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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 10:59:52 am



Title: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 10:59:52 am
http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tight-race-iowa-grassley-young-blum-leads-loras-college-poll-finds/

Clinton 44
Trump 43
Johnson 3
Stein 3

WOW!


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 05, 2016, 11:00:59 am
Junk

But if they're right, LOLras is no laughing matter.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2016, 11:01:10 am
lolras


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2016, 11:01:22 am
BS.

Trump is likely up 2-3, but it will be close.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 11:01:56 am
How hilarious would it be if Selzer shows the same thing lol


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 11:02:08 am
I mean, obviously Loras is not a good poll, but their methodology seems sound. I'd certainly trust a live-caller, voter-list poll with close to even mix of landline and cell phone to whatever Emerson does.

Also note that Trump will be campaigning in Iowa this weekend...


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 11:02:28 am
One point movement towards Clinton since late September. They've been quite a bit to the left of most pollsters in IA. Like, 5-6 points left.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 05, 2016, 11:03:11 am
lol I can only dream it's true


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: dfwlibertylover on November 05, 2016, 11:03:43 am
good thing we have the DMR poll tonight at 7


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 11:04:05 am
Quinnipiac showed a tied race before Comey-gate, and Emerson is absolute trash, so I'm quite interested in this Selzer poll tonight.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: john cage bubblegum on November 05, 2016, 11:04:51 am
This is just like a teaser for the real poll of Iowa coming tonight.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Polarized MT Treasurer on November 05, 2016, 11:05:05 am
Relevant:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=239884.0


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Donnie on November 05, 2016, 11:06:02 am
good thing we have the DMR poll tonight at 7

Can't wait. DMR is by far the best for Iowa.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 05, 2016, 11:06:45 am
I will say that if Loras somehow is right and Selzer is off again, Iowa is a hard state to poll Trump in.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Castro on November 05, 2016, 11:13:34 am
Senate numbers seem reasonable, Grassley +16.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2016, 11:15:09 am
They actually have favorable numbers for the incumbent Republican congresscritters, so they might actually be right. We'll see on election day.


Title: IA: Loras College: Close Race for President in Iowa
Post by: Dave Leip on November 05, 2016, 11:20:40 am
New Poll: Iowa President by Loras College on 2016-11-03 (https://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=1920161103230)

Summary: D: 44%, R: 43%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (http://www.loras.edu/news/clinton-trump-tight-race-iowa-grassley-young-blum-leads-loras-college-poll-finds/)


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Xing on November 05, 2016, 11:30:29 am
I don't see why Clinton winning by one is such an implausible result. Yes, this if LOLras, so of course this particular poll isn't to be trusted, but I really don't buy Iowa being Safe Trump.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Ozymandias on November 05, 2016, 11:30:44 am
Clinton once again dominating the early vote:

http://www.loras.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/LCP-NOV-IA-2016.pdf

Of the 26.2% (131/500) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton = 57% (69/121)
Trump = 29% (35/121)
Other = 9% (11/121)


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 05, 2016, 11:34:32 am
Clinton should almost certainly be a slight favorite here. This or Arizona will probably be the closest state.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: alomas on November 05, 2016, 11:47:15 am
Clinton should almost certainly be a slight favorite here. This or Arizona will probably be the closest state.
Based on what? The same poll showed her +14 ahead in June! Also, do you really believe there is a 28(!)-point difference in favourability? I wouldn't be surprised they are doing this based on 2012 turnout numbers.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 05, 2016, 11:48:10 am
Loras makes Emerson look good.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 12:10:48 pm
Loras makes Emerson look good.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: rafta_rafta on November 05, 2016, 12:14:37 pm
Any good pollsters in the field in Iowa now?


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 12:15:16 pm
Any good pollsters in the field in Iowa now?

Des Moines Register. That's the "cream of the crop" poll. Coming out tonight.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 05, 2016, 12:17:45 pm
Any good pollsters in the field in Iowa now?

Des Moines Register. That's the "cream of the crop" poll. Coming out tonight.
Hopefully they get it right this time around.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 12:23:34 pm
Any good pollsters in the field in Iowa now?

Des Moines Register. That's the "cream of the crop" poll. Coming out tonight.
Hopefully they get it right this time around.

Unless I'm wrong....they had Obama +5, and final was Obama +6. Means they were perhaps the most accurate pollster in '12.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2016, 12:34:19 pm
Loras is probably the worst pollster out there.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 05, 2016, 12:34:36 pm
Yeah, not buying this, but at least it means it's still close. Looking forward to Selzer.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Snowguy716 on November 05, 2016, 03:18:08 pm
Idiots Out Wandering Around are bound to hear the Trumpet call and erroneously think it's time for supper.


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: HokeyDood on November 05, 2016, 04:46:51 pm
Loras is probably the worst pollster out there.

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Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: pbrower2a on November 05, 2016, 05:54:19 pm
I was tempted to make my final prediction a few minutes ago... I am now waiting for the Selzer poll of Iowa.   


Title: Re: Loras-Iowa: CLINTON +1
Post by: Hammy on November 05, 2016, 06:47:24 pm
Isn't this basically just as D-leaning trash as the CO/MI/PA ones are R-leaning trash?