Talk Elections

Rhode Island:
() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/GALLERY/2947_13_11_16_1_01_11.png)

North Dakota:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-ND.png)

Wyoming:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-WY.png)

Montana:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-MT.png)

Compare with Montana governor:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-MT-Gov.png)

New Mexico:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-NM.png)

Johnson strength in 2% increments:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-NM-Johnson-Strength.png)

Minnesota:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-MN.png)

Here's VA and the Carolinas!

Though I'll have to redo NC in about a month or so when they release the full VTD results with the early vote apportioned.

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Do you have the data for the results by legislative district for the 2016 primary in North Dakota. I have been looking everywhere for it but can't find it.

Oklahoma:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-OK.png)

Georgia:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-GA-1.png)

Louisiana!

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() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-NE.png)

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-SD.png)

What was Johnson's strongest precinct? Did he win any?

Unofficial Alaska in-precinct Results.  Because Alaska doesn't break down the early vote by precinct, this is only of the election day vote.  The yellow lines are of the Alaska county equivalents.  A few precincts cross county equivalent lines:

() (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=16497)

I think the precinct Johnson allegedly won, 37-736 New Stuyahok, is in error.  Clinton probably won it big.  Note that 35-735 Kasaan was a Trump-Johnson tie, with each getting 7 votes.

The Alaska Dispatch News put together an interactive map of the two-party vote here (https://www.adn.com/politics/2016/11/19/interactive-map-precinct-by-precinct-presidential-results-show-a-deeply-divided-alaska/).

Kentucky:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-KY-2.png)

If you squint really hard you can see the last remnants of the rural and white democratic party in eastern ky.

Nevada:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/nv3.png)

Can someone do Utah if possible?

Where is the best place to find updated precinct shapefiles for a whole state?  Only one I can find for TN is from the 2010 census data.

Great maps! I would not have expected so much Trump support in Rhode Island.
If someone could do PA, that'd be great.

Arizona:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/11/2016-AZ.png)

I will post PA and UT when I can get all their data together.

Putting in requests for Massachusetts and New York.

Washington (yellow = Johnson, purple = write-ins)

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-WA.png)

Iowa?? :)

Can I request Arkansas?

Utah:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-UT-2.png)

McMullin vote share (non-standard ramp):
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/McMullin.png)

Johnson won precincts? That's amazing!

If past practice is any indication, Nassau County, New York won't release their official precinct level results until next year.  They always seem to be the last jurisdiction in the country to report official precinct level results.  In other words, don't expect a New York state precinct map any time soon.

Is it possible to request Florida?

I will get to as many states as possible, but I can only do them as I can get the data. Most states haven't released anything yet.

So those little slivers of red I see in SW WA appear to be some solid numbers in the city of Vancouver, a core in Longview WA, and maybe a few precincts stretching out along the Long Beach peninsula?

Can't zoom in on the map, that's what my naked eyes appear to see... :)

I'm not very knowledgeable about WA, so two questions:

1) What is the geographic framework of the Seattle metro?  Are any of its outer suburbs Republican still or maybe a few inner precincts that are super White and wealthy or something?

2) What kind of folks/developments exist on those islands?  Are they "rural," or are they kind of a happenin' spot to live?

Thanks!

Ohio:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-OH.png)

1) Overall the Seattle Metro swung quite strongly to Clinton especially in more inner / Eastside suburbs of King County. Traditionally the areas directly east of Seattle are lightly Republican or mixed, and as you see in the map it is heavily Democratic stretching out to the Cascades... In particular, the small, super-wealthy towns directly across from Seattle to the East - Medina, Hunts Point, Clyde Hill, Yarrow Point - voted for Clinton which might be a first...
However more working class (although not necessarily less diverse) suburbs to the Southeast and in Pierce County may have actually voted more for Trump although I would need to see a direct comparison. These areas have leaned Republican previously but occasionally present winnable races for Democrats locally. Not sure how that will look in the future. But nevertheless the swing in King County in wealthier areas was enough to offset these swings in SE suburbs.

2) The islands are definitely quite hippie and not heavily populated. Generally quite wealthy too these days with pretty high costs of living. Generally the only Republican area is the north part of Whidbey Island home to the Military Base.

I posted the swing map here (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=76921.msg5418170#msg5418170). The strongest swings to Clinton were in a ring about Lake Sammamish plus Medina/Yarrow Point and Mercer Island, which are of course pretty wealthy areas.

I don't think "hippie" is the word I'd use to describe all the islands. Vashon and some of the San Juans (esp. Waldon) are that way, but north Whidbey and Camano certainly are not.

Iowa:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-Iowa.png)

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-IL.png)

AMAZING maps!  I can at least give my Johnson County, IA (current residence) notes:

- The dark red in the center-right of the county is downtown Iowa City and the east side of town (generally older, lower income relative to the west side).  Staunchly Democratic, true Yellow Dogs
- The area just to the lower left is the west side of Iowa City, which is normally more Republican (thought still Democratic), and it is the same shade as the areas to the northwest - Coralville and North Liberty - two towns of about 20,000+ each that are indistinguishable from Iowa City (as in, the population never stops, they're all connected)
- The northern strip of the county that is blue is mostly wildlife area/part of a state park, and the only people who live out there are wealthy retirees who live in the woods or on Lake McBride
- The west strip of blue is mostly working class, classically rural small towns ... prime Trump pickup territory
- The top right that went blue is mostly rural
- The bottom right strip that is blue is mostly farmland but includes the small town of Lone Tree, which has experienced explosive growth since 2000 and is relatively affluent

Pretty much, Iowa City is like the Solid South.  You're a Democrat, or you don't really talk about politics.  The populated areas are almost unanimously Democratic (minus a few of the richer elementary school districts, which is how the precincts are broken up a lot of the time, which tend to be about 50/50), and the Republican strength in the area comes from a few outnumbered affluent families living in the more populated areas, the even more outnumbered small towns and the even MORE outnumbered rich people who moved out to live by the lake, haha.

