Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: dspNY on November 01, 2016, 09:05:39 pm



Title: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: dspNY on November 01, 2016, 09:05:39 pm
Clinton 48
Trump 40

Holy s***

Pollster is saying that Clinton is winning 28% of registered REPUBLICANS in Florida. Trump is winning only 6% of registered Democrats


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Solopop on November 01, 2016, 09:06:26 pm
lol sure sure


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: KingSweden on November 01, 2016, 09:06:31 pm
Dear God...


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Ronnie on November 01, 2016, 09:06:32 pm
OH. MY.  GOD.

IT'S HAPPENING!!!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 01, 2016, 09:06:39 pm
If true, game over


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 09:06:52 pm
Angry Puerto Ricans cometh with an unfolding fury of the gods.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Maxwell on November 01, 2016, 09:06:55 pm
lol wut


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 09:07:06 pm
While it would be awesome if true, gonna need some more pollsters to back this up.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2016, 09:07:51 pm
Today just seems to be the day of outliers.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Castro on November 01, 2016, 09:07:55 pm
Clinton winning 28% of early voting registered Republicans.

Trump winning 6% of early voting registered Democrats.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Ebowed on November 01, 2016, 09:09:28 pm
Great result!  Saint Leo University and W&M/TargetSmart are the GOLD STANDARDS of Florida polling!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Oakvale on November 01, 2016, 09:09:29 pm
Hope this leads to a multi-page freakout too!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Thomas D on November 01, 2016, 09:09:39 pm
While it would be awesome if true, gonna need some more info to back this up.

Agreed.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 09:09:47 pm
Jives with the Rand National poll released earlier today.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Horus on November 01, 2016, 09:09:53 pm
Today just seems to be the day of outliers.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Never Beto on November 01, 2016, 09:09:56 pm
Unsubstantiated in every way imaginable.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Castro on November 01, 2016, 09:10:10 pm
Full results:

https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Green Line on November 01, 2016, 09:10:15 pm
J.U.N.K. P.O.L.L.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: OneJ on November 01, 2016, 09:10:23 pm
Looks like my wish upon the shooting star worked.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: psychprofessor on November 01, 2016, 09:10:36 pm
A lot of registered Republican Latino's are crossing over...thank you Cubans!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 09:11:45 pm
A lot of registered Republican Latino's are crossing over...thank you Cubans!

Yep, been saying it for a while.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Interlocutor on November 01, 2016, 09:11:56 pm
Too good to be true. I'd say shes leading by 4-5.

Don't wanna raise my expectations


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Ebowed on November 01, 2016, 09:12:09 pm
A lot of registered Republican Latino's are crossing over...thank you Cubans!
Let's see, Miami...

Donald Trump
  • hates Latinos
  • thinks climate change is a hoax
  • sexually assaults women

The bottom is FALLING OUT in Florida for Donald Trump!!!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 09:12:19 pm
Note that this poll takes into account early votes that have already been cast, which is hugely important.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 09:12:35 pm
I know that they use a "secret sauce", but this is well removed from what we've seen recently and that R cross over can't be right. I do think she's leading FL slightly, but until I see more, I'm reluctant to get too hyped up on this "demos show FL's running well ahead" thing. Put it in the mix, it's something in a time of crap and nothing, polling wise.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Buh her emails! on November 01, 2016, 09:13:06 pm
Come on Latinos!  Put the racist orange cheeto away!!!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: dspNY on November 01, 2016, 09:13:28 pm
Senate numbers: Rubio 49, Murphy 43

The Senate numbers are legit


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Castro on November 01, 2016, 09:13:47 pm
Quote
As of the morning of November 1st, 2016, TargetSmart tracks that 3,695,359 people have already cast their votes in Florida. Leveraging TargetSmart’s proprietary voter file - that is updated daily through the early voting window - this poll reached a significant number of voters who have already participated. Among those early voters (who were asked which candidate they had voted for), Clinton outpaces Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 to 38 percent.

Reflective of the trends that have been published in other public polls in recent days, the TargetSmart/William & Mary poll shows the contest in Florida is very competitive among those who have yet to cast their ballot. Among those non-early voters (who were asked which candidate they will vote for), Clinton attracts 42 percent of the vote and 43 percent back Donald Trump. The poll also shows the U.S. Senate race tilting decidedly in Marco Rubio’s direction as Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy trails Rubio 43 to 49 percent. Unlike Clinton, Murphy only breaks even with early voters, having garnered 48 percent of the vote among them to Rubio’s 47 percent. And, among non-early voters, Rubio holds a solid lead with 51 percent of the vote to Murphy’s 39 percent.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 01, 2016, 09:14:06 pm
Um... suuure. ::)


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:14:11 pm
Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic :D


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Ebowed on November 01, 2016, 09:14:20 pm
Senate numbers: Rubio 49, Murphy 43

