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Title: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 26, 2016, 04:16:26 PM Now that a significant chunk of the early voting is in, I'd like to devote a thread to poll results of voters who have already voted.
Here are the ones I know of so far: ARIZONA Clinton - 52 Trump - 42 Among 40% of early voters in Monmouth poll: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_AZ_102516/ FLORIDA Clinton - 54 Trump - 41 Among 26% of early voters in FAU poll: http://business.fau.edu/departments/economics/business-economics-polling/bepipolls/index.aspx#.WBEZ1-ArLct NEVADA Clinton - 60 Trump - 35 Among 13% of early voters in NBC/WSJ/Marist poll: Mark Murray @mmurraypolitics 2m2 minutes ago In NV, Clinton leads Trump 60%-35% among those who have *already* voted (13% of likely voters) -- per new NBC/WSJ/Marist poll of NV http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/NVpolls/NV161020/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Nevada%20Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%202016.pdf#page=3 NORTH CAROLINA Clinton - 59 Trump - 36 Among 18% of anticipated electorate (800K/4.425M) based on modeling of NYT/Upshot poll: Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 2m2 minutes ago Washington, DC Clinton leads 59-36 in the North Carolina early vote with more than 800k votes cast. We'll be tracking it daily http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/upshot/north-carolina-early-vote-tracker.html Any others that I'm missing? Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: ElectionsGuy on October 26, 2016, 04:18:00 PM Early voting tends to skew pretty Dem. North Carolina should be concerning to Trump though.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 26, 2016, 04:20:12 PM Early voting tends to skew pretty Dem. North Carolina should be concerning to Trump though. Early in-person viewing skes Dem, but these numbers include Absentee/Mail-in votes, which skews Rep Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 26, 2016, 04:20:53 PM What are the Senate race numbers in NV? I didn't see that info in the poll details. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: windjammer on October 26, 2016, 04:21:42 PM What matters is how it evolved since the last election.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 26, 2016, 09:11:45 PM Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 6m6 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
262 of the 1574 Upshot/Siena respondents in NC have now voted early. [16.6%] Clinton led among them 57-35%. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 26, 2016, 09:19:12 PM in some states, early voting is so popular and important now that you would need to increase your election day game big time to "counter" it.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 27, 2016, 02:07:49 PM From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397
"Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting... Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters... Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots... North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton." Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 27, 2016, 02:25:27 PM From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397 "Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting... Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters... Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots... North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton." Those are all impressive for Clinton, but the one that really shocks me is Iowa. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: dspNY on October 27, 2016, 03:37:41 PM From latest Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397 "Clinton leads by margins of 6 to 34 percentage points among likely voters who already have cast ballots in Georgia, Iowa and North Carolina, which allow early voting... Clinton leads 48 - 42 percent among Georgia early voters... Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots... North Carolina likely voters who cast early ballots go 62 - 34 percent for Clinton." That's the third NC estimate that is HEAVILY Clinton, more heavily than anything Obama pulled in the early vote in his two campaigns Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: dspNY on October 27, 2016, 03:39:55 PM Additionally, to get these types of splits, independents must be breaking very hard for Clinton because these are far ahead of the D/R splits in all three states
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 27, 2016, 03:59:37 PM 10% Third Party in GA among early vote (100-48-42), and 12% Third party in IA among early vote (100-61-27) has to be encouraging for Johnson hitting 5% nationally.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Beefalow and the Consumer on October 27, 2016, 04:03:41 PM In the past day on the betting markets:
NC: Clinton +3.1% FL: Clinton -2.1% NV: Clinton -4.6% AZ: Clinton +2.2%, now favorite IA: Trump -0.7% GA: Trump -1.3% Of course, there's lots of information feeding this market, but I wonder if there is a reaction to this baked in. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 28, 2016, 11:41:33 AM Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 2h2 hours ago Manhattan, NY
Clinton has an 18 point lead in NC early voting with more than 1 million votes cast, according to our estimates Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 12:14:30 PM "Clinton enjoys solid lead in early voting: Reuters/Ipsos poll"
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN12T0J6 "With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project." "Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race" "In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits among early voters. The project’s broader polling suggests the state is deadlocked between the two candidates." "In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In the past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state to a marginal Clinton state, although it is still too close to call, according to the project results." "Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results." Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Hammy on October 29, 2016, 12:19:27 PM Is there anywhere we can compare early voting this year and 2012 between the states? That's probably the best way to make a guess based on early voting.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: dspNY on October 29, 2016, 12:25:18 PM "Clinton enjoys solid lead in early voting: Reuters/Ipsos poll" http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN12T0J6 "With 11 days to go before the U.S. presidential election, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leads Republican Donald Trump by 15 percentage points among early voters surveyed in the past two weeks, according to the Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project." "Clinton’s lead among early voters is similar to the lead enjoyed by President Barack Obama over Republican Mitt Romney at this point of the 2012 race" "In Ohio, Clinton led Trump by double digits among early voters. The project’s broader polling suggests the state is deadlocked between the two candidates." "In Arizona, Clinton also was solidly ahead among early voters. In the past month, Arizona has gradually moved from a solid Trump state to a marginal Clinton state, although it is still too close to call, according to the project results." "Even in Texas, where Trump enjoys a sizable lead, Clinton has a double-digit edge among early voters, according to project results." The national early vote margin according to party ID is 7.5% yet Clinton leads by 15. This is yet another piece of evidence that the current trends still exist: 1. Independents are breaking to Clinton 2. More Republicans are defecting to Clinton than Democrats defecting to Trump Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Rand on October 29, 2016, 12:26:29 PM Great numbers!
