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Election Archive => 2016 Senatorial Election Polls => Topic started by: heatcharger on November 06, 2016, 09:41:17 am



Title: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: heatcharger on November 06, 2016, 09:41:17 am
Link (https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/).

Florida:

Rubio 47%
Murphy 44%

Ohio:

Portman 52%
Strickland 39%


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: heatcharger on November 06, 2016, 09:41:51 am
If Rubio survives by a hair while Dems simultaneously lose in IN, MO, and NC, heads need to roll at the DSCC.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Vega on November 06, 2016, 09:54:35 am
Florida would definitely have (would?) benefited from a massive ad blitz by the DSCC.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: DavidB. on November 06, 2016, 10:13:53 am
Florida would definitely have (would?) benefited from a massive ad blitz by the DSCC.
At the expense of how many other seats?


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: MT Treasurer on November 06, 2016, 10:21:11 am
Yeah, I think Rubio won't win by more than 4 or 5 points anymore.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: DavidB. on November 06, 2016, 10:24:04 am
Flawlesssssssssss... Beautiful.... MARCOOOOOOO!


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on November 06, 2016, 10:26:35 am
Even if he wins by a small margin, I don't think running a lot of ads against him would have changed anything.

Rubio is well defined. When you are Marco Rubio, you are hated or beloved, there is no mittleground.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Fargobison on November 06, 2016, 11:01:00 am
I don't think money would have helped in FL, the Dems needed a better candidate.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: swf541 on November 06, 2016, 11:07:48 am
Even if he wins by a small margin, I don't think running a lot of ads against him would have changed anything.

Rubio is well defined. When you are Marco Rubio, you are hated or beloved, there is no mittleground.


Agreed, Graham should have run instead of Murphy as well.  Or heck even through Crist in would be better.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Chief Justice windjammer on November 06, 2016, 11:14:06 am
And I don't understand the bashing of Murphy, he's a decent candidate.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: politicallefty on November 06, 2016, 11:14:50 am
Florida would definitely have (would?) benefited from a massive ad blitz by the DSCC.
At the expense of how many other seats?

I agree. Florida is an expensive state. A massive ad blitz for a state like Florida would be something along the lines of at $10 million, if not even breaking $20 million. If Hillary wins, I think she needs to begin her oppo research immediately and discredit and destroy him if he attempts to run against her in 2020. Truthfully though, I think Rubio's best opportunity for the Presidency is to wait until 2024. If he could gather more experience and get his name on a major piece of legislation under a Clinton Presidency, such as immigration reform, he'd be the most formidable opponent.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2016, 12:24:05 pm
Murphy was a strong candidate on paper, but to beat Rubio Democrats would have needed someone to cut into his margins with Hispanics.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Xing on November 06, 2016, 12:41:56 pm
If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: DavidB. on November 06, 2016, 12:55:33 pm
If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.
Always easier to say in hindsight.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 06, 2016, 03:11:46 pm
If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.
Always easier to say in hindsight.

Many of us have said it in foresight.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Mangez des pommes ! on November 06, 2016, 04:33:47 pm
FBM <3 is still going to win easily. If the polls are undersampling Hispanics, this will definitely benefit Hillary, but not Murphy at all.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Xing on November 06, 2016, 04:38:17 pm
If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.
Always easier to say in hindsight.

I constantly said that the Democrats shouldn't have been so quick to pull out of Florida. If Bayh pulls off a win in Indiana, and Rubio wins by at least 4-5%, then I'll stand corrected, and the DSCC made the right call.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: DavidB. on November 06, 2016, 04:42:55 pm
FBM <3 is still going to win easily. If the polls are undersampling Hispanics, this will definitely benefit Hillary, but not Murphy at all.
Not entirely true. Hispanics will still vote for Murphy by a substantial margin, though much smaller than Clinton's will be. If Hispanics are undersampled this means FBM's lead isn't as large as projected, which is what I expect. He will win by 2-3.

I constantly said that the Democrats shouldn't have been so quick to pull out of Florida.
Fair enough.


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Speaker OneJ on November 07, 2016, 02:06:28 am
If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.
Always easier to say in hindsight.

I constantly said that the Democrats shouldn't have been so quick to pull out of Florida. If Bayh pulls off a win in Indiana, and Rubio wins by at least 4-5%, then I'll stand corrected, and the DSCC made the right call.

You might actually be right. It all comes down to the Latino vote though (a sizeable # are uncomfortable with Rubio, particularly).


Title: Re: CBS/YouGov: Rubio +3 in FL, Portman +13 in OH
Post by: Shadows on November 07, 2016, 06:37:22 am
DSCC Can spend a 100M on Florida & Rubio will still eek out a 4-5% win in the end. Take it to the bank. This race is fools gold.

Missouri, NC & NH with cheaper tv ads should be the target rather than wasting money on an idiot like Murphy!