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Title: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 12:01:00 PM Among 403 LVs, Oct 29-Nov 1st:
Clinton 48 (-2) Trump 44 (+4) https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_110216/ Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Brittain33 on November 02, 2016, 12:01:40 PM Good numbers for McGinty in this poll - basically mirroring Presidential race.
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 12:01:49 PM Benjy Sarlin @BenjySarlin 2m2 minutes ago
NEW Monmouth poll of PA: Clinton 48 (-2) Trump 44 (+4) Senate: McGinty 47 Toomey 44 Poll taken Oct 29-Nov 1, so roughly at Peak Comey. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: swf541 on November 02, 2016, 12:02:01 PM With them being a slight r favorable lately, not bad. Clintons probably leading around 6 here
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: BoAtlantis on November 02, 2016, 12:02:17 PM Not bad, she should be able to hold PA
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: dspNY on November 02, 2016, 12:02:53 PM OK poll. Don't like the fact the lead dropped from 10 to 4 with no early voting but she's definitely still fine in PA
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 12:03:21 PM Quote Trump's improved performance has been driven by significant gains in the western portion of the state, where he now has a substantial 54% to 38% lead over Clinton. Last month, Clinton actually had a very narrow edge of 45% to 42% in western Pennsylvania, whereas Trump held a 47% to 40% lead here in August. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 12:03:34 PM PublicPolicyPolling @ppppolls 30s30 seconds ago
Almost identical to what we've seen recently in PA. Tighter than it was, sure. Hillary still ahead by a decent amount, yes. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: The Other Castro on November 02, 2016, 12:04:04 PM Important to note:
Quote The poll was conducted after news broke about the FBI investigation of new emails during Clinton's tenure as Secretary of State. Only 4% of Pennsylvania voters say this news caused them to change their minds about which candidate they would support. The vast majority (89%) say these latest developments have had no impact on their vote and 6% are unaware of the news. Among those who changed their vote, Trump has less than a 2:1 advantage, meaning the overall presidential vote margin shifted by no more than one percentage point specifically due to this breaking news. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 12:04:04 PM Benjy Sarlin @BenjySarlin 2m2 minutes ago NEW Monmouth poll of PA: Clinton 48 (-2) Trump 44 (+4) Poll taken Oct 29-Nov 1, so roughly at Peak Comey. Niiiiiice! Important to note: Quote The poll was conducted after news broke about the FBI investigation of new emails during Clinton's tenure as Secretary of State. Only 4% of Pennsylvania voters say this news caused them to change their minds about which candidate they would support. The vast majority (89%) say these latest developments have had no impact on their vote and 6% are unaware of the news. Among those who changed their vote, Trump has less than a 2:1 advantage, meaning the overall presidential vote margin shifted by no more than one percentage point specifically due to this breaking news. Wow! 4%! It is a really big. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 02, 2016, 12:04:43 PM until yesterday....peak comey included.
wow@toomey. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: TC 25 on November 02, 2016, 12:05:00 PM PA remains a tough nut to crack for the GOP. Close but not quite there. Remains a long shot
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 12:05:02 PM Quote @samsteinhp 18s18 seconds ago Clinton plus 4 in Pennsylvania in two polls and, i'm told, roughly the same as internals Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: john cage bubblegum on November 02, 2016, 12:05:20 PM Clinton should win PA by an Obama '12ish margin. Rendell bless the Philly suburbs.
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 12:05:42 PM Yeah, stick a fork in Toomey.
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: KingSweden on November 02, 2016, 12:06:12 PM Quote Trump's improved performance has been driven by significant gains in the western portion of the state, where he now has a substantial 54% to 38% lead over Clinton. Last month, Clinton actually had a very narrow edge of 45% to 42% in western Pennsylvania, whereas Trump held a 47% to 40% lead here in August. Then that previous poll was junk. Western PA should be one of the best Trump regions outside of South Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on November 02, 2016, 12:06:23 PM Good to see Trump is still polling below 45%.
