Talk Elections

Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion => International Elections => Topic started by: Cynthia on November 14, 2016, 04:55:19 AM



Title: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Cynthia on November 14, 2016, 04:55:19 AM
I was pretty surprised four years ago when Libs won another government. With a less flawed candidate Horgan and the education crisis this should put Neoliberal government to an end?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on November 14, 2016, 10:25:48 AM
I was pretty surprised four years ago when Libs won another government. With a less flawed candidate Horgan and the education crisis this should put Neoliberal government to an end?

You would think :P
The BCNDP is taking a different approach from last election; a more social democratic, solidly progressive plan and Horgan is considered more likable and with zero tarnished rep compared to Dix. About the same number of MLAs on both sides are not running again. This time around there are deeper problems with Education, Transit, Housing and Resources/Energy and government spending/party funding.

Polling this year (normal polling cautions) is mixed; NDP led two and Liberals led two. Polling will be even less reliable then before, here are two polls a month apart:
August:
BCLiberal - 38%
BCNDP - 29%
BCGreen - 16%
BCConservative - 15%

September:
BCNDP - 38%
BCLiberal - 33%
BCGreen - 16%
BCConservative - 14%

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/41st_British_Columbia_general_election


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Cape Verde on November 14, 2016, 10:22:38 PM
Unless NDP leads the polls by more than 15%, I will expect a Liberal victory.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on November 15, 2016, 01:30:09 AM
Unless NDP leads the polls by more than 15%, I will expect a Liberal victory.

I proudly voted for John Horgan when I lived in his district. He is a much better leader for the NDP this time around. 2013 was a huge shocker to me. Hopefully polls are more accurate 2017.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on November 15, 2016, 09:42:19 AM
The BCNDP has proven it can win Liberal ridings, but at By-elections. Thye've had a very hard time retaining those come election time which they need to do.
The BCNDP campaign is already much better from the planning, communicating and policy perspective, so that should help.
The one thing we know is that the Green and Conservative vote is always over-represented in the pre-election polling. They both will drop by realistically half those numbers (Greens have polled 8% in the last two elections) Where the Green vote goes, is usually a good indicator of who will win.

The NDP can win with 40% (1991), the NDP has won the election but lost the popular vote (1996). The liberals have won the last three (2005, 09, 13) with 44-45% and the NDP from 39-42%; the Popular vote Province wide will be close. For the NDP(Liberals too) it will be a game of strategy and targeting about a 15 seats with laser focus in order to win. (they really on need 10)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Harry Hayfield on November 16, 2016, 08:12:34 AM
Have there been any calculations produced of the 2013 election on the new boundaries?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on November 29, 2016, 07:51:27 PM
New Insights West Poll November 21

BC NDP 40% (-)
BC Liberals 39% (+5)
Green 14% (-)
Conservatives 5% (-5)
Other 2% (-)

Link:http://www.insightswest.com/news/housing-still-top-of-mind-as-british-columbians-ponder-political-choices/ (http://www.insightswest.com/news/housing-still-top-of-mind-as-british-columbians-ponder-political-choices/)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 04, 2016, 05:23:36 PM
Before I get into the 2017 BC election, it's worthwhile noting the terrible polling during both the pre-writ and writ period in the 2013 BC election.

Off the bat, Mustel had been considered the pre-eminent pollster in BC for ~ 25 years and has always nailed BC election results. Why? It's a "CATI" pollster - live telephone interview (landline/cell). Unfortunately, Mustel bowed out of the BC political polling scene in 2012 and has remained absent ever since.

So that left the 2013 polling scene dominated by only opt-in online pollsters as well as IVR (robo) pollsters. I have always considered these methodologies just cheap polling junk freebies here in BC.

And how did they do? At the beginning of the campaign, they showed a ~20% BC NDP lead. Opt-in online pollsters Angus Reid and Ipsos Reid had a 8%/9% BC NDP lead in their final respective polls before e-day 2013. And Insights West, in an earlier poll, also corroborated AR/IR results in the same time frame.

