Talk Elections

Clinton 49%
Trump 44%
Johnson 3%
Stein 2%

49% in the four way? very solid!

Like to see it stronger, but that about seals it for me.

Solid

+6 in the 2 way.

51% Clinton  
45% Trump

loljohnson

It's getting closer.

It's CNN so I'll take it. The early vote looks better than Clinton +5 even when taking into account Democratic strength in the early vote

No it's not. This is exactly the same margin in their four way as it was 3 weeks ago.

lmao CNN shilling so hard for a close race, and the best they can do is still Trump down 5!

Lol it's literally not.

If this is the best CNN could do with whatever absurd LV screen they had, I'm satisfied.

Let's see if the cross tabs still low ball Clinton's strength with AA's and Hispanics

RIP Gary.

Seems like we're stabilizing into a 2008-ish national margin, 7-8 points or so.  I'd like to see Trump stomped by more, but a month ago, I'd be delighted with this.

Trump is winning independents by 4. If that's true, why is the margin so low?

It's the same margin as their last poll and Clinton is almost to 50.

both Clinton numbers should be very scary for Donald - close to 50 and over 50. In both scenarios undecideds couldn't make the difference for Donald even if every single undecided went in his direction (an incredibly unlikely scenario for a candidate with 60%+ unfavorables).

Looks at this beautiful 51.

One more poll that shows Johnson and Stein's numbers crashing. Just like everyone predicted.

Last poll, begin october, also gave Clinton +5

CNN has a hard pro-Trump bias in their polls because of Jeff Zucker, who is Trump's BFF from the Apprentice. A Clinton +5 from the network that hired Corey Lewandowski is a great result for her

And people laughed at me months ago when I said Johnson wouldn't crack 5%.

Really, America, not quite ready to wrap it up 100%? You still want to leave a slight chance of electing a fascist? Can't maybe move it toward something more like an 8 or 9 point margin?

That's just dandy.

Full results: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/10/24/cnn.poll.pdf

Hillary's net favorables are only -6. Nice!

people don't seem to know how this third party thing works even though we go through it every election.

hilarious - Clinton does better with the Likely Voter screen!

Johnson is down 4. Stein is unchanged.

Clinton and Trump are both up 2.

The last CNN four way poll was Clinton 47, Trump 42 so she is actually in a better position now despite being up by the same 5 points because she is almost at 50

Mathematics is hard.

45% of America would vote for Satan (R) over Jesus (D). The fantasies of a historic Democratic landslide are just that.

Did the best job in the debates? 61% Clinton, 29% Trump (ouch)
Cares about people like you? 49% Clinton, 44% Trump

Trump only leads whites by 13.

I like this part the most.

Q3. (ASKED OF CLINTON SUPPORTERS) Would that be more a vote to express support
for Hillary Clinton or more to express opposition to Donald Trump?
                         Oct. 20-23       Sept 28-Oct 2
Support for Clinton        66%       60%
Opposition to Trump      33%        39%

Q3a. (ASKED OF TRUMP SUPPORTERS) Would that be more a vote to express support
for Donald Trump or more to express opposition to Hillary Clinton?
                              Oct. 20-23   Sept 28-Oct 2
Support for Trump          60%        59%
Opposition to Clinton       38%        40%

Trump supporters don't show too much change.

Clinton supporters are voting more to support her now rather than grudgingly voting against Trump.

Also remember, Obama's lead in 2008 during the final week in October averaged between 5 and 6 points. Polling probably won't settle on a margin until the final week.

Dems
Clinton 89%
Trump 6%
Stein 1%
Johnson 0%

GOP
Trump 89%
Clinton 6%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 43%
Clinton 41%
Johnson 8%
Stein 3%

Midwest: Clinton +7
Northeast: Clinton +20
South: Trump +8
West: Clinton +11

urban: Clinton +38
suburban: Trump +1
rural: Trump +25

fav/unfav %:
Clinton 46/52% for -6%
Trump 41/57% for -16%

This is still low balling her support with non-whites and overestimating Trump's. Right now it is 72/20. I'd be shocked if Hillary is under 80 with non whites and Trump above 20.

Can someone explain why any Republican would support Stein?

They support Putin but don't support molesting women.

Johnson has definitely declined from his peak, but his peak was something like 9% in the polling averages, and the polling averages now have him at about 6%.  So sure, that's a decline, but not the kind of "crash" that some were predicting six months ago when some were saying "Oh, his ceiling is going to be something like 2%."

Most polls still have him north of 5, yet when we get polls like this that have him below 5, everyone starts jumping on it like "See, I told you Johnson was going to crash and burn!"  In the threads on polls that still have him in high single digits, there isn't a corresponding chorus of "I guess Johnson isn't going to drop like people were saying."

