Title: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%) Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 10:06:13 AM Yes, it’s that time again. It seems to be a tradition that the presidential race in Chile formally starts right after the municipal elections, and with about 13 months left until the first round we already have plenty of declared candidates, potential candidates and probably some surprises left in store.
So I’ll be placing a list of candidates here, and then move on to some analysis of what exactly has been going on in Chile since Michelle Bachelet was overwhelmingly elected to a second term in 2013: Nueva Mayoria: (DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC - Ruling left to center-left coalition) Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD): Strictly speaking Lagos has only said he's "willing to run", but for all purposes he is in full candidate mode, having campaigned across the municipal election and having seen the Energy Minister resign to serve as his campaign chairman. President from 2000-2006 and renowned as the symbol of the old Concertacion, Lagos jump-started the Presidential race earlier than expected a month or so ago, and while he leads the polls on the left side his position is unusually weak among the electorate. He has already seduced the leadership of several Nueva Mayoria parties, but it's far from certain he'd win a primary. Senator Isabel Allende (PS): Daughter of Salvador Allende, the Senator took over the Partido Socialista a couple of years ago as Chairman in an attempt to raise her profile and become one of the contenders. So far it hasn't worked, because she hasn't managed to be percieved as taking strong and public stances on the issues. Indeed, most of the PS parlamentarians are taking Lagos's side and not her, so it's becoming doubtful she'll find enough support to bother with a run. Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD): The unexpected darkhorse. Guiller used to be a popular and well regarder TV journalist who ran for Senate as an independent backed by the Radicals and won. While he hasn't had a large profile until this year, he's unexpectedly surged as he's viewed as a "principled outsider", and his campaigning in the municipals led the PRSD to some of its best results ever. Indeed, polls show him as the most competitive Nueva Mayoria candidate, and he seems to be Lagos's main threat. Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD): Tarud's a non-starter. A veteran parlamentarian and well regarded on his native Maule region, Tarud is better known as a foreign policy wonk with a penchant for making incendiary comments about Bolivia and Peru, and you can find him from time to time on TV attacking both countries rather fiercely. He's one of the few who's actually announced that he will run, but don't expect him to get far. Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS): A former Interior Minister (Lagos's right-hand man), his moment to run was in 2009 and he knows it. Still, he remains a possibility given his profile of a tough and effective operator, although a run from him would be pointless if Lagos indeed runs as they share the same electorate. Senator Ignacio Walker (DC): The Christian Democrats are rather unhappy about the current government, believing it has gone too far to the left. Their loathing of the communists also doesn't help. So the DC is divided in two sides: The old guard, with former Interior Minister Jorge Burgos seems to be of the opinion that they need to back Lagos and secure a large amount of influence on a moderate government of his. Senator Walker and a different side believe the DC has to field their own candidate on a primary or a first round to gain more leverage, and Walker is promoting himself as that candidate. Mayor Daniel Jadue (PC): Strictly speaking, no one knows what the PC will do. Some say they will remain on a broad center-left coalition and might even back Lagos, others say that they will turn back to the left and away from Nueva Mayoria. In any case, Mayor Jadue (who won in an upset in 2012 and has proved very popular due to several of his proposals) has expressed interest in a run, even if the party leadership went out of their way to deny that this was a possibility. So who knows? Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli - The main opposition, center-right to right coalition) Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind): Despite leaving office as an unpopular President with his coalition crushed at the election, Piñera has ironically turned into the trump card of the opposition. With Bachelet's government reaching higher levels of unpopularity than ever thought possible Piñera's administration looks better with hindsight (particularly his handling of the economy), and for whatever reason the corruption scandals on the right don't seem to have hit him. Indeed, the man leads all the polls ever since Lagos forced an early start of the race. Officially Piñera will not decide until March and campaigned at the municipals just out of helping Chile Vamos, but yeah, everybody knows he wants a comeback. After his triumph yesterday (having heavily campaigned for many winners), expect him to be the man to beat. Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind): Ossandon's a bit of an odd man. A persistent critic of Piñera, popular Mayor and the champion of the social-christian right, his term as a Senator has defined him further as a maverick, who left RN in protest for what he believes is a Pro-Piñera bias. So he'll run for sure in the primaries, perhaps even in the first round if he believes he's been treated unfairly. Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind): Kast is to UDI what Ossandon is to RN, having left the party in protest... for not being right-wing enough. Yeah, Kast believes the pro-Pinochet party ought to be a bit less moderate. So he's gathering signatures to actually go to the first round, and it looks like he might actually accomplish it. Senator Alberto Espina (RN) / Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN): I put both on the same category as they're pretty similar in views, both loyal party men of RN and aspiring contenders to be the party's nominee in the primaries. I won't judge to their chances if the primary is an open one, but if Piñera runs expect many RN votes to just turn to him and leave Espina or Chahuan (Espina has announced, Chahuan is a likely one) with minor levels of support. UDI: The Union Democrata Independiente is the clearest sign of how bizarre Chilean politics can be. Despite being the party that was hit the most by corruption scandals with several of its historical leaders (and presidential candiates) paraded across a courtroom, the party still was the largest one at the municipal election despite losing many votes, scoring most of the more symbolic victories. On the other hand, they simply don't have a figure with enough standing to run (the opposite of 2013, where they went through three heavy-weights). Some point to archconservative former Mayor Francisco de la Maza, some to the very young Deputy Jaime Bellolio, and some believe they should back Piñera outright. Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli): Evopoli is one of the two parties who split from RN (the other being Amplitud) and it aspires to represent the liberal center-right. To some degree it was succesful in garnering some 3% of the vote at the municipals (in Counciliors), but it just doesn't have a lot of leverage. Felipe Kast aims to run to position the party, but again, don't expect him to do particularly well. PRO (The Partido Progresista, a splinter from the old Concertacion and Ominami's cult of personality party) Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami: Ominami did history by running in 2009 as a center-left candidate who repudiated the Concertacion, and heavily damaged Eduardo Frei in the first round. He founded his own party to run in 2013... and got half the votes. At some point in 2015 with Bachelet's government sinking fast it looked like the left would have to run to Ominami as their savior, until he was involved in the corruption scandals as well. He still registers some support in the polls and has announced he will run, but he's dropped like a rock from his standing a few months ago. Sentido Futuro: (Ciudadanos + Amplitud - A new centrist formation, with liberal undertones) Unknown: Ciudadanos is a centrist party born from dissafected Concertacion supporters of Andres Velasco, whereas Amplitud is a center-right liberal party born out of the liberal wing of RN and led by Senator Lily Perez. They didn't do very well at the municipals (1% of the vote more or less), and both Perez and Velasco eye runs for the Senate, so one has to wonder what exactly will happen with this coalition. There are some supporters of Piñera here, but it's tough to say that would happen in a Piñera-Lagos or Piñera-Guiller race. Frente Amplio? Unknown: This is pure speculation, but there is a push among the non-Nueva Mayoria left to form a large coalition of left-wing parties to contest the election with a presidential candidate. Personally, I think this option is a lot more likely after the municipal results (which showed splitting the vote will not lead to good results), but it's impossible to tell. Plus, all the high-profile figures seem to come from the student movement, all too young to run. Independent, Other: Businessman Leonardo Farkas: A highly eccentric billionaire and philantropist, Farkas returned to Chile in 2007-2008 and took the country by storm, quickly becoming a possible candidate for 2009, although he declined. Ever popular, there's signs that point he could be considering a run, and he always registers at least 1-2% in the polls in the open questions. No way to predict how a run of his would look, but it does look like an election in which like a character like him could do well. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 10:13:27 AM Opinion Polls:
(I'll be registering them as they go, starting with the closest to the Municipal Election) Plaza Publica Cadem, October 24th: Bachelet Approval: 22%/68% Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Lagos 7%, Guiller 7%, Ominami 5%, Ossandon 3%, Farkas 2%, Allende 1%, Others 8%, None/Wouldn't Vote 47% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 36%, Lagos 14%, Guiller 5%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 2%, Ominami 1%, Allende 1%, None/Wouldn't Vote 36% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on October 24, 2016, 10:22:22 AM Jesus, the contrast between Bachelet I and Bachelet II is intense. Is the economy doing that badly?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 10:35:00 AM Jesus, the contrast between Bachelet I and Bachelet II is intense. Is the economy doing that badly? Yes and no. Strictly speaking growth has significantly decreased (from 5% or so under Piñera to 2% or so under Bachelet) and the Government has been forced to take a more conservative approach to spending (defined by the Finance Minister as "ete gobierno no es de billetera facil"). Add to that that the price of copper is going down, that unemployment is percieved to be higher under Bachelet and that the tax reform of the government failed to inspire much confidence and you have a clear perception of the economy doing badly. Alas, it is not the economy that sunk Bachelet. I'll do an explanatory write-up later, but the fact is that at the start of 2015 Bachelet's son Sebastian Davalos (who had a position in La Moneda as some sort of "socio-cultural advisor", sort of a First Lady or First Gentleman equivalent) was involved in the Caval scandal, in which he and his wife adquired some terrains in a shady deal that involved a few obscure loans, leading to a full investigation and corruption charges. Bachelet was not involved, of course, but her personal image utterly collapsed in a matter of weeks. And furthermore, the political incompetence of the Government has dwarfed Piñera's own failures in 2011 and 2012, leading Bachelet to fire two Interior Ministers and seeing several Ministers resign in less than ideal conditions (one of them, set to be the Government's official spokesman, lasted about a month before his integrity was put into question and he was forced to resign). Bachelet deeply believes her educational, tax, constitutional and union reforms are the best for the country, but the Nueva Mayoria parties are heavily divided in those and the Government's already chronic unpopularity has dragged the reforms down. Whereas the tax and educational reform had substantial majority backing in 2014, they are now rather unpopular. So while Piñera had to struggle with approval ratings in the low thirties and high twenties that made governing difficult, Bachelet has had to deal with her popularity in the low twenties and high tens. Indeed, the last poll showing her at 22% is actually an improvement for her. By opinion polls she has become literally the most unpopular President since democracy returned, surpassing Piñera at his worst moments (and he was pretty damn unpopular at one point, which is why his political revival is so fascinating). EDIT: Indeed, at one poll in August her approval rating reached 15%. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on October 24, 2016, 11:02:30 AM Lagos will be 79 in 2017.
Btw, what's the deal with former Latin American Presidents being so prone to run for non consecutive terms if allowed? Just from the bottom of my head: Bachelet, Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle, Alan Garcia, Carlos Menem, Rodrigo Borja, Alejandro Toledo, etc. etc. (with some like Itamar Franco plotting to run in every subsequent presidential election after his term, and Lula being a possible candidate in 2018). Just do what Mexico did: you get six years and after that be gone. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 11:06:33 AM Lagos will be 79 in 2017. Btw, what's the deal with former Latin American Presidents being so prone to run for non consecutive terms if allowed? Just from the bottom of my head: Bachelet, Eduardo Frei Ruiz-Tagle, Alan Garcia, Carlos Menem, Rodrigo Borja, Alejandro Toledo, etc. etc. (with some like Itamar Franco plotting to run in every subsequent presidential election after his term, and Lula being a possible candidate in 2018). Just do what Mexico did: you get six years and after that be gone. You try telling Lagos he's too old, he certainly doesn't look at it that way (and believe it or not, no one has made an issue of his age or health). But to the question, it's because Latin American politics are personality based more than they are ideological, always related to the idea of the "caudillo", the political leader. You can see it in Chile, where many political parties can be separated more by style, personalities and rhetoric rather than ideology or policies. Aylwin never ran again because his term was more than enough for him, but Frei ran again (and lost), Bachelet ran again (and won), and it seems all but certain Piñera and Lagos will go for it too. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Platypus on October 24, 2016, 12:23:44 PM Pero mi pais ya necesita poder de la gente... Chile no se queda atras, nuestra mejor opportunidad...
Any chance of Parisi getting back into the mix? Mainly cos that jingle was stellar. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 12:41:12 PM Pero mi pais ya necesita poder de la gente... Chile no se queda atras, nuestra mejor opportunidad... Any chance of Parisi getting back into the mix? Mainly cos that jingle was stellar. Well, the man did express interest in running again. Alas, he was fired from two different universities in the United States after being accused of sexual harassment, so... it's a bit doubtful we'll be hearing "el poder de la gente" once again. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 12:54:38 PM October 24th:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Mike88 on October 24, 2016, 01:03:18 PM Very interesting! Lumine, do you think that the recent center-right wave across South America also had an impact in Chile's local results? And that could also have an impact in 2017 presidential election?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 01:11:22 PM Very interesting! Lumine, do you think that the recent center-right wave across South America also had an impact in Chile's local results? And that could also have an impact in 2017 presidential election? I wouldn't say it had a role on the local elections themselves, but overall and in public discourse it does play a role. Many in the right, and particularly the more liberal right were very much encouraged by the Macri and PPK victories in Argentina and Perú, although more important than that is the negative perception some of the left-wing governments in Latin America have caused. Indeed, there has been a decent amount of debate between the left and the right over Brazil and particularly over Venezuela. Whether it will do so on the presidential depends greatly on whether Bachelet's standing recovers or not and where the non Nueva Mayoria left stands, but I can say that Chile Vamos now believes they can actually win the presidential race. That was NOT the case a few weeks ago, and examples like Argentina combined with these results are probably a much needed boost of confidence. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: seb_pard on October 24, 2016, 08:17:20 PM A scenario between Lagos and Piñera is just so sad to me, it's very painful to watch the political process right now in the country, specially from the left. Although I think this is Piñera's election to lose, the Nueva Mayoria is close to dead (the only thing that unify them is they have too many people dependent on government jobs) and all UDI leaders know that he is the only one from the right that can win (maybe Ossandon, but I think that once he starts to speak, his unfavorability will increase), despite they hate Piñera.
Although the economy is not in its best shape (last year's growth was 2.3% and the forecast for 2016 is 1.7%), Bachelet's disapproval is mainly explained by the government scandals, specially the Caval scandal. Lumine what do you think about this case? I think this really killed Bachelet politically, and since then, she is just waiting for the end of her government. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 24, 2016, 09:02:49 PM A scenario between Lagos and Piñera is just so sad to me, it's very painful to watch the political process right now in the country, specially from the left. Although I think this is Piñera's election to lose, the Nueva Mayoria is close to dead (the only thing that unify them is they have too many people dependent on government jobs) and all UDI leaders know that he is the only one from the right that can win (maybe Ossandon, but I think that once he starts to speak, his unfavorability will increase), despite they hate Piñera. Although the economy is not in its best shape (last year's growth was 2.3% and the forecast for 2016 is 1.7%), Bachelet's disapproval is mainly explained by the government scandals, specially the Caval scandal. Lumine what do you think about this case? I think this really killed Bachelet politically, and since then, she is just waiting for the end of her government. Well, for all the talk of renovation in politics Piñera and Lagos are not only leading inside parties, but on the polls. You truly have an entire missed generation of politicians who simply couldn't break through and become the voices of the future, so in a way it is less than ideal to see that happening. On the other hand, when I look at the other center-right candidates I don't see much to be convinced that they would be better than Piñera. I have a lot of sympathy and support for, say, Espina or Chahuan or Kast (Evopoli), but I can't seem them as president. I have to agree with you on Ossandon, I used to like the man, but he's too much of a loose canon to stand a real chance. But I can see where it might be depressing for the left. It is sad enough that the right still hasn't reinvented itself and abandoned some of the darkest parts of their past (something I've wanted for a long time), but the collapse of Nueva Mayoria must be truly painful from the inside. I truly expected the Chilean left to dominate politics for a while in late 2014, so to see the current situation is a bit of a shock. While I certainly disapprove of the government's economic policy (although I have a soft spot for Rodrigo Valdes), I also think it was Caval that in the end killed Bachelet. The strongest weapon she ever had was the fact that she could connect with people, and that people trusted and liked her on a personal level. And that was ended in a second by the scandal. Bachelet's current term, whether one is from the left of the right, has many aspects of a tragedy. The President seems truly convinced her reforms are for the best, and yet her government has been dead, buried and basically irrelevant for more than a year now. I don't feel sorry for a second for Nueva Mayoria, but there are times in which I do feel sorry for Bachelet at a personal level. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 25, 2016, 11:58:18 AM October 25th:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Mike88 on October 25, 2016, 01:20:11 PM This question may be a bit off topic, but i think it's interesting. Why did turnout in Chilean elections collapsed after the end of the mandatory vote?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: seb_pard on October 25, 2016, 06:08:26 PM This question may be a bit off topic, but i think it's interesting. Why did turnout in Chilean elections collapsed after the end of the mandatory vote? 1. The main reason is that people don't care to vote. When it was mandatory many people didn't wanted to vote but they registered during the 90's when the we had a lot of enthusiasm because of the return to democracy, but people increasingly started to distrust political institutions and many don't even care about participating in politics. This is just anecdotal, but my girlfriend is from Providencia, and she liked Josefa Errazuriz a lot but didn't vote on sunday because she had to do other things and though it was too much effort to vote (to me that is just terrible) and my best friend recently moved with his girlfriend, and he told me that he wasn't interested in going to his old commune to vote for mayor and council. People are lazy. 2. Another reason that is increasingly important is that we have issues with the electoral roll and contains many people that are dead. This underestimate the turnout. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 25, 2016, 06:14:04 PM Has Bachelet managed to get any notable reform passed, or has she basically been a lame duck all through her term?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 25, 2016, 10:48:45 PM Has Bachelet managed to get any notable reform passed, or has she basically been a lame duck all through her term? Oh, she most certainly did. 2014 was the key year, with Bachelet passing a tax reform law (which earned the ire of many small businessmen and economic groups, leading to negotiations with DC and Chile Vamos that watered it down a bit) and the decisive educational reforms, which created an odd scheme to make university free on a gradual basis among other things. Plus she also started a process to change the constitution, although so far not much has been advanced and the real decisions will be taken under the next President. The more relevant ones in electoral terms though are a voting reform, which ends the binomial system to elect Congress, increases the Senate from 38 to 50 and the Deputies from 120 to 150 and moves onto a D'Hondt proportional system awarding seats in districts that elect several officeholders. Add to that a reform to directly elect "Governors" for each region, although the current project gives them little power (a delegate from the government would be the one actually ruling the region). So yeah, despite all Bachelet has passed substantial reforms on many areas before seeing her approvals collapse. I do like the change to the electoral system despite a ridiculous provision which forces 40% of candidates to be women, and I do think having a new constitution is actually a good idea (although what that constitution should contain is the main issue), but I have to admit I abhor Bachelet's reforms on tax, the economy, and particularly the educational system. That was sometime ago, though. Last week she attempted to get an emergency bill to solve a scandal within the electoral service (SERVEL) which left many voters assigned to districts in which they didn't live, and she simply didn't had enough influence for parties (even the Nueva Mayoria ones) to bother supporting it. So at this point I really don't think she can get much passed even with her parliamentary majority. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 26, 2016, 01:22:06 PM October 26th:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 26, 2016, 02:30:49 PM Has Bachelet managed to get any notable reform passed, or has she basically been a lame duck all through her term? Oh, she most certainly did. 2014 was the key year, with Bachelet passing a tax reform law (which earned the ire of many small businessmen and economic groups, leading to negotiations with DC and Chile Vamos that watered it down a bit) and the decisive educational reforms, which created an odd scheme to make university free on a gradual basis among other things. Plus she also started a process to change the constitution, although so far not much has been advanced and the real decisions will be taken under the next President. The more relevant ones in electoral terms though are a voting reform, which ends the binomial system to elect Congress, increases the Senate from 38 to 50 and the Deputies from 120 to 150 and moves onto a D'Hondt proportional system awarding seats in districts that elect several officeholders. Add to that a reform to directly elect "Governors" for each region, although the current project gives them little power (a delegate from the government would be the one actually ruling the region). So yeah, despite all Bachelet has passed substantial reforms on many areas before seeing her approvals collapse. I do like the change to the electoral system despite a ridiculous provision which forces 40% of candidates to be women, and I do think having a new constitution is actually a good idea (although what that constitution should contain is the main issue), but I have to admit I abhor Bachelet's reforms on tax, the economy, and particularly the educational system. That all sounds pretty great to me. I'd be curious to know more about the tax and education reforms, but both of them sound like major progressive victories. The electoral reform is also glorious news, hopefully it will finally end gridlock. I'd much rather have an unpopular President that achieves significant positive change than a popular do-nothing one. So, it seems like Nueva Mayoria is in serious trouble for this election, but they should get their act back together by 2021, right? Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Famous Mortimer on October 27, 2016, 01:57:51 PM If she got all this done, why is she unpopular?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 28, 2016, 01:25:41 PM Opinion Poll:
CERC-Mori, October 27th: Bachelet Approval: 26%/65% Voting Intention: Piñera 19%, Guiller 11%, Lagos 9%, Allende 8%, Ominami 4%, Ossandon 4%, Insulza 2%, Walker 1%, Undecided 41% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 24%, Lagos 10%, Guiller 4%, Ominami 1%, Other/None 61% Piñera-Lagos race: Piñera 28%, Lagos 23%, Undecided 49% Piñera-Guiller race: Guiller 28%, Piñera 26%, Undecided 46% Politicians with a more promising future: Piñera 20%, Lagos 13%, Guiller 11%, Ominami 9%, Jackson 7% Voting Intention (Parliamentary): RN 7%, Other 6%, PS 5%, DC 3%, PPD 2%, UDI 2%, None 24%, Undecided 36% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 28, 2016, 01:29:41 PM If she got all this done, why is she unpopular? For the reasons Lumine explained at great length a few posts above. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 28, 2016, 01:35:28 PM October 27-28th:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 28, 2016, 02:00:56 PM That all sounds pretty great to me. I'd be curious to know more about the tax and education reforms, but both of them sound like major progressive victories. Th e electoral reform is also glorious news, hopefully it will finally end gridlock. I'd much rather have an unpopular President that achieves significant positive change than a popular do-nothing one. So, it seems like Nueva Mayoria is in serious trouble for this election, but they should get their act back together by 2021, right? Eh, I wouldn't really call them all that progressive. Bachelet's tax reform was basically a significant series of tax raises across the board, with a particular focus on corporate taxes, alcohol and tobacco taxes, with Bachelet and the Nueva Mayoria promising all the way this would raise enough money to support their election pledge to make college education free after the student movement's demands. Several economists, Chile Vamos, and even sectors of DC inside the government warned the reforms combined with the economic climate would probably do more harm, and sure enough, the growth forecasts of the Government proved to be very, very wrong. Indeed, the Government itself admitted it after firing Finance Minister Arenas to replace him with the more moderate and relatively fiscally conservative Rodrigo Valdes, with La Moneda stating it would not have enough money for several of its promised pledges. An example of this was scaling back the college proposals from making it free to just 70% of students, then only 60%, and so on. It is in doubt whether current levels can even be afforded long term. Which leads us to the education reforms, which tackle two main issues: 1.- Chile has three types of schools: Public (which are rather awful), semi-private (which are private or religious, but receive a degree of public financing) and the fully private ones. As a general rule, the more private they are the better quality they have, with the semi-private schools being the ones having about 60% of students in the country (I studied at one of those, a catholic school which was made affordable for middle class students through those subsides). The reform decided to focus on public education fully, ending the entire subsidy scheme so schools would only be private or public (and most will turn private), and eliminating the prerogative to select students (thus forcing schools to basically just accept them with few to none requisites). This I loathe because it basically kills the schools that were actually doing a good job, forcing students into public schools that don't work and offer poor quality of education for the sake of "social equality" rhetoric. There are also some reforms into the courses, which eliminate philosophy and reduce history, among other choices. 2.- The university dilemma. Ever since Nueva Mayoria decided to turn populist to try and win the protest vote and the supporters of the student movement, a key pledge was to pursue free schooling in universities, a policy which has been introduced gradually and slowed down significantly once it was clear there just weren't enough resources to actually pay for the scheme. This one has the virtue to draw ire from both the right and the non Nueva Mayoria left. The right because they don't believe we ought to be wasting so many resources for the sake of, again, rhetoric, and the left because they want fully free schooling now along with an end to grants and scholarships, at times basing this is saying that all we need to do is direct the gains from copper to the education budget or gutting the armed forces to obtain the resources. Reforms such as these use progressive rhetoric indeed, and I can see why some people think the reforms are for the best of country. But to me personally (and I am a very biased person, that I cannot deny), they are ill-thought populist measures which will do little but inflict serious harm on our educational future while placing undue strain on the budget. Add to that that the Government has been awful at trying to sell the reforms and drive them through Congress (and they have passed solely on the fact that Nueva Mayoria has a clear majority), and the fact that Bachelet is closely identified with her reforms as her project, and there is a reason why many people have turned against them. That said, I am happy that we changed the electoral system. I have serious misgivings about some parts of that change (because again, I dislike the idea of making it mandatory that 40% of candidates must be women), but a more proportional system is a welcomed plus, and a way to make our politics more diverse and less static. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 28, 2016, 02:10:15 PM So, it seems like Nueva Mayoria is in serious trouble for this election, but they should get their act back together by 2021, right? Indeed, it is. The problem is that ever since we introduced voluntary vote instead of mandatory less and less people can be bothered to vote, which meant that the Municipal Elections couldn't be predicted (and few people bothered to do polling because it was pointless). In the end, it seems our political system might shift from who is more acceptable to a larger part of the electorate to who can drive more people to the polls, which might mean doubling down on an electoral base rather than trying to increase the appeal. Nueva Mayoria is divided and shellshocked, but it can certainly still win. It's just that it changed from being sure that they would win in the end to a great deal of uncertainity. Piñera, after all, is no unbeatable juggernaut, and also brings up a lot of rejection. As to 2021... no one, and I mean no one, can say. Chilean politics are very unpredictable in the long term given the amount of personalism involved. When the old Concertacion lost power to Piñera in 2010 it entered a panic through 2010 to 2011, appearing to be lost and without a clear course as Piñera soared on the polls. But the student movement and Piñera's popularity collapse opened a clear road to power, and the Concertacion took it, unpredictably (from a 2010 point of view) branding itself as the Nueva Mayoria, taking a sharp turn to the left in discourse (not so much on policies) and resuscitating Bachelet as the electoral machine that would return them to victory. And sure enough, the gamble worked. Bolstered by the student and citizen movement they crushed the right-wing in the 2012 Municipals, and obliterated them again in 2013 with Matthei being vanquished and parliament going solid left. Indeed, as late as 2014-2015 it seemed Nueva Mayoria was set for long term dominance despite their issues as the Chilean right was disintegrating. And they threw it all away. So you have an entire wing led by the Christian Democrats saying "let's turn back to the Concertacion and to the center", and a whole other wing saying "no, we need to turn to the left and deepen the reforms". Add to that the fact that the far-left and the student movement is turning into a real third political force... and you have an unpredictable situation for the left. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: FredLindq on October 28, 2016, 03:01:28 PM How long can the DC stand sitting in same boat as the PC?!
