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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Castro on November 05, 2016, 07:04:48 pm



Title: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Castro on November 05, 2016, 07:04:48 pm
Trump - 46%
Clinton - 39%
Johnson - 6%
Stein - 1%

Poll conducted Nov 1-4.

Quote
At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump. Thatís a testament to her campaignís heavy focus on banking votes during Iowaís 40-day early vote period. But the data indicate it will not be enough to overcome Trump's support.

Voters who have already cast their ballots represent 34 percent of poll respondents. Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who havenít voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32.

Among other groups, meanwhile, Clintonís lead is significantly lower than the advantage she enjoys nationally. She holds just a 3-point lead among women, for example, a demographic Democrats have been banking on to reject Trump and lift Clinton and one that she leads by a dozen or more points in national polls.

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2016/11/05/iowa-poll-trump-opens-7-point-lead-over-clinton/93347134/?hootPostID=244ad51ae6af519614281eb8c6904b90


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: dspNY on November 05, 2016, 07:05:39 pm
Iowa's gone to the dark side


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 05, 2016, 07:05:48 pm
As expected


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: nirvanayoda on November 05, 2016, 07:05:57 pm
BOOM!


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 05, 2016, 07:06:01 pm
Good lord.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Lok on November 05, 2016, 07:06:27 pm
WELP!


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 05, 2016, 07:06:37 pm
Bye Iowa, hello North Carolina.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 05, 2016, 07:06:43 pm
PRAISE THE LORD!!


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ronnie on November 05, 2016, 07:06:46 pm
Holy moly guacamole.

Looks like Iowa is the new Missouri.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on November 05, 2016, 07:07:33 pm
Never expected her to win here.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2016, 07:07:39 pm
Iowa's gone to the dark side

Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: rafta_rafta on November 05, 2016, 07:07:47 pm
game over in Iowa


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 05, 2016, 07:07:57 pm
PRAISE THE LORD!!

Why?

We dont need and weren't counting on Iowa.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Horus on November 05, 2016, 07:08:19 pm
Expected.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 07:08:35 pm
Horrible state. Let's hope Democrats never hold their first primary/caucus there ever again.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Castro on November 05, 2016, 07:08:43 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Never Beto on November 05, 2016, 07:08:50 pm
Iowa's gone to the dark side

Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.


No. Philly suburbs are changing PA from a rust belt state to part of the solid northeast.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Devils30 on November 05, 2016, 07:09:00 pm
It won't be 7 but a 2-4% Trump win sounds right.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: QE on November 05, 2016, 07:09:44 pm
Damn.

Well, I will give Selzer the benefit of the doubt and say this is a good indicator that Iowa is probably Lean Trump now, but if she fudges up this result like she did with the Iowa Caucuses, then she'll take a major hit in credibility (in my book at least).  


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Snek! on November 05, 2016, 07:10:02 pm
Even at the height of the Clinton boom, he was up 4. This is bad but no surprises.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Oakvale on November 05, 2016, 07:10:07 pm
How stupid are the people of Iowa?!


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: calvinhobbesliker on November 05, 2016, 07:10:12 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

Consistent with the school poll where Iowa was the only blue state to go red.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 05, 2016, 07:10:39 pm
The sad truth about Iowa... http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/education/2015/05/10/iowa-student-brain-drain/26999519/


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 07:11:20 pm
Holy f**k

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Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: swf541 on November 05, 2016, 07:11:23 pm
She was way off in the primary lets see how off she is in the general. Trump should win iowa though


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: NRS11 on November 05, 2016, 07:12:13 pm
Somewhat surprised at +7, but not overly surprised.  Would have thought anywhere between 0-4% (maybe 5%) would be in the ballpark.

I guess women in Iowa don't care much about Trump's comments.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2016, 07:13:16 pm
Iowa's gone to the dark side

Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.


No. Philly suburbs are changing PA from a rust belt state to part of the solid northeast.

PA won't be Trump+7. But if IA can swing from Obama+6 to Trump+7, then PA can swing half as much, which will be enough for a Trump+1 to Trump+2 win.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Associate Justice PiT on November 05, 2016, 07:14:08 pm
     The swing/trend maps for this election will be fascinating.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 05, 2016, 07:15:18 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

That's strange or at least worth analyzing.

P.S. For all those talking about Clinton campaigning in Michigan, Trump will campaign in Iowa tomorrow.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Hammy on November 05, 2016, 07:15:41 pm
Can we finally stop pretending now that Clinton ever had a chance here?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 07:15:58 pm
IA is totally gone for HRC. Explains interest in MI, MN, WI. Thankfully, all of those have better demos for Clinton than IA does. Could FL/NV end up being the real blue wall?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on November 05, 2016, 07:17:25 pm
I doubt it'll be this lopsided (though it was in 2014), but yeah, looks like Iowa really has gone full-on Arkansas. Oh well, it's a small loss, and it's worth gains in places like NC and FL (and eventually, AZ and GA).


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: JerryArkansas on November 05, 2016, 07:17:50 pm
Hope this means Iowa never goes first again.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Castro on November 05, 2016, 07:19:15 pm
The Trump-Cruz margin in their final caucus poll was off by more than 8 points, so it's possible she doesn't have as good a read on Iowa anymore. That said, it was a caucus and much harder to predict than a general election race. Then again, one could argue Trump underpeformed so much in Iowa because of his lack of groundgame, which could be present in the general election as well. Bottom line, I'm not going to count on this poll being wrong, and I'm chalking this up to a Trump win in my prediction.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 07:20:17 pm
We shouldn't be primary unskewing in here. Leave that for when she is actually wrong after.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ozymandias on November 05, 2016, 07:20:46 pm
Despite the bad overall numbers, Clinton continues to dominate the early vote:

Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 53
Trump - 31

(Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who havenít voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32").