The Senate numbers are legit

That's very disappointing, but then again, Marco Rubio hasn't raped anyone - that we know of!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Crumpets on November 01, 2016, 09:14:34 pm
So, if the polls from today are to be believed, Florida will vote 15 points to the left of North Carolina. What year is it again?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 09:14:52 pm
Senate numbers: Rubio 49, Murphy 43

The Senate numbers are legit

Down ticket looks normal because of no Cuban crossover.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: peterthlee on November 01, 2016, 09:15:08 pm
Great poll!!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 09:15:39 pm
I do think alot of pollsters are having trouble with likely voter screens this year, and many latinos in Florida who vote early are less likely to be included in said voter screens.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: riceowl on November 01, 2016, 09:16:18 pm
Yeah the people on Last Word need to keep it in their pants. This is an outlier, but you can actually see the drool.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 09:17:02 pm
Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic :D

AGAIN: 538 is not gospel for measuring a pollsters worth.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Green Line on November 01, 2016, 09:17:41 pm
Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic :D

AGAIN: 538 is not gospel for measuring a pollsters worth.

But your feelings are.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: psychprofessor on November 01, 2016, 09:17:46 pm
I do think alot of pollsters are having trouble with likely voter screens this year, and many latinos in Florida who vote early are less likely to be included in said voter screens.

This also jives with Clinton's team driving more unlikely Latino's to the early vote and R's getting more reliable voters.

But this is one state where it makes sense that there would be a huge R cross-over, with Cubans in Miami-Dade.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Hammy on November 01, 2016, 09:17:55 pm
Junk.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 09:18:27 pm
Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic :D

AGAIN: 538 is not gospel for measuring a pollsters worth.

But your feelings are.

We'll find out in a week.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Maxwell on November 01, 2016, 09:18:43 pm
The poll looks wacky but a lot of the numbers check out - there is a rise in female turnout and a rise in hispanic turnout. We'll have to see to find out.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 09:18:50 pm
I just noted in another thread earlier that people are underestimating the hispanic vote this cycle.  It is going to come out very strong for Hillary.  I wouldn't be surprised if she wins 80% of the hispanic vote nationally.

She's close to that in the reliable Latino Poll.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:19:41 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 01, 2016, 09:19:57 pm
This and the Trump +7 poll in NC. I'm just going to roll with it, today has been a bad polling day.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: psychprofessor on November 01, 2016, 09:20:25 pm
I just noted in another thread earlier that people are underestimating the hispanic vote this cycle.  It is going to come out very strong for Hillary.  I wouldn't be surprised if she wins 80% of the hispanic vote nationally.

She's close to that in the reliable Latino Poll.

Latino Decisions had her above 70 with Hispanics in Florida...which was a huge increase over Obama.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 09:20:38 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Your welcome to leave. :)



Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 09:20:56 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: matthew27 on November 01, 2016, 09:21:02 pm
Note that this poll takes into account early votes that have already been cast, which is hugely important.

48% of the total 2012 vote is in with the early vote. This is huge.



Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 01, 2016, 09:21:20 pm
JUNK WITH A CAPITAL J


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: rafta_rafta on November 01, 2016, 09:21:34 pm
What's with the outliers today . Florida is not going to be decided by 8 points lol


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 09:22:09 pm
JUNK WITH A CAPITAL J

Maybe. We will find out in a week, wont we?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: psychprofessor on November 01, 2016, 09:22:19 pm
This and the Trump +7 poll in NC. I'm just going to roll with it, today has been a bad polling day.

Eh, this poll has very sound methodology - they are able to go back to a voter registration list and call people. That gives you a really good sample and then you can model that sample to demographics, such as gender, race, partisan divide, etc...


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: ReapSow on November 01, 2016, 09:22:44 pm
Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic :D

Do you live on this forum?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:23:19 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

I am not expert. I believe in average and history. You sems to be a proffs in everything though. Wasn't you the one scremaing about Russia-server that turned out to be a complete BS? ::)


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 01, 2016, 09:23:34 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:24:24 pm
This and the Trump +7 poll in NC. I'm just going to roll with it, today has been a bad polling day.

Eh, this poll has very sound methodology - they are able to go back to a voter registration list and call people. That gives you a really good sample and then you can model that sample to demographics, such as gender, race, partisan divide, etc...

Did you hear about Sienna/Upshot? A-pollster, you know? :P


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 09:24:42 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

I am not expert. I believe in average and history. You sems to be a proffs in everything though. Wasn't you the one scremaing about Russia-server that turned out to be a complete BS? ::)

I made a post on what was breaking in some news sites and updated it accordingly through until the NYT discredited it. Don't try and delegitimize one of my actions based on your misinterpretations of other actions that were also fine. Put up or shut up.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 01, 2016, 09:25:01 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2016, 09:25:19 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 09:25:51 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

Don't wrestle with pigs, Arch. I must ask you, though, that R crossover #....there's just no way, is there? There aren't enough Latino Rs to make that a reality. FL educated white crossover just can't be that high, right?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:26:20 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....