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 12:45:32 PM Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots... Those are all impressive for Clinton, but the one that really shocks me is Iowa. Yeah, that greatly surprised me as well, though it's hard to know how meaningful this result is since Quinnipiac didn't report the percentage of early voters they surveyed in each state. Still, this may explain why the Clinton campaign is still contesting Iowa so vigorously... Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Devout Centrist on October 29, 2016, 12:56:36 PM Clinton leads 61 - 27 percent among Iowa likely voters who have cast ballots... Those are all impressive for Clinton, but the one that really shocks me is Iowa. Yeah, that greatly surprised me as well, though it's hard to know how meaningful this result since Quinnipiac didn't report the percentage of early voters in each state. Still, this may explain why the Clinton campaign is still contesting Iowa so vigorously... Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 03:39:46 PM FLORIDA
Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson FL poll, where 257 of 500 LV (51%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7c02a7a6c87348b2a4f30b6d468eb94f.xlsx?dn=ECP_FL_10.27.xlsx): Clinton 57% Trump 42% Johnson 0.4% Stein 0.4% Murphy 58% Rubio 37% Other 4.7% Party ID Democrat 42% Republican 26% Independent 32% Wow, did not expect Rubio to be running behind Trump in the Early vote! Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: swf541 on October 29, 2016, 03:42:04 PM FLORIDA Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson FL poll, where 257 of 500 LV (51.5%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7c02a7a6c87348b2a4f30b6d468eb94f.xlsx?dn=ECP_FL_10.27.xlsx): Clinton 57% Trump 42% Johnson 0.4% Stein 0.4% Murphy 58% Rubio 37% Other 4.7% Party ID Democrat 42% Republican 26% Independent 32% Wow, did not expect Rubio to be running behind Trump in the Early vote! I know its Emerson, but those results are surprising.... Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 29, 2016, 03:44:50 PM FLORIDA Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson FL poll, where 257 of 500 LV (51.5%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_7c02a7a6c87348b2a4f30b6d468eb94f.xlsx?dn=ECP_FL_10.27.xlsx): Clinton 57% Trump 42% Johnson 0.4% Stein 0.4% Murphy 58% Rubio 37% Other 4.7% Party ID Democrat 42% Republican 26% Independent 32% Wow, did not expect Rubio to be running behind Trump in the Early vote! Interesting, but with a subsample of 257 the MoE is over 6%, so take it with a grain of salt. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 03:48:34 PM NORTH CAROLINA
Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson NC poll, where 209 of 650 LV (32%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_85d96154894548168e5f6b011f117e28.xlsx?dn=ECP_NC_10.27.xlsx): Clinton 59% Trump 37% Johnson 0.5% Ross 56% Burr 41% Other 2% Party ID Democrat 48% Republican 22% Independent 29% Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Maxwell on October 29, 2016, 03:51:03 PM gonna go ahead and say that if Emerson is really showing Clinton running behind Murphy, that Emerson is trash.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 04:00:55 PM NEVADA
Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson NV poll, where 237 of 550 LV (43%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_6087a7fc8d43488e91a0600e8ee04883.xlsx?dn=ECP_NV_10.27.xlsx): Clinton 49% Trump 32% Johnson 2.5% Cortez-Mastro 49% Heck 42% Other 1.3% Party ID Democrat 47% Republican 33% Independent 20% Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Speed of Sound on October 29, 2016, 04:02:07 PM gonna go ahead and say that if Emerson is really showing Clinton running behind Murphy, that Emerson is trash. Well, we didn't need this set of polls to know that. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 04:07:09 PM OHIO
Early voter crosstabs from latest Emerson OH poll, where 223 of 800 LV (28%) have already voted early (direct link to spreadsheet: http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_ad398c37ba9347109dc33acfd90bbd48.xlsx?dn=ECP_OH_10.27.xlsx): Clinton 59% Trump 35% Johnson 0% Stein 0% Strickland 49% Portman 39% Other 2.7% Party ID Democrat 48% Republican 25% Independent 27% Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 04:09:08 PM Perhaps the most interesting result from looking at early voters in these four Emerson polls is how hardly any of them have voted for either Johnson or Stein.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: izixs on October 29, 2016, 04:53:53 PM Perhaps the most interesting result from looking at early voters in these four Emerson polls is how hardly any of them have voted for either Johnson or Stein. Perhaps its an issue of motivation. If you're candidate is unlikely to get beyond a distant 3rd even before the polls started moving away from them, there's not a lot of motivation to get to the polls. What more, the media has stopped promoting these two as much as its become more well known how terrible they both are as potential presidents, and thus propping them up looks more like what it sounds like, propping them up. And finally, and most likely, there's the issue of small sample sizes. With margins of error this big, you can miss out on the voters who actually did vote for these two. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Enduro on October 29, 2016, 05:34:21 PM Perhaps the most interesting result from looking at early voters in these four Emerson polls is how hardly any of them have voted for either Johnson or Stein. Perhaps its an issue of motivation. If you're candidate is unlikely to get beyond a distant 3rd even before the polls started moving away from them, there's not a lot of motivation to get to the polls. What more, the media has stopped promoting these two as much as its become more well known how terrible they both are as potential presidents, and thus propping them up looks more like what it sounds like, propping them up. And finally, and most likely, there's the issue of small sample sizes. With margins of error this big, you can miss out on the voters who actually did vote for these two. You probably got it right, I think those numbers will rise when Election Day results come in. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 09:07:40 PM NORTH CAROLINA
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/792545190976323584 Here's the latest NY Times Upshot modeling of NC: ALREADY VOTED (32.4% of vote): Clinton - 54.6%, Trump - 41.6% STILL TO VOTE (67.6% of vote): Clinton - 46.7%, Trump - 43.7% FINAL VOTE: Clinton - 49.3%, Trump - 43.0% Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 30, 2016, 10:26:41 AM FLORIDA and NORTH CAROLINA
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246 "Clinton Leads Big Among Early Voters in Both States The polls - conducted Oct. 25-26 - come as voters are already voting in both states... Among the 36 percent [356/990] of likely voters in Florida who say they've already voted, Clinton is ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent. Among those who haven't voted in the Sunshine State, Trump is up, 51 percent to 42 percent. And Clinton leads by a 61 percent-to-33 percent margin among the 29 percent [295/1018] of North Carolinians who say they've already voted." Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 30, 2016, 10:38:29 AM https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/30/key-battlegrounds-tight-clinton-maintains-eight-po/
10/26-10/29 ARIZONA "In Arizona, 40% have already voted. Among those who have, the race is tied 46% to 46%. By election day in 2012, two-thirds of Arizonans had already voted." NORTH CAROLINA "There, the Battleground Tracker estimates 29% have already voted, and these voters tilt towards Clinton by 51% to 45%. It also seems likely that will grow: while 53% of Trump supporters in North Carolina plan to vote in-person on November 8th, 65% of Clinton voters either have already cast their ballots or plan to do so before November 8th." COLORADO "In Colorado... according to the Battleground Tracker, 28% have already sent their completed ballots back. Of this group, 55% report voting for Clinton, with only 37% for Trump. Here, Johnson receives only 4% support and Stein 1%." Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on October 30, 2016, 11:58:30 AM NORTH CAROLINA
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 4m4 minutes ago Manhattan, NY We now have 492 poll respondents who have voted early in NC. Clinton leads 53 to 38 percent, Johnson at 4. According to an early tweet, they've polled 1574 NC voters, so this works out to 31.2% that have voted early. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 01, 2016, 03:16:26 AM GEORGIA
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=874ea794-a227-44a0-a81b-bdc09dd92fac&utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter Of the 30% (~178) of 593 LV who said they voted early: Trump - 51 Clinton - 45 Johnson - 2 Poll conducted 10/28 SENATE: Isakson (R) - 50 Barksdale (D) - 44 Buckley (L) - 2 Interestingly, for President there's no significant difference between early vote and overall poll results (Trump +7), but that's not the case for the Senate race, which is Isakson +12 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 01, 2016, 09:39:26 PM FLORIDA
https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters Among 311 of 718 (43.3%) of voters known to have voted early, Clinton - 55 Trump - 37 Johnson - 3 Stein - 3 Other - 2 Note this is very close to 54-37 margin NBC/Marist found for early voters last week, and also consistent with 57-42 spread that Emerson found. SENATE early voters: Rubio - 48, Murphy - 47, Other - 4 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 10:51:10 AM USA
