Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 12:22:55 pm



Title: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 12:22:55 pm
Clinton: 46%
Trump: 40%
Johnson: 4%
Stein: 3%

MoE: 3.3%
1401 RV (Landline+Cell)
1255 were LV (MoE 3.5%)

Twitter Post: https://twitter.com/MULawPoll?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Large chunk of the sample post-Comey. MoE on the day-by-day sample is significantly larger.

Also, "Before FBI news broke, 50% of likely voters bothered a lot by the issue. Friday, 60% bothered a lot. Sat-Mon, 48% bothered a lot." People are tired of it and you can tell it's actually bothering people less as time goes on. Lots of desensitization, especially as partisan-action details became clearer.

#SickOfDamnEmails


Title: Marquette University: Wisconsin Clinton +6
Post by: King Francis I on November 02, 2016, 12:23:36 pm
Clinton: 46%
Trump: 40%


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Results Incoming
Post by: Xing on November 02, 2016, 12:23:44 pm
Clinton is still up by 6. It's gonna be alright, everyone. :)


Title: Marquette - WI: Clinton +6
Post by: EliteLX on November 02, 2016, 12:23:50 pm
Clinton: 46%
Trump: 40%
Johnson: 4%
Stein: 3%

Among likely voters, Oct 26-31st
https://law.marquette.edu/poll/


Title: WI-Marquette: Clinton +6
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 02, 2016, 12:23:51 pm
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793866080833921024


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Results Incoming
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 02, 2016, 12:23:55 pm
Clinton up 46-40.


Title: Re: Marquette University: Wisconsin Clinton +6
Post by: Ebsy on November 02, 2016, 12:24:06 pm
So much for the bedwetters!


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Results Incoming
Post by: dspNY on November 02, 2016, 12:24:20 pm
Clinton is still up by 6. It's gonna be alright, everyone. :)

Baby don't worry....about a thing
Cause every little thing, is gonna be alright

Yes! Clinton is still on track to win the firewall states


Title: Re: Marquette University: Wisconsin Clinton +6
Post by: F_S_USATN on November 02, 2016, 12:24:35 pm
Safe D


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 12:24:47 pm
Sad! :(


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 02, 2016, 12:24:55 pm
Yay


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 12:25:13 pm
The Firewall still going strong.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Xing on November 02, 2016, 12:25:31 pm
B-b-b-but I thought Wisconsin was the crack in the freiwal!

Wisconsin is fool's gold for Republicans. News at 11.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 12:25:34 pm
Sounds about right. Good to hear.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 12:26:04 pm
A nice dose of reality after a week of madness.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Castro on November 02, 2016, 12:26:26 pm
Nice!


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Elizabeth Warren 2020 on November 02, 2016, 12:26:49 pm
Trump at only 40% is great, though I still wish Hillary's % was higher. Looks like the rallying of the GOP hasn't occurred in WI.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: WI is Safe D on November 02, 2016, 12:26:58 pm
Oh, thank God.

Halleluja (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usfiAsWR4qU)


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 12:27:05 pm
Is there break for pre and post-Comey?


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: F_S_USATN on November 02, 2016, 12:29:03 pm
Is there break for pre and post-Comey?

This is what I wanna know. They were in the field when the Access Hollywood tape hit and it went from Clinton +6 day of to Clinton +19 the next two days


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: HokeyDood on November 02, 2016, 12:29:16 pm
TREMENDOUS!!!  DAS FREIWALL IS GUUUUUUUT!


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 02, 2016, 12:29:54 pm
Thank god.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 12:30:00 pm
Among early voters, 64% for Clinton, 25% for Trump.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 02, 2016, 12:30:05 pm
Is there break for pre and post-Comey?

Haven't gotten there yet... but Clinton is crushing it in EV... 64 Clinton, 25 Trump. (16% of sample).


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 12:30:17 pm
even accepting this is one point worse than Obama's margin in 2012, this is a huge relief - considering my belief that Wisconsin is one of the potential TRUMP flips.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 02, 2016, 12:30:34 pm
Among early voters, 64% for Clinton, 25% for Trump. In Senate race, 58% for Feingold, 29% for Johnson.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 12:31:25 pm
Quote
New poll was conducted before and after Fri announcement of new FBI look at Clinton e-mails. Some shifts occurred.
Quote
Combining results for all six days of polling, 50% say they are bothered a lot by Clinton e-mails issue
Quote
23% say they are bothered a little by Clinton e-mails, 26% not bothered at all. (These results are for all registered voters.) #mulawpoll
Quote
Before FBI news broke, 50% of likely voters bothered a lot by the issue. Friday, 60% bothered a lot. Sat-Mon, 48% bothered a lot. #mulawpoll
...


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: HokeyDood on November 02, 2016, 12:32:11 pm
Thank god.

