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Title: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Speed of Sound on November 03, 2016, 03:15:05 PM Among 500 LVs, Nov 1-2:
Clinton 44 (+4 since mid-October) Trump 38 (+3) Johson 7 (-5) Stein 2 (-3) http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-US-President-Survey-Summary-110316.pdf Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Horus on November 03, 2016, 03:15:51 PM Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado.
Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Person Man on November 03, 2016, 03:16:49 PM Isn't that Rove's outfit? If that is true, Trump gets ed and not proper ed.
Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck on November 03, 2016, 03:17:04 PM SMASHING!!!
Sweet poll! Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on November 03, 2016, 03:17:19 PM Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado. Her ceiling seems to be around 45%. We don't know how undecideds will break, or if Johnson voters switch to Trump on election day. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Lief 🗽 on November 03, 2016, 03:18:00 PM Wow, nice. Clinton on track to win by high double digits here.
Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: BoAtlantis on November 03, 2016, 03:18:31 PM Isn't this a Republican firm?
Yet +6 Clinton? Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Ronnie on November 03, 2016, 03:18:36 PM The firewall stands as strong as ever! As long as Clinton holds Nevada and Pennsylvania, which seems highly likely, things look very good for her.
Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Ljube on November 03, 2016, 03:21:00 PM Colorado is 100% absentee vote. No chance for a Republican in such a setup.
Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 03, 2016, 03:23:14 PM Colorado is 100% absentee vote. No chance for a Republican in such a setup. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2014 Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Ljube on November 03, 2016, 03:25:04 PM Colorado is 100% absentee vote. No chance for a Republican in such a setup. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Colorado,_2014 The best imaginable Pub candidate against the disastrous Mark Uterus by just 40k votes. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 03, 2016, 03:28:52 PM Isn't this a Republican firm? Yet +6 Clinton? It is a "C" pollster according to wise white man Nate Silver :) Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 03, 2016, 03:31:37 PM karl rove is #nevertrump....just sayin'. ;)
Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Moderate Pennsylvanian on November 03, 2016, 03:32:23 PM Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado. Her ceiling seems to be around 45%. We don't know how undecideds will break, or if Johnson voters switch to Trump on election day. If you don't know how undecideds will break, then you don't know that her ceiling is around 45%. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Frozen Sky Ever Why on November 03, 2016, 03:35:05 PM Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado. Her ceiling seems to be around 45%. We don't know how undecideds will break, or if Johnson voters switch to Trump on election day. If you don't know how undecideds will break, then you don't know that her ceiling is around 45%. Why would someone willing to vote against Trump not have decided against him by now? What the hell could they possibly be waiting for? Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Person Man on November 03, 2016, 03:36:04 PM Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado. Her ceiling seems to be around 45%. We don't know how undecideds will break, or if Johnson voters switch to Trump on election day. If you don't know how undecideds will break, then you don't know that her ceiling is around 45%. At any rate, if Hillary loses in Colorado, the whole election would have been called for Trump before Colorado is called. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 03:38:31 PM ()
Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Speed of Sound on November 03, 2016, 03:39:21 PM Site's back up. Here's the full data:
http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-US-President-Survey-Summary-110316.pdf Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Person Man on November 03, 2016, 03:43:04 PM Site's back up. Here's the full data: http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-US-President-Survey-Summary-110316.pdf Maybe too many Hispanics, but 15% could happen...if they are really THAT motivated. Let's say its like 12-13%... then still Hillary is leading by like 4. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Moderate Pennsylvanian on November 03, 2016, 03:47:39 PM Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado. Her ceiling seems to be around 45%. We don't know how undecideds will break, or if Johnson voters switch to Trump on election day. If you don't know how undecideds will break, then you don't know that her ceiling is around 45%. Why would someone willing to vote against Trump not have decided against him by now? What the hell could they possibly be waiting for? So you're saying you do know how undecideds will break, and they'll all break for Trump. That's ridiculous. To turn your question around, why would someone willing to vote against Clinton not have decided against her by now? Who knows, but as long as there are undecideds, some will end up voting for Clinton, some for Trump, some for third parties. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 03, 2016, 03:51:45 PM Quote Survey Weighting Decisions Our survey weighting decisions take into account the age, gender, and party turnout demographics of the 2012 Presidential election in Colorado and the demographics of current returned ballot data. Methodology seems legit. I think, Trump should be concetrating on other states now, given that 65% has already voted in CO. Though a few addional polls would be nice. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Hammy on November 03, 2016, 03:52:44 PM Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado. Her ceiling seems to be around 45%. We don't know how undecideds will break, or if Johnson voters switch to Trump on election day. If you don't know how undecideds will break, then you don't know that her ceiling is around 45%. Why would someone willing to vote against Trump not have decided against him by now? What the hell could they possibly be waiting for? So you're saying you do know how undecideds will break, and they'll all break for Trump. That's ridiculous. To turn your question around, why would someone willing to vote against Clinton not have decided against her by now? Who knows, but as long as there are undecideds, some will end up voting for Clinton, some for Trump, some for third parties. It's entirely likely many of those undecideds don't vote at all as well, so you can't just automatically assume they're all Trump just because your pessimism is disrupting your ability to use logic. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Eraserhead on November 03, 2016, 03:53:20 PM Isn't that Rove's outfit? If that is true, Trump gets ed and not proper ed. It's not like Rove is going to spin anything for Trump. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Person Man on November 03, 2016, 04:01:20 PM Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado. Her ceiling seems to be around 45%. We don't know how undecideds will break, or if Johnson voters switch to Trump on election day. If you don't know how undecideds will break, then you don't know that her ceiling is around 45%. Why would someone willing to vote against Trump not have decided against him by now? What the hell could they possibly be waiting for? So you're saying you do know how undecideds will break, and they'll all break for Trump. That's ridiculous. To turn your question around, why would someone willing to vote against Clinton not have decided against her by now? Who knows, but as long as there are undecideds, some will end up voting for Clinton, some for Trump, some for third parties. It's entirely likely many of those undecideds don't vote at all as well, so you can't just automatically assume they're all Trump just because your pessimism is disrupting your ability to use logic. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: mark_twain on November 03, 2016, 04:02:18 PM Great poll! Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 03, 2016, 04:03:18 PM Good news.
Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: dspNY on November 03, 2016, 04:09:09 PM Colorado is still at worst Lean Dem
Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Beefalow and the Consumer on November 03, 2016, 04:20:12 PM Looks right. Clinton isn't losing Colorado. Her ceiling seems to be around 45%. We don't know how undecideds will break, or if Johnson voters switch to Trump on election day. The Johnson is strong with this one. CO will have the second highest Johnson vote in the country. 45% might be enough. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Ozymandias on November 03, 2016, 04:24:35 PM Of the 64.4% (322/500) of respondents who said they already voted:
Clinton - 46 (+6.0) Trump - 40 Johnson - 8 Stein - 2 Other - 2 Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Hammy on November 03, 2016, 04:45:21 PM Is this a reputable pollster?
Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: GeorgiaModerate on November 03, 2016, 04:48:30 PM Is this a reputable pollster? 538 rates them as C with a bias of R+0.6 based on 13 previous polls. Title: Re: Magellan Strategies - CO: Clinton+6 Post by: Person Man on November 03, 2016, 04:48:38 PM Is this a reputable pollster? Title: CO: Magellan Strategies: Clinton Leads in Colorado Post by: ElectionAtlas on November 03, 2016, 05:36:09 PM New Poll: Colorado President by Magellan Strategies on 2016-11-02 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=820161102120)
Summary: D: 44%, R: 38%, U: 7% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://magellanstrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/Magellan-Strategies-Colorado-US-President-Survey-Summary-110316.pdf) |