Title: 2018 Ontario election Post by: King of Kensington on November 02, 2016, 09:39:16 PM Looks like it'll be a big Conservative majority, with the governing Liberals and NDP fighting for second place.
What will the result look like with the new riding map? Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on November 04, 2016, 02:09:54 PM Yeah if the Liberals win this, the PC should seriously consider disbanding itself out of embarrassment.
Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: King of Kensington on November 04, 2016, 03:42:45 PM Hey, don't rule it out!
https://www.thebeaverton.com/2016/11/ontario-pcs-confident-can-somehow-squander-bribery-charges-top-ontario-liberals/ Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: toaster on November 08, 2016, 06:38:54 AM Does anyone know when we find out if Kenora and Timmins-James Bay get split? And whether that would mean a re-organization of the rest of the Northern Ontario ridings? Depending on where the line is drawn, a Timmins-Kap-Hearst riding would be quite small (around 70k?), and the far North ridings would probably have less than 30 thousand.
Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on August 10, 2017, 10:06:45 PM While still 300 days, it should be an interesting year ahead. I think the PC's have a strong edge and lots going for them, but Patrick Brown is still an unknown and it remains to be seen how he will perform on the campaign trail while Wynne is a fighter. If an election were held today I think you would probably have the PC's get around 70 seats, Liberals 30 seats, and NDP around 20 seats but in terms of ranges I see anything from as low as 40 seats if the mess up for the PCs to as high as 90 seats if they outperform and have strong splits. For Liberals I cannot see them holding the 70 seats they would have won, but a strong campaign and major PC screwup could allow them to get around 60 seats while if things go badly they could fall into the single digits. NDP have fewer opportunities than the PCs for pickups, but fewer seats vulnerable than the Liberals nonetheless I could see them falling to the low teens if is a right vs. left and the Liberals take the left wing votes while as high as 50 seats if they manage to win. Probably the best way to predict if the polls don't change is use the 2011 federal election in Ontario as I suspect the voting pattern would fall somewhere along that line.
Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on August 13, 2017, 05:49:56 PM To keep this active, I thought I would give general thoughts by region and then after that give what I think each riding leans while updating them periodically when polling averages change.
416 - Toronto This is a Liberal stronghold yet their lock on this seems to be weakening and although they may very well win the majority of seats here, they need a big lead over the PCs if they realistically want to win provincially. That may happen, but they have work to do. The PCs just being competitive in 416 is great news for them and interestingly enough in 2011 Harper only got 31% in the 416 while most polls put the Ontario PCs a bit above that so in places like Etobicoke, North York, and Scarborough there is definitely the potential for a major PC breakthrough if they maintain their numbers. The NDP doesn't seem to so far be capitalizing much on the Liberals' misfortune and with Wynne also running on an NDP like platform that may hurt them. It seems the only real separating policy is the sale of Hydro One where the OLP are taking a more PC like approach than NDP or Liberal. While high electricity prices are a big reason for low Liberal numbers, much of that started long before the sale of Hydro One shares so not sure how much blame they will get on this even if the sale was very unpopular. Still the NDP if they play their cards right have potential for gains but so far hasn't materialized. 905 belt The PCs in pretty much every poll are leading here which is good news for them. The real question assuming the poll numbers hold (which we shouldn't assume) is do they sweep it or just win the majority of 905 ridings. Outer 905 ones like Milton, Burlington, and Newmarket-Aurora are low hanging fruits so if the PCs cannot win those they are in big trouble and I suspect unless they shoot themselves in the foot again (which they may very well) they will take those. The inner 905 ones like Markham, Mississauga, and Brampton is more where things get interesting as even though the PCs have a slight edge here I still think the Liberals with a slight uptick in the polls could hold those. The NDP asides from