Title: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: dspNY on October 30, 2016, 08:03:51 AM
FL: Clinton 45, Trump 44, Johnson 5, Stein 2 (4-way)
Tied at 46 (2-way)
NC: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 8 (4-way)
Clinton 50, Trump 44 (2-way)
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246
Tied at 46 (2-way)
NC: Clinton 47, Trump 41, Johnson 8 (4-way)
Clinton 50, Trump 44 (2-way)
http://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 30, 2016, 08:04:43 AM
Florida is concerning, but Clinton up 6 points in North Carolina might be too much for Trump to overcome before election day. That seems to validate Nate Cohen's NC model that Clinton is currently up 6.3% based on the early vote.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on October 30, 2016, 08:05:03 AM
Something is definitely happening in Florida
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 30, 2016, 08:05:31 AM
Gird your loins ladies, Florida is gonna be close. Guess NC is lean D.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: SunSt0rm on October 30, 2016, 08:05:39 AM
wow, more evidence that NC might vote left of Florida
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Rand on October 30, 2016, 08:05:59 AM
Good thing she can afford to lose Florida if she wins North Carolina.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 08:06:34 AM
Good polls for Hillary. Intresting that Johnson is getting 8% in NC :)
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: BoAtlantis on October 30, 2016, 08:06:53 AM
I'll forget about FL. I'll take NC.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: dspNY on October 30, 2016, 08:06:59 AM
NC could be a lot more pivotal than anyone thought. It almost looks like another Virginia in some polls. It was an extra state for Obama in 2012 but could be part of a Clinton firewall
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: SunSt0rm on October 30, 2016, 08:07:21 AM
Good thing she can afford to lose Florida if she wins North Carolina.
She can afford to lost both, if her firewall stand
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: windjammer on October 30, 2016, 08:07:40 AM
I'm really surprised tbh, never expected NC to be to the left of FL
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: SunSt0rm on October 30, 2016, 08:08:21 AM
Quote
Among the 36 percent of likely voters in Florida who say they've already voted, Clinton is ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent.
Among those who haven't voted in the Sunshine State, Trump is up, 51 percent to 42 percent.
And Clinton leads by a 61 percent-to-33 percent margin among the 29 percent of North Carolinians who say they've already voted.
Among those who haven't voted in the Sunshine State, Trump is up, 51 percent to 42 percent.
And Clinton leads by a 61 percent-to-33 percent margin among the 29 percent of North Carolinians who say they've already voted.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 30, 2016, 08:08:40 AM
Good polls for Hillary. Intresting that Johnson is getting 8% in NC :)
Libertarians have recently done pretty well in NC.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: dspNY on October 30, 2016, 08:09:10 AM
I'm really surprised tbh, never expected NC to be to the left of FL
NC is behaving a lot like Virginia. Similar trends with lots of college-educated whites and a different type of economy (more service and research based). From what I've heard, Wake County is a disaster for Trump and if he gets crushed there, he can't win statewide
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 08:09:15 AM
I'm really surprised tbh, never expected NC to be to the left of FL
Yeah, by 8% if you average NC and FL polls by Marist and Siena. Oh!
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 30, 2016, 08:09:24 AM
Quote
Among the 36 percent of likely voters in Florida who say they've already voted, Clinton is ahead, 54 percent to 37 percent.
Among those who haven't voted in the Sunshine State, Trump is up, 51 percent to 42 percent.
Among those who haven't voted in the Sunshine State, Trump is up, 51 percent to 42 percent.
I want to make sense of this and similar results in NC without being overconfident in Clinton's chances. What accounts for this?
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 08:10:35 AM
Good polls for Hillary. Intresting that Johnson is getting 8% in NC :)
Libertarians have recently done pretty well in NC.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Person Man on October 30, 2016, 08:15:32 AM
Looks like North Carolina ist in d/ie/as/er frieval?
I'll definitely take 288 EVs. Looks like Trump might his way to a 2004-style result. Though I think Republicans haven't improved yet in Nevada and they need to a lot so maybe 294 votes with Florida deciding between a 2012 and a 2004-like result?
