up and Rep numbers are extremely down.
slightly up? i mean electproject is saying something different. Also, 6% less blacks voting from 2012 and if there r more white they r voting for trump... 25% of whites in NC r voting for clinton.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 11:39:18 am
slightly up? i mean electproject is saying something different. Also, 6% less blacks voting from 2012 and if there r more white they r voting for trump... 25% of whites in NC r voting for clinton.

ALL are down from 2012 cause of a lack of voting stations but republicans are significant weaker than 2012 atm.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789789737078972416


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Arch on October 22, 2016, 11:40:28 am
slightly up? i mean electproject is saying something different. Also, 6% less blacks voting from 2012 and if there r more white they r voting for trump... 25% of whites in NC r voting for clinton.

ALL are down from 2012 cause of a lack of voting stations but republicans are significant weaker than 2012 atm.

https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/789789737078972416

There you go


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: republicanx on October 22, 2016, 12:04:45 pm
slightly up? i mean electproject is saying something different. Also, 6% less blacks voting from 2012 and if there r more white they r voting for trump... 25% of whites in NC r voting for clinton.

ALL are down from 2012 cause of a lack of voting stations but republicans are significant weaker than 2012 atm.



There you go

comparison to 2012 how how much was the lead democrats had going into election day


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 12:11:29 pm
comparison to 2012 how how much was the lead democrats had going into election day

170.000 votes.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 22, 2016, 12:15:54 pm
So on the whole, Trump isn't keeping up with Romney?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: republicanx on October 22, 2016, 12:17:23 pm
Democrats up 60k at the moment correct? Do they usually increase over time or do republicans close the gap near election day? (sorry for al these questions) The stats r so interesting to me.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Arch on October 22, 2016, 12:17:51 pm
Democrats up 60k at the moment correct? Do they usually increase over time or do republicans close the gap near election day? (sorry for al these questions) The stats r so interesting to me.

They increase over time.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 12:18:34 pm
Democrats up 60k at the moment correct? Do they usually increase over time or do republicans close the gap near election day? (sorry for al these questions) The stats r so interesting to me.

dem soar even more close to election day, only to get crushed sometimes at the actual day.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 22, 2016, 12:18:57 pm
wasn't this was the most accurate poll in 2012? but who knows, polls are unreliable.

Among the major pollsters, ABC/Washington Post poll and Pew Research came the closest in 2012. They predicted +3 Obama when the actual result was +3.9.

IBD/TIPP may have been the most accurate if you average past 3 elections but that's due to their performance in 2004 and 2008. In 2012, they had nearly +3 Republican bias.

Pew Research for the past 3 elections has not been off by more than 1.2 and they showed +7 Clinton in their last poll.

It maybe down to different methodology,
Do you think a higher turnout among white working class voters and latino voters, may result in different regional results then polls may been illustrating?

Polls in the states do a fairly good job of capturing who is likely to turn out regardless of demographics and regions.

General election in the US has not been off by more than 2.5 points since 2000.

2000 +2.2 Republican bias
2004 +1 Democrat bias
2008 +0.1 Democrat bias
2012 +2.5 Republican bias

When the bias was somewhat significant, it was more likely to have Republican bias. Pollsters would have to be way off if Trump outperforms the aggregate by 6 or 7 this year. Possible but unlikely imo.

The fact that their margin is even more favorable than Republican-leaning Rasmussen is a red flag for me.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 22, 2016, 12:19:56 pm
If it increases over time and the Democrats are proportionally higher than last time, it could get really rough for Republicans, huh?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 22, 2016, 12:32:17 pm
If it increases over time and the Democrats are proportionally higher than last time, it could get really rough for Republicans, huh?

Considering NC is about 60%+ Early Voting, yes.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: republicanx on October 22, 2016, 12:36:55 pm
is there possibility that the "white democrats" are voting trump and haven't changed their registration.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Arch on October 22, 2016, 12:40:18 pm
is there possibility that the "white democrats" are voting trump and haven't changed their registration.

Highly unlikely. The opposite is actually much much more likely.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: republicanx on October 22, 2016, 12:41:44 pm
I have family who r registered democrats and voting trump (voted obama twice). thats why i was wondering.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 22, 2016, 12:44:35 pm
ofc it's possible, especially in the rust belt.

but at the same time, many registered republican professionals are going to vote for hillary.

outside of OH/IA i wouldn't bet on it right now.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: republicanx on October 22, 2016, 12:45:22 pm
Yup, i'm from nj so it's happening there as well even tho it ain't a swing state.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Ebsy on October 22, 2016, 02:05:55 pm
Will be glad to see another pollster fall from grace.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 24, 2016, 06:18:45 am
Update (http://www.investors.com/politics/trump-clinton-in-dead-heat-as-race-hits-final-two-week-stretch-ibdtipp-poll/)

Clinton 41%
Trump 41%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

Clinton 42%
Trump 42%


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/22 - Trump + 2/TIE)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 24, 2016, 06:44:14 am
Intresting. Both LA Times, IBD and probably ABC polls shows a further dive of Trump's support recently. I'll watch Gallup fav/unfav update today.

