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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 01:41:08 pm



Title: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 01:41:08 pm
Link (http://www.mcall.com/g00/news/local/elections/mc-pa-poll-trump-clinton-toomey-mcginty-20161105-story.html).

Clinton 48% (+2)
Trump 42% (+1)

Clinton 44% (-1)
Trump 40% (+1)
Johnson 7% (-1)
Stein 2%


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2016, 01:42:07 pm
Safe D


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 01:42:14 pm
Quote
The results are similar to a poll conducted two weeks earlier , indicating little to no shift in public opinion after the recent FBI announcement that it was reviewing a new set of emails linked to Clinton, said Chris Borick, director of the Muhlenberg College Institute of Public Opinion.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Horus on November 05, 2016, 01:42:23 pm
Solid.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 01:43:15 pm
PA was never going anywhere.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2016, 01:43:21 pm
Looks about right.

Hillary should win PA by between 1-5%.

It could also be relatively close in the end.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on November 05, 2016, 01:44:22 pm
Great news!


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on November 05, 2016, 01:46:29 pm
Great numbers for Clinton and Johnson!


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Xing on November 05, 2016, 01:47:19 pm
Clinton will be fine in PA. The freiwal is safe.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: The Other Castro on November 05, 2016, 01:49:23 pm
Looks about right.

Hillary should win PA by between 1-5%.

It could also be relatively close in the end.

Or relatively big in the end, closer to 10%.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2016, 01:49:38 pm
Compared with their last poll from late Oct., the margin is down from 6 to 4 in the four-way match.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: psychprofessor on November 05, 2016, 01:49:45 pm
Trump having a hard time breaking the low 40's in a lot of swing state polls


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: RalstonSucks on November 05, 2016, 01:50:26 pm
Link (http://www.mcall.com/g00/news/local/elections/mc-pa-poll-trump-clinton-toomey-mcginty-20161105-story.html).

Clinton 48%
Trump 42%

Clinton 44%
Trump 40%
Johnson 7%
Stein 2%

+4 4 way with a stated MOE of 5.5.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2016, 01:52:04 pm
Looks about right.

Hillary should win PA by between 1-5%.

It could also be relatively close in the end.

Or relatively big in the end, closer to 10%.

It is tender, he is sworn by oath to throw shade at Clinton.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2016, 01:52:30 pm
Honestly a sample size of just over 400 is shockingly small.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Tender Branson on November 05, 2016, 01:55:09 pm
Looks about right.

Hillary should win PA by between 1-5%.

It could also be relatively close in the end.

Or relatively big in the end, closer to 10%.

It is tender, he is sworn by oath to throw shade at Clinton.

No, I'm just cautious in my predictions because the polls are relatively close in most swing states and the polls were pretty crappy in 2014 and this year (primaries) and other countries.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: ProudModerate2 on November 05, 2016, 01:55:20 pm
Clinton will be fine in PA. The freiwal is safe.

I agree.
It's the New Hampshire brick in the wall, that has me worried.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Ozymandias on November 05, 2016, 01:57:12 pm
Senate: Toomey - 43, McGinty - 42


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2016, 01:58:08 pm
Looks about right.

Hillary should win PA by between 1-5%.

It could also be relatively close in the end.

Or relatively big in the end, closer to 10%.

It is tender, he is sworn by oath to throw shade at Clinton.

No, I'm just cautious in my predictions because the polls are relatively close in most swing states and the polls were pretty crappy in 2014 and this year (primaries) and other countries.

No you aren't.



Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 05, 2016, 01:59:26 pm
So McGinty is either running 7 points behind Clinton or even with her, depending on the poll.

Heads will roll in the polling industry this year.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on November 05, 2016, 02:08:24 pm
So McGinty is either running 7 points behind Clinton or even with her, depending on the poll.

Heads will roll in the polling industry this year.

5 points behind - use the four way numbers please.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Donnie on November 05, 2016, 02:16:57 pm
Clinton will win PA by 3-5%, but MI will be the shocker of the night.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Bern Notice on November 05, 2016, 02:19:14 pm
Clinton will win PA by 3-5%, but MI will be the shocker of the night.

There is no evidence for this.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 02:19:32 pm
4% point + Brexit = Trump +1 hehe


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 02:25:37 pm
So McGinty is either running 7 points behind Clinton or even with her, depending on the poll.

Heads will roll in the polling industry this year.

Most of the undecideds will go to McGinty. This is what happens when you don't push them.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Trends are real, and I f**king hate it on November 05, 2016, 02:26:27 pm
So McGinty is either running 7 points behind Clinton or even with her, depending on the poll.

Heads will roll in the polling industry this year.

5 points behind - use the four way numbers please.

...no?

Johnson and Stein will probably get half of their polling numbers by election day.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: john cage bubblegum on November 05, 2016, 02:27:17 pm
Clinton will be fine in PA. The freiwal is safe.

I agree.
It's the New Hampshire brick in the wall, that has me worried.

Fortunately NV will replace NH in the freiwal if need be.  Although I believe Clinton will win NH, recent polls there are a bit concerning.

The freiwal really is comforting in these final anxious days of the campaign.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: rafta_rafta on November 05, 2016, 02:50:11 pm
The friewal just got 5 feet higher


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Clamdick McClaw on November 05, 2016, 03:56:10 pm
Moo Linberg College underestimated Obama twice in their final poll by 4 and 3 points.  This is Safe for Hillary. 


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on November 05, 2016, 03:57:59 pm
So McGinty is either running 7 points behind Clinton or even with her, depending on the poll.

Heads will roll in the polling industry this year.

5 points behind - use the four way numbers please.

...no?

Johnson and Stein will probably get half of their polling numbers by election day.

Historically, what Third Parties get in the polls in the last few days is about what they get on election day, give or take a point.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Hammy on November 05, 2016, 04:04:38 pm
Looks about right.

Hillary should win PA by between 1-5%.

It could also be relatively close in the end.

Or relatively big in the end, closer to 10%.

It is tender, he is sworn by oath to throw shade at Clinton.

No, I'm just cautious in my predictions because the polls are relatively close in most swing states and the polls were pretty crappy in 2014 and this year (primaries) and other countries.

Once you throw a midterm year in as comparison with a presidential year, your whole argument is void.


Title: Re: PA-Muhlenberg College: Clinton +6/+4
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 06, 2016, 03:34:56 am
So McGinty is either running 7 points behind Clinton or even with her, depending on the poll.

Heads will roll in the polling industry this year.

5 points behind - use the four way numbers please.

...no?

Johnson and Stein will probably get half of their polling numbers by election day.

Historically, what Third Parties get in the polls in the last few days is about what they get on election day, give or take a point.

"give or take half of Stein's voting share"

Also, you're wrong. In 2008 Nader polled at 2.3% and Barr polled at 1.5%. They got 0.6% and 0.4%.