IVR pollster Ekos had a 6% BC NDP lead in their final poll and Forum had a 2% lead (best of a bad lot).

That's what fooled everyone during the 2013 BC election campaign sans CATI pollster Mustel.

What's even more interesting are the BC Libs internal 2013 polling numbers during the 4-week writ period. The BC Libs internal pollster utilized CATI polling (again, live telephone interview - landline/cell) for their provincial tracking polls and landline for their 25 targeted riding tracking polls. They also utilized Mandarin, Cantonese, Punjabi, Tagalog, etc. live telephone interviewers to boot. Very expensive stuff but has historically also proven to be quite accurate.

So at the commencement of the 4-week writ period, the BC Lib's internals showed that they were behind by ~7% with a large undecided factor. Within days, Christy Clark's approval numbers exceeded her disapproval numbers and that upward trend continued throughout the campaign. OTOH, then BC NDP leader Dix saw his approval ratings drop with his disapproval ratings increase and that trend continued throughout the 2013 campaign.

Then we get to the 2013 leader's debate and the subsequent "Who won the debate?" polling numbers. The BC Lib's internals had the following:

Clark: 38%
Dix: 21%
Sterk (Green): 6%
Cummins (Dix): 3%

Interesting to contrast the same night's internal BC Lib poll numbers to those of opt-in online pollster Ipsos Reid - a completely different story:

Dix: 35%
Clark: 30%
Sterk: 10%
Cummins: 3%

By Friday, 4-days before Tuesday e-day, 2013, the BC Libs had already projected 48 ridings won - they actually won 49. And their final Sunday night provincial tracking numbers:

BC Lib: 43.6%
BC NDP: 37.8%
BC Greens: 8%
BC Cons: 4.7%
Ind./Other: 5.9%

[Source: BC internal pollster on internal polling numbers (with charts) at Manning Centre symposium on YouTube]

Pretty well bang-on. And that's the value of very expensive/accurate CATI polling.

Since 2012, and prior to the 2013 BC election, no publicly released CATI poll of BC politics has been released except for a rare one about 3 months ago - the Innovative Research poll (CATI - landline/cell) with these results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 29%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 15%
Other: 2%

Also interesting to note that the BC Libs internal pollster had a similar 15% BC Con vote in their internal numbers at the start of the 2013 writ period. What he later found was that 5% had brand confusion federally, another 5% parked with the BC Cons as they were pissed at BC Libs until they realized their vote may result in NDP gov't, while the remaining 5% actually were Con voters.

In any event, i suspect that the 2017 BC campaign will again be dominated by the usual opt-in online panel pollsters (Insights West/Ipsos Reid) and the IVR (robo) pollsters (Mainstreet, Forum, Ekos, etc.).

Funnily enough, when the Mainstreet poll came out a few weeks ago showing the BC NDP leading by ~5%, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer, Province political columnist Mike Smyth, and Global TV political affairs Keith Baldrey all reported that they were told by BC Lib strategists/insiders that they were "happy" with those results showing the BC NDP in the lead and looked forward to more of same.

Irrespective of the BC Libs own current internal polling showing different numbers, I suspect that they want the public to see a BC NDP lead in order to avoid complacency. Interesting.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 04, 2016, 06:50:27 PM
Now to the lead-up to the May, 2017 election and the respective parties:

BC Libs:

- BC currently has the highest growth rate in Canada;
- BC also has the lowest unemployment rate in Canada as well as the highest job growth over the previous 12-month period;
- just came out last week that BC's budget surplus will be $2.24 billion for the current fiscal year (does any other province in Canada even have a surplus?)
- also the 2nd/3rd lowest overall taxation rate in Canada;

Those are very tough nuts to crack for any opposition party and the BC Libs will run on those narratives. Additionally, the BC Libs will be positioning the BC NDP as "Dr. No" in terms of opposing resource development projects and the blue collar worker.

They have nominated some very high profile candidates and are near 70/87 riding nomination completions. And the media is also reporting that they have an "army of volunteers" and have been holding field organizing schools all over BC. Akin to a military machine.

