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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: x on October 23, 2016, 08:06:16 am



Title: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: x on October 23, 2016, 08:06:16 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-vaults-double-digit-lead-boosted-broad-disapproval/story?id=42993821

Likely Voters:

Clinton: 50
Trump: 38
Johnson: 5
Stein: 2


Women: 55 - 35
College educated white women: 62 - 30
Men: 44 - 41


Sample of 874 likely voters, October 20 - 22nd

-

Update (Nov2 - 5): Clinton+4 (4-way)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 23, 2016, 08:07:46 am
Omg


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 23, 2016, 08:08:08 am
I don't think she is up by this much, but her hitting 50 in the four way is devastating for Trump. 


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: Iosif on October 23, 2016, 08:08:16 am
(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: dspNY on October 23, 2016, 08:08:33 am
(Image Link)

This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: OkThen on October 23, 2016, 08:09:26 am
Wow, Trump only +4 among whites?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: mark_twain on October 23, 2016, 08:10:34 am
Great poll!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: Tender Branson on October 23, 2016, 08:12:08 am
It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: calvinhobbesliker on October 23, 2016, 08:12:55 am
It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

Like in 2008, TIPP will probably herd to the correct margin at the end.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: politicallefty on October 23, 2016, 08:13:50 am
Please, let this be true.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 23, 2016, 08:14:17 am
It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo aligns with NBC, Bloomberg and CBS. TIPP aligns with Rasmussen and the L.A Times tracker. Who doesn't know what their doing?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: x on October 23, 2016, 08:14:44 am
This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Should I change the title for this thread?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: dspNY on October 23, 2016, 08:16:39 am
This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Should I change the title for this thread?

I would make it a megathread, something like ABC/WaPo daily tracker


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 23, 2016, 08:17:54 am
This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Should I change the title for this thread?

I would make it a megathread, something like ABC/WaPo daily tracker

I dont think its a daily tracker though. Its a weekly tracker like SurveyMonkey and YouGov.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll: Clinton +12
Post by: john cage bubblegum on October 23, 2016, 08:20:12 am
From the article:

This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABC’s tracking survey later this week.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll: Clinton +12
Post by: Brittain33 on October 23, 2016, 08:21:03 am
Is this comparable to last week's Clinton +4 poll or is the methodology different?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll: Clinton +12
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 23, 2016, 08:21:20 am
From the article:

This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABC’s tracking survey later this week.

Oh lord, why?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: x on October 23, 2016, 08:21:53 am
Okies, well I'll just update the title as new polls come out then.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 23, 2016, 08:22:25 am
It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo's +3 Obama was close to Obama's margin of 3.9.
TIPP had +1 Obama, a 2.9 Republican bias.

If trend is anything, WaPo is more likely to be correct.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: afleitch on October 23, 2016, 08:22:49 am
On the 538 swingy with white college split, Clinton flips NC, GA , AZ and NE2 with a 49.7-38.7 vote share. With the white gender split those states flip as does IN, SC, MO, MT, MS with a 51.2-37.2 vote share.

And this is with generous non white subsamples in the poll.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll: Clinton +12
Post by: dspNY on October 23, 2016, 08:23:03 am
Other numbers:

2-way race: Clinton 53, Trump 41
Trump's handling of sexual assault: 24/69 disapprove
Clinton's private email server: 35/59 disapprove
Who won the 3rd debate: 52/29 Clinton
The vote is rigged: 39/59 disapprove
Trump's refusal to concede if he loses: 29/65 disapprove


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll: Clinton +12
Post by: psychprofessor on October 23, 2016, 08:25:15 am
From the article:

This is the first in what will be daily ABC News tracking poll reports from now to Election Day. The Washington Post will join ABC’s tracking survey later this week.

Oh lord, why?

They had one in 2012 and were the most accurate pollster :)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: Tender Branson on October 23, 2016, 08:27:09 am
It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo's +3 Obama was close to Obama's margin of 3.9.
TIPP had +1 Obama, a 2.9 Republican bias.

If trend is anything, WaPo is more likely to be correct.

But in 2008, TIPP was O+8 and WaPo was O+9, which balances things out.

The thing is more that they are 14% apart right now, when they showed relatively similar results the last 2 elections ...


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 23, 2016, 08:35:18 am
A tracking poll for the rest of us.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 23, 2016, 08:37:15 am
It seems (some) pollsters have no clue what they are doing this year.

Both WaPo and TIPP were pretty good in 2008 and 2012, but now they are 14 points apart ...

WaPo's +3 Obama was close to Obama's margin of 3.9.
TIPP had +1 Obama, a 2.9 Republican bias.

If trend is anything, WaPo is more likely to be correct.

But in 2008, TIPP was O+8 and WaPo was O+9, which balances things out.

The thing is more that they are 14% apart right now, when they showed relatively similar results the last 2 elections ...

1) TIPP is a red flag for me because they don't share their methodology in detail.
2) Comparing 2008 and 2012 is vastly different because cell phone use has skyrocketed by 2012.
3) Also, if Trump was up 2 nationally, he'd be doing better in swing state polls.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: heatcharger on October 23, 2016, 08:37:48 am
I've grown extremely skeptical of tracking polls this cycle, but it's true ABC/WaPo was quite accurate with it in 2012. It appears they cut out some of their normal questions to save money, which makes sense.

I wonder how 538 and friends will weight this considering it's an A+ polling outfit.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Arch on October 23, 2016, 08:39:06 am
What a thing of beauty. We need to see more polls though!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 23, 2016, 09:03:44 am
And oh. Didn't this poll show tightning to +4 a while back?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: ReapSow on October 23, 2016, 09:04:01 am
Mmmmmm...can't wait to see big headlines like  "MADAME PRESIDENT", "HILLARYSLIDE", "IT'S HER", "TRUMPED!", and "SHATTERED!" on November 9th.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 23, 2016, 09:06:32 am
Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 5%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 83%
Clinton 8%
Johnson 6%
Stein 1%

Indies
Clinton 45%
Trump 37%
Johnson 8%
Stein 4%

Trump in third place with blacks:
Clinton 82%
Stein 5%
Trump 3%
Johnson 2%

Overall crosstabs:
men: Clinton +3
women: Clinton +20
whites: Trump +4
blacks: Clinton +77 (over Stein)
Hispanics: Clinton +38
college grads: Clinton +25
non-college grads: Clinton +3
white college grads: Clinton +16
white non-college grads: Trump +19


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on October 23, 2016, 09:11:36 am
Keep in mind in this poll Trump id improving Romney's score with Hospanics, that is obviously not going to happen :)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: calvinhobbesliker on October 23, 2016, 09:17:59 am
Keep in mind in this poll Trump id improving Romney's score with Hospanics, that is obviously not going to happen :)
OTOH, Trump will probably win whites by more than 4.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 23, 2016, 09:22:10 am
Plugging this into 538's calculator, this could be enough to pick up GA, AZ, IN, MO, TX, and SC. AK and MS are also close.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 23, 2016, 09:41:27 am
Sorry, Trump, but it is over :(





Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 23, 2016, 09:44:04 am
Another detail to note: Johnson and Stein numbers are pretty stable, with this being the 3rd poll in a row from ABC/WaPo showing Johnson at 5%, and Stein's numbers wavering around 1-2%.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 23, 2016, 09:50:16 am


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 23, 2016, 10:49:00 am
So, of those 5% of undecideds, how many are going to the McMuffin? If 1 or 2% are. That makes 3% that are truly undecided and if a lot of them stay home, I think things can be pretty stable unless they can prove that Clinton truly stole/bought/rigged things or does or find Trump shouting n-r-this and n-r-that on tape...or that one of them has been truly connected to organized crime.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Maxwell on October 23, 2016, 11:06:36 am
oh my god this poll means it could be even more of a blowout than it already is oh my god


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 23, 2016, 11:10:05 am
oh my god this poll means it could be even more of a blowout than it already is oh my god

If Clinton is truly winning by double digits and Republican enthusiasm continues to drop as it did in this poll, the House really could be in play.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: republicanx on October 23, 2016, 11:10:21 am
Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Maxwell on October 23, 2016, 11:11:36 am
oh my god this poll means it could be even more of a blowout than it already is oh my god

If Clinton is truly winning by double digits and Republican enthusiasm continues to drop as it did in this poll, the House really could be in play.

I was focusing on their fantasy 25% of Hispanics for Trump, but yes also enthusiasm.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 23, 2016, 11:12:24 am
Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: republicanx on October 23, 2016, 11:13:45 am
Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 23, 2016, 11:14:57 am
Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

He absolutely could be losing by ~10 if he's also only up 3 in TX.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: heatcharger on October 23, 2016, 11:15:44 am
Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

ABC/WaPo had a tracking poll in 2012 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121104.html) and it was very accurate in the end. And yes, I could believe he's down 12 if he's tanking in traditional red states Texas, Arizona, and Indiana to name a few. Oh, and he's not doing any better than Romney in blue states.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: dspNY on October 23, 2016, 11:17:29 am
Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

ABC/WaPo had a tracking poll in 2012 (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/politics/polls/postabcpoll_20121104.html) and it was very accurate in the end. And yes, I could believe he's down 12 if he's tanking in traditional red states Texas, Arizona, and Indiana to name a few. Oh, and he's not doing any better than Romney in blue states.

Nate Silver compared the blue, red and swing states from 2012 and said Clinton was doing about 2 points better in the swing states, even in the blue states and NINE points better in the red states than 2012


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Maxwell on October 23, 2016, 11:18:16 am
Texas is the reason why Clinton's national leads seem inflated - she's pretty close there even as other swing states aren't budging as far.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 23, 2016, 11:18:24 am
The last 3 polls that are graded as "A+" by Nate Silver

ABC/WaPo +12 Clinton
Selzer +9 Clinton
Monmouth +12 Clinton


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: republicanx on October 23, 2016, 11:20:19 am
Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

He absolutely could be losing by ~10 if he's also only up 3 in TX.

Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 23, 2016, 11:23:16 am
Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

He absolutely could be losing by ~10 if he's also only up 3 in TX.

Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

We were talking about the national vote. You said "we can all agree he won't be losing by 12", I responded how he could be, you said "we aren't talking about national vote!" It's becoming pretty clear you aren't the sort worth responding to.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: heatcharger on October 23, 2016, 11:23:47 am
Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: republicanx on October 23, 2016, 11:31:06 am
Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.

And look where we r now lol. he got nothing done in 8 years and thats why he is leaving and stuck with another 4yrs of someone who doesn't belong in there, i'm voting trump. if the minority vote is down (which it is in most cases) trump will win. I'm only worried slightly about florida and nc atm


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Maxwell on October 23, 2016, 11:37:06 am
Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

He absolutely could be losing by ~10 if he's also only up 3 in TX.

Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

"only down 3 points in Florida" is literally devastating for Republicans. Obama didn't even win Florida by 3 points in 2008.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 23, 2016, 11:40:23 am
Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.

And look where we r now lol. he got nothing done in 8 years and thats why he is leaving and stuck with another 4yrs of someone who doesn't belong in there, i'm voting trump. if the minority vote is down (which it is in most cases) trump will win. I'm only worried slightly about florida and nc atm

Obama's current approval Gallup approval rating is at 57%. Better than Reagan at this point in time, on par with Clinton and Eisenhower. So most Americans disagree with you!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: republicanx on October 23, 2016, 11:40:36 am
Why are people (liberals) believing this poll when they don't knowledge any of the other trackers? Calling it a disaster for republicans but ignore the other tracking polls. Republicans are doing fine, if we lose we won't let hillary pass anything :)

Because ABC/Washington Post is a high quality poll, and the other trackers are not.

I think we can all agree trump won't be losing by 12 points if he's only down by 3 in florida if he was down like 8 points there i'd agree.

He absolutely could be losing by ~10 if he's also only up 3 in TX.

Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

"only down 3 points in Florida" is literally devastating for Republicans. Obama didn't even win Florida by 3 points in 2008.

gotta stay positive somehow :)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Arch on October 23, 2016, 11:41:08 am
Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.

And look where we r now lol. he got nothing done in 8 years and thats why he is leaving and stuck with another 4yrs of someone who doesn't belong in there, i'm voting trump. if the minority vote is down (which it is in most cases) trump will win. I'm only worried slightly about florida and nc atm

Nothing done?

Cuban embargo lifted
Internet accessibility saved
Marriage equality achieved
Insured % at its highest in history
Economy successfully recovered from greatest pit since the Great Depression
Nuclear proliferation curved peacefully
Unemployment at a low

Among many others. You can disagree with some of the things he's done, and he hasn't succeeded at everything he's aimed for, but to say he's done nothing is nothing short of disingenuous to say the least.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 23, 2016, 11:46:36 am
Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.

And look where we r now lol. he got nothing done in 8 years and thats why he is leaving and stuck with another 4yrs of someone who doesn't belong in there, i'm voting trump. if the minority vote is down (which it is in most cases) trump will win. I'm only worried slightly about florida and nc atm

Nothing done?

Cuban embargo lifted
Internet accessibility saved
Marriage equality achieved
Insured % at its highest in history
Economy successfully recovered from greatest pit since the Great Depression
Nuclear proliferation curved peacefully
Unemployment at a low

Among many others. You can disagree with some of the things he's done, and he hasn't succeeded at everything he's aimed for, but to say he's done nothing is nothing short of disingenuous to say the least.

Welfare at the highest rate than ever before
Poverty at the highest rate than ever before
America has gotten weaker
Putin is a better leader
Middle Class is declining
No one respects our police and troops
Obama created ISIS
Illegals have increased
Unemployment is at 42% like Trump says
America is more divided than ever
More refugees than ever before
Benghazi

and you still think America is better now?! Shame on you!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Yank2133 on October 23, 2016, 11:47:11 am
Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.

And look where we r now lol. he got nothing done in 8 years and thats why he is leaving and stuck with another 4yrs of someone who doesn't belong in there, i'm voting trump. if the minority vote is down (which it is in most cases) trump will win. I'm only worried slightly about florida and nc atm

Even if this were true( and it is not.....), Trump is losing college educated whites and he needs to do better with white voters then Romney (59%) did in 2012 to have a shot at winning.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: republicanx on October 23, 2016, 11:47:43 am
Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.

And look where we r now lol. he got nothing done in 8 years and thats why he is leaving and stuck with another 4yrs of someone who doesn't belong in there, i'm voting trump. if the minority vote is down (which it is in most cases) trump will win. I'm only worried slightly about florida and nc atm

Nothing done?