I'll definitely take 288 EVs. Looks like Trump might his way to a 2004-style result. Though I think Republicans haven't improved yet in Nevada and they need to a lot so maybe 294 votes with Florida deciding between a 2012 and a 2004-like result?
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Mehmentum on October 30, 2016, 08:15:33 AM
So it looks like NC has solidified for Clinton, while Florida is now back to a pure tossup.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: dspNY on October 30, 2016, 08:16:01 AM
HB2 has to be a hurricane-force headwind against the GOP in NC right now for NC to be voting 5-6 points to the left of FL
Early vote subsamples:
In FL, 36% of voters have already voted and Clinton is winning them 54-37. Trump is winning those who haven't voted yet 51-42. That's significant because Clinton is banking her vote and giving herself a better chance.
In NC, 29% of voters have already voted and Clinton is winning them 61-33. To make up these deficits, Trump must have a serious ground game on 11/8
Early vote subsamples:
In FL, 36% of voters have already voted and Clinton is winning them 54-37. Trump is winning those who haven't voted yet 51-42. That's significant because Clinton is banking her vote and giving herself a better chance.
In NC, 29% of voters have already voted and Clinton is winning them 61-33. To make up these deficits, Trump must have a serious ground game on 11/8
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: heatcharger on October 30, 2016, 08:16:45 AM
Here's Trump's path to victory without NC:
(
)
Safe to say it's ridiculous.
(
Safe to say it's ridiculous.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 08:17:40 AM
So it looks like NC is solidify for Clinton, while Florida is now back to a pure tossup.
Yeah, NC is sort of must win for Trump. Hopefully, Weiner gate will drive Republicans from Johnson/undecided voters back to Trump.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 30, 2016, 08:20:45 AM
Not great to see such close polls recently in Florida (since I want a sizeable victory), but North Carolina is great news to people that only care about the big win. Without NC, there is no realistic path for Trump to win. He's not winning PA, he's not winning CO, and he's not winning MI.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 30, 2016, 08:22:08 AM
So it looks like NC is solidify for Clinton, while Florida is now back to a pure tossup.
Yeah, NC is sort of must win for Trump. Hopefully, Weiner gate will drive Republicans from Johnson/undecided voters back to Trump.
Spoilers: It wont.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Brittain33 on October 30, 2016, 08:22:54 AM
To make up these deficits, Trump must have a serious ground game on 11/8
Does anyone think this is going to appear?
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Dutch Conservative on October 30, 2016, 08:23:22 AM
Here's Trump's path to victory without NC:
()
Safe to say it's ridiculous.
(
Safe to say it's ridiculous.
He doesnt need Wisconsin and Maine 2nd when he wins Nevada. Nev+Fl+PA = 270.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Terry the Fat Shark on October 30, 2016, 08:25:13 AM
@NateSilver538
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Fusionmunster on October 30, 2016, 08:26:36 AM
@NateSilver538
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
Yes it is. Hillary aint loosing PA or NH.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 30, 2016, 08:27:31 AM
@NateSilver538
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
Uh no it is crazy to think Trump could win PA. Silver is a big hot mess.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Gustaf on October 30, 2016, 08:27:44 AM
@NateSilver538
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
It's like 95% crazy though. Her leads in both PA and NH have been solid.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Gass3268 on October 30, 2016, 08:27:57 AM
Quote
Nate Cohn @Nate_Cohn 2m2 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
NC is a really tough state to fall behind in at this stage. Big early vote. Fewer persuadable voters. Hard to mount a comeback.
