Talk Elections

West Virginia
43% Bill Cole (R)
42% Jim Justice (D)

Vermont
52% Phil Scott (R)
45% Sue Minter (D)

Indiana
48% John Gregg (D)
47% Eric Holcomb (R)

North Carolina
52% Roy Cooper (D)
46% Pat McCrory (R, inc.)

Missouri
54% Chris Koster (D)
44% Eric Greitens (R)

Montana
53% Steve Bullock (D, inc.)
39% Greg Gianforte (R)

North Dakota
68% Doug Burgum (R)
29% Marvin Nelson (D)

Oregon
54% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
42% Bud Pierce (R)

Washington
55% Jay Inslee (D, inc.)
42% Bill Bryant (R)

New Hampshire
53% Colin Van Ostern (D)
43% Chris Sununu (R)

Delaware
60% John Carney (D, inc.)
36% Colin Bonini (R)

Utah
61% Gary Herbert (R, inc.)
35% Mike Weinholtz (D)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArckM2TXYweURSNFU/view

Those Missouri and Vermont numbers are very comforting. Indiana is a little worrying, but ultimately I don't think Young is going to win by more than the 4 point margin this poll has him winning by, so Gregg should be okay considering he still leads even in this sample.

But WV.................

B-B-B-B-BUT ATLAS TOLD ME THAT JUSTICE WILL WIN IN A LANDSLIDE! MUH ANCESTRAL DEMOCRATS. MUH TICKET SPLITTERS. MUH PERSONAL POPULARITY. MUH GOOD FIT. MUH RIGHT KIND OF DEMOCRAT. MUH STRONG CANDIDATE. MUH COAL MINERS. MUH JUNK POLLS. MUH DEM INTERNALS. MUH POPULISTS!!!!!

Called it. Justice will lose because he is a member of the anti-white hate group, meaning he has a (D) after his name. Hopefully you all acknowledge that the Senate race in 2018 is safe R after Justice loses, so we don't need to go through this same song and dance for another 2 years...

I'm not as cocky as IceSpear on this topic, but Cole leading in WV is not a shocking data point - West Virignia polls tend to over-estimate Democrat support, sometimes significantly.

I'll be watching not only this race, but the row offices + WV-2 as well, in determining where to start Manchin's race. Under no circumstances would I count him out on day one though, he's an extremely skilled politician.

And Justice is at a measly 42%. Hmm, I wonder who those undecideds will break for...

Nah, can't be...Atlas told me this will be a Justice landslide. He's such a populist good fit!!!! <33333

So you won't learn your lesson? I look forward to the "could Nick Rahall make it a race against Shelley Moore Capito in 2020? WV still likes the "right type of Democrat!!!11!!" threads. ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::) ::)

LOL, Manchin will be in WAY worse shape than Justice. For one thing, governor's races are inherently less partisan. Second, Justice is far more popular, Manchin's approval is mediocre. Third, Justice has self funded, Manchin will not be able to. Fourth, Justice is not weighed down with Manchin's voting record where he "sided with Obama ___%" of the time. Fifth, Justice has disowned Hillary, Manchin has endorsed her. Sixth, Dem turnout will be lower in a midterm, even in a state like WV. Seventh, Manchin will either have to deal with a toxic Hillary administration or a popular Trump administration campaigning against him. Eighth, Manchin will probably get a stronger opponent than the hapless Cole. These are big reasons why Justice could keep it within single digits, yet Manchin's Blanching (or retirement) is inevitable.

Hell, he might even get Thompsoned at this point.

()

Why are people even paying attention to these polls? They're clearly junk.

True, but the fact that the Senate polls exist tells me that these are probably bad too.

And you both sound like ing losers.

Jeez, someone's cranky. Well, I can see why after you made these posts...

It has nothing to do with your respective points, and you know that.  It's that you're both blindly hateful jerks, incapable of any discourse that isn't actively promoting your theories, when these states are brought up.  You couldn't possibly discuss the cute small towns that dot NH without insufferably bringing up how it's a sexist feminazi state, and IceSpear could never discuss the beautiful rolling hills of WV without talking about how the state's people are stupid hicks.

It's unhealthy, but what bothers me is simply that it's annoying as shlt.

Well, if Atlas would just accept WV is now solid R at all levels and will not be electing Democrats any time soon outside of freak circumstances because they see them as an anti-white hate group, I wouldn't talk about it as much. ;) You don't see me constantly insisting Oklahoma or Alabama are solid R because everyone already accepts it...

Many of these numbers are quite plausible, though I think if you switch ND and UT, it'd be more believable.

This election is going to be much better for Cole than you all expect.

