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Title: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: The Other Castro on November 04, 2016, 07:36:50 PM Clinton - 50%
Trump - 38% Johnson - 4% Stein - 2% 51% say they have already returned their ballot (WA is all mail voting I believe). Among them, Clinton leads 57-35-3-2. Among people that haven't voted yet, Clinton leads 42-41-4-1. http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=befe5f60-092c-48e8-b36f-b5ae8e28048e Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2016, 07:38:27 PM Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon?
Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: Ebsy on November 04, 2016, 07:58:01 PM Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon? Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 04, 2016, 08:02:19 PM Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon? Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 04, 2016, 08:06:21 PM Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon? () Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 04, 2016, 08:15:05 PM Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon? () () Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: Person Man on November 04, 2016, 08:23:25 PM Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon? () () Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 04, 2016, 08:32:40 PM It is like Brexit though... One candidate is up all season, and then, a week before Election Day, the polls suddenly tighten. But [fill in the blank]
;) Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 04, 2016, 08:48:21 PM i wish brexit would have happened 1 or 2 years earlier, so that we could either watch how fast little britain caved into or how fast it was losing importance after crippling its own economy.
Title: WA: Survey USA: Clinton With Solid Lead in Washington Post by: ElectionAtlas on November 04, 2016, 10:07:48 PM New Poll: Washington President by Survey USA on 2016-11-02 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=5320161102019)
Summary: D: 50%, R: 38%, U: 4% Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=befe5f60-092c-48e8-b36f-b5ae8e28048e) Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: Xing on November 04, 2016, 10:30:30 PM Seems too low, but polls have often understated the eventual Democratic margin in Washington. Hillary should win by at least 15% here.
Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: MasterJedi on November 04, 2016, 11:15:20 PM What's this fascination with Brexit? The Brits have had awful polling many times: 1992, 2015, Brexit, others. They can't poll crap, I don't think that American polling has ever been that bad overall.
Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: IceSpear on November 05, 2016, 02:38:14 AM Why do I have a feeling SUSA is going to be this year's Mason Dixon? Considering probably 80% of the polls we're getting are pure junk, that would be very unsurprising. Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: Alcon on November 05, 2016, 03:25:07 AM I'm actually in the minority here that things Clinton +12 is perfectly possible here in WA. We have an unusual number of non-college white voters who usually vote Democratic, and our college-educated voters were already so Democratic. Outside of a few areas, I don't think we have a ton of the sort of white Democratic-leaners Trump might convert, but we also don't have a ton of the sort of Republicans Clinton will, either. I think +12 might be a little low but it's definitely plausible.
Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: Alaska2392 on November 05, 2016, 08:04:32 AM I would also imagine that one of two things is happening:
1) People are lying about whether they have already turned in their ballot. or 2) The sample is not completely representative since we know historically that later arriving ballots tend to be more Democratic. Title: Re: WA-SurveyUSA: Clinton +12 Post by: Phony Moderate on November 05, 2016, 08:04:51 AM It is like Brexit though... One candidate is up all season, and then, a week before Election Day, the polls suddenly tighten. But [fill in the blank] ;) Remain was actually generally ahead until about two weeks prior to the vote, when Leave's poll numbers peaked (although even then some polls still showed a Remain lead). Then most polls in the last few days showed a clear Remain lead. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum |