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Election Archive => 2016 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 01, 2016, 05:39:47 pm



Title: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 01, 2016, 05:39:47 pm
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAraEFpRXdFc21TVG8/view

Indiana: 50% Young (R), 46% Bayh (D)
Florida: 49% Rubio (R), 47% Murphy (D)
Arizona: 49% McCain (R), 46% Kirkpatrick (D)
Ohio: 55% Portman (R), 40% Strickland (D)
Iowa: 56% Grassley (R), 41% Judge (D)

Missouri: 51% Kander (D), 45% Blunt (R)
Illinois: 57% Duckworth (D), 38% Kirk (R)
New Hampshire: 50% Hassan (D), 38% Ayotte (R)
North Carolina: 47% Ross (D), 43% Burr (R)
Pennsylvania: 49% McGinty (D), 46% Toomey (R)
Colorado: 48% Bennet (D), 46% Glenn (R)

Wisconsin: 49% Johnson (R), 49% Feingold (D)
Nevada: 47% Heck (R), 47% Masto (D)


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: Jimmie on November 01, 2016, 05:41:11 pm
Oh no! Kander is only 6 points ahead of blunt! Lets all freak out!

Oh No! Bayh is 4 points being Young in a mass poll! Let's panaic!

Yay! Murphy is only two points behind Rubio! We can win this seat.

lol joking a bit.

But seriously, these numbers do not look too far off.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: QE on November 01, 2016, 05:42:20 pm
Colorado... Wat.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: morgieb on November 01, 2016, 05:44:19 pm
Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 01, 2016, 05:48:43 pm
Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.

NH is probably the junkiest one, though. NC is also not believable.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: Castro on November 01, 2016, 05:50:16 pm
Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.

NH is probably the junkiest one, though. NC is also not believable.

True, there's no way Hassan is only leading by just 12.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: yeah_93 on November 01, 2016, 06:27:34 pm
idontbelieveyou.gif


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: Xing on November 01, 2016, 06:34:37 pm
Okaaaaay.

Not sure why NC is the least believable one here. I'd say NH, MO, CO, IL, and WI are far less believable.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: Kevin on November 01, 2016, 06:35:32 pm
Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.

NH is probably the junkiest one, though. NC is also not believable.

I think New Hampshire is most certainly correct since's it's quickly becoming the next Vermont on all levels.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 01, 2016, 06:39:23 pm
Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.

NH is probably the junkiest one, though. NC is also not believable.

I think New Hampshire is most certainly correct since's it's quickly becoming the next Vermont on all levels.

I know that (and the race is certainly Safe D), but even Ayotte isn't going to lose by more than 6 points.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: DavidB. on November 01, 2016, 09:08:00 pm
Junk poll!
- IN (Young could be up but not by that much), AZ (not so close), CO (not so close), NH (this race is almost tied, not +12 WTF) and WI (Feingold and Johnson are not tied) are definitely off.
- OH, IA, IL, PA and NV are about right.
- MO (Kander up by that much?), NC (Ross up by that much?) and FL (so close?)... could be true, but color me skeptical.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: DavidB. on November 01, 2016, 09:40:20 pm
538 adjusted them all by R+1, which means Johnson actually leads in the WI poll. LMAO.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: Ebsy on November 01, 2016, 10:06:16 pm
Good numbers for the Democrats on average.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: Green Line on November 01, 2016, 10:06:54 pm
About half junk polls and half correct polls.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 02, 2016, 03:11:36 pm
Today's numbers (Oct 26-Nov 1):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcTNEc0hBTzFlSVE/view

Indiana: 51% Young (R), 46% Bayh (D) (R+1)
Florida: 49% Rubio (R), 47% Murphy (D) (no change)
Arizona: 50% McCain (R), 44% Kirkpatrick (D) (R+3)
Ohio: 57% Portman (R), 39% Strickland (D) (R+3)
Iowa: 56% Grassley (R), 41% Judge (D) (no change)
Wisconsin: 50% Johnson (R), 48% Feingold (D) (R+2)

Missouri: 50% Kander (D), 46% Blunt (R) (R+2)
Illinois: 55% Duckworth (D), 39% Kirk (R) (R+3)
New Hampshire: 50% Hassan (D), 38% Ayotte (R) (no change)
North Carolina: 47% Ross (D), 43% Burr (R) (no change)
Pennsylvania: 50% McGinty (D), 46% Toomey (R) (D+1)
Colorado: 49% Bennet (D), 47% Glenn (R) (no change)

Nevada: 47% Heck (R), 47% Masto (D) (no change)

Also, their Louisiana numbers: 23% Kennedy (R), 21% Fayard (D), 13% Boustany (R), 13% Campbell (D), 12% Fleming (R), 4% Maness (R), 2% Duke (R)


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Shadows on November 02, 2016, 03:49:58 pm
I hope a Feingold loss is not a deciding factor. He is a strong candidate & did well throughout the race. But looks like all those M of $ of Negative ads with little to no support from Dems narrowed this race.