Any chance of a CT precinct map?

I'll see what I can do.

Also, what about certain counties in Kentucky such as Campbell that aren't broken down by precinct? I can't possibly imagine Trump winning, say, Newport, but with our broken voting machines, you just never know.

AFAIK, Campbell County never bothered to release precinct results this time.

Connecticut:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-CT.png)

Kansas:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-KS.png)

What is up with that one precinct in northwest Kansas that went for Clinton?

Could I request Massachusetts?

I will map MA when they get around to releasing precinct results.


That's Nicodemus, KS. According to Wikipedia:


As of the 2015 ACS, Nicodemus Township was still 62% Black.

Thank you, much appreciated.

Wisconsin, post-recount:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-WI.png)

The fact that there is that much red in the WOW counties is pretty crazy. I think Obama in his two elections only won a couple wards in central Waukesha in 08 and got shut out in 12.

My suspicions Trump would clean up in largely working class south Columbus appear correct.

Tennessee:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/2016-TN.png)

Indiana?

Indiana and Missouri are two of the most difficult states to get data for. If I can map them, it likely won't be for a while.

Has West Virginia been mapped yet?

Massachusetts:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-MA.png)

Trump won my precinct, I'm shocked to be totally honest with you but if any republican could've won it  would've been Trump. My precinct is a mix of very upper class $150,000+ and a large working middle class with many plumbers, electricians, welders etc. It is also heavily white.

Could you please do Idaho next?

I did Idaho a while back, but I guess I didn't post it here? Strange. Well, here it is:

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Idaho-General-by-Precinct.png)

Thanks for sharing it! Disappointing that McMullin didn't get any precincts. I had looked into all of Madison County and saw that he didn't win any, so I figured that he probably wouldn't win any in the rest of the state. Oh well. At least he got a few dozen in Utah.

Clinton's underperformance in the UMass precincts of Amherst continues.

Oregon:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-Oregon.png)

Bonus Oregon Senate race:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-Oregon-Senate.png)

Comparison (Trump did better than Callahan where blue, Clinton beat Wyden where red/pink):
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/16-Oregon-Pres-vs-Sen-Marg.png)

Awesome RI---- you are the best of 2016 when it comes to precinct level mapping, as well as many other contributions to the Forum over recent years! :)

Question: Is where the frack were you able to not only pull detailed precinct level returns for all counties in Oregon, but additionally be able to translate that into precinct level maps????

Totally amazing, and feel free to send me a personal IM, since not only is data almost impossible to find, but the conversion to a mapping file format, where it is virtually impossible to find precinct maps let alone to convert to a visual format.... wishing I were able to reproduce this for the entire state, instead of having to wade through county by county.... :(

Haven't had a chance to review the map in detail, Holiday Season and all that, but totally looking forward with more detailed review.    ;)

http://imgur.com/k5DYXiU.png (http://imgur.com/k5DYXiU.png) In the Portland area, Hillary's victories were mostly in the precincts within Portland's urban growth boundary (UGB) [in green]. Trump mostly won precincts directly outside the UGB.

Access to view the webpage denied error message....

Not sure if it's just my PC or if anyone else is having the same issue with what appears to be an access/permissions gig.

You can view the image if you delete off the "i." at the beginning of the link. Imgur doesn't work properly on the forum.

Is Lake County a single precinct?

Wow great maps! How do you do them so easily? And I think most election boards post precinct numbers?

No there are actually more like 19 precincts in Lake County, although most are extremely small in population.... Also Lincoln County on the Central Coast has multiple precincts, but for whatever reason wasn't converted into precinct level numbers on the map.

No, but I couldn't get a map of the precincts in several counties (Lake, Lincoln, Union, Wallowa).

My precinct is exactly like this- 45% Irish and >90% white, lots of nice houses, lots of plumbers and the like; but Hillary won it although not as solidly as most of the other precincts in my town. Trump will easily win here in 2020 if he does a solid job, though.

Alabama:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/16-AL.png)

West Virgina (some counties didn't give precinct breakdowns):
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/16-WV.png)

Pennsylvania:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/16-PA.png)

2012-2016 Swing:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/2012-2016-PA-Swing.png)

Anyone have Vermont?

Thanks!

Could we see New Jersey?

California:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/2016-CA-General-Fixed.png)

Approximate swing:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/2016-CA-Swing-Fixed.png)

Anyone want to explain the Republican areas of San Francisco?

Some areas swung R, but there weren't any outright R areas in SF.

The swing map of Cali is particularly interesting....

Looking at the Bay Area, you see some of the largest swings towards the Democrats in relatively wealthy areas in the East Bay, like Walnut Creek/Concord rolling all the way down to parts of South Bay especially the NW parts of Santa Clara County, and then all the way up the Peninsula.