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: Lumine on October 28, 2016, 04:53:38 PM How long can the DC stand sitting in same boat as the PC?! Hard to say. Both parties loathe each other and disagree on most of the issues, yet both see it as indispensable to keep close to the largest left or center-left coalition because of the previous electoral system, under which PC never got far by running alone and DC always had a major influence on each government. The PC is hesitant to abandon the power they've achieved by being part of the government, and DC is not interested in the wilderness or the right (much as I dream of the Christian Democrats "going home", so to speak). I'd like to think DC will finally say enough is enough, but both DC and PC have a bit of a reputation of being opportunistic. We have a new candidate as well, just announced on an interview: Grand Master Luis Riveros (Ind, close to PRSD): Former Rector of the Universidad de Chile and the Grand Master of the Grand Lodge of Chile, Riveros is a well regarded academic and economist, with the intention to run what he described as a "citizen candidacy". As the top leader of the Chilean freemasons, Riveros wields considerable influence within PRSD (which has always been the party of freemasonry) and is a critic of presidential hopeful Alejandro Guiller. Presumably Riveros wouldn't run in a hypothetic Nueva Mayoria primary as he is a supporter of the old Concertacion but has been highly critical of the current coalition, but I'm at a loss to make predictions. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Isabel Allende drops out Post by: Lumine on October 28, 2016, 06:36:11 PM
This leaves the current field as: Nueva Mayoria: (DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC) Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD) - Announced Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD) - "Willing to run" Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - "Willing to run" Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - "Willing to run" Senator Ignacio Walker (DC) - "Willing to run" Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative Former Minister Jorge Burgos (DC) - Speculative Mayor Daniel Jadue (PC) - Speculative Deputy and Party Chairman Guillermo Teillier (PC) - Speculative Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli) Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced, 35.000 signatures in hand Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Announced Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Announced Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) - Announced Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative PRO Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced Sentido Futuro: (Ciudadanos + Amplitud) Unknown Frente Amplio? Activist Luis Mesina (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative Independent, Other: Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) - Announced Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Speculative Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Isabel Allende drops out Post by: Lumine on October 31, 2016, 10:56:25 AM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, October 31st: Bachelet Approval: 23%/69% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 24%, Guiller 10%, Lagos 8%, Ominami 3%, Ossandon 3%, Farkas 2%, Allende 1%, Others 7%, Undecided 42% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 42%, Lagos 11%, Guiller 6%, Ossandon 3%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Allende 1%, Other/None 33% Municipals: Which candidate was bolstered by the municipals: Piñera 55%, Guiller 7%, Ossandon 4%, Lagos 4%, Ominami 2%, Allende 1%, Insulza 1% Which candidate was damaged by the municipals: Lagos 35%, Ominami 26%, Allende 7%, Piñera 3%, Ossandon 2%, Guiller 2%, Insulza 1% Political Party more aided by the results: UDI 25%, RN 21%, DC 3%, PPD 3%, PS 2%, PRO 2%, EVOPOLI 1%, PRI 1%, PRSD 1%, PC 1%, RD 1% Political Party more hurt by the results: DC 18%, PPD 12%, PS 10%, PC 6%, PRO 6%, UDI 5%, RN 3%, EVOPOLI 2%, PRI 1%, PRSD 1%, RD 1% Biggest responsible for the Nueva Mayoria defeat: Bachelet 19%, Nueva Mayoria parties 18%, both 58% Should there be a cabinet reshuffle: Yes 66%, No 28% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Isabel Allende drops out Post by: Lumine on November 01, 2016, 03:17:54 PM November 1st:
The fall-out over Senator Allende's unexpected departure from the presidential race so early continues to hit the PS, with observers citing Lagos as the force who drove Allende (willingly or not) out of the race and accelerated the process. Lagos's most likely rival in PS, his former Interior Minister Jose Miguel Insulza (nicknamed the Panzer) is facing a lot of pressure currently to announce or drop out, the new timing placing serious strain on his possible bid for the presidency. Indeed, it seems Lagos is skillfully eliminating his rivals one by one by virtue of being more resilient, having eliminated Allende from the picture and being close to forcing Insulza out. With Fernando Atria (PS) and Deputy Jorge Tarud not having a chance in hell of becoming nominees of the coalition (although they might get to the primaries), all eyes are set on Insulza on whether he'll force a PS primary, and particularly on Senator Alejandro Guiller as the only rival with enough popular support to defeat Lagos in a primary (and defeat Piñera as well on the presidential). Guiller, on the other hand, seems hesitant to make a decision so early, wasting time as Lagos exploits his influence to garner more institutional support from the Nueva Mayoria parties. We're a week from the Municipals, and the Presidential race has accelerated like no other before. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Isabel Allende drops out Post by: Lumine on November 03, 2016, 09:27:35 AM Opinion Poll:
Adimark, November 3rd: Bachelet Approval: 24%/71% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 20%, Guiller 15%, Lagos 5%, Ominami 5%, Ossandon 4%, Allende 2%, Kast (Evopoli) 1%, Insulza 1%, Others 10%, Undecided 37% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 37%, Lagos 14%, Guiller 8%, Allende 4%, Ominami 1%, Ossandon 1%, Insulza 1%, Other 35% General: Who do you identify more with: Government 30%, Opposition 35%, Neither 35% Approval of Nueva Mayoria: 15%/77% Approval of Chile Vamos: 17%/74% Trust in Politicians: Alejandro Guiller: 45%/28% Sebastian Piñera: 35%/45% Manuel Jose Ossandon: 26%/49% Jose Miguel Insulza: 26%/51% Carolina Goic:25%/46% Isabel Allende: 23%/54% Andres Velasco: 22%/52% Francisco de la Maza: 21%/51% Ricardo Lagos Escobar: 20%/66% Alberto Espina: 16%/68% Marco Enriquez-Ominami: 13%/71% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ossandon, Kast are in Post by: Lumine on November 07, 2016, 02:28:43 PM November 1st-November 7th:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ossandon, Kast are in Post by: Lumine on November 14, 2016, 01:29:20 PM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, November 7th: Bachelet Approval: 23%/70% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 28%, Guiller 14%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Farkas 2%, Allende 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 38% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 46%, Guiller 10%, Lagos 8%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Allende 1% Other/None 29% Plaza Publica Cadem, November 14th: Bachelet Approval: 20%/71% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 27%, Guiller 17%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Farkas 2%, Kast (EVOPOLI) 1%, Others 5%, Undecided 38% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 45%, Guiller 16%, Lagos 7%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 2%, Kast (EVOPOLI) 1%, Other/None 25% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ossandon, Kast are in Post by: Lumine on November 21, 2016, 06:40:26 AM Updated field:
Nueva Mayoria: (DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC) Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD) - Announced Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD) - "Willing to run" Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - "Willing to run" Senator Ignacio Walker (DC) - "Willing to run" Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative Former Minister Jorge Burgos (DC) – Speculative Former Governor Francisco Huenchumilla (DC) - Speculative Mayor Daniel Jadue (PC) - Speculative Deputy and Party Chairman Guillermo Teillier (PC) - Speculative Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli) Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Announced Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Announced Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative PRO Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced Sentido Futuro: (Ciudadanos + Amplitud) Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative Frente Amplio? Activist Luis Mesina (IND) - Speculative Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative Union Leader Cristian Cuevas (IND) - Speculative Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative Independent, Other: Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Speculative Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ossandon, Kast are in Post by: Lumine on November 21, 2016, 07:20:41 AM November 7th-November 21st:
Chile Vamos Primary:
Nueva Mayoria Primary:
Others:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The field takes form Post by: Lumine on November 22, 2016, 05:18:09 PM The scrambling gets more intense as December is near, and two new candidates jump into the fray:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The field takes form Post by: Lumine on November 22, 2016, 05:24:58 PM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, November 21st: Bachelet Approval: 19%/72% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 27%, Guiller 16%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 43%, Guiller 15%, Lagos 8%, Ossandon 3%, Other/None 31% Piñera Bancard Scandal: Did you know of the scandal: Yes 57%, No 36%, No Answer 7% Do you believe Piñera didn't know about the investment on a Peruvian fishing company: Yes 59%, No 39%, No Answer 2% Do you believe Piñera's government did everything it could to defend Chilean interests during the maritime dispute: Yes 48%, No 43%, No Answer 9% Do you think this is part of a "dirty campaign" against Piñera: Yes 58%, No 33%, No Answer 9% Would you say Piñera's explanations have been enough: Yes 20%, No 66%, No Answer 14% Was Piñera's govermnent good for Chile: Good 50%, Bad 29%, Neither 19%, No Answer 2% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The field takes form Post by: Lumine on November 27, 2016, 04:39:06 PM November 22nd-November 2th:
Chile Vamos Primary:
Nueva Mayoria Primary:
Others:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The field takes form Post by: Lumine on January 12, 2017, 04:24:20 PM Haven't updated this in a while, and the field has taken a bit more form:
November 27th-January 12th: Chile Vamos Primary:
Nueva Mayoria Primary:
Others:
Updated field: Nueva Mayoria: (DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC) Deputy Jorge Tarud (PPD) - Announced Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli) Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Announced Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Announced Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative PRO: Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced Todos: TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced Sentido Futuro: (Ciudadanos + Amplitud) Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative Frente Amplio: (RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, Pais, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others) Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced Activist Luis Mesina (IND) - Speculative Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative Union Leader Cristian Cuevas (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative Independent, Other: Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Speculative Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Guillier rising Post by: Lumine on January 15, 2017, 01:44:25 PM The center-left social democrat PPD (Partido por la Democracia) chose Ricardo Lagos as its nominee at their convention yesterday, with an internal vote by the party councilors giving Lagos 158 votes (92%) against quixotic candidate Jorge Tarud's 13 and 15 spoilt votes. Lagos's campaign is giving a substantial boost, and lives to fight another day by becoming a serious contender inside the Partido Socialista (which is strongly considering allowing Guillier and Lagos to participate in their candidate selection process alongside Atria and Insulza). Renovacion Nacional (RN) also held its national convention with scathing criticism of Nueva Mayoria and Alejandro Guillier, choosing to suspend choosing a nominee until March (where Piñera is set to formalize his intentions). Opinion Poll: Plaza Publica Cadem, January 9th: Bachelet Approval: 21%/66% Support for Bachelet's Reforms: Tax Reform: 24%/56% Educational Reform: 31%/60% Labour Reform: 25%/56% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 18%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 3%, Ominami 2%, Parisi 2%, Farkas 1%, Insulza 1%, Others 4%, Undecided 44% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 37%, Guiller 24%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 2%, Other/None 32% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Guillier rising Post by: Lumine on January 19, 2017, 06:50:45 PM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, January 16th: Bachelet Approval: 23%/66% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 2%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 28%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 27% Piñera/Guillier round: Men: 24/23 Women: 22/23 Young (18-34): 27/18 Adult (35-54): 23/23 Old (55-): 20/32 Upper Class: 32/26 Middle Class: 22/26 Lower Class: 19/21 Santiago: 22/26 Regions: 24/22 Catholic: 23/26 Evangelic/Protestant: 30/20 Atheist/Agnostic: 20/21 In General:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Guillier rising Post by: RodPresident on January 19, 2017, 09:43:10 PM Y
Opinion Poll: Plaza Publica Cadem, January 16th: Bachelet Approval: 23%/66% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 2%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 28%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 27% Piñera/Guillier round: Men: 24/23 Women: 22/23 Young (18-34): 27/18 Adult (35-54): 23/23 Old (55-): 20/32 Upper Class: 32/26 Middle Class: 22/26 Lower Class: 19/21 Santiago: 22/26 Regions: 24/22 Catholic: 23/26 Evangelic/Protestant: 30/20 Atheist/Agnostic: 20/21 In General:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Guillier rising Post by: Lumine on January 19, 2017, 10:29:57 PM Youth that didn't know Pinochet's regime is more Piñeira supporting than Guillier. Are they waiting for a more left-wing candidate or they're more conservative than their parents? To be fair, Pinochet is not really that much of a factor anymore (outside of the hard-left and the hard-right, which can't quite stop bringing Allende and Pinochet to every debate), and Piñera did vote No in 1988 and has been attacked from his right-flank for being too critical of Pinochet. It's more or less easy to explain by Guillier appears so strong with old voters since the pension system rose as one of the major issues in 2016, many attacking the current system as being unfair. In that sense, there's a probable belief among many of those voters that Guillier would indeed get rid of it and replace it (although that's a simplistic explanation). How to read Piñera's lead with the youth is harder, it was a shock to me. If I had to pick an explanation it would probably be the economy, usually the flagship of Piñera's legacy and one of the areas in which he looks the more appealing compared to Nueva Mayoria. It could also be dissatisfaction with the government affecting Guillier (and of course, Lagos) by proxy. But what I would hesitate to do is read it as waiting for a more-left wing candidate (since the polls are not including the Frente Amplio given that they don't have a clear candidate) or as being more or less conservative leaning, it should be noted the vast majority of the voters now refuse to identify with the left, center and right. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Guillier rising Post by: Intell on January 19, 2017, 10:52:21 PM Guillier the left-wing candidate is most supported by the middle class? Who do the different classes generally vote?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Guillier rising Post by: Lumine on January 19, 2017, 10:59:18 PM Quote Guillier the left-wing candidate is most supported by the middle class? So far, it seems to be the case, although there's disagreement of how to read that exactly. Guillier's main characteristic is that he's been turned into some sort of an electoral machine that appeals to the voters without actually having taken strong stances on the issues. There's a narrative behind him (that is, that he can take the Bachelet reforms and make them work and that he is an outsider against the establishment) which I suppose appeals to many in the middle-class, but I wonder how will his support change once he's forced to take more firm stances, and once the field is consolidated. On the other hand, beyond saying Guillier is center-left and probably a social democrat it's also hard to pin him in terms of ideology and thinking, and the Frente Amplio does find the idea of Guillier being a champion of the left laughable (even they attack him for a lack of substance). It might be my own bias, but I think Guillier is at a moment in which he represents views or stances that might end up being contradictory. Quote Who do the different classes generally vote? It's hard to say, as it depends on the areas of the country. Generally speaking the upper class does gravitate towards the right-wing and the lower class towards the left, but there's still a strong left vote in some higher income areas and the right does hold significant strength in some of the poorer areas of the country (something particularly exploited by UDI, which benefited from holding most of the Mayors under Pinochet and did its best to locally appeal to those voters). The middle-class tends to be the battleground which crowns the winner, but it is fragmented on who to support. There was a time in the 1940's and 1950's in which the Partido Radical was almost by definition the party of the middle class, and something similar took place under the reign of the Democracia Cristiana in the 1960's, but with political parties so fragmented, it would be hard to describe the middle class as strongly for one side. It should be noted though that polls tend to reveal more people identifying with the center-left and the left than the center-right or the right, and the right-wing only tends to win when they are able to mobilize independents behind them. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Guillier rising Post by: Lumine on January 23, 2017, 07:29:44 PM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, January 23rd: Bachelet Approval: 24%/65% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 2%, Farkas 2%, Parisi 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 40% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 25%, Lagos 5%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 29% Chile Vamos Primary: (among center-right, right voters) Piñera 68%, Ossandon 10%, F. Kast 9%, Espina 3%, Chahuan 2%, Undecided 8% Nueva Mayoria Primary: (among center-left, left voters) Guillier 61%, Lagos 16%, Insulza 7%, Goic 4%, Atria 3%, Undecided 9% Candidate Attributes: Who has more authority and leadership? - Piñera 41%, Guillier 19%, Lagos 16%, Ossandon 5%, Undecided 19% Who is better prepared to be President? - Piñera 40%, Guillier 23%, Lagos 13%, Ossandon 6%, Undecided 18% Who is more capable of solving the country's problems? - Piñera 38%, Guillier 24%, Lagos 10%, Ossandon 7%, Undecided 21% Who is more trustworthy? - Piñera 33%, Guillier 34%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 8%, Undecided 19% Who delivers more on his promises? - Piñera 32%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 8%, Undecided 32% Who knows better the needs of the public? - Piñera 25%, Guillier 31%, Lagos 8%, Ossandon 10%, Undecided 26% Who is closer to the public? - Piñera 25%, Guillier 40%, Lagos 6%, Ossandon 12%, Undecided 17% In General:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: Lumine on January 23, 2017, 07:41:57 PM Updated field:
Nueva Mayoria: (DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC) Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Speculative Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli) Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Will decide in March Senator Francisco Chahuan (RN) - Will decide in March Deputy Jaime Bellolio (UDI) - Speculative Former Mayor Francisco de la Maza (UDI) - Speculative PRO: Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced Todos: TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures Pais: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced Sentido Futuro: (Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal) Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative Frente Amplio: (RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others) Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative Union Leader Cristian Cuevas (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative Independent, Other: Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, gathering signatures Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures with DRP support Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: Simfan34 on January 26, 2017, 03:40:23 PM Piñera is making a comeback? There's an unusual bright spot.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: seb_pard on January 28, 2017, 01:54:13 PM Piñera is making a comeback? There's an unusual bright spot. In any case, I think his chances of being elected are falling due to the rise of Guillier, and I believe we are gonna see a competitive election in November. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Guillier rising Post by: seb_pard on January 28, 2017, 02:05:23 PM Y Opinion Poll: Plaza Publica Cadem, January 16th: Bachelet Approval: 23%/66% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 23%, Guillier 22%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 2%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Farkas 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 41% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 40%, Guiller 28%, Lagos 4%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 27% Piñera/Guillier round: Men: 24/23 Women: 22/23 Young (18-34): 27/18 Adult (35-54): 23/23 Old (55-): 20/32 Upper Class: 32/26 Middle Class: 22/26 Lower Class: 19/21 Santiago: 22/26 Regions: 24/22 Catholic: 23/26 Evangelic/Protestant: 30/20 Atheist/Agnostic: 20/21 In General:
Probably I'm gonna vote for the Frente Amplio candidate (Claudia Sanhueza maybe?) in the first round, and if the runn-off is between Piñera and Guillier, blank maybe. Although if Guillier doesn't succumb to a very populist message (anti-immigrant rhetoric is my biggest fear) I would vote for him (I just can't accept Piñera returning to power). Very good job Lumine. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: Lumine on January 28, 2017, 02:17:23 PM Probably I'm gonna vote for the Frente Amplio candidate (Claudia Sanhueza maybe?) in the first round, and if the runn-off is between Piñera and Guillier, blank maybe. Although if Guillier doesn't succumb to a very populist message (anti-immigrant rhetoric is my biggest fear) I would vote for him (I just can't accept Piñera returning to power). Very good job Lumine. Thanks, seb_pard! I would appreciate your insight regarding the left and particularly the Frente Amplio, my knowledge is rather limited there (I never considered Sanhueza for example, although she does seem a long shot). My condolences for the ongoing situation of the left, I am often very frustrated at the divisions on the right and the constant antics and stupidity often displayed by the UDI, but the left has like 20 different parties now and may end up divided in three or four coalitions at this rate. I fully expect a competitive election between Piñera and Guillier (I cannot believe how Guillier rises so fast without opening his mouth), seeing as the Frente Amplio will probably go to the polls divided and Sentido Futuro appears to be dead in the water. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: RodPresident on January 29, 2017, 03:46:43 PM Can Kast join Sentido Futuro. It makes more sense for him, if he doesn't get things from Chile Vamos.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: Lumine on January 29, 2017, 06:08:58 PM Can Kast join Sentido Futuro. It makes more sense for him, if he doesn't get things from Chile Vamos. It's possible, but unlikely. There is an important wing in Evopoli which gives more priority to being a liberal party than being part of the center-right that they indeed advocate moving to Sentido Futuro, but Kast is a bit more conservative than that wing, so unless he's pushed too far I don't see him leaving Chile Vamos. Plus, Sentido Futuro had a very negative result in the municipals and it is facing internal issues of its own, so joining that coalition right now doesn't look like a good move in the short and long term. I'd wager Kast probably believes (and rightly so) that he can get a lot more trying to move Chile Vamos to the center from the inside than the other alternative. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: Max Stirner on January 30, 2017, 06:37:17 AM Bachelet 2006-2010
Pinera 2010-2014 Bachelet 2014-2018 Pinera 2018-2022 Bachelet Pinera Bachelet Pinera etc Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: Lumine on January 30, 2017, 10:35:09 AM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, January 30th: Bachelet Approval: 18%/75% Forest Fires: Did the Government take the right decisions to face the emergency?: 22%/75% What was the cause of the forest fires?: Accidental 10%/ Intentional 75% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 24%, Guillier 18%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 2%, Parisi 2%, Others 6%, Undecided 45% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 38%, Guiller 24%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 34% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: Lumine on January 30, 2017, 10:40:07 AM Bachelet 2006-2010 Pinera 2010-2014 Bachelet 2014-2018 Pinera 2018-2022 Bachelet Pinera Bachelet Pinera etc Boy, that would be awful. Still, Bachelet did pledge never to run again for office, and I cannot see a way for her to do so successfully (although then again, I never expected Piñera to really stage a comeback). It could have been worse, though, Piñera has been running for President since 1993 (where he dropped out in a major scandal along with rival and future candidate Evelyn Matthei), 1999 (where he was pushed out by the rising Joaquin Lavin) and 2005 (where he went to the first round against Lavin, defeated him and then lost to Bachelet). Bachelet, by comparison, only rose to prominence in the Lagos government, she was unknown before. Also, Bachelet breaks a new record by becoming the President with the highest disapproval ratings in Chile since polling began (75% disapprove). Her 18% approval rating is also tied for the lowest approval, with her own numbers a few months ago. The awful tragedy of the forest fires is really taking its toll on her. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Bachelet breaks records of unpopularity Post by: DavidB. on January 30, 2017, 11:46:27 AM Absolutely great updates, Lumine, thank you so much.