NC is a really tough state to fall behind in at this stage. Big early vote. Fewer persuadable voters. Hard to mount a comeback.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: windjammer on October 30, 2016, 08:28:27 AM
@NateSilver538
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Person Man on October 30, 2016, 08:33:13 AM
@NateSilver538
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
Not totally crazy to think Clinton could win NV and NC but lose PA, FL and NH (and OH and IA). That would yield an... interesting map.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/Qxd2b
It would then come down to CD-2 on whether Hillary wins on Congress gets to rig for Trump.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: politicallefty on October 30, 2016, 08:34:17 AM
NC could be a lot more pivotal than anyone thought. It almost looks like another Virginia in some polls. It was an extra state for Obama in 2012 but could be part of a Clinton firewall
I'm starting to think North Carolina is gone for Republicans this election. There are no indicators that suggest they're going to pull it out like in 2012. The state's significance extends beyond its 15 EVs. The defeats of Burr and McCrory would be massive victories for NC Democrats.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 30, 2016, 08:59:09 AM
Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Tender Branson on October 30, 2016, 09:02:08 AM
Hmm. NC is polled quite a lot recently.
Hillary seems to be ahead but I have a gut feeling that this will still be really tight in the end.
Hillary seems to be ahead but I have a gut feeling that this will still be really tight in the end.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 09:06:55 AM
Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.
As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: heatcharger on October 30, 2016, 09:26:06 AM
Here's Trump's path to victory without NC:
()
Safe to say it's ridiculous.
(
Safe to say it's ridiculous.
He doesnt need Wisconsin and Maine 2nd when he wins Nevada. Nev+Fl+PA = 270.
Riiiight.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Person Man on October 30, 2016, 09:29:01 AM
Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.
As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: The Other Castro on October 30, 2016, 09:34:49 AM
Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.
As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.
It'd be interesting to see how an inconsequential recount works in FL.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 09:39:39 AM
Early vote numbers looks fine in FL so far, she'll have ground game advantage with a hard to capture Latino vote, she's led like 10 polls in a row in FL, but she gets a T+4 and tied H2H and she's sunk? Y'all are out of your damn minds.
As all Nates are saying. Polls >>>>> early voting. So combined models (Upshot in NC) are probably best.
Basically Trump has between 9% (Upshot) and 22% (538) to win before FBI gate is counted in :)
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: indysaff on October 30, 2016, 09:44:08 AM
Ew
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 09:53:41 AM
Don't forget also, that both Siena and Marist has D-house effect. (You never forget to mention it when it is Quinnipiac's polls) ::)
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Maxwell on October 30, 2016, 09:56:21 AM
north carolina u wot mate
seriously why is North Carolina going to be Clinton's saving grace? I'm kind of lost here.
unless of course RE-ALIGNMENT, then I'm fine :P
seriously why is North Carolina going to be Clinton's saving grace? I'm kind of lost here.
unless of course RE-ALIGNMENT, then I'm fine :P
Title: FL: Marist College: Close Contest for President in Florida
Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 30, 2016, 10:11:42 AM
New Poll: Florida President by Marist College on 2016-10-26 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220161026008)
Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, U: 2%
Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1030-florida-trump-and-clinton-competitive-north-carolina-clinton-leads-by-6-points/)
Summary: D: 45%, R: 44%, U: 2%
Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1030-florida-trump-and-clinton-competitive-north-carolina-clinton-leads-by-6-points/)
Title: NC: Marist College: Clinton Leads in North Carolina
Post by: ElectionAtlas on October 30, 2016, 10:13:31 AM
New Poll: North Carolina President by Marist College on 2016-10-26 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720161026008)
Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 2%
Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1030-florida-trump-and-clinton-competitive-north-carolina-clinton-leads-by-6-points/)
Summary: D: 47%, R: 41%, U: 2%
Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://maristpoll.marist.edu/1030-florida-trump-and-clinton-competitive-north-carolina-clinton-leads-by-6-points/)
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on October 30, 2016, 10:15:57 AM
Hmm. NC is polled quite a lot recently.
Hillary seems to be ahead but I have a gut feeling that this will still be really tight in the end.
Hillary seems to be ahead but I have a gut feeling that this will still be really tight in the end.
Take your dog sweat to /TheDonald/
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Ronnie on October 30, 2016, 10:26:07 AM
Hillary should just camp out in NC until Election Day, imo. If she wins that state, she can't lose.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 01:44:53 PM
Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 30, 2016, 01:46:24 PM
Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
But given NV early voting, which has been even more favorable for Clinton, this seems very hard to achieve.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 01:49:34 PM
Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
But given NV early voting, which has been even more favorable for Clinton, this seems very hard to achieve.