Finally, as Keith Baldrey reported, while outside the writ period the BC Libs do not conduct province-wide polling... they do conduct riding tracking polls of currently held seats and potential pick-up seats. According to Baldrey, the BC Libs "have a healthy lead" in most of their current seats.

BC Cons:

In 2013, they had a high profile and a somewhat credible leader in John Cummins who was also at the 2013 leader's debate. After the 2013 BC election, they elected a no-name called Dan Brooks who later stepped down earlier this year due to internal party lawsuits. He then decided to run as leader again and narrowly won the September, 2016 BC Con leadership convention. A few weeks later the BC Con board of directors disqualified him. Bizarre. The BC Cons now have fringe party status, no leader, have continued internal in-fighting/lawsuits and are broke. I even doubt that they will be running candidates in 2017.

BC NDP:

- Keith Baldrey has reported that the BC NDP's membership is at an all-time low and that the party itself is running a deficit every month in order to keep operations going. Party donations are also dwindling.

- BC NDP leader John Horgan seems to be invisible in the media and is deliberately eschewing the BC media. Very strange strategy. He sets himself up to be "defined" by the BC Libs before he is able to define himself - straight out of the handbook from former MB NDP strategist Michael Balagus.

- Horgan has also publicly stated that education will be his number one issue during the campaign. Problem is that over the years, and even last week, education has only been a "Top of Mind" issue for 4% - 5% of the electorate.

- The BC NDP also looks to have it's most left-wing platform in 2017 since pre-1972 with massive annual program spending increases... eg. a $1.5 - $2 billion/annum $10 day child care.

- In terms of candidate nominations they are also very far behind, not only the Liberals, compared to the pre-2013 election. Also have noticed that turnout at BC NDP nomination contests has also plummeted in many ridings compared to 2013. To wit, a contested nomination meeting saw 80 turnout last week compared to 192 in the same riding back in November, 2012.

BTW, back in 2013, the BC Libs used an effective "weather-vane" TV ad against then BC NDP leader in terms of his flip-flop against the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning - cost the BC NDP popular vote share seats in interior BC and Metro Vancouver. Even the BC NDP's internal prognosis of what went wrong with their 2013 campaign pointed to the "Kinder Morgan" flip-flop.

Lo and behold, the BC Libs have released another TV election ad yesterday on the exact same theme - this time regarding BC NDP leader Horgan:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHPi2wFlUDs

BC Greens:

- Back in 2013, the BC Greens were a fringe party led by the lacklustre Jane Sterk - no media exposure at all.

- Complete change for this election cycle. Incumbent BC Green MLA/leader Andrew Weaver is apparently highly regarded and receives considerable media exposure - esp. on Van Isle with CHEK-TV, C-FAX radio, and the Victoria Times Colonist;

- Weaver is positioning the BC Greens as both federal "red" Liberals and "consistent" in their policies.

- Even more startling is that the BC Greens are recruiting much higher profile candidates this time than even the BC NDP in the same ridings. Have never seen that before.

- Media pundits also have suggested that Weaver will "likely win" the 2017 BC election leader's debate. If that happens, could potentially result in more media exposure and momentum for the BC Greens.

2017 Election Outcome:

With redistribution, another 2 seats have been added to the BC legislature - Richmond-Queensborough and Surrey South. Both are suburban Metro Vancouver ridings and, with 2013 transposed results, would be considered "safe" BC Lib seats. Based upon transposed results, not much change to the rest of the BC ridings in terms of outcomes.

And with the BC Cons essentially on life-support or even dead, I doubt that they will be running any candidates in 2017. We'll see. In any event, three ridings (Skeena, Burnaby-Lougheed, Stikine) won by the BC NDP in 2013 would have likely flipped to the BC Libs without the BC Con candidates pulling vote share. Data suggests that where BC Con candidates ran in 2009 but not in 2013.. the 2009 BC Con vote went almost entirely BC Lib in 2013.

So right there... it appears that the BC Libs are already up by 5 seats heading into the 2017 campaign.