Would it be smart to be more calm with D firm as this one? Just saying :D


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Yank2133 on November 01, 2016, 09:26:25 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....

Siena/NYT did not account for new registrations.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: matthew27 on November 01, 2016, 09:26:54 pm
Is this like a exit poll for in person early voters?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: swf541 on November 01, 2016, 09:26:58 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Because SUSA record in NC is utter trash and this poll seems methodologically sound.  That and the other numbers ie the senate look accurate


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 01, 2016, 09:27:15 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

If I could say one positive thing about this poll...maybe because it's got better crosstabs...?

Idk, I still smell garbage everywhere.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: heatcharger on November 01, 2016, 09:27:20 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Because demographically it's more realistic. The Republican support for her is most likely inflated, but it's more plausible than the crosstabs of that SUSA poll.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:27:46 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....

Siena/NYT did not account for new registrations.
Yeah. It caused this swing :(


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 01, 2016, 09:28:33 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....

Siena/NYT did not account for new registrations.

That's a great point actually.

Nate Cohn is already challenging him lol

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
"Clinton's not winning 28% of registered Republican early voters in Florida. Just saying."


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Green Line on November 01, 2016, 09:28:59 pm
For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.

Can we get a two-for-one on that?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 01, 2016, 09:29:45 pm
For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.

Can we get a two-for-one on that?
3 for 1?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 01, 2016, 09:30:02 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Because SUSA record in NC is utter trash and this poll seems methodologically sound.  That and the other numbers ie the senate look accurate

Survey USA used to be great but has been awful since 2014 according to Silver.

For whatever reason Silver still has them as "A" pollster because of their past accuracy before 2014.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:30:33 pm
Quote
The TargetSmart/William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection approach. As weighted, 530 online interviews were conducted from October 25-28, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file.  As weighted, 188 telephone interviews were conducted from October 27-30, 2016 to supplement the online sample, with telephone numbers for targeted populations being selected at random from the TargetSmart voter file.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Green Line on November 01, 2016, 09:30:51 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Because SUSA record in NC is utter trash and this poll seems methodologically sound.  That and the other numbers ie the senate look accurate

Survey USA used to be great but has been awful since 2014 according to Silver.

For whatever reason Silver still has them as "A" pollster because of their past accuracy before 2014.

#MakeSUSAGreatAgain


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 01, 2016, 09:31:02 pm
What an absolutely tremendous result! Thank you Target -- low prices AND high quality shock polls!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 01, 2016, 09:31:25 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

If I could say one positive thing about this poll...maybe because it's got better crosstabs...?

Idk, I still smell garbage everywhere.

Honestly, I'm about to give up on the polls and just wait and see what happens on election day. I still think Clinton is favored to win FL, NV and the freiwal states and Trump is slightly favored to win in NC, IA and OH.

Marquette will probably show a close race in WI tomorrow and make this even more confusing.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Mehmentum on November 01, 2016, 09:31:32 pm
Throw it in the average.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 09:31:36 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

This pollster uses voter registration files so in theory, should be accurate.
But Siena/NYT, which also uses voter registration files came up with +4 Trump so who knows....

Siena/NYT did not account for new registrations.

That's a great point actually.

Nate Cohn is already challenging him lol

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor
"Clinton's not winning 28% of registered Republican early voters in Florida. Just saying."

Granted, Nates challenging the results with his own results.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 09:31:45 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

Don't wrestle with pigs, Arch. I must ask you, though, that R crossover #....there's just no way, is there? There aren't enough Latino Rs to make that a reality. FL educated white crossover just can't be that high, right?

It's actually absolutely plausible and jives with what the Latino Poll has been finding with Hispanic voter numbers in FL that weren't reflected in typical polling, and I'll tell you why. Two reasons:

1) New Puerto Rican population influx over the years (heavy D)
2) Cuban Republicans (one of the most R Hispanic communities in the US) splitting tickets at the top because Trump is just that toxic

Cuban Republicans are a major reason why FL is still competitive for Republicans despite the huge Hispanic population. The crossover vote reveals what would happen to FL if R Cubans crossed over completely, which is something that has been happening cross-generationally, but not with the more reliable older voters who are splitting tickets this year.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: ReapSow on November 01, 2016, 09:31:53 pm
For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: morgieb on November 01, 2016, 09:32:19 pm
Haha, where are Dems who critisied A pollster SUSA's results in NC? You are pathetic :D
FWIW I'm not buying this. Although the gap between this and the Senate numbers are interesting. If there's a 15 point gap between North Carolina and Florida I'll eat my computer.

Think this is closer to reality than NC though.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Green Line on November 01, 2016, 09:32:50 pm
Throw it in the averagebasket.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 01, 2016, 09:33:09 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

If I could say one positive thing about this poll...maybe because it's got better crosstabs...?

Idk, I still smell garbage everywhere.

Honestly, I'm about to give up on the polls and just wait and see what happens on election day. I still think Clinton is favored to win FL, NV and the freiwal states and Trump is slightly favored to win in NC, IA and OH.

