Talk Elections

https://twitter.com/skoczela/status/794101814757101568

Trump - 40
Clinton - 39
Johnson - 10
Stein - 3

Yeah, no

http://www.wbur.org/politicker/2016/11/03/trump-clinton-new-hampshire Full crosstabs and such, it should be noted no public polls showed Romney ahead of Obama in NH at this time in 2012.

Because most polls in 2012 were from quality pollsters, not crappy universities and hack partisan firms.

Anyway, this isn't a surprising result since this poll was showing Clinton barely ahead even when others had her up by double digits.

It gets an A- from 538 so it's not exactly what you would call "low-quality"

The last poll WBUR came out with in 2012 for NH was Obama +3.

JUNK POLL!  But I'm glad this know-nothing from Texas got a chance to jack off this morning.

know-nothing, dude.  it's know-nothing.

Umm...no

And he won by 6. So I guess that means this year it's gonna be Cinton by 3.

Jesus Alcon, its early.  Don't I get a typo mulligan before coffee?

Can you math, it would be Clinton +2

aww sorry, is your pride hurt over Clinton not winning by 9 nationally? Dreams crushed?

As we saw in the Marquette poll, anything taking during Comey gate probably effected democrat response rates.

I predicted NH is the most vulnerable firewall because of their independent-thinking.

She'll probably squeak by here but it'll be close.

Not the first poll from NH in recent days to have Trump ahead...but, like the other one, almost certainly trash.

This is a clear example of why this board is so low-quality.

I trust the amazing quality of WUMR. It's huge swings in 2012 made the best of sense.

I'm not referring to the results of the poll, but to HokeyDood's comments about dfwlibertylover.

That's a completely different pollster, this one was done by MASSInc

Why is this poll junk?  The pollster is considered good.

WBUR is not the same as WMUR.

That I wished bountiful happy-fappin' material upon him?  The prudery never ceases to amaze.  If DWFlibertylover was UNhappy that Scarlett Johansson's private photo collection was mailed to me by CNN I'd surely wonder why he was so bitter. 

As for the know-nothing jab?  Well, he's citing a WBUR poll so I'm hoping that this will be a delicious learning experience going forward in his Atlas career.

I honestly think you are confused, this pollster was not active in the 2012 Presidential election, you are probably thinking of WMUR, not WBUR

I did confuse the two, but looking now it seems even worse, a 16 point swing in less than two weeks.

Let's hope you're right.

That's a bit surprising, though I'm skeptical of that huge 3rd party number.. Thankfully, NV will make sure I don't need to worry about NH.

Lol, guys. Is it really that difficult?

A week ago Clinton was +7 nationally. It implies she was on average +7 in many swingstates including NH. When you're +7, most polls will show you from +4 to +10. But now she is about +2-4. It means that most polls will show her from T+1 to C+7.  

So?  The race has tightened CONSIDERABLY. Trump has a shot to be Mr. President. Muahahaa :)

It is not a typo.
http://www.dictionary.com/browse/typographical--error
It's ignorance/education gap, dude, as I told you before :)

beautiful poll!
NH has been moved to CO status (in serious contention)

God you are such a douch this morning.  Did someone wake up cranky.

I think LittleBigPlanet needs to play outside for a little bit. His posting history is almost non-stop and a little sunlight will help replenish his brain cells after spending nearly every minute of every day typing on the internet. He might even make some friends!

New Poll: New Hampshire President by MassInc on 2016-11-01 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3320161101198)

Summary: D: 39%, R: 40%, U: 4%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://d279m997dpfwgl.cloudfront.net/wp/2016/11/Topline-2016-10-WBUR-NH-General-6.pdf)

I'm thinking Clinton +1 or 2, so this is close to that (MOE). I also think undecideds break for Clinton here, but only if she stabilizes or gains momentum back.

I'm sorry.  Does "brain fart" work for you in this situation, Boofy? 

This morning? He's been a very low quality and purposely instigating poster all week. Given how much he posts, I wish the mods would slap him on the wrist again, but they won't. So instead, important threads are filled with childishness.

Lol, no. The level of Presidential General Election Polls board among Red hacks is like this:

Good results for Hillary                 FF, Great poll
Bad   results for Hillary                 Junk, trash

Sometimes Almost often the same pollster turn into low-quality from high-quality and back several times during a month.

Or when the poll deviates by a large margin from what the average is showing, we call it junk.  Can your hackishness not see that.

Going to wait for Suffolk before I try to draw any conclusions.

2 of those polls are now outdated (3-4 points for Clinton on 10-25-16), and the other is just as far from the average, but seems to be pro-Clinton (+7).

It's possible it an outlier, but also possible it is pretty close.

Isn't this a state that is considered apart of the "firewall"?

It's concerning considering the closer to election day the more accurate this poll is, but I really doubt Johnson is at 10% and that the winning candidate is still only at 40%.

Yeah, and most polls have shown it to be one. This is definitely an interesting result, but it alone doesn't mean the state has turned. As I mentioned earlier, too, we're very close to Nevada being in the bag, which would wipe out a surprise loss in NH. Frankly, I would call NV a "firewall" state at this point, though I know not everyone agrees on that.

Because it doesn't show Clinton up 20 pts or something. Whey they don't like the result it's either outlier or junk. There is no third.

Trump will win here. I'm so glad.

Trash poll. The Johnson number is way off by the way.

You can throw every poll showing the leading candidate well under 45% right into the garbage. Except UT of course.

I think that what happened is during the height of comey gate a lot of Democrats refused to commit to her in polls but have come back quickly, hence some strange polls. Certainly the feel of the election now is that she is quite comfortable but not reflected in these numbers - which are still all over the place

NH went for bush, so it's firewall plus.

This poll makes perfect sense if you think the day Comey dropped his announcement, Trump had a +10 day like in the Marquette poll.

OK guys, so here we have a poll showing Trump winning a firewall state, conducted by a pollster that is not trash and the poll doesn't have any indication that it's trash.  What's the excuse now?

If this poll accurately reflects the state of the race, and I'm unconvinced by the flood of "trash!  junk!  f*** you!" posts in this thread claiming that there's some mysterious reason to believe it doesn't, then Trump will win the 2016 presidential election and be placed in charge of the world's largest economy, most powerful military, the bedrock of the United Nations, the moral compass of much of the third world, the core of the world's anti-communist and anti-fascist alliance network, the world's fiat currency and gold stockpile, and a nuclear arsenal capable of destroying all life on the planet.

Please, add head-to-head numbers to the title, Trump +2 :)

Trump 44%
Clinton 42%




JOHNSON / STEIN VOTER SHIFT
Johnson to Clinton 8%
Johnson to Trump 17%
Stein     to Clinton 5%
Stein     to Trump 3%

Shift  to Other / Don't know 67%

Total 102 voters

Here's my question for this poll - why are undecideds so high NOW?

Maybe because in this poll they are both seen as unfavorable by 20+ margins. Man Dems you really wanted this close election...

Why would Shy Trumpistas like to be called Deplorables NOW? :P

It seems like polling has shown a lot of people taking the step from Clinton to Undecided in the last couple days. Whether or not they'll make the leap from Undecided to Trump on election day is yet to be seen

Wow.
Is this state going to be close ?
NH is tricky to read.

Completely in line with the falling out of Clinton with white voters seen recently in polls from GA and MO.

I think thats very temporary because of the comey news, and not a permanent thing. Everyone is back for election day

So Hillary going from being far ahead in NH to being behind is believable, but the margin not changing in FL isn't believable? lol

They should repeat the poll now that the comey scandal is last week