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Election Archive => 2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls => Topic started by: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2016, 10:41:59 pm



Title: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2016, 10:41:59 pm
DEVELOPING

Trump 43
Clinton 40
Johnson 8
Stein 3

Clinton leads early vote 48-41.
Trump leads election day vote 44-38.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Buzz on November 06, 2016, 10:42:37 pm
Nice


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: BoAtlantis on November 06, 2016, 10:42:45 pm
Too bad


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: dspNY on November 06, 2016, 10:43:30 pm
Very divergent results between Ohio and Florida. Interesting


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Arch on November 06, 2016, 10:43:34 pm
Either this or Columbus Dispatch. Let's see who's right.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 06, 2016, 10:43:41 pm

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Lok on November 06, 2016, 10:44:32 pm
Link?


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 06, 2016, 10:44:35 pm
Certainly possible. Within the range of what we've seen here recently. Their combined results so far, however, are a bit confusing.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Sprouts Farmers Market ✘ on November 06, 2016, 10:45:31 pm
This is the junkiest polling company I have ever seen in my life. Give me GRAVIS MARKETING!


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Landslide Andy on November 06, 2016, 10:45:34 pm

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?

They both look like trash to me. Hillary isn't going to win FL by 8 and she's not winning tons of Republicans. For this one, there's no way her lead in the early vote isn't bigger, and undecideds/Johnson are way too high.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Pandaguineapig on November 06, 2016, 10:45:55 pm
Given this is a democratic aligned poll this should be encouraging for trump


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Xing on November 06, 2016, 10:46:31 pm
A Hillary win isn't out of the question, but Trump is probably the one to bet on here. 323-215 it is.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 06, 2016, 10:47:40 pm
A Hillary win isn't out of the question, but Trump is probably the one to bet on here. 323-215 it is.

I think they're under-egging Clinton's early-vote numbers, honestly. But we're at the point where I just sit back and see where we end up.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Speed of Sound on November 06, 2016, 10:48:48 pm
A Hillary win isn't out of the question, but Trump is probably the one to bet on here. 323-215 it is.

I think they're under-egging Clinton's early-vote numbers, honestly. But we're at the point where I just sit back and see where we end up.

Certainly couldn't be a bigger difference with YouGov, who found HRC+30. Somewhere in between.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: john cage bubblegum on November 06, 2016, 10:50:24 pm
I think I'm still comfortable calling Ohio a toss-up.  I guess slight advantage Trump, but I honestly think Clinton GOTV can eke out a win for her.  We don't have to wait long until we find out.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Hammy on November 06, 2016, 10:53:18 pm

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?

They're both partisan garbage polls--if Trump is up 3 here, he probably wins Ohio by 6. This poll erases any tiny remainder if doubt I have about Trump winning the state.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 06, 2016, 10:54:30 pm
nah....nothing we know assumes that trump is up by 6.

i think they are on the money here, even while their FL findings are trash.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Lief 🐋 on November 06, 2016, 10:54:54 pm

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?

They're both partisan garbage polls--if Trump is up 3 here, he probably wins Ohio by 6. This poll erases any tiny remainder if doubt I have about Trump winning the state.

But a partisan Republican poll just came out showing Trump +1 in Ohio...


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: psychprofessor on November 06, 2016, 10:55:26 pm
bonier made mention to caution that the women's share of the early vote is unprecedented and if it continues on election day could prove to hand the state to hillary


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Fmr President & Senator Polnut on November 06, 2016, 10:55:37 pm

Huh?

So I'm assuming the people who shat on the FL poll are going to embrace this one?

They're both partisan garbage polls--if Trump is up 3 here, he probably wins Ohio by 6. This poll erases any tiny remainder if doubt I have about Trump winning the state.

A D partisan poll that's significantly under-reporting  Clinton's early vote?

The real-world data is telling a radically different story to this poll.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 10:59:05 pm
They both look like trash to me. Hillary isn't going to win FL by 8 and she's not winning tons of Republicans. For this one, there's no way her lead in the early vote isn't bigger, and undecideds/Johnson are way too high.