And based upon current data, riding demographics, candidates, likely political narratives, party leaders, etc., etc. my guess right now on the outcome of the 2017 BC election:

BC Lib: 55 - 65 seats;
BC NDP: 20 - 25 seats;
BC Greens: 1 - 5 seats;

Of course, the foregoing is subject to change as we head into May, 2017.

My analytical 2 cents.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on December 04, 2016, 07:54:21 PM
(does any other province in Canada even have a surplus?)

Quebec has a surplus (and tons of cancelled trials due to a shortage of judges and attorneys and an healthcare system in shambles, because government cut very deep to get that surplus).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 04, 2016, 08:00:20 PM
I doubt the BC Cons will be nominating *no* candidates at all--at worst, as in the past, they'll have a few to keep the party affiliation ticking until whatever time.  (Maybe they'll be like Socred in 1996.)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on December 04, 2016, 08:16:26 PM
Oh good, Lotuslander is back. Didn't read his posts; Let me guess, he is predicting an 85-2 Liberal landslide?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on December 05, 2016, 07:45:52 AM
It should be noted that last year "Lotuslander" posted an endless posting about why there was absolutely no chance whatsoever that the BC NDP could win the byelection in Coquitlam Burke Mountain. The NDP won the byelection. He also went on ad nauseous in the last federal election about how the NDP was doomed DOOMED to be reduced to just six seats in BC. They won 14 seats even as they did worse than expected in the country as a whole.

Caveat emptor


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 05, 2016, 08:16:55 AM
*And* when he was proven wrong, Lotuslander gave the Trump-ian "the other side cheated" alibi.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 05, 2016, 12:11:26 PM
Wow. Tough crowd here. Full of factually incorrect statements as well as ad hominems to boot. If ya wanna refute my analysis with data/evidence/facts... then do so.

I guess I will give the last word to long-time Global BCTV political analyst Keith Baldrey:

Quote
The recent week-long summer sitting of the legislature was another reminder that the biggest challenge the B.C. Liberals are facing in their re-election bid may be complacency.

The biggest threat to the party’s hold on government is that those voters simply stay home next spring, thinking the election outcome is in the bag.

Certainly, even NDP MLAs let slip a couple of times during that week-long session about how the B.C. Liberals were going to address a public policy after the spring election – prophesies based on an assumed B.C. Liberal victory.

Adding to the government side’s optimism is the fact that the B.C. Liberal party is awash in tons of cash, while the NDP faces ongoing and very serious financial challenges.

Unlike in 2013, when an apparent looming NDP victory convinced the business community to fork over some major dough to the party, nothing remotely like that is happening this time around. The party is having serious fundraising troubles (it apparently runs a significant operating deficit each month) and party membership is very low. As for the B.C. Liberals, meanwhile, the party’s own internal tracking polls apparently show it enjoys healthy leads in pretty well every riding it currently holds (the party doesn’t do province-wide polling; just the seats that are deemed winnable).

The B.C. Liberal party seems to be in perpetual motion: nominating candidates at a steady pace and raising money at an even quicker pace.

The party employs a number of full-time field organizers, who have been working those potentially “winnable” ridings almost since the last campaign finished.

Throw in the fact that the provincial economy is humming along, plus the historical fact that the so-called “free enterprise coalition” has never lost an election in more than 40 years unless that coalition splits the vote, and a picture of near-invincibility starts to emerge.

http://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/opinion-watch-out-for-complacency-1.2320354#sthash.VxiDW8E7.4ycIo7Eu.dpuf



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on December 05, 2016, 06:08:17 PM
It should be noted that last year "Lotuslander" posted an endless posting about why there was absolutely no chance whatsoever that the BC NDP could win the byelection in Coquitlam Burke Mountain. The NDP won the byelection. He also went on ad nauseous in the last federal election about how the NDP was doomed DOOMED to be reduced to just six seats in BC. They won 14 seats even as they did worse than expected in the country as a whole.