I know Israel is very unpopular in many South American countries and that Chile has quite a sizeable Palestinian community, but are there any candidates/parties in Chile that are pro-Israel? Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Bachelet breaks records of unpopularity Post by: seb_pard on January 30, 2017, 11:59:35 AM Absolutely great updates, Lumine, thank you so much. I know Israel is very unpopular in many South American countries and that Chile has quite a sizeable Palestinian community, but are there any candidates/parties in Chile that are pro-Israel? One important thing is that the palestinian in Chile are generally middle to upper class, so they are represented across all parties (for example Jadue from the Communist Party, Tarud from the PPD, Hasbun from UDI, etc.) Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: seb_pard on January 30, 2017, 12:05:46 PM Probably I'm gonna vote for the Frente Amplio candidate (Claudia Sanhueza maybe?) in the first round, and if the runn-off is between Piñera and Guillier, blank maybe. Although if Guillier doesn't succumb to a very populist message (anti-immigrant rhetoric is my biggest fear) I would vote for him (I just can't accept Piñera returning to power). Very good job Lumine. Thanks, seb_pard! I would appreciate your insight regarding the left and particularly the Frente Amplio, my knowledge is rather limited there (I never considered Sanhueza for example, although she does seem a long shot). My condolences for the ongoing situation of the left, I am often very frustrated at the divisions on the right and the constant antics and stupidity often displayed by the UDI, but the left has like 20 different parties now and may end up divided in three or four coalitions at this rate. I fully expect a competitive election between Piñera and Guillier (I cannot believe how Guillier rises so fast without opening his mouth), seeing as the Frente Amplio will probably go to the polls divided and Sentido Futuro appears to be dead in the water. I'm not involved too much in the left, but I have a lot of friends who are very active in some parties (I studied in the catholic university between 2009 and 2013 and there I met many members from the NAU (basically the origin of Revolución Democratica). I think the main issue that bring so many division to the political field between coalitions is the 'Caudillo' nature of our politics (which is very strong in the mayoral election, but also on MEO, Parisi, etc.) Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Bachelet breaks records of unpopularity Post by: Lumine on January 30, 2017, 03:25:12 PM Absolutely great updates, Lumine, thank you so much. I know Israel is very unpopular in many South American countries and that Chile has quite a sizeable Palestinian community, but are there any candidates/parties in Chile that are pro-Israel? Thank you very much, David! I believe the descendents of Palestinian origin are estimated as being anywhere from 300,000 to 500,000 (the largest number anywhere outside the Arab World and Israel), but when it comes to politicians of Jewish or Palestinian descent you can find them across all parties (from Rodrigo Hinzpeter, Piñera's Interior Minister and close ally to relevant people in the left like Tomás Hirsch or many members of Bachelet's cabinets). Broadly speaking (and usually regardless of left or right), at the government level you usually find efforts to balance the relationship with both countries on a positive level (we recognize Palestine, for example, yet at the same time the Chilean military holds strong ties to Israel, which acts as one of its main military hardware suppliers). The relationship is evidently close to Palestine, though, whenever events take place in Gaza there's usually calls for a strong condemnation of Israel. But as seb_pard pointed out parties don't tend to be too vocal about it, the last time it was more broadly debated was in 2011 and in 2014, and while in that case it was the center-left that was more pro-Palestine, it wasn't that the right was pro-Israel. Indeed, it was under Piñera that we recognized Palestine. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Bachelet breaks records of unpopularity Post by: DavidB. on January 30, 2017, 03:44:04 PM Thanks for your responses, intriguing.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Bachelet breaks records of unpopularity Post by: Lumine on January 30, 2017, 04:08:35 PM There's a bit of an unforseen issue that could drastically change the outlook of the election, which I think it's better to explain now. As a result of the many reforms to the electoral laws when confidence in the political parties plummeted into nothingness, all parties were mandated to go through a process of re-inscription of its party members equivalent to the 0,25% of voters in the last parliamentary election, meaning every party needed to gather 17,500 signatures in 12 months with the process due to end in April.
It seemed like an easy target back then, but there's such a level of disatafiction and distrust in politics that all parties are struggling to get the signatures, and it's not an issue of the small parties, it's affecting the larger ones directly. The problem is that if a party fails to gather the signatures it will cease to be a legal party, and so it won't be able to nominate a Presidental candidate and oficially compete in the Parliamentary Election (unless their candidates go in the list of another party). This is going to such grave levels than virtually all parties, and particularly the splinter parties of the Frente Amplio appear in grave danger of ceasing to oficially exist or having to fuse with other parties to survive. To provide an example, if the Partido Radical or PPD fail to get the signatures (and it's possible it could happen), Guillier or Lagos would be out of the primary, unless they were able to gather signatures to run as independents or find another party (Guillier has a small back-up in the Izquierda Ciudadana party, but it's impossible such a small group would also get the signatures. All in all, it's quite a mess. In other news, the national convention of the Democracia Cristiana was suspended by Chairman Carolina Goic due to the forest fires. It is believed Goic is slowly cementing her leadership of the party, and many believe that once she holds the convention the party will indeed proclaim her the DC candidate for either the Nueva Mayoria primaries, or, less likely, the first round. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Bachelet breaks records of unpopularity Post by: seb_pard on February 03, 2017, 04:02:07 PM I found a very interesting map on the Congress' Library. It's the educational and economic level by Censal district of Metropolitan Region (where Santiago is)
() Basically Blue is highest level and red is lowest. The info is from 2002, so is a bit outdated, but I don't think that this scenario has changed too much. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Bachelet breaks records of unpopularity Post by: DavidB. on February 07, 2017, 05:18:06 PM The Chileans here may find this (http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.684415) to be interesting.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on February 07, 2017, 05:39:21 PM Bachelet 2006-2010 Pinera 2010-2014 Bachelet 2014-2018 Pinera 2018-2022 Bachelet Pinera Bachelet Pinera etc Makes Alan Garcia look weak. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Polls, Piñera and Guillier strong Post by: Lumine on February 07, 2017, 07:18:59 PM Bachelet 2006-2010 Pinera 2010-2014 Bachelet 2014-2018 Pinera 2018-2022 Bachelet Pinera Bachelet Pinera etc Makes Alan Garcia look weak. The ride never ends... To be fair, it's not the first time it happens. A large part of the XX Century in Chile was defined by the rivalry between Arturo Alessandri (1920-1924, 1925, 1932-1938) and General Carlos Ibañez del Campo (1927-1931, 1952-1928), both serving two terms and being fierce rivals while, ironically, never running against each other (Alessandri ran unsuccessfuly in 1931, Ibañez faced the same in 1942). The Chileans here may find this (http://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-1.684415) to be interesting. I can't see the full story, but in principle it wouldn't surprise me. One of the most fascinating aspects of Pinochet and the military regime is the level of cooperation on different matters they reached with different countries (with often contradicting stances). As far as I know we even sold weapons to Saddam Hussein during the 80's, a bit of an intrigue that even got a foreign journalist killed in Santiago when he seemingly got too close to the issue. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: Lumine on February 19, 2017, 12:16:36 PM The Presidential campaigns entered a period of rest through most of January and February (particularly because of those dreadful forest fires), but some events have been taking place as March looks like the decisive month for several candidates:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: Lumine on February 27, 2017, 03:40:57 PM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, February 27th: Bachelet Approval: 18%/73% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 25%, Guillier 17%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 3%, Parisi 2%, Goic 1%, Kast 1%, Insulza 1%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 39% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 41%, Guiller 22%, Lagos 2%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 34% Chile Vamos Primary: (among center-right, right voters) Piñera 68%, Ossandon 9%, F. Kast 7%, Espina 3%, Chahuan 2%, Undecided 11% Nueva Mayoria Primary: (among center-left, left voters) Guillier 66%, Lagos 7%, Insulza 7%, Goic 3%, Atria 1%, Undecided 16% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: seb_pard on March 03, 2017, 12:17:28 PM Some news from the left:
Yesterday, Alberto Mayol (a Sociology Professor and a fairly known political analyst here) announced his intention to run as a presidential candidate from the Broad Front. He has the support from Nueva Izquierda (New Left, a political party founded by former communist and copper union leader Cristian Cuevas). As far as I know, FA parties have until March 20th to propose candidates to run in the primaries in June 6th. The potential candidates are the following: Democratic Revolution: They are analyzing between Sebastian Depolo (the party’s president) and Claudia Sanhueza (economist and former communist, she participated in Bachelet’s electoral platform). Autonomous Left: Carlos Ruiz, an academic, he has a strong influence in the movement, but he is not known to the general population. I don’t think he has a chance. Power: They are promoting Luis Mesina as candidate. He is the leader of the No+AFP movement (a movement which aims to end the current Chilean pension system and reestablish a state-funded one). I think the chances of a FA presidential victory are slim, but if they make an interesting primary campaign they could aim to obtain 15%-20%. On the congressional part, FA aims to get 1 deputy per district (28 diputados). They currently have 3 (Giorgio Jackson, Gabriel Boric and Vlado Mirosevic). I think they could succeed, but they have to put an effort in the more rural parts of Chile (particularly in the south) which the Nueva Mayoria is still strong (on the left-on-center side). Another issue is that the Communist Party is going to run as part of NM, and unfortunately I think that situation could split the left electorate that is undecided between the Communist Party and some parties from the FA (e.g me). Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: Lumine on March 09, 2017, 08:54:25 AM Updated field:
Nueva Mayoria: (DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC) Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli) Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Will "decide" in March Senator Alberto Espina (RN) - Will decide in March PRO: Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced Todos: TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures Pais: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced Sentido Futuro: (Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal) Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative Frente Amplio: (RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others) Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced RD Chairman Sebastian Depolo (RD) - Speculative Economist Claudia Sanhueza (RD) - Speculative Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative Independent, Other: Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, 23,000 signatures (15,000 to go) Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures with DRP support Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced Businessman Leonardo Farkas (IND) - Speculative Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: Lumine on March 13, 2017, 11:39:58 AM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, March 13th: Bachelet Approval: 23%/68% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 26%, Guillier 17%, Ossandon 4%, Lagos 2%, Parisi 2%, Goic 1%, Kast 1%, Insulza 1%, Farkas 1%, Ominami 1%, Others 4%, Undecided 40% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 45%, Guiller 20%, Lagos 2%, Ossandon 2%, Other/None 31% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: Lumine on March 15, 2017, 09:18:40 AM Opinion Poll:
Criteria Research, March 15th: Bachelet Approval: 23%/71% Chile Vamos Primary: (among center-right, right voters) Piñera 71%, Ossandon 12%, F. Kast 12%, Undecided 5% Nueva Mayoria Primary: (among center-left, left voters) Guillier 62%, Goic 12%, Lagos 9%, Insulza 7%, Undecided 10%[/quote] Presidential: Voting Intention: Guillier 25%, Piñera 23%, Lagos 7%, Parisi 5%, Ossandon 4%, Ominami 3%, Jackson 3% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 44%, Guiller 29%, Lagos 3%, Other/None 24% Piñera/Guillier round: Guillier 41%, Piñera 36%, Undecided 23% Piñera/Lagos round: Piñera 42%, Lagos 15%, Undecided 43% Piñera/Insulza round: Piñera 40%, Insulza 22%, Undecided 38% Piñera/Goic round: Piñera 39%, Goic 18%, Undecided 43% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: seb_pard on March 19, 2017, 09:16:33 PM Some news worth to tell:
-It was published last week that Piñera avoided CLP 44 billions (66 Million dollars) though the purchase of zombie companies, which registered larges amount of losses. I don't think this is gonna hurt him, but is an additional episode of a long history of unethical behaviour. -Today was published that Bachelet youngest daughter has a lot near a place that a mining company has a project. Why is this news? The project was rejected a few weeks ago by regional authorities (although from what I know the project complied with the law and the rejection is due to some political rift, but that has nothing to do with Bachelet's daughter). I believe there is no story here, she has the lot since 2012 and is really small, but is going to hurt Bachelet I think. Nevertheless, this speaks very badly about Bachelet, because her daughter is just 24 years old and is not normal here for someone young to have land. -Tomorrow the Broad Front will publish the list of congressional candidates. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: Lumine on March 21, 2017, 08:57:41 AM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, March 20th: Bachelet Approval: 22%/68% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 24%, Guillier 16%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 2%, Goic 2%, Parisi 1%, Kast 1%, Insulza 1%, Ominami 1%, Mayol 1%, Others 6%, Undecided 42% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 44%, Guiller 17%, Lagos 3%, Ossandon 1%, Goic 1%, Other/None 34% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: EnglishPete on March 25, 2017, 01:27:43 PM Piñera announced his candidacy on Tuesday. UDI accepted him as their candidate for the Primaries at their convention yesterday. RN are expected to do the same at their convention today.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: Lumine on March 25, 2017, 02:26:26 PM Indeed! I'll do a more detailed write-up later, but the updated list of candidates is as follows:
Updated field: Nueva Mayoria: (DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC) Constitutional Lawyer Fernando Atria (PS) - Announced Former OAS Chairman Jose Miguel Insulza (PS) - Announced Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli) Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced PRO: Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced Todos: TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures Pais: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced Sentido Futuro: (Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal) Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative Frente Amplio: (RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others) Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Preparing a run RD Chairman Sebastian Depolo (RD) - Speculative Activist Luis Mesina (No+AFP's) - Speculative Economist Claudia Sanhueza (RD) - Speculative Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative Independent, Other: Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Ind) - Announced, 23,000 signatures (15,000 to go) Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Still ambiguous Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera back on the campaign trail Post by: Lumine on March 26, 2017, 06:16:10 PM Bit of a dubious one, but:
Opinion Poll: UDD, March 26th: Presidential: Voting Intention (closed): Piñera 40%, Guillier 32%, Ossandon 10%, Goic 7%, Kast 7%, Lagos 4%. Would you vote for Piñera: Yes/Maybe 50%, No 36%, Undecided 14% What is your main reason to vote for Piñera: Economy 60%, Experience 18%, Not from the Nueva Mayoria 9%, He's the Right-Wing candidate 4%, Undecided 9%. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera back on the campaign trail Post by: Lumine on March 27, 2017, 05:06:10 PM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, March 27th: Bachelet Approval: 23%/67% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 25%, Guillier 15%, Ossandon 3%, Lagos 3%, Goic 3%, Sanchez 2%, Parisi 1%, Kast 1%, Ominami 1%, Others 4%, Undecided 42% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 50%, Guiller 16%, Lagos 2%, Ossandon 1%, Goic 1%, Other/None 30% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera setting the stage Post by: seb_pard on March 28, 2017, 07:38:39 PM Frente Amplio: (RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others) Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Preparing a run RD Chairman Sebastian Depolo (RD) - Speculative Activist Luis Mesina (No+AFP's) - Speculative Economist Claudia Sanhueza (RD) - Speculative Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative Btw last weekend I went to the beach and there were many Jose Antonio Kast Signs, I don't think that would translate to votes, but he is actually very serious in this venture. Guiller has had some bad weeks, specially after Piñera's campaign launch and some bad headlines in the media. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera back on the campaign trail Post by: Lumine on April 01, 2017, 04:17:11 PM April 1st:
Chile Vamos:
Nueva Mayoria:
Frente Amplio:
Updated field: Nueva Mayoria: (DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC) Former President Ricardo Lagos (PPD-PS) - Announced, endorsed by PPD Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced, endorsed by PRSD Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced, endorsed by DC Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli) Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced, endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced PRO: Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced, endorsed by PRO Todos: TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures (6,000 so far) Pais: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced, endorsed by Pais Sentido Futuro: (Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal) Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative Frente Amplio: (RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH and Partido Liberal, among others) Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Announced, , endorsed by RD and MA. Activist Luis Mesina (No+AFP's) - Speculative Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative Independent, Other: Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Announced, 33,000 signatures (5,000 to go) Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures Freemason Grand Master Luis Rivera (IND) – Announced Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Insulza drops out Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on April 01, 2017, 04:44:54 PM I don't know if you explained earlier, but why was Pinera so unpopular during his time in office?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Insulza drops out Post by: Lumine on April 01, 2017, 05:02:36 PM I don't know if you explained earlier, but why was Pinera so unpopular during his time in office? There were a lot of factors, but I would say there were two basic things that made the most impact: First, that Piñera was an able administrator but a "good politician" in the sense that he had no narrative, nor a way to capitalize on his accomplishments or when he scored a success. Add to that his constant malapropisms and he also became a figure of ridicule. What killed his presidency in a way was 2011. By the end of 2010 he was on a high note (particularly after the successful rescue of 33 miners trapped in a collapsed mine), but social movements scored several successful hits against the government (starting with fuel protests in Magallanes) which hurt his standing. And then the student movement of 2011 derailed his presidency, making his approval ratings collapse when the government made a mess of the process and was seen as unable to provide necessary reforms or solutions. From there on Piñera was unable to rebound no matter how hard he tried, his approvals being so low (although in retrospect they were actually much higher than Bachelet) that during the 2012 Municipal elections most of the right-wing candidates wouldn't even consider including Piñera in their propaganda. In the end the 2013 election took attention off La Moneda and Piñera was able to slowly recover, leaving in March 2014 with about 50% approval. The general sense is that Bachelet should rebound as well on her last year, but it's been such an unpopular presidency that it's by no means certain. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Insulza drops out Post by: Lumine on April 02, 2017, 06:10:52 PM April 2:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Lagos's last stand Post by: Lumine on April 10, 2017, 07:27:03 AM April 10th:
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: Lumine on April 10, 2017, 08:58:27 AM A few minutes ago, former President Ricardo Lagos announced he was dropping out of the race, the refusal of PS to nominate him having ended his chances. Despite having started the presidential campaign all by himself last September and having successfully undermined and sunk the campaigns of Isabel Allende, Jorge Tarud and Jose Miguel Insulza Lagos was unable to rise in the polls, seen by many as too old, too outdated to be a candidate. His withdrawal leaves the Nueva Mayoria at a confusing moment, having lost its entire presidential field (minus Carolina Goic) to the rise of Senator Alejandro Guillier. Updated field: Nueva Mayoria: (DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC) Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced, endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS and IC. Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced, endorsed by DC. Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli) Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced, endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI. Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced, endorsed by Evopoli. PRO: Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced, endorsed by PRO. Todos: TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures (6,000 so far) Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures Pais: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced, endorsed by Pais. Sentido Futuro: (Ciudadanos + Amplitud + Red Liberal) Lawyer and Academic Sebastian Sichel (C’s) - Speculative, probably won't field a candidate. Frente Amplio: (RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH, PP and Partido Liberal, among others) Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced, endorsed by ND. Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Announced, endorsed by RD and MA. Activist Luis Mariano Rendon (PP) - Announced, endorsed by PP. Activist Luis Mesina (No+AFP's) - Speculative Academic Carlos Ruiz (IND) - Speculative Former Presidential Candidate Tomas Hirsch (PH) - Speculative Independent, Other: Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Announced, 33,000 signatures (5,000 to go) Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures and endorsed by DRP and minor parties. Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: EnglishPete on April 11, 2017, 09:30:19 AM Goic looking likely to drop out of the NM primary
Quote SANTIAGO, April 10 (Reuters) - Center-left Chilean presidential candidate Carolina Goic cast doubt on Monday on the possibility of participating in a primary round, heightening the chance of a fractured left heading into the South American nation's November election. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-4398990/Center-left-Chilean-presidential-hopeful-says-skip-primary.html"After Lagos dropped out... without doubt I consider the idea of a primary much more difficult," Goic told reporters on Monday, adding that a final decision would be made at a Christian Democratic Party (DC) meeting on April 29. Many members of the DC have already promoted the idea of skipping the Nueva Mayoria's primaries, set to take place in July. Many say frontrunner Guillier is too far to the left to represent their interests. Also J A Kast reports that he already has enough signatures to register as a candidate. He needs 38,000 although he aiming for 60,000 http://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2017/04/10/853492/Jose-Antonio-Kast-Ya-tengo-las-firmas-para-ser-candidato.html Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: Lumine on April 13, 2017, 08:36:41 AM Opinion Poll:
Criteria Research, April 13th: Bachelet Approval: 18%/75% Chile Vamos Primary: (among center-right, right voters) Piñera 71%, Ossandon 17%, F. Kast 6%, Undecided 6% Nueva Mayoria Primary: (among center-left, left voters) Guillier 70%, Goic 15%, Lagos 7%, Undecided 9% Frente Amplio Primary: (among left voters) Sanchez 84%, Mesina 5%, Mayol 4%, Undecided 8% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 33%, Guillier 18%, Sanchez 11%, Parisi 6%, Ossandon 4%, Lagos 2%, Ominami 2% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 54%, Guiller 18%, Sanchez 6%, Parisi 2%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, Lagos 1%, Other/None 15% Piñera/Guillier round: Piñera 41%, Guillier 37%, Undecided 22% Piñera/Sanchez round: Piñera 43%, Sanchez 32%, Undecided 26% Piñera/Lagos round: Piñera 45%, Lagos 13%, Undecided 42% Piñera/Goic round: Piñera 45%, Goic 18%, Undecided 37% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: Lumine on April 16, 2017, 03:51:56 PM April 16th:
Updated field: Nueva Mayoria: (DC, PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC) Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced, endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS and IC. Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced, endorsed by DC (?). Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli) Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced, endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI. Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced. Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced, endorsed by Evopoli. Democracia Cristiana: Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Increasingly likely. PRO: Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced, endorsed by PRO. Todos: TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures. Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures. Pais: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced, endorsed by Pais. Union Patriótica: Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Announced, endorsed by UPA. Frente Amplio: (RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH, MSA and Partido Liberal, among others) Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced, endorsed by ND and MSA. Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Announced, endorsed by RD, MA and PH. Independent, Other: Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Announced, has enough signatures. Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures. Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures and endorsed by DRP and minor parties. Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced. Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: Maxwell on April 16, 2017, 04:26:04 PM What little I've read about Pinera is that he's kind of a goof and not a great politician. Is he the only candidate on the right with the caliber enough to run for President?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: seb_pard on April 16, 2017, 04:49:16 PM What little I've read about Pinera is that he's kind of a goof and not a great politician. Is he the only candidate on the right with the caliber enough to run for President? Is important to note that although he is very goofy and looks very awkward he is a very talented politician. His real weakness are his investments, he suffers financial incontinence. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: Lumine on April 16, 2017, 05:02:02 PM What little I've read about Pinera is that he's kind of a goof and not a great politician. Is he the only candidate on the right with the caliber enough to run for President? Is important that although he is very goofy and looks very awkward he is a very talented politician. His real weakness are his investments, he suffers financial incontinence. Couldn't have said it better, sadly there isn't anyone else on the right that can both unite the sector to a decent extent and win. Jose Antonio Kast is too right-wing and now running outside the coalition, Felipe Kast too moderate and liberal to command support from the conservatives, and Ossandon too boisterous, and has burned several bridges with potential allies. We can add to that the aftermath of the 2013 election, in which several potential candidates for the right ran with terrible results (Golborne was forced to drop out, Allamand was badly bruised after a primary loss, Longueira collapsed due to his "nervous breakdown" and Matthei never had a real shot at winning) and stopped being future candidates for president. So for the time being it can only be Piñera, who can boast of having experience and a successful record on the economy despite his other mistakes, who has a profile of being relatively moderate and close to the center on some issues (particularly close with voters who normally go for the Christian Democrats), and who has been skillful enough to be nominated by three our of four parties inside Chile Vamos. He is very much prone to malapropisms and goofy moments, but I wouldn't underestimate Piñera. Not everybody can remain as a protagonist in the political stage after 30 years, and certainly there's few people who can survive as much as Piñera has managed to so far. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: RodPresident on April 16, 2017, 05:10:52 PM Would a coalition between Sentido Futuro+Parisi+DC viable with Goic as front banner?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on April 16, 2017, 05:16:42 PM Wow, how come Lagos is doing so terribly?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: Lumine on April 16, 2017, 05:19:00 PM Would a coalition between Sentido Futuro+Parisi+DC viable with Goic as front banner? Not a chance for arrangements including Parisi. There's not much to agree on between DC and Parisi, whose taking a sharp turn towards staunch social conservatism to chase the evangelical vote rather than remain a centrist populist of sorts. As to Sentido Futuro that's actually a fascinating possibility, and I wouldn't say it's 100% impossible. Ciudadanos, which makes up of half the Sentido Futuro bloc is a party which includes many former DC party members, and Velasco probably has a lot in common with Goic. On the other hand, Amplitud is still a liberal center to center-right party with a lot of Piñera supporters forming part of it. I would say it depends on the parliamentary negotiations. If the Nueva Mayoria parties punish the DC by excluding them of their parliamentary list, then there is a small chance for Goic to seek arrangements with Sentido Futuro, who are virtually assured of not running a presidential candidate of their own. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: seb_pard on April 16, 2017, 05:21:04 PM Parisi is a joke candidate and should be treated like that. I honestly believe that his campaign is a ponzi scheme to collect the post-election refund.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: Lumine on April 16, 2017, 05:22:32 PM Wow, how come Lagos is doing so terribly? Too old. Not because of age itself, but because Lagos has fully become a figure of the past seen as too outdated to lead the country. Add to that the fact that his reputation has tanked from the heights of 2006 because of corruption cases that took place under his government, the flak of the Transantiago transport system, and the fact that with Chilean politics having moved to the left Lagos is not seen as a credible candidate for the left by many, particularly younger votes. Lagos showed he is still a brilliant political operation due to how effective he was at eliminating virtually the entire primary field of Nueva Mayoria minus Goic and Guillier (a very successful "scorched earth" strategy from his point of view), but he has stopped being a credible candidate. That's why he didn't manage to catch on, and why PS dropped him like a rock to back the candidate who was polling better. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: Lumine on April 16, 2017, 05:23:43 PM Parisi is a joke candidate and should be treated like that. I honestly believe that his campaign is a ponzi scheme to collect the post-election refund. That too. He might do somewhat well if he is actually successful at garnering a large part of the evangelical vote, but it is truly embarrassing to see him as a presidential candidate again. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: seb_pard on April 16, 2017, 05:36:38 PM Wow, how come Lagos is doing so terribly? I think the reactions after he loss against Guillier the endorsement of the PS reaffirms the above. All the "leaders of opinion", the typical establishment journalist, the DC and the right wing lamented the result and commented that this was a evidence of anarchy and whatever. He needs to retire. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Ricardo Lagos drops out Post by: seb_pard on April 16, 2017, 05:41:57 PM Wow, how come Lagos is doing so terribly? Too old. Not because of age itself, but because Lagos has fully become a figure of the past seen as too outdated to lead the country. Add to that the fact that his reputation has tanked from the heights of 2006 because of corruption cases that took place under his government, the flak of the Transantiago transport system, and the fact that with Chilean politics having moved to the left Lagos is not seen as a credible candidate for the left by many, particularly younger votes. Lagos showed he is still a brilliant political operation due to how effective he was at eliminating virtually the entire primary field of Nueva Mayoria minus Goic and Guillier (a very successful "scorched earth" strategy from his point of view), but he has stopped being a credible candidate. That's why he didn't manage to catch on, and why PS dropped him like a rock to back the candidate who was polling better. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Will the Nueva Mayoria split? Post by: Lumine on April 16, 2017, 05:44:39 PM Agreed, although I'll note that unlike Guillier, Lagos actually had political views, ideas and a platform, so I certainly rate him higher.