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 05, 2016, 07:20:51 pm
It won't be 7 but a 2-4% Trump win sounds right.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Classic Conservative on November 05, 2016, 07:20:58 pm
Hopefully Maine is next


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 07:22:24 pm
Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Seriously? on November 05, 2016, 07:22:32 pm
Iowa clearly wants to Make America Great Again per the Gold Standard in Iowa polling.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Young Conservative on November 05, 2016, 07:23:50 pm
God Bless Iowa! I hope they remain in the Republican column for future elections.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: 🌈Rainbow Jihad on November 05, 2016, 07:24:36 pm
Fcking morons.

Apparently when you insult the people of a state, they want to vote for you more.  So fck Iowa and fck Ohio, too.

Fck America.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Castro on November 05, 2016, 07:24:44 pm
God Bless Iowa! I hope they remain in the Republican column for future elections.

I'll gladly trade Iowa for North Carolina any day.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2016, 07:25:05 pm
Iowans are embarrassing themselves.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Donnie on November 05, 2016, 07:25:48 pm
Don't want to tell .............5%.

So, it can be Trump by 8-9% not 7%.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: jaichind on November 05, 2016, 07:26:03 pm
If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 07:26:21 pm
It won't be 7 but a 2-4% Trump win sounds right.

I think Selzer is overestimating Trump support again, but yeah:

Horrible state. Let's hope Democrats never hold their first primary/caucus there ever again.

Also it'd be pretty dumb to try to extrapolate the status of other midwestern states based off of Iowa.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: amdcpus on November 05, 2016, 07:26:30 pm
Despite the bad overall numbers, Clinton continues to dominate the early vote:

Of the 34% (272/800) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 53
Trump - 31

(Derived from "At first glance, the early vote offers a bright spot for Clinton, where she enjoys a 22-point advantage over Trump" and "Among the remaining two-thirds of respondents who havenít voted but plan to, Trump leads by 21 percentage points, 53-32").

Democrats always destroy Republicans in Iowa during early voting. This is a lower margin for them and less Democrats have voted in Iowa since 2012 so this is quite bad for Clinton.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Hammy on November 05, 2016, 07:27:12 pm
Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2016, 07:28:29 pm
Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

Let them dream.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2016, 07:28:38 pm
Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Oakvale on November 05, 2016, 07:29:12 pm
Fcking morons.

Apparently when you insult the people of a state, they want to vote for you more.  So fck Iowa and fck Ohio, too.

Fck America.

Yes, it's called negging. The best way to understand the Trump campaign is to read MRA/pickup artist blogs.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 07:30:01 pm
If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.

Yeah. It is why that poll (if correct) is GREAT news for Donald J Trump.

Iowa for Trump = White working class for Trump. = Mid- and somewhat Northwest are in play.

Selzer uses voter file. Something is going on...


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 05, 2016, 07:31:07 pm
Bye, Iowa.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Hammy on November 05, 2016, 07:31:18 pm
Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.


Iowa is not an indicator of any of those four states--the demographics are completely different. Iowa has more in common with Kansas than it does PA/WI/MN/MN. I will agree that Ohio has been gone for some time, but again it's starting to have more in common with Indiana than Pennsylvania as populations change.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Horus on November 05, 2016, 07:32:29 pm
Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

We don't know that. If this Iowa result is right, then theu are in play along with Pennsylvania, while Ohio is safe Trump.


Iowa is not an indicator of any of those four states--the demographics are completely different. Iowa has more in common with Kansas than it does PA/WI/MN/MN.

Not to mention the farm crisis which left a generation of Iowans unnaturally Democratic. The state is just going back to normal.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 05, 2016, 07:34:15 pm
If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.

Yeah. It is why that poll (if correct) is GREAT news for Donald J Trump.

Iowa for Trump = White working class for Trump. = Mid- and somewhat Northwest are in play.

Selzer uses voter file. Something is going on...

That's not what that means. In the poll, Selzer points out enthusiasm for Hillary is low amongst Bernie supporters and she thinks they're not going to turn out. Hillary is just a bad fit.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: alomas on November 05, 2016, 07:34:37 pm
Being down seven can be the best news from this poll for Clinton. She is definitely more vulnerable than Obama in Midwest, especially Michigan and Pennsylvania. But on the other hand she may get off the hook and Iowa can be 2012's Indiana and Ohio 2012's NC. It gives some hope.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2016, 07:35:17 pm
To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Mehmentum on November 05, 2016, 07:35:38 pm
Iowa's gone to the dark side

Yes. But, if true, this means that OH and PA are going Iowa's way for sure and MI is following closely.

The factors at work in Iowa are unique to the state. 
The sad truth about Iowa... http://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/education/2015/05/10/iowa-student-brain-drain/26999519/


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 07:36:35 pm
To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We just did from Marquette and PPP showing Clinton up 6 and 7 respectively. Again, Iowa is more like the Great Plains than it is the Midwest.

Anyone have crosstabs yet?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Arch on November 05, 2016, 07:37:03 pm
Bye, Iowa.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 05, 2016, 07:37:59 pm
To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We had a quality poll from Marquette.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Never Beto on November 05, 2016, 07:38:13 pm
To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We just had two quality polls from WI, you just don't like the results.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Bismarck on November 05, 2016, 07:39:26 pm
Yes Iowa is now republican because all the smart people left in four years. Atlas is becoming unbearable.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: alomas on November 05, 2016, 07:40:05 pm
I hope Trump won't go to Iowa just to say they are leading there "big league" (now "bigly", he is not using that word, look at his twitter).


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 07:40:09 pm
I'm just leaving it here...
Midwest is about 0.8-0.85 correlation. HUUUUUGE.
Northeast is NH 0.7, Maine 0.63, PA is just 0.56

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Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Marokai Backbeat on November 05, 2016, 07:40:21 pm
Yes Iowa is now republican because all the smart people left in four years. Atlas is becoming unbearable.