Election-is-rigged/I-won't-accept-the-results effect? It will be a really fun week :D


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 24, 2016, 09:29:02 am
IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: Kalimantan on October 24, 2016, 09:32:54 am
IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

Trump is at 41% in this poll. In the ABC Clinton+12 poll, Trump is at ........... 41%

So I guess if IBD just pushes leaners a bit more, and ABC finds some more third-party voters, they can quite happily end up in the same place


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 24, 2016, 10:01:23 am
IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

2012 is not a good example because most polls showed the race as dead heat so I checked out 2008.

IBD herded hard-core in 2008. They were, on average, showing lower margin for Obama only to join the crowd toward the end.

Check out 2008 numbers for the last few weeks.

Diageo/Hotline   10/20 - 10/22   769 LV   3.5   48   43   Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby   10/20 - 10/22   1206 LV   2.9   52   40   Obama +12
ABC News/Wash Post   10/19 - 10/22   1335 LV   2.5   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP              10/18 - 10/22   1060 LV   3.5   45   44   Obama +1
GWU/Battleground   10/16 - 10/22   1000 LV   3.5   49   45   Obama +4
FOX News   10/20 - 10/21   936 LV   3.0   49   40   Obama +9
CBS News/NY Times   10/19 - 10/22   771 LV   --   52   39   Obama +13


ABC News/Wash Post   10/23 - 10/26   1314 LV   2.5   52   45   Obama +7
Pew Research           10/23 - 10/26   1198 LV   3.5   53   38   Obama +15
IBD/TIPP              10/22 - 10/26   824 LV   3.5   47   44   Obama +3
GWU/Battleground   10/20 - 10/26   1000 LV   3.5   49   46   Obama +3
Newsweek                    10/22 - 10/23   882 LV   4.0   53   41   Obama +12

But somehow their average became more realistic toward the end.

Rasmussen Reports        11/1 - 11/3   3000 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby  11/1 - 11/3   1201 LV   2.9   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP                   11/1 - 11/3   981 LV   3.2   52   44   Obama +8
FOX News                        11/1 - 11/2   971 LV   3.0   50   43   Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   11/1 - 11/2   1011 LV   3.1   51   43   Obama +8


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: Kalimantan on October 24, 2016, 10:12:48 am
IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

2012 is not a good example because most polls showed the race as dead heat so I checked out 2008.

IBD herded hard-core in 2008. They were, on average, showing lower margin for Obama only to join the crowd toward the end.

Check out 2008 numbers for the last few weeks.

Diageo/Hotline   10/20 - 10/22   769 LV   3.5   48   43   Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby   10/20 - 10/22   1206 LV   2.9   52   40   Obama +12
ABC News/Wash Post   10/19 - 10/22   1335 LV   2.5   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP              10/18 - 10/22   1060 LV   3.5   45   44   Obama +1
GWU/Battleground   10/16 - 10/22   1000 LV   3.5   49   45   Obama +4
FOX News   10/20 - 10/21   936 LV   3.0   49   40   Obama +9
CBS News/NY Times   10/19 - 10/22   771 LV   --   52   39   Obama +13


ABC News/Wash Post   10/23 - 10/26   1314 LV   2.5   52   45   Obama +7
Pew Research           10/23 - 10/26   1198 LV   3.5   53   38   Obama +15
IBD/TIPP              10/22 - 10/26   824 LV   3.5   47   44   Obama +3
GWU/Battleground   10/20 - 10/26   1000 LV   3.5   49   46   Obama +3
Newsweek                    10/22 - 10/23   882 LV   4.0   53   41   Obama +12

But somehow their average became more realistic toward the end.

Rasmussen Reports        11/1 - 11/3   3000 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby  11/1 - 11/3   1201 LV   2.9   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP                   11/1 - 11/3   981 LV   3.2   52   44   Obama +8
FOX News                        11/1 - 11/2   971 LV   3.0   50   43   Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   11/1 - 11/2   1011 LV   3.1   51   43   Obama +8

again, similarly to my post two-up, McCain is at 44 in all three of those polls, and that number is not an outlier relative to other polls, its Obama's number which shifts. Just like Trump is at 41-44% in all polls at present, whilst Clinton's number is much more variable. That's the result of different LV screens I guess, with the closer polls perhaps being stricter on these to promote the idea of a closer race...?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 24, 2016, 10:47:29 am
IBD is definitely going to show a major swing towards Clinton right before the end so they can keep up their "most accurate pollster" shtick, mark my words.

