Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 02:04:35 pm



Title: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 02:04:35 pm
http://www.csus.edu/isr/calspeaks/surveys/october%202016%20election%20topline.pdf

OCT. 7-13, 622   LV

61% Hillary Clinton, Democratic Party
25% Donald Trump, Republican Party
4%   Gary Johnson, Libertarian Party
3%   Jill Stein, Green Party
8%   Other/Undecided/Donít Know



Quote
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538  3m3 minutes ago
Clinton's lead in California keeps expanding ó which could yield an Electoral College / popular vote split. http://53eig.ht/2eieaZB

#Atlas      hate
#Clickbait Nate


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Arch on October 30, 2016, 02:05:18 pm
25% in CA, hahaha.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Joshua on October 30, 2016, 02:06:55 pm
Backed up by the GOP vote-by-mail collapse this year.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Buh her emails! on October 30, 2016, 02:08:02 pm
Remember when Trump said California was in play?


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Speaker OneJ on October 30, 2016, 02:08:47 pm
"TRUMP is going to flip California!!!"-StatesPoll


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Maxwell on October 30, 2016, 02:10:27 pm
#failinNate

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Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 02:12:17 pm
Come on.

California is going to be a disaster for Trump.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on October 30, 2016, 02:14:23 pm
If only Trump would win because then they would secede and Trump would support it. This state needs to get out. As bad as it gets.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 30, 2016, 02:14:53 pm
Issa, Knight and Valadao must be sweating like DOGS!


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Maxwell on October 30, 2016, 02:15:54 pm
To Trumps credit:

(Image Link)


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: JA on October 30, 2016, 02:23:58 pm
California proves, yet again, why I was right to make it one of my favorite states. True FF state.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Speed of Sound on October 30, 2016, 02:25:11 pm
Is Nate's stuff really doing so bad that he needs to clickbait like this? What a fall from grace journalistically.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Edgar Suit Larry on October 30, 2016, 02:26:26 pm
California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on October 30, 2016, 02:51:55 pm
Will there be any R's in the CA House delegation in 10 years?

Yes. CA-01 was 57% Romney, CA-04 was 58% Romney, CA-08 was 56% Romney, CA-22 was 57% Romney, CA-23 was 62% Romney, CA-42 was 57% Romney, CA-50 was 60% Romney. All of those are unflippable. CA-45 and CA-48 were 55% Romney and thus are very close to unflippable. But with only these seats going R, the breakdown would be 44-9 D (or 46-7 if CA-45/48 were flipped), which is a pretty significant change from the current 39-14 D breakdown.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: politicallefty on October 30, 2016, 02:58:07 pm
California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.

The population and significance of California is far more than the Baltic states to Russia. With that said, I'm seriously wanting California to declare its independence as a new nation. A new California Republic would be greater than anything California could achieve as a state.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Interlocutor on October 30, 2016, 03:03:56 pm
New county predictions:

(Image Link)


Also, they polled Prop 54 but didn't bother to poll Prop 61?

Ah who cares. Congrats Congressman Applegate!


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: MT Treasurer on October 30, 2016, 03:15:53 pm
And this is why the Electoral College actually helps Trump.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: PresidentSamTilden on October 30, 2016, 03:17:37 pm
Remember when Trump said California was in play?

So dumb. He got less votes WINNING his primary in a landslide than Bernie Sanders got LOSING his. And it wasn't even close.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard on October 30, 2016, 03:19:54 pm
California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.

The population and significance of California is far more than the Baltic states to Russia. With that said, I'm seriously wanting California to declare its independence as a new nation. A new California Republic would be greater than anything California could achieve as a state.
Maybe when people realize how underrepresented they are in the senate?


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: JA on October 30, 2016, 03:34:53 pm
California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.

The population and significance of California is far more than the Baltic states to Russia. With that said, I'm seriously wanting California to declare its independence as a new nation. A new California Republic would be greater than anything California could achieve as a state.
Maybe when people realize how underrepresented they are in the senate?

The fact that a state of nearly 40,000,000 has as many Senators as a state of 600,000 is a testament to how deeply flawed and undemocratic our upper chamber of the legislative branch really is.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 30, 2016, 03:41:08 pm
California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.

The population and significance of California is far more than the Baltic states to Russia. With that said, I'm seriously wanting California to declare its independence as a new nation. A new California Republic would be greater than anything California could achieve as a state.
Maybe when people realize how underrepresented they are in the senate?

The fact that a state of nearly 40,000,000 has as many Senators as a state of 600,000 is a testament to how deeply flawed and undemocratic our upper chamber of the legislative branch really is.

What was the difference back when the constitution was written between the most and least populous states?


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Landslide Andy on October 30, 2016, 03:43:32 pm
And this is why the Electoral College actually helps Trump.

Not to mention the fact that TX will certainly be closer this year, even if Trump still wins it easily.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Alcon on October 30, 2016, 03:50:38 pm
Yet again, I don't understand why Silver is getting so much crap for this.  He was wrong about Trump in the primaries, because he attached too much certainty to the lack of historical precedent for Trump.  It's very hard to calculate "unknown unknowns," and he fessed up to his errors doing so.  