So you deny uneducated voters are a huge part of the Trump support-base, do you?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on November 05, 2016, 07:41:59 pm
People who assume that the fact that Trump is doing well in Iowa must mean he's also doing well in in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan are oversimplifying matters. First of all, polls do not suggest he's doing well in those states (except for a few odd Michigan polls). More importantly, these states are not at all identical to Iowa. They all have a much higher percentage of urban and suburban voters, a demographic that Trump struggles enormously with. Wisconsin and Michigan also have a higher percentage of black voters than Iowa. Not to mention that Minnesota and Wisconsin in particular have more college educated voters than Iowa.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2016, 07:42:17 pm
To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We just did from Marquette and PPP showing Clinton up 6 and 7 respectively. Again, Iowa is more like the Great Plains than it is the Midwest.

Anyone have crosstabs yet?

PPP poll is for a left wing advocacy group, so it can't be trusted.
Marquette poll is a bit old.

I don't think Wisconsin can be won because of same day registration and Dem ground game.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: dspNY on November 05, 2016, 07:42:49 pm
To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


Marquette: Clinton 46, Trump 40


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Hammy on November 05, 2016, 07:43:21 pm
I'm just leaving it here...
Midwest is about 0.8-0.85 correlation. HUUUUUGE.
Northeast is NH 0.7, Maine 0.63, PA is just 0.56

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Notice Minnesota is the biggest correlating state though...


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Never Beto on November 05, 2016, 07:44:15 pm
To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


We just did from Marquette and PPP showing Clinton up 6 and 7 respectively. Again, Iowa is more like the Great Plains than it is the Midwest.

Anyone have crosstabs yet?

PPP poll is for a left wing advocacy group, so it can't be trusted.
Marquette poll is a bit old.

I don't think Wisconsin can be won because of same day registration and Dem ground game.


Yes it can be trusted. PPP wouldn't be it's reputation on the line like that if they didn't trust the results. They are being payed for hundreds of private polls, they lose money if their reputation goes into the trash.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Kempros on November 05, 2016, 07:44:24 pm
A one party system will be the end of our country. That means that states will have to trend R not just D.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: alomas on November 05, 2016, 07:45:17 pm
So we probably know why Bill Clinton is coming to Michigan.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: HokeyDood on November 05, 2016, 07:45:52 pm
Bye, Iowa.  Hello states that matter. 


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Arch on November 05, 2016, 07:46:12 pm
To be sure if this is an indicator of a Trump swing in the mid west, we need a quality poll from Wisconsin.


Marquette: Clinton 46, Trump 40

It's okay. Let them blind themselves if it makes them feel better. Iowa was already going anyways.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 07:46:42 pm
Notice Minnesota is the biggest correlating state though...
?
OH, WI an MI are.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 05, 2016, 07:49:19 pm
I do take issue with Selzer's likely voter model which seems to help Trump so I do think she's got the margin wrong.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: henster on November 05, 2016, 07:50:06 pm
I don't think IA is gone, Ds have ran pretty crappy candidates lately Braley now Clinton who had no appeal there. If Harkin ran for re-election he would've won easily if Biden were the nominee IA would be lean D.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: HokeyDood on November 05, 2016, 07:50:46 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 05, 2016, 07:51:29 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.

Disgusting new low.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Donnie on November 05, 2016, 07:51:38 pm
Trump is dominating with White working class voters, his trade rhetoric is music to blue collar workers ears in midwestern states.

Amen.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Wolverine22 on November 05, 2016, 07:53:03 pm
Motherf***er. I thought Iowa was better than that. That state and its voters should be ashamed.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 05, 2016, 07:53:33 pm
That's ridiculous.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Arch on November 05, 2016, 07:54:09 pm
-Trump ahead in IA as it has been the case for months.-

Trump Supporters: SEE GUYS!? WI, MN, MI, PA ARE IN PLAY NOW. Good grief.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 05, 2016, 07:55:10 pm
So we probably know why Bill Clinton is coming to Michigan.

That or... you know, election day turnout matters. But wha'evs.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 05, 2016, 07:55:24 pm
FWIW, Trump has cancelled his Wisconsin event.
I guess that's because it's safe R now.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: HokeyDood on November 05, 2016, 07:56:49 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.

Disgusting new low.

Grow a pair.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Bernie 2020 on November 05, 2016, 07:57:25 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.
Sounds like someone has the deplorable fever!


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Yank2133 on November 05, 2016, 07:58:31 pm
-Trump ahead in IA as it has been the case for months.-

Trump Supporters: SEE GUYS!? WI, MN, MI, PA ARE IN PLAY NOW. Good grief.

Funny thing is this argument works both ways. I guess Iowa is still in play due to Clinton being up in WI, MN, MI, and PA. 


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: indietraveler on November 05, 2016, 07:59:24 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.

This is a pretty gross comment--and I'm someone who is typically democrat.

Anyways, this isn't too shocking, part of it is Clinton just isn't a good fit for this state. I don't buy into the whole "Iowa is now so far right" theory. Would we be seeing this same result if it was Biden, Sanders..hell, even Warren running against Trump? Hillary is just really not liked here.

Still holding out hope here, I always said if it was close I thought the tie would go to Clinton, but +7 is a solid lead for Trump.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 05, 2016, 08:01:22 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.

Disgusting new low.
Agreed. Iowa has been stagnating, and younger, educated people have been leaving the state, but calling them "inbred" is just totally out of line. Leave that kind of rhetoric to Trump.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: ReapSow on November 05, 2016, 08:02:01 pm
Trump sheep excited about Iowa? That's when you know they're drowning and gasping for air.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: morgieb on November 05, 2016, 08:03:10 pm
HOW


STUPID



ARE


THE


PEOPLE


OF






IOWA?????!!!????


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 08:05:13 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.

Disgusting new low.

Grow a pair.
Do you love Akon by the way? I do.