Indeed. Back to the drawing board.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Ronnie on October 30, 2016, 01:52:22 PM
Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
I think your EV math is off. Hillary would still win if everything you said transpires: http://www.270towin.com/maps/Ld90j
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Ozymandias on October 30, 2016, 01:52:39 PM
Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
But that's not a Trump win-- that only gives him 251 EV.
Trump needs to breach the Clinton 272 EV "freiwall"
And if he loses NC, then he basically has to win either PA or something like CO AND WI
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: GeorgiaModerate on October 30, 2016, 01:52:44 PM
Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
No, that's still only 251 for Trump. He would need PA as well.
(
D: 287
R: 251
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Person Man on October 30, 2016, 01:54:00 PM
Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
But given NV early voting, which has been even more favorable for Clinton, this seems very hard to achieve.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 30, 2016, 01:54:44 PM
Given NC early voting, it seems that the most realistic victory for Trump is:
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
Romney - NC + FL + OH + IA + NV + ME-02
Trump could possibly lose NE-02 in this scenario and even fail to win ME-02 for 269 electoral votes.
But given NV early voting, which has been even more favorable for Clinton, this seems very hard to achieve.
Don't even get me started on how impossible PA is for Trump.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 01:55:20 PM
I forgot to add PA.
Somehow, I am taking PA for granted. :)
Somehow, I am taking PA for granted. :)
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 30, 2016, 02:03:31 PM
I forgot to add PA.
Somehow, I am taking PA for granted. :)
Somehow, I am taking PA for granted. :)
Pffffffffff !
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 02:09:29 PM
I forgot to add PA.
Somehow, I am taking PA for granted. :)
Somehow, I am taking PA for granted. :)
Pffffffffff !
:)
Well, back to the drawing board.
And I need more info before I come up with another Trump win that is actually realistic.
:)
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 30, 2016, 02:16:47 PM
Clinton hasn't trailed in a non-internal poll since September 20. Hard to see how she will lose this thing.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on October 30, 2016, 02:54:25 PM
the point is that trump's natural base will.....maybe this cycle or next cycle...just not be ABLE anymore to win PA. illinois lite.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Cashew on October 30, 2016, 03:16:50 PM
Hopefully this reflects in the state legislature as well.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: IceSpear on October 30, 2016, 03:52:12 PM
Good thing she can afford to lose Florida if she wins North Carolina.
Er, she can afford to lose Florida even if she does lose North Carolina...
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Panda Express on October 30, 2016, 06:45:48 PM
Most people thought Romney was going to win Florida and he was winning in the Florida RCP average at the end. But Barry O's ground game was enough to pull out a win in the end. Remember, Hilldawg has the same ground game apparatus that Barry O had.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: heatcharger on October 30, 2016, 06:50:44 PM
Does anyone have the link to the crosstabs?
http://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/misc/FLpolls/FL161025/NBC%20News_WSJ_Marist%20Poll_Florida_Tables%20of%20Likely%20Voters_October%2030,%202016.pdf#page=3
Trump getting 36% of the Latino vote... yeah ok.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 06:53:12 PM
Most people thought Romney was going to win Florida and he was winning in the Florida RCP average at the end. But Barry O's ground game was enough to pull out a win in the end. Remember, Hilldawg has the same ground game apparatus that Barry O had.
Actually, I think it's better.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: psychprofessor on October 30, 2016, 06:58:41 PM
Most people thought Romney was going to win Florida and he was winning in the Florida RCP average at the end. But Barry O's ground game was enough to pull out a win in the end. Remember, Hilldawg has the same ground game apparatus that Barry O had.
Can we stop with the Barry O crap? It's insulting.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: NOVA Green on October 30, 2016, 07:11:06 PM
Not too worried about Florida yet....
Seniors and Anglos tend to vote early at the highest numbers.
