Talk Elections

Link (https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/).

Florida:

Rubio 47%
Murphy 44%

Ohio:

Portman 52%
Strickland 39%

If Rubio survives by a hair while Dems simultaneously lose in IN, MO, and NC, heads need to roll at the DSCC.

Florida would definitely have (would?) benefited from a massive ad blitz by the DSCC.

At the expense of how many other seats?

Yeah, I think Rubio won't win by more than 4 or 5 points anymore.

Flawlesssssssssss... Beautiful.... MARCOOOOOOO!

Even if he wins by a small margin, I don't think running a lot of ads against him would have changed anything.

Rubio is well defined. When you are Marco Rubio, you are hated or beloved, there is no mittleground.

I don't think money would have helped in FL, the Dems needed a better candidate.

Agreed, Graham should have run instead of Murphy as well.  Or heck even through Crist in would be better.

And I don't understand the bashing of Murphy, he's a decent candidate.

I agree. Florida is an expensive state. A massive ad blitz for a state like Florida would be something along the lines of at $10 million, if not even breaking $20 million. If Hillary wins, I think she needs to begin her oppo research immediately and discredit and destroy him if he attempts to run against her in 2020. Truthfully though, I think Rubio's best opportunity for the Presidency is to wait until 2024. If he could gather more experience and get his name on a major piece of legislation under a Clinton Presidency, such as immigration reform, he'd be the most formidable opponent.

Murphy was a strong candidate on paper, but to beat Rubio Democrats would have needed someone to cut into his margins with Hispanics.

If Rubio wins by less than 2% while Bayh gets creamed, the DSCC needs to be held over hot coals. Part of it might be inelasticity, since very lopsided results in Florida are rare, and this race was probably going to be within 5-6% anyway, but it's frustrating to think that the DSCC wasted so much money in Indiana, when Florida might have actually been winnable. It is good that they pulled out of Ohio, but they should have done so even sooner.

Always easier to say in hindsight.

Many of us have said it in foresight.

FBM <3 is still going to win easily. If the polls are undersampling Hispanics, this will definitely benefit Hillary, but not Murphy at all.

I constantly said that the Democrats shouldn't have been so quick to pull out of Florida. If Bayh pulls off a win in Indiana, and Rubio wins by at least 4-5%, then I'll stand corrected, and the DSCC made the right call.

Not entirely true. Hispanics will still vote for Murphy by a substantial margin, though much smaller than Clinton's will be. If Hispanics are undersampled this means FBM's lead isn't as large as projected, which is what I expect. He will win by 2-3.

Fair enough.

You might actually be right. It all comes down to the Latino vote though (a sizeable # are uncomfortable with Rubio, particularly).

DSCC Can spend a 100M on Florida & Rubio will still eek out a 4-5% win in the end. Take it to the bank. This race is fools gold.

Missouri, NC & NH with cheaper tv ads should be the target rather than wasting money on an idiot like Murphy!