My favorite chorus from Akon - Ghetto https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2nO86ZTs8I

Quote
Cause thats the life when ur
Living in the (ghetto)and
Eating in the (ghetto)or
Sleeping in the (ghetto) (ghetto)
Cause thats the life when ur
Living in the (ghetto)and
Eating in the (ghetto)or
Sleeping in the (ghetto, ghetto, ghetto)

It reminds me of something. I of course mean Iowa. Iowa is like a ghetto, right?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: 🌈Rainbow Jihad on November 05, 2016, 08:08:08 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.

Disgusting new low.

#triggered

(I don't particularly care for HD's comments, but the political correctness on this site goes too far imo)


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: RalstonSucks on November 05, 2016, 08:09:31 pm
you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 05, 2016, 08:10:06 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Arch on November 05, 2016, 08:10:40 pm
you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

About 10 points behind. Don't worry. It'll be ultra close :)


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 08:11:42 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 05, 2016, 08:12:45 pm
His lead among independents is identical to statewide? That looks yuuuuugely suspect. Perhaps Iowa's Westvirginification isn't quite complete yet... then again I'm not one to unskew, but I'd like to know this pollster's methodology.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: wifikitten on November 05, 2016, 08:13:00 pm
I'm perfectly fine with trading Iowa for North Carolina. North Carolina has a yuge future of growth and Iowa is just "there" in the future.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 05, 2016, 08:16:08 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: 🌈Rainbow Jihad on November 05, 2016, 08:16:32 pm
you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Using this logic, Trump being under 50 in Utah points to a 40+ state win for Hillary.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Storebought on November 05, 2016, 08:16:45 pm
I was right to say that Clinton should have pulled out of this state at least a week ago.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Snek! on November 05, 2016, 08:16:54 pm
Oddly, this increased Hillary's chances of winning in 538.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 05, 2016, 08:18:40 pm
you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Using this logic, Trump up six in Utah points to a 40+ state win for Hillary.
Yeah... the only other state outside her reach would be Wyoming, LOL. #BattlegroundWestVirginia


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 05, 2016, 08:18:55 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.

Uh, wasn't he just talking about voters under age 35?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 05, 2016, 08:20:45 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.

Uh, wasn't he just talking about voters under age 35?

Oh, yep. I replied to LBP without reading the original post. 


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Snek! on November 05, 2016, 08:21:54 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.

Disgusting new low.

Grow a pair.
Do you love Akon by the way? I do.

My favorite chorus from Akon - Ghetto https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o2nO86ZTs8I

Quote
Cause thats the life when ur
Living in the (ghetto)and
Eating in the (ghetto)or
Sleeping in the (ghetto) (ghetto)
Cause thats the life when ur
Living in the (ghetto)and
Eating in the (ghetto)or
Sleeping in the (ghetto, ghetto, ghetto)

It reminds me of something. I of course mean Iowa. Iowa is like a ghetto, right?
They have a poverty and drug problem...


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: #GravelGang on November 05, 2016, 08:22:54 pm
Can people stop bashing Iowa as if everyone in the state supports Trump and is some inbred hick? I'm not happy about these polling results either and am quite disappointed in the majority of Iowans, but come on...

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now on Atlas. The White working class swinging hard for Trump is a very real phenomenon. But so too is the college educated White and minority vote swinging hard for Clinton. Mark my words, this is the future dynamic of our emerging political party system. Don't be entirely surprised if all Midwestern states end up more Trump friendly than expected (I still highly doubt he could win IL, MI, MN, or WI). Also expect him to perform incredibly well in Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro, in Upstate New York, rural New Hampshire, and in Northern Maine. At the same time, Clinton should perform well in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The only thing saving Pennsylvania is its southeastern part belonging to the Northeast Megalopolis.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Hammy on November 05, 2016, 08:33:39 pm
you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

Zero correlation.

Oddly, this increased Hillary's chances of winning in 538.

I quit following 538's "analysis" a long time ago--there's so little sense to any of it.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 08:40:05 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

CNN shows the 2012 Iowa exit polls at 33 R, 33 D, 34 I.

Edit: Could just be dems identifying as independents, still wouldnt cause that much of a change.

Uh, wasn't he just talking about voters under age 35?

Oh, yep. I replied to LBP without reading the original post. 

Ouch. I missed this part...


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 08:42:12 pm
Can people stop bashing Iowa as if everyone in the state supports Trump and is some inbred hick? I'm not happy about these polling results either and am quite disappointed in the majority of Iowans, but come on...

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now on Atlas. The White working class swinging hard for Trump is a very real phenomenon. But so too is the college educated White and minority vote swinging hard for Clinton. Mark my words, this is the future dynamic of our emerging political party system. Don't be entirely surprised if all Midwestern states end up more Trump friendly than expected (I still highly doubt he could win IL, MI, MN, or WI). Also expect him to perform incredibly well in Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro, in Upstate New York, rural New Hampshire, and in Northern Maine. At the same time, Clinton should perform well in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The only thing saving Pennsylvania is its southeastern part belonging to the Northeast Megalopolis.

That's why early voting statistics might backfire a bit...


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2016, 08:42:58 pm
i'm just wondering why he didn't go on calling every other state stupid considering how successful he's been in this state.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: SunSt0rm on November 05, 2016, 08:44:51 pm
Wow, this is much more than I expected. I have a feeling that the complete midwestern is more closed than everyone realize. No wonder Clinton and Obama are going to Michigan on Monday


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 05, 2016, 08:50:47 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

I don't think you understand how polling works: it's possible for the registered share of those under the age of 35 to look very different than the sample contained in this poll. As far as I know, young Iowans are more Democratic than what is suggested here. Maybe their turnout will be awful but the GOP does not have a 7 point registration lead among young Iowans...


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: SunSt0rm on November 05, 2016, 08:51:54 pm
Harry Enten already saw some of it in 2014

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/something-funny-happened-in-iowa-and-it-may-hurt-democrats-in-2016/


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 05, 2016, 08:53:51 pm
Quote
The poll shows younger voters are less likely to identify as Democrats, something that stands in contrast to the last two elections.  The youth vote was the backbone of the Obama coalition in Iowa, and he won by a large margin among voters under age 35 in 2008. The final Iowa poll ahead of the 2008 election showed 33 percent of those under age 35 identified as Democrats, 26 percent as Republicans, and 38 percent as independents. In this poll, 36 percent identify as independent, 32 percent Republican and just 25 percent Democratic.

