Talk Elections

https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399

FL: Clinton 46 - Trump 45, Johnson 2, Stein 2
NC: Clinton 47 - Trump 44, Johnson 3
OH: Trump 46 - Clinton 41, Johnson 5, Stein 2
PA: Clinton 48 - Trump 43, Johnson 3, Stein 3

HEAD-TO-HEAD

FL: Clinton 47 - Trump 45
NC: Clinton 48 - Trump 46
OH: Trump 47 - Clinton 44
PA: Clinton 50 - Trump 44

From October 27 - November 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed:

626 Florida likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points;
602 North Carolina likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
589 Ohio likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points;
612 Pennsylvania likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Good numbers for Clinton. Quinnipiac can't poll Ohio so this is hardly surprising.

Disgusting poll :(

What is the matter with Ohio!?!!

Friewal intact... NC/FL numbers are solid. OH remains poopy.

Not too shabby. Das Freiwal is holding.

At last a pollster I've heard of :)

GREAT numbers. HRC has rebounded nicely from the fake scandal and irresponsible director.

These feel like accurate numbers for both candidates right now, maybe OH is 2-3 point Trump lead instead of 5, but whatever.

I'm sure Nate Silver will find someone to make these improve Trump's chance of winning though!

https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399

The Ohio numbers seem reasonable enough.

I expect her numbers to improve this weekend.

Trump is just not going to win, and to be honest.. Ohio is close enough that I think Clinton will likely win Ohio at the end.

Any proof for that rather than "I think"?

Ohio might be a little off, but basically about what I expected at this point.

President Obama managed to get a surprising number of conservative white voters to hold their noses and vote for him in Ohio in 2012 because they supported the auto bailout, and now those voters are returning to the Republican party now that that issue is far in the rear-view mirror.

Hey look, when a real pollster goes into the field, you get realistic numbers.  I still think Ohio will be closer than that, but given the tightening of the race, it does look like Ohio will flip to Atlas blue.  I think Clinton would need a 5-6 point national margin to have a good shot at Ohio.

Huuuuuuuuge outlier. Ohio is correct tough ***Red-hack style***

32 point gender gap in PA:

men:
Trump 51%
Clinton 39%
Johnson 6%
Stein 3%

women:
Clinton 56%
Trump 36%
Stein 3%
Johnson 1%

Also, there’s still a massive education/race divide in NC:

white college degree: Trump +7
white no college degree: Trump +43
non-white: Clinton +67

Mind pointing out how they're outliers? Oh right, red-hack style requires you to be able to read and understand methodological frameworks. My bad.

EARLY VOTING:

"Hillary Clinton is ahead 48 - 42 percent among Florida voters who already have cast ballots."

"North Carolina early voters back Clinton 58 - 36 percent."

"Ohio early voters back Clinton 58 - 32 percent."

Awesome

Any senate polls for these states?

Agree.
And PA, a critical brick in the FireWall is holding.
FL and NC look good.
OH looks to be in trouble from a number of recent polls, but if Clinton can take FL and NC (and NV), then so be it.

()

Not that I saw-- IIRC, Quinnipiac typically releases Senate numbers the day after Presidential results.

In line with Clinton +3-4 nationally :-\

Seems like Ohio is lost for Clinton.  Oh well.  Otherwise, I'm pleased with these numbers.

HEAD-TO-HEAD

FL: Clinton 47 - Trump 45
NC: Clinton 48 - Trump 46
OH: Trump 47 - Clinton 44
PA: Clinton 50 - Trump 44

Johnson's support is disappearing. It's starting to look like Stein may beat him in a few of these states.

50 in PA means game over.

The crazy Super pac trolls love the polls when it has Clinton leading but say X can't poll state Y if Clinton.

Ohio is out but otherwise the numbers hold good for Clinton. Florida is a toss-up but NC Is pretty damn good, outperforming Obama & PA is holding steady!

Head to Head Numbers are for stupid people - Because Johnson & Stein are getting votes!

The collapse of Johnson is funny - Looks like Stein may end up getting more votes than Clinton!

The head to head numbers are probably the ones to look at, since third party candidates are largely irrelevant, by this point (except maybe in Utah.) I'll take a slight deficit in Ohio for Clinton being up in two must-win states for Trump, and comfortably ahead in PA.

Quinnipiac NC Poll (10/27-11/1)
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/ps/snc11022016_demos_Sbyf37m.pdf/
Total 602 LV samples.  Early voters 44%.
602 LV X 44% = 264.88 LV (Already voted)


265 LV = very massive samples to figure out 2 Million votes(already voted in NC) ;)

Here's more detail on early voting:

Quinnipiac poll: https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399

FLORIDA: Of the 42% (263/626) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 48-42 percent (5.6% MOE).

NORTH CAROLINA: Of the 44% (265/602) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 58-36 percent (6.0% MOE).

OHIO: Of the 27% (159/589) of Early Voters, Clinton is ahead 58-33 percent (7.5% MOE).

YOWZA!  Tremendous!

Great poll!

Called it - North Carolina's white voter gap (59-33 Trump) is significantly lower than it was in 2012 (68-32).

Not great for Clinton -

Favorable ratings pretty much explain the race in states that are not named North Carolina:

Clinton Favorables: 44-54 in Florida, 41-54 in NC, 37-59 in OH (ouch), 41-56 in PA
Trump Favorables: 40-57 in Florida, 40-53 in NC, 39-56 in OH, 37-60 in PA (ouch)

Ok, so lot of pollin today.

I am guessing, my feeling only

PA C +4
OH T + 5
FL C+1
NC C+1
NV C+1
CO C+3
MI,WI and VA C+5
NH C+6
ME C+7
ME-2 T+1
IA T+7
GA T+10
AZ T+6
NM C+6

I'll take it.

New Poll: Florida President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1220161101015)

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399)

Confirms that the SUSA poll was junk.


Coming tomorrow at 12.

New Poll: North Carolina President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3720161101015)

Summary: D: 47%, R: 44%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399)

Why would Trumpy winning crackers by a lot less mean bad things for Our Dear Hillary?

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3920161101015)

Summary: D: 41%, R: 46%, U: 5%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399)

New Poll: Pennsylvania President by Quinnipiac University on 2016-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=4220161101015)

Summary: D: 48%, R: 43%, U: 2%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://poll.qu.edu/2016-presidential-swing-state-polls/release-detail?ReleaseID=2399)

I was talking about Clinton's favorables in Ohio and just being that close in terms of favorable numbers. Her numbers with whites in North Carolina are, relatively, fantastic.

Lolno.

well i know what you think

every state: c+100

Nope, I said that because there is no way GA will be double digits, AZ will be 1-3 point win for Trump at best, while Clinton can still make up ground, while OH and IA are just laughable, they'll be much closer than +5, and +7 respectively.

Basically NV,NC, and FL will be like NM, WI, and IA of 2004. With CO and PA being its MI and PA.  I can see the results being 48.5-45-3-2-.5

If it is just the Freival, I can see it being like 48-46.5-3-2-.5

I can see objectivness is your virtue

Huh?  Based on objective polling data, Lok1999's estimates look very plausible.

Considering she hasn't led in an Ohio poll in ages, it seems more like...she's probably trailing in Ohio.

Great news in the other states though.