Atlas Forum

Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 07:37:19 am



Title: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 07:37:19 am
http://files.constantcontact.com/9c83fb30501/486bf15f-bd24-43fa-988f-79ba63efc430.pdf

NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4

Compared to    OCT. 13-17   

Clinton    51 (-3)
Trump    34  (+4)
Johnson   5
Stein        2


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: alomas on November 06, 2016, 07:39:25 am
Bill Mitchell in 3... 2... 1...

They oversampled Democrats by 21 points, it's a toss-up then!

:P


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Eraserhead on November 06, 2016, 07:40:23 am
Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: heatcharger on November 06, 2016, 07:40:54 am
Low-energy margins in blue states are actually a good thing. If she's leading by 4-5 points nationally, that means she's making up for it in competitive states.

I'm not saying I actually believe that logic, but it's fun to think about. :)


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 06, 2016, 07:41:10 am
Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Eraserhead on November 06, 2016, 07:42:20 am
Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: politicallefty on November 06, 2016, 07:44:50 am
Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 07:46:20 am
Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" :(

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Snek! on November 06, 2016, 07:47:54 am
Well, this is evidence against Hillary running up her numbers in some blue states and having none left for the middle-of-the-road ones.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Eraserhead on November 06, 2016, 07:52:07 am
Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.

Breaking 60% will be a close call mostly because Johnson+Stein+write-ins will probably = 4 or 5%.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Fusionmunster on November 06, 2016, 07:55:44 am
Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" :(

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Repeat after me: 538 is not gospel, neither are their pollster ratings. They can be helpful, but by putting them in the title your trying to tell us how repudatable a poll is before seeing it, which you shouldnt be doing.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Landslide Lyndon on November 06, 2016, 07:56:27 am
For some reason Siena paints an extremely rosy picture for New York Republicans in almost every poll.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: politicallefty on November 06, 2016, 09:33:34 am
Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.

Breaking 60% will be a close call mostly because Johnson+Stein+write-ins will probably = 4 or 5%.

You might be right. I may be a bit overconfident with that claim, but I think Trump will end up in Romney or Bush 2000 territory (34-36% statewide). He might get Staten Island, but the remaining four boroughs are going to be some of the most hideous results for Republicans on record. I think the main four will swing to Hillary over 2012, with Hillary getting above 80% in Queens and possibly close to 90% in Brooklyn. If someone like Dov Hikind has denounced Trump (of course, his lunacy would never lead him personally to Clinton), I expect the Hasidic areas to swing back to Clinton. If she gets Borough Park and the like, she's going to get a record number out of NYC, regardless of how Staten Island goes. To be perfectly honestly, I can't help but wonder if Manhattan goes above 90% for Hillary. I wonder if there are that many sane Republicans there to make that happen. After all, Trump lost his own back yard of Manhattan to John Kasich.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 10:27:01 am
Well, this is evidence against Hillary running up her numbers in some blue states and having none left for the middle-of-the-road ones.

That's far more of an issue in CA and TX (losing by 7 instead of 17).  I expect Trump > Romney in all of the NE states.
Yeah. Trump is extremely lucky that Hispanics are concentrated there.


Title: NY: Siena Research Institute: Clinton with Large Lead in New York
Post by: Dave Leip on November 06, 2016, 10:29:42 am
New Poll: New York President by Siena Research Institute on 2016-11-04 (http://uselectionatlas.org/POLLS/PRESIDENT/2016/polls.php?action=indpoll&id=3620161104079)

Summary: D: 51%, R: 34%, U: 8%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details (https://www.siena.edu/news-events/article/clinton-carries-17-point-lead-over-trump-into-final-days)


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Eraserhead on November 06, 2016, 10:30:04 am
Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.

Breaking 60% will be a close call mostly because Johnson+Stein+write-ins will probably = 4 or 5%.

You might be right. I may be a bit overconfident with that claim, but I think Trump will end up in Romney or Bush 2000 territory (34-36% statewide). He might get Staten Island, but the remaining four boroughs are going to be some of the most hideous results for Republicans on record. I think the main four will swing to Hillary over 2012, with Hillary getting above 80% in Queens and possibly close to 90% in Brooklyn. If someone like Dov Hikind has denounced Trump (of course, his lunacy would never lead him personally to Clinton), I expect the Hasidic areas to swing back to Clinton. If she gets Borough Park and the like, she's going to get a record number out of NYC, regardless of how Staten Island goes. To be perfectly honestly, I can't help but wonder if Manhattan goes above 90% for Hillary. I wonder if there are that many sane Republicans there to make that happen. After all, Trump lost his own back yard of Manhattan to John Kasich.

Hmm, the swings in NYC should be interesting. I'm thinking Staten Island will swing HARD to Trump and Manhattan will swing pretty hard to Clinton.

I also think Queens probably swings to Trump but I'm not too sure about what'll happen with The Bronx and Brooklyn (many competing factors at play in them).

I do expect Trump to be considerably stronger upstate than Romney as well.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Absolution9 on November 06, 2016, 10:52:38 am
Hillary should win by at least 20%. Johnson's number looks inflated.

I think Hillary wins New York by roughly 25%. I have no problem predicting right now that she'll break 60%.

Breaking 60% will be a close call mostly because Johnson+Stein+write-ins will probably = 4 or 5%.

