Talk Elections

http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/11/04/fox-news-poll-clinton-ahead-trump-by-two-points.html

4 way:
Clinton - 45
Trump - 43

2 way:
Clinton - 46
Trump - 45

Time taken?

Taken during the height of Comeygate, so that is a bad poll for trump

Link?

1st-3rd november.

Yep, she's fine :)

()

Shes doing two points better than Obama.

you guys and your peak comeygate thing is really getting silly, stop shilling

one point better than i guessed.

day to day result would be interesting.

This post is peak dfwlibertylover.

I've posted enough to start to become a brand name? :D

Its true though.

so what you are saying is, even though this poll was taken Tuesday through Thursday, starting today it suddenly just dropped off the voters minds.

A single point shift towards Trump is quite a relief.

If we had a day to day breakdown of the poll, I'd bet her numbers recovered in between that three day period.

Good result for her. Her lead is probably 3-4.

I think our friend dfwlibertylover is looking for more panic and despair from us red avatars. We shouldn't disappoint him, now should we...

OH NO! Hillary is IMPLODING! This poll proves that Trump will be ahead and win on election day! The sky is falling! Fascism will reign supreme! My brain is going to exlpode! AAAAAH!

Better? :P

No No I just want people to admit there is not going to be a Clinton landslide

no landslide.

just maybe a sunbelt-revolt.

#realignment

Probably not, but I don't think we can completely rule out a larger than 2012 win for her.

We will find out very soon. No need to get people to admit anything.

I thought it was going to be a tie or Trump lead  Cool.

Dems
Clinton 90%
Trump 4%
Johnson 2%
Stein 1%

GOP
Trump 85%
Clinton 5%
Johnson 4%
Stein 1%

Indies
Trump 41%
Clinton 33%
Johnson 11%
Stein 3%

men: Trump +11
women: Clinton +13
whites: Trump +19
non-whites: Clinton +53
white college degree: Trump +3
white no college degree: Trump +33
urban: Clinton +24
suburban: Clinton +4
rural: Trump +19
under age 35: Clinton +16
age 35-54: Trump +17
age 55+: Clinton +7
under $50k income: Clinton +22
over $50k income: Trump +8

Clinton is definitely doing better than this, for 3 reasons:

1) The poll was taken partly during the Comey "shock" period, which has since then dissipated.

2) Better numbers for early voting.

3) Better ground game for Election Day.


If Fox News is a reliable poll, then I predict a 5% lead in the popular vote for Clinton, after all votes are counted.

Dude, I know you Red Hacks are trying your hardest, but this is pathetic.

I will post this till the cows come home.

We will find out in 4 days.

Absolutely. There is a panic in Brooklyn and it shows here as well. Peak Comeygate was weekend, this poll started tuesday.

I've said it before if the race is tighter than 3pts and it seems it is, nobody knows how EC map will look like. Polling error could go either way but if it goes Trump way, than they should embrace for Trump train on tuesday.

What is true?

Yeah. I thought it would be 4-7 Nov. Oh, wait

The 3-5/6 will give us a final look at the electorate, but note that her ground game is off the charts with the EV and she baked in a week of at least +5, another week of at least +3, and there's election day.

Note that Obama won by 4 in 2012 with some national polls showing Romney ahead. No national polls show Romney ahead outside of trackers with heavy R house effect. She's going to win +3-5.

Note of caution - this isn't Fox's last national poll. Hmmm....

The difference is that Obama could win EV losing PV. It is other way around this year. If it TIE or even C+1 (or even C+2 if Trump is extremely lucky), he has a good shot.

No, he doesn't. He's failed horrendously at the early vote. We're talking almost 40 million here so far.

Eh, no. EV looks friendly to him.

Once again, non-whites are too low here for Clinton. She wins Latino's by 60 and Blacks probably by 80 - no way does the margin hover in the low 50's.

What world are you living in? In what important state does the EV look good for him?

Ohio, Iowa, maybe North Carolina and Florida.

Ok, borderline, no and definitely not

2012 redux.

EV = elections votes. Obama could win EV losing PV (popular votes), Clinton won't.

Uh, guys, peak Comeygate would be the last days of October. First days of November is when the rebound is supposed to have started.

^^
Honestly the lies being posted here for self-reassurance are giving me second thoughts on all the other comments that I have taken at face value for the past week or two. She should still win easily, but if I was a Clinton fan, I'd finally just have a tiny ounce of fear. Very tiny. His chances have gone up from about 2% to 8-10%

this lol

Yep. Clinton is still likely to win (PV only :P), but it becomes so f**king PATHETIC to babble about peak Dickpick.

I look at state polls and Obama's very slim average national lead going into election day 4 years ago.

How do you see Trump winning the EV?

I stick to 538 and don't pay that much attention to early voting, which is not that predictive. If it was, why would Clinton camp or CNN/FOX/[write in] spent so much money on polls, amIrite?

At this point, as long as Clinton wins and Hitler Jr is given the boot, and the Dems have a majority in the Senate, I will be happy.