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Title: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: The Other Castro on October 24, 2016, 12:01:54 PM Clinton - 47%
Trump - 46% Johnson - 4% https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NC_102416/ Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on October 24, 2016, 12:04:26 PM wtf?
Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Speed of Sound on October 24, 2016, 12:05:19 PM It was 44/42/7 in late August, btw.
White, and especially male numbers are staying very strong for Trump, unsurprisingly. I assume they were renewed in their desire to elect him after learning he's a serial sexual assaulter. Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: The Other Castro on October 24, 2016, 12:06:06 PM They also have McCrory up 1 and Burr up 6, so it seems like a bit of an R friendly sample.
Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Figueira on October 24, 2016, 12:06:54 PM They also have McCrory up 1 and Burr up 6, so it seems like a bit of an R friendly sample. Yep. Hopefully this is an outlier rather than the one poll that ends up getting it right. Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Speed of Sound on October 24, 2016, 12:08:33 PM Here are how they report the demos:
DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported 33% Republican 37% Independent 30% Democrat 46% Male 54% Female 23% 18-34 24% 35-49 30% 50-64 23% 65+ 72% White 21% Black 2% Hispanic 5% Other Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Gass3268 on October 24, 2016, 12:09:15 PM Clinton hasn't been behind in a non-junky 50-state poll since the first debate and her current average is 2.3 on RCP. You are going to have some polls at a 1% lead with that average.
Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 24, 2016, 12:09:54 PM Still in the lead! TREMENDOUS!!!
Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: BoAtlantis on October 24, 2016, 12:12:46 PM Still, a lead is a lead. I'll take it.
Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 24, 2016, 12:13:14 PM Here are how they report the demos: DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported 33% Republican 37% Independent 30% Democrat 46% Male 54% Female 23% 18-34 24% 35-49 30% 50-64 23% 65+ 72% White 21% Black 2% Hispanic 5% Other Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: rafta_rafta on October 24, 2016, 12:13:33 PM crap... I expected a +3 or at least a +2. This one shows McCrory in the lead but the PPP sample showed Cooper.
i trust Monmouth more than I do PPP though Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: john cage bubblegum on October 24, 2016, 12:13:45 PM Monmouth is a good pollster, but they do use somewhat small sample sizes, so a single poll can be prone to MoE noise.
I'm not gonna unskew, but this sample is R+3, and I would be shocked if that actually happened. The fact that Clinton is up 1 in such a R friendly sample actually seems like good news for Clinton. Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: The Other Castro on October 24, 2016, 12:14:05 PM Here are how they report the demos: DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported 33% Republican 37% Independent 30% Democrat 46% Male 54% Female 23% 18-34 24% 35-49 30% 50-64 23% 65+ 72% White 21% Black 2% Hispanic 5% Other Big ID clash with PPP, who has it as 43% Dem, 34% GOP, 23% Indy/Other Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: dspNY on October 24, 2016, 12:14:36 PM This is the 15th consecutive NC poll with a Clinton lead
Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Dr. Arch on October 24, 2016, 12:15:56 PM A lead is a lead is a lead.
Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: TC 25 on October 24, 2016, 12:23:22 PM A lead is a lead, but a shaky, shaky one at that.
Hillary starting to hear footsteps. Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Gass3268 on October 24, 2016, 12:23:48 PM Here are how they report the demos: DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported 33% Republican 37% Independent 30% Democrat 46% Male 54% Female 23% 18-34 24% 35-49 30% 50-64 23% 65+ 72% White 21% Black 2% Hispanic 5% Other Big ID clash with PPP, who has it as 43% Dem, 34% GOP, 23% Indy/Other What this is telling me is that with even with a very Republican sample, Clinton is a head. Turnout will obviously be critical in North Carolina. Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 24, 2016, 12:24:31 PM Quote The poll also noted a small down-ballot turnout effect that could cut into Republican leads. When those who are considered to be least probable to turn out on November 8th are removed from the pool of likely voters, the presidential race margin remains about the same, but the race for U.S. Senate and governor shifts about 3 to 4 points toward the Democrats. “The least probable voters include Trump supporterswho feel the prospect of victory is slipping away and Republicans who are reluctantly voting for Clinton at the top of the ticket. If both types of voters stay away from the polls on Election Day, it could have a negative impact on GOP candidates down the ballot,” said Murray Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: BlueSwan on October 24, 2016, 12:25:54 PM Still, a lead is a lead. I'll take it. Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 24, 2016, 12:30:09 PM Here are how they report the demos: DEMOGRAPHICS (weighted) Self-Reported 33% Republican 37% Independent 30% Democrat 46% Male 54% Female 23% 18-34 24% 35-49 30% 50-64 23% 65+ 72% White 21% Black 2% Hispanic 5% Other Big ID clash with PPP, who has it as 43% Dem, 34% GOP, 23% Indy/Other What this is telling me is that with even with a very Republican sample, Clinton is a head. Turnout will obviously be critical in North Carolina. IDK, seems like PPP included D/R leaners, while Monmouth didn't. PPP has 10% less INDs. But, Monmouth has big MOE. Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 24, 2016, 01:04:58 PM Still, a lead is a lead. I'll take it. Title: NC: Monmouth University: Close Election Contest in North Carolina Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 24, 2016, 01:23:40 PM New Poll: North Carolina President by Monmouth University on 2016-10-23 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720161023102)
Summary: D: 47%, R: 46%, U: 2% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_NC_102416/) Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Maxwell on October 24, 2016, 01:38:32 PM They also have McCrory up 1 and Burr up 6, so it seems like a bit of an R friendly sample. lol k Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: Gass3268 on October 24, 2016, 01:40:14 PM They also have McCrory up 1 and Burr up 6, so it seems like a bit of an R friendly sample. lol k Yeah, this tells me that even great Republican turnout, Clinton will still win NC. Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: pppolitics on October 24, 2016, 02:29:10 PM They also have McCrory up 1 and Burr up 6, so it seems like a bit of an R friendly sample. lol k Yeah, this tells me that even great Republican turnout, Clinton will still win NC. In North Carolina, Democrats are already ahead of where they were in 2008 and 2012 in terms of early voting. Of cause, things can change in the days ahead, but the early voting numbers make me cautiously optimistic. Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: dspNY on October 24, 2016, 03:58:39 PM Actually if you count the Times Picayune polls it is the 16th straight NC poll with Clinton ahead
Title: Re: NC-Monmouth: Clinton +1 Post by: StatesPoll on October 24, 2016, 05:02:01 PM MonMinus says H +1% -> Reality TRUMP +3~4% |