Cuban embargo lifted
Internet accessibility saved
Marriage equality achieved
Insured % at its highest in history
Economy successfully recovered from greatest pit since the Great Depression
Nuclear proliferation curved peacefully
Unemployment at a low

Among many others. You can disagree with some of the things he's done, and he hasn't succeeded at everything he's aimed for, but to say he's done nothing is nothing short of disingenuous to say the least.

I'm gay and i don't care about that... it should be left up to the states. Unemployment is at a "low" because people left the labor force if you know much about economics.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Arch on October 23, 2016, 11:52:56 am
Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.

And look where we r now lol. he got nothing done in 8 years and thats why he is leaving and stuck with another 4yrs of someone who doesn't belong in there, i'm voting trump. if the minority vote is down (which it is in most cases) trump will win. I'm only worried slightly about florida and nc atm

Nothing done?

Cuban embargo lifted
Internet accessibility saved
Marriage equality achieved
Insured % at its highest in history
Economy successfully recovered from greatest pit since the Great Depression
Nuclear proliferation curved peacefully
Unemployment at a low

Among many others. You can disagree with some of the things he's done, and he hasn't succeeded at everything he's aimed for, but to say he's done nothing is nothing short of disingenuous to say the least.

I'm gay and i don't care about that... it should be left up to the states. Unemployment is at a "low" because people left the labor force if you know much about economics.

I don't care if you don't care about it, but I'm gay as well and, and I do because I like the idea of being considered an equal human being in the eyes of the law. Whether or not you care about that does not erase the achievement.

Okay on the unemployment, and ignoring everything else does not make the points disappear. You said he had done nothing, and I objectively showed you that he has. Concede the point, and stop trying to weasel out of it.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 23, 2016, 11:53:48 am
Another tracker? Crap!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Maxwell on October 23, 2016, 11:54:04 am
Labor force participation is low because the people who are leaving the workforce are - you guessed it - old people retiring. We have more old people than ever.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: dspNY on October 23, 2016, 11:54:19 am
I'm believing the Clinton double digit leads now because the Hill put out an article quoting Conway saying Trump wants another debate. No candidate who is winning the election would ask for another debate, especially after getting humiliated in the first three


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 23, 2016, 12:25:45 pm
Okies, well I'll just update the title as new polls come out then.

Virginia,
I think you should allow the honor of updating this thread, to our Atlas member, Seriously.
Seriously would look forward to seeing, and being a part-of, such great numbers everyday until Nov 8th.
(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Anonymous on October 23, 2016, 12:26:24 pm
Beautiful poll!

Am I reading it wrong, or is she winning MEN?!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Anonymous on October 23, 2016, 12:29:46 pm
Okies, well I'll just update the title as new polls come out then.

Virginia,
I think you should allow the honor of updating this thread, to our Atlas member, Seriously.
Seriously would look forward to seeing, and being a part-of, such great numbers everyday until Nov 8th.
(Image Link)

Motion seconded, although Seriously will probably do nothing but spin it as a win for Trump by proving that she's rigging the polls and buying off the pollsters to produce these numbers.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on October 23, 2016, 12:38:52 pm
DOMINATING
OO
M  M
I     I
N     N
A       A
T         T
I            I
N             N
G               G


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: Shadows on October 23, 2016, 01:57:15 pm
(Image Link)

This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Bryan is supporting Jill Stein. Atleast Clinton's corrupt supporters shouldn't be using Bryan's signature chant!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo: Clinton +12
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 23, 2016, 01:58:17 pm
(Image Link)

This is actually a tracking poll. They had one for the last few weeks of the 2012 election too

Bryan is supporting Jill Stein. Atleast Clinton's corrupt supporters shouldn't be using Bryan's signature chant!
He's supporting that nut and her terrorist apologist running mate?

Geez oh man.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: dspNY on October 23, 2016, 02:21:18 pm
The most interesting demographic crosstab is this one:

Non-college white women: Trump +9

This is where I thought the collapse in Trump's numbers would occur after the first debate and his general maltreatment of women. He was winning this demo by a lot more before the first debate


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 23, 2016, 02:44:36 pm
The most interesting demographic crosstab is this one:
Non-college white women: Trump +9
This is where I thought the collapse in Trump's numbers would occur after the first debate and his general maltreatment of women. He was winning this demo by a lot more before the first debate

I'm not surprised.
When your typical "Non-college white woman" trump supporter resembles/does this ...

(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: iBizzBee on October 23, 2016, 04:17:38 pm
Losing? How is he losing who cares about the national vote. we have two weeks to go and he's only down 3 points in florida. Hillary still has the advantage but anything can happen, nobody can be too confident, just like in 2008 when mccain thought he had florida in the bag...

Um... what? He's losing because he's objectively losing in every state that matters -- Pennsylvania, Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, and now even Arizona.

And nobody thought McCain had Florida in the bag, so I don't know what alternate universe you live in. Even if that were true, it would not have mattered in the slightest bit because Obama won in an electoral landslide.

And look where we r now lol. he got nothing done in 8 years and thats why he is leaving and stuck with another 4yrs of someone who doesn't belong in there, i'm voting trump. if the minority vote is down (which it is in most cases) trump will win. I'm only worried slightly about florida and nc atm

Nothing done?

Cuban embargo lifted
Internet accessibility saved
Marriage equality achieved
Insured % at its highest in history
Economy successfully recovered from greatest pit since the Great Depression
Nuclear proliferation curved peacefully
Unemployment at a low

Among many others. You can disagree with some of the things he's done, and he hasn't succeeded at everything he's aimed for, but to say he's done nothing is nothing short of disingenuous to say the least.

I'm gay and i don't care about that... it should be left up to the states. Unemployment is at a "low" because people left the labor force if you know much about economics.

Are you the same self-hating loon who was posting as 'voter1993'? Also, your english is so bad that are you sure Drumpf won't be looking at you for deportation as well? Better watch out for the deportation squads.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 23, 2016, 04:45:01 pm
Quote
The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: NOVA Green on October 23, 2016, 04:48:52 pm
Quote
The previous ABC/Post poll found a sharp 12-point decline in enthusiasm for Trump among his supporters, almost exclusively among those who’d preferred a different GOP nominee. Intended participation now has followed: The share of registered Republicans who are likely to vote is down 7 points since mid-October.

This helps to partially explain what we are seeing in Texas, and likely to some extent Arizona as well, even without discussing the surge in Latino enthusiasm and motivation as we roll towards a two week election day countdown.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: EpicHistory on October 24, 2016, 12:19:11 am
+12 for Clinton when she's only up 3-5% in Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan? Not a chance, throw this in the dumpster.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 24, 2016, 12:20:33 am
+12 for Clinton when she's only up 3-5% in Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan? Not a chance, throw this in the dumpster.

Because she's not up 3-5 in MI, and if internals are to believed, Trump is getting slaughtered in most Democratic-leaning swing states. It's absolutely plausible.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: EpicHistory on October 24, 2016, 12:24:20 am
Because she's not up 3-5 in MI, and if internals are to believed, Trump is getting slaughtered in most Democratic-leaning swing states. It's absolutely plausible.

MRG found her at 5% in Michigan, and that doesn't answer the issue of North Carolina and Florida. If she is up by 12%, she's going to not only be leading in both of those by double digits but she should also be leading in Ohio and Iowa firmly. Every other poll we've got recently says she's not in any of these cases. As for internals, give me a break.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 24, 2016, 12:26:23 am
Because she's not up 3-5 in MI, and if internals are to believed, Trump is getting slaughtered in most Democratic-leaning swing states. It's absolutely plausible.

MRG found her at 5% in Michigan, and that doesn't answer the issue of North Carolina and Florida. If she is up  by 12%, she's going to not only be leading in both of those by double digits but she should also be leading in Ohio and Iowa firmly. Every other poll we've got recently firmly says she's not in any of these cases. As for internals, give me a break.

a) NEVER believe any polling of MI... regardless of what it says.

b) this is not going to be a universal swing election, so no, there's no way of saying xx should be xx if this is the result.

You're welcome to think otherwise, but I don't think she's up 12, but close to it.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: EpicHistory on October 24, 2016, 12:32:03 am

a) NEVER believe any polling of MI... regardless of what it says.

b) this is not going to be a universal swing election, so no, there's no way of saying xx should be xx if this is the result.

You're welcome to think otherwise, but I don't think she's up 12, but close to it.

Even if we completely ignore MI, 3-5% in Florida and North Carolina is completely inconsistent with being up 12 nationally. It is, however, compatible with the ARG +7 and Morning Consult +6 we got recently. As for comparing it to other stuff, the polls we're getting from swing states don't show her being up 12, and the most recent Illinois and New York polls show Trump doing about average for a Republican in the former and a bit better in the case of the latter. So basically, there is no basis for a +12 HRC margin right now. None of the polls are showing where these mythical votes are coming from.  


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 24, 2016, 12:33:48 am

a) NEVER believe any polling of MI... regardless of what it says.

b) this is not going to be a universal swing election, so no, there's no way of saying xx should be xx if this is the result.

You're welcome to think otherwise, but I don't think she's up 12, but close to it.

Even if we completely ignore MI, 3-5% in Florida and North Carolina is completely inconsistent with being up 12 nationally. It is, however, compatible with the ARG +7 and Morning Consult +6 we got recently. As for comparing it to other stuff, that simply doesn't fly this election. The polls we're getting from swing states don't show her being up 12, and the most recent Illinois and New York polls show Trump doing about average for a Republican in the former and a bit better in the case of the latter. I haven't looked to see if there has been a recent California poll, but I sincerely doubt there has been enough of a swing to make it a +12 election.

So basically, where you accept or not, there is no basis for a +12 HRC margin right now. None of the polls are showing where these mythical votes are coming from. 

No one really knows how these play out.

I agree that it's not likely a 12 point lead, but there are a weird number of shifts that could take place among groups and states that could lead to this, but we're looking at closer to 8-10%.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: EpicHistory on October 24, 2016, 12:39:01 am

No one really knows how these play out.

I agree that it's not likely a 12 point lead, but there are a weird number of shifts that could take place among groups and states that could lead to this, but we're looking at closer to 8-10%.

There's no mixture of states one can make to get even a +10 result with Trump doing average in New York and Illinois, being ahead in Ohio, and having close races in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. This is also ignoring all the other recent polls which have the race far different from what is being portrayed from this tracker.  


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 24, 2016, 12:40:06 am

No one really knows how these play out.

I agree that it's not likely a 12 point lead, but there are a weird number of shifts that could take place among groups and states that could lead to this, but we're looking at closer to 8-10%.

There's no mixture of states one can make to get even a +10 result with Trump doing average in New York and Illinois, being ahead in Ohio, and having close races in North Carolina, Pennsylvania and North Carolina. This is also ignoring all the other recent polls which have the race far different from what is being portrayed from this tracker.  

There is. But that's fine.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: EpicHistory on October 24, 2016, 12:44:18 am

Then please enlighten me as to where these mythical votes are, because just saying "there is" is not a valid argument. There is no way Clinton can be up +12 when the Republican is doing average in Democratic strongholds like New York, Illinois and California (Last poll I saw for there) and have close races in the Swing states. The facts, and math in this case, do no lie.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Ronnie on October 24, 2016, 12:51:53 am

Then please enlighten me as to where these mythical votes are, because just saying "there is" is not a valid argument. There is no way Clinton can be up +12 when the Republican is doing average in Democratic strongholds like New York, Illinois and California (Last poll I saw for there) and have close races in the Swing states. The facts, and math in this case, do no lie.

Well, for one thing, he's incredibly weak in Texas, a state Romney won by 16 points.  Also, not many polls have been conducted in the rockies and plains, but it seems likely that he'll underperform the numbers one would expect from a generic R in them.  We already know that he's going to do far worse than Mitt Romney did in Utah and Idaho.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Wade McDaniel on October 24, 2016, 12:57:10 am
Tracking polls should be treated separately.  There's tracking polls with Trump up by a point or two.  Average them and Clinton is up 5-6 like the real polls show.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 24, 2016, 12:57:58 am

Then please enlighten me as to where these mythical votes are, because just saying "there is" is not a valid argument. There is no way Clinton can be up +12 when the Republican is doing average in Democratic strongholds like New York, Illinois and California (Last poll I saw for there) and have close races in the Swing states. The facts, and math in this case, do no lie.
Obama was ahead in the RCP average in Florida by just 1.8. While he did win the state by 2.8, he won  by 7.2 points nationally.

Polls in individual states can also be way off. Obama lost half his pre election lead in Iowa and doubled his Nevada margin.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 24, 2016, 12:58:42 am
Tracking polls should be treated separately.  There's tracking polls with Trump up by a point or two.  Average them and Clinton is up 5-6 like the real polls show.
This is not a daily tracking poll.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: EpicHistory on October 24, 2016, 12:59:05 am
Well, for one thing, he's incredibly weak in Texas, a state Romney won by 16 points.  Also, not many polls have been conducted in the rockies and plains, but it seems likely that he'll underperform the numbers one would expect from a generic R in them.  We already know that he's going to do far worse than Mitt Romney did in Utah and Idaho.

The Rocky and Plains states are the most underpopulated states in the Union, and being weak in Texas would not explain +12 (Especially when he is doing almost 10% better in New York and is close in states like Florida and Pennsylvania).


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Lok on October 24, 2016, 01:00:36 am
+12 for Clinton when she's only up 3-5% in Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan? Not a chance, throw this in the dumpster.
How do you explain Texas then?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 24, 2016, 01:00:59 am
Well, for one thing, he's incredibly weak in Texas, a state Romney won by 16 points.  Also, not many polls have been conducted in the rockies and plains, but it seems likely that he'll underperform the numbers one would expect from a generic R in them.  We already know that he's going to do far worse than Mitt Romney did in Utah and Idaho.

The Rocky and Plains states are the most underpopulated states in the Union, and being weak in Texas would not explain +12 (Especially when he is doing almost 10% better in New York and is close in states like Florida and Pennsylvania).
He's not doing ten points better in New York nor is he close in Pennsylvania. Plus, Florida has been consistenly +3-4 D, something not seen in decades. Not even in 2008 or 1996.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: EpicHistory on October 24, 2016, 01:04:20 am

I already have. Even a +3 Trump result there will not explain a +12 result for Clinton when Democratic states are showing about normal results for Republicans and the Swing states are close. +6 Clinton I can buy, but +12 is a pipe dream for the Red Avatars.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 24, 2016, 01:05:32 am
So many things...