Dems have themselves to blame for a Feingold loss!


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Heisenberg on November 02, 2016, 03:51:02 pm
Louisiana looks junk. No way Fayard finishes ahead of Campbell.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on November 02, 2016, 03:52:58 pm
Louisiana looks junk. No way Fayard finishes ahead of Campbell.

Campbell is not a friend of the oil industry. That matters in LA.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 02, 2016, 04:14:33 pm
A tracker for Senate races? :o

God help us all.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Heisenberg on November 02, 2016, 05:11:39 pm
Louisiana looks junk. No way Fayard finishes ahead of Campbell.

Campbell is not a friend of the oil industry. That matters in LA.
Just found this (http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_349f95d2-78e5-11e6-91b8-8f76fd380d99.html). Did not know that about Campbell. From what I know, and from what Miles tells me, I though Campbell would be the much stronger Democrat, as Fayard's base seems to be only White, New Orleans-area Democrats, whereas Campbell seems to have nearly all the Black vote locked down, plus many of the White Democrats. The results of next week's jungle primary will be very interesting, to say the least.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls
Post by: Young Conservative on November 02, 2016, 06:53:13 pm
Some of those numbers seem pretty whack. Colorado and Wisconsin mainly.
Based on the other polls that came out today, Wisconsin looks about right. Also, a CBS/Yougov found the same colorado result a few days ago. #TIGHTENING


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 03, 2016, 02:00:24 pm
Today's numbers (Oct 27-Nov 2):

Indiana: 51% Young (R), 44% Bayh (D) (R+2)
Florida: 49% Rubio (R), 48% Murphy (D) (D+1)
Arizona: 50% McCain (R), 44% Kirkpatrick (D) (no change)
Ohio: 57% Portman (R), 40% Strickland (D) (D+1)
Iowa: 57% Grassley (R), 40% Judge (D) (R+2)

Missouri: 51% Kander (D), 45% Blunt (R) (D+2)
Illinois: 55% Duckworth (D), 40% Kirk (R) (R+1)
New Hampshire: 50% Hassan (D), 37% Ayotte (R) (D+1)
North Carolina: 47% Ross (D), 44% Burr (R) (R+1)
Pennsylvania: 50% McGinty (D), 46% Toomey (R) (no change)
Colorado: 50% Bennet (D), 46% Glenn (R) (D+2)
Nevada: 48% Cortez-Masto (D), 47% Heck (R) (D+1)

Wisconsin: 48% Johnson (R), 48% Feingold (D) (D+2)

Louisiana numbers: 21% Kennedy (R), 21% Fayard (D), 13% Boustany (R), 13% Campbell (D), 12% Fleming (R), 5% Maness (R), 3% Duke (R)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArd1o5cmhoTmVQbDg/view


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 03, 2016, 02:06:05 pm
Can't wait for Survey Monkey to become the new NH gold standard next Tuesday!


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Stranger in a strange land on November 03, 2016, 02:09:53 pm
I know this is a junk poll, but we missed a golden opportunity to take out Little Marco.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: DavidB. on November 03, 2016, 02:10:20 pm
This is going nowhere. Junk polls!


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 03, 2016, 02:17:31 pm
This is going nowhere. Junk polls!

Hard to see McCain doing worse than Young.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on November 03, 2016, 02:19:41 pm
NH is clearly coming down to whether Trackers or traditional polls have a better grasp of its electorate.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Young Conservative on November 03, 2016, 08:26:34 pm
The arkansas number proves this is junk.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 04, 2016, 02:00:50 pm
Today's numbers (Oct 28-Nov 3):

Indiana: 52% Young (R), 43% Bayh (D) (R+2)
Arizona: 50% McCain (R), 45% Kirkpatrick (D) (D+1)
Ohio: 58% Portman (R), 39% Strickland (D) (R+2)
Iowa: 57% Grassley (R), 39% Judge (D) (R+1)

Missouri: 51% Kander (D), 45% Blunt (R) (no change)
Illinois: 54% Duckworth (D), 40% Kirk (R) (R+1)
New Hampshire: 50% Hassan (D), 38% Ayotte (R) (R+1)
North Carolina: 47% Ross (D), 44% Burr (R) (no change)
Pennsylvania: 50% McGinty (D), 45% Toomey (R) (D+1)
Colorado: 51% Bennet (D), 45% Glenn (R) (D+2)
Nevada: 49% Cortez-Masto (D), 46% Heck (R) (D+2)
Wisconsin: 49% Feingold (D), 48% Johnson (R) (D+1)  

Florida: 49% Rubio (R), 49% Murphy (D) (D+1)

Louisiana numbers: 21% Kennedy (R), 19% Fayard (D), 15% Boustany (R), 14% Campbell (D), 11% Fleming (R), 5% Maness (R), 3% Duke (R)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreE9xVzhyUUNZNGc/view


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: heatcharger on November 04, 2016, 02:05:31 pm
Wow, looks like Murphy is still alive. Thank you SurveyMonkey!

