Talk Elections

http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/10/21/poll-clinton-increases-lead-in-florida/
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf

Clinton 49
Trump 45
Johnson 3
Stein 2

Goodbye Donald

That's a +1 bump for Clinton, and nearly the magic number.

TREMENDOUS!

And the senate race is a TIE!!

Great news for Lean D FL!!

Murphy has a slim hope for an upset.

Opinion Savvy has consistently had low numbers for Rubio.

WOW!  Simply tremendous!  Such a steady 4-5 pt lead!  

The jaws of an alligator are closing upon any chance for Donald Trump to be President of the United States. Practically a binary poll now, and Hillary Clinton is very close to 50.

The consistency in the polling numbers in both Florida and North Carolina has been amazing and excellent news for Clinton!

So, its a lead at the margin of error with almost no undecideds. If the election were held today, there's no fuggin' way for him.

my favorite thing about Florida polls is that they all show Clinton +4.

Unless there is hearding, that consistency is the best news to me.

Gravis
PPP
Quinnipiac
Opinion Savvy

That's 4 pollsters in a row now. 4 for 4!

just a C pollster with a lite pro-dem-house-effect according to 538 but the amount of small leads in NC and FL must be good for something.

997,123 votes in Florida so far...2012 got just short of 8.5 million total votes in florida. I'd say it is already being held and with these poll numbers = nearly impossible for him.

New Poll: Florida President by Opinion Savvy on 2016-10-20 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220161020254)

Summary: D: 49%, R: 45%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/OS-FL-General-10.21.16.pdf)

Let's go, Clinton!

The margin is consistent with other polls, but Third parties + undeciders are too low. But Opinion Savvy has always had it that way.

President Obama moved those poll numbers when he gutted Rubio like a fish yesterday

Goodbye Precious Sweet Marco Rubio!

This is statistically ridiculous, though. What's going on? Sheer dumb luck?

Ridiculousness is not a statistical concept. :P

OK, but from the lens of statistics, four polls with these sample sizes within one point is (subjectively) very unlikely. How's that :P

Two things that can give Trump supporters hope:

1. He is winning the I-4 Corridor by 8 (51-43%)
2. He is leading the early/absentee vote by 4 (51-47)

I am actually not that optimistic that Clinton will carry the state. Obama won when Democrats had a much larger registration edge in 2012. This will be an extremely close election and Trump may win here.

Lol,

Clinton is ahead of 2012 in the early vote and is leading in every poll, yet you think she is going to lose? lol

The margin of error on most state polls is about 4. That suggests that Hillary Clinton has about a 95% chance of winning Florida. Another poll corroborates this, so the chance that she wins Florida gets even higher -- around 97%.

1. The early votes cannot be changed. One might look at the demographics of early voters to project who wins. It could still be that the early voters trend toward Clinton and the later voters go for Trump. So what? Early or on election day, votes count just as much.

2. Donald Trump is quite possibly the most hated nominee for President by a major political party since George Wallace in 1968. If you think the disdain for Barack Obama was big due to race, wait till you see what people think of someone who grabs female crotches, enters women's changing rooms, brags about not paying taxes, and makes derogatory statements about people based on ethnicity and religion. Even if other groups aren't directly targeted (let us say Jews or Chinese-Americans), the well-educated among them recognize that the bigotry easily moves. Jews have good cause to distrust Islamophobia because Islamophobia has much in common with old-fashioned Jew-baiting. Chinese-Americans know that their status as a model minority hardly gives them safety in the event that something goes wrong in relations between the USA and China.

3. Republicans leading in the I-4 corridor  by 8%? Dubya won Florida that way by targeting NASCAR fans. That no longer works, as polls showing any Democratic leads in Florida have so indicated since 2008.

4. Hillary Clinton is ahead of Barack Obama at the same time in 2012. Four years ago, Florida was a tossup until Election Day.

5. There is no Republican (this time Trump) win of the Presidency without Florida. None. NONE!   

Well, at least one state is consistent:

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I buy the margin, but NOT the cross-tabs.

The OP is a renowned concern-troll