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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: jaichind on November 02, 2016, 11:06:47 am



Title: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: jaichind on November 02, 2016, 11:06:47 am
CNN/ORC polls: AZ: Trump 49 Clinton 44 NV: Trump 49 Clinton 43 FL: Clinton 49 Trump 47 PA Clinton 48 Trump 44

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and pA
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 02, 2016, 11:07:25 am
Not as bad as I was expecting. 


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and pA
Post by: Ronnie on November 02, 2016, 11:07:44 am
Nevada is ridiculous based on what we know about early voting, but the rest look plausible.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: jaichind on November 02, 2016, 11:08:06 am
NV looks off given the other numbers.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Platitudes And Senility on November 02, 2016, 11:08:07 am
CNN/ORC polls: AZ: Trump 49 Clinton 44 NV: Trump 49 Clinton 43 FL: Clinton 49 Trump 47 PA Clinton 48 Trump 44

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html

Switch the numbers in FL, and take a point or two off Hillary's % in PA and it looks right.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 02, 2016, 11:09:01 am
NV to the right of AZ! #MNVGA


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Mike88 on November 02, 2016, 11:09:06 am
The NV result is weird. All the rest seems plausible.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 11:09:18 am
NV is already practically secured, but we know how horrible NV polls are in general so w/e.

Clinton lead in FL and PA, of course, are great news overall.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 11:09:59 am
()


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 02, 2016, 11:10:10 am
CNN/ORC polls: AZ: Trump 49 Clinton 44 NV: Trump 49 Clinton 43 FL: Clinton 49 Trump 47 PA Clinton 48 Trump 44

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html
CNN leans right so this is good.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and pA
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 11:11:00 am
Compared to previous:


8/23 AZ:

Trump nc
Clinton nc

9/12 FL:

Trump -3
Clinton +3

9/25 PA

Trump -3
Clinton -2

10/15 NV:

Trump +3
Clinton -7 (???)



Only positive movement for Trump is in NV, which....looks a bit odd, to say the least.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Xing on November 02, 2016, 11:11:24 am
Pity about AZ, but if they find Hillary down 6 in NV, maybe she does still have a chance there. NV polls are gonna NV poll, people. It's not a Trump state.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 02, 2016, 11:11:28 am
Also Rubio is up only one in the poll.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 11:12:04 am
CNN/ORC polls: AZ: Trump 49 Clinton 44 NV: Trump 49 Clinton 43 FL: Clinton 49 Trump 47 PA Clinton 48 Trump 44

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html
CNN leans right so this is good.
No. All CNN:s poll was adjusted +1 to Trump by 538 so far. Let see what happen to those.

Good news for Trump.
Clear D-lean :P


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 11:12:49 am
Those NV numbers are a joke.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 02, 2016, 11:14:27 am
Ignoring the obviously garbage result in NV, great results for Clinton! Especially considering CNN's heavy R lean.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Platitudes And Senility on November 02, 2016, 11:15:22 am
All it takes is a white with no college degree surge on election day voting and NV is back in play.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: The Other Castro on November 02, 2016, 11:16:58 am
All it takes is a white with no college degree surge on election day voting and NV is back in play.

Luckily there are no indications in registration numbers or otherwise that imply such an occurrence.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 11:17:39 am
CNN/ORC polls: AZ: Trump 49 Clinton 44 NV: Trump 49 Clinton 43 FL: Clinton 49 Trump 47 PA Clinton 48 Trump 44

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html
CNN leans right so this is good.


No. All CNN:s poll was adjusted +1 to Trump by 538 so far. Let see what happen to those.

Good news for Trump.
Clear D-lean :P

Quote
Nate said something about a 2-3 point R house effect for CNN, if I remember correctly?    

Quote
That's correct. CNN polls have been for Trump than the average poll.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: EliteLX on November 02, 2016, 11:20:19 am
Time travel a year back to early 2016 Atlas and tell somebody that in the final week we would be seeing NV numbers to the right of Arizona, Utah is a toss-up, and OH and FL are almost showing to the right of North Carolina.

You would be beaten with a virtual bat.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 11:21:07 am
All it takes is a white with no college degree surge on election day voting and NV is back in play.

Luckily there are no indications in registration numbers or otherwise that imply such an occurrence.
The turnout among non-educated registred voters was low, IIRC. So IF Trump manages to get a highet turnout among those, he might win.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: The Other Castro on November 02, 2016, 11:21:32 am
Lol @ Toomey underperforming Trump. Stick a fork in him.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: heatcharger on November 02, 2016, 11:21:48 am
We already had enough garbage polls in the past few days, so CNN decided to add their own.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: SunSt0rm on November 02, 2016, 11:22:29 am
Polls seems reasonable with the exception of Nevada


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 11:23:10 am
a 6 point lead in Nevada? rofl. Aren't the GOP burning up rural voters in early voting?

also lol Pennsylvania

But otherwise this looks kind of reasonable.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 11:23:47 am
Quote
Nate said something about a 2-3 point R house effect for CNN, if I remember correctly?    