Meanwhile you have a trend towards the Republicans in some of the most working-class parts of the region, including some heavier African-American communities in places like East Oakland and Hunters Point are of SF....

Even looking at LA County, there is that major light blue gap in the Middle running through historic Watts/ "South Central" all the way into Northern Long Beach that jumps out as well.

Shift over to the wealthy Coastal communities all the way from halfway through Orange County to Malibu, there are huge swings towards Clinton, not even going into some of the wealthier communities in the Canyons of OC and LA counties....

What is going on with that sea of dark blue in the Middle of Orange County???

Hurts my eyes just looking at it, and don't quite understand the context in that part of the County...

Crap, I think I missed some precincts in OC. That would affect the swing map too...

EDIT: The maps have been fixed for OC.

The swing in the african american areas is mostly because of the dropoff in turnout compared to when Obama was on the ballot.

Did Johnson win a precinct in Lake and San Bernardino Counties?

Stein won the precinct in Lake, and Johnson won a couple precincts including the San Bernardino one.

Have you been able to obtain an Indiana map yet?

Miles and myself are both working on Indiana. We're about 60% through the state, but it's a real pain.

Most of the "swing" in East Oakland stems from the fact that Stein received 5-8% of the vote in those precincts.

I suspect that this is true in most of southern SF as well, though not to the same degree. What's interesting about Stein's support in California is that the usual Green pattern ceased to exist this year, with Stein doing rather well in barrios.

Florida:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/16-FL.png)

So Celebration voted for Trump? That comes as a bit of a surprise.

Why wouldn't it? Isn't the whole town just one huge corporation?

Yeah, from limited research, it seems like a small community of rich White people in Central Florida ... seems like a Trump county to me.  Exit polls show that Trump's percentage correlated directly with a higher income, with being White and being a White Southerner, specifically.  It seems like that place would be rock-ribbed Republican.

I'm reading about it on Wikipedia. According to Wikipedia, Celebration is a "community development district." Only property owners are allowed to vote, and each of them gets one vote per acre that they own.

That has got to be unconstitutional.

I wonder if there's data of how the suburbs around Disneyworld voted compared to the suburbs around Disneyland. Orange County, FL vs. Orange County, CA.

How tf do you make these

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/16-MS.png)

LOL, I love how MS is pretty much navy blue vs. dark red.

Also, I just kind of realized this morning that if you knew where someone lived - and that area was in a really small (likely forested?) precinct - you could theoretically prove how they voted, even if they preferred to keep it secret, haha.

RI has been doing this since at least 2012, and Alcon was involved in a similar project back in '08....

I think it's a mix of being able to pull Shapefiles/GiS data combined with county level precinct data available....

My question is a bit less on the tech side of how to create these awesome maps, but rather where the heck some of these county level precinct results are pulled from, since in many cases, it requires a significant amount of expenditure to obtain raw precinct level data, and quite possibly expenditures to obtain county precinct maps where the database info can be tied into the mapping format....

I would love to be able to generate these types of maps, but I suspect that this data is not cheap to procure, even if one had the skills/training/experience to convert....

Maybe I'm totally off-base here, but I definitely appreciate the awesome goodness that comes from the labor, time, and expense to generate these!!!!

Mississippi's precinct results are even messier than the state's borders.

New York:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/16-NY.png)

So what's with those Trump precincts in Brooklyn, Queens, and the Bronx?

Most Trump precincts in those boroughs are full of white ethnics, largely Italian and Irish-Americans, and/or Orthodox Jews.

No, and I'm not sure how easy it would be to get either.

Texas:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-TX.png)

Anybody have New Hampshire or Maine?

Interesting that Trump still won precincts down near the mexico border in south Texas.

Was going through your maps. You do great work. However there is a mistake on the IL county map. In Kankakee county, IL; Pembroke township voted 91% clinton yet you have the area shown as Trump supporting.

I was aware of that but thought it might have been a data error; however, looking at the demographics of the township, I'll change it back.

It'd be really interesting to see metro areas circled/outlined on these.  It's easy to just see a glob of red and assume that's the metro, but I'd wager the outer suburbs of most metros are solidly blue.

Do you mean city boundaries? Metros areas are just county aggregations. I could probably do city boundaries for a state or two by request, but I'm not going to do it generally as I feel it makes things more cluttered.

I wasn't requesting, just thinking "out loud," haha.  But I meant within the counties, I guess (like the yellow areas on a road map).

Michigan:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-MI-1.png)

Is it possible that there's a better looking Virginia map in the works? The one you have on page 1 is pretty small and the lines are quite dark. If not that's fine!

Here:

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-VA.png)

I'm pretty sure there's a mistake on the Massachusetts map. Otis voted for Clinton, not Trump.

Thx RI! Your 2012 Virginia map btw has a broken link.

Thanks. It looks like I mixed up about five precincts in the O/P area.

EDIT: Here's the fixed version:

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-MA-Fixed.png)

By request, here's the MA swing map:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-MA-Swing.png)

Hey--- RI if you're taking request for swing maps mind running the Oregon '12 to '16 Presidential swing map?

