Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: dfwlibertylover on November 05, 2016, 11:28:33 pm



Title: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: dfwlibertylover on November 05, 2016, 11:28:33 pm
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitYTV0T1hDMnpDVkU/view
Trump - 50
Clinton - 45
Johnson - 3
Stein - 1


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Wolverine22 on November 05, 2016, 11:29:13 pm
*Laughs so hard his gut hurts*


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Arch on November 05, 2016, 11:29:41 pm
()


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on November 05, 2016, 11:30:06 pm
()

Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 05, 2016, 11:30:46 pm
this sums up this election perfectly.

those are, iirc...the "what would your neighbour vote"-guys.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Horus on November 05, 2016, 11:31:31 pm
This poll has 25-35 year olds breaking for Trump 51-39, and shows Trump getting 37% of Latinos. I find that very hard to believe, to say the least.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: dfwlibertylover on November 05, 2016, 11:32:26 pm
()

Suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuure.
my secret fetish is Ralston being wrong


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 11:33:16 pm
I'm conservative on polling, but I'm very very very confident that EV has already shown where NV is going. This is a hard swing and miss.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 05, 2016, 11:36:58 pm
if they would at least fine a tie.....

how does this work?

strict rules which make it clear that latinos never vote?

english-only landlines?

30%+ trumpocrats?


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Southern Delegate matthew27 on November 05, 2016, 11:37:02 pm
I can safely say that this is trash!


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: heatcharger on November 05, 2016, 11:38:25 pm
If Nate Silver had any sanity, which is hard to know after yesterday, he wouldn't include this garbage polling outfit in his model.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 05, 2016, 11:40:18 pm
This is just going to increase Trump's odds in Nevada and make Nate Silver's model even more of a joke! BEAUTIFUL!


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Ebsy on November 05, 2016, 11:52:45 pm
Uh, sure.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Deranged California Suburbanite on November 05, 2016, 11:55:47 pm
Did that Overtime Politics or whatever pollster reopen?


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Dr. RI on November 05, 2016, 11:56:35 pm

Trafalgar was polling at least as early as the SC primary this year.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 05, 2016, 11:57:59 pm
When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 05, 2016, 11:59:18 pm
When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Xing on November 06, 2016, 12:00:13 am
Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? ::)


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Eraserhead on November 06, 2016, 12:02:46 am
I think Hillary wins it but probably not by much.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Maxwell on November 06, 2016, 12:03:23 am
do terrible right-wing pollsters every go bankrupt or do people just like being lied to?


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 06, 2016, 12:03:44 am
NV has had many bad poll years but this must be the worst, if ralston is even in the same universe as the final vote.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 06, 2016, 12:05:27 am
When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?
Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Nat. Sec. Council Member Dwarven Dragon on November 06, 2016, 12:06:14 am
Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? ::)

We were told to disregard the AK SEN and CO SEN polls in 2014, and in the end those polls were spot on. "House Effects" or "Turnout misestimates" can always fade away over time.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 06, 2016, 12:08:00 am
Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

doesn't really sound like it.

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-predictions-campaign-14


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 06, 2016, 12:08:13 am
When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

It would also "discredit" Michael McDonald, who has called Nevada as "safe Clinton". That'd be literally 2 of the top 3 people who study NV politics "discredited". Go to their numbers and tell me where they're wrong. What thing are they expecting that they shouldn't be?
Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

I asked for a debunk of their math. We don't need Ralston or McDonald to see the numbers from NV, which are ~70% of all that will vote there. Debunk their numbers, not the men.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 06, 2016, 12:10:44 am
Clinton is probably favored based on early voting, calling it "safe" is delusional. I also love the convenient worship of a man who got half the competitive races wrong in the last election

doesn't really sound like it.

https://www.ralstonreports.com/blog/my-column-predictions-campaign-14
Ag, SOS, state house, and nv4. I don't give him much credit for getting nv3 and the governor's elections right as those races were never competitive


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Xing on November 06, 2016, 12:11:34 am
Will people finally stop taking NV polling seriously after this election?


...Unfortunately, they probably will. I mean, it just can't be wrong again, can it? ::)

We were told to disregard the AK SEN and CO SEN polls in 2014, and in the end those polls were spot on. "House Effects" or "Turnout misestimates" can always fade away over time.

The idea of Republicans narrowly winning those races wasn't inconceivable, though. Trump winning a state like NV with his numbers among Latinos in anything other than a 2014-style, low turnout environment makes absolutely no sense. Looking at the demographics and the early vote so far, it's much more likely that the polls are wrong (and they have been many times in Nevada.)