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-rated-honest-contest-stays-dead-heat-poll/story?id=43225421 Of 23 percent who say they’ve already voted... "Clinton leads among those who say they’ve already voted, 54-41 percent. " KANSAS http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=0e1d48a5-2698-448f-8f7a-fa2c92996543 17% of 693 RV = 118 voters say they've already voted. "Specifically, Clinton leads Trump 50% to 42% among early voters." Senate: Moran (R) - 48, Wiesner (D) - 44 NORTH CAROLINA http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/03/upshot/early-vote-in-north-carolina-seems-to-confirm-a-clinton-lead.html "Our sample of verified North Carolina early voters supported Clinton by a 51-39 percent margin in NC." (https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/793823086676103169) "In our poll of early voters, Mrs. Clinton has a 49-39 lead among unaffiliated voters who have cast ballots. Mr. Trump has only a 10-point lead, 47 percent to 37 percent, among unaffiliated white voters." Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Dr. Arch on November 02, 2016, 11:08:01 AM ↑ The good news keeps rolling in. Thanks Ozy.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 11:23:39 AM http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html
"And voters who say they have already cast ballots in Arizona and Nevada are about evenly split, with a narrow advantage for Clinton, while she holds a wide margin among those who say they have already voted in Florida. " Will update if/when I find a link to more detailed poll data. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 11:24:23 AM I feel a lot better about the CNN results if that's what they found in early voters in NV.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 11:27:47 AM I feel a lot better about the CNN results if that's what they found in early voters. Those numbers are wrong wrong wrong. The Arizona early voting results are actually consistent with what YouGov found (see upthread), but the Nevada results are much different from both Emerson and NBC/Marist, each of which showed Clinton with big early leads in NV. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 11:30:30 AM I feel a lot better about the CNN results if that's what they found in early voters. Those numbers are wrong wrong wrong. The Arizona early voting results are actually consistent with what YouGov found (see upthread), but the Nevada results are much different from both Emerson and NBC/Marist, each of which showed Clinton with big early leads in NV. Ah, thanks for the correction! My mistake. Yeah the big ugly outlier in that set is clearly NV. I think they have AZ a tiny bit too far right, but not much. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 02:31:29 PM Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399
FLORIDA: Of the 42% (263/626) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 48-42 percent (5.6% MOE). NORTH CAROLINA: Of the 44% (265/602) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 58-36 percent (6.0% MOE). OHIO: Of the 27% (159/589) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 58-33 percent (7.5% MOE). Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 02:50:19 PM WISCONSIN
http://law.marquette.edu/poll/ Of the 16% (201/1255) of respondents who said they already voted: Clinton - 64 Trump - 25 Johnson - 1 Stein - 0 Other - 3 SENATE: Feingold - 58 Johnson - 29 Other - 5 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: HisGrace on November 02, 2016, 04:22:38 PM gonna go ahead and say that if Emerson is really showing Clinton running behind Murphy, that Emerson is trash. I find that impossible to believe too, especially since the thing that's made Murphy come back in the polls has been him bashing Rubio for endorsing Trump. Still lots of good news in the thread. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Devout Centrist on November 02, 2016, 04:24:15 PM This could be a disaster if Trump has no ground game. He could end up ahead in the polls in several states and yet lose them because of no GOTV operation.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 04:46:23 PM Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 10m10 minutes ago Washington, DC
Upshot/Siena polling of North Carolina early voters who *didn't* vote in 2012 (n=133): Clinton 57, Trump 34 Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 52s52 seconds ago Washington, DC NC early voters who didn't vote in 2012: White: C 43, T 45 (v. 35-55 among e.v. who vtd in 12) Nonwhite: C 97, T 2 (v. 90-6 among vt in 12) Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 08:14:43 PM COLORADO
http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/ Of the 54.5% (300/550) of the sample that voted early: Clinton - 44 Trump - 37 Johnson - 4 Stein - 3 SENATE Bennet - 53 Glenn - 36 Other - 4 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Dr. Arch on November 02, 2016, 08:32:44 PM COLORADO http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/ Of the 54.5% (300/550) of the sample that voted early: Clinton - 44 Trump - 37 Johnson - 4 Stein - 3 SENATE Bennet - 53 Glenn - 36 Other - 4 Yea, CO is now Trump+105, didn't you hear? In all seriousness though, CO is looking better this year than in 2012, and I see a bunch of posters in the forum saying things are grim for HRC, lol. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 10:53:52 AM FLORIDA