Marquette will probably show a close race in WI tomorrow and make this even more confusing.
I felt like we had better polling in 2012.

My gut tells me Clinton is close in Iowa and Ohio, and will probably win both. Trump's not even trying to fight in the trenches at the point. Ground game is crucial and he's practically given up on it.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 09:34:02 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

If I could say one positive thing about this poll...maybe because it's got better crosstabs...?

Idk, I still smell garbage everywhere.

Honestly, I'm about to give up on the polls and just wait and see what happens on election day. I still think Clinton is favored to win FL, NV and the freiwal states and Trump is slightly favored to win in NC, IA and OH.

Marquette will probably show a close race in WI tomorrow and make this even more confusing.

Is it bad I think most pollster have no idea what they're doing this year? In fact, if they screw up this cycle then pollsters would have by and large gotten 3 cycles in a row wrong.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Maxwell on November 01, 2016, 09:34:10 pm
For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.

Can we get a two-for-one on that?

For sure. Let's hope that the mods do their job and ban you and your fellow Klansmen from this website.

I thought GreenLine was voting for Clinton?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:34:13 pm
For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.
I'm capable to both retain quality and quantity on huuuuge level. Believe me.


Is this like their first poll ever? Public, at least? ::)


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Green Line on November 01, 2016, 09:34:54 pm
For the love of god, can the mods please re-ban LittleBigPlanet already? This cretin has made about 120 posts today alone. His spamming is out of control at this point.

Can we get a two-for-one on that?

For sure. Let's hope that the mods do their job and ban you and your fellow Klansmen from this website.

I thought GreenLine was voting for Clinton?

I am lol.  He is like Marcobot stuck on repeat.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on November 01, 2016, 09:35:13 pm
LOL at the people buying SUSA's NC poll, but calling this junk. Anyway, this is obviously too good to be true for Hillary, I highly doubt she'll get 28% of Republicans (though she'll definitely win some Cuban Republicans), but people were definitely too quick to assume that Hillary was dead and buried in FL.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: BundouYMB on November 01, 2016, 09:38:27 pm
Now seems like a good time to remind people I predicted Clinton would win Florida by 9 points WEEKS ago. One more week 'till the Clintonslide!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:38:43 pm
Hope this leads to a multi-page freakout too!

The winner!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: QE on November 01, 2016, 09:39:39 pm
At the very least, hopefully this poll will trigger Trump into saying something uncouth. (...because you know he's going to see it if he hasn't already)


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: mark_twain on November 01, 2016, 09:39:58 pm
It is called a "Poll of Early and Likely Voters"--I like that name!

I think Clinton is enjoying an early vote advantage in many states including FL.

I would not be surprised if other state polls taking early and likely votes into account also go favorably for Clinton.

All in all, great poll!



Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 01, 2016, 09:41:34 pm
If Marquette shows a Hillary +8 or something tomorrow twitter and this board will go absolutely ballistic.  


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Mike88 on November 01, 2016, 09:43:52 pm
No, i don't buy this. This numbers are as bizarre as the SUSA poll from NC.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Ozymandias on November 01, 2016, 09:44:34 pm
Note that TargetSmart's 55-37 early voter margin for Clinton is VERY close to the 54-37 margin NBC/Marist found for early voters last week, and also consistent with the 57-42 spread that Emerson found.

So the main difference between this poll and those two Clinton +1 polls boils down to the respondents in their samples who haven't voted yet.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Hammy on November 01, 2016, 09:45:12 pm
LOL at the people buying SUSA's NC poll, but calling this junk.

I think both are garbage, and still think both polls have the wrong person winning.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 01, 2016, 09:45:46 pm
Note that TargetSmart's 55-37 early voter margin for Clinton is VERY close to 54-37 margin NBC/Marist found for early voters last week, and also consistent with 57-42 spread that Emerson found.

So the main difference between this poll and those two Clinton +1 polls boils down to the respondents in their samples who haven't voted yet.

Well it would be amazing if, because of sh**te ground game and claims that the election is rigged, Trump underperforms big league.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 01, 2016, 09:48:23 pm
It seems to be on the high-end, but even if you bring it down, it is still good news for Clinton.
Yeahhhhh !


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:49:32 pm
Wait. You said that crosstabs are much more believable than SUSA:s, but there are no crosstabs split [how they voted]. Just demographics...

The only split they have ie EV vs non-EV. So how do you know that crosstabs make thinks? Or is there some other file than this one? ???

https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 09:50:32 pm
Scott Tranter, who is on "Team Rubio Analytics", just threw out this curveball of a tweet that has even experts in his comment section putting up question marks:

Quote
@jmartNYT
Whoa, @tbonier just said on @Lawrence the @_TargetSmart survey of FL early/absentee vote has Hillary winning 28% of reg Rs.
Quote
@stranter Scott Tranter

Surprised it took this long for one of these to leak


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: izixs on November 01, 2016, 09:50:58 pm
Full cross tabs are being released tomorrow.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: NOVA Green on November 01, 2016, 09:51:42 pm
How stupid are people Red Hacks of Iowa Atlas? @ Mr. Trump

::)


This election is over!!!!!1111

Look at the poll's methodology and find the flaw. I've been pointing out important methodological factors towards the credibility of this poll. Rather than hurling personal insults en masse, go and find something to discuss.

