Talk Elections

Trump - 44%
Clinton - 42%
Johnson - 9%

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-The vast majority of Republicans – 85 percent  – say they will back their party’s nominee. But only 4 in 10 independents, a traditionally conservative voting bloc in Georgia, say they are behind Trump.

-Trump has built a solid lead among men, with a 50-35 margin, while women favor Clinton by a 48-37 vote. Some 64 percent of women have an unfavorable view of Trump, while 66 percent of men have a negative perception of Clinton.

-Almost one in five voters under 39 are backing Johnson’s third-party candidacy, while a majority of voters older than 65 support Trump.

-Only 3 percent of black voters are backing Trump. Nearly 90 percent are behind Clinton’s campaign.

-Fifty percent of Georgia voters give President Barack Obama a favorable approval rating in his final days in office. House Speaker Paul Ryan has more mixed returns: About one-third of voters give him positive reviews, and another 41 percent give him an unfavorable rating.

-A majority of Georgia voters – 56 percent – believe Clinton is qualified to serve as president. But almost two-thirds of voters don’t see her as “honest and trustworthy” – including nearly all Republicans and one-quarter of Democrats.

-More than half of Georgia voters say Trump is not qualified to lead the country, and 62 percent told pollsters he doesn’t have the temperament or personality to serve effectively in the White House.

-Two-thirds of Georgia’s voters say the country is on the wrong track, including 90 percent of Republicans.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/21/ajc-poll-trump-and-clinton-deadlocked-georgia/

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New Poll: Georgia President by Atlanta Journal Constitution on 2016-10-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1320161020210)

Summary: D: 42%, R: 44%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/21/ajc-poll-trump-and-clinton-deadlocked-georgia/)

Crosstabs?

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DELICIOUS AND SEXY POLL! 

If Georgia is a Tossup then NC must be...

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Just read that Georgia early voting is significantly up compared to a similar point of time in 2012. Seems like the poll corroborates it.

http://www.ajc.com/news/national/georgia-statewide-poll/
Compared to their October 2012, which nailed the 8 point race, he's underperforming the ATL exurbs and Metro ATL by ~10.

One problem I noticed here: their racial crosstabs are simply "black" (32%) and "white" (68%).  Whites were 61% in 2012 as defined by SoS and while I'm sure some of those people who were only categorized as "other" or "unknown" by SoS are in fact white, they're basically ignoring all of the non-black, non-white vote here. It's not huge by itself in sheer vote totals but when you're talking about even a small group (say, 5%) swinging from 80% R to 70% D, it matters. It's enough to take the race from Trump +2 to Clinton +3.

The black share is about one point too high in my opinion, but the fact that the other 5% or so of the electorate (that's not white neither in reality nor by SoS categorization) is missing more than cancels it out. Would still be Clinton +1.

Maybe they don't believe their own results and want to reserve the option of claiming last minute Clinton surge in GA :)

http://www.myajc.com/news/news/local-govt-politics/minority-voter-registration-surges/nsszT/
Since 2015

Black voter registration +21%
Asian registration +41%
Hispanic registration +46%
White registration +15%

Oh boy! What a realignment this election will be.

Really pulling for Clinton to win GA.

I'll look at the early voting locations on 10/29, to see whether the lines are too long. If so, then I'll just vote on 11/8.

Go now, we need your vote in case you get sick ;P

That 5% undecided will go at least 4-1 Trump. As long as Trump has a nominal lead in the GA polls, it's very hard to see him losing the state.

i also figure that trump is unlikely to lose GA.

but if he must use his dry coffins to save the state, he may lose NC, UT and AZ.

too many bases to defend and OH/IA seem more like toss-ups each day.

This isn't the first time you've asserted this, but trust me as someone who lives here that it's a very shaky assumption.  In any other year you'd likely be correct; but Trump is not a normal Republican candidate, and he turns off many of the automatic Republican voters in the Atlanta suburbs.  The level of enthusiasm for him in those areas is dramatically lower than that for Romney, McCain, etc.

I wouldn't assume that based on the polling. Blacks are more undecided than whites, women are more undecided than men, and Democrats/Republicans/Independents are equally undecided. That seems to be a good recipe for Clinton.

i can relate why women would be undecided (lot of cross-over potential) but blacks? don't think republicans usually get a lot of black votes in GA.

Easiest scenario in which Hillary wins GA is
                              Share   D     R     3rd
Non Hispanic Whites (59%) 27% 70% 3%
African Americas      (30%) 92% 7%   1%
Other Minorities       (11%) 54% 46%  0%

This gives Clinton a 1 point victory.

Haven't seen her close to 27% with whites in any poll though...

Come-on Georgia !
You can do it for Hillary !

http://media.cmgdigital.com/shared/news/documents/2016/10/21/30594_GA_Poll_FINAL_Banners_Likely_Voters.pdf

Crosstabs posted. Fun county breakdowns (super small subsamples though). Generally horrific for Trump.

Cobb is 50%C-50%T (Obama 43 Romney 56)
Dekalb is 92%C-8%T (Obama 82% Romney 21%)
Fulton 77%C-23%T (Obama 64% Romney 35%)

If you look at when undecideds have broke toward the GOP in the past (how many days before the election), then we're entering that period right now. If it happens, we're mere days away from seeing polls that would suggest Trump will win Georgia by as much (or more) as Romney won by in 2012.

Georgia is Lean R, according to the evidence. We got three polls and the margins are -2, -4, -4

Obama JA at 50% if Hillary matched that she'd be ahead comfortably.

Though i have a hard time seeing Trump get 44%--or even half that--among non-black ethnics.

That's what I was thinking

She doesn't necessarily need 27%. She can get by with as little as 23% potentially; even less if Johnson actually does well. As I always say:

http://www.cnn.com/election/2014/results/state/GA/senate/
Nunn got 92%, not 95%. Just thinking of the worst case scenarios... Same % of voters, but 92% gets her to 48.1%.

She can still win in that scenario though if Trump only gets 70% of the white vote (47.5%). That's a tough hurdle though, since McCain got 76% and Perdue got 74%, but maybe she can do it if enough GOP don't vote for him or vote Johnson/writein.

A followup story in today's AJC (http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/22/ajc-poll-why-georgia-republican-politicians-are-sticking-with-trump/) has some insight into why most Georgia GOP officials are sticking with Trump.