Talk Elections

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Clinton 48%
Trump 47%

1136 RV, 10-25-11/5 (via mail), 2.9% MOE

SENATE: Portman - 58. Strickland - 37

From a senior reporter at the Columbus Dispatch:

Randy Ludlow ‏@RandyLudlow  1h1 hour ago Canal Winchester, OH
Virtual tie: @DispatchAlerts Poll shows Clinton with 1-point lead over Trump in Ohio. Story soon at http://Dispatch.com

Michael D. Dawson ‏@midawson  39m39 minutes ago
Columbus Dispatch poll has Clinton up one point and Portman up 21 points.

Senate looks legit. Tremendous news!

Seems way too far off from recent polls (consistent R+5 except Emerson tie) to really be believable.

I'm pretty sure this is supposed to be a near-gold standard. Their final poll in 2012 had President Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-48 (http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2012/11/04/dispatch-poll-shows-ohio-a-toss-up.html). This is definitely good news for the Clinton campaign.

Uh - this is the OH gold standard. This is good news for Clinton. But like all polling, we'll see.

Do people really not know this stuff?

Excellent news.  Obviously a reason why Hillary and Co are continuing to push Ohio. 

BANZAI!!!!
Clinton should eke out victory in OH.

The CD poll was pretty good so far, except in 2000 when they predicted Bush to beat Gore by 10 and he won by only 3.

Ohio was never gone, and with Hillary's extensive ground game and Trump's lack there of, she can carry this state.

Woah...Back to tossup you go. Work that GOTV, Ohioans!

Does anyone know why there's no University of Cincinnati poll this year ?

They used to be the Gold Standard for OH ...

"C+" according to 538 with D+1.1 house effect.  Worse than "B-"  Gravis.

But your definition of the gold standard is Hillary leading, so no worries ::)

After looking into this one a bit, it seems it has a very weird methodology. I guess people "mail-in" their responses? I figure I should post this before Trump people jump all over it.

That said though, it has apparently been very accurate in previous elections, so we'll see.

This is Democratic version of Gravis. Trump is up in OH but maybe not a lot ahead, I'd say 2-3 points. EV looked good for him.

I wonder what this means about Michigan and Pennsylvania :)


Lol wtf no...

Jesus, how deluded are you?

Still think that Trump will win carry Ohio by a narrow margin.

Man, Strickland is really imploding big league. What's wrong with this guy? This race was supposed to be a neck-in-neck.

THE GOLD STANDARD

""C+" according to 538 with D+1.1 house effect.  Worse than "B-"  Gravis. " 1.1 Democratic lean just as Gravis has 1.1 R lean :)

I'd like to believe it but I kinda don't. The real number is probably T+1-2.

I don't think it's outside of the realm of possibility, but if she wins it will be only just and thanks to her superior ground game.

Would be a nice surpise for me on election night.

Two days ago, I would have predicted the state for Trump. But now with this and Hillary's late push in the state, I think it's as close to a pure toss-up as any state right now. Early voting in Ohio goes until 2PM on Monday. I do think if she wins, it will be a result of a vastly superior ground game and the Ohio Republican Party ground game sitting on its hands as far as the presidential race goes. Ohio Republicans seem to have been putting all their effort into reelecting Portman and even he's apparently actively courting Hillary supporters. And on top of that, with the news that Kasich didn't vote for Trump, I think Ohio is going to be very close (less than 2%, maybe even less than 1% for the winner).

Here's the article:

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Clinton 48%
Trump 47%

()

Don't be surprised if Hillary wins Ohio. Trump sheep seem to think their guy has all these battlegrounds locked up because of poll tightening, but they're in for a bad night. It's going to be fun to watch :)

Ugh, tough one to predict now.

Obviously Trump's night is going to be over very quickly if he loses here.

Bernie, Obama, y'all got time for an extra stop?

Some of the Repub avatars here are quoting 538 pollster ratings as gospel. They need to get off the reefer on this one. Nate obviously doesn't like the Dispatch poll because it is a mail poll but it is considered a gold-standard poll in OH for a reason; it almost always gets the election correct

Who knows. PPP said it's been within a point the last 4 times they've polled Ohio.

I've never thought of Columbus Dipatch as a good poll but since they got O's margin in 2012 pretty close, I hope they're on the right track again.

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/insight/2016/11/06/01-the-inside-story-dispatch-mail-poll-unorthodox-accurate.html

Interesting stuff.

The Columbus Dispatch poll has a good reputation people. Doesn't mean it's always going to be right but...

I guess that as weird and old world its method may seem, well, it isn't as though those of conventional pollsters are particularly well suited to 2016 is it?

