Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 03:20:17 pm



Title: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Ozymandias on October 29, 2016, 03:20:17 pm
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf

FLORIDA
Marco   Rubio (R):   49%         
Patrick   Murphy (D):   47%         
Other:   3%
Undecided:   1%

NEVADA      
Joe   Heck (R):   48%      
Catherine   Cortez   Masto (D):   44%   
Someone   else:   3%
Undecided   6%

NORTH CAROLINA
Richard   Burr (R):   48%   
Deborah   Ross (D):   44%      
Someone   Else:   3%
Undecided   6%

WISCONSIN   
Russ   Feingold (D):   49%
Ron   Johnson (R):   44%   
Other:   4%
Undecided   3%

OHIO
Rob   Portman   (R):   49%
Ted   Strickland   (D):   35%            
Someone   else:   4%
Undecided:   12%


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: heatcharger on October 29, 2016, 03:23:49 pm
Emerson is junk and will be proven to be junk on Election Day.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on October 29, 2016, 03:32:40 pm
Nice.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 29, 2016, 03:37:03 pm
oh ffs


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on October 29, 2016, 04:02:59 pm
So Heck is either up 7, up 4, down 1, or down 6. Thanks a lot, pollsters. I have no idea what this is supposed to tell me.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: THE BuckeyeNut on October 29, 2016, 05:03:42 pm
I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T

Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Young Conservative on October 29, 2016, 05:13:47 pm
I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T

Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9.
Then you're being silly. Plus One is more likely, plus two is a stretch, plus five is not in the realm of possibility.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on October 29, 2016, 05:17:54 pm
I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T

Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9.

I don't like these results, so I'll just unskew them so they look good.

FTFY


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: King Francis I on October 29, 2016, 05:20:29 pm
Emerson is a well known trash firm, so I'm not going to comment it


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: THE BuckeyeNut on October 29, 2016, 05:40:42 pm
I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T

Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9.

I don't like these results, so I'll just unskew them so they look good.

FTFY
Emerson's junk. Unskewing is junk. Put the two together, and you get a positive.


Title: OH: Emerson College: Portman with Solid Lead in Ohio
Post by: Dave Leip on October 29, 2016, 06:14:05 pm
New Poll: Ohio Senator by Emerson College on 2016-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=39320161027223)

Summary: D: 35%, R: 49%, I: 4%, U: 12%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf)


Title: FL: Emerson College: Close Race for Florida Senate
Post by: Dave Leip on October 29, 2016, 06:15:56 pm
New Poll: Florida Senator by Emerson College on 2016-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=12320161027223)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 3%, U: 1%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf)


Title: WI: Emerson College: Feingold Leading in Wisconsin
Post by: Dave Leip on October 29, 2016, 06:16:46 pm
New Poll: Wisconsin Senator by Emerson College on 2016-10-28 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=55320161028223)

Summary: D: 49%, R: 44%, I: 4%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_136cb97bafca4b36838f08d63a5d1a0c.pdf)


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on October 29, 2016, 06:36:10 pm
Hmmm, if Emerson only finds Flawless Beautiful Marco <3 <3 <3 up 2, maybe he really is in trouble.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: SWE on October 29, 2016, 06:58:08 pm
Even Emerson can only find Rubio up by 2? Looks like Murphy's going to pull this out after all.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Illuminati Blood Drinker on October 29, 2016, 07:14:39 pm
Even Emerson can only find Rubio up by 2? Looks like Murphy's going to pull this out after all.
They also pegged him as having a yuge lead (58-37?) among early voters. Little Marco better watch out.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Vosem on October 29, 2016, 07:22:40 pm
538 adjusts Emerson for having a +2 pro-R house effect, which is reasonable, but the problem with just adjusting all of these 2 to the R side is that that's the average amount it's off by, not consistent. I think based on other polling, for instance, we could expect a Rubio+2 and Feingold+5 to stay where they are, while Burr and Heck are both tied with their opponents.

But ultimately these things are kind of unknowable.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Vosem on October 29, 2016, 07:23:30 pm
Even Emerson can only find Rubio up by 2? Looks like Murphy's going to pull this out after all.
They also pegged him as having a yuge lead (58-37?) among early voters. Little Marco better watch out.

Midterms aren't general elections, but polls pretty consistently had Charlie Crist with over 60% of the early vote in FL-2014. He still lost.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: DavidB. on October 29, 2016, 07:51:28 pm
I'd say something like, roughly, +5 D to all these. T

Murphy +3, Ross +1, CCM +1, Feingold +10, Portman +9.
LOL! Wishful thinking much? ::)


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Eraserhead on October 29, 2016, 09:47:06 pm
Emerson sucks but these actually look believable except for NV which I suspect a lot of pollsters are having trouble with.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 29, 2016, 10:00:28 pm
Emerson sucks but these actually look believable except for NV which I suspect a lot of pollsters are having trouble with.

It would be a huge disappointment if Burr won by 4.


Title: Re: Emerson: Rubio+2, Burr+4, Heck+4, Feingold+5, Portman+14
Post by: Heisenberg on October 29, 2016, 11:44:26 pm
Emerson sucks but these actually look believable except for NV which I suspect a lot of pollsters are having trouble with.

It would be a huge disappointment if Burr won by 4.
It would be really great if North Carolinians woke up and started to #FeelTheBurr.