Oshawa and Brampton East don't seem to be much of a factor and no guarantee they will even hold these. If Singh as opposed to Howarth was NDP leader I could easily see many Brampton or Mississauga ridings falling into play. Hamilton-Niagara Liberals have less concentrated support than the other parties so in a good election they dominate these areas, but in a bad election they get wiped out. PCs should hold the rural portions, while Niagara Falls, St. Catherines, Suburban Hamilton, and maybe even along the Welland Canal are areas to watch. For the NDP it is the opposite, Central Hamilton will definitely go for them, other urban areas are strong potentials while rural portions are probably off limits Central Ontario This should be a PC sweep and if the Liberals are even close in a few ridings forget about winning any, they will win provincewide. NDP has never been a factor here. Southwestern Ontario PCs should sweep the rural ridings so it's really the urban one needs to focus on. Brantford-Brant certainly could flip their way, in the Kitchener area the suburban ones probably but not certainly will while the central ones are more competitive. London will depend heavily on vote splits as PCs are strong enough there they can win on strong vote splits, but not enough to win if they aren't there. Windsor and Guelph likely are off limits and in the riding of Essex the local NDP candidate is popular enough to prevent a PC win even if they could win with a generic candidate. Liberals are very unpopular here so suspect the focus will be on a few individual ridings. Guelph they have a decent chance and perhaps Kitchener Centre and maybe London North Centre but beyond those three unless they have a serious uptick in the polls don't see them winning elsewhere. NDP should easily hold their Windsor area ones and has potential in the London area ones and even a few in the Kitchener area as well as Brantford-Brant and the rural Southwestern ones between London and Windsor (Sarnia-Lambton and Chatham-Kent-Leamington are winneable, Lambton-Kent-Middlesex and Elgin-Middlesex-London are not). Still despite the potential for an NDP breakthrough here it doesn't seem to be happening and the types of policies that would help them in Southwestern Ontario would greatly turn off their base in the 416 and many blame Howarth's populist platform to appeal to this region for costing them their 416 ridings. In the 416 most of their potential supporters are NDP-Liberal swing ones whereas in this region unlike others you do have a fair number of NDP-Tory swing voters sort of akin to your Sanders-Trump switchers in the Midwest or UKIP-Labour voters in the Industrial north of England and I don't think the party is particularly interested in appealing to these types. So smart money is the PCs will win the majority here, but still potential for the NDP to do well while Liberals will fight to hold what they can. Northern Ontario This is the NDP's strength and should hold what they have and maybe pick up a few. The Liberals are pretty disliked here but may hold a few seats, but if they do it will be due to the local candidate not support of the party. The PCs are strong on the southern edges but weak beyond that so asides from the ridings they already hold doubt they will make big gains. Basically how well Harper did in 2011 is probably their ceiling and he only made it as far due to the unpopularity of the gun registry which the Ontario PCs don't have. Eastern Ontario Outside Ottawa and Kingston should go mostly PC. True the Liberals did well in the areas west of Kingston last time but usually they need to be well ahead in the polls to beat the PCs here even being tied of a few points ahead won't work. Suburban Ottawa as usual should be a close battle with the outer suburbs likely going PC but inner suburbs may stay Liberal. NDP is largely a non-factor here, Ottawa Centre is probably their best bet, but Ottawa-Vanier, Kingston & the Islands, and Peterborough-Kawartha are long shot possibilities but I could only see them flipping those if they win over 40 seats provincially which doesn't seem in the cards at the moment. Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on August 14, 2017, 01:49:40 PM Below are my riding analysis. Note these are based on both polls, past voting patterns, and general trends. I will update them as things change, which they almost certainly will. I generally ignore riding polls as I find unlike provincewide polls their track record is pretty bad (see Surrey-Fleetwood one in BC by Mainstreet which showed Peter Fassbender winning by 10 points when he lost by 15). Solid means barring something totally unexpected I expect the party listed to win. Likely means the party listed has a strong edge but could change if there is a strong shift in polls. Lean means the party listed has a slight edge but still far from certain. Toss up means I think it could go either way