Please don't try to tell me that WV-2 is competitive. It's not. Mark Hunt is a dreadful candidate.

Oh, everyone clinging to the West Virginia poll as proof that Justice is a natural leader in this race, Shelley Capito beat Natalie Tennant by 17 in the September WV Poll. In May, that number was 11. On election day, ballots added up to a 62-34 lead for Shelley.

*mic drop*

Does it surprise anyone that a candidate who spells his last name the same way most West Virginians spell their pet industry is leading there?

Stop me if that joke has already been made.

Overall this isn't an actual wash for the Democrats.

I think Democrats in the end would happy with this exchange, they would gain Indiana and North Carolina (2 very sizable states w/industries and populations that are thriving) while Republicans would take Vermont and West Virginia (two states with either economic woes, stagnant growth in population, and/or are hostile environment's for the incumbent).


Of course the Democrats would probably be even happier to keep all their mansions they have, but if they had to lose two these two would probably be acceptable losses.

As long as Phil Scott wins next Tuesday, I will be a happy man.

Today's numbers (Oct 26 - Nov 1)

West Virginia - D+2
43% Jim Justice (D)
42% Bill Cole (R)

Vermont - R+4
54% Phil Scott (R)
43% Sue Minter (D)

Indiana - R+3
49% Eric Holcomb (R)
47% John Gregg (D)

North Carolina - D+1
52% Roy Cooper (D)
45% Pat McCrory (R, inc.)

Missouri - R+4
52% Chris Koster (D)
46% Eric Greitens (R)

Montana - R+4
51% Steve Bullock (D, inc.)
41% Greg Gianforte (R)

North Dakota - D+2
67% Doug Burgum (R)
30% Marvin Nelson (D)

Oregon - D+1
54% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
41% Bud Pierce (R)

Washington - D+1
55% Jay Inslee (D, inc.)
41% Bill Bryant (R)

New Hampshire - No change
53% Colin Van Ostern (D)
43% Chris Sununu (R)

Delaware - R+3
58% John Carney (D, inc.)
37% Colin Bonini (R)

Utah - R+1
61% Gary Herbert (R, inc.)
34% Mike Weinholtz (D)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kAreDluOWJFc0xsSzA/view

I hope you mean besides me. ;)

And same for WV-2. The candidate running in the anti-white hate group party will lose in a landslide, naturally.

Does any know how accurate SurveyMonkey polls are?

Many Eric Greitens supporters are saying that Koster will struggle to get more then a third of the vote.

These results SurveyMonkey is showing are not seeming very off.

In case you didn't notice, Justice has inched ahead in the most recent part of the tracker.

Who cares? He'd need a 20 point lead to even have a chance at pulling out a win.

Today's numbers (Oct 27 - Nov 2)

West Virginia - R+6
44% Bill Cole (R)
39% Jim Justice (D)

Vermont - D+2
53% Phil Scott (R)
44% Sue Minter (D)

Indiana - D+1
48% Eric Holcomb (R)
47% John Gregg (D)

North Carolina - D+1
53% Roy Cooper (D)
45% Pat McCrory (R, inc.)

Missouri - R+3
50% Chris Koster (D)
47% Eric Greitens (R)

Montana - R+5
48% Steve Bullock (D, inc.)
43% Greg Gianforte (R)

North Dakota - R+4
69% Doug Burgum (R)
28% Marvin Nelson (D)

Oregon - D+1
55% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
41% Bud Pierce (R)

Washington - D+1
56% Jay Inslee (D, inc.)
41% Bill Bryant (R)

New Hampshire - D+2
54% Colin Van Ostern (D)
42% Chris Sununu (R)

Delaware - R+4
56% John Carney (D, inc.)
39% Colin Bonini (R)

Utah - D+3
60% Gary Herbert (R, inc.)
36% Mike Weinholtz (D)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArX25Ba3RrWkZsQTg/view

No , West Virginia, No!!!!! Don't vote for Cole. YOU KNOW BETTER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I will not be able to sleep until WV and MO govs are called for the Democrats.

End of day , they probably will be.

Honestly I see the two as roughly the same.

LMFAO! Cole is surging, Justice is now sitting at a pathetic 39%! Even Obama got 36%!

I expect many accolades when the race is called for Gov. Cole.


They only thing they "know" is that Jim Justice is a member of the anti-white hate group, which is an unforgivable sin in their eyes.

Today's numbers (Oct 28 - Nov 3)

West Virginia - D+3
42% Bill Cole (R)
40% Jim Justice (D)

Vermont - D+4
51% Phil Scott (R)
46% Sue Minter (D)

Indiana - D+1
47% Eric Holcomb (R)
47% John Gregg (D)

North Carolina - D+1
53% Roy Cooper (D)
44% Pat McCrory (R, inc.)