Full stats

86% of voters are not changing their minds
66% of Clinton voters are voting for Clinton, not against the opponent
60% of Trump voters are voting for Trump, not against the opponent
Clinton favorables: 46/52 (-6)
Bill Clinton favorables: 49/48 (+1)
Trump favorables: 41/57 (-16)
Melania favorables: 46/35 (+11)
Economy: 51/47 Trump
Terrorism: 50/48 Clinton
Immigration: 50/47 Clinton
Foreign policy: 59/38 Clinton
SCOTUS: 51/46 Clinton
Decisive leader: 48/46 Clinton
Temperament: 61/32 Clinton
CiC responsibility: 55/40 Clinton
Honesty: 43/42 Trump
A person you admire: 42/29 Clinton
Vision for the future: 49/42 Clinton
Won the debates: 61/29 Clinton
Will stand up for you: 49/44 Clinton
The emails: 64/35 think it is an issue
Trump sexual assault: 60/36 think it is an issue

Party ID: 31D/26R/43I (D+5)

Men: Trump +3
Women: Clinton +13
White: Trump +13
Nonwhite: Clinton +52
White college: Clinton +11
White non-college: Trump +29

Northeast: Clinton +20
Midwest: Clinton +7
South: Trump +8
West: Clinton +11

Third parties typically decline even more on election day itself than in the polling leading up to election day. Nader polled at 2.3% in 2008 and he got 0.6%. Barr polled at 1.5% and got 0.4%.

No doubt Johnson and Stein will improve on their 2012 performances, but at this point I'd be shocked if the former cracked 3% and the latter 1%.

lol

you clinton hacks are incredible

cnn is so pro clinton that anyone who watches like 5min realizes it, but not now they are going to manufacture a poll because of some random guy who is maybe trump's friend.

SAD!

no millenial-results cause the sample has been too small....

clinton + 18 under 45 years....trump + 1 between 45 and 65...and...clinton +1 over 65 years....

all those GREAT YUGE numbers somehow get to hillary +5. voodoo pollonomics.

instead of arguing about friendships or not, i would say that CNN isn't the poll gold standard AND the would do anything for ratings. ^^

CNN poll have shown a pro-Trump bias in the past. 538 has them with an ever-so-slight Rep bias based on 2014, but this year, they've shown Trump up 2 in September and similar results throughout the race. Their LV screen is to blame for this, I think, but it's a datum nonetheless.

When someone gets attacked by both sides, it's usually a sign that they're somewhere in the middle. ;)  Having said that, I highly doubt CNN or any reputable pollster would manufacture results to fit a narrative.  (Less reputable pollsters are a different story.)  CNN seems to have had a slight R lean this cycle, likely due to their likely voter screen, but it's much less than some other pollsters.

EDIT: 538 has CNN listed as R+0.1.

Even if it has a Trump lean and we will know that after election, not now, it is NOT because of some random guy who is working on a poll.

Clinton can win the popular vote by 3, even 4 and lose the election if Trump pulls out narrow wins in OH, FL, NC and PA

No, it would have to probably within a percentage point.

Trump can also win even while losing all those states if he wins California! So many paths to victory!

Neither of them were actually included in many polls that year.  Should be noted that Perot '92, Perot '96, and Nader '00 all did about as well on election day as they were polling a few weeks before the election.  I guess what I'd say is that polls are really bad at distinguishing between a 3rd party candidate whose true support is 0.5% and a 3rd party candidate whose true support is 5%.  It's not clear to me that we can figure out which of those categories Johnson is in in advance of the election.

yeah, but...

even in a mystical scenario he would only win 2 of those.

all 4 don't fit.

More people think Clinton's e-mails are an issue than Donald Trump sexually assaulting women.

Once again, polling proves that the respect I once held for America was not well deserved.

How can anyone say this is getting closer? Trump is not going to even come close to winning. This is Todd Akin all over again.

According to PPP, among early voters in North Carolina Johnson got so few votes that his number rounded down to 0. His and Stein's support is extremely soft, I wouldn't be surprised if most of the people who say that support them don't even bother to vote at all.

Clinton winning by 5 with those demographics could result in her getting fewer EVs than Obama 2012 even with a bigger PV margin. Using the 538 thingie it looks like she would pick up NC but lose IA, OH and ME2, which isn't out of the question when you look at state polling.

Obviously a lot of that comes down to the non-college white vs college white vs non-white turnouts.

Not to defend Americans here, but are you really surprised? One was spammed about by the media for a year and a half, where they essentially judged her as guilty of treason in the court of public opinion. One was covered for a few weeks and has been officially false equivalenced to be "just as bad" as lame Wikileaks emails.

generallly a +5 at this point...meaning the same result..is even more important than a month earlier.

generally...we need to see the good hillary pollsters again to even understand if the trendline changes.