National Capital Region Carleton - Solid PC Kanata-Carleton - Likely PC (Big risk is does Jack MacLaren get enough votes to split the right, my thoughts is he won't get over 10%) Nepean - Likely PC Ottawa West-Nepean - Toss- up Liberal/PC Ottawa Centre - Lean Liberal Ottawa South - Likely Liberal Ottawa-Vanier - Solid Liberal Orleans - Toss-up (Liberal/PC) Eastern Ontario Glengarry-Prescott-Russell - Lean PC Stormont-Dundas-South Glengarry - Solid PC Leeds-Grenville-Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes - Solid PC Kingston & the Islands - Likely Liberal Lanark-Frontenac-Kingston - Solid PC Renfrew-Nipissing-Pembroke - Solid PC Hastings-Lennox & Addington - Solid PC Bay of Quinte - Likely PC Central Ontario Haliburton-Kawartha Lakes-Brock - Solid PC Northumberland-Peterborough South - Likely PC Peterborough-Kawartha - Lean PC Simcoe North - Solid PC Barrie-Oro-Springwater - Solid PC Barrie-Innisfil - Solid PC York-Simcoe - Solid PC Simcoe-Grey - Solid PC Dufferin-Caledon - Solid PC Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound - Solid PC Durham and York Durham - Likely PC Oshawa - Toss up (NDP/PC battle) Whitby - Solid PC Ajax - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Pickering-Uxrbridge - Lean PC Markham-Thornhill - Lean Liberal Markham-Unionville - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Thornhill - Solid PC Vaughan-Woodbridge - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Richmond Hill - Toss up Markham-Stouffville - Lean PC Vaughan-King - Lean PC Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill - Likely PC Newmarket-Aurora - Likely PC Mississauga, Brampton and Oakville Brampton East - Toss up (NDP, Liberal, and PC all have shots) Brampton South - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Brampton Centre - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Brampton West - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Brampton North - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Mississauga-Malton - Lean Liberal Mississauga East-Cooksville - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Mississauga Centre - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Mississauga-Lakeshore - Lean Liberal Mississauga-Erin Mills - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Mississauga-Streetsville - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Oakville - Lean PC Oakville North-Burlington - Likely PC Scarborough Scarborough-Agincourt - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Scarborough Centre - Likely Liberal Scarborough-Guildwood - Likely Liberal Scarborough North - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Scarborough Southwest - Likely Liberal Scarborough-Rouge Park - Toss up (three way toss up) North York and North Toronto Don Valley East - Likely Liberal Don Valley West - Solid Liberal Don Valley North - Lean Liberal Willowdale - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Eglinton-Lawrence - Toss up (Liberal/PC) York Centre - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Toronto and East York Davenport - Lean NDP Fort York-Spadina - Lean Liberal Toronto Centre - Likely Liberal University-Rosedale - Toss up (Liberal/NDP) Toronto-Danforth - Likely NDP Beaches-East York - Lean NDP Toronto-St. Paul's - Solid Liberal Etobicoke and York Parkdale-High Park - Likely NDP York South-Weston - Toss up (NDP/Liberal) Humber River-Black Creek - Toss up (NDP/Liberal) Etobicoke-Lakeshore - Lean Liberal Etobicoke Centre - Toss up (PC/Liberal) Etobicoke North - Likely Liberal Hamilton, Burlington, and Niagara Burlington - Likely PC Milton - Likely PC Flamborough-Glanbrook - Likely PC Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas - Likely Liberal Hamilton Centre - Solid NDP Hamilton East-Stoney Creek - Solid NDP Hamilton Mountain - Solid NDP Niagara West - Solid PC St. Catherines - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Niagara Centre - Likely NDP Niagara Falls - Toss up - (PC/NDP) Midwestern Ontario Brant-Brantford - Lean PC Guelph - Likely Liberal Wellington-Halton Hills - Solid PC Haldimand-Norfolk - Solid PC Kitchener-Conestoga - Likely PC Cambridge - Likely PC Kitchener South-Hespeler - Likely PC Kitchener Centre - Toss up (Liberal/PC) Waterloo - Toss up (three way race) Perth-Wellington - Solid PC