Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: amdcpus on November 02, 2016, 09:15:55 am



Title: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: amdcpus on November 02, 2016, 09:15:55 am
Clinton 45%

Trump 42%

Johnson 4%

Stein 2%

October 30 - November 1.

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/02/post-comey-poll-clinton-leads-three/


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: bilaps on November 02, 2016, 09:19:36 am
it's 46( no change)
      43 (+2) since the last poll


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 09:19:57 am
Only 27% thinks Clinton is honest and trustworthy.

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Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: StatesPoll on November 02, 2016, 09:20:13 am
 

Hillary ahead only +3% with D+21% Skewed samples? hahahaha

1288 RV: DEM 546 RV (42.4%) | REP 275 RV (21.35%) | IND 467 RV(36.25%)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0c8pv9xegd/econTabReport.pdf


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Dirty Dan on November 02, 2016, 09:22:01 am
It's 45 to 42, right?

Like I said, if there's no more major oppo research by the VRWC, she will win. Else, she's cooked.

Only 27% thinks Clinton is honest and trustworthy.

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Because she is a really (((Hillary Clinton))), amirite?


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: BundouYMB on November 02, 2016, 09:26:23 am
It seems 73% of the country are uninformed sheep who believe the mainstream media propaganda campaign against Clinton. Very sad.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 09:27:42 am
Looks good. Remember 2012 was D+4.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Dirty Dan on November 02, 2016, 09:29:36 am
Looks good. Remember 2012 was D+4.

If I had to guess, it will be

Clinton 49
Drumpf 46
Johnson 3
Stain 1
Mc Muffin .6
Others .4


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Pyro on November 02, 2016, 09:30:00 am
Only 27% thinks Clinton is honest and trustworthy.

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Those favorability #s sum up this entire election.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 02, 2016, 09:31:27 am
It seems 73% of the country are uninformed sheep who believe the mainstream media propaganda campaign against Clinton. Very sad.

Anyone who has been in national politics for as long as she has can't really be honest and trustworthy, regardless of what the mainstream media and the FBI say. I'd say the same about Obama, McCain, Biden etc. Trump as well, but he's another case.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: jaichind on November 02, 2016, 09:35:15 am
The YouGov model from

https://today.yougov.com/us-election/

has it Clinton ahead  47.7 to 44

I wounder if the YouGov model is being used to feed this poll or is it totally separate polling. 


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 02, 2016, 09:37:22 am
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Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 09:41:47 am
^^^^

Oh, they still have RV model.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 02, 2016, 09:44:40 am

If you look at the crosstab page, they also give a LV result, which is:

Clinton 46%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 02, 2016, 09:45:32 am
Dems
Clinton 90%
Trump 5%
Stein 1%
Johnson 0%

GOP
Trump 89%
Clinton 5%
Johnson 2%
Stein 0%

Indies
Trump 51%
Clinton 28%
Johnson 9%
Stein 3%

men: Trump +3
women: Clinton +7
under 30: Clinton +46
30-44: Clinton +9
45-64: Trump +5
65+: Trump +23
whites: Trump +20
blacks: Clinton +80
Hispanics: Clinton +55
under $50k: Clinton +15
$50-100k: Trump +12
over $100k: Clinton +5

So we have another poll with Trump doing better with those in the $50-100k income range than he does with those over $100k.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Torie on November 02, 2016, 09:48:42 am
"So we have another poll with Trump doing better with those in the $50-100k income range than he does with those over $100k."

Surely this does not shock you, correct?  It totally tracks the CW.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 02, 2016, 09:49:02 am
More crosstabs…

People who voted in the Dem. primaries:
Clinton 83%
Trump 9%
Stein 3%
Johnson 2%

People who voted in the GOP primaries:
Trump 82%
Clinton 8%
Johnson 5%
Stein 0%

People who supported Sanders in the primaries:
Clinton 68%
Trump 15%
Stein 7%
Johnson 4%

People who supported a Republican candidate other than Trump in the primaries:
Trump 70%
Clinton 11%
Johnson 9%
Stein 0%

97% of those who backed Clinton in the primary still back her in the GE.  97% of those who backed Trump in the primary still back him in the GE.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 09:50:53 am

If you look at the crosstab page, they also give a LV result, which is:

Clinton 46%
Trump 43%
Johnson 4%
Stein 2%


Ok. Thanks. Still intresting that they think RV model is better (since it's numbers are in the toplines and the graph)


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 02, 2016, 09:52:41 am
"So we have another poll with Trump doing better with those in the $50-100k income range than he does with those over $100k."