You might be right. I may be a bit overconfident with that claim, but I think Trump will end up in Romney or Bush 2000 territory (34-36% statewide). He might get Staten Island, but the remaining four boroughs are going to be some of the most hideous results for Republicans on record. I think the main four will swing to Hillary over 2012, with Hillary getting above 80% in Queens and possibly close to 90% in Brooklyn. If someone like Dov Hikind has denounced Trump (of course, his lunacy would never lead him personally to Clinton), I expect the Hasidic areas to swing back to Clinton. If she gets Borough Park and the like, she's going to get a record number out of NYC, regardless of how Staten Island goes. To be perfectly honestly, I can't help but wonder if Manhattan goes above 90% for Hillary. I wonder if there are that many sane Republicans there to make that happen. After all, Trump lost his own back yard of Manhattan to John Kasich.

Hmm, the swings in NYC should be interesting. I'm thinking Staten Island will swing HARD to Trump and Manhattan will swing pretty hard to Clinton.

I also think Queens probably swings to Trump but I'm not too sure about what'll happen with The Bronx and Brooklyn (many competing factors at play in them).

I do expect Trump to be considerably stronger upstate than Romney as well.

I would bet good money that Brooklyn goes toward Trump at least a bit.  The Italian/Greek and Russian Jewish southern part will swing toward Trump while the rest of it is already maxed out for the Dems.

I also think Trump only takes a 20 point loss in NYS (versus 26.5 for Romney).  NYC will be roughly even with swings by certain groups in opposite directions.  LI will be way more pro Trump.  Westchester/Rockland will be about even.  Trump does way better in Upstate.  Romney lost Erie/Monroe/Onondaga/Albany counties by a combined 19/20 points, Trump will be under by only 10-15 points and he does better in the other upstate counties as well.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Kalimantan on November 06, 2016, 10:55:27 am
Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" :(

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Yeah but you know that 538 will be re-rating all the pollsters after 2016, so these ratings are going to be fluid, hardly set in stone


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: politicallefty on November 06, 2016, 11:00:45 am
Hmm, the swings in NYC should be interesting. I'm thinking Staten Island will swing HARD to Trump and Manhattan will swing pretty hard to Clinton.

I also think Queens probably swings to Trump but I'm not too sure about what'll happen with The Bronx and Brooklyn (many competing factors at play in them).

I do expect Trump to be considerably stronger upstate than Romney as well.

I think it's interesting that we disagree on Queens. (Yeah, I didn't mention The Bronx, but mostly because I don't think Hillary can squeeze any more votes out of there than Obama did in 2012.)

How do you see each borough voting in terms of margins? I do share your view that Trump will easily win Staten Island. I just don't see him making gains anywhere else in NYC, and I think the swing against him in Manhattan will far override any gains he gets in Staten Island and then some.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 11:09:09 am
Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" :(

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Yeah but you know that 538 will be re-rating all the pollsters after 2016, so these ratings are going to be fluid, hardly set in stone
Yeah, so?


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Sir Mohamed on November 06, 2016, 11:40:38 am
It looks like Hillary won't crack 60% in NY this election, just like President Obama did twice.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 06, 2016, 12:01:37 pm
Bill Mitchell in 3... 2... 1...

They oversampled Democrats by 21 points, it's a toss-up then!

:P

https://twitter.com/mitchellvii/status/795069258644525057


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Ebsy on November 06, 2016, 12:28:17 pm
Obvious junk. RIP Siena's pollster rating.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Kalimantan on November 06, 2016, 01:17:20 pm
Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" :(

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Yeah but you know that 538 will be re-rating all the pollsters after 2016, so these ratings are going to be fluid, hardly set in stone
Yeah, so?

It means these ratings are largely worthless


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Erich Maria Remarque on November 06, 2016, 01:31:34 pm
Stop putting the 538 rating in the header.

^^^^

Put it in the post if you'd like but it doesn't need to be in the title.

It doesn't need, but it should! Otherwise Fmr President & Senator Polnut and friends might start talking about Gold Standard, when the pollster is in fact just "C+" :(

And neither I or you want them to look like a fools, right?

Yeah but you know that 538 will be re-rating all the pollsters after 2016, so these ratings are going to be fluid, hardly set in stone
Yeah, so?

It means these ratings are largely worthless

(
Img
)


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Shadows on November 06, 2016, 03:54:11 pm
Pretty decent for trump! He should be more than happy!


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: bronz4141 on November 06, 2016, 04:29:23 pm
Trump is going to surprise a lot of people in Howard Beach, Belle Harbor, Queens and Forest Hills, Queens. Rego Park as well.

I could see some areas of the Bronx going hard to Trump, but not enough to win the Bronx.

Staten Island will go for Trump.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 06, 2016, 04:30:52 pm
who care


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: bronz4141 on November 06, 2016, 04:40:46 pm
who care

It's important. There is a rivalry in NY. Giuliani Democrats and working class Republicans vs. liberals, black voters, etc.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 06, 2016, 04:43:53 pm
Pretty decent for trump! He should be more than happy!

Why should he be happy about losing his home state?


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Absolution9 on November 06, 2016, 04:55:27 pm
Pretty decent for trump! He should be more than happy!

Why should he be happy about losing his home state?

If Trump actually only lost NYS by only 17 points he would have an excellent chance of winning PA, at least 50/50.  Doubt he losses be less than 20 in NYS though.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: Secret Cavern Survivor on November 06, 2016, 09:49:17 pm
who care

It's important. There is a rivalry in NY. Giuliani Democrats and working class Republicans vs. liberals, black voters, etc.

We all know that the latter will win.


Title: Re: NY - Siena College: Clinton +17, Nov 3-4, "A" (538)
Post by: henster on November 06, 2016, 11:29:06 pm
Just +2 favorablity rating in her home state may explain her underperformance, clearly she's not considered a real New Yorker after all this time.