I realize that it's heresy to question Selzer but this sample seems very, very off.

They use voter file, so the shares of registred R/D/I should be correct.

I don't think you understand how polling works: it's possible for the registered share of those under the age of 35 to look very different than the sample contained in this poll. As far as I know, young Iowans are more Democratic than what is suggested here. Maybe their turnout will be awful but the GOP does not have a 7 point registration lead among young Iowans...
As I alreade wrote, I missed part about "under 35".

But in theory, since they have all the statics (even how many registred R/D/I in each age group, gender and so on), they could reweight for it as well. But I don't think that it possible with such a small sample.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 05, 2016, 08:54:20 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 05, 2016, 08:55:04 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 05, 2016, 08:55:31 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.
Stop


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 05, 2016, 08:57:53 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: komodozer on November 05, 2016, 08:57:58 pm
All those "hot" Midwestern farmers' daughters (and sons, if you swing that way)...have all gotten bachelors' degrees.

And they all moved here to DC, it seems.  


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 05, 2016, 08:58:05 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.

lmao


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: #TheShadowyAbyss on November 05, 2016, 08:58:17 pm
So we can bash Iowa now for being a Trump state? I guess we through out civility as well?

Anyways, we can afford to lose Iowa to Trump in exchange for flipping NC back


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 05, 2016, 09:01:00 pm
My grandpa helped renovate this:
(
Img
)

I'm pretty connected to Iowa whether I like it or not. Half of the buildings in my father's home town were built by my grandpa. I feel pretty entitled to hate my family's state for betraying me and voting for some crypto-fascist who said very hateful things about me and my mother. Idaho will do the same but, alas, Idaho has always treated me this way. Iowa doing this is dark. What a dumb state! I hope Clinton hits it hard and takes away their precious corn syrup and trashcan ethanol subsidies. Those lil rent-seeking farmers need to be punished for being brats.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: 🌈Rainbow Jihad on November 05, 2016, 09:01:30 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

Iowa literally picks all its politicians based on how "personable" they are.  Whoever wins the beer contest wins Iowa.  It's one of the worst swing states for that reason alone.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: HokeyDood on November 05, 2016, 09:04:06 pm
Why have you changed your post, DFB?  You would think Trumpies would embrace the harsh reality of these dumb Iowan cornheads considering their love of Mr. Anti-PC himself.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Bismarck on November 05, 2016, 09:06:11 pm
We're the working class whites who voted for Obama in 2012 dumb? Or did they become dumb sometime in the past four years?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 05, 2016, 09:11:53 pm
ITT: People making ridiculous stereotypes about another group of people and feeling superior in the process.

Keep it up guys, you're really showing our moral superiority here.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Oakvale on November 05, 2016, 09:12:04 pm
Good to see DFB speaking some truth instead of the usual coddling of simpletons and racists by the "cuck left".


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 05, 2016, 09:13:26 pm
We're the working class whites who voted for Obama in 2012 dumb? Or did they become dumb sometime in the past four years?

They became dumb after 2014. Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. :)


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: 🌈Rainbow Jihad on November 05, 2016, 09:15:39 pm
Good to see DFB speaking some truth instead of the usual coddling of simpletons and racists by the "cuck left".

The cuck-left really is the worst, isn't it?  "Nice guy ff"-ism is the most destructive force in politics, more so than what Trump's given us.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 09:18:51 pm
yeah DFB stop being so mean to the racists! we need to sympathize with them :'(


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Snek! on November 05, 2016, 09:19:38 pm
Do you think many of the farmers in Iowa will come under the control of and be bounded by some Lords and Barons?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 09:20:27 pm
Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. :)

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Snek! on November 05, 2016, 09:23:39 pm
Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. :)

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.

(
Img
)
The People's Lord


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: mencken on November 05, 2016, 09:25:00 pm
So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2016, 09:25:26 pm
Virginia on the other hand turned from a gay-bashin' redneck hellhole with awful hawkish GWB fans in NoVA into an enlightened educated cosmopolitian state in 2006. :)

If you lived here, you'd know that's pretty much exactly what happened. No need to be facetious about Virginia's evolution since the 90s.

Anyways, yes, the white working class that's gonna vote Obama/Trump probably also fell for Dubya's "charisma" and dreamed about having a beer with him.

Obama/Trump vote is gonna be massive.
That's the basis of Trump's impending victory.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Arch on November 05, 2016, 09:26:01 pm
So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2016, 09:27:04 pm
So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: NOVA Green on November 05, 2016, 09:27:51 pm
Ok... this polling thread has once again descended into the cesspool with many of the comments here.

All being said, isn't the Des Moines Register poll run by Seltzer & Co considered to be the "Gold Standard" of Iowa polling similar to Marquette in Wisconsin?

I think everyone here can agree, it looks like Trump will likely win Iowa, regardless of the final margins, and EV numbers seem to indicate a drop-off in Democratic enthusiasm from the Obama era, where he did quite well as a Mid-West Democrat in a state where George Jr. won in 2004.

It will be interesting to watch trends in 2020 if Republicans nominate a candidate that is not a protectionist on trade related issues, and is an interventionist on foreign policy issues, to see if Iowa swings back towards the Democratic Party.

Iowa voters are frequently dovish on foreign policy and protectionist on economic policy, and Clinton's brand going back to 2008 doesn't resonate the same way that Obama's has, and Trump has certainly muddied the waters of the "traditional Republican" policies on these overall attitudes.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 05, 2016, 09:29:33 pm
So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Would you believe it if they told you in 2008 that Virginia will vote 10 points to the left of West Virginia?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Arch on November 05, 2016, 09:29:59 pm
So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ljube on November 05, 2016, 09:30:53 pm
So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.