It's not exact, but here you go:

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/16-OR-Swing.png)

Those are two I would really want, more than any other state outside the West along with Vermont. Even earlier election precinct maps for those state do not seem very good.
Are the Democratic precincts in Siskiyou and Inyo Counties Native American? That's the most obvious explanation, but they do not look Democratic enough to obviously be that, and I do not know of any Native reservations in those counties (Siskiyou last voted Democratic in 1992; Inyo has not done so since 1964).

I assume Democratic precincts in eastern Mariposa and Tuolumne Counties are associated with public service workers in Yosemite, who would be severely affected by major climatic changes or even Republican government cuts?

Dem precincts in Siskiyou are Mt Shasta and Dunsmuir, and Weed....

The map makes it look crazier because of the smaller rural areas, where Clinton was effectively slaughtered.... Not too much of a Native American pop, unless possibly that precinct on the Western part of the county bordering Del Norte/Humboldt.... could just as easily be an White counterculture precinct in the hills of the Coast Range, or a mix of both....

I'll let others speak to Inyo and the Sierra Mountain counties....

Hey I know you mentioned Indiana would be hard to complete but that you were working on it, any chance you could post what you have? As always, thank you for all the work you put into this thread.

I'm very close to finishing Indiana, but not there yet. Only two counties left.

New Jersey
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/16-NJ.png)

NJ Swing
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/16-NJ-Swing.png)

Interesting that the giant Dem swing in the middle of NJ seems to have actually stayed (barely) Republican.

Well that area is historically some of the most Republican turf in the state, being chock full of wealthy suburbanities and NYC commuters, but that also made it prime territory for big Clinton swings. The Chathams. Madison, Mountain Lakes, Morris Plains, Randolph, and Morris Twp in Morris County all swung from Romney to Clinton (the Chathams were both more than 60% Romney!) The 11th congressional district (most of Morris County) went for Trump by less than a point compared to Romney's 5 point margin, and the 25th legislative district (the southern part of the county) actually went for Clinton by about 220 votes. I have a feeling this won't last once "normal" circumstances return, but if the realignment continues and is permanent this could be fertile ground for Dems going forward...

Is there any chance at a Kansas swing map?

Interesting that massive swing toward the Republicans in southern Bristol County. I always figured that area to be staunchly democratic especially in Fall River and New Bedford. Also the big swing to the Democrats in Northern Bristol. Cant help but notice my old hometown of Braintree having crazy swings both ways, toward the Republicans in the Hayward Street area in the north of town, and to the Dems on the West and in the Highlands (south)

Portuguese Americans were a bit late to follow Italian americans in swinging to the GOP. Trump managed to make many of them switch from lean democrat to lean republican in 2016.

The pro-D swing in my area honestly baffles me for some reason (even though it shouldn't).

I was most surprised by the south shore corner of Hingham, Norwell, Cohasset, and Scituate. Those are all usually heavily republican in governor and senate races. Western Norfolk County also took me by surprise since thats usually extremely republican

I am *floored* that South Boston not only didn't swing hard to Trump, it actually swung hard to *Clinton*.

The rest is pretty unsurprising.

Most of my family still lives in Southie. Unfortunately its not Whitey Bulger's town of working class Irish any more, the yuppie infestation is pretty severe there

Wouldn't call the population "lean Republican". Still voted largely for Hillary Clinton and they remain staunchly Democratic downballot.

Down ballot races in Mass can be misleading. The republicans rarely put up congressional candidates let alone a credible one. But I was amazed. To see Hillary only got 58 and 62 in Fall River and New Bedford compared to them being over 70 for Obama both times

New Hampshire by precinct doesn't get you much more than a town map does:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/16-NH.png)

Swing:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/16-NH-Swing.png)

Indiana:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/16-Indiana.png)

Swing (approximate):
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/IN-Swing-12-16.png)

Great work RI! That map is beautiful. That far southwestern corner of Hamilton County is very telling, that's the richest part of the state if I'm not mistaken, and I don't think it has ever been democrat before.

Amazing how much ground Democrats have lost in Indiana in eight years. Indianapolis and its surrounding suburbs are swinging hard towards Democrats though.

Also, could you possibly make a swing map of Indiana and/or Virginia from 2008 to 2016? I would really love to see those.

Wow--- thanks for pulling this together in one of the toughest states in the Union to pull precinct level data from and incorporate into a visual map based format!

It would be extremely interesting to see the '08 Pres GE number for Indiana and the '08 > '16 swings, but this is data this is likely virtually impossible to obtain, unless someone like yourself or Alcon generated a map back in '08 to give us an idea...

Regardless, swing patterns appear eerily familiar.... Huge swings towards Trump in heavily rural & small town areas, and some decent swings towards Clinton in the relatively upscale areas around suburban Indianapolis (With many fewer voters than small town America).

2008 data is actually some of the easiest to get. All I can say is to have a bit of patience... Good things are coming.

You are the best!!!! :)

Trump also did really well in Wayne Township (blue collar mostly but pretty diverse township on the wet side of Marion County.

Missouri, and thus the national map, is a handful of counties from being completed.

Colorado:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/16-CO.png)

Colorado is interesting. What is the huge red area west of Denver?

I think you are referring to ski country - Aspen, Vail, Eagle, etc.

I figured.

And Boulder. Cant forget that. Cambridge in the Rockies

Do you have the swing map for CA?

I had one, but I realized I made some errors when I created it. I haven't gotten around to remaking it yet, but I probably will do so some time this week.

