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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: heatcharger on October 30, 2016, 07:04:13 am



Title: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: heatcharger on October 30, 2016, 07:04:13 am
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/10/30/upshot/florida-poll.html

Trump 46%
Clinton 42%


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 07:05:55 am
Hmmm - interesting.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: dspNY on October 30, 2016, 07:07:55 am
That's not good at all (their modeling is good). However they got an 11 point divergence between NC and FL which is very weird


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Gass3268 on October 30, 2016, 07:08:50 am
Yikes, this is not good


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: heatcharger on October 30, 2016, 07:09:29 am
Quote
Clinton would have actually led in The Upshotís survey if it, like most others, didnít weight by party registration.

One possibility is that the public polls are understating Mr. Trumpís support because registered Republicans arenít answering the telephone.

I would love to write that this was the only poll capturing the ďhiddenĒ Trump vote. And I would note that the Selzer/Bloomberg poll of Florida also happens to be weighted by party registration.

But based on my reporting, this is probably not whatís going on. Private pollsters are conducting surveys using similar methods, and theyíre not seeing this. And after all, our poll found that registered Republicans were extremely likely to indicate their support for Mr. Trump ó not exactly the shy Trump voter.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Tender Branson on October 30, 2016, 07:10:07 am
But the Hillary supporters told me she has it "in the bag" ...


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 07:10:14 am
It is real...


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 07:10:54 am
That's not good at all (their modeling is good). However they got an 11 point divergence between NC and FL which is very weird

It's funny that the commentary around this, whilst arguing the numbers are possible, is very quick pour cold water as this being definitive.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 07:11:06 am
Hmmm - interesting.

Explain ::)


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: LimoLiberal on October 30, 2016, 07:12:10 am
Wow... the race looks like it really is getting closer.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 07:14:19 am
It is pre-Weiner-gate poll. Junk! :D


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 07:19:32 am
4-way: T+4
Trump  46%
Clinton 42%
Johnson 4%

2-way: T+3
Trump  48%
Clinton 45%

Senate: R+9
Rubio    51%
Murphy 42%


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 07:21:39 am
Hmmm - interesting.

Explain ::)

Hmmm. No. :)


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 30, 2016, 07:22:09 am
We've got an NBC poll of Florida coming in 39 minutes so i'll wait.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 07:22:34 am
Hmmm - interesting.

Explain ::)

Hmmm. No. :)

Knew it ::)


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 07:23:06 am
We've got an NBC poll of Florida coming in 39 minutes so i'll wait.
And NC



Quote
Heads up: New NBC/WSJ/Marist polls of FL and NC will be released at 9am ET


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Eraserhead on October 30, 2016, 07:23:58 am
Eek.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 30, 2016, 07:24:58 am
Something seems off though when their model is getting such wildly diffrent results from NC and FL.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 07:26:28 am
Something seems off though when their model is getting such wildly diffrent results from NC and FL.

NC is off ::)


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 07:32:21 am
Something seems off though when their model is getting such wildly diffrent results from NC and FL.

Honestly, the minority support for Trump do seem very generous. We'll see.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Bernie 2020 on October 30, 2016, 07:34:12 am
I must say I did not expect this....


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 30, 2016, 07:37:41 am
I kinda figured Selzer was up to something.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: afleitch on October 30, 2016, 07:38:01 am
Something seems off though when their model is getting such wildly diffrent results from NC and FL.

Honestly, the minority support for Trump do seem very generous. We'll see.

Latino Decisions have it 63-23 amongst Latinos. This poll is 59-30 but also shows a large swing back to Trump amongst Cubans. Might be tied to the Senate race.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 30, 2016, 07:40:26 am
She doesnt need Florida but I want her to win it.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 07:49:46 am
Intresting...

Quote
Mr. Trumpís consolidation of Republican-leaning voters is a trend in national surveys, and it comes alongside a corresponding decline in the number of supporters for Gary Johnson, the Libertarian candidate, who received just 4 percent of the vote in our survey ó the lowest of any Upshot/Siena poll. Republicans have been likelier than Democrats to support Mr. Johnson in most of our polls.



Whites are coming home?

Quote
Even college-educated white voters, who have been skeptical of Mr. Trump nationwide, are showing less skepticism in Florida. He has a lead of 51 percent to 35 percent among those voters in our survey.