If we could replace Bayh's corpse with him, that would be fantastic, but I'm not optimistic.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: DavidB. on November 04, 2016, 02:10:52 pm
JUNKITY JUNK
U
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K
I
T
Y

J
U
N
K


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 06, 2016, 03:30:43 pm
They didn't release any numbers today and yesterday! BAD!


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: DavidB. on November 06, 2016, 04:22:12 pm
They didn't release any numbers today and yesterday! BAD!
Pretty good, actually. They probably realized it was junk.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: olowakandi on November 06, 2016, 05:20:18 pm
FLorida will be a nice surprise. But, MO and PA look promising.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 06, 2016, 10:12:54 pm
Oh well, here they are:

Today's numbers (Oct 31-Nov 6):

Indiana: 52% Young (R), 43% Bayh (D) (no change)
Arizona: 50% McCain (R), 45% Kirkpatrick (D) (no change)
Ohio: 57% Portman (R), 39% Strickland (D) (D+1)
Iowa: 56% Grassley (R), 39% Judge (D) (D+1)
Wisconsin: 49% Ron Johnson (R), 48% Russ Feingold (D) (R+2)

Missouri: 51% Kander (D), 43% Blunt (R) (D+2)
Illinois: 56% Duckworth (D), 39% Kirk (R) (D+3)
New Hampshire: 50% Hassan (D), 41% Ayotte (R) (R+3)
North Carolina: 47% Ross (D), 44% Burr (R) (no change)
Pennsylvania: 50% McGinty (D), 45% Toomey (R) (no change)
Colorado: 51% Bennet (D), 45% Glenn (R) (no change)
Nevada: 49% Cortez-Masto (D), 46% Heck (R) (no change)
Florida: 49% Patrick Murphy (D), 48% Marco Rubio (R) (D+1)

Louisiana numbers: 21% Kennedy (R), 20% Fayard (D), 15% Boustany (R), 14% Campbell (D), 11% Fleming (R), 6% Maness (R), 3% Duke (R)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArcEwxQXh2M25qSFE/view


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2016, 10:34:41 pm
Florida and Wisconsin are obviously wrong but the other numbers look fine.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Green Line on November 06, 2016, 10:36:13 pm
Wow,  JUNK poll in Florida.  Survey Monkey is a joke.  However, their Wisconsin poll is reputable and gold standard.  Starting to look like lean-Johnson, just as I predicted.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 06, 2016, 10:40:57 pm
Blunt and Ayotte down 9 is hardly believable. Both are underdogs, but they are not going to lose by 9.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: KingSweden on November 06, 2016, 11:30:32 pm
This is utter junk


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on November 07, 2016, 04:49:48 pm
Anything new today?


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 07, 2016, 04:50:50 pm
Anything new today?

No, at least not yet.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on November 07, 2016, 05:20:48 pm
Anything new today?

No, at least not yet.

By the way, where did you find the links to these documents? I don't see it on RCP, and can only find one of them through google searches.


Title: Re: SurveyMonkey Senate polls - Daily tracker!
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 08, 2016, 10:56:57 am
Final numbers (Nov 1-Nov 7):

Indiana: 53% Young (R), 42% Bayh (D) (R+2)
Arizona: 50% McCain (R), 45% Kirkpatrick (D) (no change)
Ohio: 57% Portman (R), 39% Strickland (D) (no change)
Iowa: 56% Grassley (R), 39% Judge (D) (no change)
Wisconsin: 49% Ron Johnson (R), 48% Russ Feingold (D) (no change)

Missouri: 51% Kander (D), 44% Blunt (R) (R+1)
Illinois: 56% Duckworth (D), 39% Kirk (R) (no change)
New Hampshire: 51% Hassan (D), 42% Ayotte (R) (no change)
North Carolina: 47% Ross (D), 43% Burr (R) (D+1)
Pennsylvania: 49% McGinty (D), 45% Toomey (R) (R+1)
Colorado: 52% Bennet (D), 45% Glenn (R) (D+1)
Nevada: 50% Cortez-Masto (D), 45% Heck (R) (D+2)
Florida: 49% Patrick Murphy (D), 48% Marco Rubio (R) (no change)

Louisiana numbers: 21% Kennedy (R), 21% Fayard (D), 14% Boustany (R), 13% Campbell (D), 12% Fleming (R), 6% Maness (R), 3% Duke (R)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArc1RLTFJqQ3JhTTA/view