The cheeseheads always come through, man.  With PA, CO, WI, VA, and NH safe we can breathe easy.  


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 12:33:14 pm
Quote
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll
They are trolling...



Quote
Little change in view among Democrats before and after FBI news. Support by Republicans of Trump increased. #mulawpoll


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 12:33:40 pm
Early Voters 65% Clinton/25% Trump, which means she has picked up a LOT of I and Rs.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: cp on November 02, 2016, 12:33:52 pm
https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793868306373603328 (https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/793868306373603328)

"Before FBI news broke, 50% of likely voters bothered a lot by the issue. Friday, 60% bothered a lot. Sat-Mon, 48% bothered a lot."


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 02, 2016, 12:34:02 pm
Friday numbers have 10% margin of error.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 12:34:35 pm
Quote
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll
They are trolling...

MoE is huge in the day-by-day. Clinton is Safe here.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 12:35:15 pm
Quote
Among Repubs, Trump supported by 73% on Weds and Thurs, 87% on Friday, 86% Sat through Mon. #mulawpoll


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 12:35:55 pm
Also, "Before FBI news broke, 50% of likely voters bothered a lot by the issue. Friday, 60% bothered a lot. Sat-Mon, 48% bothered a lot." People are tired of it and you can tell it's actually bothering people less as time goes on. Lots of desensitization, especially as partisan-action details became clearer.

#SickOfDamnEmails


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 12:36:19 pm
MoE is huge in the day-by-day. Clinton is Safe here.

I know. That could go directly to the results. Not doing it = trolling... That's what I meant.





Quote
Among independents, Clinton ahead by 7 on Weds and Thurs, Trump up 10 on Fri, Trump up 8 Sat through Mon. #mulawpoll


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 12:36:54 pm
This pretty much describes Democrats right now.

https://twitter.com/strid340/status/793866903244668929


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: WI is Safe D on November 02, 2016, 12:39:37 pm
Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 12:41:08 pm
Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.

Quote
Nate Silver ‏@NateSilver538  4m4 minutes ago
Nate Silver Retweeted MULawPoll
Small samples here but it's **plausible** that the FBI story was quite damaging to Clinton at first, then damage lessened as story evolved.

Quote
MULawPoll @MULawPoll
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 12:41:39 pm
Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.

Yeah, if anything, the more likely culprit is Obamacare news giving Republicans and Republican leaning indies an excuse to vote for Trump.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 12:42:11 pm
Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.

She's rebounding nicely from it.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 12:43:25 pm
Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.

Yeah, if anything, the more likely culprit is Obamacare news giving Republicans and Republican leaning indies an excuse to vote for Trump.

There might be some truth to this. The email thing isn't new and most people made up their minds about HRC guilt/innocence back in July.  Obamacare does give normal GOP hacks an excuse to vote for the orange man.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: john cage bubblegum on November 02, 2016, 12:44:52 pm
The freiwal holds!  Fantastic news.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 12:45:46 pm
Quote
Does “honest” describe Clinton? 28% yes, 68% no. Does “honest” describe Trump? 36% yes, 61% no. #mulawpoll

Quote
62% would be very or somewhat uncomfortable with Trump as president (51% say very uncomfortable). #mulawpoll


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 02, 2016, 12:46:38 pm
Just another confirmation that Comey-gate has minimal effect. Most of the tightening is due to Republicans coming home.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: mark_twain on November 02, 2016, 12:47:39 pm

Also, "Before FBI news broke, 50% of likely voters bothered a lot by the issue. Friday, 60% bothered a lot. Sat-Mon, 48% bothered a lot." People are tired of it and you can tell it's actually bothering people less as time goes on. Lots of desensitization, especially as partisan-action details became clearer.

#SickOfDamnEmails

Good news...I'm quite sure the same applies in all other states as well.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: WI is Safe D on November 02, 2016, 12:47:55 pm
Is there any solid evidence the Comey letter is having any impact at all?  Republicans and right-independents were breaking for Trump before the Comey news broke, and Friday didn't seem to change that trajectory.  Meanwhile Clinton is holding steady.

Yeah, if anything, the more likely culprit is Obamacare news giving Republicans and Republican leaning indies an excuse to vote for Trump.

I agree.  If Comeygate were really an issue, we'd see Hillary's numbers dropping, but in national polling, Clinton continues to hover around 48-49% - plenty to win the PV, possibly a majority considering how many people voted early.

Hillary supporters at this point are pro-ACA, or at least fear what a GOP-controlled Washington could do to their insurance.  They aren't going to be swayed by fear-mongering over a rate increase that doesn't affect a lot of them.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Elizabeth Warren 2020 on November 02, 2016, 12:47:56 pm
That very uncomfortable number is lethal. Looks like the WI door is closed on Trump.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: HokeyDood on November 02, 2016, 12:48:12 pm
Paul Ryan right now after announcing he's a good little soldier;

(https://media.giphy.com/media/fAv2n4Tlhshig/giphy.gif)


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 02, 2016, 01:01:09 pm
Paul Ryan right now after announcing he's a good little soldier;

(https://media.giphy.com/media/fAv2n4Tlhshig/giphy.gif)

heh


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 02, 2016, 01:03:49 pm
I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 01:04:57 pm
I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Eraserhead on November 02, 2016, 01:07:03 pm
Pretty solid for HRC, the Senate numbers blow though.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 02, 2016, 01:10:27 pm
I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.

Small subsamples, though.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: MasterJedi on November 02, 2016, 01:17:25 pm
She'll win the state by about 6-8%, probably on the low end of that. She already has my submitted vote too.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 01:22:39 pm
I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 01:25:14 pm
I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 01:25:58 pm
I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Thank you.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 01:26:50 pm
Quote
“Concern about Clinton’s use of a private email system does not appear to have shifted much in the wake of the FBI news. The vote margin overall shows a little tightening, from an 11-point Clinton lead before the news to a 6-point lead after the news,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll and professor of law and public policy. “Within partisan identifiers, there is evidence that some undecided Republicans moved to support of Trump over the survey period and that independents shifted from a Clinton advantage to a Trump advantage, though all the shifts are inside the margin of error.”

If I understand it right.

It was C+11 pre-Comey
And C+6 post-Comey ???

How come overall is also C+6? Or do they talk about last poll?


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 01:28:38 pm
Quote
“Concern about Clinton’s use of a private email system does not appear to have shifted much in the wake of the FBI news. The vote margin overall shows a little tightening, from an 11-point Clinton lead before the news to a 6-point lead after the news,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette Law School Poll and professor of law and public policy. “Within partisan identifiers, there is evidence that some undecided Republicans moved to support of Trump over the survey period and that independents shifted from a Clinton advantage to a Trump advantage, though all the shifts are inside the margin of error.”

If I understand it right.

It was C+11 pre-Comey
And C+6 post-Comey ???

How come overall is also C+6? Or do they talk about last poll?

It's funny how you act as if you can read polls like an expert when there is one for Trump, but when you want to know more about a poll that's favorable to HRC, we need to walk you through it.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 01:29:34 pm
I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Aha... this one
Quote
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll

Lol, I had a brain shortcut. I thought "favored" = fav/unfav rating... :-[


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 01:30:40 pm
I'd be more relieved if this was entirely post-Comey, but this looks all right.

Post-Comey actually looks slightly better.
Did they release it yet?

Release what? You posted the day by day numbers yourself, and Arch below posted the "opinion on emails scandal" numbers. Not sure you're gonna get day-to-day crosstabs. Day-to-day is the crosstabs.

Aha... this one
Quote
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll

Lol, I had a brain shortcut. I thought "favored" = fav/unfav rating... :-[

well the margin of error on individual days is massive.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 01:34:39 pm
well the margin of error on individual days is massive.
The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points for Wednesday and Thursday‘s sample (541 respondents), +/-9.8 percentage points for the Friday sample (157 respondents) and +/-5.4 percentage points for the combined Saturday, Sunday and Monday samples (557 respondents).

MOE is less than Monmouth (they usually have 400 LV).


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 01:35:29 pm
my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: SunSt0rm on November 02, 2016, 01:37:38 pm
well the margin of error on individual days is massive.
The margin of error is +/- 5.3 percentage points for Wednesday and Thursday‘s sample (541 respondents), +/-9.8 percentage points for the Friday sample (157 respondents) and +/-5.4 percentage points for the combined Saturday, Sunday and Monday samples (557 respondents).

MOE is less than Monmouth (they usually have 400 LV).

And I don't really understand how it adds up. Clinton has to have bigger lead than 6. Because, well
Quote
On Weds and Thurs, 47% favored Clinton, 36% Trump. On Fri, Trump 48%, Clinton 40%. Sat-Mon, Clinton 46%, Trump 40%. #mulawpoll
at her worst day she had a lead of 6%

Trump led by 8 on friday, the day of Comey


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 01:37:50 pm
my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

Actually, Green Bay has one of the highest Hispanic populations in the state. I think Trump will narrowly lose it, while winning northern-central counties and weakening in the WoW area.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 01:38:23 pm
my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

Actually, Green Bay has one of the highest Hispanic populations in the state. I think Trump will narrowly lose it, while winning northern-central counties and weakening in the WoW area.

didn't know that - but Green Bay whites seem to love Deplorable Donnie from what I've been hearing.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: MasterJedi on November 02, 2016, 01:38:33 pm
my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 01:39:32 pm
my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: MasterJedi on November 02, 2016, 01:41:52 pm
my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.


