Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: Castro on November 02, 2016, 11:36:16 am



Title: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: Castro on November 02, 2016, 11:36:16 am
FL: Rubio 49%, Murphy 48%
NV: Heck 49, Cortez-Masto 47%
PA: McGinty 51, Toomey 46%
AZ: McCain 52, Kirkpatrick 39%

Quote
The CNN/ORC polls were conducted by telephone Oct. 27-Nov. 1. Results reflect interviews with 867 registered voters and 769 likely voters in Arizona, 884 registered voters and 773 likely voters in Florida, 860 registered voters and 790 likely voters in Nevada and 917 registered voters and 799 likely voters in Pennsylvania. Results among likely voters have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 percentage points in each state.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/11/02/politics/polls-hillary-clinton-donald-trump-florida-pennsylvania-nevada-arizona/index.html


Title: Re: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 02, 2016, 11:37:27 am
Rubio, McGinty and McCain will win. NV will go down to the wire.


Title: Re: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: swf541 on November 02, 2016, 11:39:02 am
Rubio, McGinty and McCain will win. NV will go down to the wire.

The massive r bias in the nv cnn poll, if Heck is underperforming Trump its quite bad news for him


Title: Re: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: Castro on November 02, 2016, 11:40:14 am
Rubio, McGinty and McCain will win. NV will go down to the wire.

The massive r bias in the nv cnn poll, if Heck is underperforming Trump its quite bad news for him

The NV poll just seems very junky in general, I wouldn't try to take any meaning from it.


Title: Re: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 02, 2016, 11:43:41 am
Rubio, McGinty and McCain will win. NV will go down to the wire.

The massive r bias in the nv cnn poll, if Heck is underperforming Trump its quite bad news for him

It's one poll. When you look at the polling average, the race is still very competitive. (not xingkerui)


Title: Re: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: KingSweden on November 02, 2016, 11:44:14 am
It's been a long time since I saw Toomey ahead in any poll. Hack McGinty may just pull this off!


Title: Re: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: heatcharger on November 02, 2016, 11:59:56 am
If Quinnipiac doesn't show Toomey ahead, he's done.


Title: Re: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on November 02, 2016, 12:10:47 pm
If a Trump +6 poll only shows Heck up by 2, he's done. Democrats have 48 seats in the bag, and PA looks like it might be number 49.


Title: FL: CNN/ORC: Rubio and Murphy Close in Florida
Post by: Dave Leip on November 02, 2016, 12:19:23 pm
New Poll: Florida Senator by CNN/ORC on 2016-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=12320161101219)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relfl3.pdf)


Title: AZ: CNN/ORC: McCan with Comfortable Lead in Arizona
Post by: Dave Leip on November 02, 2016, 12:20:45 pm
New Poll: Arizona Senator by CNN/ORC on 2016-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4320161101219)

Summary: D: 41%, R: 54%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relfl3.pdf)


Title: Re: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: DavidB. on November 02, 2016, 12:23:31 pm
I'm the worst R pessimist on this forum, but Rubio really isn't going to overperform Trump by only 2.


Title: NV: CNN/ORC: Close Race in Nevada for US Senate
Post by: Dave Leip on November 02, 2016, 12:23:52 pm
New Poll: Nevada Senator by CNN/ORC on 2016-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=32320161101219)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 49%, I: 0%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relnv3.pdf)


Title: PA: CNN/ORC: McGinty Leading Toomey in Pennsylvania
Post by: Dave Leip on November 02, 2016, 12:25:04 pm
New Poll: Pennsylvania Senator by CNN/ORC on 2016-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/SENATE/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=42320161101219)

Summary: D: 51%, R: 46%, I: 1%, U: 3%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2016/images/11/02/relpa2.pdf)


Title: Re: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: Shadows on November 02, 2016, 02:11:53 pm
I think Rubio will comfortably win at 4-5% & NV is a pure toss-up.

The NV poll has Trump at +6% which is way too generous.
FL has Clinton at +2%, I think Trump is ahead by 1-2% now at FL.

In the end I think Masto will win NV by 1-2% in a razor thin margin. Mcginty has got this.



Title: Re: FL/NV/PA/AZ-CNN: Rubio +1, Heck +2, McGinty +5, McCain +13
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 02, 2016, 02:20:36 pm
I doubt CCM is outperforming Clinton, but if she stays close enough, she should win this.