Talk Elections

https://mobile.twitter.com/MajorCBS/status/793954005743452161

https://mobile.twitter.com/ron_fournier/status/793764406798774272

Any thought folks?

No. Next.

F-I-N-I-S-H-E-D. Called it, standing by it.

Yes.

It doesn't matter.  She'll die from her rare neurological disorder before election day.

Certainly not.

20% chance at each
(source: 538, predictit)

no@VA

there is a motivation gap with big MI-AA-turnout.....

No.

Even I had Hillary winning MI and VA but I suppose my prediction map is about to get even bluer.

So an unspecified "internal" and a D+7 poll means Clinton is losing those states?


You seem like you want Trump to win at this point just to be proven right.

For some reason completely conceding the race calms my frustration with it somewhat. Have no idea why.

Emotional detachment, probably. But pessimistic as I am, I'm still not confident enough to really call it either way, because I have doubts about Florida and New Hampshire (not doubts Clinton will win, but doubts that I can easily determine either way who wins). But Michigan and most likely Virginia are safe, I wouldn't go based on internals that show favorable results for the party conducting them.

No

You guys are setting yourselves up for some major disappointment.

I heard her spleen is full of pus and it's causing her not to be able to digest food and her liver's shot because of the inordinate amount of booze she drinks.

I will change my signature to a non-ironic picture of some kind of Trump banner if Trump wins either of Michigan or Virginia, because I think it's super unlikely in both cases.

btw, she currently leads in Michigan by more than Obama did in 2012,

ROFL

Nope

Not sure if you're trolling.

Agree.
Michigan is the "easier" possibility (though unlikely), but Virginia .... forget it.

Those are pipe dreams. NO.

Depends on how many Blacks the red cap wearing Trump militia takes out before Election Day.

Our dear bed-wetter (attention-seeker) is now trying to find avenues for Clinton to fail as the doors close. It's an interesting form of goal-post shifting.

i think, besides question of midwest/NH-turnout, clinton is in the good by now.

and funny that WI seems to be safer right now than MI/PA. (could be a trick.....wish all states would have EV.)

I'm still not entirely convinced the states are complete toss ups. Clinton has hit 50% in 2 recent MI polls. I thought VA was safe but apparently not. And it's others on this forum that have been predicting Gillespie redux, I've had VA red in even my most panicked predictions.

Hillary is in danger of losing the election if this email scandal shows any more "dodgy" behind-the-scenes behaviour.

Nope!

Both would be a substantial surprise.

Michigan is the more likely of the two.

Many people are saying that.

MI will be the shocker of the night. Just wait 4 days.

She'll win both in the end, but she'd have a greater danger of losing Michigan than she would Virginia this cycle.

Not if current trends are any indication. Comeystag rolling off the calendar helps too

Not very likely.

Michigan maybe.

Looking at the polls with Clinton having a narrow lead nationwide, and yet enjoying substantial leads in NY, CA and VA, up in NC and FL, polling as expected in WI, MN, PA, CO and much closer than a Dem normally is in TX, GA, AZ - so where is Trump strong for the national polls to be close? Part of that is OH, part MO but he also has to be closer than a Republican normally is somewhere unexpected, and MI seems ripe for that.

he is very strong in new england.....compared to his predecessors.

NY.

There is no data whatsoever to support a Trump victory in either of these.  Since September 1, Trump has not won a single poll in Michigan.  Not even one.  Out of 47.  And Trump has won three polls in Virginia.  Out of 50.  And two of those were Google junk polls.

If he wins either of these, it would be utterly shocking.  As shocking as Clinton winning Georgia, where Clinton has won exactly one poll since 9/1.

Virginia no, Michigan maybe, we need more polls.

only Michigan
She wins VA by about 8-10
Michigan is a nailbiter