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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: BoAtlantis on October 27, 2016, 02:01:16 pm



Title: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 27, 2016, 02:01:16 pm
https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397

GA

Clinton 43
Trump 44
Johnson 8

IA
Clinton 44
Trump 44
Johnson 4

NC
Clinton 47
Trump 43
Johnson 5

VA
Clinton 50
Trump 38
Johnson 4

Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:
Georgia: Clinton-Trump tied at 46 - 46 percent;
Iowa: Trump at 47 percent to Clinton's 46 percent;
North Carolina: Clinton leads Trump 50 - 44 percent;
Virginia: Clinton buries Trump 53 - 40 percent.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Arch on October 27, 2016, 02:01:46 pm
BEAUTIFUL. Very good results.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Ebsy on October 27, 2016, 02:02:05 pm
Great honer!


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 27, 2016, 02:02:36 pm
That was scary.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Brittain33 on October 27, 2016, 02:02:44 pm
Completely unobjectionable.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 27, 2016, 02:03:12 pm
Glad to see IA coming back for her.

Quinnipiac has a slight Republican bias so she could win here. I've been pessimistic about this state.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: MasterJedi on October 27, 2016, 02:03:25 pm
Let the Trump slowly start to circle the toilet.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: psychprofessor on October 27, 2016, 02:03:40 pm
these are awful numbers for Trump


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Ozymandias on October 27, 2016, 02:04:17 pm
"Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:

GA: Clinton-Trump tied at 46 - 46 percent;
IA: Trump at 47 percent to Clinton's 46 percent;
NC: Clinton leads Trump 50 - 44 percent;
VA: Clinton buries Trump 53 - 40 percent."


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Yank2133 on October 27, 2016, 02:04:24 pm
These are an excellent batch of polls for Hillary.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Devout Centrist on October 27, 2016, 02:04:55 pm
HOLY SH*T

And from a slight R leaning pollster too


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Ebsy on October 27, 2016, 02:04:58 pm
Michelle Obama is delivering North Carolina to Clinton on a silver platter as we speak!


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: HillOfANight on October 27, 2016, 02:05:01 pm
Early voters
Clinton leads 48 - 42 in GA
Clinton leads 61 - 27 in IA
Clinton leads 62 - 34 in NC


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Gass3268 on October 27, 2016, 02:05:12 pm
Theses are amazing polls!


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Snek! on October 27, 2016, 02:05:22 pm
Hillary is still on track to win by between Obama's two runs.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 27, 2016, 02:05:32 pm
Phew, these are really good numbers. Very nice.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: john cage bubblegum on October 27, 2016, 02:05:35 pm
Beautiful!  Thanks for the mid-afternoon mood lifter, Q.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 27, 2016, 02:06:58 pm
Trump has worse favorability #s in all four states, even Georgia.  In Georgia, itís:

Clinton 40/55% for -15%
Trump 38/55% for -17%


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: psychprofessor on October 27, 2016, 02:09:26 pm
Early voters
Clinton leads 48 - 42 in GA
Clinton leads 61 - 27 in IA
Clinton leads 62 - 34 in NC


This may put Iowa and NC out of reach before election day. I'm excited about flipping Georgia and Arizona now. Monmouth with a 1 point lead for Trump in AZ and Q with a 1 point lead for Trump in GA. Wow.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Ebsy on October 27, 2016, 02:10:23 pm
For the record, in their September 22nd polls, Trump lead by 7 in Georgia, Trump lead by 7 in Iowa, Clinton lead by 3 in North Carolina and by 6 in Georgia. Improvement across the board.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: HokeyDood on October 27, 2016, 02:10:35 pm
WOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOWOW

(
Img
)


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: rafta_rafta on October 27, 2016, 02:10:46 pm
Woo Hoo! I hope the Trumpkins are ready for Madam President


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Mr. Morden on October 27, 2016, 02:12:50 pm
Gotta love that race/education gap in the South.

In Georgia, itís:

whites without college degree:
Trump 69%
Clinton 16%
Johnson 12%

whites with a college degree:
Trump 59%
Clinton 32%
Johnson 5%

non-whites:
Clinton 77%
Trump 9%
Johnson 6%


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Chaddyr23 on October 27, 2016, 02:15:29 pm
What does 538 rate them as?


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 27, 2016, 02:16:51 pm
Trump needs civil war to win this election.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 27, 2016, 02:17:30 pm
What does 538 rate them as?
A- and R bias.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 27, 2016, 02:17:35 pm
What does 538 rate them as?

A- if I recall


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: psychprofessor on October 27, 2016, 02:19:01 pm
What does 538 rate them as?
A- and R bias.