Clinton weakness among white working-class Democrats
Mr. Trump leads among white voters without a college degree by an impressive margin of 63 percent to 24 percent. Heís so strong that Mrs. Clinton has just 55 percent of the vote among white registered Democrats without a degree, compared with Mr. Trumpís 32 percent.


Title: FL: Siena Research Institute: Trump with Slight Lead in Florida
Post by: Dave Leip on October 30, 2016, 07:52:45 am
New Poll: Florida President by Siena Research Institute on 2016-10-27 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220161027079)

Summary: D: 42%, R: 46%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/trump-takes-four-point-lead-over-clinton-46-42)


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on October 30, 2016, 07:58:18 am
Hmmm... perhaps registered Republicans are lying about their registration?


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 08:15:09 am
Hmmm... perhaps registered Republicans are lying about their registration?
Siena/Upshot use a voter file. So they know voters' registrations. As I understood.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Castro on October 30, 2016, 08:25:57 am
IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 30, 2016, 08:31:38 am
IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.

That's correct. They use voter registration file so it won't pick up the most recently registered voters.

But nonetheless, 4 point lead is huge.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 30, 2016, 09:07:01 am
If we're counting Upshot as gospel (and I do trust their model a good deal), then NC is just as much a lock for Clinton.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 09:56:41 am
Never Trump Hispanics are coming home. Grand!


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 09:59:42 am
Next thing is Ana Navarro voting Trump.
And next thing after that - Torie voting Trump. :)


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: swf541 on October 30, 2016, 10:01:20 am
Pretty obvious outlier


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Kempros on October 30, 2016, 10:30:10 am
This could be very well true as Hill has received some really bad publicity in the last few days.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Maxwell on October 30, 2016, 10:31:54 am
Pretty obvious outlier

I think I agree - not even Gravis is showing a Trump lead in Florida.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: HillOfANight on October 30, 2016, 10:33:59 am
IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.

That's correct. They use voter registration file so it won't pick up the most recently registered voters.

But nonetheless, 4 point lead is huge.

That should be a negligible effect though. The biggest difference in this poll is that it weights to party registration, which it notes, lots of other pollster don't. Remains to be seen how accurate this will turn out.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 10:35:51 am
This could be very well true as Hill has received some really bad publicity in the last few days.

IDK, what type of bad publicity you are talking about but this poll was coducted    OCT. 25-27.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 10:39:21 am
IIRC, Cohn mentioned one of the downsides of this type of polling is that it fails to pick up on new registrants, which would miss a recent surge in Hispanics registration. That alone probably wouldn't yield a Trump +4 lead though.

That's correct. They use voter registration file so it won't pick up the most recently registered voters.

But nonetheless, 4 point lead is huge.

That should be a negligible effect though. The biggest difference in this poll is that it weights to party registration, which it notes, lots of other pollster don't. Remains to be seen how accurate this will turn out.

Which could imply that no "movement" occured [yet], and other polls would show the same results if weighted "properly". If this method is accurate and noice didn't cause it etc.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Seriously? on October 30, 2016, 10:56:15 am
I must say I did not expect this....
I did. Trump is somehow still ahead in the Early vote after almost a week. The underlying model of a lot of these other polls does not look right.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Ozymandias on October 30, 2016, 11:01:36 am
I did. Trump is somehow still ahead in the Early vote after almost a week. The underlying model of a lot of these other polls does not look right.

Did they mention an exact number for their early voter subsample?  I didn't see it in the article.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Seriously? on October 30, 2016, 11:08:19 am
I did. Trump is somehow still ahead in the Early vote after almost a week. The underlying model of a lot of these other polls does not look right.

Did they mention an exact number for their early voter subsample?  I didn't see it in the article.
I havent deep delved into that, but that's definitely a point of calibration. They do have the ultimate poll at R+2.