In that sense, consider me amongst the right wingers who lamented his departure, lol Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up Post by: Lumine on April 29, 2017, 06:28:54 PM April 29th:
Another DC Convention was held today, holding a vote on whether to enter the first round or fight a losing battle against Guillier in the Nueva Mayoria Primaries. Despite heavy pressure from the Party Chairmen of the coalition, Guillier and particularly President Bachelet, the vote from the internal party delegates was 379 to 223 (62% to 38%) to go with Senator Goic to the first round. With the Nueva Mayoria parties making it clear they will not accept a parliamentary arrangement with the DC should they go the first round, it appears the governing coalition will indeed fully split at the election. Updated field: Nueva Mayoria: (PS, PPD, PRSD, IC, MAS, PC) Senator Alejandro Guiller (PRSD) - Announced, endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS, IC, PPD and PC. Chile Vamos: (UDI, RN, PRI, Evopoli) Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Announced, endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI. Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) - Announced. Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) – Announced, endorsed by Evopoli. Democracia Cristiana: Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Announced, endorsed by DC. PRO: Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Announced, endorsed by PRO. Todos: TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures. Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Announced, gathering signatures. Pais: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Announced, endorsed by Pais. Union Patriótica: Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Announced, endorsed by UPA. Frente Amplio: (RD, MA, ND, PH, IL, IA, Poder, PI, PH, MSA and Partido Liberal, among others) Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Announced, endorsed by ND and MSA. Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Announced, endorsed by RD, MA and PH. Independent, Other: Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Announced, has enough signatures. Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures. Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Announced, gathering signatures and endorsed by DRP and minor parties. Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Announced. Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Announced. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up Post by: RodPresident on April 30, 2017, 12:23:58 PM Would a Sentido Futuro, Evopoli and DC coalition possible by now? And would they have chances to get into runoff?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up Post by: Nordenskjöld on May 03, 2017, 06:43:49 PM Would a Sentido Futuro, Evopoli and DC coalition possible by now? And would they have chances to get into runoff? I'm an Evopoli voter and I wouldn't be comfortable in a coalition with the DC. The Christian Democrats in Chile –in my opinion- are more social democratic than the Christian Democrats in for example Germany, and so I'd rather have Evopoli –centre-right movement- in a coalition with RN, the UDI and the PRI than with the DC. I don't think it'd be plausible now, but maybe in a few years. However, as I said, I think Evopoli is better off with the conservatives. I just don't trust the DC. And also I don't think the DC will wanna be apart from their PS coalition so suddenly. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up Post by: EnglishPete on May 10, 2017, 12:47:59 PM Latest poll from Cadem 3-5 May
Piñera 24% (+2) Guillier 15% (-1) Sánchez 8% (+2) Ossandón 4% (-) Goic 3% (+1) Parisi 2% (-1) F. Kast 1% (-) Enríquez-Ominami 1% (+1) http://plazapublica.cl/wp-content/uploads/Track-PP173-Mayo-S1-VF.pdf Looks to me like Sanchez is catching up with Guillier. I know that there's a long way to go but do Chilean forum members think that a Pinera/Sanchez second round is likely? Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up Post by: seb_pard on May 13, 2017, 11:17:17 PM Latest poll from Cadem 3-5 May Piñera 24% (+2) Guillier 15% (-1) Sánchez 8% (+2) Ossandón 4% (-) Goic 3% (+1) Parisi 2% (-1) F. Kast 1% (-) Enríquez-Ominami 1% (+1) http://plazapublica.cl/wp-content/uploads/Track-PP173-Mayo-S1-VF.pdf Looks to me like Sanchez is catching up with Guillier. I know that there's a long way to go but do Chilean forum members think that a Pinera/Sanchez second round is likely? I should add that the chilean press (which is pretty right wing and very concentrated in a few actors) has been very positive about Beatriz Sanchez and also some politicians from the right. I think that is a dangerous game from them, because I believe they think she is unelectable but I really don't think that is entirely true. The chilean electorate is pretty left wing and most of the people don't see Beatriz Sanchez as an extremist (unlike Roxana Miranda, for example). Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up Post by: seb_pard on May 13, 2017, 11:23:34 PM I'm planning to write about Chilean political parties and a description of the country and political districts, but I'm very busy studying for my CFA exam level II, but I except to start writing some summaries about the parties. Luminee, it could be great if you do this with me.
The following is a short summary I wrote about chilean politics, made especially for those who doesn't know very much about the country. Chile is a presidential republic. The country is very centralized and the regions (15 in total) have little power (even the Intendents, head of every region, are appointed by the President). We have a bicameral congress, composed by a Senate (38 seats), and the Chamber of Deputies (120 seats), both located in Valparaiso. Since 1990 the legislative districts have remained unchanged, with 18 senatorial circumscriptions (2 senators each) and 60 districts (2 deputies each). The electoral system, called Sistema Binominal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Binomial_voting) has had a great influence on Chile’s political development in the last 25 years, and ended up consolidating a political system with 2 big coalitions, marginalizing other political groups with a sizable support. We have an electoral reform last year, ending the Binominal system. Our new parliamentary will function as follow: The chamber of deputies will be composed of 150 deputies (an increase of 30) while districts have declined to 28 (each choosing between 3 and 8 deputies, using a D’hont system). In the case of the Senate, it will have 60 members and 15 circumscriptions (one per region each choosing between 2 and 5 senators). The above-mentioned reform, long awaited by a large chunk of the population, will have a great impact on the political development of Chile. It could even be said that the DC’s decision to go directly to the presidential elections (instead of primaries) is the first evidence of a new political landscape. Chile has a turbulent (but very interesting) political history, but due to the many things we’ve gone through, is better to analyze here our post-Pinochet politics. Since 1990, in Chile we have seen two big coalitions, the Concertación (now New Majority), composed by several center left parties (and now the communists and other minor parties) and the Alianza (now Chile Vamos), historically composed by the UDI and RN (now also Evopoli and the PRI). To analyze Chile’s political countries is a little futile if you don’t take in account the important role these coalitions have played, and sometimes. The current President is Michelle Bachelet, a physician and socialist politician which is in her second non-consecutive period with a deep crisis within her coalition, the New Majority. The 38-member senate has the following composition: New Majority (21) DC (Christian Democrats, center to center left) – 7 PS (Socialist Party, center left) – 6 PPD (Party for Democracy, center left) – 6 MAS (Broad Social Movement, left) – 1 1 Independent (Alejandro Guillier, current presidential candidate). Chile Vamos (14) UDI (Independent Democratic Union, right wing) – 7 RN (National Renewal, center right) – 6 1 Independent (Jaime Orpis). Other groups Patagonial Regional Democracy (Big tent)– 1 Amplitud (center right) – 1 1 without party (Antonio Horvarth, from Aysen, former RN). The 120-member chamber of deputies has the following composition: New Majority (67) DC – 20 PS – 16 PPD – 14 PRSD (Radical Social Democratic Party, center left) – 6 PC (Communist Party, left wing) – 6 IC (Citizen left, left wing) – 1 4 independents. Chile Vamos ( 47) UDI – 27 RN – 13 Evopoli (Political Evolution, center right) – 1 6 independents Broad Front (left wing) (3) 1 from the Liberal Party, 1 from RD (Democratic Revolution, left wing) and 1 from Autonomous Left. Amplitud have 2 deputies and Miras (Regional and Agrarian Independent Movement, the political vehicle of Alejandra Sepulveda) has 1. (Please correct me about any spelling mistake, I have a very bad spanish and a worst english, so, any chance to improve is welcome!). Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up Post by: seb_pard on May 14, 2017, 07:49:34 PM New weekly Cadem poll
Sebastian Piñera 24 (-) Alejandro Guillier 15 (-) Beatriz Sanchez 9 (+1) Manuel Ossandon 4 (-) Carolina Goic 3 (-) Felipe Kast 1 (-) Marco Enriquez-Ominami 1 (-) Franco Parisi 1 (-1) Others 3 (-1) Among age demographics 18-34 years old: Piñera 22 Sanchez 13 Guillier 13 35-54 years old: Piñera 24 Guillier 16 Sanchez 8 55+: Piñera 28 Guillier 18 Sanchez 7 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up Post by: seb_pard on May 17, 2017, 06:35:20 PM New Criteria Research poll
Sebastián Piñera 33% Beatriz Sanchez 21% Alejandro Guillier 19% Franco Parisi 6% (lol) Carolina Goic 3% MEO 3% Jose Antonio Kast 3% Roxana Miranda 1% Run-off: Piñera vs Sanchez Sanchez 42% Piñera 41% Piñera vs Guillier Piñera 41% Guillier 40% Sorry about Goic's color, but I think that yellow fits perfectly with the DC Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: Lumine on May 18, 2017, 12:53:34 PM May 18th:
With Nueva Mayoria formally split (all non-DC parties have endorsed Guillier, and there's heavy talk of rebranding the coalition) and Guillier searching for signatures to enter the first round, Chile Vamos and the Frente Amplio are gearing up for their primaries on early July, hoping to achieve high levels of turnout in a show of strenght for their candidates. Former Presidential candidate Roxana Miranda (far-left, 1,27% in the 2013 Election) joins the field, a critic of the old parties and the Frente Amplio alike. Beatriz Sanchez is the Frente Amplio nominee in all but name (inching closer and closer to Guillier in the polls, with challenger Alberto Mayor not even surpassing 2% in primary polls), whereas the fight is turning more bitter inside Chile Vamos, with Senator Ossandon continuing his ceaseless attacks on Piñera as tensions rise due to the negotiation for the primary debates and the parliamentary election. Political scandals continue to develop, on one side to the questionable investments of Piñera, and particularly this week due to the news that the Partido Socialista (PS) had enormous sums of money invested in countless companies, some of them linked for example to Mr. Ponce Lerou, Augusto Pinochet's son-in-law. All in all, things are starting to get fun. Updated field: Nueva Mayoria: Senator Alejandro Guiller (Ind) - Endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS, IC, PPD and PC. Chile Vamos: Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI. Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) - Endorsed by Evopoli. Frente Amplio: Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Endorsed by RD, MA, PH, Poder and IA. Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Endorsed by ND, MSA and IC. Democracia Cristiana: Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Endorsed by DC. PRO: Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Endorsed by PRO. Todos: TV Personality Nicolas Larrain (Todos) - Gathering signatures. Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Gathering signatures. Pais: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Endorsed by Pais. ANDHA: Former candidate Roxana Miranda (ANDHA) - Endorsed by ANDHA. Union Patriótica: Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Endorsed by UPA. Independent: Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Has reached enough signatures Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Gathering signatures. Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Gathering signatures. Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Gathering signatures. Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Gathering signatures. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up Post by: EnglishPete on May 18, 2017, 12:59:41 PM New Criteria Research poll Sebastián Piñera 33% Beatriz Sanchez 21% Alejandro Guillier 19% Franco Parisi 6% (lol) Carolina Goic 3% MEO 3% Jose Antonio Kast 3% Roxana Miranda 1% Run-off: Piñera vs Sanchez Sanchez 42% Piñera 41% Piñera vs Guillier Piñera 41% Guillier 40% Sorry about Goic's color, but I think that yellow fits perfectly with the DC Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic to first round, Nueva Mayoria break up Post by: seb_pard on May 18, 2017, 07:26:45 PM New Criteria Research poll Sebastián Piñera 33% Beatriz Sanchez 21% Alejandro Guillier 19% Franco Parisi 6% (lol) Carolina Goic 3% MEO 3% Jose Antonio Kast 3% Roxana Miranda 1% Run-off: Piñera vs Sanchez Sanchez 42% Piñera 41% Piñera vs Guillier Piñera 41% Guillier 40% Sorry about Goic's color, but I think that yellow fits perfectly with the DC From the more pro Chile Vamos media (I'm pointing directly at El Mercurio, but also Copesa and Mega Tv in a lesser level) I can't tell. I have the same feeling from last week, right wing people still don't see Beatriz Sanchez (and the Frente Amplio) as a threat, they still see her as a project from some college boys. But as Luminee said, this is getting interesting. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on May 18, 2017, 07:41:17 PM Political scandals continue to develop, on one side to the questionable investments of Piñera, and particularly this week due to the news that the Partido Socialista (PS) had enormous sums of money invested in countless companies, some of them linked for example to Mr. Ponce Lerou, Augusto Pinochet's son-in-law. All in all, things are starting to get fun. From what I reading only the committee had knowledge about the Portfolio's composition. The main mistake probably was not to invest in some companies, but I can't see something illegal or unethical, unlike other parties using fake bills from private companies to fund them o pay their members during opposition time (I see not only UDI, but also the PPD, which I think is Chile's worst party). And the criticism I see from some people is the typical "Oh a communist with an iphone or North Face". Maybe I have a bias because I work in the financial sector but I can't see something bad here. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: Lumine on May 22, 2017, 04:51:26 PM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, May 22nd: Bachelet Approval: 22%/67% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 26% (+2) Guillier 14% (-1) Sanchez 8% (-1) Ossandon 4% Goic 3% Parisi 2% (+1) F. Kast 1% Ominami 1% J. A. Kast 1% (+1) Others 4% (+1) Undecided 36% (-3) Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 54%, Guiller 18%, Sanchez 4%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, Ominami 1%, Parisi 1%, Other/None 19% It's a bit of a lazy thing to do, but if you add candidates accounting for coalitions you get: Chile Vamos: 32% Nueva Mayoria: 17% Frente Amplio: 8% Others: 7% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on May 25, 2017, 07:40:05 PM Excellent although non-electoral news.
The government issued to schools a decrete (a circular) on April 27 about the rights of trans students. I remember some bishops made some noise and I didn't pay too much attention, but today I read an article in El Mostrador and really I think this is a real development that aims to a more inclusive society. The document says that schools should implement the following concrete measures: 1. The use of inclusive language to erase gender stereotypes. 2. Promote diverse spaces of reflection, capacitation and support for members of the educational community, with the objective of assured, promote and guard the rights of trans students. 3. The educational community should always (without any exception) should treat the trans child by the social name independent of the legal name. 4. Trans students have the right to wear the uniform and/or accessories that they considered adequate with their gender (note: In chile almost all schools use uniform). 5. Trans students should be provided of easiness about the use of bathroom and showers, according to their own needs in the process they are living, respecting their gender identity. In addition to the measures previously mentioned, schools are encouraged to implement more inclusive policies. Institutions that don't comply with the document will be subject to administrative sanctions. It won't resolve all the challenges with respect to LGBT rights , but it is a good step. Note: If you're interested about this and know some spanish, you can read more here: http://www.elmostrador.cl/braga/2017/05/25/que-es-lo-que-exige-realmente-la-circular-de-educacion-que-protege-los-derechos-de-los-estudiantes-trans/ I'm very happy :D Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on June 06, 2017, 10:47:06 PM Now that I have more free time (no more CFA for a while) I'm preparing an introduction to Chilean parties (very difficult due to UK's election, go Corbyn :D), that I hope it would be useful to users that don't know about my country's politics. Lets start with the right wing coalition Chile Vamos:
Chile Vamos Chile Vamos is the right-wing coalition of Chile and the main opposition. It’s currently composed of 4 parties: Independent Democratic Union (UDI), National Renewal (RN), Political Evolution (Evopoli) and the Independent Regionalist Party (PRI). Although CV was founded in 2015, is basically the new name of the Alianza por Chile, the traditional alliance of UDI and RN (in Chile we like to change the name of our coalitions so we convince ourselves that by changing the name, it will be something different). I’m going to give a brief of every party of CV UDI Is not easy for me to talk about this party, because is basically one of the most polarizing of the national parties (along with the Communist Party). The UDI is a right-wing party, very conservative on social issues and followers of the Chicago School on economics. The party was founded by Jaime Guzman, the ideological architect of Pinochet’s constitution and the most important ideologue the right had had in Chile. Guzman was murdered in 1991 by members of the guerrilla group Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic Front (the military wing of the Communist party during the Pinochet government) and he became an icon in this party. Members of the UDI follow a very particular ideology called Gremialismo (Guildism) formulated by Jaime Guzman in the 60’s. Gremialismo propose the independence of the so called intermediate bodies but basically is a justification to avoid the political role of social organizations (e.g Prevent organizations like unions from being left wing). The Gremialistas achieved a great prominence in 1967 when they opposed the reform movement of the Catholic University (my university :)). They were capable of create a strong movement that reached great power in the University and the country. Most of the leaders of the Gremialismo are now the leaders of the party (most of them are senators). Nowadays the UDI is the largest political party (the obtain on average between 18% and 25% of the vote). They are particularly strong with the upper classes and the south’s rural areas. They have a strong message of being a “popular” party, with a strong support of lower classes, but I don’t think there is a empirical evidence of that, except on some regions of the Chilean south. But one problem the party has is that most of their population don’t like them. Electoral results (Congress): Year-% of vote in Chambers of deputies-% of vote in Senate 1989 – 9.17% - 5.17% 1993 – 12.5% - 10.15% 1997 – 14.45% - 17.19% 2001 – 25.18% - 15.18% 2005 – 22.34% - 21.56% 2009 – 23.04% - 21.56% 2013 – 18.92% - 14.69% RN I don’t think there is too much difference between UDI and RN on some economic issues, but RN is clearly a more diverse party. You can find very broad range of right wing politicians here, for example Ossandon, who has a populist message (he was mayor of one of the most populous communes, Puente Alto, which is a mix of middle class and some very poor and dangerous neighborhoods), Sebastian Piñera (now independent, but this is his party), Andres Allamand and Carlos Larrain. I think one of the advantaged of RN in front of Udi is that the party is not seen as sectarian as their allies, and people are more prone to support them (see Sebastian Piñera). One problem is that the party don’t have a coherent message rely too much on the popularity of some candidates, but they don’t have a clear identity and you can see now with the feud between Piñera and Ossandon. Electoral results (Congress): 1989 – 18.28% - 10.76% 1993 – 16.31% - 14.92% 1997 – 16.77% - 14.85% 2001 – 13.77% - 19.74% 2005 – 14.12% - 10.80% 2009 – 17.82% - 20.19% 2013 – 14.90% - 16.24% Evopoli Evopoli was founded by Felipe Kast and other politicians in 2012 with the intention to create a new center right, with a liberal message. I am very surprised with the popularity of this party with the right-wing people under 30. Although the party has a fresh message I wouldn’t consider a liberal party, I can’t compare their message with parties like FDP or D66. But I think their development is very interesting, specially with Kast as their leader (I don’t like him, but he has a bright future as a leader of the right). The base of the party is not clear yet because they only have one congressman (Kast) and this is their first election at a national level. PRI With all honestly, I think this is a joke party, it was founded by some Christian Democrats politician during the first government of Bachelet and have some politicians with some regional support. I don’t think they should be classify as a center right party, they are big tent (but they apparently have an excellent relationship with Piñera). Electoral results (Congress): 2009 – 4% - 2.47% 2013 – 1.15% - 0 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: Lumine on June 19, 2017, 02:17:44 PM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, June 19th: Bachelet Approval: 27%/62% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 25% Guillier 13% Sanchez 9% Ossandon 6% (+1) Goic 2% (+1) F. Kast 2% (+1) Mayol 2% (+1) Parisi 1% Ominami 1% Others 5% Undecided 34% (-6) Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 56%, Guiller 14%, Sanchez 4%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, F. Kast 1%, Other/None 22% If you consider coalitions: Chile Vamos: 33% Nueva Mayoria: 15% Frente Amplio: 11% Others: 7% In other (minor) news, quixotic candidate and TV personality Nicolas Larrain drops out today to endorse Felipe Kast (and the eventual Chile Vamos nominee), leaving the field as follows: Updated field: Nueva Mayoria: Senator Alejandro Guiller (Ind) - Endorsed by PRSD, PS, MAS, IC, PPD and PC. Chile Vamos: Former President Sebastian Piñera (Ind) - Endorsed by PRI, RN and UDI. Senator Manuel Jose Ossandon (Ind) Deputy Felipe Kast (Evopoli) - Endorsed by Evopoli. Frente Amplio: Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (RD) - Endorsed by RD, MA, PH, Poder and IA. Political Analyst Alberto Mayol (ND) - Endorsed by ND, MSA and IC. Democracia Cristiana: Senator Carolina Goic (DC) - Endorsed by DC. PRO: Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) - Endorsed by PRO. Todos: Party Chairman Nicolas Shea (Todos) - Gathering signatures. Pais: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) - Endorsed by Pais. ANDHA: Former candidate Roxana Miranda (ANDHA) - Endorsed by ANDHA. Union Patriótica: Party Chairman Eduardo Artés (UPA) - Endorsed by UPA. Independent: Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (IND) - Has reached enough signatures Lawyer and Academic Carola Canelo (IND) - Gathering signatures. Former Presidential Candidate Franco Parisi (IND) - Gathering signatures. Former Deputy Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (IND) - Gathering signatures. Former Presidential Candidate Marcel Claude (IND) - Gathering signatures. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on June 19, 2017, 08:21:43 PM The primaries officially started last week, so the main channels must broadcast the ads at prime time.
The ads of the first day are the following: Chile Vamos Sebastian Piñera https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n-or6rBpG9o Felipe Kast https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lg9M2ZRC8ik Manuel Jose Ossandon https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6l4p_iWQXrY Broad Front Beatriz Sanchez https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bi2xJo-ykm8 Alberto Mayol https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DI7JkqrKD74 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on June 29, 2017, 11:12:06 PM We have the primaries this sunday. The turnout is going to be probably very low (due to the weather, the finals of Confederations cup and lack of interest) but election day is actually very fun in chile, the voted are counted live and the process is very fast.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: mgop on June 30, 2017, 04:32:18 AM will left parties support each other in second round?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on June 30, 2017, 12:14:08 PM Based on what the party leaders are saying yes, but I really think that the support is meaningless. For example in 2009, MEO endorsed Frei in the second round but he was very reluctant and in the endorsing event he refereed Frei as the "candidate of the 29% percent" all the time. The thing is the turnout, based on what the candidates will act during the year until November would say a lot about the enthusiasm of the electorate. The main issue with Guillier right now is that for most of the people (to the left of center) he is the obvious reason above Piñera, but don't think is worthy to go and support for Guillier in order to avoid Piñera.
The missing point is the DC. Goic's candidate is almost dead, but I think there's gonna be a lot of noise about the party's support in the second round (or maybe the first), and probable they are going to officially endorse Guillier but many "high profiles" comrades (in Chile the DC militants call themselves comrades) would support publicly Piñera (e.g. Mariana Aylwin, Clemente Perez, etc.). Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: mgop on June 30, 2017, 03:42:55 PM i noticed interesting pattern in chile. why incumbent presidents didn't seek re-election in 2009 (bachelet) and 2013 (pinera)?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on June 30, 2017, 07:53:53 PM That's because the constitutions doesn't allow to seek inmediate re-election, otherwise both Bachelet and Piñera would had happily run for a second term.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: mgop on July 01, 2017, 05:52:47 AM oh in one way that's good because they can't stay in power for long, but in other way they will stay in politics even longer just with breaks.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 01, 2017, 07:23:27 PM Exactly, that is the trade-off (and also one problem is that there's too much pressure for a president to do as many things and reforms as possible without a break).
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 01, 2017, 07:53:40 PM Well, tomorrow is primary day. It's a national holiday so there's no shopping malls, cinemas and many other stores open and alcohol selling is forbidden. As mentioned before, one problem is that at 2 pm Chile plays against Germany at the Confederations Cup.
Chile Vamos Primaries Although Sebastian Piñera said a week ago that they expect 1 million people to vote that is probably an unreachable goal. 808,002 voted in the right primary in 2013 and we don't have a reason to expect a higher participation this year. The candidates had a polemic debate on monday when we saw personal attacks between them (particularly between Ossandon and the rest). The relationship between Ossandon and the rest of Chile Vamos is at its low and if he win I think they would even think to run another candidate as independent. Is going to be interesting to see the source of support of the candidates. Ossandon is going to be very strong in Puente Alto and some zones where the "popular right" is strong, and Piñera Kast with the traditional right (upper middle class and the wealthy but Kast is going to be stronger with the under-35) () Felipe Kast, Sebastián Piñera, Manuel Jose Ossandon Frente Amplio In the Frente Amplio they expect 300,000 people to vote, and I think the Nueva Mayoria are going to be alert on the results. If the turnout is low they are going to attack FA with all they got. During the last weeks we saw a strengthening of Mayol's candidacy and the weakening of Beatriz Sanchez. She is still the favorite but honestly the way she acted the last weeks (and also Revolución Democratica and the Autonomous Left) has left many people dissatisfied with her candidacy. She is trying to appeal to a broader electorate but in the process the candidacy has lost total coherence. Mayol, on the other hand, is doing a campaign that many on the left had hoped. I don't even like him a lot but he has offered a coherent candidacy that has begun to inspire a sector that had become disenchanted. However, I expect a strong Sanchez victory, she has a much stronger political machine behind her back and she probably has a broader appeal. () Beatriz Sanchez and Alfredo Mayol. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 01, 2017, 08:13:56 PM Pseudo-poll
I'm going to do a summary of the support of my friends and relative. -My dad is not going to vote, he was undecided between Sanchez and Guillier but in the last week he got disappointed and liked Guillier's program so he is on the Guillier train now. -My mom, sister and I are going to vote for Mayol. My mom always liked Mayol and she wasn't enthusiastic on Sanchez's candidacy. -I have 3 other brothers, I really don't know about them, but I don't think they are going to vote. -My girlfriend is going to vote for Ossandon. -My best friend and her girlfriend are going to vote for Ossandon too. -Most of my friends from work and friends from college (my career) and high school are going to vote for Kast, although from what I heard at my job, some are scared by Ossandon's chances and are planning to vote for Piñera. -One friend from my school is going to vote for Mayol. -Most of my friends from college (not my career) are going to vote for Sanchez, but most of them are part of Revolución Democratica (former members of NAU, the pre-RD) and even one is pre-candidate for deputy for my district. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 12:16:17 AM This is the first election we have in which chileans abroad can vote.
We have results from Australia! Chile Vamos Sebastián Piñera - 6 votes (12%) Felipe Kast - 9 (18%) Manuel Jose Ossandon- 35 (70%) Frente Amplio Beatriz Sanchez - 16 (34.8%) Alberto Mayol - 30 (65.2%) Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 12:19:32 AM Important, the results mentioned above are the results from Canberra. The consulates of Sydney and Melbourne have not yet published results (these are not officials, the official results will be published tomorrow along with the internal ones, but from what I read the consulates in the other side of the world are counting).
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: EnglishPete on July 02, 2017, 05:35:59 AM Important, the results mentioned above are the results from Canberra. The consulates of Sydney and Melbourne have not yet published results (these are not officials, the official results will be published tomorrow along with the internal ones, but from what I read the consulates in the other side of the world are counting). Reports from twitter Cristobal Yuraszeck @C_Yuraszeck_ 8m8 minutes ago Resultados Primarias Australia (Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra) Piñera 93 44% Kast 69 32,7% Ossandon 49 23,2% Chile Vamos 211 votos Cristobal Yuraszeck @C_Yuraszeck_ 4m4 minutes ago Resultados Primarias Australia (Sydney, Melbourne, Canberra) Sanchez 79 65,8% Mayol 41 34,2 % Total Frente Amplio 120 votos. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: mgop on July 02, 2017, 06:17:23 AM Exactly, that is the trade-off (and also one problem is that there's too much pressure for a president to do as many things and reforms as possible without a break). yeah, in most of europe is even worse, we have president term of 5 years (max 2 terms, can be in a row), and prime minister who has the real power and often isn't elect with majority can rule forever, there is no limit as to office terms of the prime minister. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: mgop on July 02, 2017, 06:18:44 AM really isn't smart to have primaries during confederations cup final when chile - germany playing. is that reason why new majority cancelled their primary?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 11:49:37 AM really isn't smart to have primaries during confederations cup final when chile - germany playing. is that reason why new majority cancelled their primary? No, they don't have primaries because the DC decided to go alone to the election (with Goic) and Ricardo Lagos withdraw from the primaries after the PS endorsed Guillier. Actually, not going to the primaries is something unwanted. It wasn't smart, but as New Majority aren't going to the primaries, they didn't have the pressure to change the date, actually, is better to them. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 11:54:55 AM In my commune polls have been merged and as one of the communes with higher participation and where Chile Vamos is stronger, there's long lines in the polls stations.
A picture of the place I vote (from twitter, I will go later) () Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 12:13:27 PM Results from Barcelona:
Third Poll () Second Poll () Good performance from Sanchez Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 12:20:19 PM Results from Stockholm
() Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 12:23:51 PM Full results from Sweden
() Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 12:34:56 PM Picture of National Stadium, located in Ñuñoa
() Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: mgop on July 02, 2017, 12:36:27 PM croatian lobby seems strong in christian democratic party. they had radomiro tomić and now carolina goić is leader.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 12:44:28 PM Also in the Frente Amplio, two of the three deputies from FA are from Croatian descent (Vlado Mirosevic and Gabriel Boric). There's a sizable Croatian presence in the far north and the far south of Chile. I read somewhere that half of the people in Punta Arenas (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Punta_Arenas) have a Croatian surname (Goic and Boric are from that area, meanwhile Tomic and Mirosevic are from the far north).
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: mgop on July 02, 2017, 12:54:35 PM frente amplio and cdp are left wing parties. it's nice to see that croatian abroad are not all from ustashe descent, because their diaspora is mostly those who escape after wwii after supporting nazi occupators. anyway good luck against germany today :D
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 12:54:53 PM Although in Chile ethnic politics is almost nonexistent I think. Politics here is strong class-based, and you can see politicians from different origins in all parties.
An example are Chileans from palestinian descent, there are half a million and you have high-profile politicians from UDI to the Communist party. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 12:59:04 PM frente amplio and cdp are left wing parties. it's nice to see that croatian abroad are not all from ustashe descent, because their diaspora is mostly those who escape after wwii after supporting nazi occupators. anyway good luck against germany today :D Thank you ahah Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: parochial boy on July 02, 2017, 01:12:45 PM Judging by the fact that all of the Chileans abroad primaries seem to have a disproportionately high number Frente Amplio compared Chile Vamos votes, is it fair to say that expatriate Chileans tend to lean left?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 01:22:49 PM Judging by the fact that all of the Chileans abroad primaries seem to have a disproportionately high number Frente Amplio compared Chile Vamos votes, is it fair to say that expatriate Chileans tend to lean left? Also there are many chileans studying abroad, and I would think that the ones from the right have a tendency to go to USA and from the left to go to Europe. There are many exemptions but I think theres a pattern. The first point is the reason the right was opposed to chileans voting abroad. Edit: A high support for Ossandon in Sweden and Barcelona suggest that some people on the left are voting Ossandon (in order to damage Piñera) Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 01:27:46 PM Good article from wikipedia about chilean swedes
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chilean_Swedes Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: Lumine on July 02, 2017, 02:55:43 PM Great coverage, seb_pard!
Went to vote a couple of hours ago for Felipe Kast, I hope he performs well in the primary. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 04:23:31 PM Great coverage, seb_pard! Went to vote a couple of hours ago for Felipe Kast, I hope he performs well in the primary. Thanks Lumine! Polls closed in Punta Arenas. First results: () Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Day (July 2nd) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 04:27:27 PM In the rest of the country, polls closed in 35 minutes. Although official results are gonna be announced in a few hours, we could know well the results by the live counting.
If you want to watch the election: http://www.tvn.cl/envivo/ Official results: http://www.servelelecciones.cl Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Day (July 2nd) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 04:30:08 PM Results from France (238 votes):
Chile Vamos Piñera 22 Kast 20 Ossandon 25 Frente Amplio Sanchez 101 Mayol 63 Blank and null: 7 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Day (July 2nd) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 05:00:16 PM Preliminary results from Punta Arenas (3 polling stations I think)
Chile Vamos Piñera 94 Ossandon 34 Kast 29 Frente Amplio Sanchez 45 Mayol 23 Poor results from Sanchez, Punta Arenas is home of Boric (which he also represents) and should be higher her vote IMO. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Day (July 2nd) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 05:02:34 PM From what I heard on TV, participation was high in Puente Alto. Ossandon was mayor there (and also is the second largest municipality by population in the country).
It should be interesting. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Day (July 2nd) Post by: Lumine on July 02, 2017, 05:07:26 PM Aye, it's going to be an exciting night!
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Day (July 2nd) Post by: Lumine on July 02, 2017, 05:20:26 PM Preliminar (and limited) results show Piñera at around 60%, Ossandon and Kast close to each other on roughly 20%. Sanchez would be close to 65-70%, Mayol around 30-35%.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Day (July 2nd) Post by: Lumine on July 02, 2017, 06:06:18 PM With 22.97%:
Chile Vamos: Piñera 58.5% Ossandon 28.0% Kast 13.5% Frente Amplio: Sanchez 69.4% Mayol 30.6% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Day (July 2nd) Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 06:58:56 PM With 81.96%:
Chile Vamos (1,041,721 votes) Piñera 56.81% Kast 14.24% Ossandon 28.94% Frente Amplio (257,611 votes) Beatriz Sanchez 68.23% Alberto Mayol 31.77% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: Lumine on July 02, 2017, 07:07:24 PM So by tomorrow, the field would be looking like this:
Cleared to enter the first round: Former President Sebastian Piñera (Chile Vamos) Senator Alejandro Guiller (Nueva Mayoria) Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (Frente Amplio) Senator Carolina Goic (Democracia Cristiana) Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Independent) Not yet cleared to enter: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) Roxana Miranda (ANDHA) Eduardo Artes (Union Patriotica) Nicolas Shea (Todos) Carola Canelo (Independent) Franco Parisi (Independent) Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (Independent) Marcel Claude (Independent) Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 07:08:20 PM Mayol announced that he is now full behind Beatriz Sanchez. Ossandon, on the contrary, hasn't endorsed Piñera, he said that although he is from the right, he doesn't own his support and he plans to meet Piñera this week.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 07:13:04 PM Actually a good turnout from Chile Vamos, much better than 2013 (I think Piñera has the same effect on them that Bachelet has on NM).
About Frente Amplio, is their first primary (and first election) so there's no comparison, but I think that NM is ready to attack them, comparing the vote to 2013, but the situation is very different. But a united Frente Amplio is good I think. I'm only afraid of a tough campaign between DC, NM and FA that could damage the parliamentarian results. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: Lumine on July 02, 2017, 07:15:59 PM Being fair, the Frente Amplio had a very good campaign. Still those results must be disappointing even if its their first primary, recieving as many combined votes as Ossandon (even with the campaign of some in the left to vote for him to get Piñera out) is not a sign of confidence if Sanchez ever intends to reach the second round.
I wanted Kast to do better, but I can be pleased with the good turnout for Chile Vamos (around 800,000 in 2013, it will surpass 1,200,000 this time around). Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: seb_pard on July 02, 2017, 07:20:53 PM I believe Kast's share is going up, because the vote left is basically located in the 11th district, in which he is currently at 20%. Do you think there's some "voto util" that hurt him?
I honestly think that Beatriz Sanchez is a bad candidate and campaigner. It's impressive that someone like Mayol (with negative charisma) took from her more than 30% (however I voted for him). Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: Barnes on July 02, 2017, 07:21:23 PM Talk about a bad penny in the case of Chile Vamos. ;)
I've throughly enjoyed the commentary here and will be actively watching this election from now on. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: Lumine on July 02, 2017, 07:24:52 PM I believe Kast's share is going up, because the vote left is basically located in the 11th district, which he is currently at 20%. Do you think there's some "voto util" that hurt him? I honestly think that Beatriz Sanchez is a bad candidate and campaigner. It's impressive that someone like Mayol (with negative charisma) took from her more than 30% (however I voted for him). I would certainly say it hurt him to some extent, particularly as fears ramped up that Ossandon might deliver a surprise win. Still, I think his campaign went as well as it can be reasonably expected, and he managed to raise up a few relevant issues. I wish his performance had been stronger so he'd be better positioned for a later election, but it could have been worse. Aye, Sanchez seems a bit like a paper tiger now. Too many mistakes in the campaign trail, too confused a message, too bland an image. I'm rather surprised about her. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: kelestian on July 03, 2017, 04:23:49 AM Stupid question: why 2013 elections was Bachelet's landslide, compared to very close results of 2006 and 2010 presidential elections?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: Lumine on July 03, 2017, 10:53:48 AM New poll, taken before the primaries:
Opinion Poll: Plaza Publica Cadem, July 3rdth: Bachelet Approval: 26%/61% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 22% (-2) Sanchez 11% (+2) Guillier 9% (-3) Ossandon 7% (+1) F. Kast 5% (+2) Mayol 3% Goic 1% (-1) J. A. Kast 1% Parisi 1% Ominami 1% Others 4% Undecided 35% (+1) Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 56%, Guiller 14%, Sanchez 5%, Ossandon 4%, F. Kast 1%, Other/None 20% If you consider coalitions: Chile Vamos: 35% Frente Amplio: 14% Nueva Mayoria: 10% Others: 6% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: Lumine on July 03, 2017, 11:28:39 AM Stupid question: why 2013 elections was Bachelet's landslide, compared to very close results of 2006 and 2010 presidential elections? Well, a lot of it has to do with government erosion. Bachelet came out of nowhere in 2003-2004 as an efficient government minister and gained a lot of instant popularity (she was seen as caring and close to the public). The right-wing entered 2005-2006 divided and with two candidates (Piñera and Lavin) and while Piñera put up a good fight (partly because after 16 years in government the Concertacion was looking tired) he couldn't match Bachelet's appeal. 2009-2010 saw Bachelet still popular in person, but her government and the Concertacion being unpopular. A perfect storm of sorts took place, the left divided between three candidates as Piñera united the right, moved to the center and rode a wave of a desire for change to narrowly defeat former President Frei. But by 2013 Piñera himself and his government had turned unpopular, and there was a general sense of defeat inside the right. When Bachelet returned from New York she had her popularity intact and rode a wave of populism by promising to lead far-reaching reforms from Chile, and she benefited as well from the fact that the right-wing changed candidates several times in a comedy of errors. By the end, she captured a landslide due the disunion in the right, the unpopularity of Piñera, her own strong appeal and popularity and her rather generous promises. Come 2017 the scenario has shifted again. Bachelet is holed up in La Moneda as a hugely unpopular president, and Piñera, while still not popular, has a clear shot at a turn if things go right for him. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: Lumine on July 03, 2017, 11:44:04 AM More polls! This time the more reliable Adimark:
Opinion Poll: Adimark, July 3rd: Bachelet Approval: 30%/63% Presidential: Voting Intention: Piñera 31% Guillier 15% Sanchez 13% Ossandon 4% F. Kast 3% Mayol 3% Goic 2% J. A. Kast 1% Parisi 1% Ominami 1% Others 3% Undecided 23% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 59%, Guiller 17%, Sanchez 4%, Ossandon 2%, Goic 1%, Other/None 17% If you consider coalitions: Chile Vamos: 39% Nueva Mayoria: 17% Frente Amplio: 16% Others: 5% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: Antonio the Sixth on July 03, 2017, 03:36:45 PM Well, there we go. #ReadyForGuiller I guess.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Primary Season (Chile Vamos/Frente Amplio) Post by: seb_pard on July 03, 2017, 09:20:17 PM Pseudo-poll I'm going to do a summary of the support of my friends and relative. -My dad is not going to vote, he was undecided between Sanchez and Guillier but in the last week he got disappointed and liked Guillier's program so he is on the Guillier train now. -My mom, sister and I are going to vote for Mayol. My mom always liked Mayol and she wasn't enthusiastic on Sanchez's candidacy. -I have 3 other brothers, I really don't know about them, but I don't think they are going to vote. -My girlfriend is going to vote for Ossandon. -My best friend and her girlfriend are going to vote for Ossandon too. -Most of my friends from work and friends from college (my career) and high school are going to vote for Kast, although from what I heard at my job, some are scared by Ossandon's chances and are planning to vote for Piñera. -One friend from my school is going to vote for Mayol. -Most of my friends from college (not my career) are going to vote for Sanchez, but most of them are part of Revolución Democratica (former members of NAU, the pre-RD) and even one is pre-candidate for deputy for my district. -My dad at the end voted for Mayol, he has very disgusted with Sanchez's comments about Allende (me too) and he wanted to vote haha. He is now full on Guillier. -One brother voted for Sanchez, :) the other didn't go :(. -Mi girlfriend and my best friend didn't vote. They support Guillier anyway. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: seb_pard on July 03, 2017, 09:28:30 PM I think Frente Amplio has a very big problem that could not only damage them but the chilean left: the Communist party is not part of it. The PC here is not a fringe party, it's almost a subculture that is very respected across a sizable part of the chilean left (but not by the right, they don't like at all them). They lead union, they are the largest party, they have many students federations, and they are very tactic about the political game. They don't like to act extreme, and although very rigid in nature, they are very willing to compromise.
For the Frente Amplio to go without the Communist party is to go without a vital part, it seems incomplete, it seems akward, it doesn't feel natural. But also is a problem that the Communist party is at the Nueva Mayoria. Almost nobody likes NM (they don't do too much to avoid this) and some parts of it are really disgusting (PPD I see you). I don't think that so many people here feel this is an issue, but I really think so. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera, Sanchez win primaries Post by: seb_pard on July 03, 2017, 09:42:44 PM Funny story, my sister was in the line waiting to cast the vote (in the Verbo Divino School) and she heard an old lady saying to another: "voy a poner que se vayan a la chucha todos los weones" haha, this doesn't have a direct translation and only a Chilean could understand :)
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The road to the first round Post by: Lumine on July 08, 2017, 04:31:02 PM With a favorable vote of 95% of party councilors the centrist liberal party Amplitud (created after a splinter in RN and the right in 2014) has endorsed Sebastian Piñera as their nominee, thanks in great part due to lobbying by Amplitud Senator Lily Perez, a known ally of the former President.
While Amplitud is still set to run on a parliamentary list with Ciudadanos and not with Chile Vamos, it should aid Piñera on a projected rush towards the political center. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The road to the first round Post by: Lumine on July 10, 2017, 02:19:41 PM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, July 10th: Bachelet Approval: 25%/64% Presidential: Voting Intention (OPEN) Piñera 30% (+8) Sanchez 15% (+4) Guillier 9% Ossandon 2% (-5) Goic 1% J. A. Kast 1% Parisi 1% F. Kast 1% (-4) Others 5% Undecided 35% (+1) Voting Intention (likely voters, closed question) Piñera 30% Sanchez 21% Guillier 13% Parisi 4% Goic 3% J. A. Kast 3% Ominami 2% Undecided 24% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 66%, Guiller 11%, Sanchez 6%, Ossandon 1%, Other/None 16% Who do you prefer to govern: Chile Vamos 33%, Frente Amplio 18%, Nueva Mayoria 13%, Democracia Cristiana 8%, None/Other 28%, If you consider coalitions: Chile Vamos: 34% Frente Amplio: 15% Nueva Mayoria: 10% Others: 6% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The road to the first round Post by: seb_pard on July 11, 2017, 11:41:56 AM A few pages ago I talked about Chile Vamos' parties, now I resume the summary of chilean parties with the Christian Democrats:
Partido Democrata Cristiano () One of the most important parties since the second half of century, although today is in a bad shape. The party is the successor of the Falange Nacional (National Falange), which was founded in 1935 by young militants of the Conservative Party unhappy with the party leadership. They wanted a more serious compromise with the catholic social teaching that they felt they CP didn’t have. They felt that the battle against communism would be lost without a strong compromise for social justice, and they promoted cooperatives and Agrarian reforms. A strong influence was the french Jacques Maritain. In 1957 they merged with other minor parties and founded the Christian Democratic Party. In the presidential election of 1958, they were represented by their leader Eduardo Frei Montalva, and although lost, he obtained 20.75% of the vote, much better than expected. Eduardo Frei ran again in 1964 and obtained 56.09% of the vote, with a strong support from a right afraid of an Allende’s victory. Julio Duran, the candidate of the right, received only 4.98% of the vote. () Eduardo Frei Montalva Frei’s presidency was characterized by the number of reforms made, they accelerated the Agrarian reform started by Alessandri, promoted the civic participation and started the Chilenization of copper. For the 1970 election, the candidate of the party was Radomiro Tomic, a representative of the progressive wing. Tomic received 28.08% and the party supported Allende (in the old Chilean electoral system if a candidate obtained less than 50%, the congress would vote). It should be added that some parts of the party’s youth left the party and founded the MAPU (Popular Unitary Action Movement) and the Christian Left (both supported Allende). The 70’s was a period of strong polarization in Chile, and DC wasn’t an exception. Most of the leadership was strongly opposed to Allende, but some (leaded by Tomic) were more inclined to an understanding to the government. For the 1973 parliamentary election, the DC ran in an unitary list with the rest of the opposition with the objective of winning enough seats to impeach Allende. And although the won, the lost seats against the Unidad Popular (Allende’s coalition) and couldn’t impeach Allende, but they opposition started a process of boicot against the government and promoted a coup which materialized in September 11th. Most of the party’s leadership supported the coup, with a notable exception which was reflected in a letter written by 13 party leaders (the “grupo de los 13”) in which they condemned the coup. The leaders of the party were actually confident that the military would give them the power after a few days or months, something that didn’t happen. Shortly after months, the party was fully opposed against Pinochet and many members were imprisoned, exiled or forcedly moved to small towns. In the 80’s the party founded with most of the opposition the Concertación. With the return of democracy, the party leaded the transition, mostly because the military wouldn’t have allowed other parties such the socialists. During the 90’s the party maintained the leadership of the Concertación (thanks in part to having the president) but after Andres Zaldivar lost the primary against Ricardo Lagos (from the PPD) the country has lost substantial support. I think the decline of the party started in the 70’s but during Pinochet’s dictatorship this process stalled and reversed in the 90’s an accelerated after that. This is due to many reasons: the party lacks of a concrete ideology, they are pretty big tent, they like to be moderate hero (or amarillos as we called here in Chile) the leadership is too focus in having power than changing the country (contrary to the party’s perception in the 60’s) and all the politics they do is to maintain power. They are seen now as a party obsessed to be in power and they themselves view as a representative of a third of the electorate, a third that no longer exist. The base supposed they represent no longer exist, and when you see the people who is supposed to be their base no longer like them. It’s a process similar to what happened to the Radical Party in before the coup. Currently the party has 8 senators and 22 deputies and they are stronger in the countryside. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The road to the first round Post by: Lumine on July 17, 2017, 05:06:44 PM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, July 17th: Bachelet Approval: 25%/64% Presidential: Voting Intention (All voters): Piñera 30% Sanchez 19% Guillier 15% J. A. Kast 4% Goic 2% Ominami 2% Parisi 2% Undecided 26 Voting Intention (likely voters): Piñera 40% Sanchez 23% Guillier 20% J. A. Kast 3% Parisi 3% Goic 2% Ominami 2% Undecided 6% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 63%, Guiller 13%, Sanchez 7%, Goic 1%, Ominami, 1%, Kast 1%, Other/None 14% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The road to the first round Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on July 19, 2017, 12:20:04 PM Is Sánchez having a real rise in support or is this just her consolidating support/having a bump from winning the FA primary?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The road to the first round Post by: Lumine on July 24, 2017, 11:12:17 AM Is Sánchez having a real rise in support or is this just her consolidating support/having a bump from winning the FA primary? I would have to say the second is looking more likely now. As it stands she's losing ground in the polls again (and has been a bit silent on the past few days) while Guillier recovers some points. It seems the exposure from the primary helped a lot, but it doesn't seem this is a definitive rise in support yet. Opinion Poll: Plaza Publica Cadem, July 24th: Bachelet Approval: 26%/61% Presidential: Voting Intention (All voters): Piñera 31% Sanchez 16% Guillier 16% J. A. Kast 4% Ominami 3% Goic 2% Parisi 2% Undecided 25% Voting Intention (likely voters): Piñera 40% Sanchez 21% Guillier 21% J. A. Kast 4% Parisi 2% Goic 2% Ominami 2% Undecided 8% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 65%, Guiller 14%, Sanchez 9%, Goic 1%, Parisi 1%, Other/None 10% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The road to the first round Post by: seb_pard on July 31, 2017, 07:27:04 PM DC is in middle of a political crisis. Last saturday was the party's Junta Nacional (National Conference?) where they voted for the political candidates. The thing is that they had two choices: To approve the whole parliamentary list or vote by district. Goic supported the latter because Ricardo Rincon (current deputy, now candidate for Senate) was in the preliminary list. It was discovered that Rincon was found guilty of domestic abuse in 2002 (his partner had physical injuries). Currently gender-based violence is one of the most important issues discused in the country and our society is increasingly (fortunately) less tolerant to these cases, and there was a strong campaign (leaded by Goic) to avoid a Rincon candidacy. Well, the preliminary list was approved.
Goic said that now she is evaluating her candidacy and she will announce her decision in the following days. The image of the party is in the floor, it is really sad to see (although they deserve it). Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - The road to the first round Post by: seb_pard on August 03, 2017, 10:13:30 PM Well, Goic announced today that she is going to resume the campaign and she will use her attribution as party leader (given by the chilean electoral service) to prevent a Rincon candidacy.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic stays to fight, Parisi drops out Post by: Lumine on August 04, 2017, 09:19:14 PM Franco Parisi drops out (to run for Senate instead), Guillier finally presents about 60,000 signatures to confirm his candidacy. Field currently as follows:
Cleared to enter the first round: Former President Sebastian Piñera (Chile Vamos) Senator Alejandro Guiller (Nueva Mayoria) Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (Frente Amplio) Senator Carolina Goic (Democracia Cristiana) Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Independent) Eduardo Artes (Union Patriotica) Not yet cleared to enter: Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) Roxana Miranda (ANDHA) Nicolas Shea (Todos) Abraham Larrondo (Independent) Carola Canelo (Independent) Tomás Jocelyn-Holt (Independent) Marcel Claude (Independent) (Note: All of those who haven't reached the first round yet are doubtful to do so, probably a couple or three at best will manage to gather the signatures) Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic stays to fight, Parisi drops out Post by: seb_pard on August 07, 2017, 06:58:31 AM It amazes me that someone like Eduardo Artes achieved the necessary signatures to become a presidential candidate. That shows the fragmentation in the chilean left, it reminds me of France.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Goic stays to fight, Parisi drops out Post by: Lumine on August 11, 2017, 11:15:48 AM Opinion Poll:
Plaza Publica Cadem, August 7th: Bachelet Approval: 26%/64% Presidential: Voting Intention (All voters): Piñera 39% Sanchez 18% Guillier 15% Goic 5% J. A. Kast 3% Parisi 3% Ominami 2% Undecided 24% Voting Intention (likely voters): Piñera 40% Sanchez 20% Guillier 20% Goic 6% J. A. Kast 3% Ominami 2% Parisi 1% Undecided 8% Who do you think the next President will be: Piñera 67%, Guiller 11%, Sanchez 7%, Goic 1%, Parisi 1%, J. A. Kast 1%, Other/None 12% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Eight candidates to the first round Post by: Lumine on August 19, 2017, 11:39:39 PM Several of the less hopeful candidates drop out as there's only two days left to present the signatures (Jocelyn-Holt and Shea included), and with eight candidates currently cleared for the first round it seems unlikely the field will grow larger than that:
Cleared to enter the first round: Former President Sebastian Piñera (Chile Vamos) Senator Alejandro Guiller (Nueva Mayoria) Journalist Beatriz Sanchez (Frente Amplio) Senator Carolina Goic (Democracia Cristiana) Former Deputy Marco Enriquez-Ominami (PRO) Deputy Jose Antonio Kast (Independent) Eduardo Artes (Union Patriotica) Senator Alejandro Navarro (Pais) Not yet cleared to enter: Roxana Miranda (ANDHA) Carola Canelo (Independent) Marcel Claude (Independent) So you'd have Kast (conservative right), Piñera (center-right), Goic (center to center-left), Guillier (social-democratic left), Ominami (progressive left), Navarro ("boliviarian" style left), Sanchez (student-aligned left) and Artes (hardcore left). Usually it doesn't really matter to see many left-wing candidates, but unlike 2013 the left is really fragmented this time around. While Piñera does have to worry about Kast taking quite a few of his voters on the first round, he is not going to be outflanked from the center (certainly not with Goic polling badly). He seems to consolidate as a favorite to win, much more than what it looked like by the start of the year. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Eight candidates to the first round Post by: seb_pard on August 21, 2017, 07:26:50 PM Some updates from the south:
-Abortion: Finally Abortion is legal again in Chile. El Constitutional Court denied the protests from the opposition so now we no longer have one of the most restrictive abortion laws in the world. Abortion is now legal in the following cases: 1. When the woman's life is in danger. 2. When the fetus is not viable. 3. In the case of rape. These are babies steps but overall is very good news if you see the law we had. Abortion was legal since 1931 for medical reasons but Pinochet banned in 1989. -Migration: The government sent today a new abortion law proposal to be discussed and voted in congress. A migration reform is needed because the current law (created by Pinochet in 1974) has become a serious problem with the current immigration rate. Some migration NGOs and communities has criticized the the government's hermetic attitude with respect to this law (a problem I think Bachelet has). Immigration to Chile has increased in the last years, particularly from Haiti, Venezuela, Colombia and Dominican Republic. This is a new thing in Chile (in the last decade migration was mainly from Peru and Bolivia, two neighbors) but I think the country has reacted very well, but the current law is unsustainable with the current rate of migration (restrictive and bureaucratic). -Frente Amplio: The Frente Amplio embarrassed themselves last week. Alberto Mayol (former presidential candidate) said through to the press a few weeks ago that he wanted to run as a deputy candidate in the 10th District (Giorgio Jackson's district and the strongest Frente Amplio district). He wanted to run in Democratic Revolution ticket but they offered the Equality Party district. And then all went dark. According to Natalia Castillo (other RD candidate in 10th district) Mayol asked to withdraw her candidacy for him. Obviously she rejected that (although Mayol denied doing this). Then all went dark. In the FA was uncomfortable with the way Mayol acted (they had all ready) but he pushed through the press (he is an expert in communications) and this was seen as the FA was doing everything to protect Jackson and screw Mayol. Last week FA decided to forbid Mayol to run as FA candidate because he sent some whatsapp audios to Jackson and Castillo. The FA board accused him of gender violence (a big mistake, because he was nasty, but against the two). Then came all the press and political parties attacking the FA for doing this. Finally they offer again the Equality Party spot and he accepted. All this damaged the FA a lot. Honestly I think Mayol was nasty, he showed his real clothes but the coalition show how poorly prepared they are. They are used to college politics and doesn't have any frustration tolerance. The same old left... Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Eight candidates to the first round Post by: Lumine on August 31, 2017, 11:35:48 AM The economic team of the government resigned today, including both the Finance and the Economy ministers. It's going from bad to worse for Bachelet...
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Eight candidates to the first round Post by: seb_pard on September 02, 2017, 01:10:18 PM I honestly think this was a good thing for Bachelet. Valdes was a liability for the government, no one was happy with him (I can't stand him) and he was ideologically against with the policies of the government.
The reason of the resignation was due to the rejection of a mining project called Dominga (they were in favor, Bachelet and the rest were against). I think the right think was to reject the project, All the news talked about to be in favor of economic growth, give certainty to the private sector but no one talk about if this project complied with the legislation, and besides that, there is a corruption scandal associated with the permissions granted with this project. I am in favor of economic growth (it's important), but I am against in eliminating laws and lowering taxes to increase short term growth thus sacrificing long term growth. Besides all mentioned, Nicolas Eyzaguirre (former Treasury minister of Lagos and one of my favorite chilean politicians) return to the economic team :D. In the short term this is bad for Bachelet, in the long term is very good. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Eight candidates to the first round Post by: seb_pard on September 02, 2017, 01:13:15 PM ()
A picture of Nicolas Eyzaguirre from an interview for the left-wing magazine The Clinic. I love this picture. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Eight candidates to the first round Post by: seb_pard on September 02, 2017, 06:30:56 PM A gift to forum members, this is a speech by Pedro Aguirre Cerda, chilean president between 1938 and 1941 (he died in office) who is considered by many as one of the greatest presidents of our history. It's only two minutes and although is in spanish, has subtitles (but in spanish haha). This is a great piece of chilean history. I'm gonna try to translate the speech.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oRfUvTP-frY His article on wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pedro_Aguirre_Cerda Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Eight candidates to the first round Post by: seb_pard on September 02, 2017, 07:11:09 PM My translation of the speech:
To governs is to educate, and with this strong concept I will take advantage of all the strength the state can have to awake the constructive spirit of organization and perseverance that the national collective so badly needs, and I will rectify the neglected state of the public education that has left us a high percentage of illiterates in an age that the adult intervenes in unions, associations and other multiple activities that require culture and patriotic understanding. The producer must be protected, but as such it is not understandable the one that puts the capital on interest to remain personally inactive, or the one who speculates with ignorance and misery. It is a duty to work based on the sacred contribution that every individual aware of his/her duties must give to the community in a direct and personal way. And we will seek to give exclusive benefits to all elements of the society that give their tribute to their homeland, either a humble worker or the highest researcher or scientist. Working is indispensable to the physical, moral and intellectual health of the citizen and we will ask you to establish the right to work as a corollary of the duty to work. In this I deliberately include women, who will not have maternal obligations to fulfill. Women must be incorporated actively into the national life, and enjoy all the civil and political rights the men have. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Eight candidates to the first round Post by: seb_pard on September 10, 2017, 04:27:42 PM Vote intention by socio-economic class
() Blue: Upper class Light green: Middle class Dark green: Lower class Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Eight candidates to the first round Post by: Lumine on September 10, 2017, 07:39:28 PM New polls!
Cadem: Piñera 42% Guillier 18% Sanchez 17% J. A. Kast 4% Goic 4% Ominami 1% Navarro 1% Artes 1% Undecided 12% CEP: Piñera 39.8% Guillier 18.1% Sanchez 17.9% Goic 5.4% J. A. Kast 3.4% Ominami 1.8% Navarro 0% Artes 0% Undecided 10.8% Adimark: Piñera 34% Guillier 16% Sanchez 15% Goic 5% J. A. Kast 2% Ominami 1% Navarro 0% Artes 0% Undecided 27% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Piñera in the lead, two months to go Post by: Lumine on October 16, 2017, 11:53:14 AM About another month of campaign has passed, and believe it or not, it has been incredibly boring. Piñera retains his lead as Guillier re-emerges as his main contender, Sanchez and the FA steadily losing support as they continue to run a rather disappointing campaign.
With about a month left to go, here is the latest poll, released today: Cadem: Likely Voters Piñera 43% Guillier 20% Sanchez 13% J. A. Kast 5% Goic 4% Ominami 4% Navarro 0% Artes 0% Undecided 11% Cadem: All Voters Piñera 34% Guillier 15% Sanchez 12% J. A. Kast 4% Goic 4% Ominami 4% Navarro 0% Artes 0% Undecided 27% Cadem: Runoff Scencarios: Piñera 51% Guillier 36% Undecided 13% Piñera 53% Sanchez 33% Undecided 14% Piñera 51% Goic 27% Undecided 22% Piñera 54% Ominami 22% Undecided 24% Piñera 50% J. A. Kast 14% Undecided 26% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - One month to go Post by: Lumine on October 22, 2017, 12:18:26 PM Another weekly poll:
Cadem: Likely Voters Piñera 42% Guillier 21% Sanchez 13% J. A. Kast 5% Goic 5% Ominami 3% Navarro 1% Artes 0% Undecided 10% Cadem: Runoff: Piñera 47% Guillier 42% Undecided 11% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: Lumine on November 12, 2017, 11:55:59 AM I haven't updated this closely because, well, it's been a rather dull and boring campaign. Piñera retains his strong lead in the polls no whatever what attacks are launched against him, and the center-left to left candidates are engaged in all-out war to reach the second round. Marco Enriquez-Ominami has been particularly vocal in taking down Guillier, so much that there are clues that he might do much better than expected in the first round.
With a week to go (and proyections of a deeply divided Congress), this was the final Cadem poll before the two-week polling blackout: Cadem: Likely Voters Piñera 45% Guillier 23% Sanchez 14% J. A. Kast 6% Goic 6% Ominami 5% Navarro 0,5% Artes 0,5% Cadem: Run-Off Piñera v. Guillier: Piñera 50% Guillier 38% Piñera v. Sanchez: Piñera 51% Sanchez 36% Piñera v. Kast: Piñera 49% J. A. Kast 18% Piñera v. Goic: Piñera 50% Goic 31% Piñera v. Ominami: Piñera 51% Ominami 29% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: Lumine on November 15, 2017, 06:08:15 PM Widespread shock today as Senator Fulvio Rossi (expelled from the Socialists some time ago and now seeking reelection as an independent) was attacked today morning, being stabbed in the abdomen. He is in a grave condition but in no vital risk, and there's a significant degree of speculation as to why he was attacked (some of his supporters point to his harsh stance on illegal immigration, some, like a Communist Deputy, imply it was a self-inflicted or planned attack).
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: Former President tack50 on November 15, 2017, 07:26:30 PM Seems like Piñera will win in a landslide. Any chance he wins in the first round by getting more than 50%?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: Lumine on November 15, 2017, 09:38:53 PM Seems like Piñera will win in a landslide. Any chance he wins in the first round by getting more than 50%? It's possible, but unlikely, Kast should draw several right-wing voters away from Piñera and the whole matter depends strongly on turnout. If turnout is unusually low then Piñera has a chance to win on the first round (as polls show his supporters are far more committed to show up), and if turnout was to be higher than 50% or so then I'd say his chances of outright victory are very low. As to a second round, it all depends on the distance with his main challenger (probably Guillier). If the difference is greater than 15% experts believe Piñera will win without problems. If it's less than 15%, Piñera could still lose the second round if the left unites against him. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on November 15, 2017, 09:42:40 PM Can't near-a the Piñera?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 18, 2017, 01:36:46 PM I'm very depressed with this election, and still undecided about my choice for tomorrow (probably Guillier). I think the odds of Piñera getting over 50% in the first-round are near 0, I really can't see (despite that he will win the runoff).
Tomorrow I will vote for president, deputy and Core (regional council), my choices are: -President: Leaning Guillier -Deputy: Fernando Atria, from the Socialist Party, constitutional lawyer and part of the wing of the PS that is in favor of a closer relationship with the Frente Amplio. I'm actually very happy for this vote, and I convinced some people to vote for him! :D. My district is very right wing (and the wealthiest in the country) but I think Atria is the best candidate to get the left-wing vote here. -CORE: Marco Undurraga, from the Socialist Party, he is an english teacher for a engineering company and he is the finance chair of the company union. I really don't know his chances but I feel comfortable of voting for him. The first result are coming in like 10 hours, from Australia and New Zealand, so probably before the opening of polls here we are going to see some results. The map of the vote from abroad: () Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 18, 2017, 01:59:26 PM 3 chilean schools did a mock election this week. The results are the following:
() The background of the communes (all from Santiago): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peñalolén https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/San_Bernardo,_Chile https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Puente_Alto Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 18, 2017, 04:42:13 PM 267,116 non-chileans are eligible to vote tomorrow, 11.9% higher than last year (2016 municipal election). That's aprox 1.9% of the electoral universe. Peruvians represent 42% of the total.
The requisites to vote for non-chileans are: 1) Over 18 at election day. 2) Not have been convicted of an afflictive penalty. 3) Have lived in Chile for more than 5 years. (This doesn't consider naturalized chileans) Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 18, 2017, 09:07:04 PM People waiting to vote in Sydney:
() () A reminder, in the primaries (the first election in which people abroad were eligible to vote) in New Zealand (Wellington) the results were the following: Chile Vamos Piñera: 10 votes (35.7%) Kast: 11 (39.3%) Ossandon: 7 (25%) Frente Amplio Sanchez: 10 (58.8%) Mayol: 7 (41.2%) In the case of Australia (Canberra+Melbourne+Sydney+Perth): Chile Vamos Piñera: 110 (45.5%) Kast: 77 (31.8%) Ossandon: 55 (22.75%) Frente Amplio Sanchez: 83 (61.9%) Mayol: 51 (38.1%) A few hours ago the consul in Wellington said that more than 100 people casted their votes, so we can expect a good turnout from abroad, which I don't think it would be the same here, but could help with the projection. I think from Oceania we could expect a strong result from Piñera (maybe 50% of the vote?), meanwhile Sanchez and Guillier would fight for second place, the rest of the candidates will display very poor results I believe. That's a guess, because I have no idea, but it would be interesting. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: Lumine on November 18, 2017, 09:47:13 PM It will be quite an exciting day! Here's hoping for a strong victory for the center-right, although everything depends on turnout.
Tomorrow I will vote for president, deputy and Core (regional council), my choices are: -President: Leaning Guillier -Deputy: Fernando Atria, from the Socialist Party, constitutional lawyer and part of the wing of the PS that is in favor of a closer relationship with the Frente Amplio. I'm actually very happy for this vote, and I convinced some people to vote for him! :D. My district is very right wing (and the wealthiest in the country) but I think Atria is the best candidate to get the left-wing vote here. -CORE: Marco Undurraga, from the Socialist Party, he is an english teacher for a engineering company and he is the finance chair of the company union. I really don't know his chances but I feel comfortable of voting for him. Interesting, seb_pard, from what you've said so far Atria makes perfect sense but I was a bit surprised you're leaning Guillier, I would have been certain you'd go for Sanchez. As for myself I've decided not to go for Piñera in the first round and vote Kast instead, I rather like his economic agenda and his intentions to cut down on the size of government, even if strongly oppose his stances on social issues. I'll probably vote for RN candidates for Senate, Deputy and CORE as well. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 01:16:05 AM It will be quite an exciting day! Here's hoping for a strong victory for the center-right, although everything depends on turnout. Tomorrow I will vote for president, deputy and Core (regional council), my choices are: -President: Leaning Guillier -Deputy: Fernando Atria, from the Socialist Party, constitutional lawyer and part of the wing of the PS that is in favor of a closer relationship with the Frente Amplio. I'm actually very happy for this vote, and I convinced some people to vote for him! :D. My district is very right wing (and the wealthiest in the country) but I think Atria is the best candidate to get the left-wing vote here. -CORE: Marco Undurraga, from the Socialist Party, he is an english teacher for a engineering company and he is the finance chair of the company union. I really don't know his chances but I feel comfortable of voting for him. Interesting, seb_pard, from what you've said so far Atria makes perfect sense but I was a bit surprised you're leaning Guillier, I would have been certain you'd go for Sanchez. As for myself I've decided not to go for Piñera in the first round and vote Kast instead, I rather like his economic agenda and his intentions to cut down on the size of government, even if strongly oppose his stances on social issues. I'll probably vote for RN candidates for Senate, Deputy and CORE as well. I have issues with the way the have developed her campaign (she is a very bad campaigner), I still have issues with Guillier but in a way I think he is more concrete in ways Sanchez isn't. I'm still thinking btw hahaha. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 01:22:49 AM First results from New Zealand :D
141 people voted and the results were (of valid votes): Carolina Goic: 6 votes (4.4%) Jose Antonio Kast: 13 (9.5%) Sebastian Piñera: 24 (17.5%) Alejandro Guillier: 34 (24.8%) Beatriz Sanchez: 51 (37.2%) Marco Enriquez-Ominami: 5 (3.6%) Eduardo Artes: 4 (2.9%) Alejandro Navaro: 0 (0.0%) Based on these results I would say: Stop the election and let's go to the second run based on these results!!! Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: EnglishPete on November 19, 2017, 06:05:30 AM Results from Melbourne, Australia
Guillier 139 Sanchez 137 Piñera 99 Meo 24 Kast 21 Goic 19 Navarro 5 Artes 1 and Beijing, PRC Sánchez 11 Piñera 10 Guillier 8 Goic 5 Kast: 3 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: EnglishPete on November 19, 2017, 06:21:56 AM Sydney, Australia
Guillier 228 Piñera 220 Sanchez 151 Kast 42 Goic 35 Meo 26 Artés 6 Navarro 5 Canberra, Australia Guillier 33 Piñera 17 Sanchez 8 Kast 6 Goic 3 Meo 3 Artés 1 Navarro 0 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 07:59:43 AM Results from China
() Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 10:49:58 AM Contrary to expectations, participation seems high, so probably we are going to see a higher turnout than expected. We are watching on TV polling stations with long lines both in rich and poor communes. That's good news.
I voted like an hour ago, waited 10 minutes to cast my vote, a lot of candidates for deputy (my district chooses 6) and CORE (my district chooses 4). In a few hours we are going to receive the results from Europe, expect excellent results for Sanchez and Guillier and bad for Piñera. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 19, 2017, 10:55:23 AM You got a newspaper/livestream link for us to watch, or are there none up yet?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 12:09:58 PM Off course, this is the link to the livestream of two chilean channels (TVN and Canal 13):
http://www.tvn.cl http://www.t13.cl/en-vivo If it is blocked from abroad just tell me and I'm going to check if there's another link. Also Cooperativa (very good political radio station) it's recording a live stream from facebook, if you know spanish it's worth the listening: https://www.facebook.com/Cooperativa/videos/10155200932205895/?notif_id=1511107377086075¬if_t=live_video I'm going to check if there's anything good in english Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 12:17:24 PM Results from Israel:
Piñera: 42 Guillier: 10 Sanchez 9 Kast: 6 Goic: 4 Enriquez-Ominami: 2 Invalid: 2 Moscow: () Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 01:01:44 PM Oslo:
Guillier: 42 Sanchez: 34 Piñera: 11 Goeic: 7 Enriquez-Ominami: 5 Artés: 1 Navarro: 0 Kast: 0 Invalid: 1 Total: 101 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 01:31:01 PM Barcelona:
Sánchez 382 (44.8%) Guillier 205 (24%) Piñera 169 (19.8%) Goic 35 (4.1%) Kast 25 (2.9%) Meo 24 (2.9%) Artés 9 (1.1%) Navarro 3 (0.4%) Total 853 Invalid: 7 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (A week to go) Post by: Lumine on November 19, 2017, 01:41:15 PM Turnout would appear to be higher than expected, it will be interesting to see how it will affect the results.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 02:06:01 PM Yeah, very interesting, and a positive thing for our democracy.
Madrid: Goic: 33 (4.2%) Kast: 51 (6.5%) Piñera: 265 (33.8%) Guiller: 212 (27%) Sanchez: 204 (26%) MEO: 14 (1.8%) Artes: 5 (0.6%) Navarro: 1 (0.1%) Total: 785 (of valid votes, I don't know how many invalids) Vienna: Goic: 7 (4.7%) Kast: 7 (4.7%) Piñera: 26 (17.3%) Guiller: 48 (32%) Sanchez: 52 (34.7%) MEO: 4 (2.7%) Artes: 3 (2%) Navarro: 3 (2%) Total: 150 2 invalids Paris: Goic: 35 (4.1%) Kast: 15 (1.8%) Piñera: 93 (11%) Guiller: 308 (36.4%) Sanchez: 355 (42%) MEO: 15 (1.8%) Artes: 11 (1.3%) Navarro: 13 (1.5%) Total: 854 9 invalids Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 02:18:20 PM Stockholm:
Goic: 10 (1.3%) Kast: 6 (0.8%) Piñera: 34 (4.5%) Guillier: 466 (62.2%) Sanchez: 173 (23.1%) MEO: 36 (4.8%) Artés: 12 (1.6%) Navarro: 12 (1.6%) Total: 749 (I don't know how many invalids) Good result for Guillier here. Berlin: Goic: 29 (5.3%) Kast: 14 (2.9%) Piñera: 63 (11.6%) Guillier: 101 (18.6%) Sanchez: 312 (57.5%) MEO: 19 (3.5%) Artés: 5 (0.9%) Navarro: 0 (0%) Total 550 7 invalids Sanchez territory Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 02:34:53 PM London:
Sánchez: 41.5% (303) Piñera: 22.7% (166) Guillier: 21.8% (159) Goic: 6.7% (49) Kast: 6.3% (46) Meo: 0.8% (6) Artés: 0.1% (1) Navarro: 0.0% (0) Total: 741 (11 invalid votes) Hamburg: Sánchez: 35,7% (93) Guillier: 22,6% (59) Piñera: 24,6% (64) Kast: 9,6% (25) MEO: 2,30% (6) Goic: 4,23% (11) Artés: 0,38% (1) Navarro: 0,38% (1) Amsterdam: Goic 17 (5.4%) Kast 12 (3.8%) Piñera 65 (20.6%) Guillier 76 (24.1%) Sanchez 132 (41.8%) MEO 13 (4.1%) Artes 1 (0.3%) Navarro 0 (0%) Total 317 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 02:53:45 PM Preliminary results from abroad:
Sánchez: 31.1% (1699) Guillier: 33.6% (1835) Piñera: 21.4% (1168) Kast: 4.5% (246) MEO: 2.9% (163) Goic: 4.5% (246) Artés: 0.9% (50) Navarro: 0.7% (41) Source: https://twitter.com/Ob_electoralUDP/status/932334717831139334 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 19, 2017, 03:02:56 PM Just from adding the results in this thread:
Goic: 259 Kast: 260 Piñera: 1,275 Guillier: 1,969 Sanchez: 2,092 MEO: 187 Artés: 59 Navarro: 43 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 03:09:31 PM Just from adding the results in this thread: Goic: 259 Kast: 260 Piñera: 1,275 Guillier: 1,969 Sanchez: 2,092 MEO: 187 Artés: 59 Navarro: 43 Probably because in the OBPE UDP are trying to certify the results in someway (official results aren't released until 6 PM in Chile-4 PM ET-), but they aren't counting for example the result from Oslo (I saw a video of the counting in Facebook from a Chilean swede radio station) or Israel. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 03:54:00 PM Polls start to close in 10 minutes in Chile, although there are still long lines in many places.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 04:04:59 PM I recommend you this link to watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49gFpr5T-u0 You can see live counting, which I think is very funny to watch! Also you can check official results here: http://www.servelelecciones.cl Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 04:10:56 PM First official results (all from abroad)
1. CAROLINA GOIC BOROEVIC 395 4,85% 2. JOSE ANTONIO KAST RIST 386 4,74% 3. SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE 1.799 22,10% 4. ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ 2.554 31,38% 5. BEATRIZ SANCHEZ MUÑOZ 2.621 32,20% 6. MARCO ENRIQUEZ-OMINAMI GUMUCIO 247 3,03% 7. EDUARDO ARTES BRICHETTI 88 1,08% 8. ALEJANDRO NAVARRO BRAIN 50 0,61% Source: http://www.servelelecciones.cl You can check by country Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 05:00:52 PM With 2.14% of polling stations (125k votes)
Piñera 36,6% Guillier 22,2% Sánchez 20,2% Kast 8,4% Goic 6,1% MEO 5,5% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: RodPresident on November 19, 2017, 05:03:45 PM With 2.14% of polling stations (125k votes) Piñera 36,6% Guillier 22,2% Sánchez 20,2% Kast 8,4% Goic 6,1% MEO 5,5% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 05:07:14 PM Projection by Radio BioBio
() Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 05:16:27 PM In the counting in Tarapaca Region, you can listen people chanting: "Cualquiera, cualquiera, menos Piñera!" (Anyone, anyone but Piñera) jajajaja.