http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/03/poll-clinton-maintains-four-point-lead-in-florida-rubio-pulls-ahead/ http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-FL-General-11.3.16.pdf Of the 55.2% (333/603) who said they voted early: Clinton - 53 Trump - 44 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: King on November 03, 2016, 10:59:19 AM COLORADO http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/02/hillary-clinton-donald-trump-tied-in-colorado-new-poll-shows/ Of the 54.5% (300/550) of the sample that voted early: Clinton - 44 Trump - 37 Johnson - 4 Stein - 3 SENATE Bennet - 53 Glenn - 36 Other - 4 How junky of a poll do you have to be if you get 8% undecided in a poll of people who already voted? Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 11:02:56 AM How junky of a poll do you have to be if you get 8% undecided in a poll of people who already voted? It's a very strange thing I noticed in several polls-- often something like 5-10% respondents refuse to say who they voted for, but instead of throwing them out of the sample they're still kept in for some reason. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: ursulahx on November 03, 2016, 11:21:55 AM It's a very strange thing I noticed in several polls-- often something like 5-10% respondents refuse to say who they voted for, but instead of throwing them out of the sample they're still kept in for some reason. That'll be your shy Trump voters. ;) Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 03:54:07 PM COLORADO
http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-US-President-Survey-Summary-110316.pdf Of the 64.4% (322/500) of respondents who said they already voted: Clinton - 46 (+6.0) Trump - 40 Johnson - 8 Stein - 2 Other - 2 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 04:05:30 PM http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/polls-trump-ahead-arizona-texas-deadlocked-georgia-n677626
"Trump leads in the early voting, though barely in Arizona and Georgia All three states allow early in-person voting, and Trump is ahead here in all three states - although narrowly in Arizona and Georgia. In Arizona, 58 percent of likely voters say they've already voted, and they're breaking for Trump by a narrow 47 percent-to-44 percent margin. In Georgia, 40 percent of likely voters have already voted, and Trump enjoys a two-point lead, 48 percent to 46 percent. And in Texas, 54 percent of likely voters say they've already voted, and Trump is ahead here by 10 points, 52 percent to 42 percent." Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: HisGrace on November 03, 2016, 06:39:31 PM This could be a disaster if Trump has no ground game. He could end up ahead in the polls in several states and yet lose them because of no GOTV operation. That happened to him several times in the primaries. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 10:01:09 AM USA
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/hint-momentum-clinton-issues-defining-factor-poll/story?id=43281152 "Then again, for more than a quarter of likely voters, this race is run: They’ve already voted, with a 50-45 percent Clinton-Trump estimate for this group." Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 11:02:39 AM IOWA
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_f41eb67b0e694f8ca80b020facc8d937.pdf http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_76f9fa4702cf4db6a24d4e4a4825a97d.xlsx?dn=ECP_IA_11.4.xlsx Of the 37.4% (262/700) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 57 Trump - 34 Stein - 4 Johnson - 3 SENATE Grassley - 48 Judge - 45 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: The Other Castro on November 04, 2016, 11:06:36 AM PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC
In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 11:31:09 AM PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Dr. Arch on November 04, 2016, 11:32:14 AM PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters That's devastating in Wisconsin, and in NC too. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 01:14:45 PM http://www.wthr.com/article/exclusive-wthrhpi-poll-trump-up-double-digits-over-clinton-in-indiana
INDIANA: "Clinton has a slight, 2-point lead with early voters" Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 01:17:59 PM GEORGIA
http://opinionsavvy.com/2016/11/04/poll-trump-ahead-in-georgia-by-four/ http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-GA-General-11.4.16.pdf Of the 58.7% (316/538) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 51 Trump - 43 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 01:22:08 PM Possible evidence for a recent Clinton surge in Georgia?