Caveat emptor

And he didn't pay off his bet after losing to me.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 05, 2016, 06:43:11 PM
Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

In any event, why is this thread attracting so many flakes? Either nothing relevant to add or no understanding of BC politics and if there is any... it's at a kindergarten level.

Just look at Tender Branson over at the Austria thread, for example. Always brilliant analysis. Nothing flaky about him irrespective of his political leanings.

Now for some more corroborative analysis of the current BC political scene by a fella by the name of Bernard von Schulmann (respected and well known in political circles) who has been involved in the BC political scene for over 2 decades. A self-described "centrist environmentalist" who has been involved with the BC NDP, BC Libs, and then the BC Greens until recently.

A good"on the ground" analysis of all 4 BC political parties. Worth the listen:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtVl0mDfn1w (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XtVl0mDfn1w)







Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 05, 2016, 10:27:59 PM
Ah, Lotuslander: the Mansplainer-in-Chief of BC political psephology.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 06, 2016, 12:56:53 AM
Ah, Lotuslander: the Mansplainer-in-Chief of BC political psephology.


Hey... completely overwhelmed by your political prognostication and incessant political analysis. BTW, BC NDP has a chief strategist spot available now on Craigslist. Interested? :D


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 06, 2016, 01:16:50 AM
As a sidebar, for the first time in its history, the unionized BC Buildings Trades invited Shirley Bond, BC Lib Minister of Jobs, Tourism, and Skills Training and Minister Responsible for Labour to its annual convention earlier this year. Widely reported in the BC media and she received a standing ovation. Again. Unheard of. Moreover, the unionized BC Building Trades also invited Bond to speak at the national convention of the unionized building trades.

Moreover, the United Steelworkers (unaffiliated with the BCBT) also has apparent internal dissent with the BC NDP. A leaked internal memo analyzing same as follows:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/308880372/Steelworker-Memo

Very revealing internal matters.

So why is the foregoing happening? The BC NDP, from their perspective, has thrown the unionized blue collar worker under the bus - esp. the BC interior with its resource industries.  Essentially the BC NDP has been hijacked by hard-core enviro elements within Van City proper and on Van Isle. Furthemore, the BC NDP/BC NDP MLAs are spooked by the Weaver led Green Party in terms of the 2017 election.

Unfortunately, no road to a win (on a seat basis) under those circumstances.

PS. See that alot of ON folk post in this thread. Imagine if the ON NDP was led by hard-core T.O. enviros that would reject the proposed mining development of the northern ON "Ring of Fire"? What do you imagine the outcome of those currently ON NDP held seats in the next ON election would be? Get my drift?

PPS. At the end of the political day... with folk worried about their livelihoods, the narrative always reverts to "It's the economy, stupid".


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on December 06, 2016, 09:02:03 AM
Union support is layered for the NDP and not guaranteed in BC, anywhere for that matter.  Just look at the last federal, some unions were strategic (vote to replace Harper) others were pro-NDP.
BC Building Trades and the Steelworkers are dominated by construction jobs, they are being lured in by Kinder Morgan and Site C. with the NDP taking an opposition to those proposals that is going to cause friction. But to say this is throwing the blue-collar workers under the bus is not true since you totally discount the fact the the NDP is planning a massive investment in infrastructure that they estimate could create 43K jobs.

The BC Federation of Labour is actively and aggressively going to campaign for the NDP:
http://thetyee.ca/News/2016/12/01/BC-Fed-Campaign-to-Elect-NDP/

Horgan is trying to balance big ideas that benefit workers like raising the minimum wage (which Seattle's experience is showing is a true success) and public childcare with job creation and more bread and butter affordability issues
http://thetyee.ca/News/2016/11/30/Horgan-Appeals-To-Workers/

I can't really comment on the NDP being taken over by enviro's but the BC greens are a serious threat, and that relates to my comment above about the balance. BUT I don't think that someone like Craig Keating could be described as a hard-core enviro? he seems rather the moderate type.