Do we have any evidence that "early vote polling" is predictive of anything?  I am skeptical.  We really don't know how people who vote early might compare to those who vote on election day, or how polling of self-identified early voters stacks up against final results.

Yes. Virtually impossible to win PA when trailing by 3-4 nationally as the GOP candidate

It's certainly indicative of enthusiasm, or in this case the lack thereof, of Johnson voters.

Clinton + 4-6% is how the race stands with 15 days to go.

It's likely she will win, but it's not over yet folks.

You are dismissing multiple polls that have her in the high single digits are low double digits that vastly outweigh those that have her in the mid single digits. The average right now with live caller polls is around 8%.

Atl./PRRI: C+15
ABC: C+12
Mon: C+12
NBCWSJ: C+10
CBS: C+9
Selzer C+9
GWU C+8
Fox C+7
Q C+7
Centre C+5
CNN C+5
IBD TIE

AVERAGE: 8.25%

Well to be fair we do have a very limited amount of data that some counties in California report that break down numbers by absentee/VbM and same day in person.

I don't know how many other parts of the country even count or break down numbers in that manner, but there were some interesting data points looking at some of these counties in California during the 2016 Primaries.

But yeah.... not sure how much we can really discern about early voting polling in general.

Lol at Dems who agree with Trump that polls are rigged ;D



With that said, when your best poll shows you down by 5%, you're really in trouble.

LOL, when you look at the rest of the data that's out there you can basically tell whatever story you want about Johnson. You can look at this poll and say he's collapsing, you can look at ABC which has had him at 5% for the last month+ (he's staying constant), and you can look at the Times-Picayune State Polls, which show him at 6% in Florida, 8% in North Carolina, 8% in Georgia, and 9% in Virginia, which strongly suggests he's succeeding 5% nationally.

But of course Atlas goes with the poll that shows their savior hitting 50%.

...and you are dismissing some polls that see the race as pure toss-up like L.A Times poll and Rasmussen. Nate Silver also has the race at HRC +5.2% at the moment. 4-6% is the current stand.

Of course, there is a lack of enthusiasm. 90% vote for Johnson/Stein, because they dislike Trump/Clinton, not because they like Johnson/Stein...

Well, yeah, a lot of Johnson voters are probably people who cast a vote in the major party primaries for someone other than the winners. (Only 14% of eligible voters actually cast a primary ballot for Clinton or Trump) Early Voters fall into two categories: 1) enthusiastic supporters, or 2) people who can't get to the polls on election day. If you're just kind of "meh" about your candidate, why check the box earlier than you have to? Granted something like Obama did in 2012 (casting his absentee-ballot in person with reporters present) increases the # of early voters, but my point still stands.

The LA Times poll is trash, and Rasmussen state polls completely contradict their national polling.

LA Times and Rasmussen aren't live caller polls, Neither are the internet polls like YouGov or Google, or robo callers like PPP. Live callers have the best reputation.

The RCP average is Clinton +5, and I think Trump will still close the gap a bit if the media's attention goes back to HRC for a few days.

Oh, yes, telling your cute success story. Funny, for every late decider Trump pulls in, he appears to be losing another to Clinton. I moved NC toward Trump and GA toward Clinton today in my ratings.

RCP cherrypicks the most favorable R polls for their average, like the completely discredited LA Times tracking. Pollster has both her 2-way average at 7+.
There are no more big events for Trump to change the trajectory of the race and voting has been underway for three weeks.

In 2-way RV the race very almost perfectly stable since October..... 2015 :o :o :o WTF. Americans ARE retards [or CNN:s pollster]
2-way:

4-way:

This race is over.

Just a tinge low, but I would say the average right now is about +7.

PS: 538 has adjusted this poll in their model(s) from a Clinton +5 to a Clinton +6.

the problem for Trump is that CNN's numbers show that Clinton not only has a 5 to 6 point lead, which in Presidential elections is damn near insurmountable this far out, but that even if he wins EVERY SINGLE UNDECIDED VOTER he loses. She's at 51% in the two way, the election is over because 46+3 is only 49%. She's at 49% in the four way with 5% going to third paries - 44+2 is only 46%.

Besides enthusiasm has drained from his camp, Likely Voters are actually more in Clinton's campaign than in Trump's, her favorables are way way stronger, in almost every single data point she's won.

Do you still think so ? :)

FU. I thought, it was a new poll from CNN and become a really saaad Trumpista for a while :D

For what it's worth, I still think it's over. I'll think otherwise when there's a reason to believe he's seriously challenging a 272 firewall state. I don't see any such indications right now. If we see them, I'll change my race outlook.