Huron-Bruce - Solid PC Oxford - Solid PC Southwestern Ontario London-Fanshawe - Solid NDP London North Centre - Toss up (Three way race) London West - Toss up (PC/NDP) Lambton-Kent-Middlesex - Solid PC Elgin-Middlesex-London - Solid PC Sarnia-Lambton - Likely PC Chatham-Kent-Leamington - Likely PC Essex - Solid NDP Windsor West - Solid NDP Windsor-Tecumseh - Solid NDP Northern Ontario Kiiwetinong - Likely NDP Mushkegowuk - Likely NDP Timmins - Solid NDP Kenora-Rainy River - Likely NDP Thunder Bay-Superior North - Likely Liberal Thunder Bay-Rainy River - Lean Liberal Sudbury - Likely NDP Timiskaming-Cochrane - Solid NDP Algoma-Manitoulin - Solid NDP Sault Ste. Marie - Toss up (NDP/PC) Nipissing - Solid PC Parry Sound-Muskoka - Solid PC Totals Solid PC - 26 seats Solid + Likely PC - 42 seats Solid + Likely + Lean PC - 49 seats If PCs win all toss ups - 79 seats (so PC's need to win 14 of the 30 marked toss up to clinch majority) Potential PCs (this includes leans of others I think they have a shot in) - 84 seats PC Ceiling - 94 seats Solid Liberal - 3 seats Solid + Likely Liberal - 14 seats Solid + Likely + Lean Liberal - 22 seats If Liberals win all toss ups - 50 seats (so enough for a minority but shy of a majority) Potential Liberals - 59 seats - so still a bit short Liberal Ceiling - 78 seats Solid NDP - 10 seats Solid + Likely NDP - 17 seats Solid + Likely + Lean NDP - 19 seats If NDP wins all toss ups - 29 seats - so possible opposition but not government Potential NDP - 32 seats NDP Ceiling - 44 seats - so even that would be tough but not impossible to form government So in sum PC's have a strong advantage but majority far from certain and still possible to not win most seats. Liberals are definitely the underdog and if things go badly could fall to third place and even lose official party status. But if things go right a minority is still quite realistic, while a majority is a long-shot. For the NDP forming official opposition is definitely possible and unlike the Liberals no risk of losing official party status. But a majority is out of reach and even winning a plurality is a very long shot. Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 24, 2017, 06:08:42 PM A lot of unknowns right now, but:
Ajax: PC/Lib toss up Algoma—Manitoulin: Safe NDP Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill: Likely PC Barrie—Innisfil: Safe PC Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte: Safe PC Bay of Quinte: Safe PC Beaches—East York: Liberal/NDP toss up Brampton Centre: 3-way toss up Brampton East: Safe NDP (if Jagmeet runs) Brampton North: PC/Liberal toss up Brampton South: PC/Liberal toss up Brampton West: PC/Liberal toss up Brantford—Brant: Safe PC Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound: Safe PC Burlington: Safe PC Cambridge: Safe PC Carleton: Safe PC Chatham-Kent—Leamington: Safe PC Davenport: Liberal/NDP toss up Don Valley East: Likely Liberal Don Valley North: PC/Liberal toss up Don Valley West: PC/Liberal toss up Dufferin—Caledon: Safe PC Durham: Safe PC Eglinton—Lawrence: PC/Liberal toss up Elgin—Middlesex—London: Safe PC Essex: Safe NDP Etobicoke Centre: PC/Liberal toss up Etobicoke—Lakeshore PC/Liberal toss up Etobicoke North: Likely Liberal Flamborough—Glanbrook: Safe PC Glengarry—Prescott—Russell: Likely PC Guelph: Likely Liberal Haldimand—Norfolk: Safe PC Haliburton—Kawartha Lakes—Brock: Safe PC Hamilton Centre: Safe NDP Hamilton East—Stoney Creek: Safe NDP Hamilton Mountain: Safe NDP Hamilton West—Ancaster—Dundas: Likely PC Hastings—Lennox and Addington: Safe PC Huron—Bruce: Safe PC Kanata—Carleton: Safe PC Kenora—Rainy River: Safe NDP Kiiwetinong: Safe NDP King—Vaughan: PC/Liberal toss up Kingston and the Islands: Likely Liberal Kitchener Centre: PC/Liberal toss up Kitchener—Conestoga: Safe PC Kitchener South—Hespeler: Safe PC Lambton—Kent—Middlesex: Safe PC Lanark—Frontenac: Safe PC Leeds—Grenville: Safe PC London—Fanshawe: Safe NDP London North Centre: 3 way race London West: PC/NDP toss up Markham—Stouffville: Likely PC Markham—Thornhill: Likely Liberal Markham—Unionville: Safe PC Milton: Safe PC Mississauga Centre: PC/Liberal toss up Mississauga—Cooksville: PC/Liberal toss up Mississauga—Erin Mills: PC/Liberal toss up Mississauga—Lakeshore: PC/Liberal toss up Mississauga—Malton: PC/Liberal toss up Mississauga—Streetsville: PC/Liberal toss up Mushkegowuk: Safe NDP Nepean: Likely PC Newmarket—Aurora: Safe PC Niagara Centre: Likely NDP Niagara Falls: PC/NDP toss up Niagara West: Safe PC Nickel Belt: Safe NDP Nipissing: Safe PC Northumberland—Pine Ridge: Safe PC Oakville: Safe PC Oakville North—Burlington: Safe