2012 is not a good example because most polls showed the race as dead heat so I checked out 2008.

IBD herded hard-core in 2008. They were, on average, showing lower margin for Obama only to join the crowd toward the end.

Check out 2008 numbers for the last few weeks.

Diageo/Hotline   10/20 - 10/22   769 LV   3.5   48   43   Obama +5
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby   10/20 - 10/22   1206 LV   2.9   52   40   Obama +12
ABC News/Wash Post   10/19 - 10/22   1335 LV   2.5   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP              10/18 - 10/22   1060 LV   3.5   45   44   Obama +1
GWU/Battleground   10/16 - 10/22   1000 LV   3.5   49   45   Obama +4
FOX News   10/20 - 10/21   936 LV   3.0   49   40   Obama +9
CBS News/NY Times   10/19 - 10/22   771 LV   --   52   39   Obama +13


ABC News/Wash Post   10/23 - 10/26   1314 LV   2.5   52   45   Obama +7
Pew Research           10/23 - 10/26   1198 LV   3.5   53   38   Obama +15
IBD/TIPP              10/22 - 10/26   824 LV   3.5   47   44   Obama +3
GWU/Battleground   10/20 - 10/26   1000 LV   3.5   49   46   Obama +3
Newsweek                    10/22 - 10/23   882 LV   4.0   53   41   Obama +12

But somehow their average became more realistic toward the end.

Rasmussen Reports        11/1 - 11/3   3000 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6
Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby  11/1 - 11/3   1201 LV   2.9   54   43   Obama +11
IBD/TIPP                   11/1 - 11/3   981 LV   3.2   52   44   Obama +8
FOX News                        11/1 - 11/2   971 LV   3.0   50   43   Obama +7
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl   11/1 - 11/2   1011 LV   3.1   51   43   Obama +8
You are cherry-picking. Other polls during the same period:

IBD/TIPP
IBD/TIPP   11/1 - 11/3   981 LV   3.2   52   44   Obama +8
IBD/TIPP   10/22 - 10/26   824 LV   3.5   47   44   Obama +3
IBD/TIPP   10/18 - 10/22   1060 LV   3.5   45   44   Obama +1
IBD/TIPP   10/14 - 10/18   1072 LV   3.0   47   42   Obama +5

Gallup
Gallup         10/31 - 11/2   2472 LV   2.0   55   44   Obama +11
Gallup (Traditional)*   10/30 - 11/1   2503 LV   2.0   51   43   Obama +8
Gallup (Expanded)*   10/30 - 11/1   2475 LV   2.0   52   43   Obama +9
Gallup (Traditional)*   10/24 - 10/26   2446 LV   2.0   50   45   Obama +5
Gallup (Expanded)*   10/24 - 10/26   2343 LV   2.0   53   43   Obama +10
Gallup (Traditional)*   10/20 - 10/22   2399 LV   2.0   50   46   Obama +4
Gallup (Expanded)*   10/20 - 10/22   2349 LV   2.0   51   45   Obama +6
Gallup (Traditional)*   10/16 - 10/18   2590 LV   2.0   49   46   Obama +3
Gallup (Expanded)*   10/16 - 10/18   2277 LV   2.0   51   44   Obama +7


Pew
Pew Research   10/29 - 11/1   2587 LV   2.0   52   46   Obama +6
Pew Research   10/23 - 10/26   1198 LV   3.5   53   38   Obama +15
Pew Research   10/16 - 10/19   2382 LV   2.5   53   39   Obama +14

Gallup showed approximately the same trend from Obama ~+5 to ~+10
Pew showed a "hardboard herding" as you said.


IIRC, 538 calculate their rating based on last 4 weeks of elections. So it should at least take care of "final-week herding". In theory.

P.S. Right now IBD/TIPP is heavily off. No doubt.
That's why one should average.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 25, 2016, 06:06:53 am
10/25: Clinton +1 (2-way and 4-way)
Clinton - 42% (+1)
Trump - 41%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 3% (-1)

Clinton - 43% (+1)
Trump - 42%

Trump is now trailing in every single 2-way National poll, and every single 4-way National poll besides Rasmussen.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 25, 2016, 06:20:56 am
IBD always herds as the election nears. They did it in 2008 as well


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 25, 2016, 06:21:47 am
So no one has the Donald ahead?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 25, 2016, 06:29:00 am

Only Rasmussen, for now.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: Mallow on October 25, 2016, 08:05:47 am

Not anymore.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: ReapSow on October 25, 2016, 01:21:02 pm
Poor McGropey. He can't even tweet about being up 1 point in the last remaining garbage polls.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 25, 2016, 04:10:59 pm
Washington Post article on why this pollster differs so much. If you are easily triggered by poor methodology, do not read this:

Quote
Weighting marks an area where IBD/TIPP’s poll is more unusual on two fronts. First, the poll weighs its sample of registered voters to match 2014 Current Population Survey estimates for that group by age, gender, racial and region. By contrast, the most regular national surveys weigh their overall adult samples to demographics of the voting-age population, for which benchmarks are published with greater regularity. Although the IBD poll weights to different census population parameters than other surveys, it is not clear that this would necessarily boost Trump’s support in a survey without testing.

Education also was not a weighting factor in IBD’s survey, though it is commonly used in surveys since adults with less education tend to be hard to reach in public opinion polls. This year, lower- and higher-educated white voters have diverged sharply in their support for Clinton and Trump.

A second unusual aspect of IBD/TIPP’s weighting is party identification, where the survey’s sample of registered voters is weighted to match a predetermined estimate for the share of self-identified Democrats, Republicans, independents and others. Mayur declined to provide details on the source of party identification benchmarks, describing them as proprietary, although weighting sources are a required element of disclosure for the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/25/why-the-pollster-who-has-trump-and-clinton-tied-says-he-isnt-worried-about-his-results/


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: BundouYMB on October 25, 2016, 04:21:45 pm
Looooooooooooooooooooooool

Weighting by party ID! Literally the unskewers poll!


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: Ebsy on October 25, 2016, 04:43:01 pm
Weighting by Party ID is indefensible.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/26 - Clinton + 1)
Post by: Horned frogs :( on October 26, 2016, 05:04:02 am
Staying constant today, Clinton 42-Trump 41


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 26, 2016, 05:06:43 am
Weighting by Party ID is indefensible.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/26 - Clinton + 1)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 26, 2016, 05:17:05 am
10/26: Clinton +1 in 4-way, +2 in 2-way
Clinton - 42%
Trump - 41%
Johnson - 8%
Stein - 3%

Clinton - 43%
Trump - 41% (-1)

Looking into the demographic breakdowns, the most glaring thing seems to performance among Hispanics. They have it as 50% Clinton, 25% Trump, 10% Johnson, 9% Stein. Catholic breakdown is also highly questionable, at 48% Trump, 37% Clinton, 7% Johnson, 3% Stein.

(Thread title should be edited to include 2-way and 4-way numbers)


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/27 - Clinton + 2)
Post by: Horned frogs :( on October 27, 2016, 04:58:32 am
Clinton moves into a 43-41 point lead on Day 9


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: StatesPoll on October 27, 2016, 05:06:55 am

it's not +2%, it's Hillary +1.2%

10/27 IBD/TIPP  http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
Hillary 42.6% | TRUMP 41.4% | Johnson 7.5% | Stein 2.2%

not bad results, considering it used Dem +8% skewed samples.



Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/27 - Clinton + 2)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 27, 2016, 05:12:10 am
since decimals are from hell, it will be reported as clinton +2.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/24 - TIE)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 27, 2016, 05:21:25 am

it's not +2%, it's Hillary +1.2%

10/27 IBD/TIPP  http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/
Hillary 42.6% | TRUMP 41.4% | Johnson 7.5% | Stein 2.2%

not bad results, considering it used Dem +8% skewed samples.

()


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/27 - Clinton + 2)
Post by: StatesPoll on October 27, 2016, 05:28:53 am
since decimals are from hell, it will be reportet as clinton +2.

hahahaha


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/27 - Clinton + 2)
Post by: Horned frogs :( on October 27, 2016, 05:54:34 am
Lol, go to the website, the tracker has it Clinton 43 - Trump 41 and their article states Clinton "clings" to 2 point lead, silly Statespoll.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/27 - Clinton + 2)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 28, 2016, 05:47:42 am
2% swing towards Hillary today.

C+3.0    4-way
C+3.4    2-way

Quote
She's also up three points unrounded, 43.8%-40.8%, up from 1.2 points the day before.

Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 7.3% while Green Party nominee Jill Stein has fallen to 1.8%, with 2.2% for "other" and 4.1% for "not sure."

In a two-way matchup, Clinton leads 45.2%-41.8%, or 3.4 points.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/28 - Clinton + 3)
Post by: ReapSow on October 28, 2016, 08:57:32 am
Poor Donald. This was his alternate reality just a few days ago...