In ON last election, the party's lack of big ideas, bolder plans, bolder progressive ideas (it was more populist progressive then truely social democratic) cost the party 3 seats in Toronto. The balance was not there last election so while the party won 3 seats outside of TO they lost 3 in the city... and potential other urban areas.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on December 06, 2016, 12:44:37 PM
Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

I did no such thing.  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is a troll.  Seriously, why has he not been banned from this forum?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 06, 2016, 10:13:07 PM
Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

I did no such thing.  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is a troll.  Seriously, why has he not been banned from this forum?

Because you remind him of his figurative ex-wife who bankrupted him on (to him) frivolous "abuse" charges.  And if the system wasn't "rigged" on her behalf, he surely would have prevailed, as surely as the non-vote-split Free Enterprise Coalition prevails in BC.  Get the picture?

(Hey, I wouldn't say that if he weren't so prone to using that "mansplaining" tone)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 09, 2016, 01:06:48 AM
Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

I did no such thing.  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is a troll.  Seriously, why has he not been banned from this forum?

Sorry. You are nothing but a lying flake. Period. As a matter of fact an NDP troll. Nothing analytical to provide in this thread. How come?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 09, 2016, 01:09:59 AM
Very deceitful Adam T. And I mean VERY. You rebuffed the bet... which ya conveniently forget.

I did no such thing.  You still owe me $1,000.

Lotuslander is a troll.  Seriously, why has he not been banned from this forum?

Because you remind him of his figurative ex-wife who bankrupted him on (to him) frivolous "abuse" charges.  And if the system wasn't "rigged" on her behalf, he surely would have prevailed, as surely as the non-vote-split Free Enterprise Coalition prevails in BC.  Get the picture?

(Hey, I wouldn't say that if he weren't so prone to using that "mansplaining" tone)

And we also have "adma" who is nothing more than another NDP troll.. this time from Ontario... 3 time zones away. Again... providing nothing analytically useful to this thread. Don't understand why both you and "Adam T" are not both banned for violating/breaking clear forum policy/rules.

BTW, "Dumb and Dumber" has always been my fave flick. ;)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 09, 2016, 01:25:01 AM

BC Building Trades and the Steelworkers are dominated by construction jobs, they are being lured in by Kinder Morgan and Site C. with the NDP taking an opposition to those proposals that is going to cause friction.

I will let the words of a defeated BC NDP MLA, in the aftermath of the 2013 BC election, speak to that:

Quote
“The real kicker was Kinder Morgan,” he said frankly, referring to an announcement made by party leader Adrian Dix during the campaign that an NDP government would block the proposed expansion of a heavy oil pipeline between Alberta and Burnaby.

“When the announcement about the Kinder Morgan pipeline was made, it basically decimated Interior and northern B.C. for us — rural B.C. basically,” he said.

“You can’t be against (Enbridge’s) Northern Gateway, you can’t be against Site C, you can’t be against Kinder Morgan and all of that because the message from the blue-collar worker is: ‘Those are my jobs. I’m in construction, I need that job’,” he continued, saying the Kinder Morgan announcement became a powerful symbol of the NDP’s opposition to massive economic development projects.

“The blue-collar worker virtually abandoned the NDP in this election, mostly by staying at home,” he said, adding he estimates as many as 3,000 people who voted for him in previous elections stayed away this time.

Quote
But to say this is throwing the blue-collar workers under the bus is not true since you totally discount the fact the the NDP is planning a massive investment in infrastructure that they estimate could create 43K jobs.

Off the bat, the private sector creates jobs. Not government. Period. The government just provides the fiscal, taxation, regulatory, etc. regime for the private sector to make the capital investments to provide that employment.

Look, I follow every BC political party to a "T" in all facets on a daily basis. Frankly, I have no idea what you are referring to in terms of "43,000" jobs to be created by the BC NDP in terms of infrastructure. BTW, I am a BC infrastructure junkie  as well... highways, bridges, rapid transit, hospitals, schools, universities, water treatment, wastewater management, etc., etc.

Ergo, I am all ears to the "43,000" new government funded infrastructure jobs that ya describe. ;)




Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 09, 2016, 02:01:10 AM
Regarding the recent Kinder Morgan decision.