They've consistently been Hillary's worst state polls all cycle.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Wiz in Wis on October 27, 2016, 02:19:56 pm
North Carolina is clearly moving into the light blue camp.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 27, 2016, 02:20:17 pm
Wow! Looks like we may just bring those corn-adled inbreds to heel after all!


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 27, 2016, 02:24:57 pm
Love it.
Looks like she still has a shot at IA.
And NC is clearly and safely a "Lean Dem" state.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Snek! on October 27, 2016, 02:26:17 pm
Wow! Looks like we may just bring those corn-adled inbreds to heel after all!
...stahp. Don't insult the second basket.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: tinman64 on October 27, 2016, 02:26:56 pm
I'm willing to take NC and VA as new " light to medium blue" states. Trumpy and the GOP can have IA and Hooterville.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 27, 2016, 02:28:30 pm
And yet their senate polls tomorrow will be Republican-friendly.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Klepto Kemp on October 27, 2016, 02:31:14 pm
Who would have thought the Democrats would be doing better in Georgia and North Carolina than in Ohio and Iowa.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Hammy on October 27, 2016, 02:32:05 pm
For the record, in their September 22nd polls, Trump lead by 7 in Georgia, Trump lead by 7 in Iowa, Clinton lead by 3 in North Carolina and by 6 in Georgia. Improvement across the board.

Ironic since just yesterday the forum had a panic about the race supposedly tightening in Trump's favor.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 27, 2016, 02:39:12 pm
Ha!

@hellofasandwich

In late Oct. '12, SUSA polled GA and had Romney up 51-48 among early voters.

Per Quinnipiac, Clinton is leading the GA early vote by 48-42.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Gass3268 on October 27, 2016, 02:40:31 pm
For whatever reason, these polls plus Clinton up 6 in the PEW poll took a full % point off her lead. I have no idea why!


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: RJEvans on October 27, 2016, 02:47:45 pm
"Head-to-head matchups among likely voters show:

GA: Clinton-Trump tied at 46 - 46 percent;
IA: Trump at 47 percent to Clinton's 46 percent;
NC: Clinton leads Trump 50 - 44 percent;
VA: Clinton buries Trump 53 - 40 percent."

She's at 50% in NC and VA in the H2H. That's very good news for Clinton 12 days before the election.

Early voters
Clinton leads 48 - 42 in GA
Clinton leads 61 - 27 in IA
Clinton leads 62 - 34 in NC


Are we certain the Clinton camp did not reach out to low propensity GOP Never Trumpers in their GOTV in IA?

For whatever reason, these polls plus Clinton up 6 in the PEW poll took a full % point off her lead. I have no idea why!

Neither do I. I don't see how a these numbers can indicate anything but increased chances.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Lief 🐋 on October 27, 2016, 02:55:20 pm
omfg these polls INCREASED Trump's 538 chance by 1%!

When will dopey fraud Nate Silver finally be made to pay for his crimes?!


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: HokeyDood on October 27, 2016, 02:58:34 pm
omfg these polls INCREASED Trump's 538 chance by 1%!

When will dopey fraud Nate Silver finally be made to pay for his crimes?!

(
Img
)

W...w...what was that, Donald?  These are actually tremendous?  YUGE, even?  O...o...o...ok, I'll go update our model.  
.
.
.
.
Yes, sir.  Yes.  The Yankees certainly still have a chance.  Still two creams and one sugar?  Okie dokie. 


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 27, 2016, 03:00:40 pm
I can't tell you the exact reason but

Fivethirtyeight

decreased Hillary's chance in NC
decreased Hillary's chance in GA
decreased Hillary's chance nationally

My incomplete explanation is that she has to expand her rubber band if she wants to go any higher like something showing GA Clinton +5.

Anything that continues to solidify Trump's lead in red leaning state can only bring her down.
It becomes exponentially more difficult to go from 85% to 90%; 90% to 95% and so on.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: RJEvans on October 27, 2016, 03:01:10 pm
omfg these polls INCREASED Trump's 538 chance by 1%!

When will dopey fraud Nate Silver finally be made to pay for his crimes?!

I think his increased chances stem for his improvement in OH. It's flipped in 2 of the 3 models.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: HokeyDood on October 27, 2016, 03:01:51 pm
I can't tell you the exact reason but

Fivethirtyeight

decreased Hillary's chance in NC
decreased Hillary's chance in GA
decreased Hillary's chance nationally

My incomplete explanation is that she has to expand her rubber band if she wants to go any higher like something showing GA Clinton +5.

Anything that continues to solidify Trump's lead in red leaning state can only bring her down.
It becomes exponentially more difficult to go from 85% to 90%; 90% to 95% and so on.

Or Nate is just a stupid little bitch looking for clicks. 


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Maxwell on October 27, 2016, 03:09:10 pm
this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: TC 25 on October 27, 2016, 03:13:08 pm
I thought the left worships at the altar of Nate Silver.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Maxwell on October 27, 2016, 03:14:24 pm
I thought the left worships at the altar of Nate Silver.