()


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/28 - Clinton + 3)
Post by: dspNY on October 29, 2016, 06:26:33 am
Now IBD shows a larger lead for Clinton than WaPo. Go figure

Clinton 44.5%
Trump 40.6%
Johnson 6.8%
Stein 1.8%

Two-way

Clinton 45.5%
Trump 41.0%

http://www.investors.com/politics/clintons-lead-expands-to-4-points-as-her-campaign-is-rocked-by-new-email-scandal-bombshell-ibdtipp-poll/


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/29 - Clinton + 4/ Clinton +5)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 07:03:13 am
Average and move on. Both were outliers and now "converging" on average to "true value".


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/29 - Clinton + 4/ Clinton +5)
Post by: Fargobison on October 29, 2016, 10:26:38 am
It is hilarious that Trumpers I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/29 - Clinton + 4/ Clinton +5)
Post by: ReapSow on October 29, 2016, 12:08:25 pm
It is hilarious that Trumpers I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.

Trump sheep will take anything they can get.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/29 - Clinton + 4/ Clinton +5)
Post by: Hammy on October 29, 2016, 12:08:36 pm
Is there a reason we're seeing such a vast difference not only in result but also trend with the tracking polls?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/29 - Clinton + 4/ Clinton +5)
Post by: dspNY on October 29, 2016, 12:09:44 pm
Is there a reason we're seeing such a vast difference not only in result but also trend with the tracking polls?

Tracking polls are largely terrible


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/29 - Clinton + 4/ Clinton +5)
Post by: Arch on October 29, 2016, 12:11:19 pm
Is there a reason we're seeing such a vast difference not only in result but also trend with the tracking polls?

What we can extrapolate, Hillary is likely leading about +3-+5 post Comey crap. Polls' LV screens are failing massively, which is giving us the range of variation.

The only thing we know is that she is leading and that she has done amazingly well with the 20 million early voters who have already cast their ballots. Outside of that, it's a guessing game at this point. Go and vote!


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/29 - Clinton + 4/ Clinton +5)
Post by: Hammy on October 29, 2016, 12:15:50 pm
Is there a reason we're seeing such a vast difference not only in result but also trend with the tracking polls?

What we can extrapolate, Hillary is likely leading about +3-+5 post Comey crap. Polls' LV screens are failing massively, which is giving us the range of variation.

The only thing we know is that she is leading and that she has done amazingly well with the 20 million early voters who have already cast their ballots. Outside of that, it's a guessing game at this point. Go and vote!

I'll more than likely go on election day rather than early--it's a nearly 30 minute drive with no air conditioning in near-record heat to the early voting here.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/29 - Clinton + 4/ Clinton +5)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 06:14:10 am
()


Clinton    Trump   Johnson   Stein      Other   Not sure
44.1%   41.6%   5.6%      2.4%      2.3%      4.0%

Two-way

Clinton   Trump   Other   Not sure
44.9%   41.3%   5.3%      8.5%


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/30 - Clinton + 2/ Clinton +4)
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 30, 2016, 09:24:12 am
Here are the latest crosstabs by party:

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll/

Dems
Clinton 86%
Trump 6%
Stein 3%
Johnson 2%

GOP
Trump 84%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 44%
Clinton 34%
Johnson 10%
Stein 3%

Compared to their poll from a week ago, the biggest shift is among Democrats:

http://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/IBD_TIPP_PresidentialElectionPoll_102316.pdf

A week ago, they had Clinton with just 77% of Dems, compared to 9% for Trump, so that’s a big shift.  The GOP and Indy #s haven’t changed much.

Also, the regional breakdown they have at the moment is…

Midwest: Clinton +3
Northeast: Clinton +5
South: Trump +2
West: Clinton +9

Biggest regional shifts towards Clinton compared to their polling from last week is in the South and West.  Midwest and Northeast haven’t changed much.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: Horned frogs :( on October 31, 2016, 05:02:10 am
Clinton moves to a 45-44 (+1 lead) in the 4 way, down to a 2 point lead in the 2 way.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 31, 2016, 05:27:28 am
Clinton moves to a 45-44 (+1 lead) in the 4 way, down to a 2 point lead in the 2 way.

WTF is this thing?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: Ljube on October 31, 2016, 05:35:33 am
Clinton moves to a 45-44 (+1 lead) in the 4 way, down to a 2 point lead in the 2 way.

WTF is this thing?

Hillary is in freefall.
It's Obamacare.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 31, 2016, 05:36:08 am
Clinton moves to a 45-44 (+1 lead) in the 4 way, down to a 2 point lead in the 2 way.