Surely this does not shock you, correct?  It totally tracks the CW.

No, it doesn't shock me, but it is a brand new thing, compared to past elections.  In 2008, the Obama/McCain margin was the same for those in the middle income group as for the upper income group, if we trust the exit polls.  But in every other presidential election since the dawn of polling, the GOP candidate's best income group was the rich.  So to see the GOP candidate actually do better with the middle income group would be totally new.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: bilaps on November 02, 2016, 09:53:57 am
but Trump wining 2% more of those who voted for other candidate in R primary than Clinton of those who voted for other candidate in D primary

also, one of 2 things isn't true:

a) Trump winning indies 23%
b) Trump losing horserace number

So either Trump isn't winning these indies so much or Yougov should be ashamed of their D-R-I screen


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: jaichind on November 02, 2016, 10:06:26 am


Hillary ahead only +3% with D+21% Skewed samples? hahahaha

1288 RV: DEM 546 RV (42.4%) | REP 275 RV (21.35%) | IND 467 RV(36.25%)

https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/0c8pv9xegd/econTabReport.pdf


Along the same lines, this poll has Generic Congressional vote as Dem +5.  I so it seems that Trump is over performing the generic GOP as per this poll.  And while I doubt the Generic Congressional Vote is Dem +5 but if it is then Trump for sure loses and Dems recapture Senate by a significant margin along with retaking the House.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 02, 2016, 10:12:14 am
but Trump wining 2% more of those who voted for other candidate in R primary than Clinton of those who voted for other candidate in D primary

But Republicans who backed a candidate other than Trump make up a larger share of the party than Dems who backed a candidate other than Clinton.  After all, Clinton won ~55% of the Dem. primary vote and Trump only won ~45% of the GOP primary vote.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Dirty Dan on November 02, 2016, 10:12:23 am
So yeah, this poll can be unskewed the sh**t out of but it holds up.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Ebsy on November 02, 2016, 12:12:22 pm
I don't believe the favorability numbers at all.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Torie on November 02, 2016, 12:48:39 pm
"So we have another poll with Trump doing better with those in the $50-100k income range than he does with those over $100k."

Surely this does not shock you, correct?  It totally tracks the CW.

No, it doesn't shock me, but it is a brand new thing, compared to past elections.  In 2008, the Obama/McCain margin was the same for those in the middle income group as for the upper income group, if we trust the exit polls.  But in every other presidential election since the dawn of polling, the GOP candidate's best income group was the rich.  So to see the GOP candidate actually do better with the middle income group would be totally new.


Putting aside that many rich might perceive that Trump has temperament issues, it's also brand new that a Pub candidate advocates policies (to the extent he has any that are other than just idle talking point jive) that would screw the rich too.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Dirty Dan on November 02, 2016, 12:54:49 pm
"So we have another poll with Trump doing better with those in the $50-100k income range than he does with those over $100k."

Surely this does not shock you, correct?  It totally tracks the CW.

No, it doesn't shock me, but it is a brand new thing, compared to past elections.  In 2008, the Obama/McCain margin was the same for those in the middle income group as for the upper income group, if we trust the exit polls.  But in every other presidential election since the dawn of polling, the GOP candidate's best income group was the rich.  So to see the GOP candidate actually do better with the middle income group would be totally new.


Putting aside that many rich might perceive that Trump has temperament issues, it's also brand new that a Pub candidate advocates policies (to the extent he has any that are other than just idle talking point jive) that would screw the rich too.
Who would actually benefit from from teh Donald save Big Oil? I would say unions but...


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 01:41:18 pm
"So we have another poll with Trump doing better with those in the $50-100k income range than he does with those over $100k."

Surely this does not shock you, correct?  It totally tracks the CW.

Trump has always done better with middle class voters - it's been his base.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: Mr. Morden on November 02, 2016, 01:43:37 pm
"So we have another poll with Trump doing better with those in the $50-100k income range than he does with those over $100k."

Surely this does not shock you, correct?  It totally tracks the CW.

Trump has always done better with middle class voters - it's been his base.

There have definitely been *some* polls that have him doing best with the wealthiest income group, but most of them seem to have him doing best with the middle.  But I haven't systematically looked at every single poll to track this.  I'll be interested to see what the national exit poll looks like on this question.


Title: Re: YouGov/Economist National Poll: Clinton +3
Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 02, 2016, 02:23:40 pm
Acceptable.