Colorado swing map:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/CO-Swing-2012-16.png)

I'm seeing a trend in a lot of these western swing maps: the areas swinging toward Hillary tend to be more white while the areas that are more Hispanic tend to be swinging toward Trump. Not that it proves anything, but still.

^That is really interesting, and the above map does seem to back that claim up, though I'm curious if there's anything special about that dark red precinct in the Southern part of the state.

RealisticIdealist, not sure if we have "met" on here but your work is stupendous. I noticed where you indicated that Missouri is one of the hardest states from which to collect precinct results. I'm just curious as to how you're going to go about getting this information. I know some county clerks publish their precinct results on their counties' websites (Cape Girardeau County being one such). I'm assuming, since the Secretary of State website does not seem to have precinct information, that you'll have to contact each individual county and have the county clerks get that information to you? Sounds like a tedious process seeing as how we have so many counties here. I tried to do this once where I e-mailed all the county clerks in Southeast Missouri asking for precinct level; very few clerks responded, but the ones who did and sent precinct level results were Phelps County (Rolla) and St. Francois County (Farmington). Scott County also publishes its results by precinct on its website.

Hope this assists you. I'm very much looking forward to seeing the finished product of our state! :)

It's also interesting to note that some of the areas with the largest swings towards Clinton were relatively wealthier places...

For example--- if we look at the Denver suburbs of Douglas County, you see significant swings in places with pretty high median household incomes....

El Paso County (Colorado Springs area) you see significant swings towards Clinton in the relatively affluent North Central part of the County, and to some extent in the hills West of Colorado Springs.... Meanwhile in the lower income precincts within the City, you have a significant swing towards Trump.

That seems to be a pattern nationwide.

On Mississippi's map:

Could it be a mistake in Hinds County located in Jackson (West) where there is a lonely blue dot in a sea of red?

Yup... and there is whole discussion on this thread about that very phenomenon.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=259050.0

Since I have been involved in pulling some numbers for various places, RI's awesome precinct swing map caused me to take a peek at a few locations in Colorado to see if the patterns match.

It appears the City of Jackson slightly renumbered their precincts in 2013. I'll fix it.

EDIT: Here's the corrected version:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/16-MS-Fixed.png)

Arizona, please?  I'd love to see the swing map.

I've already posted the 2016 AZ results. As far as swing goes, AZ's rough because there have been a lot of precinct changes and consolidations in the rural areas between 2012 and 2016. I'm not sure how well it will work, but I can give it a shot.

Here's my AZ swing attempt. It appears the story here is a bit more nuanced than in Colorado. The Hispanic areas of Phoenix and Tucson swung slightly one way or the other but not by that much while the big Dem gains were in the white suburbs west of Phoenix and north of Tucson. However, the Dems did make big gains in many of the heavily Hispanic parts of Santa Cruz and Yuma Counties along the Mexican border, but not really in Cochise County along the border. Perhaps this is due to higher levels of immigration as opposed to swings? I'm not sure.

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/AZ-Swing-12-16.png)

Hey RI, these maps are great.  Wondering if you saw my other thread asking about precinct maps.  Would love to pick your brain about recent precinct maps if you have the time.

RI, got your message but I guess I can't send PMs yet.  Just wanted to say thanks -- still holding out hope I can find something systematic, but knowing which counties haven't changed much, as you noted in your message, will be a time-saver if I have to go down that road. 

Great work!  Those white suburban swings do seem consistent with the rest of the country.

I've noticed on the main page of this site that northeastern states have the votes broken down to each town.  Will this be the case for other states soon?

Probably not Derek. That's a function of the northeastern States largely making county government irrelevant. In most states, there won't be a sharp alignment between precinct boundaries and municipal boundaries.

Did you tabulate or post the Kansas swing map yet?

We can also see the town/city maps for many of the Midwest states.

Is anyone working on Florida?

I'm real curious.

There's a map of Florida on page 4.

Thanks, but I should have been more specific.

I meant a swing map.

Like you did with the Virginia map, could you please provide a higher-quality North Carolina? Thank you!

Amazing work you did there realisticidealist.

Now plz put together a US-wide precinct map of all the states you did so far ... :P

(I guess this would be the first of its kind ever)

BTW: How many states are still missing, where there's no precinct map yet.

PS: On the CO map, what are the few white and grey areas ? Something is probably a tie, but what is the other ?

This and more is coming soon. Very soon.

Better interest-grabber than Maddow's tweet. I look forward to it.

In regards to South Boston, 56.6% have less than high school degree, so it's still a working class seat by in large, why did it swing to Clinton so heavily?

Looks like Tuesday's going to be a big day.


Uh, all the areas near and in Boston with lower than average education levels swung toward Trump. The actual neighborhood of South Boston has been thoroughly gentrified by young, educated professionals and actually pretty well off now.

Southie now, ain't the Southie that it was in the 70's.

I realise that, but through demographics it's still like that, no? It's highly gentrified I get that.

http://www.city-data.com/neighborhood/South-Boston-Boston-MA.html (http://www.city-data.com/neighborhood/South-Boston-Boston-MA.html)

Sadly, it looks like the great unveiling has been bumped to tomorrow. Not my decision. Sorry.