WTF is this thing?

Hillary is in freefall.
It's Obamacare.


Thank you for your continued input.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: alomas on October 31, 2016, 07:13:04 am
Comey finally doing his job properly and the people's reaction in numbers. Trump is gettnig ever closer.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 01, 2016, 05:09:14 am
Today:

C+0.9 (4-way)
C+0.8 (2-way)

Quote
Just last week, Clinton appeared to be building an insurmountable lead in both the popular vote and the electoral college. But polling data show Clinton losing support among key groups, especially Independents, who now favor Trump by 48% to 33%. Independents make up a weighted 27% of those answering the IBD/TIPP Poll – more than a quarter of the vote.

As noted on Monday, regardless of party, well more than 50% of all voters have consistently said they expected Hillary Clinton to win the election. On Sunday, that number dropped below 50% for the first time, to 49%. It fell further, to 46%, on Monday.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 01, 2016, 06:08:27 am
You just have to read the editorial to understand how objective the people behind this poll are.
First of all, "Just last week, Clinton appeared to be building an insurmountable lead in both the popular vote and the electoral college"?
Really guys? Just last week you were showing Trump leading Clinton. Unless of course you admit that your poll is crap and we should trust the other ones.

Second, they find that a majority of voters find Trump "honest and trustworthy". Not compared with Clinton but on his own right. There is literally not one poll to be even close to that, he usually polls as bad as her when it comes to that characteristic.

And third, they are talking about "the reopening of the FBI investigation regarding Clinton's e-mails" when nothing like that has happened, just parroting Jason Chaffetz's talking points.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 06:16:08 am
You just have to read the editorial to understand how objective the people behind this poll are.
First of all, "Just last week, Clinton appeared to be building an insurmountable lead in both the popular vote and the electoral college"?
Really guys? Just last week you were showing Trump leading Clinton. Unless of course you admit that your poll is crap and we should trust the other ones.

Second, they find that a majority of voters find Trump "honest and trustworthy". Not compared with Clinton but on his own right. There is literally not one poll to be even close to that, he usually polls as bad as her when it comes to that characteristic.

And third, they are talking about "the reopening of the FBI investigation regarding Clinton's e-mails" when nothing like that has happened, just parroting Jason Chaffetz's talking points.

Read PPP:s stupid Trump vs something-ridicolous question. Still no Red hacks bashing to be partisan that "fake" their data...


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: rafta_rafta on November 01, 2016, 06:17:24 am
The race has considerably tightened. Now it's upto the state wide polls in swing states


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: jaichind on November 01, 2016, 06:19:09 am
The fact that Clinton only leads Trump 43-40 in the Northeast is surprising.  If true this is very good news for Trump in PA.   Trump losing West 49-39 is also "good" news for Trump as that means Clinton has a lot of wasted votes.  Clinton leading Trump 48-33 among Hispanics is surprising.  If we adjust that to 58-23 then Clinton should be leading Trump by 3 but not 1 which I suspect is the true state of the race.  On the flip side 7% of the Black vote are for Other/Not sure makes me feel that most of them are hidden Trump voters.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: Ebsy on November 02, 2016, 01:49:19 am
King pointed out over on AAD that in order for this poll's crosstabs to make sense, the sample would have to be 79% White.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/2 - TIE)
Post by: Horned frogs :( on November 02, 2016, 05:08:37 am
11/2:

Trump - 44
Clinton - 44 (-1)
Johnson - 4
Stein - 2

2 way:
Trump - 44
Clinton - 44 (-1)


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/2 - TIE)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 06:02:45 am
1.3% points change in 4-way and 1.0% in 2-way.

4-way
Trump 44.4% (+0.7)
Hillary 44.0% (-0.6)
Johnson 4.1%
Stein 2.2%.

In the two-way poll
Trump  44.2% (+0.3)
Clinton 44.0% (-0.7)

http://www.investors.com/politics/clinton-and-trump-are-tied-with-election-just-5-days-away-ibdtipp-poll/

Quote
Trump has made gains among both independents (he's up 5 points to 46%) and Republicans (up four points to 88%) since Friday. What's more, 70% of voters now say they strongly back Trump (up from 65% on four days ago).

Voters also now view Trump more favorably than Clinton — 43% to 41% — and more honest and trustworthy — 50% to 41%.

Clinton's support has also strengthened as the election gets closer, with 65% saying they strongly support her, up from 62% on Saturday.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: jaichind on November 02, 2016, 07:56:38 am
King pointed out over on AAD that in order for this poll's crosstabs to make sense, the sample would have to be 79% White.

