Talk Elections

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 02:02:44 PM



Title: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 02:02:44 PM
http://news.hamptonu.edu/release/Hampton-University%27s-CPP-Latest-Poll-Shows-VA-Voter-Shift-from-Clinton-to-Trump-Post-Email-Investigation

Trump 44
Clinton 41
Don’t Know/Refused 15


A 15 point shift toward Trump in a month. Compared to SEP. 28-OCT. 2


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way)
Post by: TC 25 on November 02, 2016, 02:03:47 PM
Well this is certainly interesting.  Gillespie redux.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 02, 2016, 02:04:05 PM
Right, lmao


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way)
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on November 02, 2016, 02:04:06 PM
lol


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way)
Post by: Yank2133 on November 02, 2016, 02:04:25 PM
Well this is certainly interesting.  Gillespie redux.

No.

Virginians actually vote in presidential elections


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way)
Post by: Buzz on November 02, 2016, 02:04:41 PM
Beautiful Poll!


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 02, 2016, 02:05:03 PM
LMAO!  Trumpistas drenched!


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Ebsy on November 02, 2016, 02:05:08 PM
Seems like we are getting a lot of junk polls.

Major outlier.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Wiz in Wis on November 02, 2016, 02:05:13 PM
Yeah... I buy a 15 point swing in a month... sure.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Eraserhead on November 02, 2016, 02:05:32 PM
Stop putting 538 ratings in the title.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: john cage bubblegum on November 02, 2016, 02:05:45 PM
lmao

Super ultra mega junk.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Dr. Arch on November 02, 2016, 02:05:51 PM
You guys are in for a huge disappointment if you think VA is going for Trump this year. It's not even close. The share of NoVA voters is actually up from Obama elections.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Tender Branson on November 02, 2016, 02:05:56 PM
The correct word is "University".


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: adrac on November 02, 2016, 02:06:36 PM
Certainly an anomalous top-line number, but perhaps only just outside the margin of error. The 15 point swing, however, is very anomalous.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 02, 2016, 02:08:46 PM
Seems like "Don’t Know/Refused" was hovering around 5% and after Comey-gate, Clinton supporters refused to answer at all.

Probably explains why we have 15% "Don’t Know/Refused" now.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it. on November 02, 2016, 02:09:13 PM
Stop posing junk.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 02:13:36 PM
Look how your friends reacted when it showed Clinton+12 :)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247636.0

Disgusting hypocrites, no?


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 02, 2016, 02:17:50 PM
No.
LOL.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Xing on November 02, 2016, 02:19:33 PM
If Trumpsters cherry pick their polls, they might go into election night very confident... I doubt they'll be as happy by the end of election night, though.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Beefalow and the Consumer on November 02, 2016, 02:20:34 PM

Or at least, a University whose name doesn't rhyme with "Arquette."


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: bilaps on November 02, 2016, 02:24:34 PM
Look how your friends reacted when it showed Clinton+12 :)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247636.0

Disgusting hypocrites, no?

that's their middle name


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: MasterJedi on November 02, 2016, 02:26:43 PM
So yeah, this is pretty much junk. But now the Trumpers can slobber over "rigged Virginia" when it's the only poll showing Trump again. Either way, sweating dogs now, shocked on election night.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Maxwell on November 02, 2016, 03:04:55 PM
()


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Cashew on November 02, 2016, 03:05:16 PM
So yeah, this is pretty much junk. But now the Trumpers can slobber over "rigged Virginia" when it's the only poll showing Trump again. Either way, sweating dogs now, shocked on election night.
Yeah the real problem with this poll is they will have an excuse to start up rigged talk.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: RFayette on November 02, 2016, 03:29:38 PM
Ayy


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Kalimantan on November 02, 2016, 03:30:44 PM
Why say JUNK?

Looks obvious really, a large chunk of Clinton supporters refused to answer, hence a crashing drop.

As for what it means on election day, I'd hazard a guess that they still vote for her (or have already voted for her but don't want to say)


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: JJC on November 02, 2016, 03:49:26 PM
VA has become a really fickle state in recent years. Clinton will probably win it, but it will be closer than most expect.

Clinton obviously is the heavy favorite here, but keep in mind that what's been making VA blue the past 8 years is high black turnout (and to a lesser extent, an increase in government workers near D.C.)

Clinton's big problem this cycle is that black turnout has been way down since 2012. Minorities may hate Trump, but they are not excited for Hillary either. She just can't turn them out the way Obama did.

I've been noticing lower black turnout and higher white turnout in key swing states during early voting (which I don't think many polls are taking into account) and have been searching for info on VA EV numbers ever since. But after scouring the internet, I've come up short.

VA has been on my dark horse list (along with MI) for a while now. If it is in play (big IF), then this opens up a whole can of worms for Clinton. Right now Trump's path to victory is 4 Aces - IA, OH, FL, and a blue leaning state or a NV+NH combo. I think he has three of the four. But the last one will be the toughest.



Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 02, 2016, 03:54:33 PM
Stop putting 538 ratings in the title.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Kalimantan on November 02, 2016, 04:08:09 PM
VA has become a really fickle state in recent years. Clinton will probably win it, but it will be closer than most expect.

Clinton obviously is the heavy favorite here, but keep in mind that what's been making VA blue the past 8 years is high black turnout (and to a lesser extent, an increase in government workers near D.C.)

Clinton's big problem this cycle is that black turnout has been way down since 2012. Minorities may hate Trump, but they are not excited for Hillary either. She just can't turn them out the way Obama did.