Clinton's 8-point EV lead with 59% of Opinion Savvy poll is MUCH different than 6-point Trump EV lead that Survey USA found in 30% of their sample a few days ago. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Devout Centrist on November 04, 2016, 01:26:18 PM Day-of voters better show up in droves and vote for Trump.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 02:15:21 PM NEW MEXICO
http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/ZiaPoll.NM.11.02.2016.pdf Of the 20.9% (230/1102) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 56 Trump - 33 Johnson - 6 Stein - 1 Other - 3 NOTE: This is a VERY low early voting percentage, given that 359,980 NM voters have already voted, which is 45.9% of TOTAL (early + election day) electorate (Source: http://www.electproject.org/early_2016). Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: afleitch on November 04, 2016, 02:56:45 PM PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 3m3 minutes ago Raleigh, NC In Nevada we found Hillary leading 54/44 among early voters PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC In North Carolina we found Hillary leading 59/40 among early voters PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 28m28 minutes ago Raleigh, NC In Wisconsin we found Hillary leading 60/34 among early voters That's devastating in Wisconsin, and in NC too. The upshot is estimating the early vote lead in NC is 52-43 to Clinton, so that is brutal. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 03:01:59 PM http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_COMIVA_110416.pdf
COLORADO Of the 73% (514/704) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 52 Trump - 41 Johnson - 3 Stein - 2 McMullin - 1 SENATE: Bennett - 55, Glenn - 38 MICHIGAN Of the 32% (306/957) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 57 Trump - 36 Johnson - 3 Stein - 2 VIRGINIA Of the 14% (173/1238) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 63 Trump - 32 Johnson - 2 McMullin - 1 Stein - 0 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 03:28:03 PM COLORADO
https://salsa3.salsalabs.com/o/50742/images/Keating%20Research-Onsight%20Colorado%20Election%20Track%20November%202-3%202016%20XTABS%20For%20Release.pdf Of the 68% (414/605) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 44 Trump - 40 Johnson - 6 Stein - 1 SENATE: Bennett - 50, Glenn - 41 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: The Other Castro on November 04, 2016, 05:10:15 PM Fox National Poll: "She’s also ahead by 11 points among the one-in-five who have already voted (50-39 percent)."
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 05:31:06 PM http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/election/article112635048.html
USA 34% say they have already voted. Clinton winning 50-42 among people that have already voted. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 04, 2016, 07:55:47 PM WASHINGTON
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=befe5f60-092c-48e8-b36f-b5ae8e28048e Of the 51% (408/800) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 57 Trump - 35 Johnson - 3 Stein - 2 Other - 2 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 05, 2016, 11:29:54 AM IOWA
http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/LCP-NOV-IA-2016.pdf Of the 26.2% (131/500) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton = 57% (69/121) Trump = 29% (35/121) Other = 9% (11/121) Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on November 05, 2016, 11:40:58 AM Day-of voters better show up in droves and vote for Trump. That's when old fogeys vote, during the day. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 05, 2016, 07:18:23 PM IOWA
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90 Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 53 Trump - 31 (Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who haven’t voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32"). Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 01:43:17 AM USA
http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300 "The results in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, rest to some extent on the one-third of likely voters who say they've already voted. They go Clinton by 51-43 percent, leaving it closer among the two-thirds yet to vote when these interviews were completed." Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 06, 2016, 01:49:20 AM MICHIGAN Of the 32% (306/957) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 57 Trump - 36 Johnson - 3 Stein - 2 I thought the MI early vote skewed older and whiter? Those seem like great numbers for Clinton. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 09:46:39 AM OHIO
http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html# Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage." Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: alomas on November 06, 2016, 09:54:39 AM MICHIGAN Of the 32% (306/957) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 57 Trump - 36 Johnson - 3 Stein - 2 I thought the MI early vote skewed older and whiter? Those seem like great numbers for Clinton. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 09:58:16 AM USA
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/final-nbc-wsj-poll-clinton-holds-four-point-national-lead-n678611 "Clinton leads among those who are early voters, 53 percent to 39 percent, while Trump is up among those who will wait to vote on Election Day, 48 percent to 41 percent." I could only get those numbers to work out for the head-to-head case, provided that 55+% (!) of the sample (at least 660/1200) had voted early. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: The Other Castro on November 06, 2016, 10:06:09 AM USA http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/2016-election-day/final-nbc-wsj-poll-clinton-holds-four-point-national-lead-n678611 "Clinton leads among those who are early voters, 53 percent to 39 percent, while Trump is up among those who will wait to vote on Election Day, 48 percent to 41 percent." I could only get those numbers to work out for the head-to-head case, provided that 55+% (!) of the sample (at least 660/1200) had voted early. Hmm that sounds way too high. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 10:09:42 AM As of morning of 11/6, total current received advance vote (for entire country from http://www.electproject.org/early_2016) is equal to 32% of 2012 total vote.