Which numbers?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Maxwell on November 05, 2016, 09:31:41 pm
So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Iowa and Wisconsin really aren't that alike anymore.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Arch on November 05, 2016, 09:34:41 pm
So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

C. IA has been showing swing signs since 2014, and it has been consistently polling almost in the double-digits behind WI the entire cycle.

That's unlikely and you know it.
Furthermore, Marquette found the Senate race to be D+1.


Unlikely? Look at the numbers and get back to me. I'm not talking about possibilities here. It is what it is.

Which numbers?


Here. I'll take your hand:

IA:
RCP Average   Trump +3.0
Trump +7
Trump +3
Clinton +1
Tie
Trump +4
Tie
Trump +7
Trump +8
Trump +5

WI:
RCP Average   Clinton +5.5
Clinton +6
Clinton +4
Clinton +6
Clinton +6
Clinton +5
Clinton +7
Clinton +8
Clinton +7


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: mencken on November 05, 2016, 09:36:50 pm
So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Would you believe it if they told you in 2008 that Virginia will vote 20 10 points to the left of West Virginia?

1996: West Virginia: Clinton +15; Virginia: Dole +2 (Difference: -17)
2000: West Virginia: Bush +6; Virginia: Bush +8 (Difference: -2)
2004: West Virginia: Bush +13; Virginia: Bush +8 (Difference: 5)

Retrospectively, the correlation between the Virginias seems to have been pretty weak. On the other hand, Iowa and Wisconsin have voted pretty much in sync since 1984. While a break in that trend is hardly unprecedented, it should be evaluated within that context.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 05, 2016, 09:37:34 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa for being dumb as rocks. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

For the record, my late great-uncle was a corn farmer in Iowa who inherited the Hogan family farm and he sent me some books on the Civil War once so some of them are nice, I guess.

lmao
I don't know what to say.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Brittain33 on November 05, 2016, 09:50:59 pm
The Midwest is voting like it's 2004 while the rest of the country votes like it's 2008, except for Arizona and Texas which are voting like it's 2024.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: #GravelGang on November 05, 2016, 09:51:07 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 05, 2016, 09:56:02 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.

My Dad is literally an Iowan and when I called him to tell me about this poll, his reaction was to say "jesus, Iowans are stupid". This might shock you but many Iowans love to mock farmers and the really boorish people in towns. Both Grassley and Ernst are very stupid people who are also rock-ribbed Republicans; Ernst is a knock-off of Palin. Iowans voted for Ernst because Brock Brantley gravely insulted farmers by pointing out that chickens emit nasty smells that hurt his property values, which is a fair criticism of people who raise chickens in residential areas! Farmers took this as an insult and voted for the woman who knows about castrating hogs but knows nothing about anything else.

So yeah, uh, I don't feel like being partial to Iowans. They're not the sharpest tools in the shed. I'm not saying all Iowans are like this btw. I'm particularly singling out farmers and, even more specifically, farmers from southern Iowa. Have you heard the joke about southern Iowa? "If southern Iowa was added to Missouri, both Missouri and Iowa would have higher IQ levels." Not smart!

edit: for the record, my Dad is a carpenter. You can call me many things but I'm not an "elitist". I merely have a deep distaste for moronic suckers who can be conned this easily by a fraudster. Considering that farmers tend to be rather affluent, I'm not sure how this embodies any sort of class-based elitism or whatever. I'm making fun of simpletons for being ignorant of the world; I'm not making fun of working class people. Farmers are not union men at a John Deere plant. I can respect the latter for toying with Trump. The former has no excuse and no reason to feel resentment at a government that has made sure that they live "high on the hog". They're landlords and they're sucking in rents from the masses.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Figueira on November 05, 2016, 09:58:42 pm
If Trump does win Iowa, I don't think this is a permanent shift unless the Trump wing ends up dominating the Republican Party.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: #GravelGang on November 05, 2016, 10:02:24 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.

My Dad is literally an Iowan and when I called him to tell me about this poll, his reaction was to say "wow, Iowans are really dumb". Both Grassley and Ernst are very stupid people who are also rock-ribbed Republicans; Ernst is a knock-off of Palin. Iowans voted for Ernst because Brock Brantley gravely insulted farmers by pointing out that chickens emit nasty smells that hurt his property values, which is a fair criticism of people who raise chickens in residential areas! Farmers took this as an insult and voted for the woman who knows about castrating hogs but knows nothing about anything else.

So yeah, uh, I don't feel like being partial to Iowans. They're not the sharpest tools in the shed. I'm not saying all Iowans are like this btw. I'm particularly singling out farmers and, even more specifically, farmers from southern Iowa. Have you heard the joke about southern Iowa? "If southern Iowa was added to Missouri, both Missouri and Iowa would have higher IQ levels." Not smart!

Might lower Democratic enthusiasm be the major problem for Clinton in the state, especially in the driftless area? I'd guess that there'll be high turnout for Trump in the south and west of the state along with low turnout for Clinton in the north and east. I just can't fathom how a state could vote so strongly for Obama then so strongly for Trump. There can't be that many crossover voters.

Edit: I'm not going to judge whether you're elitist or not, that's neither my place nor within my capacity. However, you did come across as that in your post. Plus, it'd take more than Southern Iowa farmers to give Trump a commanding victory in the state. So something else is going on there that can't be explained through reference to "ignorant" farmers.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 05, 2016, 10:06:55 pm
My Dad is from Iowa so I feel okay saying this: Iowa farmers are, uh, very simple people who are mocked by townies in Iowa. They, not the "white working class", are the ones moving from Obama to Trump. Notice how well Obama did in southern Iowa. This is a region filled with smallholders who are kept afloat by subsidies and who have been hit hard by a downturn in commodity prices. This is where the swing will come from.