Ahhhhh! You forgot Hawaii. Hawaii is important ;)

:(

Way to keep us in suspense....;)

Looking forward to the final product, as with all of your awesome projects....  :)

It's out of my hands. I'm hoping a certain third party will get back to me today; that's the last hurdle to get over. If it were up to me, I'd have posted the maps already.

So is it coming out today or tomorrow? I'm confused right now xD

They aren't "missing" as much as I haven't bothered posting them.


Ok, here's the deal: Right before I finished the national map(s), I made a deal with a website so that I'd let them host the maps initially in exchange for money and them paying to host interactive versions of the maps. It was meant to go live last week, but another (much larger) website who might also license the data from me expressed interest at the last minute . We've given them a deadline of today to get back to us before we press on and go live. If they don't respond, it goes live tomorrow. If they do respond, it might delay things another day or two. I should know by the end of today.

kk thx!

Don't stress yourself.

Stress kills.

The full map goes live tomorrow morning, and I'm 99.99999999999% sure there won't be any more delays.

I'm really hyped about it 'cause me and my buddies are planning to print it large-scale like a poster :D

Here it is. (https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/creating-a-national-precinct-map/) Per my agreement with them, I'll wait to post the Atlas-colored maps until Saturday.

EDIT: Looks like we crashed the interactive. Sad.

Wow. I congratulate you on this. This is amazing. Printing it out right now :D

I forwarded this to the History Department at my school.

This is great RI. Your write up was very nice as well. Congrats on a successfully completed project.

Got a couple of short #analysis pieces from this coming today, too. Here's the first: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/education-best-explains-the-presidential-swing-map/ (https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/education-best-explains-the-presidential-swing-map/)

Amazing. Swing maps are greatly made and easy for studying.

It's so beautiful.

Wondering why Kansas' swing map is so speckled. Perhaps just Hispanic influx? Idk it doesn't look like Nebraska, even close to the state border...

Kansas has much smaller precincts than any of its surrounding states, which allows for more variation. Don't know why.

Edit: Also, Kansas had some Brownback blowback.

My second article: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/hispanic-heterogeneity-in-the-2016-election/

:)

Nice, amazing work.

So, you are converting these maps into Atlas colours soon ?

This Blue for Democrats and Red for Republicans is hurting my eyes.

Great work! Thanks for doing this!

Latino Decisions called my article "fake news." lol

Excellent work, as always.

It took a while, but Adam Griffin and I eventually did get the 2008 nationwide results by VTD/Block Group (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=205978.0) for most of the states based on the Dave's Redistricting App data up on an interactive Google Fusion Table (https://fusiontables.googleusercontent.com/embedviz?q=select+col2+from+1yNrXDGKwWCv9dN3mNCq5IjJ0u7uo-MnvLmPbolVk&viz=MAP&h=false&lat=33.69675505032916&lng=-69.11624857429098&t=1&z=3&l=col2&y=2&tmplt=2&hml=GEOCODABLE).  I don't remember if this map was of the 2-party vote or overall vote - probably the former. The national map looks like crap, but you can see detail once you zoom in to an appropriate level.  That was the best we could do interactively, at least back in 2015 when the project was done.  This was before Carto.com, though - and I never tried putting a similar map up there.  I imagine Carto.com would charge an arm and a leg and/or crash under the server load were you to put a similar map with DDHQ-driven (instead of just Atlas or RRH-driven) traffic up there.

Fantastic job, RI, tremendous, yuge.

Despite what FAKE NEWS latino decisions might tell you, it's obvious that Trump on bigly across the map.

Carto said they'd charge $6000 a month to host the map given the traffic and detail. We had 75,000+ views in the first 20 minutes before the interactive crashed.

Is there a way that you could host an interactive map somewhere else but post it here and not elsewhere so we can use the map?

Anyways, congrats on the project, I bet you're going to get a full-time job working for the Upshot after this!

(This is a ridiculous request but I want the maps!!!!)

The Washington Post's article lists their small counties (which, presumably, they considered rural) as Webb, Presidio, Starr, Hidalgo, Cameron, Zapata and Potter Counties.  Of those, Webb (Laredo), Hidalgo (McAllen/Pharr/Westlaco), Cameron (Brownsville/Harlingen) and Potter (Amarillo) counties contain significant cities and urban areas.  Their population would swamp the more rural counties on the list - Presidio (Marfa), Starr (Rio Grande City) and Zapata (Zapata).  So...

Great stuff!

This is exquisite.... a veritable work of art (As well as well a major contribution to the body of knowledge that lends greater ease towards interpretations of election data).

Dang. NBC just shared this: http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/these-detailed-election-maps-can-show-your-neighborhood-s-vote-n740616?cid=sm_npd_nn_fb_ma

I tip my hat to you, RI. :)

Oh, golly congrats RI look at NBC!! This is amazing. By the way I got your map at a large-scale posted in my room :D

This is a pretty specific question, but does anybody know what's up with that one strong democrat rural precinct in Illinois on the Indiana border up north right east of Kankakee?

That's Pembroke Township, which is 80% Black.

An insane amount of people online think that election maps are "misleading" because ... the country is not uniform in population density.

They would be misleading if they were used not to look at geographic patterns but instead to tell who won more total votes. But, good news, we've got Arabic numerals for that.

What's worse is that precinct maps actually do visually demonstrate population density through the density of precincts.

I have to admit though, a proportionally-shaped national precinct map would be pretty cool. Idk how one goes about creating cartograms anyway tho.

