Talk Elections

The Monmouth University Poll  was conducted by telephone from October 28 to 31, 2016 with 405 Missouri residents likely to vote in the November election.  This sample has a margin of error of ± 4.9 percent.

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_MO_110116/
https://www.monmouth.edu/WorkArea/DownloadAsset.aspx?id=40802212044

Compared to    OCT. 9-11

Trump  52% (+6)
Clinton 38%  (-3)
Johnson  4%   (-1)  
Stein      2%    (-)
Other     1%     (-)
Undecided   4% (-1)

Lol, only 4% changed their mind. O-N-L-Y, lol

Blunt underperforming Trump by 13 points.

That is an absolutely massive lead.  I would be really surprised if he doesn't drag Blunt over the finish line.

Beautiful!! What a movement we have! In spite of the GOP being such a horrible institution, voters see Trump is not part of it! Great!

Gosh, Roy Blunt is such an idiot.

???

SENATE: Blunt 47, Kander 46

There's no way Trump is going to do 5 points better than Romney, which means this poll is great news for Kander...

Why would conservatives be happy that Blunt is underperforming by 13 and could risk the GOP the senate? Remember, there are still very many 'normal/traditional' Republicans and conservatives that aren't red-blooded Trumpists. Blunt's risking the GOP senate hold where it should have never been a problem.

I don't know. I am not a conservative.

Word. Running 13 points behind Trump is truly inexplicable. Lean D. If he loses, good riddance honestly.

OK. I thought they had something particular in mind that he had done (like endorse Trump?).

Patrick Murray ‏@PollsterPatrick  5m5 minutes ago
I've been asked why we're polling "safe" states. My response to a cable news producer - with some thoughts on tightening natl polls:

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Well, that's stupid considering we have seen movement in Florida. And Ohio and Iowa are extremely close so you don't need to many minds to change.

So they are not polling swing states, because as he say "the state swing polling is looking the same, at least right now".

How does he know that, if they are not polling it? Eh? :-\

And on October 28 (Comey's letter) he didn't sound that way


So it is his opinion on swing-states that does not based on data.

He is a known Clinton hack.

one of the most ignorant responses. he haven't seen movement because there were not too many respected polls since then. it isn't surprising to see polling errors when these kind of polling geniuses are running the show

I know. I follow him on twitter. But this one was way off...

Right now, all the Dems are trying to say: It is OK. If it is, why bother?




Nate-Silver-primary sindrom...

wait for PPP to drop out some unchanged midwestern polling and media to cover it 24/7

It's difficult to envision Trump significantly outperform Romney's margins here (+10%).

I can see some shift among White Blue-Collar voters towards Trump, that is mostly offset by suburban women in Saint Louis and KC.

Thinking MO is more like +10-12 T at this point.

I wish they had regional breakdowns here, since that would give us more data on what is going on in NE-02 if we could see what's happening in the Saint Louis suburbs, and if we had numbers on Northern MO it might indicate what is happening in Southern Iowa. :(

People are going their partisan ways...

Emails and lots of non-college educated whites (IIRC). This seems about right.