"the left" likes accurate, coherent analysis, which Silver has been doing less and less of, replacing it with clickbait articles and bloviating punditisms.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: heatcharger on October 27, 2016, 03:16:48 pm
LOL at Trump still trying in VA. I'm seeing more Trump ads in the last few days than ever before.

Hopefully Ross can pull this off, but because this is Quinnipiac I'm sure Burr will be outperforming Trump by 10 points or something.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Snek! on October 27, 2016, 03:18:09 pm
LOL at Trump still trying in VA. I'm seeing more Trump ads than ever before in the last few days.

Hopefully Ross can pull this off, but because this is Quinnipiac I'm sure Burr will be outperforming Trump by 10 points or something.

He is just campaigning there because he is too lazy to go campaign past Ohio or Florida since he is in his bunker.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Pyro on October 27, 2016, 03:19:49 pm
Can we quit it with the panic threads now?


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Maxwell on October 27, 2016, 03:20:57 pm
h2h:

Georgia - 46% Clinton v. 46% Trump
Iowa - 47% Trump v. 46% Clinton
North Carolina - 50% Clinton v. 44% Trump (!!!)
Virginia - 53% Clinton v. 41% Trump


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Arch on October 27, 2016, 03:21:56 pm
h2h:

Georgia - 46% Clinton v. 46% Trump
Iowa - 47% Trump v. 46% Clinton
North Carolina - 50% Clinton v. 44% Trump (!!!)
Virginia - 53% Clinton v. 41% Trump

Holy moly. Tied in GA and +6 in NC (!)


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Maxwell on October 27, 2016, 03:22:52 pm
She also leads 61-27 (!!!) among Iowa early voters, which means if the bottom drops on Trumper enthusiasm, Iowa could get ugly quickly.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Eraserhead on October 27, 2016, 03:23:46 pm
These are great numbers for Hillary. It's amusing how stubborn Iowa is being for a state Obama won easily both times though.

Stein is at 2% in Virginia and 1% in Iowa if anyone cares. She's only a write-in in the other two states so they didn't include her as an option.  


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Ebsy on October 27, 2016, 03:24:02 pm
She also leads 61-27 (!!!) among Iowa early voters, which means if the bottom drops on Trumper enthusiasm, Iowa could get ugly quickly.
Iowa early voters are heavily Democratic in most elections.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: dspNY on October 27, 2016, 03:25:52 pm
Beautiful polls!!!


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Maxwell on October 27, 2016, 03:31:28 pm
RCP had a compromise - they put in the North Carolina and Iowa polls, but hilariously not the Georgia or the Virginia polls.

insert perspiration dog gif.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Arch on October 27, 2016, 03:32:44 pm
RCP had a compromise - they put in the North Carolina and Iowa polls, but hilariously not the Georgia or the Virginia polls.

insert perspiration dog gif.

No wait, you're serious?? Wow


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Eraserhead on October 27, 2016, 03:35:12 pm
RCP had a compromise - they put in the North Carolina and Iowa polls, but hilariously not the Georgia or the Virginia polls.

insert perspiration dog gif.

Yep, they do this crap every election year. Pathetic.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: North Fulton Democrat on October 27, 2016, 03:39:07 pm
A great report--and gives some hope that because of the strong early voting in Iowa, Hillary could win there as well.



Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: psychprofessor on October 27, 2016, 03:43:56 pm
these polls lowered hillary's chances on 538 lol


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Noted Irishman on October 27, 2016, 03:44:20 pm
Gotta love that race/education gap in the South.

In Georgia, itís:
whites without college degree:
Trump 69%
Clinton 16%
Johnson 12%

whites with a college degree:
Trump 59%
Clinton 32%
Johnson 5%

non-whites:
Clinton 77%
Trump 9%
Johnson 6%

In the two-way model of this, Clinton's pulling 89% among non-whites (2008 numbers) and 27% among whites (better than 2008 numbers). She only needs a replication of '08 support numbers or slightly below to win the state.

I guess this is why all of the (non-creepy) Trump kids have visited Georgia in the past few days. Sending your top surrogates to a state like Georgia in the final weeks doesn't look good.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Maxwell on October 27, 2016, 03:46:36 pm
withdrawing my complaint - they just added georgia.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: HillOfANight on October 27, 2016, 03:53:06 pm
Gotta love that race/education gap in the South.

In Georgia, itís:
whites without college degree:
Trump 69%
Clinton 16%
Johnson 12%

whites with a college degree:
Trump 59%
Clinton 32%
Johnson 5%

non-whites:
Clinton 77%
Trump 9%
Johnson 6%

In the two-way model of this, Clinton's pulling 89% among non-whites (2008 numbers) and 27% among whites (better than 2008 numbers). She only needs a replication of '08 support numbers or slightly below to win the state.

