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Title: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 03:20:17 PM http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf
FLORIDA Marco Rubio (R): 49% Patrick Murphy (D): 47% Other: 3% Undecided: 1% NEVADA Joe Heck (R): 48% Catherine Cortez Masto (D): 44% Someone else: 3% Undecided 6% NORTH CAROLINA Richard Burr (R): 48% Deborah Ross (D): 44% Someone Else: 3% Undecided 6% WISCONSIN Russ Feingold (D): 49% Ron Johnson (R): 44% Other: 4% Undecided 3% OHIO Rob Portman (R): 49% Ted Strickland (D): 35% Someone else: 4% Undecided: 12% Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: heatcharger on October 29, 2016, 03:23:49 PM Emerson is junk and will be proven to be junk on Election Day.
Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 29, 2016, 03:37:03 PM oh ffs
Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 29, 2016, 04:02:59 PM So Heck is either up 7, up 4, down 1, or down 6. Thanks a lot, pollsters. I have no idea what this is supposed to tell me.
Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: BuckeyeNut on October 29, 2016, 05:03:42 PM I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T
Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9. Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Young Conservative on October 29, 2016, 05:13:47 PM I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9. Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon on October 29, 2016, 05:17:54 PM Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9. I don't like these results, so I'll just unskew them so they look good. FTFY Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: windjammer on October 29, 2016, 05:20:29 PM Emerson is a well known trash firm, so I'm not going to comment it
Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: BuckeyeNut on October 29, 2016, 05:40:42 PM Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9. I don't like these results, so I'll just unskew them so they look good. FTFY Title: OH: Emerson College: Portman with Solid Lead in Ohio Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 29, 2016, 06:14:05 PM New Poll: Ohio Senator by Emerson College on 2016-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=39320161027223)
Summary: D: 35%, R: 49%, I: 4%, U: 12% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf) Title: FL: Emerson College: Close Race for Florida Senate Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 29, 2016, 06:15:56 PM New Poll: Florida Senator by Emerson College on 2016-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=12320161027223)
Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 3%, U: 1% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf) Title: WI: Emerson College: Feingold Leading in Wisconsin Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 29, 2016, 06:16:46 PM New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Emerson College on 2016-10-28 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=55320161028223)
Summary: D: 49%, R: 44%, I: 4%, U: 3% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf) Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Xing on October 29, 2016, 06:36:10 PM Hmmm, if Emerson only finds Flawless Beautiful Marco <3 <3 <3 up 2, maybe he really is in trouble.
Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: SWE on October 29, 2016, 06:58:08 PM Even Emerson can only find Rubio up by 2? Looks like Murphy's going to pull this out after all.
Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Illuminati Blood Drinker on October 29, 2016, 07:14:39 PM Even Emerson can only find Rubio up by 2? Looks like Murphy's going to pull this out after all. Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Vosem on October 29, 2016, 07:22:40 PM 538 adjusts Emerson for having a +2 pro-R house effect, which is reasonable, but the problem with just adjusting all of these 2 to the R side is that that's the average amount it's off by, not consistent. I think based on other polling, for instance, we could expect a Rubio+2 and Feingold+5 to stay where they are, while Burr and Heck are both tied with their opponents.
But ultimately these things are kind of unknowable. Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Vosem on October 29, 2016, 07:23:30 PM Even Emerson can only find Rubio up by 2? Looks like Murphy's going to pull this out after all. Midterms aren't general elections, but polls pretty consistently had Charlie Crist with over 60% of the early vote in FL-2014. He still lost. Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: DavidB. on October 29, 2016, 07:51:28 PM I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9. Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Eraserhead on October 29, 2016, 09:47:06 PM Emerson sucks but these actually look believable except for NV which I suspect a lot of pollsters are having trouble with.
Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on October 29, 2016, 10:00:28 PM Emerson sucks but these actually look believable except for NV which I suspect a lot of pollsters are having trouble with. It would be a huge disappointment if Burr won by 4. Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14 Post by: Heisenberg on October 29, 2016, 11:44:26 PM Emerson sucks but these actually look believable except for NV which I suspect a lot of pollsters are having trouble with. It would be a huge disappointment if Burr won by 4. |