No evidence that Trump is doing better than Romney in New York.

Trump is not close in Pennsylvania and is likely losing by nearly double digits. Same with Michigan.

Losing 10% in Texas is going to hurt your national popular vote. So is getting blown out in California by a historic margin, as seems to be the case.

Trump is doing worse than Romney in a number of mid-sized states (Maryland, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona...) by about 5 points.  Romney lost in 2012 by 4 points. 4+5 is very close to 12, especially with margin of error.

McMullin could take an additional 300 to 400k votes from Trump in Utah and Idaho, compared to Romney.

All this adds up.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 24, 2016, 01:07:04 am

I already have. Even a +3 Trump result there will not explain a +12 result for Clinton when Democratic states are showing about normal results for Republicans and the Swing states are close. +6 Clinton I can buy, but +12 is a pipe dream for the Red Avatars.
You have several major national polls putting her up in the range of +7-12. Excluding daily trackers, that jumps to an average of 9.9.

Clinton is greatly overperforming in blue states, Trump is underperforming in a lot of red states. Just not enough to lose them.

...Yet.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: EpicHistory on October 24, 2016, 01:08:15 am
He's not doing ten points better in New York nor is he close in Pennsylvania. Plus, Florida has been consistenly +3-4 D, something not seen in decades. Not even in 2008 or 1996.

Sienna Poll has Clinton only up 24% there, while Rasmussen and Quinnipac have PA at +3 and +6 respectively. As for Florida, that is a recent development. Back in September, if you will recall, Trump pulled ahead for a good chunk of the month. As well, Iowa and Ohio being in the Trump camp would counteract such a lead there.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: EpicHistory on October 24, 2016, 01:12:15 am
You have several major national polls putting her up in the range of +7-12. Excluding daily trackers, that jumps to an average of 9.9.

Clinton is greatly overperforming in blue states, Trump is underperforming in a lot of red states. Just not enough to lose them.

...Yet.

You've got the ARG, Morning Consult, YouGov and I think an NBC poll all showing 4-7%, which I accept. The IBD and LA Times trackers, however, show a Trump lead. To my knowledge, this is the only tracker which shows a Clinton lead and averaging out these trackers, as was noted upthread, puts it at around +6, which I believe is the actual number. As for Clinton over performing in Blue States, where are these mythical results? New York she is doing worse than Obama, average in Illinois and and California. The swing states are close. The math just doesn't add up to +12.



Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 24, 2016, 01:18:05 am
You have several major national polls putting her up in the range of +7-12. Excluding daily trackers, that jumps to an average of 9.9.

Clinton is greatly overperforming in blue states, Trump is underperforming in a lot of red states. Just not enough to lose them.

...Yet.

You've got the ARG, Morning Consult, YouGov and I think an NBC poll all showing 4-7%, which I accept. The IBD and LA Times trackers, however, show a Trump lead. To my knowledge, this is the only tracker which shows a Clinton lead and averaging out these trackers, as was noted upthread, puts it at around +6, which I believe is the actual number. As for Clinton over performing in Blue States, where are these mythical results? New York she is doing worse than Obama, average in Illinois and and California. The swing states are close. The math just doesn't add up to +12.


+12 is a bit high, surely. But let's take a look at some recent polls:

Quote
   ABC/WAPO Clinton +12
IBD/TIPP Tracking   10/17 - 10/22   783 LV   3.6   42   43   Trump +1
Quinnipiac    Clinton +6
LA Times/USC Tracking Tie
Economist/YouGov Clinton +4
FOX News   Clinton +7
Bloomberg    Clinton +9
Reuters/Ipsos   Clinton +4
Monmouth Clinton +12
CBS News   Clinton +11
NBC News/SM Clinton +8
ABC News/Wash Post   Clinton +4
NBC News/Wall St. Jrnl Clinton +10

Parsing these data points shows a clear seperation. Daily Tracking is a major outlier, as it was in 2012. Most pollsters rated highly by 538, with the exception of Reuters, show a national lead at 7% or above.

There's also been an 8 point swing since the last ABC/WaPo poll, seen near the bottom. Clinton is doing above 6 points nationally, only daily trackers are dragging this down.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: BlueSwan on October 24, 2016, 01:27:48 am
Why all the arguing?

The polls that currently have Trump leading the race are totally inconsistent with the state polling. And so is this poll that has Clinton up by 12.

Surely, the sober conclusion is that Clinton is up by about 6 points, give or take a point or two. Maybe with a bit more upside than downside. A Clinton lead by about 4-9 points sounds right to me at this moment and seems consistent with most of the state polling.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Ebsy on October 24, 2016, 02:01:51 am
To all the dips[Inks]ts in this thread, tell me the difference:

(Image Link)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 24, 2016, 02:04:13 am
So many things...

No evidence that Trump is doing better than Romney in New York.

Trump is not close in Pennsylvania and is likely losing by nearly double digits. Same with Michigan.

Losing 10% in Texas is going to hurt your national popular vote. So is getting blown out in California by a historic margin, as seems to be the case.

Trump is doing worse than Romney in a number of mid-sized states (Maryland, Georgia, North Carolina, Indiana, Missouri, Arizona...) by about 5 points.  Romney lost in 2012 by 4 points. 4+5 is very close to 12, especially with margin of error.

McMullin could take an additional 300 to 400k votes from Trump in Utah and Idaho, compared to Romney.

All this adds up.

If you look at the RCP average for polls conducted in October (or the only 1-2 polls conducted in October if there's not enough for an average) you get this swing map from 2012 -> 2016:

()

>30% shade: 1-5 points
>50% shade: 5-10 points
>90% shade: 10+ points

So yeah, it's a pretty clear picture of Trump underperforming Romney overall, even if you assume most of the gray states swing to him.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 24, 2016, 02:14:01 am
Well, twelve percent is a little off I guess. I don’t think she’s winning by double digits in the end (though I hope so because that could deliver the house). More likely six or seven percentage points. Nevertheless, this poll likely confirms his pretty weak numbers in TX. If you’re greatly underperforming here, that sinks your national PV substantially. Let alone small states like UT, AK, MT or ID were he's weak, but Mr. Drumpf is also doing poorly in GA, NC and MO while he is not doing better than Romney in larger Dem states like CA, NY and NJ.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Ronnie on October 24, 2016, 08:19:48 am
No horserace numbers today, but they did release some extra crosstabs:

Affirmative support:
Clinton 56%
Trump 41%

Strong Enthusiasm:
Clinton 52%
Trump 49%

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: HokeyDood on October 24, 2016, 08:26:35 am
SUUUUUUUUUUUUUH-WEET SASSY MOLLASEY!!!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 24, 2016, 08:49:03 am
+12 for Clinton when she's only up 3-5% in Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan? Not a chance, throw this in the dumpster.
Where are you getting 3-5% in Michigan? And yeah, FL/NC are usually 5 or so points to the right of the nation (see:2012). This makes perfect sense considering MOE. Now, it's a tracker, which is a perfectly valid reason to dump it. But otherwise the number checks out


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Kalimantan on October 24, 2016, 09:29:42 am
To all the dips[Inks]ts in this thread, tell me the difference:

(Image Link)

(Image Link)

I'll have a go :) Romney was at 46-48 in all the 2012 polls, Trump is at 41-44 in all the 2016 ones. The difference between Clinton+12 and Trump +1 is really just Clinton's number. And Trump seems stuck in an unenviable position.

The second thing you can take from that is the continued strength of third-party polling this late in the game, which wasn't there in 2012. Will it hold up in two weeks time? Will it revert to Trump as NeverTrumpers crack, will it stick or will it flock to Hillary as some of the other polls suggest it might?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 24, 2016, 10:01:56 am
I'll have a go :) Romney was at 46-48 in all the 2012 polls, Trump is at 41-44 in all the 2016 ones. The difference between Clinton+12 and Trump +1 is really just Clinton's number. And Trump seems stuck in an unenviable position.
Very intresting! I didn't notice it untill you said it.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Arch on October 24, 2016, 11:48:22 am
There's also the #atorover50 for HRC that wasn't there for Obama (with the exception of one poll).


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: King on October 24, 2016, 12:00:39 pm
"Waiting for NeverTrumpers to break" is stupid for multiple reasons.

One, a majority of Johnson/Stein support is Obama 2012/Bernie 2016 support, which is not going to consider Trump at all. They're more likely to not vote than to vote Trump.

Two, early voting is happening right now. Each passing day nothing changes for The Donald exponentially increases Hillary's chances of winning. If Trump doesn't take the lead in the RCP average by this time next week (and he won't) he will have 0% chance of winning, even if it is revealed Hillary is really an alien lizard person who eats babies.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 24, 2016, 08:25:08 pm
Wait so this isn't a tracking poll??


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 24, 2016, 08:25:43 pm
Wait so this isn't a tracking poll??


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: heatcharger on October 24, 2016, 08:30:28 pm
Wait so this isn't a tracking poll??

It seems to be a 3-day moving average, so they'll probably release the next sets of numbers on the 26th, 29th, 2nd, 5th, and 8th. Just a guess.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Maxwell on October 24, 2016, 08:30:40 pm
+12 for Clinton when she's only up 3-5% in Florida, North Carolina, and Michigan? Not a chance, throw this in the dumpster.

can't read michigan polls? sad!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Ronnie on October 24, 2016, 08:31:08 pm
It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

Quote
As first reported Sunday, the first three nights of the 2016 ABC News tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, found Clinton with her biggest lead of the campaign in vote preference, 50-38 percent over Trump among likely voters. That’ll be updated in tomorrow’s report.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 24, 2016, 10:26:59 pm
It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

Quote
As first reported Sunday, the first three nights of the 2016 ABC News tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, found Clinton with her biggest lead of the campaign in vote preference, 50-38 percent over Trump among likely voters. That’ll be updated in tomorrow’s report.

So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Ronnie on October 24, 2016, 10:28:49 pm
It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

Quote
As first reported Sunday, the first three nights of the 2016 ABC News tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, found Clinton with her biggest lead of the campaign in vote preference, 50-38 percent over Trump among likely voters. That’ll be updated in tomorrow’s report.

So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).

They did release new numbers today, though.  Just not horserace numbers:

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 24, 2016, 10:37:46 pm
It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

Quote
As first reported Sunday, the first three nights of the 2016 ABC News tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, found Clinton with her biggest lead of the campaign in vote preference, 50-38 percent over Trump among likely voters. That’ll be updated in tomorrow’s report.

So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).

They did release new numbers today, though.  Just not horserace numbers:
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf

I understand that they released other numbers on other topics.
But a "daily" tracker poll, will ask the "main" question everyday, which in turn means that you have a newly computed number everyday (though it may be the same number as the day before).
So if this is a running 3-day tracker poll, you subtract the data from the oldest day, you add the new data from the new day polling you just completed, recompute and there you have the new number for release.
So this is what is odd to me.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: nirvanayoda on October 24, 2016, 10:57:56 pm
It is one, Lief.  From today's update:

Quote
As first reported Sunday, the first three nights of the 2016 ABC News tracking poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, found Clinton with her biggest lead of the campaign in vote preference, 50-38 percent over Trump among likely voters. That’ll be updated in tomorrow’s report.

So, the website reads today (Mon Oct 24th) that they will show the next updated numbers "tomorrow," which will be on Tue Oct 25th.
I don't understand why, but it seems that they are skipping today (Mon Oct 24th) with new numbers in this "daily" tracker.
Strange (Am I missing something ? Does someone have a clear explanation for this ?).

They did release new numbers today, though.  Just not horserace numbers:
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a22016ElectionTrackingNo.2.pdf

I understand that they released other numbers on other topics.
But a "daily" tracker poll, will ask the "main" question everyday, which in turn means that you have a newly computed number everyday (though it may be the same number as the day before).
So if this is a running 3-day tracker poll, you subtract the data from the oldest day, you add the new data from the new day polling you just completed, recompute and there you have the new number for release.
So this is what is odd to me.

It's possible that today's results looked outlier-ey in one direction or the other and, therefore, they didn't release.  I hope that's not the case, as that would make me question the integrity of their poll.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 25, 2016, 06:17:51 am
UPDATE:

10/20-10/23: Clinton +12 (2-way and 4-way)
Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38%
Johnson - 5%
Stein - 2%

Clinton - 53%
Trump - 41%

All numbers are unchanged.

(Image Link)

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/stressed-election-youve-company-poll/story?id=43024209&cid=abcnp_tco


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Eraserhead on October 25, 2016, 06:21:49 am
I happen to think all of these tracking polls are garbage.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 25, 2016, 08:29:54 am
I happen to think all of these tracking polls are garbage.

Agreed.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 25, 2016, 08:50:25 am
I happen to think all of these tracking polls are garbage.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: Ronnie on October 25, 2016, 09:37:09 am
Not all tracking polls are created equal.  If Clinton is leading by 7 in NC, then a 12 point national lead is certainly possible.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-22)
Post by: Sir Mohamed on October 25, 2016, 09:38:50 am

Absolutely. Though I wish it would be true this time. Just imagine the orange-skinned clown’s face when he loses by twelve points nationally.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 25, 2016, 10:38:28 am

Agree.
I'm just happy that it is "garbage" on the high-plus advantage for Hillary.
This way it offsets the garbage from IBD/TIPP and Rasmussen, in poll averaging.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on October 25, 2016, 10:44:48 am
There's nothing about tracking polls in and of themselves that would make them worse than normal polls. The question is whether or not their methodology is sound. What do we know about this one's?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 25, 2016, 11:37:59 am
Tracking polls are fine, it's just silly to pay attention to daily fluctuations. I think the way SurveyMonkey does it, releasing a result once a week, is better.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 25, 2016, 11:40:37 am
Tracking polls are find, it's just silly to pay attention to daily fluctuations. I think the way SurveyMonkey does it, releasing a result once a week, is better.