I did the math with today's numbers and I came up with an implied 78% White sample.  If we go with a 72% White sample instead you get a 4% lead for Clinton.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (10/31 - Clinton + 1/ Clinton +2)
Post by: StatesPoll on November 02, 2016, 08:01:38 am

10/28-11/1 IBD/TIPP

It is TRUMP +0.4%. :p


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/3 - TIE)
Post by: Horned frogs :( on November 03, 2016, 05:05:32 am
Another day, another tie on the 4 way and 2 way, decimals moved a little into a 0.1% Trump lead on 4 way and a 0.3% lead on 2 way for Clinton, but who care


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/3 - TIE)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 03, 2016, 05:36:22 am
Whoa! Take a look at the articles published at IBD along with this poll. It's like Breitbart-light.

"WikiLeaks Reveals How Billionaire 'Progressives' Run The Democratic Party"
(along with a photo of George Soros for those who didn't take the hint)

"Clinton Foundation Scandal"
  
"Good News: 35% Of Gov’t Workers Might Quit If Trump Wins"




Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/3 - TIE)
Post by: jaichind on November 04, 2016, 05:50:52 am
()

Still tied

Clinton   44
Trump    44
Johnson   4
Stein       2

At the decimal level Clinton did seems to gain from yesterday


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/3 - TIE)
Post by: jaichind on November 04, 2016, 05:53:19 am
The implied White share of the electorate seems to be 77%.  Clinton's gains seems to be related to a slow reshifting of the sample toward a more correct racial breakdown of the electorate.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/3 - TIE)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 04, 2016, 06:02:01 am
I see the delightful commentary of IBD continues.

"Pfizer Should Resist Doctors Without Borders' Bullying, For Its Own Sake — And For Ours"
 


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/3 - TIE)
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2016, 07:01:55 am
Still tied

()

Clinton   44
Trump    44
Johnson   5
Stein       2

A bit of a good news for Trump.  It seems Trump lost a bit of ground to Johnson but still remain only 0.5% behind Clinton.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/3 - TIE)
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 07:06:09 am
She leads 46-43 in the head-to-head.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/3 - TIE)
Post by: alomas on November 05, 2016, 07:48:41 am
Fortunately there are more candidates in the race ;)


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/3 - TIE)
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2016, 07:50:40 am
Fortunately there are more candidates in the race ;)

Well, it does give us some clues on how last minute tactical voting might go if there are going to be any.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/5 - TIE)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 06:15:19 am
Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point With 2 Days Left

Trump +1 in 4-way

Clinton +1,5 in 2-way

Quote
The readings for all candidates are the same in the unrounded IBD/TIPP poll data. A day earlier, Clinton led by 0.5 point.
In a head-to-head matchup excluding third-party candidates, Clinton is ahead by 1.5 points, 45.3% to 43.8%, but that's down from 2.6 points a day earlier.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/5 - TIE)
Post by: Wade McDaniel on November 06, 2016, 06:18:47 am
Trump Leads Clinton By 1 Point With 2 Days Left

Trump +1 in 4-way

Clinton +1,5 in 2-way

Quote
The readings for all candidates are the same in the unrounded IBD/TIPP poll data. A day earlier, Clinton led by 0.5 point.
In a head-to-head matchup excluding third-party candidates, Clinton is ahead by 1.5 points, 45.3% to 43.8%, but that's down from 2.6 points a day earlier.

Something tells me there's going to be more than just 2 candidates in the race on Tuesday.  We'll see though about these numbers.  A lot can happen.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/6 - Trump + 1)
Post by: jaichind on November 07, 2016, 06:52:02 am
()

Trump lead becomes 2

Trump       43
Clinton      41
Johnson      6
Stein          2


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/6 - Trump + 1)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 07, 2016, 06:52:53 am
Lol, wut?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/6 - Trump + 1)
Post by: SunSt0rm on November 07, 2016, 06:56:56 am
So 4-way it is
Trump 43.1%
Clinton 40.7%

but 2-way is
Clinton 43.1%
Trump 42.1%

Why the hell would 1% of the people vote for Trump if Johnson or Stein are on the ballot, but not vote on him if Johnson and Stein arent on the ballot. Doesnt make any sense!


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/6 - Trump + 1)
Post by: heatcharger on November 07, 2016, 06:59:56 am
It's gonna be a bloodbath when 538 updates their ratings.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/6 - Trump + 1)
Post by: jaichind on November 07, 2016, 07:01:02 am
It's gonna be a bloodbath when 538 updates their ratings.

