Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: MT Treasurer on November 01, 2016, 11:57:42 am



Title: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 01, 2016, 11:57:42 am
Virginia
49% Clinton (D)
45% Trump (R)

Maine
46% Clinton (D)
42% Trump (R)

Illinois
53% Clinton (D)
41% Trump (R)

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_6e2658e719304bde8f4e78f4559ecfa9.pdf


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: ag on November 01, 2016, 11:59:35 am
This would, likely, have Trump gaining a vote in ME.

This is getting to be very bad.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 11:59:40 am
Coming from Emerson, these numbers look right. If VA isn't shaking even with landline only, it isn't shaking at all. How on earth did these dummies not think to break ME down into CDs?


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: WI Is Tilt D on November 01, 2016, 11:59:45 am
You can add a point or two to Hillary in VA, since Emerson is landline only. Looks like it won't fall. MAL is likely not competitive either, but the 2nd district is lean R at this point.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Xing on November 01, 2016, 12:00:27 pm
LOLEmerson


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 12:00:31 pm
This would, likely, have Trump gaining a vote in ME.

This is getting to be very bad.

Emerson is landline only and they didn't poll CDs.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: ExtremeConservative on November 01, 2016, 12:01:33 pm
According to 538, this poll does have Clinton +1 in ME-02, but just +6 in ME-01.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Figueira on November 01, 2016, 12:03:38 pm
They have Clinton+6 in ME1 and Clinton+1 in ME2.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 12:04:22 pm
According to 538, this poll does have Clinton +1 in ME-02, but just +6 in ME-01.

Thanks. I'm not sure where those numbers come from, I can't find them in the presser. But yeah, with the current early voting numbers out of ME-02, tilt-D is more the story than tilt-R, but it should be tightish.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Xing on November 01, 2016, 12:05:15 pm
Clinton +6 in ME-01 is laughable. Emerson is about as junky as they come.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 01, 2016, 12:10:33 pm
According to 538, this poll does have Clinton +1 in ME-02, but just +6 in ME-01.

Correct. Here is the detail :

ME-01
-Clinton  49
-trump  43
-Johnson  4

ME-02 (Rounding makes it actually Clinton +1)
-Clinton  44
-trump  42
-Johnson  6


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Ljube on November 01, 2016, 12:17:02 pm
According to 538, this poll does have Clinton +1 in ME-02, but just +6 in ME-01.

Correct. Here is the detail :

ME-01
-Clinton  49
-trump  43
-Johnson  4

ME-02 (Rounding makes it actually Clinton +1)
-Clinton  44
-trump  42
-Johnson  6


Undecided/refused in ME-02 are shy Trump.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 12:19:20 pm
According to 538, this poll does have Clinton +1 in ME-02, but just +6 in ME-01.

Correct. Here is the detail :

ME-01
-Clinton  49
-trump  43
-Johnson  4

ME-02 (Rounding makes it actually Clinton +1)
-Clinton  44
-trump  42
-Johnson  6


Undecided/refused in ME-02 are shy Trump.


Undecided/refused in ME-02 are shy Clinton.


Hooray! We broke even and learned nothing.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: RFayette on November 01, 2016, 12:19:30 pm
According to 538, this poll does have Clinton +1 in ME-02, but just +6 in ME-01.

The gap between the two districts is almost certainly bigger than this.  I'd interpret Clinton+4 in Maine as an automatic win in the second district for Trump just based on demographics, especially since the district-level sample sizes are smaller and thus have a larger MoE than the topline number.


But it's Emerson, so this poll isn't worth that much anyway.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Eraserhead on November 01, 2016, 12:57:11 pm
I can't take Emerson seriously.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 01, 2016, 01:03:39 pm
add +3 for HRC on every result and we get closer.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 01, 2016, 01:15:04 pm
If I'm correct,IL shows a 6 point swing from last time. So that's something.


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Brittain33 on November 01, 2016, 01:18:14 pm
If I'm correct,IL shows a 6 point swing from last time. So that's something.

That is interesting. IL has both factors for a swing away (depressed AA turnout, home state senator not on the ballot) and for a swing toward (large Latino population + moderate Republicans who supported Romney).


Title: Re: VA/ME/IL-Emerson: Clinton +4 in VA and ME, +12 in IL
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 01, 2016, 01:20:16 pm
Emerson is sh**te, add five points to those totals and your good.

That being said, if Emerson has Trump down in Maine CD-2, he's done.