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on November 06, 2016, 12:22:06 am
2008: NV polls screw up, Ralston gets it right.
2010: NV polls screw up, Ralston gets it right.
2012: NV polls screw up, Ralston gets it right.
2014: NV polls do OK, Ralston gets it mostly right.
2016: Gee, I wonder who of NV polls or Ralston will get it right?


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Tulsi "Both sides" Gabbard on November 06, 2016, 12:26:20 am
These junk polls only serve to give Trump more ammunition for his "rigged election" talk.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2016, 12:30:04 am
Wait, were these the guys that did those 10,000 respondent daily polls for the South Carolina Republican State House Caucus or whatever during the primary?


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Maxwell on November 06, 2016, 12:36:13 am
as long as people continue to post TRAFALGAR polls i will continue posting this poll they did that should pretty much prove they are the worst in the business (http://cjonline.com/news/2016-03-04/new-poll-shows-donald-trump-retaining-lead-kansas)


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Dr. RI on November 06, 2016, 01:03:43 am
as long as people continue to post TRAFALGAR polls i will continue posting this poll they did that should pretty much prove they are the worst in the business (http://cjonline.com/news/2016-03-04/new-poll-shows-donald-trump-retaining-lead-kansas)

So what? It was a caucus poll.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Statilius the Epicurean on November 06, 2016, 02:03:11 am
Is this the worst poll of 2016?


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Maxwell on November 06, 2016, 02:21:59 am
as long as people continue to post TRAFALGAR polls i will continue posting this poll they did that should pretty much prove they are the worst in the business (http://cjonline.com/news/2016-03-04/new-poll-shows-donald-trump-retaining-lead-kansas)

So what? It was a caucus poll.

even a poll of a caucus shouldn't be as off as this poll was.



Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 06, 2016, 03:49:15 am
When Ralston gets discredited after this election I wonder who becomes the new hero of delusion for the left. Haven't heard much about the great Mark Mellman after he showed Bruce Braley ahead in iowa

You actually think Nevada is going to vote for Trump? lmao.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Lok on November 06, 2016, 04:45:41 am
If Nate Silver had any sanity, which is hard to know after yesterday, he wouldn't include this garbage polling outfit in his model.
He did... He adjusted it to T+2.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Wade McDaniel on November 06, 2016, 04:53:55 am
Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2016, 05:47:54 am
The constant barrage of sh**tty polls like this is one of the reasons this election year sucks so hard.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2016, 02:50:50 pm
Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein) on November 06, 2016, 02:57:11 pm
Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.
Angle was up by 3. She lost be 5.
Heller was up by 6. He won by 1.
Romney was down by 4. He lost by 7.

Clinton is down by 2-3. I looks like she will be in the -1 to 6 range. She should probably win and if she loses, it will probably because of one distinct demo spamming the polls.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 03:00:03 pm
Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.
Angle was up by 3. She lost be 5.
Heller was up by 6. He won by 1.
Romney was down by 4. He lost by 7.

Clinton is down by 2-3. I looks like she will be in the -1 to 6 range. She should probably win and if she loses, it will probably because of one distinct demo spamming the polls.

:o   You agree with me for the first time ever... OMG


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein) on November 06, 2016, 04:25:13 pm
Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.
Angle was up by 3. She lost be 5.
Heller was up by 6. He won by 1.
Romney was down by 4. He lost by 7.

Clinton is down by 2-3. I looks like she will be in the -1 to 6 range. She should probably win and if she loses, it will probably because of one distinct demo spamming the polls.

:o   You agree with me for the first time ever... OMG
I said she will probably win. Really have to adjust my thing.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 04:27:01 pm
Are they only polling people who have yet to vote?  If that's the case it would make sense if Trump led in most battleground states like this.

With early voting going on, I've actually been wondering this myself for awhile, since it tends to skew D more often than not.
Angle was up by 3. She lost be 5.
Heller was up by 6. He won by 1.
Romney was down by 4. He lost by 7.

Clinton is down by 2-3. I looks like she will be in the -1 to 6 range. She should probably win and if she loses, it will probably because of one distinct demo spamming the polls.

:o   You agree with me for the first time ever... OMG
I said she will probably win. Really have to adjust my thing.
So did I :o


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: Silent Hunter on November 06, 2016, 04:43:33 pm
Hopefully, this election will be Trafalgar's Waterloo.


Title: Re: NV: Trafalgar (R) - Trump + 5
Post by: The Invisible Hand (that suicided Jeffrey Epstein) on November 06, 2016, 05:28:12 pm
Hopefully, this election will be Trafalgar's Waterloo.
Nice pun or play on or what have you.