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Kalimantan on November 06, 2016, 10:38:19 AM When you look at these numbers, its striking how far behind the Senate candidates Trump is running, with the exception of Colorado where he is doing better than Glenn.
In the polls written on this thread we have (all numbers difference in Rep-Dem margin): CO +5 on Glenn CO +6 on Glenn IA -26 on Grassley WI -10 on Johnson KS -12 on Moran FL -19 on Rubio GA level with Isakson OH -14 on Portman NV -10 on Heck NC -7 on Burr FL+6 on Rubio (Emerson) How can he win when he is running 10 points or worse on Senate candidates across the country, many of those who are not favoured to win? Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 10:57:05 AM https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/
FLORIDA Of the 63% (748/1188) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 51 Trump - 41 OHIO Of the 19% (226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 63 Trump - 33 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 08:52:28 PM UTAH
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitMnpma3JKTjh4aGs/view Of the 55% (744/1352) of respondents who said they voted early: Trump - 37 Clinton - 37 McMullin 22 Johnson - 4 Other - 1 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on November 06, 2016, 09:00:59 PM UTAH https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitMnpma3JKTjh4aGs/view Of the 55% (744/1352) of respondents who said they voted early: Trump - 37 Clinton - 37 McMullin 22 Johnson - 4 Other - 1 Aww no McMullin win? :/ Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: hopper on November 06, 2016, 09:06:49 PM IOWA http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90 Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 53 Trump - 31 (Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who haven’t voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32"). Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 09:08:19 PM IOWA http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90 Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 53 Trump - 31 (Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who haven’t voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32"). No, there were twice as many non-early-voters in this poll, so overall Trump was up +7 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: HillOfANight on November 06, 2016, 10:45:18 PM OHIO http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html# Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage." Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32) https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 10:56:30 PM OHIO http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html# Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage." Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32) https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161 This was for the 19% of their sample that voted early... Benjamin Lazarus @ben_d_lazarus 8m8 minutes ago (4/5) But, we provided snapshot in time, sample only 19% EV; in 2012 33% of Ohio vote was cast early ...which matches current Ohio EV exactly. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 11:24:18 PM OHIO http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html# Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage." Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32) https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161 This was for the 19% of their sample that voted early... Benjamin Lazarus @ben_d_lazarus 8m8 minutes ago (4/5) But, we provided snapshot in time, sample only 19% EV; in 2012 33% of Ohio vote was cast early ...which matches current Ohio EV exactly. And as it turns out that's no coincidence, since they weighted by the early vote (don't think anyone else does that): "Of the 1194 total interviews, 497 were conducted among respondents who voted early in the 2016 general election, either absentee or in-person, according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. These respondents were weighted down to an effective sample size of 160 so that the early vote sub-sample represents 17 percent of the overall sample, which is the percent of registered voters, as of the morning of November 4, 2016, who have voted early according to data from the Ohio Secretary of State that was matched back to the TargetSmart voter file. The early vote data were weighted to reflect population parameters on TargetSmart Partisanship Score, TargetSmart 2016 General Election Turnout Score, age, gender, race, and media market of the overall population of early voters in Ohio who had participated as of the morning of November 4, 2016" Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 11:41:00 AM https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2401
FLORIDA Of the 65% (575/884) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 47 Trump - 43 Johnson - 2 Stein - 0 Other - 1 Rubio - 48 Murphy - 46 Other - 2 NORTH CAROLINA Of the 67% (583/884) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 52 Trump - 40 Johnson - 2 Other - 2 Ross - 51 Burr - 43 Other - 2 Cooper - 56 McCrory - 40 Other - 1 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 12:23:56 PM NORTH CAROLINA
http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/5aa2333d-0f5b-49b3-92d6-dfcc5a1c58f6.pdf Of the 63% (504/800) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 49 Trump - 40 Ross - 52 Burr - 42 Cooper - 52 McCrory - 43 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 12:48:36 PM FLORIDA
