Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: heatcharger on October 26, 2016, 03:37:59 PM



Title: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: heatcharger on October 26, 2016, 03:37:59 PM
Link (http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/October-2016-AP-GfK-Poll-Topline_Campaign.pdf).

Clinton 48%
Trump 33%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

With leaners:

Clinton 51%
Trump 37%
Johnson 6%
Stein 2%


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 26, 2016, 03:38:33 PM
junk woooooooah, B+ Rep leaning pollster. Pigs have flown


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 26, 2016, 03:38:45 PM
TIGHTENING!


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Person Man on October 26, 2016, 03:39:17 PM


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: JerryArkansas on October 26, 2016, 03:39:34 PM
Trump number way too low.  Junk.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Eraserhead on October 26, 2016, 03:39:39 PM
RCP won't be adding this.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 26, 2016, 03:40:33 PM

Yeah, I'd love to believe this, but no way.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Yank2133 on October 26, 2016, 03:40:35 PM
Yeah....this is an outlier.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 26, 2016, 03:43:24 PM
Hard to believe


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Dutch Conservative on October 26, 2016, 03:43:31 PM
Junk poll. Ridiculous oversampling of democrats: 40/28.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: King on October 26, 2016, 03:45:39 PM
Beautiful poll! Can't wait to see it proven the most accurate on Election Day!


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Yank2133 on October 26, 2016, 03:45:55 PM
Junk poll. Ridiculous oversampling of democrats: 40/28.

People still haven't learned that party ID is fluid.....


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Xing on October 26, 2016, 03:46:52 PM
Way too D friendly, but I really doubt that the race is tightening.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Flake on October 26, 2016, 03:46:59 PM
An outlier but it's not the first poll to show a Clinton lead that large, I mean there's been ~3 Clinton +12 polls in the past two weeks?


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 26, 2016, 03:47:03 PM
INCREDIBLE!!!  Simply fantastic news from our friends at Great F*cK*n polls!  


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on October 26, 2016, 03:47:07 PM


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: windjammer on October 26, 2016, 03:47:15 PM
Lol


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 26, 2016, 03:47:28 PM
Outlier. Trump's floor is 38.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: KingSweden on October 26, 2016, 03:48:11 PM
Uhh...


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Cashew on October 26, 2016, 03:48:35 PM


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Oakvale on October 26, 2016, 03:49:20 PM
BASED AP #TrumpTrain


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Moderate Pennsylvanian on October 26, 2016, 03:50:51 PM
Favorability:
Clinton 44-50 (-6)
Trump 31-63 (-32)


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: F_S_USATN on October 26, 2016, 03:52:14 PM
Garbage but it is funny to see Trump reaching Roosevelt '12 territory.

Of course Teddy won CA and PA


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 26, 2016, 03:52:24 PM
Way too D friendly, but I really doubt that the race is tightening.

Are you suggesting Atlas panic merchants are overreacting?!?!


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Ozymandias on October 26, 2016, 03:53:16 PM
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
Key note on the AP/GfK poll: it's a probability sample conducted online. Yet Trump doesn't overperform.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
To be clearer: AP/GfK is a good test of "hidden Trump" vote theory. But it's now Trump's worst poll


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: DrScholl on October 26, 2016, 03:54:44 PM
That's not close at all.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: dspNY on October 26, 2016, 03:57:48 PM
Well then


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: BundouYMB on October 26, 2016, 04:00:03 PM
One junk tracking poll moves by 1 point: zoMG TRUMP COMEBACK!!!1!

Umpteenth respected pollster has Clinton up double digits: Uh... outlier! Polarization! Halloween Masks!


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Gass3268 on October 26, 2016, 04:00:42 PM
I love it how RCP has an article how the race has tightened even though Hillary essentially jumped 1% up in both their models over the past two days.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 26, 2016, 04:03:04 PM
Probability sample could definitely explain it. THere has been an enthusiasm gap for a while


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: / on October 26, 2016, 04:07:32 PM
Undecideds XD


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Beefalow and the Consumer on October 26, 2016, 04:20:52 PM
Rigged.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 26, 2016, 04:21:24 PM
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
Key note on the AP/GfK poll: it's a probability sample conducted online. Yet Trump doesn't overperform.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
To be clearer: AP/GfK is a good test of "hidden Trump" vote theory. But it's now Trump's worst poll

Interesting.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 26, 2016, 04:21:32 PM
Junk.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Edu on October 26, 2016, 04:32:46 PM
But the panicky Beet clones around here told me that Trump was going to pull ahead in national polls by the middle of the week!