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: SunSt0rm on November 02, 2016, 12:06:38 PM Firewall still standing, but it looks scarier
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: swf541 on November 02, 2016, 12:06:46 PM So, a dem senate and president trump is plausible, that'd be interesting......
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 12:07:10 PM Quote Trump's improved performance has been driven by significant gains in the western portion of the state, where he now has a substantial 54% to 38% lead over Clinton. Last month, Clinton actually had a very narrow edge of 45% to 42% in western Pennsylvania, whereas Trump held a 47% to 40% lead here in August. Then that previous poll was junk. Western PA should be one of the best Trump regions outside of South I agree, I think that's one of the bigger take aways form this. If you consider that, they're still showing a Trump uptick, but not much of one. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Xing on November 02, 2016, 12:09:02 PM Clinton should be fine here, and thus should win the election.
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 02, 2016, 12:11:08 PM Quote Trump's improved performance has been driven by significant gains in the western portion of the state, where he now has a substantial 54% to 38% lead over Clinton. Last month, Clinton actually had a very narrow edge of 45% to 42% in western Pennsylvania, whereas Trump held a 47% to 40% lead here in August. Then that previous poll was junk. Western PA should be one of the best Trump regions outside of South Dude, the MoE is probably like +/-10% on crosstabs. No need to worry about that nonsense. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Ebsy on November 02, 2016, 12:15:22 PM I see Monmouth has decided to sacrifice their A pollster rating.
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Figueira on November 02, 2016, 12:17:04 PM Yeah, stick a fork in Toomey. I hate the fork analogy, but yeah, McGinty should win as long as Clinton wins the state. Weirdly, the Senate races are roughly where I thought they would be in early 2015, minus maybe Colorado and North Carolina. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: F_S_USATN on November 02, 2016, 12:42:49 PM Is PA supposed to be 7 pts more white than 2012?
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 12:43:14 PM Is PA supposed to be 7 pts more white than 2012? Could be a couple, won't be 7. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: mark_twain on November 02, 2016, 12:57:30 PM Among 403 LVs, Oct 29-Nov 1st: Clinton 48 (-2) Trump 44 (+4) https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_110216/ Considering this poll was taken during the high-shock phase of the Comey news, this is a very good poll result. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 02, 2016, 01:09:57 PM This seems like it was held in the worst possible time for Hillary. I'm hoping she'll regain a bit in the final stretch.
Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 02, 2016, 01:11:23 PM This seems like it was held in the worst possible time for Hillary. I'm hoping she'll regain a bit in the final stretch. But Trump just announced huge WIKILEAKES release today which he will speak about at tomorrow's event (rally) with his beautiful, gorgeous totally-not-Russian (but if she were Russian, what's the big deal) wife. No regaining is to come! Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: Dr. Arch on November 02, 2016, 01:13:16 PM This seems like it was held in the worst possible time for Hillary. I'm hoping she'll regain a bit in the final stretch. But Trump just announced huge WIKILEAKES release today which he will speak about at tomorrow's event (rally) with his beautiful, gorgeous totally-not-Russian (but if she were Russian, what's the big deal) wife. No regaining is to come! Nobody gives a flying rat about Wikileaks honestly. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: mark_twain on November 02, 2016, 01:23:23 PM This seems like it was held in the worst possible time for Hillary. I'm hoping she'll regain a bit in the final stretch. But Trump just announced huge WIKILEAKES release today which he will speak about at tomorrow's event (rally) with his beautiful, gorgeous totally-not-Russian (but if she were Russian, what's the big deal) wife. No regaining is to come! Nobody gives a flying rat about Wikileaks honestly. Actually, anytime Trump and Wikileaks are mentioned in the same story, it reminds people of Trump's connections to Russia. Bad for Trump. Title: Re: Monmouth - PA: Clinton +4 Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 02, 2016, 02:30:47 PM Acceptable number.
Seems like PA is going to be no less than "Lean Dem" come Nov 8th. Thank you Keystone State ! |