Don't wrestle with pigs, Arch. I must ask you, though, that R crossover #....there's just no way, is there? There aren't enough Latino Rs to make that a reality. FL educated white crossover just can't be that high, right?

It's actually absolutely plausible and jives with what the Latino Poll has been finding with Hispanic voter numbers in FL that weren't reflected in typical polling, and I'll tell you why. Two reasons:

1) New Puerto Rican population influx over the years (heavy D)
2) Cuban Republicans (one of the most R Hispanic communities in the US) splitting tickets at the top because Trump is just that toxic

Cuban Republicans are a major reason why FL is still competitive for Republicans despite the huge Hispanic population. The crossover vote reveals what would happen to FL if R Cubans crossed over completely, which is something that has been happening cross-generationally, but not with the more reliable older voters who are splitting tickets this year.

I'm not going to put FL in the bag quite yet, however EV numbers appear to indicate an enormous growth of first-time GE voters, as well as some irregulars thrown in, and yes you are absolutely correct that FL will look more like a D +4 -5 State IF there is a dramatic collapse of Cuban Republican support, combined with a massive influx of Puerto Rican voters, as well as Mexican-Americans and Latinos from the Islands voting in large numbers.... not to mention a not small grab-bag of Angry Anglo Women, that would not infrequently vote Republican in Presidential Elections, that don't like what they see in 2016.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 01, 2016, 09:55:05 pm
Scott Tranter, who is on "Team Rubio Analytics", just threw out this curveball of a tweet that has even experts in his comment section putting up question marks:

Quote
@jmartNYT
Whoa, @tbonier just said on @Lawrence the @_TargetSmart survey of FL early/absentee vote has Hillary winning 28% of reg Rs.
Quote
@stranter Scott Tranter

Surprised it took this long for one of these to leak


Wuh...


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 09:57:14 pm
Full cross tabs are being released tomorrow.

Ok... So it seems like noone but me who actually looked at poll pdf. Everyone's just been screaming -- crosstabs... Lol

What we have is EV 55/38 to Clinton vs non-EV 43/42 to Trump.

And
Quote
Whoa, @tbonier just said on @Lawrence the @_TargetSmart survey of FL early/absentee vote has Hillary winning 28% of reg Rs

Is it really much more believable than SUSA:s ?

Oooook...


And the last one crosstabs Nate Cohn answered almost directly...
Quote
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  24m24 minutes ago Washington, DC
In North Caroilna--where we have favorable polls for Clinton--Trump leads 80-10 among reg GOP voters who have voted early, per state records


 Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  27m27 minutes ago Washington, DC
Across the five Upshot/Siena polls of NC/FL/PA, Trump led 79 to 9 percent among registered Republicans. Margin was 80-8 percent in Florida.

 Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  30m30 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton's not winning 28% of registered Republican early voters in Florida. Just saying.

All right...

And I am the one who is spamming, rrright?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2016, 09:58:40 pm
LOL, about as believable as the NC poll.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Ronnie on November 01, 2016, 10:01:46 pm
Scott Tranter, who is on "Team Rubio Analytics", just threw out this curveball of a tweet that has even experts in his comment section putting up question marks:

Quote
@jmartNYT
Whoa, @tbonier just said on @Lawrence the @_TargetSmart survey of FL early/absentee vote has Hillary winning 28% of reg Rs.
Quote
@stranter Scott Tranter

Surprised it took this long for one of these to leak


Wuh...

It probably means that he's seen data like that for a long time.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2016, 10:02:03 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Ozymandias on November 01, 2016, 10:07:10 pm
Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

Actually, they do-- NBC/Marist and Emerson both also show Clinton up among early voter by 15-18 points, and given Republican early voting numbers, that could only have happened with significant Republican crossover...


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Flake on November 01, 2016, 10:09:26 pm
Lolno


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 01, 2016, 10:10:09 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: TC 25 on November 01, 2016, 10:10:58 pm
Not believable.

If it's anywhere close to true, the campaigns have both been wasting time in Florida.

Trump would be better off camping out in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 10:11:17 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

That's not how the share of Republican voters works in FL.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2016, 10:11:39 pm
Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

Actually, they do-- NBC/Marist and Emerson both also show Clinton up among early voter by 15-18 points, and given Republican early voting numbers, that could only have happened with significant Republican crossover...

And do their early voting samples actually match the real life demographics?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: WI is Safe D on November 01, 2016, 10:13:02 pm
I think 11/1/2016 will forever go down as "Spooky Tuesday" in Presidential polling history.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 01, 2016, 10:13:18 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

That's not how the share of Republican voters works in FL.