Quote
That's correct. CNN polls have been for Trump than the average poll.
Just look at
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

They add 1% to CNN:s last polls.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Dirty Dan on November 02, 2016, 11:24:16 am
I would truly believe this if they flipper Florida and Nevada.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: The Other Castro on November 02, 2016, 11:24:57 am
They have Trump +1 in Clark County....in the trash you go.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 11:25:07 am
Quote
Nate said something about a 2-3 point R house effect for CNN, if I remember correctly?    

Quote
That's correct. CNN polls have been for Trump than the average poll.
Just look at
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

They add 1% to CNN:s last polls.

It is from the man himself.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 11:25:35 am
Trump up by 1 in Clark County, yeah this isn't the best poll.

Wait....really? Lol.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: jaichind on November 02, 2016, 11:25:45 am
Quote
Nate said something about a 2-3 point R house effect for CNN, if I remember correctly?    

Quote
That's correct. CNN polls have been for Trump than the average poll.
Just look at
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

They add 1% to CNN:s last polls.

Yes, but I believe 538 make adjustments not just on its derived House effects of the pollster but also on how far off the poll result is from peer poll results. I know this methodology will lead to herding but that seems to be how 538 is doing it.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 02, 2016, 11:26:05 am
Trump up by 1 in Clark County, yeah this isn't the best poll.

Wait....really? Lol.
Yeah, just looked. 


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 11:26:14 am
Quote
Nate said something about a 2-3 point R house effect for CNN, if I remember correctly?    

Quote
That's correct. CNN polls have been for Trump than the average poll.
Just look at
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

They add 1% to CNN:s last polls.

It is from the man himself.
And I was talking about their model.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 11:26:27 am
They have Trump +1 in Clark County....in the trash you go.

Lmao!


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 11:26:54 am
Quote
Nate said something about a 2-3 point R house effect for CNN, if I remember correctly?    

Quote
That's correct. CNN polls have been for Trump than the average poll.
Just look at
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

They add 1% to CNN:s last polls.

It is from the man himself.
And I was talking about their model.

Which is sh**t, but we knew that already.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Kalimantan on November 02, 2016, 11:27:45 am
damn, this election, there is just no narrative coming out of these polls at all


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: The Other Castro on November 02, 2016, 11:27:56 am

Like, this isn't even a matter of polling outliers. That is just physically impossible to occur.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 11:28:12 am
Quote
Nate said something about a 2-3 point R house effect for CNN, if I remember correctly?    

Quote
That's correct. CNN polls have been for Trump than the average poll.
Just look at
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/nevada/
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/

They add 1% to CNN:s last polls.

Yes, but I believe 538 make adjustments not just on its derived House effects of the pollster but also on how far off the poll result is from peer poll results. I know this methodology will lead to herding but that seems to be how 538 is doing it.
I don't really understand. CNN is too Trumpy, so 538 are adding 1% to him and it lead to hearding?


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: mark_twain on November 02, 2016, 11:29:18 am

FL looks very good, considering the favorable early votes for Clinton.



Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 11:30:42 am
Quote
Wait, I've been off Twitter for two hours and I see CNN has a poll showing Trump up 6 in NV? That's insane. I'll look at it later, tweeps


Quote
In CNN poll, Trump leads Clinton in Clark County by 1: 46-45. There's more chance that Sheldon Adelson gives $500 million to Priorities USA.

As expected, Ralston calls bullsh**t.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Dr. RI on November 02, 2016, 11:40:00 am
Crosstabs can be wonky without affecting the accuracy of the topline, which converges much faster.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: EliteLX on November 02, 2016, 11:42:46 am
15% of Pennsylvania voters, 11% of Florida voters, comfortable changing their mind by time November 8th comes around.

Very big deal.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 11:43:22 am
Here's the CNN Nevada poll data: http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf

Anyone see early voting crosstabs?


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 11:44:20 am
15% of Pennsylvania voters, 11% of Florida voters, comfortable changing their mind by time November 7th comes around.

Very big deal.
??? Is it normal? Sounds like way too high to me.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: rafta_rafta on November 02, 2016, 11:44:46 am
Clinton is going to win NV. 


