Talk Elections

Missouri: Trump +11
Trump - 52%
Clinton - 41%

Nevada: Clinton +3
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 45%

New Hampshire: Clinton +5
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 43%

North Carolina: Clinton +2
Clinton - 49%
Trump - 47%

Pennsylvania Clinton +4
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 44%

Wisconsin: Clinton +7
Clinton - 48%
Trump - 41%

Polls conducted for Center for American Progress, a progressive public policy research and advocacy organization.

https://cdn.americanprogress.org/content/uploads/sites/2/2016/11/03143903/NationalMemo112-Final.pdf

For a Dem group, but solid results for Clinton outside PA/MO.

What did I tell you guys?

I know I went full fatalist last Friday. I apologize for that. But now isn't the time to despair. Dear Donny is getting the belt big league next Tuesday.


Clinton by 7-11 in the popular vote.

What a shock drop by PPP! Really didn't expect anything more out of them this cycle. Considering the dates for these polls, encouraging numbers everywhere.

WRONG!

You know you're desperate when you use a progressive advocate group poll to boast about your so called NH predictions

That looks about right and confirms, what I’ve been saying for a while: There is no realistic path for the Trumpster to the magic 270. He’s just not going to win. His ceiling his 220 EVs; maybe he even falls below Romney (2012-NC).

How many times do we have to go over the situation regarding PPP's private polling...

These are good enough for Hillary.

Wisconsin appears to be safe for sure.

PPP don't lie

Makes me relieved

7-11? lol, not sure how you're seeing that from these.

Missouri aligning with consensus makes me think the rest of these are legit

Muhahahaha, goodbye Trump.

Mm actually you ought to know that their public polls and their "gun advocacy group" polls are much different.

Indeed.

But I'm glad the dems have something to cling their hopes to, this makes me feel very good about our Senate majority if they can only find the dems up by 2-3 in NV, NH, and PA and find the GOP up in MO and NC :D

It's a poll where they ask the horse race questions, then the others.  Nothing is changed.

Ok, what do they do to change the methodology? Add 5000 dead liberals?

Great numbers. Pussygroper P. Putin's Puppet is going to be sobbing in Ivanka's bosom Tuesday night.

Hmm, you don't think asking a bunch of gun control questions and then the horse race questions impacts at all?

Any Dems concerned about the Philly transit strike shaving some votes off the margin there?

The problem is not that they do anything different, it's that it's a private poll and an advocacy group is going to release only favorable polls.  For example, this could be the second or third iteration of those polls and these are the most favorable to Hillary.  Also, for example, they may have also polled Michigan and not released it because it was unfavorable to Hillary.  You get the idea.  With that said, these are probably correct except for NC.

No. We've been over this.

Trump is doing much better in Pennsylvania than I had ever imagined. He should spend every waking moment in PA, FL, and NC this week with and blast a bit in Ohio too. That's the only path. NV is not happening so it makes NH not worth it.

Looks like Trump is going to be toast, if this holds up.

This could also be a sign that some of Dems might be going home after Clinton's FBI fiasco.

Must have missed it, why is it not a concern?  If the race turns out to be super close a 10/20K vote reduced margin in Philly could make a difference (however unlikely).  Or is the strike going to definitely be resolved by then?

SENATE

WI: Feingold +5
NV: Cortez-Mastro +3
NH: Hassan +3
PA: McGinty +2
NC: Burr +3
MO: Blunt +2

Great poll results!

Go Clinton!

PA is Fool’s Gold for the Republicans. They targeted the state in all previous elections, especially in 2012, but it didn’t work out. You could argue that Mr. Drumpf’s message is different from previous nominees and more appealing to some Rust Belt voters. Nevertheless, with these devastating numbers among college-educated suburban voters, women in particular, he has a only a very tiny chance to take the state. PA flipping Republican this election is just not happening. And quite frankly, I think it won’t be even as close as expected. Hillary is going to win by at least five points, probably as much as seven or eight. Keep also in mind that he did not lead a single poll in PA for a couple of months now. And as you correctly pointed out, another realistic path to 270 EVs is just not there for the Trumpster.

Here's a handy summary of results:

()

Kander is only Dem running ahead of Clinton.

If PA and CO holds, then taking Nevada would close most paths for Dumpster Fire

Fantastic numbers but I refuse to get my hopes up. Trump being at 45% and below in most swing states is the most encouraging news.

Solid!

Oh, I know, he has no shot here right now, believe me, but do you just expect him to give up? That's idiocy.


Extraordinarily tiny precincts mean that there should be no need to rely on public transportation to get to the polls.

SUPER DUPER SOLID!!! 

PA is a little low but Donny's numbers in Philly and SE are fatal. 

to be fair, PPP always showed lower numbers in PA than just about any other poll.

No.
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/pennsylvania/

If this was done for a progressive group, I'd take a point or two off Clinton's margins, otherwise given that it's PPP it looks about right.

PPP normal polling is a bit favorable to republicans if were weighting them i'd say add 2 dem for it being them than +2 r for it being for a specific group.

Well, this is more than a bit relieving.

Senate numbers suggest that NC and MO might be slipping away, though...

Allen Mears ‏@AllenMears  2m2 minutes ago
.@ppppolls latest: Hillary's real firewall: WOMEN

NH Women 53-39 +14C
NV W 52-40 +12C
WI W 55-34 +21C
PA W 51-41 +10C
NC W 53-41 +12C

I'd hardly say that. They are in line with what we've been seeing for some time now:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/nc/north_carolina_senate_burr_vs_d_ross-5693.html
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/senate/mo/missouri_senate_blunt_vs_kander-5631.html

They are both still essentially tossups. I think NC will be determined by whether Trump or Clinton wins it, and by how much (C+3 or more could bring Ross over I think). Missouri, who knows. But really those numbers shouldn't change your outlook given other recent polls for those races.

A lot of people have totally gave up on Kander or Koster winning MO SEN or MO GOV. They say its too hard and impossible.

I certainly hope you're right. Ross winning would be especially heartening, but for that to happen, I think that the AA share of the electorate needs to stay roughly where it was in 2012 - and it's currently far behind...

They need five to take the senate... the three (NH, PA, and WI) plus IL is a gimme plus one of IN, NC, or MO. 

Will we get anymore Ohio numbers?

On election night--I don't see anymore polls being taken (though I don't understand while they're still polling Missouri either.)