It's roughly about even at this point in time. I think Trump has a 30K lead as of yesterday.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL/WI on October 30, 2016, 11:26:48 am
Definitely seems R-friendly. I doubt that FL will trend strongly R this year. In fact, it's a prime candidate to trend D.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on October 30, 2016, 11:52:43 am
ok what the f**k


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Hammy on October 30, 2016, 12:06:50 pm
I'm regretting ignoring my gut feeling and instinct (and everything I've been saying in posts) and putting Florida in the D column on my official prediction.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 30, 2016, 12:08:24 pm
I'm regretting ignoring my gut feeling and instinct (and everything I've been saying in posts) and putting Florida in the D column on my official prediction.
ok what the f**k
This could be very well true as Hill has received some really bad publicity in the last few days.

guys


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Maxwell on October 30, 2016, 12:09:30 pm
I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Devils30 on October 30, 2016, 12:11:28 pm
GOP still has some room to grow here with midwestern working class transplants. Trump's NC problem is that Romney maxed out the white non-college vote in 2012.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Castro on October 30, 2016, 12:13:40 pm
This is what we get for complaining about all the C+4 polls out of Florida.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 12:19:39 pm
I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.

No. Hispanics are coming home.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 12:27:01 pm
I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.

No. Hispanics are coming home.


In fact, no. Whites are coming home.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 30, 2016, 12:30:48 pm
Florida's lost, world's ending, Clinton stands no chance, we're finished. :P

(
Img
)


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Seriously? on October 30, 2016, 12:52:24 pm
I just don't understand where a Trump lead would come from is all - hispanics are turning against him, and there hasn't been any polling showing Trump doing any better than Romney with white voters.
Look at the early vote numbers. Obviously, things could significantly change today since it's likely to be the heaviest pro-D day with all the church-sponsored stuff, but Trump slightly ahead between absentees and early vote. Unless this somehow changes over the next few days, you're looking at an R+ electorate in Florida, which favors Trump.

Republicans traditionally vote on Election Day there. Democrats use their padded lead to stave off any Republican advance.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Foucaulf on October 30, 2016, 12:53:00 pm
Okay, everyone calm down (including the Trump supporters). Consider the following from the poll write up:

Quote
One of the biggest questions in political survey research is partisan nonresponse ó the possibility that Democrats or Republicans are more or less likely to respond to polls... Most public polls donít have many ways to deal with it.

In our survey, registered Democrats were much likelier to respond than Republicans. Registered Democrats had an eight-point registration advantage in our unweighted sample, even though it was representative by other measures.

Mrs. Clinton would have actually led in The Upshotís survey if it, like most others, didnít weight by party registration. [ I assume this could've been a Clinton +1]

Recall a previous Upshot feature where different pollsters were given the same Florida dataset (http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/09/20/upshot/the-error-the-polling-world-rarely-talks-about.html) and calculated the margin. The two pollsters weighing on party registration predicted 2-4 points higher votes for Trump relative to the one who didn't, holding likely voter screens equal.

The very good writeup also mentions two possible poll biases toward Trump:
- Oversampling of Republicans who support Trump rather than staying home, since weighing was done on party registration.
- The usual likely voter screen critique. Specifically, the voter screen may have worked against minorities sampled in the poll: if Latino or Black voters don't respond that they're very likely to vote, the Cuban-Americans crowd out other votes.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Ebsy on October 30, 2016, 01:19:51 pm
I will say about Florida, Trump has been spending an insane amount of time campaigning there, to the detriment of his campaign elsewhere. The presence of a candidate in a state can temporarily impact polling.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 01:23:10 pm
I will say about Florida, Trump has been spending an insane amount of time campaigning there, to the detriment of his campaign elsewhere. The presence of a candidate in a state can temporarily impact polling.

Florida is a must win state for Trump.




Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 01:25:00 pm
I think something is happening that is unique to Florida.  Early voting shows insane turnout in the retiree counties, basically even with the total 2012 early vote already.  She needs a ton of crossover from Cuban R's to stay in this.

Cubans are coming home to Trump.
That's pretty clear.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: OneJ on October 30, 2016, 01:25:40 pm
Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 01:27:32 pm
Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

OK. We just need to wait 9 more days and see for sure.

I'm not saying Trump will win Florida by a big margin. I think the best he can hope for is a 1-2% win.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: dspNY on October 30, 2016, 01:28:22 pm
Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

OK. We just need to wait 9 more days and see for sure.

I'm not saying Trump will win Florida by a big margin. I think the best he can hope for is a 1-2% win.