Obama won 8% of the Republican vote in FL in 2012.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 01, 2016, 10:15:13 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

That's not how the share of Republican voters works in FL.

Obama won 8% of the Republican vote in FL in 2012.

Romney was not repulsive to the Hispanic community to anywhere near the same degree, and a good chunk of R voters in FL are Hispanics as well.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Ozymandias on November 01, 2016, 10:16:56 pm
If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

I think you're misunderstanding the results.

TargetSmart isn't claiming that Clinton is going to win 28% of ALL registered Republicans, just that she's won 28% of the roughly 43% (give or take) of Republicans who have already voted early.

Presumably that's because a lot of the Republicans who are actually angry enough to vote against Trump (as opposed to not voting at all) were motivated to do so early.

But if Hillary only gets, say, 7% of the remaining 57% of Republican votes, than she'll wind up with roughly 16% of the overall registered Republican vote.

Which is still a lot, but not necessarily unbelievable due to the large number of Cuban-American Republicans.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Crumpets on November 01, 2016, 10:18:30 pm
538 just adjusted this to Clinton +6. They also give it relatively little weight.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fargobison on November 01, 2016, 10:20:31 pm
Remind me again why this is more believable than the NC poll showing Trump up 7?

Both are outliers, but at least these cross tabs are some what believable.

Hillary winning 28% of Republicans is not believable. Literally no other poll shows anything even remotely similar to this.

If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

I don't think this is something you can carry over to other states, a lot of it would unique to FL with the Cuban population.

It does make sense that it would be inflated with early voting. Rubio is going to turn out a lot of Cuban voters. Clinton is probably targeting them as well.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 10:22:47 pm
If Clinton is winning 28% of Republicans, she will win 40-45 states (including Texas). It means either this poll is wrong or every other poll is.

I think you're misunderstanding the results.

TargetSmart isn't claiming that Clinton is going to win 28% of ALL registered Republicans, just that she's won 28% of the roughly 43% (give or take) of Republicans who have already voted early.

Presumably that's because a lot of the Republicans who are actually angry enough to vote against Trump (as opposed to not voting at all) were motivated to do so early.

But if Hillary only gets, say, 7% of the remaining 57% of Republican votes, than she'll wind up with roughly 16% of the overall registered Republican vote.

Which is still a lot, but not necessarily unbelievable due to the large number of Cuban-American Republicans.

This is a good and important point that allloootttt of people don't seem to be taking into account.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: nirvanayoda on November 01, 2016, 10:31:34 pm
538 just adjusted this to Clinton +6. They also give it relatively little weight.

How did this poll push Trump's odds UP from 30.3 to 30.5% in their Nowcast?  I don't believe this poll, but I also don't see how the data point actually *helps* Trump.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2016, 10:33:51 pm
538 just adjusted this to Clinton +6. They also give it relatively little weight.

How did this poll push Trump's odds UP from 30.3 to 30.5% in their Nowcast?  I don't believe this poll, but I also don't see how the data point actually *helps* Trump.

Because Nate Silver is a joke. Nothing will surprise me coming from the guy who thought Rhode Island was a swing state based off a junky Emerson poll.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 10:35:18 pm
538 just adjusted this to Clinton +6. They also give it relatively little weight.

How did this poll push Trump's odds UP from 30.3 to 30.5% in their Nowcast?  I don't believe this poll, but I also don't see how the data point actually *helps* Trump.

Because Nate Silver is a joke. Nothing will surprise me coming from the guy who thought Rhode Island was a swing state based off a junky Emerson poll.

His model has gotten odd in the last month or so. Every poll seems to do something other than you expect it to in the model. Not sure the reason. His topline is still reasonable enough, but the day to day is usually ???


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on November 01, 2016, 10:40:40 pm
Wouldn't it be funny if this ended up being the equivalent of the IA-SEN 2014 Selzer poll? Not saying it will be, but it would be something.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 10:43:45 pm
How many has actually alredy voted in Florida. According to this poll is about 50%. Is it true?

            EV  non-EV
Clinton  (55  +  42)/2 = 48.5 = 48
Trump   (38  +  43)/2 = 40.5 = 40

And it is exactly what this polls shows 48 vs 40. WTF?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Ozymandias on November 01, 2016, 10:47:17 pm
How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).



Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 10:48:28 pm
How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).



Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 01, 2016, 10:50:33 pm
How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).



Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

It's really a surging phenomenon. From 2000 to now, it's absolutely exploded. It was 16% in 2000, it could flirt with 50% this year.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 01, 2016, 10:54:00 pm
How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).



Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

It's really a surging phenomenon. From 2000 to now, it's absolutely exploded. It was 16% in 2000, it could flirt with 50% this year.
I thought USA was behind Sweden :o
 In Sweden it is only 20-25%


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Crumpets on November 01, 2016, 10:54:31 pm
How many has actually alredy voted in Florida?

