Talk Elections

Oct. 21-26

Clinton 47
Trump 43
Johnson 7
Stein 3

http://www.craciunresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Press-Release_Presidential-Election-2016_Alaska-Survey_Craciun-Research-_102916.pdf

wat

BEAUTIFUL! Send Bernie to Anchorage!

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Honestly this isn't a bad idea. Gary Johnson is only at 7% in this poll, which is probably lowballing him, but if Bernie and friends can turn them into Clinton voters, this can actually happen.

Alaska is about to leave Trump out in the cold. Ice, Ice, baby.

OH MY GOD!!!

Awesome news!!!!

Prepare for Atlas dems to be crushed when AK inevitably goes to Trump because AK polling is bad :/

Alaska may end up being the biggest surprise on the night.

Why would they be crushed after the 300+ Hillary Clinton win?

because it's Atlas lol

It'd be a fun feather in the cap, but I don't see it flipping until I see more....which we won't.

Alaska polls were actually pretty good in 2014 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2014/senate/ak/alaska_senate_sullivan_vs_begich-3658.html) while polls across the rest of the country were wrong all over the place. I'm not saying this will for sure be accurate, because I've never heard of this pollster, but Alaska's trended D for the past 3 elections for a reason.

Is this a Romanian firm? Craciun means Christman in Romanian.

At least Hillary is pretty vanilla compared to Trump. :)

The Gender Gap is at levels not experienced in the recent past with women supporting Clinton by a margin of 17% (55% to 38% respectively).  Further impacting the race is the unprecedented endorsement of Clinton by the Alaska Federation of Natives board.  In the rural North and Northwest regions of the State, the poll shows Clinton is beating Trump by a margin of almost 5:1 (74% to 15%).   The poll may also shed light on who the 18% still undecided voters may pick. “If you look at non-partisan voters, Secretary Clinton is winning by a margin of 15 points.  That may give you a sense of how the undecided voters will lean on Election Day,” according to pollster Jean Craciun.   Craciun Research has been one of the premier political, non-partisan polling and strategy firms in the Northwest for the last 30 years.

It is called Craciun because of the surname of the CEO. ;)

This firm was Lisa Murkowski's internal pollster in 2010 (http://www.craciunresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Press-Release_Presidential-Election-2016_Alaska-Survey_Craciun-Research-_102916.pdf).

Also, the results before they pushed undecideds (http://www.craciunresearch.com/clinton-leads-trump-by-4-pts-in-alaska/) were:

Clinton 36%
Trump 33%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%
Undecided 18%

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Never heard of this pollster, but it definitely seems like something is up in Alaska.

If they were Murkowski's internal pollster, presumably they know how to poll the state.  Good news! 

Alaska's been a state I've had my eye on for a while, glad to see it in play.

I hope Native Americans, latinos and Mormons will embarrass Trump so badly in this election. :P Throw in Asians, blacks and women too, for good measure. ;)

Great poll!

Let's keep it up!

Obama was up in a lot of Alaska polling in 2008 before McCain had picked Palin as his VP.

I can see Trump losing every state in the country except New Hampshire and seeing the forum go into meltdown.

I do believe that I made a "Crazy Prediction" of Alaska flipping to Clinton this year....

At this point, I am seriously thinking of moving Alaska into a "Tossup" (Trump) status on my prediction map.

I believe that it is entirely possible that loggers and fishermen, of my fellow Pacific-Northwest state could well combine with the historically Democratic voters of Juneau and the peninsula.

Throw in Anchorage swinging hard-D, suppressed Rep turnout in Mat-Su, add on a mix of 1st Nation communities, and also my personal theory that Trump's comments about "Taking Iraqi Oil" are hitting him hard in the Oil Patch, this scenario is not totally unfeasible.

beautiful, wonderful, high energy alaska

Wow. This group was supposedly Lisa Murkowski's internal pollster in 2010 so this is not their first trip around the block in AK

Didn't I say Alaska was gonna be the sleeper state?

This could be the reason:

http://www.nativefederation.org/afn-endorses-presidential-candidate-hillary-clinton/

The Native American population is growing in AK while the white population is decreasing

I now have more respect for the state of Alaska and its people.

Wow. I'll believe it when I see it, but still amazing.

I'd love this, But I think it's too good to be true.

I can see Natives and Mormons going to great lengths to humiliate Trump and make it a nightmare for him to govern beyond the Mississippi/Missouri if he makes it.

I suspect that Trump's Russian connections aren't playing too well in a state where "People can see Russia from their backyard" not to mention Russian Petro undercutting domestic American Oil production, Russian ships illegally strip-mining the fishing grounds of US territorial waters, in a state heavily dependent on the fishing industry, etc....

Alaskans are not huge fans of foreign countries, and Russia in particular, interfering in an economy heavily based upon natural resources (Fishing, Logging, Oil) and Trump is a very unusual Republican that on the one hand espouses protecting American jobs and resources, but on the other hand, is the worst kind of Republican when it comes to selling those same jobs "down the river" or even potentially worse caving into to Russia, in a state where even in the dying days of the USSR there were regular naval and air incidents and provocations that could potentially have created a major conflict between the two Super Powers of the Cold War.

Just in case some of y'all and youngins' on the forum never heard this classic Johnny Horton song from the 1950s...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSt0NEESrUA&spfreload=10

Pretty poor showing for Gary.