It's widely known that farmers in Iowa are a class that's pretty dumb. Have you heard an Iowan speak? They sound like their brain has been soaked in corn syrup.

oh ffs, enough of this

Literally half of my family (the white side) is from Iowa. There's a reason why literally 0 of them live in Iowa now: it is a state filled with simple-minded fools.

The only one who comes across as the simple minded fool here is you. Iowa is the state which helped catapult an African American Democrat named Barack Hussein Obama to the White House, gave him two decisive victories, and provided a Socialist Brooklyn Jew a virtual tie with a former Secretary of State, First Lady, and Senator. Iowa was one of the first states to legalize gay marriage and has a long history of progressive policies, such as providing early rights to women and abolition of miscegenation laws. I don't know exactly what's causing Iowa to trend so hard for Trump and, yes, it's incredibly disappointing, but you and so many other Democrats here outright attacking Iowans is completely disgusting.

My Dad is literally an Iowan and when I called him to tell me about this poll, his reaction was to say "wow, Iowans are really dumb". Both Grassley and Ernst are very stupid people who are also rock-ribbed Republicans; Ernst is a knock-off of Palin. Iowans voted for Ernst because Brock Brantley gravely insulted farmers by pointing out that chickens emit nasty smells that hurt his property values, which is a fair criticism of people who raise chickens in residential areas! Farmers took this as an insult and voted for the woman who knows about castrating hogs but knows nothing about anything else.

So yeah, uh, I don't feel like being partial to Iowans. They're not the sharpest tools in the shed. I'm not saying all Iowans are like this btw. I'm particularly singling out farmers and, even more specifically, farmers from southern Iowa. Have you heard the joke about southern Iowa? "If southern Iowa was added to Missouri, both Missouri and Iowa would have higher IQ levels." Not smart!

Might lower Democratic enthusiasm be the major problem for Clinton in the state, especially in the driftless area? I'd guess that there'll be high turnout for Trump in the south and west of the state along with low turnout for Clinton in the north and east. I just can't fathom how a state could vote so strongly for Obama then so strongly for Trump. There can't be that many crossover voters.

Compare the voting patterns of southern Iowa with the voting patterns of their brethren across the border with Missouri. This explains why Iowa will swing so sharply towards Trump. For decades rural Iowans have been usually supportive of the Democratic Party compared to their peers and a lot of this can be explained by the farm crisis. It makes sense that they'd snap back to their usual pattern as commodity prices have plunged.

I would not be shocked if working class Iowans swing towards Trump or if they turnout at lower rates but that's not where the swing will be: look to southern Iowa in places like Union County.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 05, 2016, 10:14:43 pm
does anyone really doubt that trump's iowa lead is more like +4 than +7?

ofc maybe IA is the one REAAAAAAALLY low turnout state.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2016, 10:16:52 pm
Selzer is going to be discredited completely this year.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: NV less likely to flip than FL on November 05, 2016, 10:20:45 pm
I don't think it's implausible at all that there could be a wide gap between Iowa and Wisconsin this year. There are plenty of differences between the two.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on November 05, 2016, 10:44:41 pm
Whatever can be said about this poll this idea that farmers are working class is... embarrassing.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 05, 2016, 10:54:14 pm
Whatever can be said about this poll this idea that farmers are working class is... embarrassing.

This entire thread is embarrassing.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: North Fulton Democrat on November 05, 2016, 10:56:50 pm
Iowa has been the one state where the Republican establishment went fully for Trump--and it is paying off for him.

But I think Iowa is now returning to its Republican form and is becoming the next Missouri.  Remember, this is a state that has only been left of the mean since 1984.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: indietraveler on November 05, 2016, 11:16:44 pm
The swing is going to be in IA-1 if the Blum/Vernon race is actually as close as people think it is. This has been a safe D district in presidential years.

It's really the NW part of the state that is embarrassing...Steve King anyone?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 11:45:30 pm
Whatever can be said about this poll this idea that farmers are working class is... embarrassing.

Apparently the definition of "working class" is white men who don't have college degrees these days.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 05, 2016, 11:52:43 pm
Whatever can be said about this poll this idea that farmers are working class is... embarrassing.

Apparently the definition of "working class" is white men who don't have college degrees these days.

Bill Gates, working class hero. ::)


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: IceSpear on November 06, 2016, 04:05:16 am
Well, can Dems at least stop pandering to their stupid corn subsidies now?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: BlueSwan on November 06, 2016, 04:43:09 am
How stupid are the people of Iowa?!


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: President Johnson on November 06, 2016, 05:19:27 am
What to expect from a state that elects Governor Braindead several times?


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: pbrower2a on November 06, 2016, 05:34:11 am
Urban minority voters of course see Donald Trump as a threat or at least an anathema. If one rents one sees Donald Trump as the plutocrat who draws the rental payments, someone who get easy money for owning scarce property that allows one to live in the proximity of one's job. If one is a tenant in a giant city Donald Trump reminds you of someone who disposes of much of your personal income. You may see a 'property management company' that seems to simply collect an ever-increasing rental as an exploiter, and Donald Trump as a manifestation of such.

But what if you own your own farm or your own abode (however humble) or have an employer supplying housing to you (possible for a farm laborer)? Someone like Donald Trump is not the problem as an economic drain.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: ‼realJohnEwards‼ on November 06, 2016, 05:37:58 am
What the hell happened to this thread? ???


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Trapsy on November 06, 2016, 07:34:17 am
LOLIOWA


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Bismarck on November 06, 2016, 09:27:13 am
What the hell happened to this thread? ???

The state is trending republican so dems have to reassure themselves by saying Iowans are dumb Hicks.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Kalimantan on November 06, 2016, 01:18:37 pm
What the hell happened to this thread? ???

The state is trending republican so dems have to reassure themselves by saying Iowans are dumb Hicks.

No, we say that Republicans are dumb Hicks, and clearly there are more of them in Iowa than before :)


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 06, 2016, 01:24:26 pm
not "dumb hicks" but not representative of the whole nation.

the right kind of pub could have invaded IA for some time.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: DavidB. on November 06, 2016, 04:59:10 pm
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Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Devout Centrist on November 06, 2016, 05:02:11 pm
I trust Selzer. Iowa is likely R.