311 of 718 (43.3%) respondents in the TargetSmart poll are known to have voted early.

For comparison, as of this morning, 4,077,521 voters in FL have voted early, which is 48.1% of the TOTAL (early + election-day) vote in 2012 (8,474,134).



Wow, didn't know that EV was so popular in USA...

It's really a surging phenomenon. From 2000 to now, it's absolutely exploded. It was 16% in 2000, it could flirt with 50% this year.

It'd probably be less necessary if there were anywhere near the appropriate amount of polling locations and voting on election day didn't mean waiting in line for several hours.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 01, 2016, 11:41:32 pm
Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: TC 25 on November 01, 2016, 11:55:05 pm
Go ahead and believe this poll at your own peril.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IceSpear on November 01, 2016, 11:56:49 pm
Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.

Well, your reaction to this outlier was certainly more sane and measured than your reaction to the other one, LOL.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 02, 2016, 12:19:54 am
Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.

Well, your reaction to this outlier was certainly more sane and measured than your reaction to the other one, LOL.

I tend to react calmly to good news and more anxiously to bad news. It's part of a "better safe than sorry" mentality.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 12:58:42 am
They added the NC poll to RCP, but not this one. -eyeroll-


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Hammy on November 02, 2016, 01:18:07 am
They added the NC poll to RCP, but not this one. -eyeroll-

SurveyUSA is a better-known pollster so to me the move makes sense.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: JJC on November 02, 2016, 02:16:04 am
Two things:
- This is partially pre-Comey. I'd like to see the swing between the two periods if they have it.
- Even pre-Comey, this would have looked like an outlier. Outliers aren't worthless, though - especially in a State with lots of polls, throw them in the average and you'll tend to get a more accurate result.

Two things:
- It's a junk poll
- It's a junk poll


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Eraserhead on November 02, 2016, 04:00:59 am
Hmm, questionable to say the least.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 02, 2016, 04:19:59 am
Hmm, questionable to say the least.

I hate to be a realist 'concern troll', but a poll that shows a suspiciously good picture for Clinton is about as likely to be trash as one that shows a suspiciously good picture for Trump (as in SUSA's NC poll).

Although of course it's possible that, with her ground game, Clinton's suspiciously good polls may turn out to be more accurate than Trump's suspiciously good polls.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Donnie on November 02, 2016, 04:40:17 am
Clinton +8 in FL ? Rigging polls as last line of defence...this is pathetic.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Eraserhead on November 02, 2016, 04:57:32 am
Hmm, questionable to say the least.

I hate to be a realist 'concern troll', but a poll that shows a suspiciously good picture for Clinton is about as likely to be trash as one that shows a suspiciously good picture for Trump (as in SUSA's NC poll).

Although of course it's possible that, with her ground game, Clinton's suspiciously good polls may turn out to be more accurate than Trump's suspiciously good polls.

I tend to more or less trust SUSA because I'm familiar with their track record though.  What's W&M/TargetSmart's record look like?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Kalimantan on November 02, 2016, 06:21:40 am
I must ask you, though, that R crossover #....there's just no way, is there? There aren't enough Latino Rs to make that a reality. FL educated white crossover just can't be that high, right?

The R crossover has been a defining feature of this election, though. Time after time we're hearing about R's who won't vote for Trump, because he's a sex pest / racist / unqualified / not a conservative / in bed with Russia  / whatever reason. The NeverTrump movement has been a thing, candidates for congress have been running away, parts of FoxNews have turned on him.

At some point this has to actually show up in the results, right? It can't just be minorities who are switching? Everyone right now on here is just assuming that R's are voting Trump, that early voting number showing strong R turnout has to be for Trump? Is this really all because of Comey?

28% is high, obviously. My theory, fwiw, is that some Independents who are basically solid Republican voters are self-identifying as registered Republicans so they can demonstrate that they are switching across the aisle to vote for Clinton this election.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 06:23:12 am
Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm :)


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Lok on November 02, 2016, 06:48:24 am
Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm :)
Source for the claim?


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Brittain33 on November 02, 2016, 06:56:19 am
Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm :)
Source for the claim?

This isn't a controversial statement, they do consulting for Dems. It's googleable.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 06:57:21 am
Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm :)
Source for the claim?
I thought, Dems here said it in poll-hype thread?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/how-many-registered-voters-are-in-america-2016-229993
Quote
But TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, told POLITICO that
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-voting-irregularities-snap-story.html
Quote
On Tuesday, TargetSmart, a Democratic-affiliated group hired by Patriot Majority USA, said an analysis it ran of the Indiana
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/analysis-by-voter-group-finds-dead-people-likely-registered-in-indiana/
Quote
“There is clearly bad, missing and incomplete data,” said Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, which is affiliated with the Democratic Party.
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37634526
Quote
And though Democratic political data firm TargetSmart found that


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Lok on November 02, 2016, 07:07:08 am
Should it has (D) in the title, because it is a Democratic political data firm :)
Source for the claim?
I thought, Dems here said it in poll-hype thread?

