Talk Elections

Link (https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/10/30/key-battlegrounds-tight-clinton-maintains-eight-po/).

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PA and NC look excellent. The CO numbers are a bit low.

+8 in PA? That's good news.

Colorado still scares me, since I wonder if the potheads will forget to mail in their ballots...

Surprising as it sounds, this is actually a good result for Clinton in CO. YouGov's panel has had C +1 the past two polls.

This is huge news if true:

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Lol so once again the media has hyped up a massive nothing story that nobody actually cares about.

Bennett is only up 5 in Colorado in their Senate poll, so yeah

Yeah, that looks like she'll be fine.

The backfire!!

That's actually really good for Clinton. Not much of a dropoff in independents and 13% of Clinton's base more fired up

Good results for her

Isn't this HIGHEST a Democrat has been in a YouGuv poll in Colorado?

Yes. YouGov had Colorado at Clinton +1 and +2 previously

Oh. Sorry Obama was doing a point or two better in September.
Was doing worse now.

More of them tend to be young. They'll tell pollsters they'll go Johnson but in reality, they'll probably skew a bit more Hillary.

That 21% isn't good.

Does this mean I can confer that Clinton is still leading by at least 5ish points?



Best number here.

Probably. At this point, people are basing their opinions based off which side they've chosen.

At least they used the right pictures this time xD

That's a solid number in PA for Hillary.

The rest seem shakier but they're not nearly as important anyway.

And, as has been noted, these numbers actually represent pretty high numbers for Clinton in Yougovs polling this year. These are........good numbers, you guys.

The best numbers?

PA will likely be narrower in the end.

CO is too low for Clinton (probably up 5-6).

AZ looks about right (Hillary won't win there, it's a dream).

NC should be quite close in the end, like I said in another thread.

And are you basing that off of anything besides your gut? You can't just say something will be close by pointing to another post saying that your gut says so as evidence.

Remember he doesn't like the w(b)itch. 

Don't wrestle with a pig on this one.

Those are some really bad numbers in PA for Clinton. Looks like the email story is having a huge impact if that race is within single digits.

+8 is a bad number? O_o

I'm guessing that's sarcasm.

Obama won PA by 5-6 points in 2012, so YouGov is saying that Clinton is outperforming Obama there

It's SWE, it's sarcasm.

The electorate is virtually locked in

95% of Pennsylvania voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
94% of North Carolina voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
91% of Colorado voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change
90% of Arizona voters said they aren't changing their mind or probably won't change

So PA is safe, and CO and NC need for the Trumpster Fire to win undecideds by YUGE margins. Hillary still needs a big margins in Arizona, just not as big.

Senate polls:

PA: McGinty 44, Toomey 41
NC: Ross 44, Burr 44
CO: Bennet 46, Glenn 41 (LOL)
AZ: McCain 43, Kirkpatrick 38 (LOL)

Yeah. Tender is the biggest fail poster of this cycle.

The way Colorado is going in the early vote the Colorado number looks like a joke, also lol @ North Carolina being among the most secure Dem leads out there, and Pennsylvania is Likely/Safe D at this point, thanks to beautiful wonderful suburbanites!

also ugh Arizona is so damn close.

Obama outpeformed YouGuv in Colorado by 4 and a half points.

CO definitely seems off. Good to see that AZ is at least very close, which means turnout could still tip it to Hillary.

These types of questions, particularly to GOPhers/Non-aligned are kind of pointless because there's no question as to whether you intended to vote for her. Hillary's getting less than 79% of the Indepedent vote, so there's not much to take from that group. To make it clear her base is positively energised by this "scandal" is the key take away.

There's that 45% again!

These polls are better than their own model

AZ 41-49 in the model v 42-44
CO 47-44 v 42-39
NC 48-46 v 48-45
PA 47-47 v 48-40

So on average Clinton does 1 point worse (without CO, 1 point better) and Trump 4 points worse in comparison to their model.

I didn't think it would have any effect, I didn't expect it to actually backfire a bit.

AZ looks promising. If Trump is only leading by 2 in this poll and Hillary is up 70-18 among Latinos (and Trump won't likely grow much among them if at all), then she could seriously win it!

I don't trust these polls. I need all new sample groups each time.

Sample size is only around 300 per state, and the poll was conducted on Friday and Saturday. They sure as hell didn't have a chance to collect meaningful results on Friday, and it takes days for effects to be seen as polls. Give it a week of regular news coverage before trying a victory dance, Reds.