Btw, wikipedia says turnout dropped by 0.2% from 2012-2016. Is that true?

As I promised, here are the Atlas-colored maps:

2008
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2008-US-President-by-Precinct-Atlas.png)

2012
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2012-US-President-by-Precinct-Atlas.png)

2016
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2016-US-President-by-Precinct-Atlas.png)

2012-16 Swing
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2012-16-Presidential-Swing-by-Precinct-Atlas.png)

Something did seem a bit odd there. I'll look into it.

This is fascinating stuff, being able to graphically look at the data at a national level, and the swing map in particular both reinforces and simultaneously challenges some aspects of the CW about the 2016 GE...

1.) So, for starters although it is pretty clear that there was a significant overall swing towards the Republican candidate in rural heavily White precincts nationally, as well in in small towns and cities, this phenomenon was by no means universal, particularly in the Western United States, the Southern Part of the Great Plains, the Hill Country of Texas, Parts of Cajun Country in Lousiana

2.) The map clearly demonstrates the overall massive swing towards the Republican candidate in the "Corn Belt" and "Grain Belt" of the Upper and Northern Midwest in many precincts that are properly classified as "rural America", and all the way through huge swathes of Pennsylvania and Upstate New York.


3.) One other interesting item that the map graphically details is the extent of the voting swings between Metro areas and rural areas and smaller towns/cities.

Granted, it is necessary to zoom into the highest level detail and scroll gradually through the United States to see how extensive those swings overall were in almost all large Metro areas, regardless of the Anglo/Minority Population statistics....

Sure, we have an idea from other research that in general many of the highest income areas, even in heavily Republican places swung for towards the Democratic candidate by 15-20% margins.

However, obviously the vast majority of Metro area residents do not fall into the "upper middle class" category...

There are a ton of Metro areas we have talked about on Atlas regarding the Democratic swings, obviously Phoenix and Metro Atlanta spring immediately to mind, as well as some talk about places like Columbus, Ohio, OC California, NoVA, some Metro areas in Texasand a few other places as well.

But, look at Metro Saint Louis, Kansas City, Minneapolis- St-Paul, Baton Rouge, New Orleans, Nashville, Knoxville, Chattanooga, Columbia, Charleston, Charlotte, Richmond, Louisville, Cincinnati, Kalamazoo, etc... Not to even mention traditionally solidly Democratic bastions in the West Coasts, and Boston.

These areas all swung towards the Democratic Nominee in 2016, in many cases by significant numbers.

It will be interesting to observe if the 2016 trends continue further into 2020, or if this election was just a one time anomaly...

Absolutely not.

2016 turnout was slightly higher than 60%.

2012 turnout was only 58%.

2008 turnout was 62%.

Yeah, I'll get to it some time in the next week.

Great job on the nationwide map! Is there a chance that you could do a map of McMullin's performance in Idaho?

You can really see how Clinton's win in Minnesota was dependent on doing not that bad in the rural areas. If this changes in the future, a strong performance in Minneapolis isn't going to cut it.

I did another write-up, this time about precinct results and urbanization: https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/what-do-dense-trump-areas-look-like-sparse-clinton-areas/

Your articles on precinct level analysis on DDHQ have been excellent!

GG. Congrats. Look below
http://www.spokesman.com/stories/2017/apr/10/washington-state-graduate-designs-map-showing-prec/

Here's Missouri:

() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/16-MO.png)

If this is our local home town guru--- RI much and well deserved kudos from beyond the Atlas Underground into the mainstreaming world of academia and potential private sector employment if those are your wishes in the future...   :) :) :)

I do have to say that these precinct level national maps are the best value ever, and the amount of labor and detail involved in producing these is simply mind blowing---- and Alcon who doesn't chill very often on the Forum anymore was one of the best when it came to maps and precinct level data.

These appear to be the only counties where HRC carried every precinct - did I miss any?

San Juan, WA
Maui, HI
Hawaii, HI
Denver, CO
Pitkin, CO
Lake, CO
Summit, CO
Los Alamos, NM
Guadalupe, NM
Maverick, TX
Zavala, TX
Dimmit, TX
Zapata, TX
Jim Hogg, TX
Brooks. TX
Starr, TX
Sumter, AL
Greene, AL
Macon, AL
Taliaferro, GA
Warren, GA
Cook, MN
Menominee, WI
St. Louis (city), MO
Charlottesville (city), VA
Petersburg (city), VA
Arlington, VA
Alexandria (city), VA
Falls Church (city), VA
Fairfax (city), VA
Washington, DC
Manhattan, NY
Dukes, MA
Nantucket, MA

To add to your list:

Berkshire, MA
Chittenden, VT
Kalawao, HI (lol)
San Francisco, CA

I don't know if there are any more.

And what were the largest counties without a single HRC precinct?

Surprisingly not Utah County, Utah, which had a single Clinton precinct. Otherwise, here are a sampling of the largest I could find:

St. Charles County, Missouri (pop. 360,485)
Jefferson County, Missouri (pop. 218,733)
Williamson County, Tennessee (pop. 202,686)
Clermont County, Ohio (pop. 197,363)
Butler County, Pennsylvania (pop. 183,862)
Livingston County, Michigan (pop. 180,967)
Hernando County, Florida (pop. 173,094)
Johnson County, Texas (pop. 150,934)
Citrus County, Florida (pop. 140,031)
Washington County, Wisconsin (pop. 131,887)
Parker County, Texas (pop. 116,927)

Johnson County, Indiana (pop. 145,545) is another. It's the suburban county south of Indianapolis.