Needless to say that I'm very happy with these results, I was expecting Piñera over 40% (around 45%). :D :D Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 05:19:08 PM With 2.14% of polling stations (125k votes) Piñera 36,6% Guillier 22,2% Sánchez 20,2% Kast 8,4% Goic 6,1% MEO 5,5% Yes I think, outside RM I think Guillier will get much better results than Sachez, although she will win in Santiago (she is doing very good with the urban middle class). No I don't think so about MEO, he is an egocentric narcissist and he was still thinking he would win (and he dedicated his campaign to attack Guillier). He burned bridges with anyone. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: jaichind on November 19, 2017, 05:30:58 PM Any exit polls on how a Piñera vs Guillier second round would look like ?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 19, 2017, 05:31:38 PM Is there any newspaper with a nationwide map? Perhaps I have been spoiled by all the European elections recently. Servel doesn't appear to have one, and I have been checking some of the papers sites, though I haven't seen one, yet.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 05:42:58 PM There aren't any exit poll, and judging by these results any poll that we had before the election is useless.
With respect to maps, no we haven't, we will have in a few days probably but we don't use maps for elections (if I see one I would post ASAP), one of the reasons is the shape of the country, is too long and narrow. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: jaichind on November 19, 2017, 05:47:01 PM It is interesting that we went from 2% of the vote counted to 33% yet the rough ratio of votes between Piñera, Guillier, and Sánchez are mostly constant. Are there some large urban areas (like Santiago) which are reporting much slower or much faster than the country as a whole. If not then I suspect what we have now will be the results.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 05:52:00 PM It is interesting that we went from 2% of the vote counted to 33% yet the rough ratio of votes between Piñera, Guillier, and Sánchez are mostly constant. Are there some large urban areas (like Santiago) which are reporting much slower or much faster than the country as a whole. If not then I suspect what we have now will be the results. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: jaichind on November 19, 2017, 05:52:47 PM With 2.14% of polling stations (125k votes) Piñera 36,6% Guillier 22,2% Sánchez 20,2% Kast 8,4% Goic 6,1% MEO 5,5% Why would that be? Would not Piñera pick up the Kast and Goic votes on the second round? I must be missing something. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 19, 2017, 05:54:40 PM Is it just me, or has Piñera been very slowly creeping up in the vote?
Edit: As I say this, I just realized we have been stuck at 43% for a while. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 05:58:25 PM With 2.14% of polling stations (125k votes) Piñera 36,6% Guillier 22,2% Sánchez 20,2% Kast 8,4% Goic 6,1% MEO 5,5% Why would that be? Would not Piñera pick up the Kast and Goic votes on the second round? I must be missing something. The thing is that Guillier will have to show a consistent message, a thing that was lacked during the campaign. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 06:01:27 PM Is it just me, or has Piñera been very slowly creeping up in the vote? Edit: As I say this, I just realized we have been stuck at 43% for a while. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: jaichind on November 19, 2017, 06:02:36 PM Is it just me, or has Piñera been very slowly creeping up in the vote? Edit: As I say this, I just realized we have been stuck at 43% for a while. Yeah, but the vote shares stay virtually unchanged. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 19, 2017, 06:11:53 PM Piñera gains .01% as we jump to 61%. The vote is just too stable!
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: Maxwell on November 19, 2017, 06:20:04 PM huh
judging by this, Guillier has a real shot in Round 2. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 19, 2017, 06:27:23 PM In the last update, Guillier passed the One Million vote mark.
Piñera passed it a while ago, and Sanchez is less then 100K off. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 19, 2017, 06:43:11 PM Any idea why Aysén del General Carlos Ibáñez del Campo's count is so far behind the nation?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 06:45:45 PM My polling station:
Piñera: 183 (67.78%) Kast: 29 (10.74%) Goic: 20 (7.41%) Sanchez: 18 (6.67%) Guiller: 16 (5.93%) Artes: 3 (1.11%) Navarro: 1 (0.37%) Total: 270 4 invalid votes. Totally expected haha Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 06:50:27 PM Any idea why Aysén del General Carlos Ibáñez del Campo's count is so far behind the nation? () Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 06:55:47 PM Goic is speaking, talking about a worst than expected outcome. The party is very divided, so don't expect an endorsement until the leaders meet in the next days. Although she congratulated specially Alejandro Guillier, wishing her best to defeat Piñera.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 19, 2017, 06:58:56 PM My polling station: Piñera: 183 (67.78%) Kast: 29 (10.74%) Goic: 20 (7.41%) Sanchez: 18 (6.67%) Guiller: 16 (5.93%) Artes: 3 (1.11%) Navarro: 1 (0.37%) Total: 270 4 invalid votes. Totally expected haha Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 07:38:52 PM Now let's focus on congress. For deputies 41% of the vote is counted (later we will se the elected deputies) and the preliminary results by party/group is the following:
Chile Vamos (center-right to right): 38.6% -UDI: 16.7% -RN: 17.5% -Evopoli: 3.6% -PRI: 3.6% New Majority (center-left to left): 24.4% -Communist Party: 4.5% -Socialist Party: 9.9% -Party for Democracy: 6.3% -Social Democratic Radical Party: 3.7% Christian Democrats (center): 10.4% Broad Front (left): 16.3% Pro (center-left): 3.3% Chile is left of center country, this is a very good result for the Broad Front and a descent result for New Majority. Chile Vamos still have problems reaching 40%. Later we will se the composition of congress. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 19, 2017, 07:39:23 PM My polling station: Piñera: 183 (67.78%) Kast: 29 (10.74%) Goic: 20 (7.41%) Sanchez: 18 (6.67%) Guiller: 16 (5.93%) Artes: 3 (1.11%) Navarro: 1 (0.37%) Total: 270 4 invalid votes. Totally expected haha Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 19, 2017, 09:27:11 PM So Guillier has to be favored in the second round, right? Assuming he can consolidate the support of Goic, Sanchez and MEO.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: CatoMinor on November 19, 2017, 10:47:18 PM Unless I'm mistaken havn't polls showed Piñera leading in the second round?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: International Brotherhood of Bernard on November 19, 2017, 11:23:21 PM Unless I'm mistaken havn't polls showed Piñera leading in the second round? Those polls also had him in the 40s in the first round and he got 36%, plus I imagine the second round is a whole different ballgame from the pre-first round campaign. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 19, 2017, 11:29:36 PM Unless I'm mistaken havn't polls showed Piñera leading in the second round? Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: mileslunn on November 20, 2017, 01:04:21 AM It looks like more voted for parties on the left than right. Doubt Guiller will win, but it seems Pinera underperformed most polls. Could it be many on the right thought he had it in the bag so stayed home? What about those who voted for other left wing parties; will they mostly go over to Guillier, will some go over to Pinera, or will many just not vote at all?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: seb_pard on November 20, 2017, 06:50:01 AM I don't think that many people on the right stayed at home, they are very disciplined and until yesterday they were very excited with the possible outcome.
It's important to know the context that we had until sunday. The left was totally demoralized, and the press was expecting a night of the long knives among the New Majority and the Broad Frond with the reconquest of the party of order (a group of politicians of the old Concertación that were the leaders during the transition and are very critical of Bachelet). The right to the contrary, has seen this election as the last chance to save the country from a government and a ideology that they really don't like (I always have seen the right here not so much as free marketers as pretty much defenders of their businesses, as you can see for example with Transbank, the credit cart service-I will explain laterthat-). What happened yesterday? Piñera did a lot worse than expected (they hoped to win in the first round), Guillier a little better than expected and Sanchez much better than expected. In congress the Broad Front won 20 seats (the best case scenario for them was 10!) and among the New Majority and the Christian Democrats, the politicians that were more critical of Bachelet performed very bad, so I think this is a victory for Bachelet. People here want a further implementation of reforms and aren't critical of the policies of the New Majority, but of the way the coalition acts. Piñera is still the favorite, but yesterday the narrative changed, and now Guillier has a path to win, he knows now how to work to defeat Piñera. It's a though job, but until yesterday it was impossible. A good article in El Mostrador (online newspaper): Chile wakes up looking to the left http://www.elmostrador.cl/noticias/pais/2017/11/20/chile-amanece-mirando-a-la-izquierda/ Yesterday was a very good night for progressives, specially due to our expectations. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - November 19th (Election Day) Post by: Lumine on November 20, 2017, 10:25:14 AM It was quite a night, Chile Vamos and the right won an astounding victory in Congress and with the Frente Amplio having such an unexpectedly good performance Nueva Mayoria is now reduced to virtually a third of the Chamber of Deputies. The candidate I was working for also won with some good numbers, so I'm very much encouraged after last night.
As to the second round, it's impossible to say. On one hand, it shouldn't be feasible for Guillier to go from 22% to more than 50% given the large distance involved, but on the other hand it is hard to see where Piñera could gain more votes among those who already voted on the first round. Even if we assume Kast voters all go for him and most of the Christian Democrats do too (which is a bit of a far-fetched scenario) it still doesn't amount to 50%. It will be tense, although I've relaxed after seeing the numbers in Congress. Even if Guillier is elected he'll be a lameduck with that level of support, not even a deal with the Frente Amplio (which would be extremely divisive) will get him a parliamentary majority. If Piñera fails, well, we'll just have to stand strong in Congress and try another time. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: DavidB. on November 20, 2017, 02:31:27 PM Cas Mudde, expert on the populist radical right in Europe and the U.S., tweeted that José Antonio Kast is "far right". What is his profile exactly, beyond what was said in the OP?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - Waiting for Piñera and Lagos Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 20, 2017, 03:11:16 PM A bit OT, but is Bachelet's Presidential portrait just a photoshopped version of her campaign portrait? Her face looks exactly the same: () () Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 20, 2017, 03:47:39 PM So what do the Congress results look like? I can't find anything on Wikipedia.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on November 20, 2017, 04:04:32 PM So what do the Congress results look like? I can't find anything on Wikipedia. Senate (43): Chile Vamos (19): 9 UDI, 8 RN, 2 EVO Nueva Mayoria (16): 7 PPD, 7 PS, 1 PRSD, 1 IND Frente Amplio (1): 1 RD Other (7): 5 PDC, 1 PAIS, 1 IND Deputies (155): Chile Vamos (73): 36 RN, 31 UDI, 6 EVO Nueva Mayoria (43): 18 PS, 9 PRSD, 8 PPD, 8 PC Frente Amplio (20): 10 RD, PH 5, PL 2, PEV 1, PI, 1, PODER 1 Other (19): 13 PDC, 4 FRSV, 1 PRO, 1 IND Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on November 20, 2017, 04:12:15 PM So what do the Congress results look like? I can't find anything on Wikipedia. Senate (43): Chile Vamos (19): 9 UDI, 8 RN, 2 EVO Nueva Mayoria (16): 7 PPD, 7 PS, 1 PRSD, 1 IND Frente Amplio (1): 1 RD Other (7): 5 PDC, 1 PAIS, 1 IND Deputies (155): Chile Vamos (73): 36 RN, 31 UDI, 6 EVO Nueva Mayoria (43): 18 PS, 9 PRSD, 8 PPD, 8 PC Frente Amplio (20): 10 RD, PH 5, PL 2, PEV 1, PI, 1, PODER 1 Other (19): 13 PDC, 4 FRSV, 1 PRO, 1 IND Also here http://www.emol.com/noticias/Nacional/2017/11/19/883846/Interactivo-de-la-Camara-de-Diputados-Como-queda-conformado-el-hemiciclo.html Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on November 20, 2017, 06:45:35 PM Breaking news: Carolina Goic has resigned as leader of the DC and the Christian Democrats have announced their support for Alejandro Guillier.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: MAINEiac4434 on November 20, 2017, 06:55:16 PM Breaking news: Carolina Goic has resigned as leader of the DC and the Christian Democrats have announced their support for Alejandro Guillier. The election surprises don't stop! Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 20, 2017, 07:07:30 PM Shocking. Just further confirms that the sleepiness felt before the first round is now gone. And the thing is, we don't even have any idea who is favored. Piñera is leads, but has fewer votes to gain from the other parties. Guillier has more votes to gain, but also more votes to lose. With the divisions in the left from the past year, I doubt Guillier is going to hold anywhere close to 100% of the voters that turned out. There is going to be some dropoff, as people find reasons to sit out and register their dissatisfaction with the choices. For a first round electorate that I would say is probably 52-54% left/48-46% right, this is dangerous for Guillier.
On a separate note, which color do you think is better for the Broad Front on a map: Purple like you have been using, or Orange/brown which Wikipedia uses. Red for NM, Blue for CV obviously. Surprisingly for the Broad Front vote share, I have only found three (non-foreign) communes Sanchez won: Rapa Nui, Vaparaiso, and Puento Alto south of Santiago. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on November 21, 2017, 06:47:38 AM Shocking. Just further confirms that the sleepiness felt before the first round is now gone. And the thing is, we don't even have any idea who is favored. Piñera is leads, but has fewer votes to gain from the other parties. Guillier has more votes to gain, but also more votes to lose. With the divisions in the left from the past year, I doubt Guillier is going to hold anywhere close to 100% of the voters that turned out. There is going to be some dropoff, as people find reasons to sit out and register their dissatisfaction with the choices. For a first round electorate that I would say is probably 52-54% left/48-46% right, this is dangerous for Guillier. On a separate note, which color do you think is better for the Broad Front on a map: Purple like you have been using, or Orange/brown which Wikipedia uses. Red for NM, Blue for CV obviously. Surprisingly for the Broad Front vote share, I have only found three (non-foreign) communes Sanchez won: Rapa Nui, Vaparaiso, and Puento Alto south of Santiago. Yes, Sanchez only won those three communes, that besides Rapa Nui, those aren't small wins. Valparaiso is one of the most famous cities in the country, and have a lot of issues like poverty, trash and cultural preservation. The mayor is from the Broad Front (Jorge Sharp) and he is pretty popular there, and from what I listened, he is doing a very good job. Puente Alto is a suburb of Santiago and is one of the most populous communes in the country (maybe the first or second), it's a mix of middle class population and some poor neighborhoods ridden by poverty and crime. Rapa Nui is the Eastern island, and the voting pattern there seems a little bit clientelistic. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: warandwar on November 21, 2017, 12:29:10 PM What are the various characteristics/ideologies of the parties in the Broad Front?
I'm liking the looks of this. A friend of mine who's very high up in DSA is visiting Chile this December. Seems like a good time to meet up with some socialists! Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on November 23, 2017, 03:36:15 PM Cas Mudde, expert on the populist radical right in Europe and the U.S., tweeted that José Antonio Kast is "far right". What is his profile exactly, beyond what was said in the OP? I would assert the "far-right" monicker to be rather misguided, Kast is a right-winger and has a fair share of alt-right followers (very present in social media), but to put him aside people like Le Pen for example would be a mistake. Kast is for all purposes a staunchly social conservative, pro-free market figure with a hard-line profile given his ocassional ties to pro-Pinochet views (unlike many in UDI, it should be noted Kast was not in politics during Pinochet's regime), but with a platform with views that would be considered normal for a right-wing candidate in other parts of the world. He supports fighting the deficit, reducing the government size, some increased gun rights and he has a strong anti-left discourse. He's demonized as this uber pro-Pinochet right winger by quite a few, but the more I learned about Kast during the campaign the more interested he seemed regardless of how much I disapprove of many of his policies. Being a country that leans to the center-left and Piñera being in permanent moderate hero mode, it's refreshing seeing a presidential candidate actually defending right-wing views or policies. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on November 26, 2017, 06:30:48 PM La Tercera asked elected senators and deputies different questions about economic, moral and politic themes, and gives the results by coalition (they add the DC to New Majority). It's pretty interesting, these are the results:
Economic issues 1. Free college education: How would you vote? Blue: Maintain current coverage (the poorer 50% of the population Red: Expand Black: End free education and relocate resources () 2. Pension system: How would you vote (link: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pensions_in_Chile ) Blue: Abolish the AFPs (private insurers) Red: Reform the system without abolishing the AFPs () 3. About the financing of the army: Blue: In favor of abolishing the Reserved Law of Copper (10% of gross revenues of CODELCO, chilean largest state company, goes to the army) Red: Against () 4. Healthcare system: Blue: Abolish the ISAPRES (private insurers) and implementate universal insurance. Red: Against of abolishing the ISAPRES. () Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on November 26, 2017, 06:49:06 PM Politics
1. Limiting reelection in congress. Blue: Keep current system (unlimited reelection). Red: Limit reelection () 2. Constitutional Assembly Blue: In favor Red: Against () 3. New constitution (are you in favor of a mechanism to elaborate a new constitution?) Blue: In favor Red: Against () 4. Eastern Island: More or Less Autonomy? Blue: More Red: Less () 5. Mandatory or voluntary vote? Blue: Mandatory Red: Voluntary () 6. Maintain the current presidential system (without consecutive reelection)? Blue: Keep the 4 years without reelection Red: Change it. () 7. Are you in favor of lowered the salaries of senators and deputies? Blue: Lower it Red: Against () 8. Are you in favor of closing Punta Peuco (jail of human rights violators, has high standards and there's a lot of pressure to close it and send the convicts to regular jails)? Blue: Close it Red: Keep it () 9. Are you in favor of reducing the minimum age of penal responsibility? Blue: In favor Red: Against () 10. Are the attacks in the Araucania considered terrorism (Mapuche conflict)? Blue: Yes Red: No () 11. In favor of give to Bolivia sovereign access to the sea? Blue: Yes Red: No () 12. Keep Congress in Valparaiso or change it to Santiago? Blue: Valparaiso Red: Santiago () Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on November 26, 2017, 06:57:03 PM Moral Issues
1. Are you in favor that transgender children can change legally their genders? Blue: In favor Red: Against () 2. Legalization of weed Blue: In favor Red: Against () 3. In favor of same-sex couples adopting? Blue: In favor Red: Against () 4. Same-sex Marriage Blue: In favor Red: Against () 5. In favor of voluntary Euthanasia for terminal patients? Blue: In favor Red: Against () 6. Abortion: Expand the three causal? (I posted about it a few months ago) Blue: Expan them Red: Against expand them (could be keep them or abolish them) () 7. Limit Rodeo? (chilean sport, very cruel against cows) Blue: Limit it Red: Don't limit () Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on November 26, 2017, 07:23:08 PM What are the various characteristics/ideologies of the parties in the Broad Front? I'm liking the looks of this. A friend of mine who's very high up in DSA is visiting Chile this December. Seems like a good time to meet up with some socialists! I have many friends from college who are Democratic Revolution's militants (largest party of the Broad Front), and if you or your friend want to I could arrange a meeting or something like that with Rodrigo Echecopar, RD's president (could also with Giorgio Jackson, but honestly, that could be much harder). Seriously, I could happily do it. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Maxwell on November 26, 2017, 07:53:53 PM those numbers on social issues are pretty surprising to me - I've made the assumption that Latin American countries are fairly socially conservative in comparison to the United States. Yet I bet the numbers in the US House would probably match those in the Chilean legislature and so many many more in Chile support marijuana legalization.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Velasco on November 26, 2017, 09:06:38 PM Just finished a first riund map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link.
https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on November 27, 2017, 08:26:03 PM The campaign to win over more allies is in full force! Piñera has gathered Jose Antonio Kast and his bitter rival Senator Jose Manuel Ossandon, solifidying the right behind him. He's also recieved support from some members of the centrist liberal party Ciudadanos, although Andres Velasco has remained neutral. Guillier has recieved the endorsements of Goic, Navarro and Ominami, plus the Federación Regionalista Verde Social (a minor party that just won 4 Deputies thanks to the new electoral system).
Several parties inside the Frente Amplio have refused to support Guillier or declared their party members are free to vote for any candidate (that is to say, to freely vote Guillier or not vote at all). It is however possible that Revolucion Democratica (by far the most powerful party inside the coalition) decides to support Guillier. There's the first poll too, from Cadem. Cadem itself has come under heavy fire for overestimating Piñera and underestimating Sanchez, so don't read too much into it: Cadem: Runoff: Piñera 40% Guillier 37% Undecided 23% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on November 27, 2017, 08:29:31 PM Just finished a first riund map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link. https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png Great work, Velasco! Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 27, 2017, 10:59:00 PM Wow, Guillier may yet win this.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on November 27, 2017, 11:25:44 PM Wow, Guillier may yet win this. I would argue he has a 40-45% chance of winning, actually. Piñera's ceiling is way too low, so it's all depending on turnout. If more than 60-70% of Sanchez voters turn out for Guillier, Piñera is toast. Either way it should be awfully close, closest election since 1999-2000. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Velasco on November 28, 2017, 03:49:23 AM I'd say Piñera is still the favourite, but the second round is going to be more exciting than expected. The surge of Frente Amplio has changed everything and refutes some preconceived notions, such as most of people in Chile thinking that reforms went too far. Also, the good performance of José Antonio Kast talks about the continued existence of an ultraconservative vote nostalgic for Pinochet. Frente Amplio and Kast are opposite poles: the future and the past.
The main problem for Piñera is that he needs to attract centrist voters, while needs to retain the ultraconservative "Tea Party" represented by Kast. In that regard, Piñera has the advantage that most of Kast voters may support him just to stop the left. I'd say that Piñera should not make concessions to his right wing and focus on the wavering centrist vote. The problem for Alejandro Guillier is that he's far from having secured the support of FA voters. My opinion is that people in the governing centre-left coalition should make a correct reading of the result. They have lost the hegemony in the progressive camp. Guillier and the coalition supporting him need to make attractive offers in order to attract the FA vote, as well to retain the centrist vote represented by the PDC. It's quite a delicate balance. Great work, Velasco! Thank you. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: parochial boy on November 29, 2017, 11:36:57 AM Just finished a first riund map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link. https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png Awesome, what is with the red area north of Santiago? Gazing at a map, there doesn't seem to be very much there Is it down to a home region as Guillier is from La Serena? or something more to it? Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Velasco on November 29, 2017, 06:49:48 PM Just finished a first round map of results by commune. It's too big-sized for uploading to my gallery, so I'll leave a link. https://saintbrendansisland.files.wordpress.com/2017/11/chile-2017.png Awesome, what is with the red area north of Santiago? Gazing at a map, there doesn't seem to be very much there Is it down to a home region as Guillier is from La Serena? or something more to it? Thank you. Coquimbo region has been always a Concertación/Nueva Mayoría stronghold, especially the southern communes in the province of Choapa. Also, this red area in the map incorporates three communes located in the NE of Valparaíso region. There are important mine sites located there. Los Pelambres in the commune of Salamanca (Coquimbo) is one of the biggest copper mines in the world; a big vein is located in the communes of Cabildo and Petorca in Valparaíso region. This area is also located in the natural region known as Norte Chico. It has a semi-arid climate and there is agriculture in the valleys. Even though Alejandro Guillier is from La Serena, his result there doesn't look very impressive. He got 27.1% in the Coquimbo region, which is a percentage 4.4% higher than his vote nationwide. However in La Serena his vote dropped to 22.9%, which is only 0.2% higher than average. His best results in this region were in the communes of Canela (52.8%) and Combarbalá (46%). Canela is located in the coast and it was the epicentre of the 2015 earthquake, as well it was the first place in Chile developing wind power and one of the five poorest communes in Chile. Possibly our Chilean posters could tell you more. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: jaichind on November 30, 2017, 09:06:36 AM https://www.cooperativa.cl/noticias/pais/politica/presidenciales/encuesta-criteria-research-pinera-51-y-guillier-46-/2017-11-30/072637.html
Criteria Research Survey: Piñera 51% Guillier 46% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Mike88 on November 30, 2017, 02:56:13 PM It's getting close...
