Talk Elections

PA: Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 3
FL: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 4, Stein 2
NC: Clinton 46, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 3* (Stein is not on the ballot in NC)
OH: Trump 43, Clinton 42, Johnson 6, Stein 3

Poll done for Auto Alliance/ESA, which I assume is a Republican-leaning group

http://www.allianceesapoll.com/new-poll-results.html

+6 in FL and +5 in NC on behalf of a Rep-leaning group, GG

Who would have thought that Rasmussen of all pollsters would have decided to snap the streak of 4 in Florida?

shocking for PA closer than florida & nc?

Tough to say what's gone wrong here, but their PA # is farther from the recent consensus than their NC/FL #s are.

This poll also has options to show what the numbers would look liked based largely under either 2014 or 2012 turnout levels. For 2012 levels, it shows:
NC: Clinton +7
OH: Clinton +3
FL: Clinton +8
PA: Clinton +5

loool@PA.

if clinton is going to win higher in NC and FL than pennsylvania, most polls have missed something big.

Maybe Rasmussen should explain how do these numbers match with their national polls.

Trump at 41 in PA/FL/NC. In a Rassy. Toast.

lolno, she's not up by only 3 in PA.

There are scenarios for strong Clinton and strong Trump turnout in all four states.

FL, Strong Clinton: Clinton 48, Trump 40, Johnson 4, Stein 2
FL, Strong Trump: Clinton 45, Trump 43, Johnson 4, Stein 2

NC, Strong Clinton: Clinton 47, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 3*
NC, Strong Trump: Clinton 44, Trump 43, Johnson 6, Stein 3*

OH, Strong Clinton: Clinton 44, Trump 41, Johnson 6, Stein 3
OH, Strong Trump: Trump 46, Clinton 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2

PA, Strong Clinton: Clinton 45, Trump 40, Johnson 6, Stein 3
PA, Strong Trump: Clinton 43, Trump 42, Johnson 6, Stein 3

OMG, this totally makes their national tracker look like a joke.

Either way, Trump can't win.

So their 2016 turnout model is more favorable to Trump than actual 2012 turnout.  This seems...odd.

Senate polls to indicate effects on downticket:

FL: Rubio 47, Murphy 39
NC: Burr 46, Ross 45
OH: Portman 49, Strickland 38
PA: McGinty 44, Toomey 41

Yep, you can throw the tracker in the trash.

Their state polling is in touch with reality though.

their state pollins has a pro-dem-bias, their national polling an even stronger pro-rep-bias.

I definitely don't buy Hillary doing better in NC/FL than PA. Those numbers look a bit D-friendly in NC/FL, and a bit R-friendly in OH/PA (more than a bit in PA.)

LOL, even the strong R turnout option for PA doesn't have Trump ahead!

They are considering a strong R turnout, but Trump's support comes from both Pubs and Dems.

Practically zero polling shows Trump gaining anything more than 6-7% of Dems. If anything, Clinton is winning crossover R's at a far higher rate

This. For every anti-trade dem that votes for Trump, there is a (somewhat) terrified republican voting for Clinton, Johnson, or McMullin.

NC voting to the left of PA might signal what is crudely known as a 'realignment'.

Maybe, but those Pubs might just stay home. Except for hacks.

i mean on the long run, a state like NC is going to be more democratic than PA but in this year?

not likely.

Shock poll tomorrow from Rassy: Trump +5 in Cali. lol

The PA number is somewhat low.
Otherwise the others are believable.

Looks like they have NH and NV polls coming out starting on Monday

Also it's a little hard to tell the tilt because it's a collaboration between an Auto group and a video games group...odd combo

This poll is brought to you by Mario Kart and Grand Theft Auto.

lol trash polls

but if we go under the assumption that Rasmussen is heavily R leaning, North Carolina and Florida look like they're LIKELY D

538 updated the pollster description for this. They replaced Rasmussen with "Auto Alliance/ESA" but kept the Pulse Opinion Research part. While Rasmussen does not appear to be involved with this poll, POR is responsible for conducting the poll and is the same group that conducts polls for Rasmussen.

Trump winning OH and PA and Clinton winning FL and NC would make for an entertaining election night.

I don't want "an entertaining election night." I want an election night that sees evil thoroughly defeated.

Agreed. May Crooked Hillary! face the just and righteous judgment of the American people early and often at the voting booth.

Unfortunately for you, this scenario will only exist in your dreams. 

Maybe it's because I'm a staunch partisan Democrat, but I don't find close general elections to be all that entertaining. I think a real genuine landslide wave election would be the most fun this year. The most entertaining election for me would be Hillary winning by double digits in the popular vote with over 400 EV, picking up 7-8+ Senate seats, and winning back the House.

LOL, junk. Pennsylvania voting to the right of Florida and North Carolina? I don't think so.

Exactly!