http://opinionsavvy.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/OS-FL-General-11.7.16.pdf Of the 71% (607/853) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton still leads the early vote by roughly 8%" Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 01:46:13 PM USA
http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016.11.04-US-Horserace.pdf Of the 21% (242/1151) of respondents who said they voted early: Clinton - 57 Trump - 39 Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: BoAtlantis on November 07, 2016, 03:51:20 PM USA http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/qualifications-temperament-aid-clinton-2016-campaigns-closing-days/story?id=43327300 "The results in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates, rest to some extent on the one-third of likely voters who say they've already voted. They go Clinton by 51-43 percent, leaving it closer among the two-thirds yet to vote when these interviews were completed." John Harwood hat retweetet Chris Cillizza @TheFix Clinton ahead among early voters 55-40 in latest WaPo-ABC tracking poll Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: The Other Castro on November 07, 2016, 03:59:33 PM ()
Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 04:09:13 PM USA
This 49-42 lead applies to the 37% (1360/3677) of respondents who said they already voted: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/95dcxi5lf1/econToplines_lv.pdf Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 08:36:44 PM FLORIDA polling of early voting summary
Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses: Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8 Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42) YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41) Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44) Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42) TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37) Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42) NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37) FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41) Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: win win on November 07, 2016, 09:12:59 PM FLORIDA polling of early voting summary Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses: Opinion Savvy: 71% (607 EV)-- Clinton +8 Quinnipiac: 65% (575 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42) YouGov: 63% (748 EV)-- Clinton +10 (51-41) Opinion Savvy: 55% (333 EV)-- Clinton +9 (53-44) Emerson: 51% (257 EV)-- Clinton +15 (57-42) TargetSmart: 43% (311 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37) Quinnipiac: 42% (263 EV)-- Clinton +6 (48-42) NBC: 36% (356 EV)-- Clinton +17 (54-37) FAU: 26% (226 EV)-- Clinton +12 (54-41) Based on the most recent polling, and how well the Dems did in early voting this past weekend, I think it's safe to say that Clinton is heading into election day with almost a 10-point lead among the ~76% of the population that has now voted. where did you get theses numbers? source? Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 09:13:20 PM NORTH CAROLINA polling of early voting summary
Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses: Quinnipiac: 67% (583 EV)-- Clinton +12 (52-40) Siena/NYT: 63% (504 EV)-- Clinton +9 (49-40) Quinnipiac: 44% (265 EV)-- Clinton +22 (58-36) Emerson: 32% (209 EV)-- Clinton +22 (59-37) Siena/NYT: 31% (492 EV)-- Clinton +15 (53-38) YouGov: 29% (288 EV)-- Clinton +6 (51-45) Marist/NBC: 29% (295 EV)-- Clinton +28 (61-33) PPP: 19% (166 EV)-- Clinton +26 (63-37) Quinnipiac: 15% (105 EV)-- Clinton +28 (62-34) So much like Florida, Clinton seems to have built a huge lead in the very early voting that seems to have dropped down to high single digits among the ~66% of voters that voted by the end of in-person EV (turnout estimate of 4.7 M taken from Upshot). Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 07, 2016, 09:14:53 PM where did you get theses numbers? source? I have separate posts with links for all of these polls earlier in this thread. Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 08, 2016, 04:05:37 AM COLORADO polling of early voting summary
Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses: PPP: 73% (514 EV)-- Clinton +11 (52-41) Keating: 68% (414 EV)-- Clinton +4 (44-40) Magellan: 64% (322 EV)-- Clinton +6 (46-40) Denver Post: 54% (300 EV)-- Clinton +17 (53-36) YouGov: 28% (279 EV)-- Clinton +18 (55-37) There's a lot more variance in Clinton's polled EV leads in Colorado (though note that Trump's share is always between 36-41), but I think it's reasonable to assume that Clinton has at least a 6-pt lead among the 77% of the voters who have already voted (based on total 2012 vote). Title: Re: Poll Results of Early Voters thread Post by: Ozymandias on November 08, 2016, 04:25:01 AM IOWA polling of early voting summary
Presented from most-to-least percent of Early Voters (EV), with absolute number of EV (which can be used as a proxy for MOE) in parentheses: Emerson: 37% (262 EV)-- Clinton +23 (57-34) Selzer: 34% (272 EV)-- Clinton +22 (53-31) Loras: 26% (131 EV)-- Clinton +28 (57-29) Quinnipiac: 21% (166 EV)-- Clinton +34 (61-27) So even though Democratic early vote share is down vs. 2012, and Clinton is behind in most Iowa polls, she actually appears to have at least a 20% lead among the 40% of voters who have already voted (based on total 2012 vote). |