Talk Elections

http://www.fox2detroit.com/news/local-news/215858932-story

Clinton 50%
Trump 45%

Clinton 46%
Trump 41%
Johnson 7%
Stein 3%

Survey was conducted on Nov. 3. 1007 LV.

50-45 in the 2 way. No change from last two.

Very likely Dem

Tossup yall!

Good to see Clinton at 50% in the two way.

WOW! More evidence of a nationwide Clinton surge in the final days!

Yeah...but Donald can spend time and money there.

I wouldn't call it s surge, but a welcome and necessary consolidation

Their last poll in 2012? Obama +5. He ended up winning by 9.5%.

Official Primary results   March 8, 2016
49.7% Bernie Sanders
48.3% Hillary Clinton
2.1%   Others / Uncommitted

FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell
Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 482
March 7, 2016   
61%   Hillary Clinton
34% Bernie Sanders
5%   Others / Uncommitted

FOX 2 Detroit/Mitchell
Margin of error: ± 4.5%
Sample size: 475
March 6, 2016   
66%    Hillary Clinton
29% Bernie Sanders
5%   Others / Undecided  

P.S MI will be the shocker of the night on Tuesday.

Primaries and general elections are different!!! How many times do we have to tell you this

Steve Mitchell ‏@stevemitchell40  2m2 minutes ago
@ForecasterEnten I've been off by only 2.75% in all final polls in MI 2008-2014 in Gen Elections if you go through @RealClearNews Poll data

We have to keep things as horse race in our minds. Everybody thought Kerry could win. Maybe not so much McCain but definitely Romney...

His final 2012 poll (O+5) was off by 4.5%...

"only" 2.75%...

And Iowa is safe D. :)

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

Voting history is taken into account for polling. There was no real primary in 2008 (Obama withdrew his name in protest of the delegates being revoked) and Obama was unopposed in the state in 2012--there was no precedent for them to really work with (and MI's primary polls have been off for awhile, as bad as Nevada's GE ones.)

I guess he meant 2.75% in both directions.

Trump is polling worse than Romney in Michigan.

It is funny that it looks like Trump might lose by less than Romney did in Michigan considering it was one of Mitt's many "home states".

Well, you never know for sure what's going on when it comes to Michigan polling but it at least seems like a somewhat realistic possibilty.

I mean, Clinton and Obama are going here, their internals clearly show a closer race.

Could be for turnout too, especially if they're worried about black turnout.

I think MI is a possibility this year as more Republicans showed up for the MI primary than democrats.

this has never meant anything in the past.

everyone comes up with BS reasons why Michigan is competitive but the numbers show a picture that is worse than Trump then the last nominee who had obvious ties to the state.

Michigan isn't going to vote Republican after their Republican Governor poisoned the Flint drinking water.

Based on the internals in Michigan, I can see why Hillary would be worried.  This polling company pushed suburbans in the last poll, and this poll indicates that those same suburban voters are undecided.  I think there might be a group of undecided voters consisting of 5-7% of the electorate that is still undecided/leaning trump, and there is a lot riding on AfricanAmerican voters showing up in the urban areas.  

Primary turnout has no correlation with general election result.

If Trump can really win the non-Detroit Wayne/Oakland/Macomb area as this poll suggests, it's hard to see him losing the state.

How soon people forget that Obama was +4 in the average (similar to Hillary) before 2012 and he won by almost 10... it is much more Trump being desperate than Clinton being worried.

Hillary != Obama

Hillary gains in crappy MI poll = Everyone suddenly decides MI is a tossup. Huh?

Yes, but using the same logic, Clinton will beat her polls by twenty points and sweep the Deep South. ::)

My God people stop being so... thick.

This thread. Ugh.

I don't think MI is possibility, but I think it's a lean Dem (3-5%).  I can see why Dems would be scared given the polls missed Bernie Sanders in the primary and Trump is likely to get a boost from his grass roots, in addition to some normally apathetic, white independents.

In the good old days, a poll from a trash polling firm like this would have been largely ignored, sinking to the bottom of the page.  But now we are reduced to arguing over what is essentially useless garbage because Nate Silver destroyed the polling industry.  Sad!