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/10/how-many-registered-voters-are-in-america-2016-229993
Quote
But TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, told POLITICO that
http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-voting-irregularities-snap-story.html
Quote
On Tuesday, TargetSmart, a Democratic-affiliated group hired by Patriot Majority USA, said an analysis it ran of the Indiana
http://www.cbsnews.com/news/analysis-by-voter-group-finds-dead-people-likely-registered-in-indiana/
Quote
“There is clearly bad, missing and incomplete data,” said Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, which is affiliated with the Democratic Party.
http://www.bbc.com/news/election-us-2016-37634526
Quote
And though Democratic political data firm TargetSmart found that

Well, I never saw it in the hype thread, but you only needed to show one source.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: HillOfANight on November 02, 2016, 08:43:49 am
https://www.scribd.com/document/329698329/TargetSmart-William-Mary-Florida-Poll-of-Early-and-Likely-Voters

Crosstabs up.

Registered Republicans
Trump 74
Clinton 20

Registered Democrat
Trump 13
Clinton 84

Registered Unaffiliated
Trump 43
Clinton 44

White
Trump 54
Clinton 40

Hispanic
Trump 31
Clinton 62

Black
Trump 3
Clinton 96


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 08:47:02 am
Well, I never saw it in the hype thread, but you only needed to show one source.

LBP is young, immature, and thinks he's clever. The quicker you learn to just siphon the occasional good out of his posts and just move on from him, the better for your health.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 02, 2016, 08:47:37 am
Those... actually look reasonable


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: HokeyDood on November 02, 2016, 10:45:31 am
Those... actually look reasonable

Yes!  Great news!  Longtime Cuban Pubbies are abandoning the Trumpster like a makeshift raft taking on water!


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: IceSpear on November 03, 2016, 12:20:48 am
Those... actually look reasonable

I'll film myself drinking from a toilet bowl if Hillary wins 20% of Republicans in FL. It's not gonna happen.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 03, 2016, 12:21:11 am
Those... actually look reasonable

I'll film myself drinking from a toilet bowl if Hillary wins 20% of Republicans in FL. It's not gonna happen.

I'll hold you to this :P


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Kempros on November 03, 2016, 01:33:30 am
The RCP averages show a near 0 race in FL. If a poll showed T+8 here, there would be a freak show of comments about junk poll. Of course it shows C+8 and you see "omg, its happening".
-Logic


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Arch on November 03, 2016, 01:34:14 am
The RCP averages show a near 0 race in FL. If a poll showed T+8 here, there would be a freak show of comments about junk poll. Of course it shows C+8 and you see "omg, its happening".
-Logic

RCP also didn't include this poll in their average, but did include the ones that had Trump ahead.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Lok on November 03, 2016, 02:40:20 am
The RCP averages show a near 0 race in FL. If a poll showed T+8 here, there would be a freak show of comments about junk poll. Of course it shows C+8 and you see "omg, its happening".
-Logic
You have to learn to take RCP with a grain of salt, because they are MUCH more favorable to R leaning polls.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: EpicHistory on November 03, 2016, 03:10:50 am
They added the NC poll to RCP, but not this one. -eyeroll-

Because Suffolk is a well known pollster, and is also not affiliated with the Democrats like this group is.

Yes!  Great news!  Longtime Cuban Pubbies are abandoning the Trumpster like a makeshift raft taking on water!

I believe the term here is cognitive dissonance. You'll attack the poll that has Trump ahead in Ohio because it is from Trafalgar (Despite a new Quinnipac poll supporting it), but then celebrate an obvious Florida outlier by a Democratic pollster. This is the definition of a double standard.


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: SUSAN CRUSHBONE on November 03, 2016, 06:51:17 am
They added the NC poll to RCP, but not this one. -eyeroll-

Because Suffolk is a well known pollster, and is also not affiliated with the Democrats like this group is.

Yes!  Great news!  Longtime Cuban Pubbies are abandoning the Trumpster like a makeshift raft taking on water!

I believe the term here is cognitive dissonance. You'll attack the poll that has Trump ahead in Ohio because it is from Trafalgar (Despite a new Quinnipac poll supporting it), but then celebrate an obvious Florida outlier by a Democratic pollster. This is the definition of a double standard.
shove off. junk polls that favour clinton (e.g. the louisiana one with trump at only +3) are beïng criticised just as much, and you know it


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 12:29:28 pm
This data visualization is kind of interesting:

Tom Bonier ‏@tbonier  4m4 minutes ago
Here's a pretty cool dashboard with our latest FL poll results. Dig in.. play around with the models/sliders/maps. http://targetsmart.com/TSWMP-florida/


Title: Re: FL-W&M/TargetSmart: Clinton +8
Post by: TC 25 on November 17, 2016, 01:30:54 am
Well this poll was proven to be absolute garbage, despite Lawrence O'Donnell singing its praises to high heaven.