The EV results are pretty consistent with the Columbus Dispatch poll:

OHIO

http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2016/11/06/dispatch-poll-finds-presidential-race-too-close-to-call.html#

Of the 36% (409/1136) of respondents who said they voted early, "Clinton is winning among those who said they already have voted, holding a 10 point advantage."

Per TargetSmart, Clinton up 7, 48-41 in early voting, Clinton up 23 with women (55-32)
https://twitter.com/_targetsmart/status/795471106471772161


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Buh her emails! on November 06, 2016, 10:59:14 pm
"How stupid are the people of Ohio?"


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Ozymandias on November 06, 2016, 11:00:48 pm
However, YouGov did find a much bigger Clinton EV advantage:

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/11/06/battleground-tracker-florida-and-ohio-head-photo-f/

OHIO

Of the 19% (226/1189) of respondents who said they voted early:

Clinton - 63
Trump - 33



Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: HillOfANight on November 06, 2016, 11:05:03 pm
http://targetsmart.com/news-item/tswmp-ohio-survey-early-voters/

The survey shows Clinton captured the support of 10 percent of self-described Republicans who voted early, while 81 percent voted for Trump. In contrast, Trump received the support of 4 percent of self-described Democrats who participated early, with 90 percent voting for Clinton.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: henster on November 06, 2016, 11:26:47 pm
Stein isn't getting 3% in OH and nobody is winning with 43% of the vote.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: NOVA Green on November 07, 2016, 12:04:30 am
I have been consistent in seeing Trump as a tossup (Trump) state for quite some time....

It appears that we had a Trump bump starting about three weeks ago, when many of the Republicans came home to the henhouse....

Still, many Dems are coming home as well, in a state with an extremely large number of college students .

Ultimately, it will come down to GOTV and turnout, and how White Union members, including Electricians and Carpenters, and with legacy Union voters in a state that has a strong history of labor activism from the Toledo auto-strike of '34 to the Youngstown "Little Steel Strike" of '37 (Indirectly creating the rise of the CIO), and the Akron Rubber Strike of '36.

Although Trump is attempting to appeal very hard to these communities, he is fighting against the wind in communities that fought & died with blood, sweat, and tears, to bring the unions in and create a closed shop at the height of the Great Depression with a Democratic President in power.

There is a history in the collective memories of these communities that is not easily forgotten even 60-70 years later, about the time where the bosses tried to divide working people, and pit workers against each on the basis of race, ethnicity, and religion.

Still, I think we will be staying up late Tuesday/ early Wednesday before we see Ohio being called.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: EpicHistory on November 07, 2016, 12:12:51 am
Mark my words, here and now. Trump takes Ohio by about +5.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: ApatheticAustrian on November 07, 2016, 12:14:30 am
Mark my words, here and now. Trump takes Ohio by about +5.

so.....maybe up to 10 points difference to WI?


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: EpicHistory on November 07, 2016, 12:22:05 am
Mark my words, here and now. Trump takes Ohio by about +5.

so.....maybe up to 10 points difference to WI?

Wouldn't surprise me, given the polling and other signs that Ohio (Along with Iowa and now perhaps Michigan) is ahead of the game in the realignment of the Midwest we're now seeing. 2016 I think is the first solid evidence we've gotten of what is to come, with the East Coast states sliding to the Dems while the Midwest reorients to the Republicans.



Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Xing on November 07, 2016, 01:17:02 am
Mark my words, here and now. Trump takes Ohio by about +5.

Quoting this for Tuesday.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Reds4 on November 07, 2016, 01:51:15 am
If Trump had a ground game in Ohio he would win the state, without one.. it's going to be really close.


Title: Re: OH-TargetSmart: Trump +3
Post by: Phony Moderate on November 07, 2016, 05:25:20 am
Bit of a pompous name for a pollster to have, no?