Talk Elections

From The Crystal Ball (http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/article.php?id=LJS2005070601):

It's much too early to know for sure, but it's starting to look like Ohio will be Ground Zero for the second straight election. Having narrowly given the Presidency to George Bush in 2004, the Buckeye State could, might, possibly will be the site of a party turnaround in 2006--a shift to the Democrats with real implications for the 2008 presidential wars. The likely emerging Democratic ticket of Congressman Ted Strickland for Governor, and Congressman Tim Ryan for U.S. Senator will be a strong combo, especially in the wake of GOP Governor Bob Taft's unpopularity and a string of Republican state scandals.

If they can't win now in Ohio, they probably deserve to never win.

Truer words have never been spoken.

The time is now to win big in Ohio, that's for sure.

I think Ohio might be #3 behind Maryland and Florida for "Ground Zero" in 2006, with PA coming in fourth.

Ohio Republican politics are very different from most states.

Grass roots Republicans are more effectively organized and trained there in practical politics than in any other state.

This is an Ohio tradition, which can be traced by to the 'good' Bob Taft's reelection effort in 1950.

Len Hall, the Ohio Republican chairman in the late fifties and early sixties added improvements to the model.

In Presidential elections from 1968 to the present, Republicans have generally devoted more resources to Ohio than the Democrats.

In 2004, Ohio was the premier example of the efficency of the Bush GOTV effort.

Against this backdrop, the people who call themselves Republicans who occuppy the offices of Govenor, and both US Senators have recently gone off into the left wing fever swamps, and are massively unpopular with rank and file Republican voters.

If any of them seek renomination, it may be a very rare instance of an incumbent getting defeated in a primary!

The Republicans do have a very good 'bench' .

Acctually, both parties have identified PA as Top Priority in '06.

Ohio governor race looks good for Democrats.

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2005/7/7/18324/85595

Senate-wise.  But I was thinking in terms of Governor/Senate duo.  FL, MD, OH have toss-ups or close to toss-ups for both races, while PA's governor race may or may not be intersting.

It'll get interesting. Unless Rendell faces Piccola, he probably won't win by more than 6 - 8 points. That certainly has the potential to be a great race.

Potential?  Yes, but just that.  I'd say it's more likely that Rendell to win by 10-12 points, and that's not biased, since I'm not that much of a Rendell fan.

I don't want this to become a PA Gov. debate so I'll quote your comment in the PA Gov. thread so you can address my point.

Wow, those poll numbers are surprisingly good...update soon on my projection.

The democrats have to win the governors race to change the Republican spin that goes on in the state.

Ifs the dems dont win now then whats the point.

I heard this about Florida in 2001.  Wasn't true.  You don't know what the dynamics of the election is going to be in 2008, so you have no idea what states the election is going to hinge on.

To be honest i never thought McBride had a shot. 

     

Its surprising that both DeWine and Taft have managed to get themselves so unpopular both with the Republican grassroots as well as the wider electorate… if the Democrats do get their act together in the state they should be able to make both races very competitive.

Tim Ryan, is a solid moderate choice who has no lack of ambition how he’d perform in a senate race I’m not sure but he’d be the best pick for the democrats to challenge DeWine, short of somehow rejuvenating John Glenn :)

Ted Strickland, is a figure I know less about, but a quick trawl through the internet seems to suggest a populist record in the House which places him on the right side of both the social and economic issues, but then I would say that, again as with Ryan I’m not sure how effective he’d be in a “big race” but the same could be said of any number of folks early on in their careers.

Both would be able to rake in plenty of cash from Unions, Environmental groups, but would, like Casey in PA, be unlikely to see much support from Pro-Choice lobbyists… but as with Casey this would be unlikely to hamstring them as both would no doubt be see as a high priority by the DNC, and receive a great deal of backing.

For the moment though its all a bit early, lets see how things unfold and perhaps a little polling before we start forecasting anything too exciting.     

The Democrats need another Frank J. Lausche (he was very popular in Ohio, both as a Govenor and a U.S. Senator.

I see no poll numbers at that link.

Kick

No, I'd definately put PA at #1. Maryland wouldn't be too high up, Steele is so ridiculously overrated as a candidate and it's not even absolutely sure he'll run. Even Goldie admitted that even with Steele running the race will still lean Dem at least. And Florida isn't too big either. Nelson's doing very well in all polls. The governor's race probably will be huge though.

True.

Heres a little trivia for ya'...

When is the last time Steele ran for public office on his own, and how did he fair?

.
.
.
.
.
.

Give up?

In 1994 Steele ran in the Republican primary for State Comptoller, but was unable to defeat two political nobodies (Larry Epstein and Timothy Mayberry) despite having the backing of Ellen Sauerbrey (the 1994 Republican candidate for Governor).

Also, Steele's recent "I don't golf" comment regarding Ehrlich's "golfing scandal" is a pretty good indication that he will be a KKT like disaster of a candidate.  Especially if he faces a seasoned pro like Ben Cardin.
 

Ehrlich's recent lurch to the hard right aint' going to help him either.