This ABC almost seems to be a hybrid.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 25, 2016, 11:41:36 am
Tracking polls are find, it's just silly to pay attention to daily fluctuations. I think the way SurveyMonkey does it, releasing a result once a week, is better.
The first time I agree with Lief :)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: Alcon on October 26, 2016, 06:08:04 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/dead-heat-congress-clintons-advantage-poll/story?id=43047979

Clinton 49% (-1)
Trump 40% (+2)
Johnson 5%
Stein 2%

Generic congressional ballot D+1


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 26, 2016, 06:10:04 am
Wow that's a huge difference between Clinton lead ( + 9) and Generic lead for democrats (+1)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 26, 2016, 06:18:27 am
Wait, I'm confused. Why did they skip Monday if this is a daily tracker?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 26, 2016, 06:19:21 am
2-way numbers: Clinton 51%, Trump 43%.

Looks like this is going to be a daily updating 4-day tracking poll. Today's poll was from October 21-24.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +12 (oct 20-23)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 26, 2016, 06:21:55 am
(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +9 (oct 21-24)
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 27, 2016, 06:07:51 am
https://twitter.com/ryanstruyk/status/791596547725201413
Clinton 48 Trump 42 today, Clinton + 6 (Oct 22-25)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +9 (oct 21-24)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 27, 2016, 06:10:32 am
Continuing the trend of a Trump recovery with Republicans, while Clinton stays about the same.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on October 27, 2016, 11:59:39 am
But there's "no tightening," I thought??

::)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on October 27, 2016, 12:02:37 pm
But there's "no tightening," I thought??

::)

The lead is insurmountable. Worrying about 'tightening' is absurd when there is a) an electoral firewall; and b) no collapse in Clinton's numbers - her floor is still above his ceiling.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on October 27, 2016, 12:07:09 pm
But there's "no tightening," I thought??

::)

The lead is insurmountable. Worrying about 'tightening' is absurd when there is a) an electoral firewall; and b) no collapse in Clinton's numbers - her floor is still above his ceiling.

Not absurd when she was +9 to +12 previously and flirting with a small but hopeful possibility of helping Democrats take the House.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 27, 2016, 12:10:30 pm
But there's "no tightening," I thought??

::)

MFW I completely ignore the recent Clinton hold or gain in the Hart/Suffolk/AP-GFK/PPP/YouGov polls to make a bad tightening joke:




Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: elcorazon on October 27, 2016, 12:10:55 pm
But there's "no tightening," I thought??

::)

The lead is insurmountable. Worrying about 'tightening' is absurd when there is a) an electoral firewall; and b) no collapse in Clinton's numbers - her floor is still above his ceiling.
problems with this theory:
1. There is still a little bit of time for people to change - numbers are closer than what would make me comfortable.
2. wikileaks/ clinton foundation/ e-mails - dumb voters can't be underestimated.
3. vote is not popular - it only takes a small shift for states like FL, NC, NV, OH, IA to go for Trump and then the margin is razor thin enough that some small region could swing it in any one state pretty much. remember despite all the firewall talk, if the election is a tie, Trump is more likely to win than Clinton.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: TC 25 on October 27, 2016, 01:12:59 pm
Momentum for Trump.  Cuts a 12-point lead in half in three days. Ahead by this time next week?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Arch on October 27, 2016, 01:14:36 pm
Momentum for Trump.  Cuts a 12-point lead in half in three days. Ahead by this time next week?

I think this is more a case of regression to the norm. All of the other polls don't indicate of such a thing, but if you want to believe this, then go ahead.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 27, 2016, 01:15:07 pm
How about we all realize the poll was an outlier and now has corrected than make other assumptions.  That may be better for you all.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: HokeyDood on October 27, 2016, 01:16:59 pm
The amount of dog sweat in this thread is reaching flash flood levels.  There is no tightening in the aggregate.  For every +5 Clinton poll there is a +9 and a +12.  Outliers on the low side are +3-4.  Outliers on the high side are +14-15.  Put on doggy deodorant and calm down.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Ebsy on October 27, 2016, 01:35:38 pm
Momentum for Trump.  Cuts a 12-point lead in half in three days. Ahead by this time next week?
lol


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Buh her emails! on October 27, 2016, 01:52:39 pm
Momentum for Trump.  Cuts a 12-point lead in half in three days. Ahead by this time next week?

Beet? Is that you old buddy?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: LimoLiberal on October 28, 2016, 06:07:32 am
10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2016, 06:09:29 am
10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She probably hasn't... but we'll see how the other polls line up.

But I assume this will send some of our more delicate posters into some kind of tail-spin.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 28, 2016, 06:13:15 am
10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't. Hence why tracking polls suck. Its best to poll over a set period of time and average the numbers. Some days will be R-friendly, some D-friendly, thats why you average and get a topline.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: HokeyDood on October 28, 2016, 06:13:44 am
10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 28, 2016, 06:19:28 am
10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.
There is virtually no difference between trackers/non-trackers.

It is not pollster's fault, that Dems are not capable to average ::)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2016, 06:20:52 am
10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.
There is virtually no difference between trackers/non-trackers.

It is not pollster's fault, that Dems are not capable to average ::)

Sassy doesn't suit you.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: HokeyDood on October 28, 2016, 06:21:24 am
10/27: 48-44 in the 4way, 50-45 in the two way.

How tf has hillary lost 8 points in less than a week?

She hasn't.  It's a tracker and trackers are typically horrible.
There is virtually no difference between trackers/non-trackers.

It is not pollster's fault, that Dems are not capable to average ::)

Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: alomas on October 28, 2016, 06:23:17 am
She was never 12 points ahead, it was an outline result then. More likely she was around 8 but there's no doubt Trump is gaining. CNN - 5 points, Fox - 3 points, ABC/WP - 4 points. Sounds true and quite encouraging.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 28, 2016, 06:32:21 am
She was never 12 points ahead, it was an outline result then. More likely she was around 8 but there's no doubt Trump is gaining. CNN - 5 points, Fox - 3 points, ABC/WP - 4 points. Sounds true and quite encouraging.

Pew - 6 points
Suffolk - 9 points
NBC - 9 points
AP -15 points

Sounds quite encouraging.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2016, 06:33:33 am
She was never 12 points ahead, it was an outline result then. More likely she was around 8 but there's no doubt Trump is gaining. CNN - 5 points, Fox - 3 points, ABC/WP - 4 points. Sounds true and quite encouraging.

Pew - 6 points
Suffolk - 9 points
NBC - 9 points
AP -15 points

Sounds quite encouraging.

I mean, it just sounds true as well... doesn't it?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 28, 2016, 06:41:51 am
Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: alomas on October 28, 2016, 06:42:54 am
RCP says the average is 4.5 not 9.75. And that's including three of those polls.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2016, 06:45:43 am
Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 28, 2016, 06:46:09 am
RCP says the average is 4.5 not 9.75. And that's including three of those polls.

RCP also includes daily updates of the L.A times tracking poll, Rasmussen tracking poll and IBD tracking poll to skew the average. The best aggregate is Huffington post f.y.i.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 28, 2016, 06:47:29 am
It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: bilaps on October 28, 2016, 06:48:46 am
RCP says the average is 4.5 not 9.75. And that's including three of those polls.

RCP also includes daily updates of the L.A times tracking poll, Rasmussen tracking poll and IBD tracking poll to skew the average. The best aggregate is Huffington post f.y.i.

The best aggregate being one that fits your narrative. Earthquake coming in Hillary world. Prepare yourself.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 28, 2016, 06:48:55 am
Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.

Yep, thats abit racist.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2016, 06:49:49 am
It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

The trackers are generally skewing lower, and the main polls, higher.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 28, 2016, 06:53:19 am
It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

The trackers are generally skewing lower, and the main polls, higher.
Yeah a good amount of polls have fit into that range though, CNN, Fox News, Reuters/Ipsos, Yougov, Pew, NBC/Surveymonkey. It seems like the outliers are polls like Gravis, Rasmussen, and USC on the down side and AP, NBC, and USA Today on the upside.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 28, 2016, 06:55:24 am
Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.
It was a responce to very offensive (:'()  "Stop boofing drugs."
Would be nice if you condemn it as well? :'(:'(:'(

Otherwise, it is a little bit hypocritical, don't you think so?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 28, 2016, 06:56:25 am
It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2016, 06:58:13 am
Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I say this, as a friendly warning, don't play with this stuff.
It was a responce to very offensive (:'()  "Stop boofing drugs."
Would be nice if you condemn it as well? :'(:'(:'(

Otherwise, it is a little bit hypocritical, don't you think so?

No. One is not nice, but a colloquialism "what are you smoking" etc, the other is racially loaded.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 28, 2016, 06:59:59 am
It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 28, 2016, 07:01:52 am
It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

Actually, if you look at the polling from 2008, the polls are actually very similarly.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 28, 2016, 07:02:17 am
It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

I know, but pollsters herding their numbers to save their reputations is a constant recurrence in American politics.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 28, 2016, 07:08:25 am
The main difference between now and 2008 is whether or not the slow downward trend for Clinton's lead continues, in 2008 the last minute polls had him surge and the final result for him was actually -0.3% from the RCP average, this year we likely we have 1 more major poll coming out from Fox, NBC, etc.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 28, 2016, 07:10:48 am
It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?
Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

Actually, if you look at the polling from 2008, the polls are actually very similarly.
In what way? Marginwise? Yes, since Hillary is about +6-7 right now.

My point was though that you cannot blindly say: Obama under/overperformed polls in state X ( or nationally in 12) and won election, so will Clinton. We might see the same pattern though, and yeah, Clinton higly likely win this election.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 28, 2016, 07:11:50 am
The main difference between now and 2008 is whether or not the slow downward trend for Clinton's lead continues, in 2008 the last minute polls had him surge and the final result for him was actually -0.3% from the RCP average, this year we likely we have 1 more major poll coming out from Fox, NBC, etc.

Obama's average didnt have to deal with 3 daily tracking polls either.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 28, 2016, 07:12:14 am
It looks like the main polls and daily trackers are converging on a 3-6 point lead for Clinton, she seems likely to beat Obama 2012 margins but not Obama 2008 margins, pretty much what has been forecasted on here for the past few weeks, no?

Obama was getting +3 and +5 polls the last week in October of 2008 too. Pollsters will herd on a margin next week.
USA is not Austria/Brexit-2016 and Hillary is not Obama 08/12.

I know, but pollsters herding their numbers to save their reputations is a constant recurrence in American politics.
Just two last elections http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/election-update-the-polls-disagree-and-thats-ok/



Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 28, 2016, 07:25:33 am
From the ABC article:  Shifts of this size have occurred in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post tracking polls in two previous elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton went from a 19- to a 10-point lead over Bob Dole in five days. In 1992, a particularly wild ride, Bill Clinton went from +14 to +7 against George Bush in four days; back to +19 in the next four days; back to +11 in four more days; and then dropped further, to +3, toward the end of the race. Final estimates in both polls were accurate.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 28, 2016, 07:55:54 am
We've clearly seen this season that if Trump goes 7 days without feuding with a Khizr Khan or Alicia Machado, some Republican voters' embarrassment fades and they "rally 'round" their candidate.

Clinton's going to win regardless, it's just about some Senate and House races at this point.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 28, 2016, 08:33:16 am
So we are right back where we were pre-3rd debate, not awful. It really does appear it's more Republicans coming home than Clinton losing support.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Seriously? on October 28, 2016, 10:07:57 am
From the ABC article:  Shifts of this size have occurred in ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post tracking polls in two previous elections. In 1996, Bill Clinton went from a 19- to a 10-point lead over Bob Dole in five days. In 1992, a particularly wild ride, Bill Clinton went from +14 to +7 against George Bush in four days; back to +19 in the next four days; back to +11 in four more days; and then dropped further, to +3, toward the end of the race. Final estimates in both polls were accurate.
Of course the final polls are accurate. After the media tried to manipulate public opinion first. The early voting data does not support any D+9 or D+12 narrative or whatever nonsense this poll started with.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Ebsy on October 28, 2016, 10:14:53 am
As usual, trackers are junk.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 28, 2016, 11:31:53 am
As usual, there is no difference between trackers and non-trackers. None. Literally none. I mean it ::)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: HokeyDood on October 28, 2016, 12:46:52 pm
Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I dear say, drug-boofer, I am a resident of an affluent suburb and an alumnus of the prestigious Rutgers University.  I am also in a fraternity whom many a therapist are a member of.  Shall I call to see if I can get you an appointment for your destructive drug boofing?   


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Ebsy on October 28, 2016, 12:49:33 pm
As usual, there is no difference between trackers and non-trackers. None. Literally none. I mean it ::)
Stupidity abounds.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on October 28, 2016, 12:59:58 pm
Free-fall, it seems.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Ebsy on October 28, 2016, 01:01:39 pm
Get a grip.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +6 (oct 22-25)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 28, 2016, 01:14:29 pm
Stop boofing drugs.  Trackers often ask the same group of people over and over throughout the campaign.
Lol, no, uneducated ghetto-resident!

I dear say, drug-boofer, I am a resident of an affluent suburb and an alumnus of the prestigious Rutgers University.  I am also in a fraternity whom many a therapist are a member of.  Shall I call to see if I can get you an appointment for your destructive drug boofing?   
We both know, you're not ::)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 29, 2016, 06:03:35 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/shift-electorates-makeup-tightens-presidential-contest-poll/story?id=43142198 Clinton 47, Trump 45 (Clinton + 2 ) in the 4 way today.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 06:17:02 am
Oh, Trump might have a chance after all.

Looking forward to more polls to confirm.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: bilaps on October 29, 2016, 07:14:55 am
Wow, abc only +2 now and IBD +4, look at Hillary supporters for having a new favourite poll


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 29, 2016, 07:16:44 am
This makes no sense.

As I've said, pollsters seem to have no clue what they are doing ...

How can you go from Hillary+13 to Hillary+2 in just a matter of days ?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 29, 2016, 07:18:06 am
wasn't +12 before, isn't +2 right now.

it just has killed all the magic and the trust of ABC/WAPO.....


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 29, 2016, 07:19:38 am
Its too soon for any email effect to show so this is all ABC.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: afleitch on October 29, 2016, 07:23:53 am
It may mean they are struggling to weigh it correctly. All trackers, even more Hillary friendly ones initially seem to like moving down towards a tied race/Trump ahead. Launching it this late was always a risk.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 07:27:49 am
It may mean they are struggling to weigh it correctly. All trackers, even more Hillary friendly ones initially seem to like moving down towards a tied race/Trump ahead. Launching it this late was always a risk.