()


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: john cage bubblegum on October 26, 2016, 04:33:10 PM
Well, I'll give AP/GfK this - they're not afraid to go out on a limb.  They had a significant Republican bias in '08 and '12, and now they're the strongest poll for Clinton.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 26, 2016, 04:36:38 PM
We have a six, nine, and fifteen point Clinton lead based on the three non-tracker polls released today.

RIP Donny Trump


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: NOVA Green on October 26, 2016, 04:37:04 PM
Well, I'll give AP/GfK this - they're not afraid to go out on a limb.  They had a significant Republican bias in '08 and '12, and now they're the strongest poll for Clinton.


Definitely no "poll herding" going on here!

It smells a bit junk, although as others have noted we have seen a few legit pollsters showing Clinton in the low double-digit range, so at this point the consensus of legit polls seems indicate somewhere between a Clinton +6-8 range, with the ones showing her at 10+ probably using a more liberal LV screening model.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 26, 2016, 04:42:47 PM
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
Key note on the AP/GfK poll: it's a probability sample conducted online. Yet Trump doesn't overperform.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
To be clearer: AP/GfK is a good test of "hidden Trump" vote theory. But it's now Trump's worst poll

What does probability sample mean?

But anyways, A- IBD has weird results as well. So average and move on ;)


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: dspNY on October 26, 2016, 04:52:35 PM
Party ID was D+12 so I'm calling it an outlier. However if you adjust it to a D+5 to D+7 sample, Clinton leads by 8 to 10 points which is not an outlier


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Alcon on October 26, 2016, 05:05:49 PM
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
Key note on the AP/GfK poll: it's a probability sample conducted online. Yet Trump doesn't overperform.

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  1m1 minute ago Washington, DC
To be clearer: AP/GfK is a good test of "hidden Trump" vote theory. But it's now Trump's worst poll

What does probability sample mean?

But anyways, A- IBD has weird results as well. So average and move on ;)

http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/sampprob.php

I think Cohn is making that distinction because a lot of people have been (wrongly) talking down "online" polls in general.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 26, 2016, 05:10:14 PM
538 is reporting this in their database with a Clinton +14, not a Clinton +15.
The difference (I think) is that 538 is using "Likely Voters" data, and not the "Total" numbers as posted in the OP (which I believe includes Registered Voters).

Here is the data for the 538 entry:
* GFK Group
* Sample 1,212 Likely Voters
* Oct 20-24

Clinton 51 (leads by +14)
Trump 37
Johnson 6
Stein 2

So it seems that a "trump at 37" is more believable than a "trump at 33."
Here is the link. Look at page 9.
http://ap-gfkpoll.com/main/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/October-2016-AP-GfK-Poll-Topline_Campaign.pdf


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on October 26, 2016, 05:54:16 PM
onwards to 60%!!!


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Maxwell on October 26, 2016, 06:05:38 PM

yes, to Trump's credit, I don't think he's hit Goldwater numbers.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: NOVA Green on October 26, 2016, 06:24:50 PM

yes, to Trump's credit, I don't think he's hit Goldwater numbers.

At the end of the day I believe that Trump will capture over 38.5% of the total Presidential vote (Goldwater), but I did go out on a limb that he would get <42% of the total Presidential vote in the thread on that question post Gropergate, and it should be noted he hasn't been 42% or over in any of the top-weighted 538 polls, with the exception of USC and Gravis that most objective observers view as bunk.

I'm still skeptical that he will win the lion's share of undecided and 3rd Party holdouts, although we will see some swings back and forth between the high '30s and very low '40s, depending upon Republicans that loath Trump as a candidate, but believe that Clinton is potentially a greater evil than their extremely flawed GE candidate.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Maxwell on October 26, 2016, 06:34:41 PM
It's also worth noting that Clinton's topline (51%) isn't really all that different from where other pollsters show her at.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: OneJ on October 26, 2016, 07:21:27 PM
I know a +15 for Hillary can be hard to grasp, but think about it this way.

-Higher than normal Latino turnout (see Arizona and Texas)
-Record breaking lopsided support from Latinos against Trump for Hillary (projected to be between 76.5% to 87.5% for HRC)
-A possibility of record breaking lopsided support from Millennials (keep in mind that Trump is doing very terrible among this group at less than <30%, third partiers either don't vote or will vote for Clinton so it's possible that she will pass 2012 and maybe even 2008)
-Black turnout is still strong unlike what others want to believe
-College educated whites rejecting Trump
-White women propelling toward Clinton
-Early voting shows high turnout period

A double digit lead for HRC on November 8, 2016 is not out of the question.



Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: mark_twain on October 26, 2016, 10:44:09 PM

Excellent poll!


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Mehmentum on October 26, 2016, 10:48:43 PM
I know a +15 for Hillary can be hard to grasp, but think about it this way.

-Higher than normal Latino turnout (see Arizona and Texas)
-Record breaking lopsided support from Latinos against Trump for Hillary (projected to be between 76.5% to 87.5% for HRC)
-A possibility of record breaking lopsided support from Millennials (keep in mind that Trump is doing very terrible among this group at less than <30%, third partiers either don't vote or will vote for Clinton so it's possible that she will pass 2012 and maybe even 2008)
-Black turnout is still strong unlike what others want to believe
-College educated whites rejecting Trump
-White women propelling toward Clinton
-Early voting shows high turnout period

A double digit lead for HRC on November 8, 2016 is not out of the question.


And importantly, a 15 point win relies on Republican turnout cratering, which we're seeing some tentative evidence of.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: pbrower2a on October 26, 2016, 11:14:29 PM
The most recent Presidential election with that sort of gap was in 1956. Eisenhower basically won the states that Obama won in 2012 and everything west of the Mississippi that Obama did not win.

() 

Because the Democrats have not won any election by anything near a 15% margin (closest were Bill Clinton (9% in 1996) and Obama 2008 (7%) we have no idea of what such a blowout would look like. We all know about the LBJ blowout of 1964; go back to FDR and the elections are very different.

I would never predict what states would move most in a Hillary Clinton blowout.   


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Wisconsin+17 on October 27, 2016, 12:17:15 AM
Quote
Because the Democrats have not won any election by anything near a 15% margin (closest were Bill Clinton (9% in 1996) and Obama 2008 (7%) we have no idea of what such a blowout would look like. We all know about the LBJ blowout of 1964; go back to FDR and the elections are very different.

See my prediction. Hillary +15 would be close. 


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Holmes on October 27, 2016, 12:25:17 AM
It's a good point. In modern times, we know what the electoral college would look like in an R+2 victory to a D+8 victory, but if the margin goes all the way to D+15, we'd see some really weird results. Some states that we might otherwise assume to be safe R states would flip. And I do think it has a lot to do with the candidate too - for example, Obama would definitely win Montana and the Dakotas in this scenario, whereas Clinton wouldn't, but she'd very likely win Texas and South Carolina. And the same applies on the opposite side of the spectrum for Republicans too. I don't think it'll happen but I kind of want to see Clinton win by a margin like this just to see a crazy map.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: IceSpear on October 27, 2016, 03:44:34 AM
One junk tracking poll moves by 1 point: zoMG TRUMP COMEBACK!!!1!

Umpteenth respected pollster has Clinton up double digits: Uh... outlier! Polarization! Halloween Masks!

The sad thing is this isn't even a joke, it really is how some people here think.

In an alternate reality where Hillary led in every poll by 50 points, the usual suspects would light their hair on fire over a Gravis poll showing her up 20.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Obama-Biden Democrat on October 27, 2016, 04:33:04 PM
It's a good point. In modern times, we know what the electoral college would look like in an R+2 victory to a D+8 victory, but if the margin goes all the way to D+15, we'd see some really weird results. Some states that we might otherwise assume to be safe R states would flip. And I do think it has a lot to do with the candidate too - for example, Obama would definitely win Montana and the Dakotas in this scenario, whereas Clinton wouldn't, but she'd very likely win Texas and South Carolina. And the same applies on the opposite side of the spectrum for Republicans too. I don't think it'll happen but I kind of want to see Clinton win by a margin like this just to see a crazy map.

If Obama were to win by 15 points, I think he would end up winning NY, CA, IL, MA,WA and other solid Democratic states by North Korea or Soviet like margins. He would still be radioactive in the Upper South and Appalachia. His EV margin wouldn't be impressive as if Hillary were to win by 15 points. Texas would flip this year if Hillary won by 15 points, but Texas was more than 15 points to the right of the nation in 08 and 2012.


Title: Re: AP-GFK National: Clinton +15
Post by: Simfan34 on October 27, 2016, 07:08:46 PM
Now this is my kind of poll!