Talk Elections

Florida
Clinton 46%
Trump 45%
Johnson 4%

Ohio
Clinton 45%
Trump 45%
Johnson 6%

Nevada
Clinton 44%
Trump 42%
Johnson 3%

North Carolina
Clinton 48%
Trump 45%
Johnson 4%

Wisconsin
Clinton 48%
Trump 42%
Johnson 9%

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf

Lights out, Donny.

This does seem to suggest it's tightening.

Considering this is Emerson trash, good numbers for Clinton.

No.

By a landline only pollster?! These are fantastic numbers for HRC.

Solid numbers for Clinton!

Keep it up!

It literally absolutely factually doesn't.

And just checking, the link confirms that they're still using IVR to landlines only.

Emerson LOL

This is Emerson so these are very good polls for her. The Ohio tie is the best of the bunch

or that a pollster with a historic right-lean and landline only polling shows Clinton ahead in many swing states.

you know, take your pick.

For comparison, their Senate results are: Rubio+2, Portman+14, Heck+4, Burr+4, Feingold+5

So Clinton running ahead of every Dem. Senate candidate in their poll.

Rubio seems to be in trouble these last few weeks.

These are actually great for Hillary coming from Emerson, but they were conducted pre-emails.

What emails? None of the emails were from Clinton. Move on.

I don't know...maybe the ones the media has been spamming us about yesterday and today? You're preaching to the choir. The people who decide elections don't care about the nitty gritty. You'll see when the post email polls drop.

Well unfortunately for the haters a ton of the early vote is in which renders Comey's desperate Hail Mary useless. Plus, Trump is psychotic and that makes voters staying home or flipping a lot less likely.

Here are the breakdowns for the early voters in each of these four pols (details starting here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=249803.msg5350583#msg5350583)

FL: Clinton - 57, Trump - 42, Johnson - 0.4, Stein - 0.4 (based on 257 of 500 LV = 51%)

NC: Clinton - 59, Trump - 37, Johnson - 0.4 (based on 209 of 650 LV = 32%)

NV: Clinton - 49, Trump - 32, Johnson - 2.5 (based on 237 of 550 LV = 43%)

OH: Clinton - 59, Trump - 35, Johnson - 0, Stein - 0 (based on 223 of 800 LV = 28%)

(Note Stein not on ballot in NC or NV)

Yeah---- I'm curious about percentage of landline only versus cell phone only by state, demographics, and age, since I suspect certain states like OH might have a higher population of landline-only residents versus states with large numbers of Millennials and less frequent voters.

NC drifting left of NV? Fantastic!

I was reading through the 2012 early vote thread on this forum and the percentage % is similar to 2012 for the early vote.

Even more proof that at the end of the day the third party vote will be almost negligible.

The CDC tracks this information.  There's a good demographic breakdown from 2015 at http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nhis/earlyrelease/wireless201512.pdf.  The latest state-by-state data I can find is a bit dated (2011-2012) at http://www.cdc.gov/nchS/data/nhsr/nhsr070.pdf.  Enjoy. :)

The question with regard to landline polls is do they get weighted so they reflect what the numbers would be if they included cell phones. I mean if the pollster wants their polls to be taken seriously then surely they would.

New Poll: Florida President by Emerson College on 2016-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220161027223)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf)

New Poll: Ohio President by Emerson College on 2016-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920161027223)

Summary: D: 45%, R: 45%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf)

New Poll: Wisconsin President by Emerson College on 2016-10-28 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5520161028223)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 42%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf)

New Poll: North Carolina President by Emerson College on 2016-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720161027223)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 45%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf)

New Poll: Nevada President by Emerson College on 2016-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3220161027223)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 42%, U: 10%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf)

I'm not sure what you mean.  Both kinds of polls are weighted to match the demographics of the electorate.  The issue is more that people who answer cell phone polls but not landline polls or vice versa might vote systematically differently, even for people of the same demographic group.

Also, there are certain demographics where landline answerers might be such a tiny fraction of the population that you have to give them extremely large weights.  Which doesn't necessarily bias things one way or the other, but inflates the MoE.

Last two polls i've seen now were a tie from PPP and -2 here. Can we give Murphy his money back? The Obama bounce is real.