Talk Elections

http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tight-race-iowa-grassley-young-blum-leads-loras-college-poll-finds/

Clinton 44
Trump 43
Johnson 3
Stein 3

WOW!

Junk

But if they're right, LOLras is no laughing matter.

lolras

BS.

Trump is likely up 2-3, but it will be close.

How hilarious would it be if Selzer shows the same thing lol

I mean, obviously Loras is not a good poll, but their methodology seems sound. I'd certainly trust a live-caller, voter-list poll with close to even mix of landline and cell phone to whatever Emerson does.

Also note that Trump will be campaigning in Iowa this weekend...

One point movement towards Clinton since late September. They've been quite a bit to the left of most pollsters in IA. Like, 5-6 points left.

lol I can only dream it's true

good thing we have the DMR poll tonight at 7

Quinnipiac showed a tied race before Comey-gate, and Emerson is absolute trash, so I'm quite interested in this Selzer poll tonight.

This is just like a teaser for the real poll of Iowa coming tonight.

Relevant:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239884.0

Can't wait. DMR is by far the best for Iowa.

I will say that if Loras somehow is right and Selzer is off again, Iowa is a hard state to poll Trump in.

Senate numbers seem reasonable, Grassley +16.

They actually have favorable numbers for the incumbent Republican congresscritters, so they might actually be right. We'll see on election day.

New Poll: Iowa President by Loras College on 2016-11-03 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920161103230)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 43%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tight-race-iowa-grassley-young-blum-leads-loras-college-poll-finds/)

I don't see why Clinton winning by one is such an implausible result. Yes, this if LOLras, so of course this particular poll isn't to be trusted, but I really don't buy Iowa being Safe Trump.

Clinton once again dominating the early vote:

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/LCP-NOV-IA-2016.pdf

Of the 26.2% (131/500) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton = 57% (69/121)
Trump = 29% (35/121)
Other = 9% (11/121)

Clinton should almost certainly be a slight favorite here. This or Arizona will probably be the closest state.

Based on what? The same poll showed her +14 ahead in June! Also, do you really believe there is a 28(!)-point difference in favourability? I wouldn't be surprised they are doing this based on 2012 turnout numbers.

Loras makes Emerson look good.

Any good pollsters in the field in Iowa now?

Des Moines Register. That's the "cream of the crop" poll. Coming out tonight.

Hopefully they get it right this time around.

Unless I'm wrong....they had Obama +5, and final was Obama +6. Means they were perhaps the most accurate pollster in '12.

Loras is probably the worst pollster out there.

Yeah, not buying this, but at least it means it's still close. Looking forward to Selzer.

Idiots Out Wandering Around are bound to hear the Trumpet call and erroneously think it's time for supper.

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I was tempted to make my final prediction a few minutes ago... I am now waiting for the Selzer poll of Iowa.   

Isn't this basically just as D-leaning trash as the CO/MI/PA ones are R-leaning trash?