For eastern WI those are the only areas where you see Trump signs out there a LOT. Down here in the Milwaukee metro you see some, it has picked up somewhat but there are a lot more Johnson/Ryan/local signs and not nearly as many Trump ones. Up there in the country you drive down the highway and see 20 HUGE Trumper signs to 1 small Clinton. Obviously signs don't mean anything but polling shows it as well.

EDIT: Also why I have no idea why a lot of people think WI-08 will be a Dem pickup.


Title: WI: Marquette Law School: Clinton Leading in Wisconsin
Post by: Dave Leip on November 02, 2016, 01:43:21 pm
New Poll: Wisconsin President by Marquette Law School on 2016-10-31 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5520161031181)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 40%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://law.marquette.edu/poll/2016/11/02/mlsp41release/)


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: WI is Safe D on November 02, 2016, 01:52:46 pm
my guess? Trump might lose a little ground in Waukesha and other counties in that sector, but make up for it by running up margins near Brown County (Green Bay) and rural Wisconsin (Romney only won Brown by 2, I expect Trump to win it by at least 5 or 6).

I suspect for Trump to win BIGLY in WI-06 and WI-08, very blue collar, low income/education area. Overall he'll lose the state though.

oh I agree - I think the ceiling is just too low for a Trump win unless there was a competent Sanders-like third party training support from Clinton, and that's not happening obviously.


For eastern WI those are the only areas where you see Trump signs out there a LOT. Down here in the Milwaukee metro you see some, it has picked up somewhat but there are a lot more Johnson/Ryan/local signs and not nearly as many Trump ones. Up there in the country you drive down the highway and see 20 HUGE Trumper signs to 1 small Clinton. Obviously signs don't mean anything but polling shows it as well.

EDIT: Also why I have no idea why a lot of people think WI-08 will be a Dem pickup.

It will be close.  But WI-08 doesn't send non-celebrity Democrats to Washington.

Incidentally, sometime in Atlas After Dark I should tell you about the "incident" my friends and I had with Jay Johnson back in 1994.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 01:54:08 pm
Trump led by 8 on friday, the day of Comey
Yeah. Missread it as Clinton +8 :-[


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Hammy on November 02, 2016, 01:55:54 pm
Nothing surprising here, though the breakdown of the people worried about the emails was interesting--less care about it days later than before the Comey story.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Chaddyr23 on November 02, 2016, 02:01:53 pm
Why is Feingold underperforming Clinton? Is Ryan's "check" on Clinton schtick working!?!!!


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Arch on November 02, 2016, 02:03:35 pm
Why is Feingold underperforming Clinton? Is Ryan's "check" on Clinton schtick working!?!!!

Johnson will lose. He's never led in the average, and we want Feingold back. Johnson is a bad fit for the state. He can run again in Alabama for senate if he wants.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: WI is Safe D on November 02, 2016, 02:03:54 pm
Nothing surprising here, though the breakdown of the people worried about the emails was interesting--less care about it days later than before the Comey story.

Friday: Denial, Anger
Saturday: Bargaining
Sunday: Depression
Monday: Acceptance


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 02, 2016, 02:21:41 pm
Another brick in the FireWall holds !


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Joni Ernst 20∞ on November 02, 2016, 02:44:29 pm
Among early voters, 64% for Clinton, 25% for Trump. In Senate race, 58% for Feingold, 29% for Johnson.

Johnson doing 10 points better than Trump among early voters isn't exactly good news for Feingold. He's probably outperforming Trump by a lot in the WOW counties and the Green Bay area.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Ozymandias on November 02, 2016, 02:51:04 pm
http://law.marquette.edu/poll/

Of the 16% (201/1255) of respondents who said they already voted:

Clinton - 64
Trump - 25
Johnson - 1
Stein - 0
Other - 3

SENATE:

Feingold - 58
Johnson - 29
Other - 5


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Bevinevitable on November 03, 2016, 12:14:30 am
BOOM

Sorry to the Trumpets but this is by far the most important poll released today. Worth more than 1000 Emersons or SurveyMonkeys.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: WI is Safe D on November 03, 2016, 07:10:01 pm
She'll win the state by about 6-8%, probably on the low end of that. She already has my submitted vote too.

You're not the only WI-R to vote for her.  My parents are doing so as well (while holding their noses).

Bless all of you.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Southern Dep. Speaker Dwarven Dragon on August 19, 2017, 02:34:49 pm
Well no one is going to trust Marquette again after this blunder.


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Keep cool-idge on August 21, 2017, 09:53:27 pm
Well no one is going to trust Marquette again after this blunder.
Yep


Title: Re: WI-MU Law: Clinton +6
Post by: Deblano on September 22, 2017, 04:09:26 pm
Well no one is going to trust any polls again after this blunder.

FTFY