What is so special with trackers, you mean? Are they more difficult to weigh, you mean?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 29, 2016, 07:46:02 am
Interesting also that Trump leads Indys by 16 in the WaPo tracker now and by 7 in the TIPP poll.

Which could mean that even if the early voting numbers are looking favourable for Hillary (more Dems voting early) it won't tell us much about the overall state of the race if the Indys are strongly for Trump ...


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 29, 2016, 07:50:54 am
(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: jaichind on October 29, 2016, 07:53:23 am
Funny how ABC/WaPo and IBD/TIPP are heading in opposite directions.  Just 3 days ago it was ABC/WaPo at Clinton +12 and IBD/TIPP was at Clinton +1.  Now it is Clinton +2 and Clinton +4 respectively.  I guess this is convergence toward the mean.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 08:04:35 am
Interesting also that Trump leads Indys by 16 in the WaPo tracker now and by 7 in the TIPP poll.

Which could mean that even if the early voting numbers are looking favourable for Hillary (more Dems voting early) it won't tell us much about the overall state of the race if the Indys are strongly for Trump ...
Intresting thought, actually. I have no clue, if you're right, but the  fact that unaffiliated voters have increased more than all other groups is intriguing...


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: jaichind on October 29, 2016, 08:12:37 am
A lot of it I think has to do with the fact that both candidates tends not to be that popular even with their supporters.  So as the ebb and flow of the news narrative voters for both candidates switch from indicating support for their candidate to indicating they are undecided or will not vote.  Most likely or not  most of them will vote and vote for their candidate.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: BlueSwan on October 29, 2016, 09:09:53 am
Well, this teaches us a lesson in statistical variance, but still....from +12 to +2 in a few days with no real news (before emails) is quite something.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Ronnie on October 29, 2016, 10:03:02 am
Ugh, and this is all before Comey's announcement.  The poll numbers next week might look ugly.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 29, 2016, 10:18:10 am
Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 10:24:41 am
Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120

So Clinton always been just up 2% or probably less? ::)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: dspNY on October 29, 2016, 10:25:23 am
Well, this teaches us a lesson in statistical variance, but still....from +12 to +2 in a few days with no real news (before emails) is quite something.

That means their likely voter model is terrible


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 29, 2016, 10:29:16 am
Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120

So Clinton always been just up 2% or probably less? ::)
No, but it shows that it really doesn't know what the number is.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 10:30:46 am
It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 29, 2016, 10:32:21 am
It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 10:35:07 am
Its the likely voter screen. Apparently the screen for voter intention is causing the shifts.

https://twitter.com/nickgourevitch/status/792332697708421120

So Clinton always been just up 2% or probably less? ::)
No, but it shows that it really doesn't know what the number is.
They use presumably about the same model that always. The model that gave them A+ rating on 538. We don't have any evidence that it wouldn't work this election as well, do we?

And is it not hypocritical that Red Hacks always talk about LV, when they don't like results? Why did LV screen look good for, when this polls showed C+12?

As I always say: Average and move on. Average every single poll. Or just use 538/Upshot/HuffPost.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 10:37:02 am
It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Just don't like hypocrisy.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 29, 2016, 10:37:53 am
It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Just don't like hypocrisy.
I see none, just a sad troll who wants to get noticed by people.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 10:40:10 am
It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Just don't like hypocrisy.
I see none, just a sad troll who wants to get noticed by people.

I see no racism from police against Blacks, just a sad trolls protesting to get interviewed by CNN instead of working hard.

It is ok, when we do it!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 29, 2016, 10:42:37 am
It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Just don't like hypocrisy.
I see none, just a sad troll who wants to get noticed by people.

I see no racism from police against Blacks, just a sad trolls protesting to get interviewed by CNN instead of working hard.

It is ok, when we do it!
Yep, a troll.  Go off and troll someplace else.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: HagridOfTheDeep on October 29, 2016, 11:00:46 am
Yeah, so basically what we can conclude from the polls is that no pollster really has a good idea of who's going to turn out, but also that there simply are not enough people willing to vote for Trump to put him over the top unless Hillary voters turn out in numbers lower than their lowest of low projections.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 11:13:33 am
It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Nate is apparantly is a sad troll as well :D
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792396374042087424




EDIT: and one more https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792398796583997441
Quote
When a poll shows big swings, it's often a sign the pollster trusts its data -- a good thing to do -- instead of herding or self-censoring.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 29, 2016, 11:17:58 am
It is hilarious that Trumpers Red hacks I see on twitter are now ignoring this so called most accurate poll ever and are pumping up the ABC IBD/Tipp poll now, which a week ago was a complete joke to them.
Agreed.
Why such trolling on your part.  Noting better to do?

Nate is apparantly is a sad troll as well :D
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792396374042087424




EDIT: and one more https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792398796583997441
Quote
When a poll shows big swings, it's often a sign the pollster trusts its data -- a good thing to do -- instead of herding or self-censoring.
The same Nate Silver who didn't trust his data in the primaries, and now is over-correcting for the general?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Maxwell on October 29, 2016, 11:18:35 am
Yeah, so basically what we can conclude from the polls is that no pollster really has a good idea of who's going to turn out, but also that there simply are not enough people willing to vote for Trump to put him over the top unless Hillary voters turn out in numbers lower than their lowest of low projections.

yep. In my mind, it's either a small Clinton popular vote win with the slight possibility of a Trump Electoral college win, or a large Clinton popular vote win.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 11:20:29 am
And one more: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792399653660655616

Quote
People badly underestimate how much noise can be introduced by sampling error in any individual poll. That's why you look at averages.

Nate Silver is sayint exactly what I've been saying.

Average and move on. But Atlas experts digs deep into each single poll and, even worse, in small subgroups and do "analysis", lol.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 29, 2016, 11:22:15 am
Yeah, so basically what we can conclude from the polls is that no pollster really has a good idea of who's going to turn out, but also that there simply are not enough people willing to vote for Trump to put him over the top unless Hillary voters turn out in numbers lower than their lowest of low projections.

yep. In my mind, it's either a small Clinton popular vote win with the slight possibility of a Trump Electoral college win, or a large Clinton popular vote win.
That's why you vote early. So you don't forget. :)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 11:23:49 am
The same Nate Silver who didn't trust his data in the primaries, and now is over-correcting for the general?
Before the primaries. He gave up directly after Iowa/NH more or less. But it was 16 dudes, and polls are generally pretty unstable there.

But yeah, he was wrong. Though, it has nothing to do with this tweet, has it?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread: Clinton +4 (oct 23-26)
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 29, 2016, 11:26:26 am
The same Nate Silver who didn't trust his data in the primaries, and now is over-correcting for the general?
Before the primaries. He gave up directly after Iowa/NH more or less. But it was 16 dudes, and polls are generally pretty unstable there.
But he didn't give up, he kept trying to say he was right, until he made a fool of himself and his site, now he is trying to over-correct the record.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Hammy on October 29, 2016, 12:21:42 pm
This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 12:29:25 pm
This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.
In what way did this poll indicate it?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Buh her emails! on October 29, 2016, 12:52:44 pm
Lol at all this bed wetting.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: JJC on October 29, 2016, 01:06:53 pm
Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Arch on October 29, 2016, 01:08:12 pm
Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

??? I suggest you go look at the early vote thread with actual facts before you spew innuendo.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 29, 2016, 01:11:46 pm
lol


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 29, 2016, 01:15:44 pm
Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

In every state where they polled voters who have already voted, Clinton is winning by larger margins than Obama did 4 years ago


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: JJC on October 29, 2016, 01:20:05 pm
Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

??? I suggest you go look at the early vote thread with actual facts before you spew innuendo.

Okay.

Overall State – Latest Florida Early Mail Voting as well as Early Voting (which started on 10/24) of 10/27

◊ MAIL: 46,235 (+9,874 from 10/26) more registered Republicans have returned an Early Mail-in-Ballot as of 10/26 {+2.9% Lead up from 2.5% on 10/26 (+0.4%)}

Voted-by-Mail (Returned)

♦ Rep: 677,907 (+71,763 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 631,672 (+61,889 from 10/26)
Other: 40,982 (+3,972 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 258,824 (+29,338 from 10/26)
Total Returned: 1,609,385 (+166,962 from 10/26)

#Trump(Rep): 42.1% (+0.1% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 39.2% (-0.3% from 10/26)
Other: 2.5% (-0.1% from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 16.1% (+0.2% from 10/26)

◊ EARLY VOTE : 34,510 (+3,879 from 10/26) more registered Democrats have Voted Early as of 10/26 (+4.0% Lead down from 5.2% on 10/26 {-1.2%})

Early Voting (Only)

♦ Rep: 336,299 (+110,337 from 10/26)
♦ DEM: 370,809 (+114,216 from 10/26)
Other: 20,052 (+6,522 from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 136,899 (+47,626 from 10/26)
Total Voted: 864,059 (+278,701 from 10/26)

#Trump(Rep): 38.9% (+0.3% from 10/26)
#HRC(Dem): 42.9% (-0.9% from 10/26)
Other: 2.3% (same from 10/26)
No Party Affiliation: 15.8% (+0.5% from 10/26)

NOTE: 16 Counties don’t start Early Voting until Saturday, October 29th. I looked at the Vote-by-Mail (Returned) for each County where the voting begins on the 29th and they had the following distribution:

#Trump(Rep): 40,748
#HRC(Dem): 30,304
Other: 2,888
No Part Affiliation: 12,082

Dade County:

◊ 2016 General Mail-in-Ballots

♦ Republicans – 60,694
♦ Democrats – 72,162
Other – 1,987
Independents – 34,404
Total Returned – 169,247

◊ 2016 General Early Voting

♦ Republicans – 29,441
♦ Democrats – 51,336
Other – 1,282
Independents – 21,158
Total Voted – 103,217

2012 Election Results Miami-Dade County

B. Obama (i) Dem – 61.6% Total Votes – 540,776
M. Romney GOP – 37.9% Total Votes – 332,602
G. Johnson Lib – 0.3% Total Votes – 2,270
J. Stein Grn – 0.1% Total Votes – 606

Hillary at 55.3% is doing 6 points worse than Obama did in 2012 at 61.6%.  Meanwhile Trump at 44.7% is doing 7 points better than Romney did in 2012 with 37.9%.

NC

2016 – D 46%, R 29%, I 25% (we are BEATING the spread from 2012 {Romney won the state by 2.5 points})
2012 – D 47%, R 29%, I 21%

https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/27/update-florida-and-north-carolina-early-voteballot-data-show-advantages-for-donald-trump/


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Hammy on October 29, 2016, 01:22:06 pm
This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.
In what way did this poll indicate it?

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a72016ElectionTrackingNo7.pdf (http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a72016ElectionTrackingNo7.pdf)

Quote
Loosely affiliated or reluctant Clinton supporters look less likely to vote, perhaps given
their sense she can win without them – a supposition that looks less reliable today.

Second point on page two.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 29, 2016, 01:24:09 pm
JJC, your mistake is comparing numbers now to final numbers.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 29, 2016, 01:32:46 pm
LOL, what a junky poll. I could maybe buy a collapse of this magnitude if it was post-emails, but for no reason? Completely ridiculous. They should be embarrassed.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 29, 2016, 01:34:33 pm
Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

"Trump is inevitable, look at these cherry picked stats from FL/NC!"

Uh...you know that FL/NC are must win states for TRUMP, not Hillary, right?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Arch on October 29, 2016, 01:35:46 pm
Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

"Trump is inevitable, look at these cherry picked stats from FL/NC!"

Uh...you know that FL/NC are must win states for TRUMP, not Hillary, right?

Not to mention she's doing better in these states overall than in previous years.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Oakvale on October 29, 2016, 01:39:09 pm
Shocked beyond words that Deplorable Steve and pals don't understand early vote data.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: PaperKooper on October 29, 2016, 01:40:46 pm
Why do you democrats overreact so much after bad polls?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 29, 2016, 01:44:41 pm
Why do you democrats overreact so much after bad polls?

They do because the other candidate is a fascist demagogue that threatens American democracy and the safety of all minorities and political dissidents. A reasonable fear, if an necessary one since current numbers are fine.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 29, 2016, 01:49:08 pm
This poll could mean two very opposite things: either a tightening of the race or, as the poll indicated some Clinton voters felt their vote wasn't needed for Clinton to win, that she could get a bump from the Comey scandal by pushing those people to vote.
In what way did this poll indicate it?

http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a72016ElectionTrackingNo7.pdf (http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a72016ElectionTrackingNo7.pdf)

Quote
Loosely affiliated or reluctant Clinton supporters look less likely to vote, perhaps given
their sense she can win without them – a supposition that looks less reliable today.

Second point on page two.
Ok, thanks. I read wrong pdf :-[


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 06:22:20 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-trump-turnout-critical-poll/story?id=43159639
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a82016ElectionTrackingNo8.pdf

Clinton 46% (-1)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  46% (+/-)


Quote
EMAILS – In earlier ABC News tracking poll results, a broad 60 percent of likely voters
disapproved of how Clinton has handled the email issue, including three in 10 of her own
supporters – and 93 percent of Trump’s. Nearly all of them disapproved strongly, and that was
before Comey revived the issue Friday.

Today, a small number of Clinton’s supporters, 7 percent, say the matter makes them less likely
to support her. About one in seven in some of her key support groups, such as Democrats (13
percent) and liberals (15 percent), say so, rising much higher among groups already predisposed
not to vote for her, including 47 percent among conservatives and 52 percent among Republicans
and evangelical white Protestants alike


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on October 30, 2016, 06:28:55 am
Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on October 30, 2016, 06:29:26 am
Guys, it's over. Clinton is being trounced right now in early voting for every swing state except Colorado.

Trump was surging even before the reopened FBI investigation. And his supporters are way more energized.

Trump will win.

Umm... no.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: politicallefty on October 30, 2016, 06:30:58 am
Lol, I've watched this poll everyday and ever since the first narrowing, I've predicted every one since then. Can you tell me what caused the drop from a 12% lead to an 8% lead and every narrowing since? No, you really can't. If you cannot explain such a dramatic shift in the race, I'd say there is something wrong with the poll (and do keep in mind that this dramatic shift was happening well before Friday's FBI announcement).