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Brittain33 on November 02, 2016, 11:46:22 am
This is rich. Apparently the Hispanic sample in the CNN NV poll was too small to list cross-tab data for Clinton vs. Kaine.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Brittain33 on November 02, 2016, 11:47:45 am
From twitter: Also: NV: no 18-34 sample. PA: no 18-34 sample. AZ: no 18-49(!!) sample. FL: no 18-49 (!!) sample


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: bilaps on November 02, 2016, 11:47:59 am
clinton hacks accept the result of a poll bbbbut only not one part of poll which is bad for clinton. how surprising.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 11:48:54 am
Here's the rest of the poll data:

AZ - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relaz2.pdf
FL - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relfl3.pdf
PA - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relpa2.pdf

And I'll repost NV here for convenience:

NV - http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 11:50:04 am
clinton hacks accept the result of a poll bbbbut only not one part of poll which is bad for clinton. how surprising.

Do you accept the NV result given what we know about the early vote so far?


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: dspNY on November 02, 2016, 11:51:01 am
Nevada is definitely wrong. The other three look close to right. Clinton with a Florida lead in a CNN poll is very big because CNN has a heavy Trump lean due to Jeff Zucker. I think Arizona is also a couple of points tilted to Trump.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 11:51:39 am
Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  24m24 minutes ago
Gary Johnson down in all of these CNN polls. From 12% to 5% in AZ. From 6% to 3% in FL. From 6% to 4% in PA. People are coming home.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 11:52:04 am
Quote
Nate Cohn ‏@Nate_Cohn  55s56 seconds ago Washington, DC
Looks like it'll be another year with a big, GOP-leaning polling error in Nevada
Hehe


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 11:53:44 am
Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  20m20 minutes ago
Here are the Senate results from those new CNN/ORC polls:

FL: Rubio 49-48%
NV: Heck 49-47%
PA: McGinty 51-46%
AZ: McCain 52-39%


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: calvinhobbesliker on November 02, 2016, 11:54:29 am
Poll in PA doesn't even have a large enough sample in freaking PHILADELPHIA!


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 02, 2016, 11:54:44 am
ralston did just crucify the NV poll.....

nearly no hispanics and gop even in clark county....pure madness.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 11:56:46 am
Jon Ralston ‏@RalstonReports  8m8 minutes ago
I'm also puzzled -- and this happened before -- why CNN doesn't have big enough sample of Latinos to break them out in crosstabs. Red flag.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Mike88 on November 02, 2016, 11:57:15 am
ralston did just crucify the NV poll.....

nearly no hispanics and gop even in clark county....pure madness.

Yep.

https://twitter.com/PeterHamby/status/793853660405137408

()


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 11:58:07 am
ralston did just crucify the NV poll.....

nearly no hispanics and gop even in clark county....pure madness.

Yep.

https://twitter.com/PeterHamby/status/793853660405137408

()

What is CNN doing?


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Dr. RI on November 02, 2016, 11:58:42 am
CNN is often overly cautious with their subsamples.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Brittain33 on November 02, 2016, 11:59:42 am
Yes, I'm rethinking this. If whites in NV are breaking 59%-33% for Trump then there has to be a sizable non-white sample to get their topline. How large is the AA and AAPI population in NV relative to Hispanic?


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 02, 2016, 12:00:05 pm
I would truly believe this if they flipper Florida and Nevada.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 12:00:49 pm
ralston did just crucify the NV poll.....

nearly no hispanics and gop even in clark county....pure madness.

Yep.

https://twitter.com/PeterHamby/status/793853660405137408

()

What is CNN doing?

They are cheap.

NV is a state where you really need to spend money to get proper polling.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Mike88 on November 02, 2016, 12:01:38 pm
Yes, I'm rethinking this. If whites in NV are breaking 59%-33% for Trump then there has to be a sizable non-white sample to get their topline. How large is the AA and AAPI population in NV relative to Hispanic?

Hispanics are just less than 30% while AA are at 8%. Only 54% is white.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Ebsy on November 02, 2016, 12:16:14 pm
lol the junk level of that Nevada poll is off the charts.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 02, 2016, 12:39:48 pm
Well, CNN is really going to embarrass themselves with that Nevada poll. Not that they're new to embarrassment.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 02, 2016, 12:40:56 pm
From twitter: Also: NV: no 18-34 sample. PA: no 18-34 sample. AZ: no 18-49(!!) sample. FL: no 18-49 (!!) sample
Why does this keep happening?!


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 02, 2016, 12:58:00 pm
Nevada? lolno


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: afleitch on November 02, 2016, 01:11:04 pm
I decided to look at Nevada's Latino sample.

Hispanic: N/A

It's probably in the 'Non-White' but come on...



Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Admiral Kizaru on November 02, 2016, 01:18:48 pm
damn, this election, there is just no narrative coming out of these polls at all

Yeah I agree; they're all over the place and rather confusing.


I'm with TNvolunteer .... just going to wait till election night and see what happens. 


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: SirMuxALot on November 02, 2016, 01:28:42 pm
a 6 point lead in Nevada? rofl. Aren't the GOP burning up rural voters in early voting?

Herein I learn that strong EV for Dems indicates election day strength and lock win for Clinton. 

Herein I also learn that strong EV for Reps indicates cannibalization and a lock win for Clinton.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 02, 2016, 01:31:49 pm
Ignoring the obviously garbage result in NV, great results for Clinton! Especially considering CNN's heavy R lean.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 01:32:18 pm
a 6 point lead in Nevada? rofl. Aren't the GOP burning up rural voters in early voting?

Herein I learn that strong EV for Dems indicates election day strength and lock win for Clinton. 

Herein I also learn that strong EV for Reps indicates cannibalization and a lock win for Clinton.

well Democrats have a strong EV there (Dem lead is substantial) AND the areas that are going better for GOP voters are cannibalizing votes (rural areas are the only areas of the state going much better for Trump than other parts of the state). I don't see how both can't be true.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Beef on November 02, 2016, 01:46:36 pm
Time travel a year back to early 2016 Atlas and tell somebody that in the final week we would be seeing NV numbers to the right of Arizona, Utah is a toss-up, and OH and FL are almost showing to the right of North Carolina.

You would be beaten with a virtual bat.

Perhaps, but had someone predicted this with Trump as the GOP nominee, it wouldn't have been entirely preposterous.  Remember #BattlegroundNewJersey?


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Hammy on November 02, 2016, 01:57:30 pm
Pennsylvania basically about what I expected, Arizona is disappointing, Florida is a bit of a relief. As far as Nevada, while much closer than 2012, I'm having a hard time believing the polls there (regardless of who is up) given the 5-10 point swings in either direction we keep seeing from poll to poll.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 05, 2016, 09:39:45 am
Will this NV poll be amongst the worst done this cycle?


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Dirty Dan on November 05, 2016, 09:41:10 am
Will this NV poll be amongst the worst done this cycle?

There was a poll in 2004 which had Bush up 8 as a final answer. This could be something like that.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 05, 2016, 09:44:23 am
Will this NV poll be amongst the worst done this cycle?

There was a poll in 2004 which had Bush up 8 as a final answer. This could be something like that.

Not to get ahead of myself, but at least they got the correct winner right. If early voters pan out, this could be off by double digits.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Dirty Dan on November 05, 2016, 09:52:09 am
Will this NV poll be amongst the worst done this cycle?

There was a poll in 2004 which had Bush up 8 as a final answer. This could be something like that.

Not to get ahead of myself, but at least they got the correct winner right. If early voters pan out, this could be off by double digits.

Sorry. It was a state poll for Wisconsin. But that is a big thing for HRC that you are getting at. There haven't been any elections since at least 1948 where the polls on the whole were just black and white wrong.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 10:21:11 am
IDK, Trump has indeed ties to Nevada. Polls are probably wrong, but he clearly has better chanses than Romney or McCain.

year       RCP          Final             
2008    O+6.5        O+12.5 
       
2012    O+2.8        O+6.7
2016     T+2.0           ???


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Dirty Dan on November 05, 2016, 10:28:49 am
IDK, Trump has indeed ties to Nevada. Polls are probably wrong, but he clearly has better chanses than Romney or McCain.

year       RCP          Final             
2008    O+6.5        O+12.5 
       
2012    O+2.8        O+6.7
2016     T+2.0           ???

It could be close. Or the people Hillary relies more on aren't really supposed to vote or maybe there will be a bunch of Bubbas and his buddies in the tailgate of us pickup on Tuesday.


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 05, 2016, 11:12:52 am
still my fav Nevada result the past few years...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html#polls


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: Dakota Devil on November 05, 2016, 12:05:05 pm
still my fav Nevada result the past few years...

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2010/senate/nv/nevada_senate_angle_vs_reid-1517.html#polls

I remember this.  It was marvelous!

Edit:  Also, this for those who haven't seen it yet:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/nevada-early-vote_us_581d5e39e4b0e80b02ca43d0?section=us_politics


Title: Re: CNN/ORC polls: Trump ahead AZ NV, Clinton ahead FL and PA
Post by: President Johnson on November 05, 2016, 12:12:03 pm
Not bad, but Hillary is not that much behind in Nevada. I think she's goingto win there.