A November, 2016 Abacus Data opinion poll - Interestingly enough, in a question therein involving renewable energy as well as a new oil pipeline to access new markets via the coast... these were BC's numbers:

Support: 42%
Accept: 36%
Oppose: 22%

()

22% of BCers are in opposition - some suspect the hemp commerce, granola bar eatin', singing Kumbaya crowd.

PS. Over the years, Insights West has also had a ~21% "strongly opposed" to the KM pipeline. Abacus Data basically corroborates same. Again, a vocal enviro crowd has taken over the BC NDP.

PS. Long time BC political analyst for Global BCTV recently tweeted the following in terms of the foregoing Abacus opinion poll:

Quote
Keith Baldrey ‏@keithbaldrey  Dec 7
Keith Baldrey

Seems a tad high, but still indication of a strong majority backing pipelines.

And to those that oppose KM, his take on how they will place their vote:

Quote
Keith Baldrey ‏@keithbaldrey  Dec 7
Keith Baldrey

I suspect more likely Green.

And that's with the BC NDP now opposing KM. Just gotta love BC politics. Always entertaining. No doubt. :)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on December 09, 2016, 04:01:57 PM
Well, such results are normal with such a loaded question.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 09, 2016, 10:28:11 PM

And we also have "adma" who is nothing more than another NDP troll.. this time from Ontario... 3 time zones away. Again... providing nothing analytically useful to this thread. Don't understand why both you and "Adam T" are not both banned for violating/breaking clear forum policy/rules.

BTW, "Dumb and Dumber" has always been my fave flick. ;)

Actually, I'm not an NDP troll except insofar as *anybody* who, to you, is charitable t/w the NDP and willing to give them the benefit of the doubt (at least as a serious component of our viable electoral-choice network) is, in your eyes, a troll.  In fact, I think of myself as more of an all-around psephological sensualist--and as such, I have every right to be interested and even willing to perform constructive advice and observation on elections not in my own territory.  And even to read meaningful between-the-lines data in seemingly boring "slam-dunk" constituencies a la the recent federal Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner byelection.  Stuff that *is* analytically useful, even if I'm several time zones away.

For you see, at its best, "analytically useful" transcends partisan bias.  Just as in Medicine Hat; whatever our individual partisanship,  it's boring to deem the result "boring".  Polling maps and polling data are fun, even when the race *appears* on the surface to be ho-hum.

By comparison, from what I can tell--you're not interested in that kind of stuff.  You're offering *political* arguments; you're not offering *electoral* arguments; you're not allowing for any nuances or wiggle room, and especially if they go against your theorems.

So, if you're attacking me for being an Ontarian, may I counter-attack *you* for being *disinterested* in Ontario.  And I speak from a realm where with exceptions (most notably the Rae interlude), the NDP's tended to be even *more* terminally-third-party marginal.  Yet...elections, poll-by-poll numbers and all, are interesting here, too.  So, why aren't you interested?  Why are you so constipated?  Why'd you rather stick to BC, and *just* to BC--and even doing BC an injustice by simplifying the tableau to fit your case?

I mean, under the circumstance, you might as well be suggesting the author of this piece has no right to speak on behalf of BC's modern heritage (Erickson homes et al) because he's from Ontario.
http://www.treehugger.com/sustainable-product-design/another-one-bites-the-dust-ericksons-graham-house.html


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on December 10, 2016, 08:52:04 AM

And we also have "adma" who is nothing more than another NDP troll.. this time from Ontario... 3 time zones away. Again... providing nothing analytically useful to this thread. Don't understand why both you and "Adam T" are not both banned for violating/breaking clear forum policy/rules.

BTW, "Dumb and Dumber" has always been my fave flick. ;)

Actually, I'm not an NDP troll except insofar as *anybody* who, to you, is charitable t/w the NDP and willing to give them the benefit of the doubt (at least as a serious component of our viable electoral-choice network) is, in your eyes, a troll.  In fact, I think of myself as more of an all-around psephological sensualist--and as such, I have every right to be interested and even willing to perform constructive advice and observation on elections not in my own territory.  And even to read meaningful between-the-lines data in seemingly boring "slam-dunk" constituencies a la the recent federal Medicine Hat-Cardston-Warner byelection.  Stuff that *is* analytically useful, even if I'm several time zones away.