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 06:31:33 am
Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Either way, there are gong to be a lot of pollsters with ostrich egg on their faces. But this one is especially bad.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 30, 2016, 06:39:32 am
This and IBD/TIPP have caused the 4 way Clinton lead to fall to +3.4 now


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 06:42:09 am
Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 30, 2016, 06:44:01 am
Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.
It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 06:45:20 am
Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Wait... they changed their model? Ugh.
It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

That's brave of them.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 06:49:25 am
It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

Where? I can't find it.

Quote
Langer Research diagnoses results across a range of likely voter models. Fifteen such models currently are in use, projecting turnout estimates ranging from 43 to 70 percent of the voting age population. All show essentially the same results using the last four nights of data.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 30, 2016, 06:51:08 am
It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

Where? I can't find it.

Quote
Langer Research diagnoses results across a range of likely voter models. Fifteen such models currently are in use, projecting turnout estimates ranging from 43 to 70 percent of the voting age population. All show essentially the same results using the last four nights of data.
They did it 3 days ago or so


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 30, 2016, 06:53:09 am
The head to head matchup is unchanged at 49-46 Clinton. Looking at early vote numbers this measure looks to be more accurate since Johnson's and Stein's percentages in the early vote are way below what they are in public polls


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 06:54:39 am
It said in the article they changed their turnout model because they had Dems doing better in advantage than in 2012 and 2008

Where? I can't find it.

Quote
Langer Research diagnoses results across a range of likely voter models. Fifteen such models currently are in use, projecting turnout estimates ranging from 43 to 70 percent of the voting age population. All show essentially the same results using the last four nights of data.
They did it 3 days ago or so

Are you sure? Both Nates (538 and Upshot) would complain about it.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Gass3268 on October 30, 2016, 07:07:23 am
Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 30, 2016, 07:21:44 am
Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.
How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 30, 2016, 07:24:50 am
Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.
How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?

Not nearly as bad


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 30, 2016, 07:25:36 am
Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.
How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?

Not nearly as bad
Numbers?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on October 30, 2016, 07:29:04 am
Poll says that 30% of the electorate less likely to vote for Clinton because of this, vast majority are Trump supporters, 60% don't care or it doesn't effect their vote. Only 7% of Clinton supporters say this makes them less likely to vote for her, that feels like a decent number, but I feel like a decent pushback and defense by the campaign should be able to mitigate that number.
How did this compare to the access Hollywood tape?

Not nearly as bad
Numbers?

You had 14% of Republicans saying he should drop out of the race and another 9% say their congressman/congresswoman should disavow him


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: JJC on October 30, 2016, 11:03:40 am
Jesus this poll is a disaster. An 11 point swing within a week? I don't think so.

Changing your LV model in the middle of a tracking poll will always be a bad idea.

Well it was never a 12 point race to begin with.

Honestly the polls have been so chaotic that I'm at the point of just ignoring them completely. It's all about which poll can correctly predict how the turnout on election day will look like. And I don't think anyone has a clue.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on October 30, 2016, 01:15:32 pm
Yeah it's borderline unethical to change your methodology in the middle of conducting a tracker poll and then not elaborate.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 01:31:42 pm
Yeah it's borderline unethical to change your methodology in the middle of conducting a tracker poll and then not elaborate.

No, they didn't change the model.

It seems like someone missunderstood (or "missunderstood" ::) )their note about ~"voters' preferences didn't change, their intentions did". But the model itself is unchanged.

One may argue, if the model is good, but when it showed C+12 (bc of low enthusiasm among Reps), it was OK...


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Maxwell on October 30, 2016, 01:32:11 pm
I think this has gotten about as close as it's going to get - Clinton at 49% in the two-way, 46% in the three-way. We'll see tomorrow, though.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 30, 2016, 01:33:20 pm
i predict, 2 or 3 of the trackers are going to show a trump lead, up to two points, during the next week.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dfwlibertylover on October 31, 2016, 06:07:31 am
No change in the 4 way today, still Clinton + 1, 2 way narrowed to a 2 point lead, 49-47 Clinton


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on October 31, 2016, 06:14:03 am
Clinton's fav/unfav at 38/60 now a bit worse than Trump 39/58.  Kinds of prove that axiom in this election that whoever is in the news more will have worse favorables.  It was Trump in most of October and now it is Clinton's turn.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 31, 2016, 06:16:18 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a92016ElectionTrackingNo9.pdf

Clinton 46% (+/-)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  47% (+1)


Favorability:
Clinton 38/60
Trump  39/58

Beautifull!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 31, 2016, 06:16:43 am
So with two days of the FBI stuff in no change.  Still think the poll is sh**t but not bad.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 31, 2016, 06:18:48 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a92016ElectionTrackingNo9.pdf

Clinton 46% (+/-)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  47% (+1)


Favorability:
Clinton 38/60
Trump  39/58


Beautifull!

Have they been tracking this too? Because if that's the model they're working with, their results make a lot more sense.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on October 31, 2016, 06:21:11 am
So far the FBI email story has not hurt Clinton that much yet although her favorables are being hit which could hurt her chances of picking up undecided.  This poll is from 10/29.  It would be interesting to see 10/30 and 10/31 when all the Sunday talk shows had a chance to talk about this topic.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: afleitch on October 31, 2016, 06:25:01 am
The major change over the last few days has been Clinton going from +49 to +31 with Latino voters in two days. Which again goes against what we know about Latino voting intention.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 31, 2016, 06:26:00 am
The major change over the last few days has been Clinton going from +49 to +31 with Latino voters in two days. Which again goes against what we know about Latino voting intention.


Wut.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on October 31, 2016, 06:28:50 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a92016ElectionTrackingNo9.pdf

Clinton 46% (+/-)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  47% (+1)


Favorability:
Clinton 38/60
Trump  39/58

Beautifull!
Don't mind the wizard behind the curtain weighting party ID to D+10 to help Hillary keep the lead.

Quote
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 26-29, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,165 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-27-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423&cid=abcn_tco

Quote
Party ID was weighed to the average of the most recent Post-ABC News surveys

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-tracking-poll-october-25-28/2115/


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 31, 2016, 06:31:52 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a92016ElectionTrackingNo9.pdf

Clinton 46% (+/-)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  47% (+1)


Favorability:
Clinton 38/60
Trump  39/58

Beautifull!
Don't mind the wizard behind the curtain weighting party ID to D+10 to help Hillary keep the lead.

Quote
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 26-29, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,165 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-27-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423&cid=abcn_tco

Quote
Party ID was weighed to the average of the most recent Post-ABC News surveys

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-tracking-poll-october-25-28/2115/

Do we need to go through this with you every four years?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 31, 2016, 06:33:37 am
Yes
Because if that's the model they're working with, their results make a lot more sense.
They didn't change the model.


The major change over the last few days has been Clinton going from +49 to +31 with Latino voters in two days. Which again goes against what we know about Latino voting intention.

Link? They usually don't report this.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on October 31, 2016, 06:44:13 am
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1184a92016ElectionTrackingNo9.pdf

Clinton 46% (+/-)
Trump  45% (+/-)
Johnson  4% (+/-)
Stein      2% (+/-)

2-way:
Clinton 49% (+/-)
Trump  47% (+1)


Favorability:
Clinton 38/60
Trump  39/58

Beautifull!
Don't mind the wizard behind the curtain weighting party ID to D+10 to help Hillary keep the lead.

Quote
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 26-29, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,165 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-27-30 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/deep-unfavorability-clinton-trump-marks-elections-sharp-divisions/story?id=43177423&cid=abcn_tco

Quote
Party ID was weighed to the average of the most recent Post-ABC News surveys

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/politics/washington-post-abc-news-tracking-poll-october-25-28/2115/

Do we need to go through this with you every four years?
Nope, but I'd like to know why ABC/WaPost is weighing for Party ID when all I hear from you folks is that pollsters shouldn't. So please give me an explanation on that.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: alomas on October 31, 2016, 06:56:51 am
Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

:)



Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 31, 2016, 06:57:56 am
Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

:)


Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 31, 2016, 07:00:52 am
Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

:)


Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.

I'm having such warm fuzzies from four years ago.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on October 31, 2016, 07:04:18 am
Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

:)


Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.

I'm having such warm fuzzies from four years ago.
Again, why is ABC reweighing for Party ID? All I have been told here is that that is not the way reputable pollsters do things.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 31, 2016, 07:05:25 am
Three days ago they had Clinton +4, it was the last fully pre-emails gate,
Two days ago they had Clinton +2, Democrats +8
Yesterday Clinton was +1, Democrats +9
Today Clinton stays at +1, Democrats +10!

:)


Love the poll unskewers that come out close to election day.

I'm having such warm fuzzies from four years ago.
Again, why is ABC reweighing for Party ID? All I have been told here is that that is not the way reputable pollsters do things.
The poll is sh**t, but you remember when you did this four years ago, it didn't turn out so well, and you stopped posting for four years.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: RalstonSucks on October 31, 2016, 07:19:27 am
Guys.... the polls are tightening what do we do what do we do what do we do?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Ljube on October 31, 2016, 08:10:36 am
Guys.... the polls are tightening what do we do what do we do what do we do?

Sit back and enjoy the ride. :)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 31, 2016, 02:09:56 pm
Guys.... the polls are tightening what do we do what do we do what do we do?

Move along, nothing to see here. All is well. Hillary will still win Texas.

(Image Link)
(Image Link)
(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: SunSt0rm on November 01, 2016, 06:03:34 am
Trump 46%
Clinton 45%
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-leads-clinton-point-poll-enthusiasm-declines/story?id=43199459


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 01, 2016, 06:06:53 am
Well, there we go.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Cruzcrew on November 01, 2016, 06:08:31 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 06:09:28 am
Trump 46% (+1)
Clinton 45% (-1)
Johnson 3% (-1)
Stein      2% (+0)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 01, 2016, 06:11:32 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 06:13:47 am
Quote
Another look at the data divides the last seven nights of tracking results into red, blue and toss-up states, as designated by the ABC News Political Unit. The results:

• In states considered to be strongly for Trump or leaning toward him (with a total of 180 electoral college votes), he leads Clinton by a broad 60-34 percent.

• In blue states (with 278 electoral votes), Clinton leads 54-37 percent.

In the five ABC-designated toss-up states (with 80 electoral votes) -- Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah -- voters split 41 percent Clinton to 48 percent Trump. That’s not a significant difference given the 5.5-point error margin at this sample size.

Quote
Clinton’s support rests in part on early voting: A fifth of those identified as likely voters (21 percent) say they’ve in fact already voted. While the sample isn’t large (thus an error margin of +/-7 percentage points), they divide by 55-39 percent, Clinton-Trump.

Quote
Among other factors, there’s been consolidation for Trump among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (86 percent now back him, up from 80 percent). He has also seen improvement among pure independents (i.e., those who don’t lean toward either party), up from an even split to a large Trump advantage, 25 percent Clinton to 54 percent Trump, across the past seven nights (combined for a larger samples size). Seventeen percent of pure independents pick someone else.

Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, meanwhile, Trump’s support has gone from 5 to 9 percent -- a slight change, but a statistically significant one. Clinton’s support has been essentially steady.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 06:15:44 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 06:17:26 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 01, 2016, 06:18:14 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.

He leads all this time the LA Times poll and just a few days ago he was leading the IBD/TIPP poll. And of course he led many times at Rasmussen.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 06:20:18 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Im not lying. Trackers suck, you'll find that out on election day.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 01, 2016, 06:21:39 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.

He leads all this time the LA Times poll and just a few days ago he was leading the IBD/TIPP poll. And of course he led many times at Rasmussen.

Yes, but many on this site claim that LA Times and Rasmussen are junk and not credible so I tried to find one that people on both sides of the partisan divide would say is a credible pollster regardless of what I might think.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 06:22:43 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Im not lying. Trackers suck, you'll find that out on election day.

Tracker is just a nationall poll on daily basis. Methodologi is the same. And if methodology is good (you were happy with it when it showed good news) the more data, the better.

It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 06:26:27 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.

Stop lying. It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Im not lying. Trackers suck, you'll find that out on election day.

Tracker is just a nationall poll on daily basis. Methodologi is the same. And if methodology is good (you were happy with it when it showed good news) the more data, the better.

It is an A+ high quality nationall poll.

Again, 538 is not gospel.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 01, 2016, 06:34:48 am
With this RCP 4 way average is down to Clinton +2.5  I wonder what Rasmussen will come out with today.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 01, 2016, 06:36:37 am
As soon as this poll came out the dollar index adjusted value of Mexican Peso (MXN) dropped 0.5%


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: The Other Castro on November 01, 2016, 06:39:42 am
Funny enough, the ABC tracker one week out in 2012 had Romney +1.

(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 01, 2016, 06:45:28 am
Funny enough, the ABC tracker one week out in 2012 had Romney +1.

(Image Link)

Yes, but I recall the last pre-election poll a day before the election had Obama+3 since it was clear that Obama had the momentum the last week of the election.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: rafta_rafta on November 01, 2016, 06:50:39 am
This tightening will test the strength of the friewal


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 07:07:07 am
USA, it is all about turnout.

Percent "very enthusiastic" about each candidate over time

(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 07:10:50 am
USA, it is all about turnout.

Percent "very enthusiastic" about each candidate over time

(Image Link)

Hence, why her support has dropped. They fall out of the likely voter screen, doesnt mean they arent voting.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Umengus on November 01, 2016, 07:16:29 am
"The latest results, while steady for seven nights, reflect a sharp turnaround from a large Clinton lead in the first four nights of tracking, which were a particularly difficult news cycle for Trump. "


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Umengus on November 01, 2016, 07:22:55 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

Back in Mid Sept a week before the first debate Bloomberg had him +2.  That seems like a long time ago.

He leads all this time the LA Times poll and just a few days ago he was leading the IBD/TIPP poll. And of course he led many times at Rasmussen.

Yes, but many on this site claim that LA Times and Rasmussen are junk and not credible so I tried to find one that people on both sides of the partisan divide would say is a credible pollster regardless of what I might think.

Rasmussen was very very good in 2004 et 2008 but bad in 2000 et 2012.

You know, even pollsters having good reputation (mason-dixon, sellzer,...) can sometimes  be completely off (mason dixon in florida 2012, sellzer in gop caucus Iowa 2016,...)

So there are no polls that you can trust 100 %.