CADEM poll: 39.8% Piñera 37.3% Guillier 22.9% Undecided Without undecided: 51.6% Piñera 48.4% Guillier Poll conducted between 22 and 24 November. Polled 1,442 voters. MoE of 2.6% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on November 30, 2017, 03:42:36 PM It Fixed it for you. TBH, these polls are bad for Guilliar, since as I stated earlier, the electorate in first round was probably 54-56% left wing voters. If he ends up with 46-48% of the vote, that means quite a few voters are staying home. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Velasco on December 01, 2017, 03:16:04 AM Frente Amplio avoids giving an explicit endorsement to Alejandro Guiilier.
Candidate Beatriz Sánchez read a statement yesterday evening which reflects the formal and consensus position of the coalition. The statement reaffirms the "independence and autonomy" of the leftist block from "the other coalitions" in the context of a "new political cycle in Chile". "We are not and we don't feel the owners of the persons' votes, thus our first call is to every one of our voters to reflect and express themselves at the polls in accordance to their beliefs and analyses." "Because Chile is our concern, it's not the same for us who governs. We know that Sebastián Piñera represents a regression: more inequality, less rights and liberties (...)" "Citizens need greater clarity from the Nueva Mayoría with regard to the suppression of the AFP (privately funded pension system), a quality public education without debt and profit, the democratization of the country through a Constituent Assembly and Tax Justice". Beatriz Sánchez remarked that they don't want to negotiate offices nor a coalition government, as well that they are not granting freedom of action because they are not the owners of the votes. "We trust in people and their ability to decide". Finally the Frente Amplio calls Alejandro Guillier to get rid of ambiguous positions on key issues (pension system, education, constitutional and tax reform) in order to "search majorities among the Chilean citizens". Later deputy Gabriel Boric (the leading figure of the FA alongside deputy Giorgio Jackson) remarked that they call not to vote Piñera, after senator Andrés Allamand said that the FA slammed the door to Guillier. Allamand, who was minister with Piñera, considers that the FA release is a "resounding political failure" for the candidate of the Nueva Mayoría reminder. On the opposite side, PS chairman Álvaro Elizalde said that he has no doubt that, after a reflection on what's at stake, a majority of those supporting Beatriz Sánchez in the first round will vote Guillier in the second round. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Velasco on December 04, 2017, 01:11:38 AM Parliamentary elections
() Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 05, 2017, 06:05:41 AM Beautiful maps!
Yesterday Beatriz Sanchez endorsed Guillier, after Piñera claimed about voting fraud (showing his lack of respect for our democracy). Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Kamala on December 05, 2017, 12:44:45 PM “O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: CatoMinor on December 05, 2017, 12:53:16 PM “O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take. When I was in Santiago the O'Higgins stop on the metro seemed odd until I learned who he was. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on December 05, 2017, 05:59:15 PM “O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Velasco on December 07, 2017, 12:54:08 AM “O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take. Why not learning something about Chile before posting silly comments? For instance: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bernardo_O%27Higgins Quote Bernardo O'Higgins Riquelme; 1778–1842) was a Chilean independence leader who freed Chile from Spanish rule in the Chilean War of Independence. He was a wealthy landowner of Spanish and Irish ancestry.[1] Although he was the second Supreme Director of Chile (1817–1823), he is considered one of Chile's founding fathers, as he was the first holder of this title to head a fully independent Chilean state. Bernardo O'Higgins, a member of the O'Higgins Family, was born in the Chilean city of Chillán in 1778, the illegitimate son of Ambrosio O'Higgins, 1st Marquis of Osorno,[2] a Spanish officer born in County Sligo, Ireland, who became governor of Chile and later viceroy of Peru. His mother was Isabel Riquelme, a prominent local;[2] the daughter of Don Simón Riquelme y Goycolea, a member of the Chillán Cabildo, or council.(...) (More trivia: a certain Leopoldo O'Donnell was a prominent political figure in the XIX Century Spain). The name of incumbent president Michelle Bachelet sounds suspiciously French. Further examination might reveal you that many Chilean politicians have names that suggest European ancestry from countries that are not Spain. For instance, there is an abnormally high proportion of Croatian surnames -including FA deputy Gabriel Boric-. There is some FA deputy called "Jackson" because his father is English. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Kamala on December 07, 2017, 01:01:49 AM “O’Higgins” being associated with Chile always makes me do a double take. Why not learning something about Chile before posting silly comments? I know who Bernado O'Higgins is; please don't assume I'm an idiot. "Double take" implies I do know why he's associated with Chile, just that it's a surprising connection. "O'Higgins" is just so in-your-face Irish that it's kinda jarring, especially with no Hispanicization of his name. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 01:07:26 AM These last weeks has been rough for me (too much work+studying for GMAT) but this is election day so I am gonna give me a break.
Results from New Zealand: Guillier 89 (76%) Piñera 28 (24%) Invalid 4 First round: Sánchez: 51 Guillier: 34 Piñera: 24 Kast: 13 Goic: 6 ME-O: 5 Artés: 4 Navarro: 0 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 01:13:03 AM Plus some updates from last week:
Guillier closed his campaign with an event with Jose Mujica (former president of Uruguay) and received some international endorsements (Pedro Sanchez and Jeremy Corbyn). Piñera received the endorsement of Macri and said that he received the endorsement from Patch Adams, but the celebrity said in he would never endorse Piñera and his policies, truly weird all that. Piñera really got desperate during these last weeks, his campaign was a disaster compared to the first round. Guillier's wasn't stellar, but he closed in a good shape with Mujica. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Octowakandi on December 17, 2017, 01:20:49 AM Plus some updates from last week: Guillier closed his campaign with an event with Jose Mujica (former president of Uruguay) and received some international endorsements (Pedro Sanchez and Jeremy Corbyn). Piñera received the endorsement of Macri and said that he received the endorsement from Patch Adams, but the celebrity said in he would never endorse Piñera and his policies, truly weird all that. Piñera really got desperate during these last weeks, his campaign was a disaster compared to the first round. Guillier's wasn't stellar, but he closed in a good shape with Mujica. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 07:23:00 AM Australia:
Guillier: 818 (65%) Piñera: 444 (35%) Invalid: 25 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 07:38:40 AM Plus some updates from last week: Guillier closed his campaign with an event with Jose Mujica (former president of Uruguay) and received some international endorsements (Pedro Sanchez and Jeremy Corbyn). Piñera received the endorsement of Macri and said that he received the endorsement from Patch Adams, but the celebrity said in he would never endorse Piñera and his policies, truly weird all that. Piñera really got desperate during these last weeks, his campaign was a disaster compared to the first round. Guillier's wasn't stellar, but he closed in a good shape with Mujica. The problem I think is that the right overplayed their cards in this election, they are (also their electorate) desperate to defeat the government and stop the reforms and they though that the unpopularity of the Bachelet meant that the people supported that program, but actually the people who rejected the reforms as a whole was just a fraction (and seems not a big one) and the people got scared with the right being more vocal about their intentions. And yes, Macri must feels alone, specially with PPK's corruption scandal in Peru (interesting that it isn't a thread about this, because impeachment and new elections seems likely). Link about Peru: https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/15/world/americas/peru-president-odebrecht.html?_r=0 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 08:33:15 AM Any predictions on Final results/margins? My take during the first round was that if everyone that voted in the first round turned out to vote, then Guilliar would easily win. However, such a scenario was at the time hard to see happening due to the divisions in the left. The question is, has Guilliar perfectly unified the left vote, or will there be significant dropoff?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Tender Branson on December 17, 2017, 10:14:19 AM My prediction:
51.32% Guillier 48.68% Piñera Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Octowakandi on December 17, 2017, 10:41:27 AM Plus some updates from last week: Guillier closed his campaign with an event with Jose Mujica (former president of Uruguay) and received some international endorsements (Pedro Sanchez and Jeremy Corbyn). Piñera received the endorsement of Macri and said that he received the endorsement from Patch Adams, but the celebrity said in he would never endorse Piñera and his policies, truly weird all that. Piñera really got desperate during these last weeks, his campaign was a disaster compared to the first round. Guillier's wasn't stellar, but he closed in a good shape with Mujica. The problem I think is that the right overplayed their cards in this election, they are (also their electorate) desperate to defeat the government and stop the reforms and they though that the unpopularity of the Bachelet meant that the people supported that program, but actually the people who rejected the reforms as a whole was just a fraction (and seems not a big one) and the people got scared with the right being more vocal about their intentions. And yes, Macri must feels alone, specially with PPK's corruption scandal in Peru (interesting that it isn't a thread about this, because impeachment and new elections seems likely). That Peru situation is interesting though as you've got the Fujimorists and the left uniting to throw out PKK. I've heard from others that the first Vice President, Vizcarra, will likely decline the Presidency due to his association with the disaster of Chincheros Airport and the second VP Araoz would get it. What's the procedure for early elections? Does it happen if the president is removed or does the VP serve out the full term? And will be interesting to see how Keiko runs this time around since she can go "I told you so." Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 11:30:01 AM Voted an hour ago, very fast compared to the first round (but then I also voted for CORE and deputy).
There's a lot of uncertainty about the results, no one knows who is favorite to win, but this is turnout, if turnout is high, Guillier is likely to win. My (bold?) predicition is the following: Guillier 52.15% Piñera 47.85% You see the right very confident to win (from my job, from my friends, etc.) but I think that hides the thing that they are very nervous about this and are very vocal (that's why I'm thinking there's a shy Guillier vote, is not that easy to say that you are going to vote for Guillier in some places). Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 11:42:00 AM China
Piñera: 101 (73%) Guillier: 37 (27%) Vote from abroad consolidated Guillier: NZ, Aus, Japan, Thailand, Russia, Korea (empate) Piñera: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Philipines, UAE, India, Egypt, South Africa, Jordania, Korea (empate) Piñera 40.6% (712 votos) Guillier 59,4% (1040 votos) Source: https://twitter.com/wuinters/status/942433840412446720 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 12:02:39 PM China Piñera: 101 (73%) Guillier: 37 (27%) Vote from abroad consolidated Guillier: NZ, Aus, Japan, Thailand, Russia, Korea (empate) Piñera: China, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Philipines, UAE, India, Egypt, South Africa, Jordania, Korea (empate) Piñera 40.6% (712 votos) Guillier 59,4% (1040 votos) Source: https://twitter.com/wuinters/status/942433840412446720 These result do show that the left is losing votes from the first round, but will it b enough for Piñera to win... Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Donnie on December 17, 2017, 12:50:12 PM What time (ET) the polls close?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 01:06:12 PM What time (ET) the polls close? Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 01:11:02 PM Results from Europe
Paris 1 Guillier 118 Piñera 15 Paris 3 Guillier 164 Piñera 24 Stockholm 3 Guillier 168 Piñera 9 Barcelona 1 Guillier 103 Piñera 28 Barcelona 3 Guillier 92 Piñera 34 Barcelona 6 Guillier 43 Piñera 22 Madrid 3 Guillier 122 Piñera 116 Madrid 4 Guillier 83 Piñera 77 Madrid 2 Guillier 75 Piñera 102 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 01:42:43 PM I'm going to be contrary to the other views expressed here and say Piñera pulls it out. Thanks to the divisions in the left during the first round, not enough BF voters will qant to turn up and vote NM.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: mvd10 on December 17, 2017, 02:13:28 PM Why is Piñera so unpopular abroad?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 02:17:56 PM Why is Piñera so unpopular abroad? He is going to improve in America (USA, Canada, Peru, etc.) but the european vote is specially left-wing, because many exiled people by Pinochet regime were received in Europe (France, Sweden, etc.) and although some returned many stayed there, and they are particularly left-wing, also there's some autoselection with respect to postgraduates. If you want to do a master/Ph.D abroad, if you choose USA there's a higher probability of being to the right, and if you choose Europe you have a higher probability to be on the left. This is obviously an oversimplification, but there's some pattern there. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 02:21:23 PM I'm going to be contrary to the other views expressed here and say Piñera pulls it out. Thanks to the divisions in the left during the first round, not enough BF voters will qant to turn up and vote NM. You could be totally right, the division in the chilean left is something to consider, but I don't think the two groups (and their electorates) are too divisive between them (we are divided, but not like France or Germany). We will se today, but there's no reason to see what you said. Today we will see the how BF voters react to Guillier and Piñera. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 02:35:10 PM Vote from Abroad until now
Oceania🇳🇿🇦🇺 Asia🇯🇵🇸🇬🇰🇷🇨🇳🇲🇾🇵🇭🇹🇭🇮🇩 Africa🇿🇦 Middle East🇮🇱🇦🇪 Europe🇷🇺🇫🇷🇪🇸🇨🇭🇵🇱🇳🇱🇸🇪🇬🇧*🇮🇹 Piñera 30.7% (2,209) Guillier: 69.3% (4,987) https://twitter.com/Ob_electoralUDP/status/942477501753896960 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: DL on December 17, 2017, 02:41:36 PM In my experience Chileans in Canada tend to be very leftwing
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 02:46:51 PM In my experience Chileans in Canada tend to be very leftwing Well I checked the results from Canada and Piñera got crushed in the first round (16%), I don't know why I though it could be more to the right. The US to the contrary Piñera achieved 49%. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on December 17, 2017, 03:36:45 PM This will be a tense afternoon... I want to think Piñera pulls it off as it doesn't look like turnout was strong, but I'm prepared for a very narrow Guillier win based on mere anti-Piñera voters.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 03:53:08 PM Honestly I'm starting to think that Piñera will win. Turnout seems significantly lower than the first round (but higher in the upper class communes), the right is very motivated and apparently the Broad Front electorate (not the majority but a significant part) didn't bother to vote this time.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 04:01:37 PM Polls now start to close, you can check official results here:
http://www.servelelecciones.cl Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 04:02:35 PM Any exit polls ?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 04:04:29 PM Nope we don't have
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 04:06:09 PM Polls now start to close, you can check official results here: http://www.servelelecciones.cl If there are international counts already why does this link show zero votes for both candidates ? Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 04:08:45 PM Polls now start to close, you can check official results here: http://www.servelelecciones.cl If there are international counts already why does this link show zero votes for both candidates ? That link is to the total vote. If you click the international link you see the int vote. The national vote tab however shows zero, because the count is at zero. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 04:11:40 PM Live counting:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HDa9paUzSpM International vote is now up Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 04:14:42 PM That link is behind the main page - here:
http://www.tvn.cl/ I love how I understand just basic Spanish, yet I can still that the YouTube live comments on that video are Trash :P Also: is there any reason for which counts the stations show - both this time and during the first round? Are they traditionally good bellwethers, or are they just where the actions is at the time? Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 04:20:09 PM That link is behind the main page - here: http://www.tvn.cl/ I love how I understand just basic Spanish, yet I can still that the YouTube live comments on that video are Trash :P Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 04:23:11 PM We Have Chilean votes!
SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE 146 51,41% ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ 138 48,59% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on December 17, 2017, 04:29:40 PM Early projection from Radio Bio Bio has Piñera in the lead, still a long way to go.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 04:39:39 PM Total Votes: from 693 counts
SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE 42.966 50,86% ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ 41.516 49,14% Votes from Chile: 612 Counts SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE 40.345 53,38% ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ 35.233 46,62% If I can recall from the first round, the margins stayed the mainly the same throughout the count. if this holds true - Piñera wins. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on December 17, 2017, 04:41:34 PM Current Radio Bio Bio projection:
Piñera: 54,70% Guillier: 45,30% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 04:43:54 PM Current Radio Bio Bio projection: Piñera: 54,70% Guillier: 45,30% That isn't even close. If this ends up being the margin, how much did Left turnout drop? Perhaps the NM-BF split truly did put off BF voters from Guillier... Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on December 17, 2017, 04:46:26 PM Current Radio Bio Bio projection: Piñera: 54,70% Guillier: 45,30% That isn't even close. If this ends up being the margin, how much did Left turnout drop? Perhaps the NM-BF split truly did put off BF voters from Guillier... It would have dropped by a LOT if that was the result, but then again, Piñera probably drew new voters as well, or voters who didn't vote in the first round to punish him or because they thought he was going to win anyway. Go Piñera! We can win this! Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: kelestian on December 17, 2017, 04:47:02 PM Go go Piñera!
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 04:47:48 PM With over 560K votes counted in Chile Piñera is ahead 54-46 in Chile. Go Piñera ..
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 04:49:58 PM This is painful to watch, specially Piñera doing good in popular communes.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Octowakandi on December 17, 2017, 04:50:29 PM Little surprised by this. I guess you can never overestimate the capability of the left to eat their own.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on December 17, 2017, 04:51:52 PM Seems clear to me those who claimed Bachelet's reforms had turned popular made that call a bit too early...
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 04:55:05 PM Guillier is doing reasonably well in Santiago where if that were the trend it would be neck-to-neck. He has to hope that is a trend and that other results have a Piñera lean to them ..
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Lumine on December 17, 2017, 04:55:43 PM With 25,96% of the vote:
SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE 889.179 54,03% ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ 756.385 45,97% Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 04:56:51 PM Some quick backhand math says the vote might have dropped by 300K between the two rounds - though not all counts have the same number of voters so this is VERY ROUGH.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 04:58:38 PM Even in Santiago it is now Piñera ahead 51.6 vs 48.4.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 05:07:35 PM 47% of counts.
SEBASTIAN PIÑERA ECHENIQUE 1.674.238 54,29% ALEJANDRO GUILLIER ALVAREZ 1.409.547 45,71% This is over. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 05:13:06 PM Tvn just showed of the vote regionally - Piñera is largely doing better then one would expect in the north. The map seems to largely map the traditional polarization - extreme south and north-central for Left, Far north and South for Right - Except Piñera is barely winning the traditional Left-wing Mining states in the north.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Simfan34 on December 17, 2017, 05:14:23 PM Finally, a good election.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: seb_pard on December 17, 2017, 05:14:52 PM New Majority RIP 2013-2017
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 05:17:42 PM TVN just called for Piñera.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Kamala on December 17, 2017, 05:21:48 PM Would Sanchez have done better?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Octowakandi on December 17, 2017, 05:22:03 PM New Majority RIP 2013-2017 Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 05:57:46 PM Looks like the number of voters increased from the first round. So it does not seems like marginal Sánchez not voting that gave Piñera the victory. It seems it is more about defections from Goic first round voters. And even that does not seem to be enough to explain this large Piñera victory. I guess there must have been defections from Sánchez and even perhaps Enríquez-Ominami first round voters, as hard it is to believe plus some marginal non-voters in the first round coming out to stop Guillier.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Runoff: Piñera v. Guillier) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 06:04:49 PM Looks like the number of voters increased from the first round. So it does not seems like marginal Sánchez not voting that gave Piñera the victory. It seems it is more about defections from Goic first round voters. And even that does not seem to be enough to explain this large Piñera victory. I guess there must have been defections from Sánchez and even perhaps Enríquez-Ominami first round voters, as hard it is to believe plus some marginal non-voters in the first round coming out to stop Guillier. Yeah, my backhand calculations were way off - not all counts created equal and all that. There are only two explanations. One you offered above, that the centrists and some marginal leftists decided cast Piñera votes. This is obviously part of the story. However, I think the main reason was that in the first round Piñera didn't really mobilize his base effectively. Right-wing voters didn't turn up in the numbers they needed in the first round since it was obvious Piñera was going to win. When the results came in, and the election became close, this base became scared - and they turned out. So there was probably a few left-wing voters dropping off, however their votes are hidden because Piñera mobilized the right and outpreformed his first round turnout. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: Octowakandi on December 17, 2017, 06:07:39 PM After the elections earlier in the year in Ecuador where the left consolidated around their candidate to stop the right in the second round, I just expected that would be the norm and would occur again. It's probably unfair though to compare the outgoing administration of Correa who was reasonably popular to Bachelet who was anything but.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on December 17, 2017, 06:17:27 PM So what is Pinera likely to do in office?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: MASHED POTATOES. VOTE! on December 17, 2017, 06:32:15 PM This is so Alabama special Senate election
Pinera is doomed (a little later) PINERA LANDSLIDE! Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 06:33:50 PM This is so Alabama special Senate election Pinera is doomed (a little later) PINERA LANDSLIDE! Nah, it was more like Guilliar started with the better hand, so people expected him to do better. The moment votes came in from Chile, everyone knew it was over. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: jaichind on December 17, 2017, 06:45:33 PM It seems Piñera got almost 850K more votes than Piñera+Kast got in the first round. Some of it are marginal Center-Right voters but a lot of it must be from defections of the Center and Center-Left candidates from the first round.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: Mike88 on December 17, 2017, 06:58:59 PM Didn't knew, that in Chile, the defeated candidate goes to the winning candidate HQ to congratulate him/her. Nice tradition. :)
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: Antonio the Sixth on December 17, 2017, 07:32:22 PM Well crap.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: Sestak on December 17, 2017, 08:20:50 PM So...Bachelet 2021? And then Piñera 2025?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: ericpolitico on December 17, 2017, 08:35:49 PM Bachelet a Piñera - Piñera Presidente. Chile Presidential Politics of the Eternal Return: Bachelet to Piñera to Bachelet to Piñera. Unique and Cute! LOL.
Why these 2 people keep rotating the presidency? lol Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: Lumine on December 17, 2017, 09:29:30 PM Would Sanchez have done better? ^ I'd be interested in an answer to this. Unsure. On one hand, Sanchez would have energized her base a hell of a lot more, and probably would have brought new voters on board as well as the "voice of change", so to speak. On the other hand, there's the question of just how many of the more moderate Guillier voters would have also gone to her or would have found the Frente Amplio too left-wing for their taste (I'm talking particularly about the less ideological voters). I have a hunch she might have had a decent shot, but I truly can't say. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: Lumine on December 17, 2017, 09:30:39 PM Didn't knew, that in Chile, the defeated candidate goes to the winning candidate HQ to congratulate him/her. Nice tradition. :) Easily one of the better parts of our system, candidates can get very harsh on their tone before the election, but they make an effort to cool things down on the very same election night and make gestures like that. Even our own politicians recognize that's a strong point to keep. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: Lumine on December 17, 2017, 09:33:44 PM Sebastian Piñera becomes the third most voted candidate in Chilean history, only surpassed by Eduardo Frei Ruiz Tagle in 1993 and Patricio Aylwin in 1989. This is all the more impressive because Piñera achieved this result with voluntary vote, and he already has more votes than Bachelet 2013.
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%) Post by: BrazilianConservative on December 17, 2017, 09:48:25 PM Another loss for the left in Latin America. Bodes well for Brazil, which is more conservative than Chile.
Right wing candidates (including the ones who pretend to be) could break 60%. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 17, 2017, 10:40:39 PM Another loss for the left in Latin America. Bodes well for Brazil, which is more conservative than Chile. Right wing candidates (including the ones who pretend to be) could break 60%. I know this is very cliche, however it shouldn't be ignored that the fact that the pink tide is regressing definitely played a role here. The failure of Venezuela after Chavez's departure and the state's turn to authoritarianism has provided a spectre that looms across the continent. In this election, and many others that saw the right assume governmental control, the ads warn of their county 'becoming another Venezuela.' Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 - December 17th (Piñera landslide!) Post by: wxtransit on December 17, 2017, 11:40:45 PM So...Bachelet 2021? And then Piñera 2025? Also, Bachelet 2029 and Piñera 2034. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%) Post by: kelestian on December 18, 2017, 05:31:45 AM What's Piñera's stance on abortions?
Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%) Post by: Oryxslayer on December 19, 2017, 07:44:28 AM () Election map - I highly recommend opening it in a new tab if you want to see all the details. The takeaway I think is the decline of the Left vote in their traditional Northern Strongholds, and the growth of said Left Vote in the Santiago Metro Area. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%) Post by: Hydera on December 19, 2017, 10:33:30 AM () Election map - I highly recommend opening it in a new tab if you want to see all the details. The takeaway I think is the decline of the Left vote in their traditional Northern Strongholds, and the growth of said Left Vote in the Santiago Metro Area. Idk much about chilean politics but would i be wrong to assume that the reason they switched to Piñera is because of the slowing chinese economy making products like chilean copper not being brought which is leading to economic problems there. Title: Re: Chilean Presidential Election 2017 (Piñera landslide, defeats Guillier with 54%) Post by: seb_pard on December 19, 2017, 09:06:57 PM I'm gonna miss Chilezuela :(
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