But yeah... it's a poll of Alaska... so who knows...

Alaska polling is skewed towards dems. But it would be great to see Trump defending Alaska , Arizona and  Georgia

I still think Trump will win Alaska.

Meanwhile, Trump is off to campaign in NM.

Wasn't Pence there last week?  Wtf are they thinking

Maybe, maybe not.
It would be nice though.
But I don't see it flipping either.
We will know the day after the election. To be continued.
(If the election is close in Alaska, we may not know for a number of days, actually.)

ALASKA!

The weird thing with Alaska is that a large majority of votes are actually cast on ED.

So, for example if early returns show Clinton wining big time it could play both ways in terms of both Democratic and Republican turnout.

So we have a state that is 1-2 time zones out from the West Coast that typically locals feel like their vote doesn't matter when an outcome is already decided, how will this actually play out on ED?

Will it benefit Trump/Clinton or be a total wash when it comes to Alaskans voting in a Pres Election, with no major statewide candidates and ballot measures to spark turnout???

There is an interesting Senate race there, although I think pretty much everyone agrees Murkowski is headed for a comfortable re-election.

538 adjusted this to C+1

Swing state Alaska!

That's only on nowcast. Polls plus and polls only both have it at Clinton +2.

Why is the poll adjustment a function of the model they apply?

Are they using their own modeling to assess the polls?

If so, that's some questionably circular logic...

don't know if this poll is credible but as we all know, alaska is trending Dem for quite some time.

Amazing if this happens.  This is what we need--increase the presence of "blue state" people to red states by in-migration and higher birth rates.  This way, we can really put places like Alaska, the Dakotas, and Montana--that's 8 Senate seats right there.  It's our form of gerrymandering!

... getting ahead of ourselves a little bit here.

You're one to talk recently.

Huh? I've been one of the most cautious Hillary supporters.

In the last 48 hours, you've been way ahead of yourself in running from the sky falling. Doesn't mean what you pointed out isn't true--the "blue wave" demo predictions have gotten a bit crazy.

I'm risk-averse, which means I tend to pay more attention to the downside than the upside. Which is the exact opposite of what the other poster was doing.

Methinks a Begich-esque loss for Hillary is most likely now.

But she is considered a total Maverick, although with slightly less gravitas than former Senator Ernest Gruening, who was one of two Senators (The other being Oregonians much beloved Mark Hatfield) to vote against the Gulf of Tonkin resolution that created an authorization of War in Vietnam, where the lies of the LBJ administration is now historical evidence.

Murkowski won an election as independent after losing against a total Tea-Bagger, and the voters of her state feel that she represents their statewide interests...

So yes... agreed that she wins comfortably, while the state runs close at the Presidential level...

Out here in the PacNW we like our Senators to have a spine and buck party lines on principle, but Trump is viewed on a completely separate level. :)

Perhaps this is Alaska's way of apologizing to us for giving us you know who.

Or maybe giving us a potential VP Palin, which I think is where you're going with all this.... ;)

Polling out of Alaska is notoriously bad ...

#HISTORICLANDSLIDE

Pretty amazing that the chances of Hillary winning Alaska & Texas is bigger than the chances of Trump winning Virginia

Honestly, I don't think so. As much as I like it to be true.

Btw, has Gov. Walker endorsed yet?

I don't expect AK to go Dem, BUT I don't think we can rely purely on what should happen in a normal election.

How many Democrats were polled compared to Republicans in this sample?

I know I said this before, but I think a lot of bad polling in Alaska has had to do with long-time incumbents outperforming the polls (namely Ted Stevens and Don Young). I'm not sure the polling has been that beyond that.

Democrats have done fairly well in Alaska within the past 10 years. Mark Begich was elected in 2008, defeating an institution of Alaska politics (Ted Stevens). If took a wave in 2014 to take him out, and only barely then. Democrats once reached parity in the Alaska Senate and got very close in the Alaska House. And if you recall, before her national prominence, Sarah Palin was quite popular on both sides (before she fully joined the Fox News types). I remembering seeing Sarah Palin on the news once or twice shortly after her election and I thought she was a pretty compelling figure at the time (this was way before McCain chose her as his running mate). If it wasn't for her, Democrats probably would have won the Governorship in 2006 and Obama could have possibly even won the state in 2008.

I agree with all of this except Obama would've lost there in 2008.

There won't be any Trail of Tears after this election, that's for sure. ;) Or if there will, it'll be a trail of tears going up the escalator in Trump Tower. :P

True. Alaska is a tough state to poll because of its ethnic and regional divides. See also Texas, or maybe California if it were close.

This pollster seems to take regional and ethnic divides seriously.

Except for the presence of oil as a dominant driver of the economy, Alaska would seem to have much more in common with other states on the West Coast. 

Trump is due for a popular vote whooping nationwide. The close margins in all these Republican states are going to shrink his vote total and it's going to be a beautiful gap if third parties underperform nationally.

So Hillary might be up even higher?!? :o

SENSATIONAL!!!  Get Bernie on the plane, pronto!

Mods please IP check.

inuits for hillary!

nate's take:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/792769671808356352

I'm kind of surprised they didn't poll the Senate election, where Joe Miller and the Democrat someguy again battle for second place.

polLOL.