This election is probably the most difficult election to poll due to Trump and (maybe) some hidden Trump voters.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Eraserhead on November 01, 2016, 07:53:09 am
At least all of this tightening should make for a dramatic election night. I still have a very hard time seeing how Trump gets to 270 EVs.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 07:59:10 am
At least all of this tightening should make for a dramatic election night. I still have a very hard time seeing how Trump gets to 270 EVs.

Cause there weren't so much polling from WI-CO-NV-PA kinds of states lately. If the tightening is that dramatic how this particular poll suggest, we will see Trump friendly states poll (as we saw in September, when state polls followed nationall polls).  It also would be nice to get some new nationall polls from Selzer/Fox/NBC/Marist/QU/Monmouth etc to see if the tightening is real :D


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on November 01, 2016, 08:40:28 am
When was the last time Trump led a real national poll?

This isnt a real national poll. There is not a single, high quality tracker.
My issue with the ABC poll is the Party ID reweigh, but I believe this poll is live call (w/Spanish), so I don't know how you can dicker on quality by the later metric. I believe on this site, the live call w/Spanish is considered the highest "quality."

The reweigh by Party ID greatly assists Hillary!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: elcorazon on November 01, 2016, 08:44:54 am
Quote
Another look at the data divides the last seven nights of tracking results into red, blue and toss-up states, as designated by the ABC News Political Unit. The results:

• In states considered to be strongly for Trump or leaning toward him (with a total of 180 electoral college votes), he leads Clinton by a broad 60-34 percent.

• In blue states (with 278 electoral votes), Clinton leads 54-37 percent.

In the five ABC-designated toss-up states (with 80 electoral votes) -- Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Utah -- voters split 41 percent Clinton to 48 percent Trump. That’s not a significant difference given the 5.5-point error margin at this sample size.

Quote
Clinton’s support rests in part on early voting: A fifth of those identified as likely voters (21 percent) say they’ve in fact already voted. While the sample isn’t large (thus an error margin of +/-7 percentage points), they divide by 55-39 percent, Clinton-Trump.

Quote
Among other factors, there’s been consolidation for Trump among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents (86 percent now back him, up from 80 percent). He has also seen improvement among pure independents (i.e., those who don’t lean toward either party), up from an even split to a large Trump advantage, 25 percent Clinton to 54 percent Trump, across the past seven nights (combined for a larger samples size). Seventeen percent of pure independents pick someone else.

Among Democrats and Democratic leaners, meanwhile, Trump’s support has gone from 5 to 9 percent -- a slight change, but a statistically significant one. Clinton’s support has been essentially steady.

the 5 tossup states are all must wins for Trump. If Clinton wins any of them, she is President


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: The Other Castro on November 01, 2016, 09:15:40 am
Looks at this panicky liberal right here

Newt Gingrich Verified account
‏@newtgingrich
Washington Post-ABC poll is an absurdity. Trump has not moved up 13 points in the last 8 days.he was NEVER 12 points behind. Ignore polls


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: King on November 01, 2016, 09:16:46 am
20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:33:35 am
Looks at this panicky liberal right here

Newt Gingrich Verified account
‏@newtgingrich
Washington Post-ABC poll is an absurdity. Trump has not moved up 13 points in the last 8 days.he was NEVER 12 points behind. Ignore polls

Lol, noone said. But being an outlier, doesn't matter that you can't get any usefull information out of the poll. In fact, you can.

Very simpified you can say that:

If you get +12, it means that you at worst at +7.
If you get +1,   it means that you at worst at -4.

So the poll sort of says, that there was at least 3% points shift. Very simplified.



Quote
Nate Silver Verified account
‏@NateSilver538
Our model forecasts the popular vote as Clinton 49.2, Trump 44.7.
What if we removed the ABC/Post poll entirely? Clinton 49.3, Trump 44.5.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 10:08:32 am
20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.

And with this trajectory, HRC will be down to 0 votes by election day!!!!!!!!!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Ljube on November 01, 2016, 10:13:26 am
20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.

And with this trajectory, HRC will be down to 0 votes by election day!!!!!!!!!

Let's hope it materializes like that!!! :)

Except, she will have the votes already cast/mailed. :(


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 01, 2016, 10:14:20 am
20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.

And with this trajectory, HRC will be down to 0 votes by election day!!!!!!!!!

Let's hope it materializes like that!!! :)

Except, she will have the votes already cast/mailed. :(


No worries, Putin is on the case to make America great.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 10:20:20 am
20 million people changed their minds in the past 7 days, folks.

And with this trajectory, HRC will be down to 0 votes by election day!!!!!!!!!

Let's hope it materializes like that!!! :)

Except, she will have the votes already cast/mailed. :(


No worries, Putin is on the case to make America great.



Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 02, 2016, 06:02:13 am
(Image Link)

Back to tied 46-46-3-2


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 06:05:36 am
4-way
Clinton 46 (+1)
Trump  46 (-)
Johson   3 (-)
Stein      2 (-)

2-way
Clinton 48 (-)
Trump  47 (-)

Quote
Enthusiasm for both candidates remains weak -- 46 percent of Clinton’s supporters and 52 percent of Trump’s are very enthusiastic about their choice, compared with, for example, 64 percent for Barack Obama and 62 percent for Mitt Romney at this point in 2012.
Quote
Johnson

One dynamic related to the tightened Clinton-Trump race is a decline in support for Johnson (compared with steadier support, albeit minimal, for Stein). In early September, 11 percent of registered voters, and 9 percent of likely voters supported Johnson, vs. only 4 and 3 percent, respectively, now. Stein has held steady at 3 and 2 percent, respectively.

This appears to have aided Trump more than Clinton. In September, 11 percent of Republican and GOP-leaning likely voters supported Johnson; that’s at 4 percent now, down 7 points, as Trump has consolidated in this group. Leaned Democrats, by contrast, have shifted away from Johnson by just 3 points, from 5 to 2 percent.

Stein, for her part, has retained her support, 2 percent among leaned Democrats, 1 percent among leaned Republicans.


Quote
Notably, Trump has not gained significantly in being seen as more honest than Clinton. Rather her score has dropped by 7 points in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. The number who volunteer that they don’t see either as honest and trustworthy has risen from 8 to 12 percent, a small, but significant change.

Compared to early September results, Clinton has lost 14 points among independents in being seen as more honest than Trump, and 13 points among moderates -- two groups less firmly anchored by partisan or ideological preferences. That said, she’s also lost 10 points among Democrats on this measure.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: ReapSow on November 02, 2016, 06:57:23 am
4-way
Clinton 46 (+1)
Trump  46 (-)
Johson   3 (-)
Stein      2 (-)

2-way
Clinton 48 (-)
Trump  47 (-)

Quote
Enthusiasm for both candidates remains weak -- 46 percent of Clinton’s supporters and 52 percent of Trump’s are very enthusiastic about their choice, compared with, for example, 64 percent for Barack Obama and 62 percent for Mitt Romney at this point in 2012.
Quote
Johnson

One dynamic related to the tightened Clinton-Trump race is a decline in support for Johnson (compared with steadier support, albeit minimal, for Stein). In early September, 11 percent of registered voters, and 9 percent of likely voters supported Johnson, vs. only 4 and 3 percent, respectively, now. Stein has held steady at 3 and 2 percent, respectively.

This appears to have aided Trump more than Clinton. In September, 11 percent of Republican and GOP-leaning likely voters supported Johnson; that’s at 4 percent now, down 7 points, as Trump has consolidated in this group. Leaned Democrats, by contrast, have shifted away from Johnson by just 3 points, from 5 to 2 percent.

Stein, for her part, has retained her support, 2 percent among leaned Democrats, 1 percent among leaned Republicans.


Quote
Notably, Trump has not gained significantly in being seen as more honest than Clinton. Rather her score has dropped by 7 points in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. The number who volunteer that they don’t see either as honest and trustworthy has risen from 8 to 12 percent, a small, but significant change.

Compared to early September results, Clinton has lost 14 points among independents in being seen as more honest than Trump, and 13 points among moderates -- two groups less firmly anchored by partisan or ideological preferences. That said, she’s also lost 10 points among Democrats on this measure.

She's surging! Poll must be rigged again!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 03, 2016, 06:04:47 am
(Image Link)

Clinton back in lead

Clinton    47
Trump    45
Johnson   3
Stein       2


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dfwlibertylover on November 03, 2016, 06:06:29 am
Something Something *Comey effect*


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 03, 2016, 06:08:36 am
(Image Link)

The regional breakdown  seems favorable to Trump implying a lot of wasted Clinton votes in the Northeast but Trump with an advantage in the Midwest.  This poll would imply that Trump should focus on states like WI and MI to get him over the top and forget about PA NH. 


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 03, 2016, 06:10:09 am
Literally every tracking poll is slowly but steadily returning to the status quo ante.
If I'm correct then this week's state polls showed the worst possible scenario for Clinton.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 03, 2016, 06:24:44 am
Dollar index adjusted value of Mexican Peso (MXN) jumped 0.3% when this poll came out.  Of course it is still down by around 4.5% from when the FBI news came out friday.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dfwlibertylover on November 03, 2016, 06:26:00 am
Literally every tracking poll is slowly but steadily returning to the status quo ante.
If I'm correct then this week's state polls showed the worst possible scenario for Clinton.
A tie - Clinton + 3 race? Yeah


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 03, 2016, 06:33:16 am
I think the demographic breakdown is a misread of the electorate. Think African-American turnout will be 11% of the electorate but Hispanic will be 13% (look at the early vote surge) and others will be 3-4%


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Lok on November 03, 2016, 06:36:11 am
Trump getting 13% of liberals makes me sick inside.

Also, Clinton is up despite the majority of responses in this poll are coming from Trump's two best regions.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: HokeyDood on November 03, 2016, 06:36:45 am
Absolutely SMASHING!  The media had their circus and now are quickly trying to save face after Muh Surge.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: The Other Castro on November 03, 2016, 07:06:11 am
Oh I didn't even notice the demographic issues with this before:
Whites - 75%, when they're going to be much closer to 72% or lower.
Blacks - 10% when it's hard to see them falling much lower than 12%
Hispanics - 8%, when they'll likely be closer to 10%


I tried to get the 538 state flipper to match the electorate sizes in this poll, and it would probably take a MASSIVE black collapse: http://53eig.ht/21wa4Aw#NCEW:0.621;0.568,CEW:0.531;0.727,Black:0.058;0.485,Latino:0.217;0.419,A/O:0.295;0.549,3:0.05


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 03, 2016, 07:20:22 am
2-way:
Clinton 49 (+1)
Trump 47  (--)


Literally every tracking poll is slowly but steadily returning to the status quo ante.
If I'm correct then this week's state polls showed the worst possible scenario for Clinton.
Literally every tracking poll? Like what?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Panda Express on November 03, 2016, 07:23:17 am
Donald Trump and the GOP have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Julian Assange and Wikileaks have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Vladimir Putin and the Russian have blown their wad and failed to stop her.

Now Comey and the FBI have blown their wad and have failed to stop her.

Who wants to come at her next?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: HokeyDood on November 03, 2016, 07:29:18 am
Oh I didn't even notice the demographic issues with this before:
Whites - 75%, when they're going to be much closer to 72% or lower.
Blacks - 10% when it's hard to see them falling much lower than 12%
Hispanics - 8%, when they'll likely be closer to 10%


I tried to get the 538 state flipper to match the electorate sizes in this poll, and it would probably take a MASSIVE black collapse: http://53eig.ht/21wa4Aw#NCEW:0.621;0.568,CEW:0.531;0.727,Black:0.058;0.485,Latino:0.217;0.419,A/O:0.295;0.549,3:0.05

Yea, you can throw a couple more points on the board for Our Dear Hillary.  Couple that in with GOTV operation differences (aka a great one vs. none at all) and I'm not moving one inch off my prediction. 


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on November 03, 2016, 07:36:14 am
Donald Trump and the GOP have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Julian Assange and Wikileaks have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Vladimir Putin and the Russian have blown their wad and failed to stop her.

Now Comey and the FBI have blown their wad and have failed to stop her.

Who wants to come at her next?
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=hBjj-wKuP1M


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 03, 2016, 07:37:46 am
Donald Trump and the GOP have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Julian Assange and Wikileaks have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Vladimir Putin and the Russian have blown their wad and failed to stop her.

Now Comey and the FBI have blown their wad and have failed to stop her.

Who wants to come at her next?

Dude, you f**king kidding me. Trump shoots himself in the foot on weekly basis, has LITERALLY no classic GOTV, and he's still inside a MOE :)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Hollywood on November 03, 2016, 07:43:23 am
Black Vote will be down this year.  Its been down in early voting and ballot requests.  10% might really become reality on election.  Hispanic and White vote share will increase, given how energized both groups seem to be demonstrating. 


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2016, 08:09:26 am
Black Vote will be down this year.  Its been down in early voting and ballot requests.  10% might really become reality on election.  Hispanic and White vote share will increase, given how energized both groups seem to be demonstrating. 

It's been going back up in NC, OH, and FL the last couple of days after a very slow start. Matching results when Obama ran for office is not realistic but turnout looks to be solid.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: ReapSow on November 03, 2016, 08:12:09 am
Clinton +2 in one day? She's surging, he's collapsing! Polls are rigged again!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2016, 08:48:31 am
That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Comey-gate was a bust.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 03, 2016, 09:20:49 am
That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Intresting. So Trump now has worse entusiasm margin than when he was behind 12%. It means, that entusiasm wasn't a main reason, why the race has tightened.

It is in line with most polls, that showed that about 3-5% indeed changed their minds (those polls that asked). I think it was mostly Johnson ---> Trump, and Clinton ---> third parties.

:)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Brittain33 on November 03, 2016, 09:24:13 am
It is in line with most polls, that showed that about 3-5% indeed changed their minds (those polls that asked). I think it was mostly Johnson ---> Trump, and Clinton ---> third parties.

Yes, conservatives and Republicans moving from Johnson to Trump is the big story of the last two weeks.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Hammy on November 03, 2016, 03:27:27 pm
That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Comey-gate was a bust.

Do you think the effects dying out, or might they actually be backfiring with Comey himself at the center of the scandal?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Lok on November 03, 2016, 03:29:05 pm
That enthusiasm drop for Dems last weekend has completely reversed. There's now no significant gap between Trump and Clinton voters.

Comey-gate was a bust.