PC Oshawa: PC/NDP toss up Ottawa Centre: Liberal/NDP toss up Ottawa—Orléans: PC/Liberal toss up Ottawa South: Likely Liberal Ottawa—Vanier: Safe Liberal Ottawa West—Nepean: PC/Liberal toss up Oxford: Safe PC Parkdale—High Park: Likely NDP Parry Sound—Muskoka: Safe PC Perth—Wellington: Safe PC Peterborough: PC/Liberal toss up Pickering—Uxbridge: PC/Liberal toss up Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke: Safe pC Richmond Hill: PC/Liberal toss up St. Catharines: PC/Liberal toss up St. Paul's: Safe Liberal Sarnia—Lambton: Safe PC Sault Ste. Marie: Likely PC Scarborough—Agincourt: PC/Liberal toss up Scarborough Centre: PC/Liberal toss up Scarborough—Guildwood: PC/Liberal toss up Scarborough North: Likely PC Scarborough—Rouge Park: 3 way toss up Scarborough Southwest: 3 way toss up Simcoe—Grey: Safe PC Simcoe North: Safe PC Spadina—Fort York: Liberal/NDP toss up Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry: Safe PC Sudbury: 3 way toss up Thornhill: Safe PC Thunder Bay—Atitkokan: Liberal-NDP toss up Thunder Bay—Superior North: Liberal-NDP toss up Timiskaming—Cochrane: Safe NDP Timmins: Likely NDP Toronto Centre: Liberal-NDP toss up Toronto—Danforth: Safe NDP University—Rosedale: Liberal-NDP toss up Vaughan—Woodbridge: PC/Liberal toss up Waterloo: Likely NDP Wellington—Halton Hills: Safe PC Whitby: Safe PC Willowdale: PC/Liberal toss up Windsor—Tecumseh: Safe NDP Windsor West: Safe NDP York Centre: Likely PC York—Simcoe: Safe PC York South—Weston: Liberal/NDP toss up York West: Liberal/NDP toss up Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on August 24, 2017, 06:37:57 PM Sort of similar to mine with a few differences. Notice you show Kathleen Wynne being in potentially a bit of trouble. While not unprecedented do you actually think she could lose her seat? I believe the last sitting premier to lose their seat was David Peterson.
Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 24, 2017, 09:14:11 PM If the Tories are doing as well as polls show they are doing in Toronto, then she is toast. But I suppose it depends on what kind of voter Brown is attracting in Toronto? Is it the wealthy anglo saxon John Tory type PCer or is it the more working class/minority Ford nation type? The Liberals normally do well with both groups, but the Tories have done well with the former group historically. The recent by-election win in Scarborough suggests they are making inroads with the latter.
Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on August 25, 2017, 05:14:48 PM Is there a blank map available for Ontario as I was thinking of using that for predictions? If not I will post one once it is available as I am not sure if they have produced one for the revised ridings. I could at least for now do Southern Ontario as the boundaries are the same as the federal, but in Northern Ontario they are different.
Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: JerryArkansas on August 25, 2017, 05:28:20 PM Is there a blank map available for Ontario as I was thinking of using that for predictions? If not I will post one once it is available as I am not sure if they have produced one for the revised ridings. I could at least for now do Southern Ontario as the boundaries are the same as the federal, but in Northern Ontario they are different. () Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on August 25, 2017, 07:05:07 PM Using Hatman's predictions, here is the map I produced. Likely are a shade lighter than solid. For Liberal/PC toss up it is purple, green for NDP/PC toss up, Yellow for NDP/Liberal toss up and white for three way race
() PCs only win likely and solid lose everything else - This would be a weak Liberal minority () PCs win all the swings so landslide PC majority of 87 seats. () Ontario Liberals lose all the swings, so PC majority, NDP opposition and Liberals barely retaining official party status of 8 seats. () Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: Hatman 🍁 on August 25, 2017, 08:16:28 PM :D
Ottawa Centre should be orange in that last map Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on August 26, 2017, 12:09:32 AM :D Ottawa Centre should be orange in that last map Fixed, good catch. Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on September 09, 2017, 04:14:01 PM Brad Duguid isn't running again so at least for my predictions I would move Scarborough Centre from likely Liberal to Liberal/PC toss up. Normally it is a fairly safe Liberal riding, but with their lousy poll numbers could be vulnerable never mind Duguid was quite popular personally so that will probably hurt the party somewhat.
Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: Holmes on September 10, 2017, 12:24:53 PM If Liberals tank like in that last map, I wouldn't be surprised to see a Scarborough riding or two go to the NDP.
Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on September 14, 2017, 04:23:54 PM Using a simulator from too close to call http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/canada-simulator.html I plugged in the averages of the polls since January 1, 2017 and got the following map. The numbers would be PC 40.5%, OLP 29.2% NDP 23.1% GRN 5.2%. Note these are using the federal results so just a rough estimate not exact as I realize some local ones will swing differently and the North off courses uses different boundaries so I just made a best guess from there. Note some due to local circumstances are clearly wrong like I am pretty close to certain Vic Fidelli will hold Nipissing and I expect Brampton East to stay NDP if Jagmeet Singh runs, although if he doesn't it's hard to say. In the case of Nipissing because the boundaries are slightly different and only a two point spread I kept that one PC as the north is more judgement calls unlike the South. With Jagmeet Singh though I think he will win the federal NDP thus not run again, but will change to NDP if he doesn't win it.
Seat wise it is PC 76 seats NDP 25 seats, and Libs 22 seats () Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on October 02, 2017, 04:58:52 PM Here is a September map averaging all the polls for the month and I also included the one Forum from August as it was the only poll in August. Averages are PC 40.2%, OLP 29.4%, NDP 23.6% GRN 4.6%. PC 76 seats, NDP 25 seats, Libs 23 seats so close race for opposition despite Liberal lead in numbers. Note this is using the following swingometer off federal results so just a rough estimate not exact while for the North I made my own judgement calls since the boundaries are different than federal. ()
Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: JoeyOCanada on October 26, 2017, 02:07:15 PM I don't see any possible scenario in which the Liberals win another mandate. Kathleen Wynne has destroyed all credibility the party once had in Ontario.
Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on October 26, 2017, 11:21:24 PM I don't see any possible scenario in which the Liberals win another mandate. Kathleen Wynne has destroyed all credibility the party once had in Ontario. Generally concur, but you never know although if she did win it would be one of the biggest upsets ever. I think though a PC win is by far the most likely. Had the Liberals got a new leader they would have had a better chance although still probably would have lost but Wynne seems to have a low approval rating. Heck even the federal Liberals privately might be hoping for her to lose as I suspect her unpopularity is hurting them in Ontario. Title: Re: 2018 Ontario election Post by: mileslunn on March 27, 2018, 09:27:33 PM As we get closer, on a monthly basis, I thought I would add some maps of various projections.
The first one is from too close to call http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/ontario-2018-simulator.html (Note this is a simulator so a few individual ridings seem a bit weird but general picture still reasonable) () Here is from Calculated Politics http://www.calculatedpolitics.com/project/2018-ontario/ so more individualized although some of the projections like PCs winning Ottawa Centre and Hamilton East-Stoney Creek while Liberals winning Oakville seem truly bizarre, but overall numbers are reasonable even if some projections are questionable. () This is from Barry Kay's projections from Wilfred Laurier University and those too close to call are blank http://maps.lispop.ca/ontario_projections/ which has a map, () This is from http://www.electionprediction.org/2018_on/index.php which is individualized, but lots of blanks as right now 37 are still listed as too close to call, but will get filled in as we get closer and some called may even be changed as polls change. () This is QC125 which seems to be using a simulator on a uniform swing with some minor adjustments. Actually asides from the Lispop it seems the most realistic of them all as asides from maybe Timmins going PC all of them wins seem high probable no weird ones like some of the others. Only caveat is they have Etobicoke North going Liberal and I think if Doug Ford weren't leader that would be correct but with him as leader I think the PCs will win it. http://ontario.qc125.com/ () |