If they're wrong though, I'm really shocked at just how quick they've fallen from grace.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 06, 2016, 06:24:33 pm
I expect Trump to win, but I don't expect it to be by that much.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: psychprofessor on November 06, 2016, 06:28:28 pm
Whatever can be said about this poll this idea that farmers are working class is... embarrassing.

Apparently the definition of "working class" is white men who don't have college degrees these days.

yes, this 1000 times.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: mencken on November 09, 2016, 10:19:02 pm
So either A) Marquette will be wildly off this cycle, B) Selzer will be wildly off this cycle, or C) Iowa will vote 13 points to the right of Wisconsin.

Turns out the answer was A, and amusingly enough, the answer was also C :D


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: EpicHistory on November 09, 2016, 10:40:29 pm
Turns out the answer was A, and amusingly enough, the answer was also C :D

So apparently, Michael Moore should've also added pollsters in his list of "things you will be telling to F-off by voting Trump". Honestly, this may be on the funniest posts on this forum Pre-election, as you pointed out.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 09, 2016, 11:20:43 pm
Haha, my overreaction and joy based on this poll was TREMENDOUS and HUGE >:D
I marked in blue

Holy f**k

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Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.


If accurate then this has implications on how the Midwestern White vote is swinging.  If so then places like WI and MN will be a lot closer than one might think as well, to a smaller extent, MI.

Yeah. It is why that poll (if correct) is GREAT news for Donald J Trump.

Iowa for Trump = White working class for Trump. = Mid- and somewhat Northwest are in play.

Selzer uses voter file. Something is going on...

I'm just leaving it here...
Midwest is about 0.8-0.85 correlation. HUUUUUGE.
Northeast is NH 0.7, Maine 0.63, PA is just 0.56


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Can people stop bashing Iowa as if everyone in the state supports Trump and is some inbred hick? I'm not happy about these polling results either and am quite disappointed in the majority of Iowans, but come on...

This is exactly what I've been predicting for a while now on Atlas. The White working class swinging hard for Trump is a very real phenomenon. But so too is the college educated White and minority vote swinging hard for Clinton. Mark my words, this is the future dynamic of our emerging political party system. Don't be entirely surprised if all Midwestern states end up more Trump friendly than expected (I still highly doubt he could win IL, MI, MN, or WI). Also expect him to perform incredibly well in Pennsylvania outside of the Philadelphia metro, in Upstate New York, rural New Hampshire, and in Northern Maine. At the same time, Clinton should perform well in Florida, North Carolina, Colorado, and Nevada. The only thing saving Pennsylvania is its southeastern part belonging to the Northeast Megalopolis.

That's why early voting statistics might backfire a bit...


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Castro on November 11, 2016, 07:34:21 pm
So I guess this is pretty much the only gold standard left.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 13, 2016, 05:45:58 pm
Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.
Hopefully Maine is next

No, but WI, MI and MN are in play. Probably NH.

Michigan Wisconsin and Minnesota are not in play.

Let them dream.

People who assume that the fact that Trump is doing well in Iowa must mean he's also doing well in in Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan are oversimplifying matters. First of all, polls do not suggest he's doing well in those states (except for a few odd Michigan polls). More importantly, these states are not at all identical to Iowa. They all have a much higher percentage of urban and suburban voters, a demographic that Trump struggles enormously with. Wisconsin and Michigan also have a higher percentage of black voters than Iowa. Not to mention that Minnesota and Wisconsin in particular have more college educated voters than Iowa.

::)


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: ElectionsGuy on November 13, 2016, 05:59:41 pm
What the hell happened to this thread? ???

The state is trending republican so dems have to reassure themselves by saying Iowans are dumb Hicks.

No, we say that Republicans are dumb Hicks, and clearly there are more of them in Iowa than before :)

Clearly a lot of dumb hicks that voted for Obama as well.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: IA more R than GA/TX/OH/FL on November 13, 2016, 06:09:59 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.
Sounds like someone has the deplorable fever!

But who cares about those racist inbred hicks?! We still have the firewa-... Oh wait...

I guess WI, MI, IA, OH and PA are Southern states now!


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: EliteLX on November 14, 2016, 12:39:07 pm
Why are Trumpies jerking off to this?  They're not close anywhere in the firewall.  I guess there is something symbolic about winning inbred corn farmers in the same way it is winning inbred miners.
Sounds like someone has the deplorable fever!

But who cares about those racist inbred hicks?! We still have the firewa-... Oh wait...

I guess WI, MI, IA, OH and PA are Southern states now!

For God's sakes these numbskulls even almost lost Minnesota LOL.

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According to Atlas, Tumblr, and elsewhere: apparently 300+ electoral votes worth of state populations are "racis KKK member stupid alabama-living cousin loving hick garbage monster truck driving!!!" families like shown above.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: TheDeadFlagBlues on November 17, 2016, 03:30:07 am
"How Stupid Are the People of Iowa?"

Very, very stupid, apparently.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: krazen1211 on December 06, 2016, 11:52:50 pm
Great poll!


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 15, 2017, 08:18:29 am
you know if he is up 7 in iowa, he can't be that far back in WI, MI

About 10 points behind. Don't worry. It'll be ultra close :)


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: (Still) muted by Kalwejt until March 31 on February 15, 2017, 08:22:25 am
-Trump ahead in IA as it has been the case for months.-

Trump Supporters: SEE GUYS!? WI, MN, MI, PA ARE IN PLAY NOW. Good grief.


Title: Re: IA-Selzer/DMR/Mediacom: Trump +7
Post by: Kempros on May 01, 2017, 03:49:43 am
It won't be 7 but a 2-4% Trump win sounds right.

I Still laugh to this day. Over 9 point Trump margin, and even voted to the right of Texas.