This really could come down to ground game, and might be like Florida 2012. Two of the pollsters showing Trump up by 5 were very R friendly pollsters, and while Q is better than those other pollsters, it's still sometimes found weird results out of Ohio. This one could be a nailbiter.

Of course, Nate Silver adjusts this to a tie and it drops Hillary's nation-wide probability by a point. smh

The fact that that fraud rates this poll a C, when it has historically been one of the MOST ACCURATE IN THE COUNTRY is amazing.

Why are not complaining when 538 adjusts CNN, IBD/TIPP, Selzer or Quinnipiac towards Clinton (they are all "A" pollsters). smh ::)


No, it was Sienna (they were added together)

If Quinnipiac is rated an 'A' then whatever the rating system is it is trash. I mean they aren't bad for a uni pollster... in their own state... but...

Yes.  I think his ratings rely too much on methodology (which is obviously important... and Quinnipiac is live caller and calls cell phones, etc. so it makes sense that it would be rated higher than average) and not enough on actual accuracy (which is much more important).

Because it is better than her haha :P

I would love to see the University of Cincinnati poll (Ohio poll)

It's hilarious: the man built his name on an injection of empiricism into public discourse about polling, only to retreat into a mannered and theory-driven safe space!

It  is totally false. You don't need to think, just read  the description it is not THAT hard ::)

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Uh.  Nothing in that link supports what you said in your post.

"FiveThirtyEight’s pollster ratings are calculated by analyzing the historical accuracy and the methodology of each firm’s polls."

I'm definitely interested to see what they have to say.  In 2012, it came out on the day before the election I believe.

Obama +1 50/49

You always reads the title only, huh? ::)

BEAUTIFUL!

Please show me what I'm missing.

Fantastic news! :D

I really hope Hillary makes a strong push for OH.

One interesting thing about the demographics break down of the poll is that its about 88% white while the state's voting age population is closer to 83%. Not saying the real world demographics are going to represent election day, but if the actual results reflect this poll, then there's still room for dems to grow in Ohio by increasing minority turnout next election.

As for Portman vs Stricklan, the short of the long is, Portman went on air early with very misleading ads claiming his opponent destroyed the Ohio economy (which isn't true, as he was governor during the 08 economic collapse, not his fault) which has really set the race early.

Click on "definitions" and read :P

Because of the last second DUI story, obviously. Most polls in 2000 were way off due to that. Dubya probably would've won in a landslide if it never happened.

Every race has a deluge of negative ads. Toomey and the Republicans have run tons against McGinty as well. I don't get why it had such an effect in Ohio but basically none in other races, since they more or less cancel each other out. For whatever reason it seems like Dems have a very low floor in Ohio that isn't present in other states.

Part of it may be fitting with the Kasich narrative that he 'saved' Ohio as he got elected at the start of the recovery and is fairly popular here (though obviously not with me). If Kasich had lined up behind Trump and proclaimed that Trump was the bee's knees for the economy, the race might not be close in Ohio.

A self-selecting mail poll of RVs seems... problematic. I don't see any mention of a likely voter screen?

That's quite the strange poll method.

It's a weird methodology but it's got a fantastic track record:

2012 Sen: Brown 51-45 (actual 51-45)
2012 Pres: Obama 50-48 (actual 51-48)
2010 Gov: Kasich 49-47 (actual 49-47)
2008 Pres: Obama 52-46 (actual 52-47)

Wow.

Literary Digest poll was great... until it wasn't.

That's definitely gold standard material.  Why does Nate Silver still have a job?

Did Lit Digest nail the margins or just get the winner right?

So why is the "populist" Strickland doing 22 points worse than the far right neoliberal shill warmongering Wall Street banker bitch? I mean, his opponent is a mild mannered gay marriage supporting Bush budget director and former US trade representative. Pretty much the antithesis of a "populist." I thought "populism" was the key to Democratic success! I thought "populism" was popular! This can't be, Atlas told me these irrefutable facts! This state should be a Trump/Strickland landslide!

Their 1932 poll called FDR's margin within 1% of the actual result. Their 1924 poll had Coolidge's vote within 2% points. Not sure about 1920 or 1928.

SWEET SASSY MOLLASEY!!!  Great news!

I knew Ohio wasn't going red that easily. :D

So, this will act like Florida did last time and Florida will act more like Ohio did?

As a Democrat, I really want FL, NC and OH, simply to deny Trump the talking point that he beat Romney's electoral vote performance. I'm not confident about NC and thought OH was gone several weeks ago. Hopefully this poll and the YouGov poll are on to something.

So, yeah.

Sad! Though GOLD STANDARD Marquette also turned out to be terrible. Only Selzer is still good.

:(

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Junk Poll!