Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: HillOfANight on October 25, 2016, 02:28:52 pm



Title: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: HillOfANight on October 25, 2016, 02:28:52 pm
http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1051/Dcor_Oct%20National_EAlert_10.25.2016_for%20release.pdf
https://twitter.com/DemCorps/status/790998887095873536

(
Img
)

Their final poll.

Clinton 50
Trump 38
Johnson 5
Stein 2

Clinton 53
Trump 41

Four-way Vote (Clinton Trump)
Independents 36 37
Seniors 46 48
Men 43 43
White College Men 41 42
White Non-College Men 31 57

Women 56 33
Unmarried Women 59 31
White College Women 56 30
Millennials 59 20
Suburban 54 36


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: heatcharger on October 25, 2016, 02:31:19 pm
This is basically an internal, but it's not too far off from reality.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: IceSpear on October 25, 2016, 02:33:05 pm
Let me guess, RCP won't include this even after including like 10 Republican polls today.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on October 25, 2016, 02:34:08 pm
This is basically an internal, but it's not too far off from reality.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Arch on October 25, 2016, 02:35:27 pm
Of course, and people are still debating whether Trump has a chance less than 2 weeks away.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Ebsy on October 25, 2016, 02:36:14 pm
THANK YOU!


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 25, 2016, 02:36:26 pm
Blazing

(
Img
)

If you cherry-pick and cut it down to last two elections only, they were dead on in 2008 and 2012.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 25, 2016, 02:41:24 pm
What was their final 2012 poll?


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Ronnie on October 25, 2016, 02:46:22 pm
I think it's time we stop brushing off the idea that Hillary might actually win nationwide by double digits.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: OneJ on October 25, 2016, 02:47:48 pm
I think it's time we stop brushing off the idea that Hillary might actually win nationwide by double digits.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 25, 2016, 02:48:01 pm
What was their final 2012 poll?


Obama 49   
Romney 45

Nov 1 – Nov 4, 2012


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 25, 2016, 02:49:31 pm
What was their final 2012 poll?


Obama 49   
Romney 45

Nov 1 – Nov 4, 2012
Wowee!


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Castro on October 25, 2016, 02:50:53 pm
Matches the ABC/WashPost 2-way and 4-way numbers exactly.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 25, 2016, 02:52:01 pm
Great result from a good firm but I don't know why they wouldn't wait another week before doing their final poll.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Ebsy on October 25, 2016, 02:55:11 pm
Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 25, 2016, 02:55:14 pm
Let me guess, RCP won't include this even after including like 10 Republican polls today.

Very possible.

RCP stopped including this pollster in September 2012 while HuffPo included the October and November one.

I usually give RCP a break but their subtle tactics like this is the reason why they started losing credibility.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Castro on October 25, 2016, 02:57:44 pm
Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: BundouYMB on October 25, 2016, 03:16:07 pm
Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: elcorazon on October 25, 2016, 03:24:35 pm
Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 25, 2016, 03:32:29 pm
Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)

Yes, but one consequence of gerrymandering is that in a number of states, it has concentrated Democrats in a few districts and spread the Republicans more evenly among a larger number of districts.  This has created more R-leaning districts; but the flip side is that they're not R by very much (R+2, R+3, R+4, etc.)  A large pro-D wave could exceed these levels and potentially flip quite a few of those seats.  But what may save the R majority is a D failure to recruit good candidates in some of these districts.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 25, 2016, 03:37:03 pm
Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)

If you do a uniform swing from the 2014 House results, a 9% national margin of victory for the Dems is (barely) enough to flip control of the House.  Actually, 7% gets you 1 seat short, but then there's a big gap for the final seat needed to flip control.

Of course, the swing won't be uniform.  But I'd say that number offers a rough idea of what would be necessary.  Anything between ~7 and 10%, and control of the House could go either way.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Torie on October 25, 2016, 03:40:09 pm
Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Uh, Democrats would easily retake the House if they won the PV by 9 points (that remains quite unlikely though.) The House isn't THAT gerrymandered.
I'm not sure about that. Dems are so concentrated in cities that they win practically uncontested in a lot of areas and are losing in so many rural areas or exurbs that they have a hard time keeping even (plus there's gerrymandering)

If you do a uniform swing from the 2014 House results, a 9% national margin of victory for the Dems is (barely) enough to flip control of the House.  Actually, 7% gets you 1 seat short, but then there's a big gap for the final seat needed to flip control.