Both Demographics favor Trump in Florida, where he is clearly leading in both overlapping Demographics, excepting excepting SE FL where Broward and Palm Beach will likely be the exception.
Millennials and Latinos are more likely to vote closer to election day, and less likely to answer the phone from weird numbers, that include polling firms.
Polling is notoriously tricky in Florida, and quite frankly there aren't enough Dem crossover voters left to flip the state, considering that a large majority of first time voters are not in traditionally Republican categories out there.
I know... I know... I know.... "But Trump is now leading in several recent polls of Florida !!!". "Dixiecrats are coming out in droves for Trump".... "Midwest retirees in Tampa- St Pete are swinging hard R", "Cuban-Americans are coming home in Miami-Dade".
All of these statements could well be true, however at this point the EV numbers from FL do not yet appear to suggest a major swing towards Trump, and this state will likely be fairly close on ED but with a potentially narrow Trump win on ED to maybe a C +5 win.
Point is, we can't look at just a handful of recent polls and make broad assumptions at a point where it looks like Clinton's national lead has shrunk from 7-8% to 5-6% over the past two weeks.
The clock is ticking, votes are being cast, and I suspect that actual ED turnout will heavily favor Clinton based upon the new Millennial and Latino voters showing up at the polls for the first time ever.
Seniors and Anglos tend to vote early at the highest numbers.
Both Demographics favor Trump in Florida, where he is clearly leading in both overlapping Demographics, excepting excepting SE FL where Broward and Palm Beach will likely be the exception.
Millennials and Latinos are more likely to vote closer to election day, and less likely to answer the phone from weird numbers, that include polling firms.
Polling is notoriously tricky in Florida, and quite frankly there aren't enough Dem crossover voters left to flip the state, considering that a large majority of first time voters are not in traditionally Republican categories out there.
I know... I know... I know.... "But Trump is now leading in several recent polls of Florida !!!". "Dixiecrats are coming out in droves for Trump".... "Midwest retirees in Tampa- St Pete are swinging hard R", "Cuban-Americans are coming home in Miami-Dade".
All of these statements could well be true, however at this point the EV numbers from FL do not yet appear to suggest a major swing towards Trump, and this state will likely be fairly close on ED but with a potentially narrow Trump win on ED to maybe a C +5 win.
Point is, we can't look at just a handful of recent polls and make broad assumptions at a point where it looks like Clinton's national lead has shrunk from 7-8% to 5-6% over the past two weeks.
The clock is ticking, votes are being cast, and I suspect that actual ED turnout will heavily favor Clinton based upon the new Millennial and Latino voters showing up at the polls for the first time ever.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Panda Express on October 30, 2016, 07:11:36 PM
Most people thought Romney was going to win Florida and he was winning in the Florida RCP average at the end. But Barry O's ground game was enough to pull out a win in the end. Remember, Hilldawg has the same ground game apparatus that Barry O had.
Can we stop with the Barry O crap? It's insulting.
can I refer to him as B. Obama?
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on October 30, 2016, 08:36:01 PM
Most people thought Romney was going to win Florida and he was winning in the Florida RCP average at the end. But Barry O's ground game was enough to pull out a win in the end. Remember, Hilldawg has the same ground game apparatus that Barry O had.
Actually, I think it's better.
A few days ago on the early vote thread I read that the Hispanic vote is making up over 15% of the electorate in Florida...This is up 2% over 2012. Hard to see Hillary losing this state.
Title: Re: NBC/WSJ: Clinton +6/+6 (NC), Clinton +1/4way, Tie/H2H (FL)
Post by: Fmr. Pres. Duke on October 31, 2016, 09:34:12 AM
Hard to see her losing FL if she wins the election, but who really knows what will happen on election day. Trump certainly has a base in Florida and has been hanging around.
I know HRC has Obama's ground game there, but she isn't Obama so I'm not sold she will perform as well or better than he did on election day.
I know HRC has Obama's ground game there, but she isn't Obama so I'm not sold she will perform as well or better than he did on election day.