I've been noticing lower black turnout and higher white turnout in key swing states during early voting (which I don't think many polls are taking into account) and have been searching for info on VA EV numbers ever since. But after scouring the internet, I've come up short.

VA has been on my dark horse list (along with MI) for a while now. If it is in play (big IF), then this opens up a whole can of worms for Clinton. Right now Trump's path to victory is 4 Aces - IA, OH, FL, and a blue leaning state or a NV+NH combo. I think he has three of the four. But the last one will be the toughest.



evidence over the country as a whole is that black people are actually early voting at higher numbers in 2016 compared to 2012. There is just a surge in white and hispanic early voting that means the % of Black early voters is down, but therefore by contrast the election day % will be up.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Seriously? on November 02, 2016, 04:24:49 PM
It's a legitimate poll. A terrible pollster. But a legitimate poll nonetheless. They were just as bad when they had Clinton up by 12 as they are with this result.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: JJC on November 02, 2016, 04:56:10 PM
VA has become a really fickle state in recent years. Clinton will probably win it, but it will be closer than most expect.

Clinton obviously is the heavy favorite here, but keep in mind that what's been making VA blue the past 8 years is high black turnout (and to a lesser extent, an increase in government workers near D.C.)

Clinton's big problem this cycle is that black turnout has been way down since 2012. Minorities may hate Trump, but they are not excited for Hillary either. She just can't turn them out the way Obama did.

I've been noticing lower black turnout and higher white turnout in key swing states during early voting (which I don't think many polls are taking into account) and have been searching for info on VA EV numbers ever since. But after scouring the internet, I've come up short.

VA has been on my dark horse list (along with MI) for a while now. If it is in play (big IF), then this opens up a whole can of worms for Clinton. Right now Trump's path to victory is 4 Aces - IA, OH, FL, and a blue leaning state or a NV+NH combo. I think he has three of the four. But the last one will be the toughest.



evidence over the country as a whole is that black people are actually early voting at higher numbers in 2016 compared to 2012. There is just a surge in white and hispanic early voting that means the % of Black early voters is down, but therefore by contrast the election day % will be up.

That is factually false.

In many states blacks are down 10-15% from their numbers in 2012.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: dspNY on November 02, 2016, 05:00:13 PM
LOL at this poll...get real


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 02, 2016, 05:17:39 PM

That what you said about their last poll ::)

Virginia = just about Safe D

Amazing considering the fact that going into 2008, it was a state no Dem won since LBJ


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 02, 2016, 05:47:35 PM

That what you said about their last poll ::)

Virginia = just about Safe D

Amazing considering the fact that going into 2008, it was a state no Dem won since LBJ
It is an outlier, the other did not look to be one.  Stop trying to get people.  Your pretty bad at it.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton Univecite: T+3 (2-way)
Post by: Donnie on November 02, 2016, 06:59:52 PM
Well this is certainly interesting.  Gillespie redux.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Interlocutor is just not there yet on November 02, 2016, 07:06:52 PM
I was gonna say junk poll, but then I saw the 538 rating in the title and still decided it was junk


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: libertpaulian on November 02, 2016, 07:10:37 PM
I was gonna say junk poll, but then I saw the 538 rating in the title and still decided it was junk
538 is usually on the money.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 02, 2016, 07:16:27 PM
I was gonna say junk poll, but then I saw the 538 rating in the title and still decided it was junk
538 is usually on the money.


Not really. Quinnipiac is an A-, but did terribly during the primaries. Gravis is a B- for god knows why. SurveyUSA has had multiple bad cycles yet maintains its A. Thats just to name a few.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: LimoLiberal on November 02, 2016, 07:43:26 PM
I would bet my organs and 500,000 dollars that Virginia will not vote for Trump. As somebody who lives in Northern Virginia.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: StatesPoll on November 02, 2016, 09:22:50 PM
Look how your friends reacted when it showed Clinton+12 :)

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=247636.0

Disgusting hypocrites, no?

agee. digusting double standard, as red avatars used to.



Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: EpicHistory on November 02, 2016, 11:29:24 PM
I would bet my organs and 500,000 dollars that Virginia will not vote for Trump. As somebody who lives in Northern Virginia.

Southwest Virginia here. Lots of enthusiasm here for Trump, and the rest of the state only has to increase turnout by 5% to beat NoVA.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Kempros on November 03, 2016, 12:35:16 AM
I would bet my organs and 500,000 dollars that Virginia will not vote for Trump. As somebody who lives in Northern Virginia.

Southwest Virginia here. Lots of enthusiasm here for Trump, and the rest of the state only has to increase turnout by 5% to beat NoVA.
Just don't get cocky (Bad karma), and keep working hard.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Kempros on November 03, 2016, 12:38:55 AM
Well if the Reps want to win the state, they also have got to be sure the rest of dem Reps are on board. It almost went to Roobs during the Primary.
()


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Kempros on November 03, 2016, 12:40:43 AM
I would bet my organs and 500,000 dollars that Virginia will not vote for Trump. As somebody who lives in Northern Virginia.
If it somehow happens, I'll check back with ya.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: 🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸 on November 05, 2016, 01:08:05 AM
This poll is biased b/c of Trump's great relationship with the blacks.


Title: Re: VA-Hampton University: Ttrump+3 (2-way) "B" rating (538)
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on November 05, 2016, 01:38:16 AM
turn out is up big time in northern Virginia...it is highly unlikely that trump can take this state.
http://www.vpap.org/visualizations/early-voting