Not really.  538 uses national polls to set trend and state polls to set level of support.  Will have tiny impact


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/6 - Trump + 1)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 07:01:54 am
Haha, what? But good news anyway for Trump ::)


Not really.  538 uses national polls to set trend and state polls to set level of support.  Will have tiny impact

The rating of IBD/TIPP


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/6 - Trump + 1)
Post by: heatcharger on November 07, 2016, 07:02:13 am
It's gonna be a bloodbath when 538 updates their ratings.

Not really.  538 uses national polls to set trend and state polls to set level of support.  Will have tiny impact

I'm not talking about their model, I'm saying after this election a lot of pollsters are going to have their ratings downgraded.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/6 - Trump + 1)
Post by: SunSt0rm on November 07, 2016, 07:24:07 am
((Harry Enten))) ‏@ForecasterEnten  8m8 minutes ago
IBD/TIPP is weird. They have Trump at 43% in the four-way, but 42% in the two-way? He loses support with fewer candidates asked? Weird.

I am not the only one, who find this very odd


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/6 - Trump + 1)
Post by: The Other Castro on November 07, 2016, 07:25:28 am
At least people can shut up about this junk being the most accurate pollster in the future.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/7 - Trump + 2)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 08, 2016, 02:41:09 am
Will the update today? Wounder if the find out that the race is at Clinton +4 ::)


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/7 - Trump + 2)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 08, 2016, 04:19:27 am
Final Election Day Update:

42.7 Trump
41.2 Clinton
  7.1 Johnson
  1.9 Stein
  2.0 Others
  5.0 Undecided

They then allocate the 5% undecided to make a final prediction:

45.0 Trump
43.4 Clinton
  7.6 Johnson
  2.0 Stein
  2.0 Others

http://www.investors.com/politics/ibd-tipp-presidential-election-poll


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/7 - Trump + 2)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 08, 2016, 04:21:47 am
They will very likely be 3-6% points off, but I have to give them the credit that they have balls to go with this :)

4-way: ('Not Sure' Allocated)
Trump   45.0%
Clinton  43.4%
Johnson  7.6%
Stein      2.0%
Other      2.0%

2-way:
Clinton 43.3%   
Trump  42.3%   
Other     5.3%
Not sure 9.0%


4-way: ('With Not Sure')
Clinton 41.2%   
Trump 42.7%   
Johnson 7.1%    (+2)!
Steing 1.9%   
Other 2.0%   
Unsure 5.0%


()


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: J. J. on November 08, 2016, 05:46:15 pm
I think they had Hillary up yesterday?


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: Seriously? on November 09, 2016, 02:28:50 am
Freedom poll and once again, probably closest to the most accurate this cycle.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: Lok on November 09, 2016, 02:30:16 am
HOW THE ACTUAL FK WAS A TRACKER THE MOST ACCURATE POLL?!


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread (11/7 - Trump + 2)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 09, 2016, 02:36:15 am
They will very likely be 3-6% points off, but I have to give them the credit that they have balls to go with this :)

Wow! Balls of steel!


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: ○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└ on November 09, 2016, 05:25:45 am
Technically they were too pro Trump.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 09, 2016, 05:33:58 am
Inside MOE.  Almost all other showed an embarrassing herding.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: SunSt0rm on November 09, 2016, 05:36:35 am
Clinton probably will win the popular vote


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: Abraham Washington on November 09, 2016, 05:36:39 am
Congrats IBD.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 09, 2016, 08:30:47 pm
as wrong as anyone else.....only the other direction.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: jaichind on November 09, 2016, 08:36:28 pm
as wrong as anyone else.....only the other direction.

Yeah.  Looks like the closest  will be Rasmussen (Clinton +2) or McClatchy/Marist (Clinton +1). 


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 09, 2016, 09:16:00 pm
as wrong as anyone else.....only the other direction.

Nope. The difference is that they didn't herd. That had race ~Tie during final week, and this was pretty close. Clearly, many pollster firm, thought that Clinton will surge (after 2nd letter???) and added a few points/herded to C+4-5. It is almost impossible that all polls had so small spread in their results.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: Congressman Dwarven Dragon on November 09, 2016, 11:40:10 pm
HOW THE ACTUAL FK WAS A TRACKER THE MOST ACCURATE POLL?!


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 10, 2016, 12:25:57 am
Uh... Clinton is going to win the popular vote by 1-2%. This poll was one of the worst.


Title: Re: IBD/TIPP Daily Tracking Poll thread FINAL - Trump + 1/ Trump + 2
Post by: rafta_rafta on November 10, 2016, 05:44:10 am
State level polls were wrong , national polls were 1-2% off just like in 2012 but in the other way