Hey RI, Can you send me the data for Rhode Island? :D

-Chron

http://www.ri.gov/election/results/2016/general_election/data/

I haven't downloaded the data for 2016, but the long-form file download should have what you want.

Thanks a lot!

Crazy to think Obama won Jefferson, MO in 2008.

Missouri seems to be following the trend of The western Mississippi states trending Republican in south-to-north order. Louisiana and then Arkansas and so forth.

Randall County, Texas (pop. 120,725).

The issue with Mission/Mission Hills in Johnson County, KS has been corrected.

Precinct cartogram:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/Carto2016goodAtlas.png)

It's ugly-- so ugly that it's almost beautiful.

()

Realisticidealist - just FYI, looking at Dane County WI on the DDHQ site map, there seems to be a problem calculating the swing in some precincts.

City of Madison 26 has Obama 80-20 and Clinton 71-22, but the swing given is D+30.
City of Madison 76 has Obama 91-8 and Clinton 86-9, but the swing given is D+35.

I don't know whether the issue is local or widespread; these two precincts just jumped out at me since they are areas that would not intuitively swing to Clinton but had a deep blue on the swing map.

Yeah, those are two highly convex precincts which sometimes messes with the calculation as it's based on centroids. Those two should be fixed now.

Any states in particular you'd like to see cartograms of?

Kansas please!

Pennsylvania would be a sight. California too, tho that may be too boring (lots of blue blobs, everywhere).

California:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/CAcarto.png)

Kansas:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/KScarto.png)

Pennsylvania:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/PAcarto.png)

OK, I see - thanks.

Heh. You all know what that looks like...

Washington, please!

Very cool.

Maryland

Oregon.... (of course) ;)

Great job on the cartograms! Massachusetts would be appreciated.

Maryland:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/MDcarto.png)

Massachusetts:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/MAcarto.png)

Missouri:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/MOcarto.png)

Oregon:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/ORcarto.png)

Washington:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/WAcarto.png)

Utah:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/UTcarto.png)

North Carolina?

New Jersey, please.

Interesting how evenly populated Cape Cod is. The cartogram of it barely looks any different from a normal map.

New Jersey:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/NJcarto.png)

North Carolina:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/NCcarto.png)

Georgia!

Virginia baby!

Would like to see NY, Illinois, Florida, and Texas

Florida:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/FLcarto.png)

Georgia:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/GAcarto.png)

Illinois:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/ILcarto.png)

Indiana:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/INcarto.png)

New York:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/NYcarto.png)

Texas:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/TXcarto.png)

Virginia:
() (https://rynerohla.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/06/VAcarto.png)

Nice! Are you going to put together a national map of this?

EDIT: Nevermind you already did

Can you knock out the rest of the midwest next? That's be Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin.

Yep. They say it will be down temporarily. They didn't exactly say how long though.

DDHQ is having trouble paying for hosting now that we're past special election season.

I was just looking through this thread and noticed the red spots in what I believe is the northeastern corner of McDowell County (in southern WV). Any idea why that area voted for Clinton?

The town of Keystone is about 65% black.

Trump Retweeted the Map: https://mobile.twitter.com/Team_Trump45/status/893414461373132800
https://mobile.twitter.com/Team_Trump45/status/893414461373132800

I'm looking at that swing map...how in the hell did GARY of all places swing so hard toward someone like Trump?!

Simple. Gary is very heavily black and many predominantly black areas swung to Trump mainly due to lower turnout. Plus, Gary is still losing population too.

I still can’t get cowlitz county and how small red dot is for Longview.

This is a somewhat random question but is there a version of the national precinct map which shows the boundaries or drawn out borders of the precincts?

I was looking for this list!

Two more:

• Bristol, RI (three townships)
• Ogala Lakota/Shannon, SD

In addition, if we aggregate Alaska precinct data by county-equivalent (https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=282647.0) we have two (neighbouring) Census Areas in the Unorganized Borough where HRC carried every precinct:

• Nome Census Area, AK
• Kusilvak/Wade-Hampton Census Area, AK

It’s remarkable that the largest county in area with no Trump precincts – Hawaii County – should be on a remote island state. The largest in the contiguous US is Cook County, MN – ski resort country – and it’s notable how Cook has became more Democratic than neighbouring counties that were banner McGovern counties in 1972.


Some more with no HRC precincts:

• Benton County, Arkansas (population 258,291) – this is hard to see because there are some resort Democratic areas in highly GOP counties surrounding it
• Santa Rosa County, Florida (population 170,497)
• Sullivan County, Tennessee (population 156,823)
• Randolph County, North Carolina (population 142,358)
• Wilson County, Tennessee (population 132,781)
• Canadian County, Oklahoma (population 129,582)
• Jasper County, Missouri (population 118,596)
• Jefferson County, New York (population 116,229)
• Douglas County, Oregon (population 108,457)

https://decisiondeskhq.com/data-dives/creating-a-national-precinct-map/
This map is amazing has precinct level results for 08,12 and 16 elections. It is also interactive so you know what each candidate got at each one.