Talk Elections

As of the morning of November 1st, 2016, TargetSmart tracks that 3,695,359 people have already cast their votes in Florida. Leveraging TargetSmart’s proprietary voter file - that is updated daily through the early voting window - this poll reached a significant number of voters who have already participated. Among those early voters (who were asked which candidate they had voted for), Clinton outpaces Trump by a 17-point margin, 55 to 38 percent.

Reflective of the trends that have been published in other public polls in recent days, the TargetSmart/William & Mary poll shows the contest in Florida is very competitive among those who have yet to cast their ballot. Among those non-early voters (who were asked which candidate they will vote for), Clinton attracts 42 percent of the vote and 43 percent back Donald Trump. The poll also shows the U.S. Senate race tilting decidedly in Marco Rubio’s direction as Democratic challenger Patrick Murphy trails Rubio 43 to 49 percent. Unlike Clinton, Murphy only breaks even with early voters, having garnered 48 percent of the vote among them to Rubio’s 47 percent. And, among non-early voters, Rubio holds a solid lead with 51 percent of the vote to Murphy’s 39 percent.

The TargetSmart/William & Mary Poll was conducted using a blended web/phone data collection approach. As weighted, 530 online interviews were conducted from October 25-28, 2016 among panelists from six leading online opt-in panel providers who were matched to the TargetSmart voter file.  As weighted, 188 telephone interviews were conducted from October 27-30, 2016 to supplement the online sample, with telephone numbers for targeted populations being selected at random from the TargetSmart voter file.

@jmartNYT
Whoa, @tbonier just said on @Lawrence the @_TargetSmart survey of FL early/absentee vote has Hillary winning 28% of reg Rs.

@stranter Scott Tranter

Surprised it took this long for one of these to leak

Whoa, @tbonier just said on @Lawrence the @_TargetSmart survey of FL early/absentee vote has Hillary winning 28% of reg Rs

Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  24m24 minutes ago Washington, DC
In North Caroilna--where we have favorable polls for Clinton--Trump leads 80-10 among reg GOP voters who have voted early, per state records


 Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  27m27 minutes ago Washington, DC
Across the five Upshot/Siena polls of NC/FL/PA, Trump led 79 to 9 percent among registered Republicans. Margin was 80-8 percent in Florida.

 Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  30m30 minutes ago Washington, DC
Clinton's not winning 28% of registered Republican early voters in Florida. Just saying.

But TargetSmart, a Democratic political data firm, told POLITICO that

On Tuesday, TargetSmart, a Democratic-affiliated group hired by Patriot Majority USA, said an analysis it ran of the Indiana

“There is clearly bad, missing and incomplete data,” said Tom Bonier, the CEO of TargetSmart, which is affiliated with the Democratic Party.

And though Democratic political data firm TargetSmart found that