Do you think the effects dying out, or might they actually be backfiring with Comey himself at the center of the scandal?
I have been thinking that this scandal could have backfired, but I'll wait a couple more days for more polling.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Biden If Buttigieg on November 03, 2016, 03:29:41 pm
Trump getting 13% of liberals makes me sick inside.

Also, Clinton is up despite the majority of responses in this poll are coming from Trump's two best regions.

People like the Amazing Atheist and Sargon of Akkad identify as "liberals" for what it's worth.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Beef on November 03, 2016, 04:25:57 pm
Donald Trump and the GOP have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Julian Assange and Wikileaks have blown their wad and failed to stop her. Vladimir Putin and the Russian have blown their wad and failed to stop her.

Now Comey and the FBI have blown their wad and have failed to stop her.

Who wants to come at her next?

Thanks for the image.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 03, 2016, 08:08:46 pm
Oh I didn't even notice the demographic issues with this before:
Whites - 75%, when they're going to be much closer to 72% or lower.
Blacks - 10% when it's hard to see them falling much lower than 12%
Hispanics - 8%, when they'll likely be closer to 10%

I hate to say it, but Nate Cohn agrees with you.


Quote
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  6m6 minutes ago Washington, DC

Yikes this ABC/Post electorate actually is too old and too white (not something you hear often from me)
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/794343177553592324


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 04, 2016, 06:02:26 am
(Image Link)

Clinton +3 now

Clinton     47
Trump      44
Johnson     3
Stein         2


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on November 04, 2016, 06:06:18 am
Looks like those Trmp-friendly days are rolling off the average. I'm predicting this thing will put Hillary at 48-49 and Trump at 44-45 by the end of this poll.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 04, 2016, 06:08:06 am
Dollor index adjusted Mexican Peso (MXN) jumped 0.3% on news of this poll. 


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 04, 2016, 06:12:07 am
What's the h2h number? I can't find it.

Also, LOL at 17% of the electorate being concerned with corruption in government after 8 years of a scandal-free administration.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: bilaps on November 04, 2016, 06:14:14 am
What's the h2h number? I can't find it.

Also, LOL at 17% of the electorate being concerned with corruption in government after 8 years of a scandal-free administration.

really dude? smoking some stuff this early? hilary was a part of administration.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 04, 2016, 06:19:35 am
What's the h2h number? I can't find it.

Also, LOL at 17% of the electorate being concerned with corruption in government after 8 years of a scandal-free administration.

really dude? smoking some stuff this early? hilary was a part of administration.
...And? ???


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 04, 2016, 06:25:48 am
What's the h2h number? I can't find it.

Also, LOL at 17% of the electorate being concerned with corruption in government after 8 years of a scandal-free administration.

really dude? smoking some stuff this early? hilary was a part of administration.
...And? ???

Didn't you hear the news dude? She was running a pedophile sex ring while she was SoS.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE!!!

http://yournewswire.com/fbi-clinton-email-pedophile-ring/ (http://yournewswire.com/fbi-clinton-email-pedophile-ring/)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Dumbo on November 04, 2016, 06:47:03 am
4-point-surge in just 3 days


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 04, 2016, 06:57:57 am
Yeah, the race bounces back :(

Still inside Brexit margin :D

Putin/Comey should go to breaking news again...


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on November 04, 2016, 07:14:54 am
Yeah, the race bounces back :(

Still inside Brexit margin :D

Putin/Comey should go to breaking news again...
Hopefully Putin so people know who he voted for. :)
Brexit from what? Civilization? :D


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dfwlibertylover on November 04, 2016, 07:19:20 am
It seems like Clinton isn't surging so much as some Trump voters are going back to being undecided.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: afleitch on November 04, 2016, 07:29:53 am
Just out of interest, using yesterday's breakdowns and adjusting the racial composition to 2012 Clinton would have led 50-43


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: HokeyDood on November 04, 2016, 07:43:43 am
Just out of interest, using yesterday's breakdowns and adjusting the racial composition to 2012 Clinton would have led 50-43

Yup.  Add in the GOTV swing and HockeyDude's 9pt margin for Hillary is looking pretty sweet!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: F_S_USATN on November 04, 2016, 07:49:35 am
Its almost like Clinton was never +13 and Trump was never ahead the last two weeks.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on November 04, 2016, 07:51:11 am
Its almost like Clinton was never +13 and Trump was never ahead the last two weeks.
Shhhhh...


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: TC 25 on November 04, 2016, 07:55:39 am
Clinton can win the PV by 2, 2.5, and Trump can win the whole thing if he sneaks out Florida and Pennsylvania.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 04, 2016, 08:10:51 am
Clinton can win the PV by 2, 2.5, and Trump can win the whole thing if he sneaks out Florida and Pennsylvania.

Even better, he can lose Florida and Pennsylvania but still win if he flips California.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: alomas on November 04, 2016, 08:17:37 am
Quote
and she leads Trump in vote preference among economy voters by 67-28 percent.
Yeah for sure haha.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 04, 2016, 08:19:52 am
Quote
and she leads Trump in vote preference among economy voters by 67-28 percent.
Yeah for sure haha.
Because we want someone who bankrupted a casino in AC in 1995 to be dictating our economic policy. Right.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 04, 2016, 08:52:19 am
SINCE THE EARLY DAYS OF TRACKING!

CLINTON +12

BEAUTIFUL! :'(

(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 04, 2016, 08:55:38 am
Quote
and she leads Trump in vote preference among economy voters by 67-28 percent.
Yeah for sure haha.

It is not strange at all. Few support Trump because of economy ;)

SINCE THE EARLY DAYS OF TRACKING!

CLINTON +12

BEAUTIFUL! :'(

(Image Link)

Haha, poor Trump!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: The Other Castro on November 04, 2016, 05:37:57 pm
Update: Clinton +4

(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 04, 2016, 05:39:40 pm
basically they are just trolling now, aren't they?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dfwlibertylover on November 04, 2016, 05:40:49 pm
They updated 12 hours early? Huhhhh?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 05:41:02 pm
(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Arch on November 04, 2016, 05:41:27 pm

Bruh


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: The Other Castro on November 04, 2016, 05:41:44 pm

They said next update is Sunday, so maybe nobody works on Saturday and they wanted to get it out before they went home.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: KingSweden on November 04, 2016, 05:42:00 pm

Pour one out for the x axis


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dfwlibertylover on November 04, 2016, 05:42:49 pm
I guess lol, they probably will hype again and narrow it Sunday - Tuesday


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 04, 2016, 05:47:11 pm
Wait when did they call the new people for today's poll ???


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 05:52:31 pm
ABC News Politics ‏@ABCPolitics  5m5 minutes ago
Trump's support from GOP-leaning voters drops to 82% in new ABC/WaPo tracking poll, with 6% going to Gary Johnson

Evan McMurry ‏@evanmcmurry  2m2 minutes ago
Clinton, meanwhile, claims 87% of leaned-Democratic voters in @ABC News/WaPo tracking poll, losing 2% to Johnson.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton-rebounds-enthusiasm-trump-slips-tight-race-poll/story?id=43309964


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: psychprofessor on November 04, 2016, 06:00:35 pm

Karen Travers @karentravers
NEW @ABC-WP tracker: Clinton 47 Trump 43. Support for Trump has slipped to lowest in 10 days, enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has recovered
0 replies 10 retweets 38 likes


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 04, 2016, 06:01:16 pm
Wait when did they call the new people for today's poll ???

When they saw a lot of Trump friendly s**t polls today :P


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 06:12:20 pm
I actually think the non-white, non-black, non-Hispanic data is more interesting...

Nick Gourevitch ‏@nickgourevitch  1m1 minute ago
Clinton leading with Jews 73%-18% via ABC/Post poll aggregate of 4,613 interviews since Oct 20 (to look at small sample size groups)

(Image Link)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 04, 2016, 06:15:48 pm
Thanks, Ozymandias.

It is really intresting. IDK, why other didn't look into this :)

The data is still little bit noise. Jews 2% = ~80, but still quite intresting!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 04, 2016, 06:16:26 pm
I actually think the non-white, non-black, non-Hispanic data is more interesting...

Nick Gourevitch ‏@nickgourevitch  1m1 minute ago
Clinton leading with Jews 73%-18% via ABC/Post poll aggregate of 4,613 interviews since Oct 20 (to look at small sample size groups)

(Image Link)

Palm Beach County swings to Clinton (heavy Jewish vote in that county)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 04, 2016, 06:52:10 pm
Interesting tidbit:

Quote
Flashback: At the equivalent moment 4 days out in 2012, the WaPo/ABC tracker had a 1-point race: Obama 49 Romney 48
http://wapo.st/2fo5q5R

https://twitter.com/DanEggenWPost/status/794674229379821568


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 05, 2016, 02:59:16 am
So the thing that has dogged Hillary the entire campaign and kept Trump afloat through his constant campaign ending gaffes, controversies, etc. was the fact that the American public has the attention span of a goldfish and is incapable of caring about any event, no matter how big, for more than a week. For once the stupidity of Americans has worked in Hillary's favor. LOL


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: PresidentSamTilden on November 05, 2016, 06:18:57 am
Interesting tidbit:

Quote
Flashback: At the equivalent moment 4 days out in 2012, the WaPo/ABC tracker had a 1-point race: Obama 49 Romney 48
http://wapo.st/2fo5q5R

https://twitter.com/DanEggenWPost/status/794674229379821568

Technically that's a higher topline number for Obama, but that is good news. Hopefully Hillary can close out strong


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 05, 2016, 11:04:12 pm
Clinton +5

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 11:04:28 pm
Looks like those Trump-friendly days are rolling off the average. I'm predicting this thing will put Hillary at 48-49 and Trump at 44-45 by the end of this poll.

I called it folks! New numbers from Nov. 1-4:

Clinton 48%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

Clinton 49%
Trump 44%


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Arch on November 05, 2016, 11:04:50 pm
Looks like those Trump-friendly days are rolling off the average. I'm predicting this thing will put Hillary at 48-49 and Trump at 44-45 by the end of this poll.

I called it folks!

Clinton 48%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%

Clinton 49%
Trump 44%

Up up up!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 05, 2016, 11:06:38 pm
Clinton +5

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300

Nice!!!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 05, 2016, 11:07:47 pm
Hopefully this is a sign of things to come.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: KingSweden on November 05, 2016, 11:08:10 pm
Remember, trackers suck.

But a positive trend


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: peterthlee on November 05, 2016, 11:08:28 pm
BANZAI!!!!!!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 11:08:48 pm
BEAUTIFUL


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: darthpi on November 05, 2016, 11:10:25 pm
Looking more plausible that the shift we saw after the Comey disclosure was mostly just non-response, with not too many voters actually changing their minds. Still nervous, but edging away from panic.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 11:15:13 pm
Yeah, I think it's gonna turn out that Comey happened just a little too early. Would have been real trouble had it landed today. Now, as it is, it'll roll off almost entirely by Tuesday.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 05, 2016, 11:16:04 pm
i am nervous as hell atm....too many state polls (and i don't mean those from "National Future Research Global Marketing Inititative (R)) with twisted results.

in the best case, imho, there is going to be a re-aligment of state, sub-groups and congressional districts.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Holmes on November 05, 2016, 11:19:19 pm
i am nervous as hell atm....too many state polls (and i don't mean those from "National Future Research Global Marketing Inititative (R)) with twisted results.

in the best case, imho, there is going to be a re-aligment of state, sub-groups and congressional districts.

The realignment is that Democrats and Republicans trade Iowa and North carolina, and that between Florida and Ohio, Florida now becomes the more Democratic battleground state.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dfwlibertylover on November 05, 2016, 11:38:21 pm
The good thing for Trump in this poll is that their battleground part (NC, NH, FL, GA, and AZ) has Trump + 5


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Oakvale on November 05, 2016, 11:39:10 pm
Almost as if trackers are junk.

🤔


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 11:44:06 pm
The Friday write-up said that Monday was one of her best nights, so the fact that she went up today despite Monday dropping off is TREMENDOUS news!


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on November 05, 2016, 11:45:00 pm

Yup.

Honestly, at this point, I'm wondering if there's any point in following polls at all. They really aren't telling us anything of value right now.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Speaker OneJ on November 05, 2016, 11:46:49 pm
Clinton +5

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300

Nice!!!

Oh that's bad news for Trump. 😁


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2016, 12:04:49 am
Would not be surprised if this ends up as the most accurate poll when all is said and done.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 06, 2016, 12:05:38 am
The good thing for Trump in this poll is that their battleground part (NC, NH, FL, GA, and AZ) has Trump + 5

Can you show the link?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2016, 01:32:04 am
The good thing for Trump in this poll is that their battleground part (NC, NH, FL, GA, and AZ) has Trump + 5

Makes sense given how close NC/NH/FL are and the likelihood of Trump winning by 4-6 points in AZ/GA.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 06, 2016, 01:42:21 am
Have we not learned the lessons of "battleground" polls


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2016, 01:46:13 am
Have we not learned the lessons of "battleground" polls
The sample size is too small to be significant.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: jaichind on November 07, 2016, 07:04:21 am
(Image Link)

Clinton by 4

Clinton    47
Trump    43
Johnson   4
Stein       2


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 07, 2016, 07:06:20 am
Good, Trump at 43...


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: dspNY on November 07, 2016, 07:42:33 am
Looks like everything is settling in at Clinton +3 to +5


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: alomas on November 07, 2016, 08:03:03 am
Looks like everything is settling in at Clinton +3 to +5
+3 rather :) RCP shows the average at +2.2 (not including LATimes poll)


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 07, 2016, 08:11:23 am
Looks like everything is settling in at Clinton +3 to +5
+3 rather :) RCP shows the average at +2.2 (not including LATimes poll)

Yep.
538 Clinton +3%
Upshot Clinton +2.6%


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: The Other Castro on November 07, 2016, 03:17:03 pm
Updated with today's poll: Nov 3-6:

Clinton - 47%
Trump - 43%
Johnson - 4%
Stein - 1% (-1)

Final update to this tracker. All steady except Jill Stein.

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2016-race-stays-47-43-sunday-poll/story?id=43364234


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Hammy on November 07, 2016, 03:28:46 pm
Wasn't ABC the closest to 2012's final margin?


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Seriously? on November 09, 2016, 02:28:00 am
Junk poll.


Title: Re: ABC/WaPo Tracking poll megathread
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 09, 2016, 02:36:45 am

Disgusting media :)