Missouri - R+1
49% Chris Koster (D)
47% Eric Greitens (R)

Montana - R+5 (again!)
46% Steve Bullock (D, inc.)
46% Greg Gianforte (R)

North Dakota - R+2
70% Doug Burgum (R)
27% Marvin Nelson (D)

Oregon - D+2
56% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
40% Bud Pierce (R)

Washington - no change
56% Jay Inslee (D, inc.)
41% Bill Bryant (R)

New Hampshire - no change
54% Colin Van Ostern (D)
42% Chris Sununu (R)

Delaware - R+1
56% John Carney (D, inc.)
40% Colin Bonini (R)

Utah - D+1
60% Gary Herbert (R, inc.)
37% Mike Weinholtz (D)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArUGZzeTA3UTZOcWM/view

omg its time to panic it is over!!!! Maybe the Greitens supports on facebook are right that Koster is going to struggle to reach 40% of the vote.. despite that polling has been mixed the past few days.

West Virginia "knows better"? lol

And it's not like Justice is much better than Cole, to be honest.

That's right, West Virginia! Cole is not an option! Go, Justice, Go!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

The big changes in Montana are probably due to incredibly small sample sizes. Bullock is going to easily win reelection.

Today's numbers (Oct 31 - Nov 6)

West Virginia - R+4
43% Bill Cole (R)
37% Jim Justice (D)

Vermont - D+7
50% Sue Minter (D)
48% Phil Scott (R)

Indiana - D+3
49% Eric Holcomb (R)
46% John Gregg (D)

North Carolina - D+2
54% Roy Cooper (D)
43% Pat McCrory (R, inc.)

Missouri - D+1
49% Chris Koster (D)
46% Eric Greitens (R)

Montana - D+1
45% Steve Bullock (D, inc.)
44% Greg Gianforte (R)

North Dakota - D+4
68% Doug Burgum (R)
29% Marvin Nelson (D)

Oregon - no change
56% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
40% Bud Pierce (R)

Washington - R+2
55% Jay Inslee (D, inc.)
42% Bill Bryant (R)

New Hampshire - D+3
56% Colin Van Ostern (D)
41% Chris Sununu (R)

Delaware - R+4
54% John Carney (D, inc.)
42% Colin Bonini (R)

Utah - D+2
59% Gary Herbert (R, inc.)
38% Mike Weinholtz (D)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArck4xWGRaUEVid1U/view

Well, WV, you had your chance. Hope you're ready for you to be about 20 times worse off as a state than you are now.

And I have no idea what is going on in NH. U Mass Lowell and Suffolk are telling me that Sununu is marching to victory, while PPP tells me it will be a narrow Van Ostern win, and this tells me it will more D than Washington and Delaware. Making a call here tomorrow is going to be difficult.

I tried to tell you what was going on.  I really tried.  This looks like a landslide, folks.

Wow, I hope they're somehow right about Vermont!

What's up with Holcomb?

What are the major issues dividing Juatice and Cole? TBH they seem very, VERY similar.

ObamaCare, Preserving the federal department of education, and the minimum wage, probably. Maybe LGBT issues or Abortion?

Final numbers (Nov 1 - Nov 7)

West Virginia - R+3
45% Bill Cole (R)
36% Jim Justice (D)

Vermont - D+2
51% Sue Minter (D)
47% Phil Scott (R)

Indiana - R+1
49% Eric Holcomb (R)
47% John Gregg (D)

North Carolina - no change
54% Roy Cooper (D)
43% Pat McCrory (R, inc.)

Missouri - R+2
48% Chris Koster (D)
47% Eric Greitens (R)

Montana - R+3 
46% Greg Gianforte (R)
44% Steve Bullock (D, inc.)

North Dakota - R+4
70% Doug Burgum (R)
27% Marvin Nelson (D)

Oregon - R+1
56% Kate Brown (D, inc.)
41% Bud Pierce (R)

Washington - no change
55% Jay Inslee (D, inc.)
42% Bill Bryant (R)

New Hampshire - R+2 
55% Colin Van Ostern (D)
42% Chris Sununu (R)

Delaware - D+4
56% John Carney (D, inc.)
40% Colin Bonini (R)

Utah - D+1 
58% Gary Herbert (R, inc.)
38% Mike Weinholtz (D)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0BxxpEMTW3kArTFlBMU1iNjU1dmM/view

LMFAO!!!! JUSTICE IS NOW AT OBAMA 2012'S PERCENTAGE!!!!

Junk poll!