But this isn't a case with "unknown unknowns."  This is the simple mathematical reality that, if Clinton gets a strong swing in California and Texas, that means a race with an even PV may have a very Trump-friendly electoral college make-up.  We're talking hundreds of thousands of votes between those two states.  He's not claiming this is a certainty or even likelihood, but something to consider, and it is.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: ProudModerate2 on October 30, 2016, 03:53:20 pm
I continue to see TV commercials here in California that are pro-trump, vote for trump.
I laugh every time.
Don't get it.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Pro-Life Single Issue Voter on October 30, 2016, 03:58:34 pm
Also, this poll increased Trump's chance of winning on 538's PP model from 22.9 to 23.3%.  I guess it is because there was already no chance for Trump to win CA and it shows that Clinton will be wasting a ton of votes in CA.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on October 30, 2016, 04:16:06 pm
Also, this poll increased Trump's chance of winning on 538's PP model from 22.9 to 23.3%.  I guess it is because there was already no chance for Trump to win CA and it shows that Clinton will be wasting a ton of votes in CA.

And Now-Cast by 0.8% from 21.8% to 22.6%.

Latino vote is distributed in such way that it can be a fun election. CA+TX = ~40% of all hispanics.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard on October 30, 2016, 04:19:18 pm
If this does lead to an EV/PV split in favor of Trump, I expect calls for the next Dem trifecta to pass legislation to split CA and TX will reach a fever pitch.

Republicans did the same with the Nebraska and Dakota Territories back in the day, and for explicitly partisan reasons.
If anything, I expect Texas republican to consider making south Texas a separate state to make the rest of the state safe R for a few more cycles.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard on October 30, 2016, 04:35:50 pm
If this does lead to an EV/PV split in favor of Trump, I expect calls for the next Dem trifecta to pass legislation to split CA and TX will reach a fever pitch.

Republicans did the same with the Nebraska and Dakota Territories back in the day, and for explicitly partisan reasons.
If anything, I expect Texas republican to consider making south Texas a separate state to make the rest of the state safe R for a few more cycles.

Yes, that would be the sweetener, but Democrats need to get San Francisco, L.A., and San Diego states out of the deal.

Also, the South Texas proposal is only viable if most of the new trouble is coming from the Rio Grande, Austin and San Antonio.  If it's massive Dem swings in Houston and Dallas, they will eventually get swamped anyway.  If Dems have any say in the process, a state of South Texas doesn't happen unless West Texas also does.
Yeah I was just speculating. I expect a lot more resistance to carving up their home state than you might think though, even if they have more influence that way.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 07:14:32 pm
And this is why the Electoral College actually helps Trump.

Not to mention the fact that TX will certainly be closer this year, even if Trump still wins it easily.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on October 30, 2016, 07:38:30 pm
7% support for Trump among 18-25 yearolds?!? LOLOLOLOL


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 07:39:18 pm
Jesus, CA really is going to be a blood-bath.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on October 30, 2016, 10:53:06 pm
If Clinton is getting above 60% of the vote in Cali, I don't see how she is under 52-54% in the total PV


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Ljube on October 30, 2016, 11:18:03 pm
If Clinton is getting above 60% of the vote in Cali, I don't see how she is under 52-54% in the total PV

She is behind in swing states.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on October 30, 2016, 11:23:59 pm
If Clinton is getting above 60% of the vote in Cali, I don't see how she is under 52-54% in the total PV

She is behind in swing states.


Like NV, NC, PA, NH, WI, CO and VA?


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: AndyHogan14 on October 30, 2016, 11:48:48 pm
California will be more of an Estonia or Latvia than a Belarus or Kazakhstan when Trump's Nationalistic pull causes the nation to start to fracture like what happened in the 80s in the USSR.

The population and significance of California is far more than the Baltic states to Russia. With that said, I'm seriously wanting California to declare its independence as a new nation. A new California Republic would be greater than anything California could achieve as a state.

I would love for California to seriously consider independence (hell, I'd even fight for independence if Trump wins) because our interests are totally underrepresented in Washington. Just think what we could do if we weren't sending a large percentage of our wealth to the federal government to subsidize small, economically weak states (that tend to hate us anyway)!


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard on October 31, 2016, 01:13:35 am
If Clinton is getting above 60% of the vote in Cali, I don't see how she is under 52-54% in the total PV

She is behind in swing states.

Yes however that is irrelevant as she does not need MO, TX, GA, AZ, IN to win.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Ljube on October 31, 2016, 01:29:16 am
If Clinton is getting above 60% of the vote in Cali, I don't see how she is under 52-54% in the total PV

She is behind in swing states.


Like NV, NC, PA, NH, WI, CO and VA?

Some of them. Specifically NC, NV and possibly VA.
Probably not NH and WI.
Hard to tell about CO and PA.


Title: Re: CA, Sacramento State, Clinton +36 (4-way), OCT. 7-13, 622LV
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on October 31, 2016, 02:51:41 am
If Clinton is getting above 60% of the vote in Cali, I don't see how she is under 52-54% in the total PV

She is behind in swing states.


Like NV, NC, PA, NH, WI, CO and VA?

Some of them. Specifically NC, NV and possibly VA.
Probably not NH and WI.
Hard to tell about CO and PA.


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