I think this is the reasonable best case scenario for Trump in FL


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 30, 2016, 01:55:54 pm
Ugggg.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 30, 2016, 02:55:26 pm
yeah, trump can win FL.

and if he is not, we won't be able to see it before election day.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: HillOfANight on October 30, 2016, 02:59:35 pm
I think something is happening that is unique to Florida.  Early voting shows insane turnout in the retiree counties, basically even with the total 2012 early vote already.  She needs a ton of crossover from Cuban R's to stay in this.

Is it possible turnout taps out eventually? Is there evidence registration has surged there?


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 30, 2016, 03:14:29 pm
Surprisingly good poll for Trump, especially given the fact that they showed very strong numbers for Clinton in PA and especially NC. FL is a pure Tossup at this point, but Trump needs more than just FL, obviously. NC doesn't look good for him, either.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Ebsy on October 30, 2016, 04:32:01 pm
I think in this case, Cohn's Likely Voter model isn't going to fare so well when the votes are counted.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Seriously? on October 30, 2016, 05:26:26 pm
I think in this case, Cohn's Likely Voter model isn't going to fare so well when the votes are counted.
Party Reg, he has it at D+1. The Early Vote right favors the Republicans and Republicans traditionally show up on election day in Florida.  Obviously, we'll have a lot more color after today, traditionally one of the biggest D days in the Early vote cycle.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: NOVA Green on October 30, 2016, 05:57:14 pm
I think we'll all need to reexamine some of these Southern States once the Souls to the Polls numbers kick in tomorrow and SoS sites report the numbers.

I'm not going to geek out just because of a few polls, although data points appear to be converging that potentially Clinton's margins in NC could well outperform her FL margins.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Wade McDaniel on October 30, 2016, 08:11:19 pm
If things weren't bad enough for Democrats, these polls were taken before the FBI reopened investigation.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Ebsy on October 30, 2016, 11:59:07 pm
If things weren't bad enough for Democrats, these polls were taken before the FBI reopened investigation.
Thanks for that hard hitting analysis.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Neolibs Are The New McCarthyists on October 31, 2016, 12:18:42 am
FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard on October 31, 2016, 12:22:55 am
FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
Has gotta be a concern troll.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Neolibs Are The New McCarthyists on October 31, 2016, 12:23:55 am
FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
Has gotta be a concern troll.

The ignore button is right there.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard on October 31, 2016, 12:25:17 am
FL was always going to be a Trump state, he always got his highest % there, sometimes polling as high as 47-49%.
Has gotta be a concern troll.

The ignore button is right there.
I have no need for a safe space.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Vosem on October 31, 2016, 12:37:21 am
Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).

OK. We just need to wait 9 more days and see for sure.

I'm not saying Trump will win Florida by a big margin. I think the best he can hope for is a 1-2% win.


Ljube, Cubans are not coming home to Trump. What Trump may be doing, if he is winning in Florida, is overperforming with older, formerly Democratic-voting whites. There are business organizations in Miami that have endorsed every Republican nominee since the 1960s, including Goldwater, and they have uniformly backed Hillary Clinton in this election. It isn't happening.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Seriously? on October 31, 2016, 06:47:05 am
Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Brittain33 on October 31, 2016, 06:52:34 am
Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.

While all this is true, Trump is not a "generic R" for African-Americans giving his birtherist smearing of Obama over the last several years and his record of discrimination in housing.


Title: Re: FL-Upshot/Siena: Trump +4
Post by: Cruzcrew on October 31, 2016, 06:54:50 am
Tender and all of these Trump supporters need calm down. There is no way Trump will get 11% of the Black vote (You can only dream). Also, Trump is doing somewhat worse among Latinos than the 59-30 margin obviously.

Stop it. Hillary is winning FL (albeit a bit close).
I don't know why you don't think 11% of the black vote is attainable in an election where the Democrat candidate is white. Traditionally, the Republican share of the black vote is somewhere between 8-12%. With Obama not running, you'd think there'd be a return to the mean.

What might be happening is reduced democratic AA turnout with Obama off the ballot to the tune of 1-2 percentage points of the electorate back to normal levels when GOP candidates traditionally got about 10% of the AA vote. But Trump is a pretty bad fit for them so I'd expect him to get about 6% of the AA vote with reduced turnout.