I guess this is why all of the (non-creepy) Trump kids have visited Georgia in the past few days. Sending your top surrogates to a state like Georgia in the final weeks doesn't look good.

http://politics.blog.ajc.com/2016/10/27/usher-tyra-banks-among-celebs-stumping-for-hillary-clinton-this-weekend/

She's bringing out the big guns (Meg Whitman, Usher, Tyra Banks).


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard on October 27, 2016, 04:01:25 pm
Finally an Iowa poll!


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on October 27, 2016, 04:10:20 pm
5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: mark_twain on October 27, 2016, 04:21:04 pm

This poll confirmed my hunch that Clinton has a realistic chance of winning GA!



Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Gass3268 on October 27, 2016, 04:24:34 pm
5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.

What happens if they just don't vote, which is just as possible at this point in the game.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 27, 2016, 04:42:10 pm
this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Maxwell on October 27, 2016, 04:46:44 pm
this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Are you critiquing Silver or me?

I mean I guess the big swinger is the Missouri poll showing Trump up 11, but really why should a Missouri poll swing it that much when we basically know Trump is going to win Missouri?


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 27, 2016, 04:54:30 pm
5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.

Yes, I'd agree with this from my perception on the ground (which is admittedly limited to my social circle and the people I work with).  I think Trump has slightly more support overall.  Whether that support translates into more votes is a different and more interesting question.  There seems to be more enthusiasm among the Clinton supporters.  I think it really could go either way.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 27, 2016, 05:01:01 pm
this is waaaay better than even I expected. Wow!

somehow Nate Silver's math isn't adding up to me - all of these polls should improve Clinton's chances.

The United States is tops in the world in confidence in our ability to do mathematics.
USA! USA! USA! USA!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Are you critiquing Silver or me?

I mean I guess the big swinger is the Missouri poll showing Trump up 11, but really why should a Missouri poll swing it that much when we basically know Trump is going to win Missouri?
It wasn't meant as critique of this particular post, but about Nate being a clickbait.
I mean it is more or less the same model that was used in 2012 etc. Plus Nate is probably extra cautious bc of ~Brexit'ish phenomena.

I think, Pew was the mostly responsible for it. It has pretty big sample/weight.
Quote
but really why should a Missouri poll swing it that much when we basically know Trump is going to win Missouri?
State correlation?


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: PresidentSamTilden on October 27, 2016, 05:52:44 pm
5% undecided for GA, if they split 4-1 Trump, he wins 48-44 in the three-way. Even if they somehow split 3-2 Clinton, it's a 46-46 tie. The way it would work out for Clinton is if Johnson gets a notable amount of late deciders, if we split it 3-1-1 (Clinton-Trump-Johnson), then Clinton ekes it out 46-45.

As you can see, Trump is probably still the favorite on some level in this state.

Yeah, I do think Trump is still in the driver's seat in GA. That 50-44 in the NC two way is devastating if accurate, though. He can't win without it, and the window is closing fast.


Title: GA: Quinnipiac University: Close Race for President in Georgia
Post by: Dave Leip on October 27, 2016, 05:55:38 pm
New Poll: Georgia President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-26 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1320161026015)

Summary: D: 43%, R: 44%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397)


Title: IA: Quinnipiac University: Iowa Presidential Race Tied
Post by: Dave Leip on October 27, 2016, 05:56:21 pm
New Poll: Iowa President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-26 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920161026015)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 44%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397)


Title: NC: Quinnipiac University: Clinton with Slight Lead in North Carolina
Post by: Dave Leip on October 27, 2016, 05:57:02 pm
New Poll: North Carolina President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-26 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720161026015)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 43%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397)


Title: VA: Quinnipiac University: Clinton with Solid Lead in Virginia
Post by: Dave Leip on October 27, 2016, 05:57:32 pm
New Poll: Virginia President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-10-26 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5120161026015)

Summary: D: 50%, R: 38%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2397)


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 27, 2016, 08:14:34 pm
Great numbers, especially if it's supposed to have a R house effect.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: IceSpear on October 28, 2016, 02:20:39 am
People are still paying attention to Nate "Rhode Island is a swing state" Silver?


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Kempros on February 10, 2017, 09:18:09 pm
One of the least accurate polls ever.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: krazen1211 on February 10, 2017, 09:26:31 pm
these are awful numbers for Trump

No way!


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 10, 2017, 10:02:24 pm
Great numbers, especially if it's supposed to have a R house effect.


Title: Re: Quinnipiac-GA: Trump +1 IA: Tied + NC: Clinton +4 VA: Clinton +12
Post by: Beet on February 10, 2017, 10:14:19 pm
This was pre-Comey.