Of course, the swing won't be uniform.  But I'd say that number offers a rough idea of what would be necessary.


On top of that, some of the more marginal Pub seats have talented Pub incumbents. That is worth a few points off the top. Absent such incumbents, most of those marginals would go to the Dems this time.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Virginiá on October 25, 2016, 04:21:28 pm
Also, buried in the polling report is a discussion about a "simulated" 9 point lead for Democrats in the congressional ballot. Anyone have any thoughts on this?

I'd be pretty cautious on that, though big if true and probably enough to make the House very very close.

Ironically the Generic Ballot question in this Democracy Corps poll is R+1. This '9 pt simulation' is misunderstood - it's not a lead.

http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/gqr-d-democracy-corps-26432

That kind of generic ballot number goes against basically every other poll by a good bit and with a +12pt win in an era of significantly polarized politics and virtually non-existent ticket splitting, I think that generic result is impossible in such a large WH PV win. Even if more people do split tickets, it wouldn't come close to that with such a large Clinton win.

http://www.democracycorps.com/attachments/article/1051/Dcor_Oct%20National_FQ_10.24.2016_ealert.pdf


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: #WalkAwayFromDesantis on October 25, 2016, 04:55:14 pm
Let me guess, RCP won't include this even after including like 10 Republican polls today.

It would be smart to stop going to and mentioning RCP, they are a disgusting partisan hack website. I have avoided them all of the 2016 election cycle, and have been going to HuffPost pollster.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 25, 2016, 04:59:27 pm
Is this an internal poll? then we should apply the -5 rule


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 25, 2016, 05:00:53 pm
Is this an internal poll? then we should apply the -5 rule
No, but it is a Democratic leaning pollster.

Still pretty good, though.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: heatcharger on October 25, 2016, 05:04:55 pm
Is this an internal poll? then we should apply the -5 rule

It's as much of an 'Internal poll' as PPP's non-comissioned polls are: not at all.  People just insist D-bias and call it 'might as well be an internal' to have an excuse to discredit it.

I called it an 'internal' not because I believe it's inaccurate like Wulfric, but they probably selectively release their results. Of course, that doesn't matter in this instance as it's their last poll of the cycle.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 25, 2016, 05:07:16 pm
Is this an internal poll? then we should apply the -5 rule

It's as much of an 'Internal poll' as PPP's non-comissioned polls are: not at all.  People just insist D-bias and call it 'might as well be an internal' to have an excuse to discredit it.

Oh I am not discrediting the poll at all. But the internals released/leaked are usually the outliers, hence t he -5 rule


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: IceSpear on October 25, 2016, 05:10:21 pm
Let me guess, RCP won't include this even after including like 10 Republican polls today.

It would be smart to stop going to and mentioning RCP, they are a disgusting partisan hack website. I have avoided them all of the 2016 election cycle, and have been going to HuffPost pollster.

I like that they exclude most of the junk polls like the Google ones, Reuters, etc. By contrast, 538's poll database is essentially unusable due to the fact that they have no standards whatsoever. But yeah, they clearly have their thumb on the scale a bit for the GOP.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 25, 2016, 05:14:14 pm
I like that they exclude most of the junk polls like the Google ones, Reuters, etc. By contrast, 538's poll database is essentially unusable due to the fact that they have no standards whatsoever. But yeah, they clearly have their thumb on the scale a bit for the GOP.

I like 538's approach. They enter every poll but weight the score based on the pollster's past performance. So the newer fly by night polling shops don't impact the score much.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 25, 2016, 06:02:40 pm
Great result from a good firm but I don't know why they wouldn't wait another week before doing their final poll.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 25, 2016, 06:07:46 pm
It's nice to see a couple of double-digit leads popping up from time to time. I doubt that will be the result, but at least this should mean the race probably isn't tightening much.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: krazen1211 on November 29, 2016, 09:42:11 pm
Junk Poll!


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: TC 25 on November 30, 2016, 12:56:13 pm
Polls like this led to the meltdowns and sobbing at the Javits Center and elsewhere on Election Night.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Young Conservative on December 02, 2016, 08:51:27 am
This thread is absolutely hilarious.


Title: Re: Democracy Corps/GQR: Clinton +12
Post by: Fuzzy Bear on December 05, 2016, 07:07:00 am
This thread is absolutely hilarious.

Only for some, young grasshopper, lol.