For you see, at its best, "analytically useful" transcends partisan bias.  Just as in Medicine Hat; whatever our individual partisanship,  it's boring to deem the result "boring".  Polling maps and polling data are fun, even when the race *appears* on the surface to be ho-hum.

By comparison, from what I can tell--you're not interested in that kind of stuff.  You're offering *political* arguments; you're not offering *electoral* arguments; you're not allowing for any nuances or wiggle room, and especially if they go against your theorems.

So, if you're attacking me for being an Ontarian, may I counter-attack *you* for being *disinterested* in Ontario.  And I speak from a realm where with exceptions (most notably the Rae interlude), the NDP's tended to be even *more* terminally-third-party marginal.  Yet...elections, poll-by-poll numbers and all, are interesting here, too.  So, why aren't you interested?  Why are you so constipated?  Why'd you rather stick to BC, and *just* to BC--and even doing BC an injustice by simplifying the tableau to fit your case?

I mean, under the circumstance, you might as well be suggesting the author of this piece has no right to speak on behalf of BC's modern heritage (Erickson homes et al) because he's from Ontario.
http://www.treehugger.com/sustainable-product-design/another-one-bites-the-dust-ericksons-graham-house.html

My advice: Don't feed the trolls. 

I usually believe in only speaking for myself, but I suspect that most people here have Lotuslander on Ignore.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 10, 2016, 07:49:07 PM
My advice: Don't feed the trolls. 

I usually believe in only speaking for myself, but I suspect that most people here have Lotuslander on Ignore.

I wouldn't say that; more like, most people don't give enough of a whozis to put him (or *anyone*, for that matter) on Ignore.  I mean, *I* don't have anyone on Ignore--that tactic's for wimps.  Yet at the same time, "wimpy" is just as well descriptive of Lotuslander's labelling of myself as an NDP troll.

And again, for all his bombastic claims of his "knowing" BC politics, I still have this inkling Lotuslander's gotten into hot water over "dirty tricks", and is basically using this forum as the last anonymous refuge of a scoundrel, getting back at those who "wronged" him or "set him up"...


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on December 11, 2016, 02:18:57 AM
My advice: Don't feed the trolls. 

I usually believe in only speaking for myself, but I suspect that most people here have Lotuslander on Ignore.

I wouldn't say that; more like, most people don't give enough of a whozis to put him (or *anyone*, for that matter) on Ignore.  I mean, *I* don't have anyone on Ignore--that tactic's for wimps.  Yet at the same time, "wimpy" is just as well descriptive of Lotuslander's labelling of myself as an NDP troll.

And again, for all his bombastic claims of his "knowing" BC politics, I still have this inkling Lotuslander's gotten into hot water over "dirty tricks", and is basically using this forum as the last anonymous refuge of a scoundrel, getting back at those who "wronged" him or "set him up"...

I don't agree that removing the comments from trolls is wimpy.  It just saves me a bit of time.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 11, 2016, 10:22:12 AM
I don't agree that removing the comments from trolls is wimpy.  It just saves me a bit of time.

I'd rather the mods do it (if required) than to do it myself.  Or else, do so passively by avoiding forums/contexts where high-volume macho-preening trollism rules (i.e. newspaper comment threads, Twitter, etc--even some of the Banzaii-shouting US-election threads on this site).  And always remember that the problem isn't in the bias, it's in the devil-may-care mediocrity of expression

And that said, keeping to the topic of this thread, I wouldn't go *too* far in countering some of Lotuslander's basic facts; that given BCs electoral history and the overall nature of its electorate, it's not wise to *overstate* the degree of toxic-option hatred that Christy Clark engenders, and especially in an era when things have been looking iffy-underperformance for the NDP nationwide (most recently the Yukon election, which many were predicting "confidently" that the NDP would win).  The thing is, I wouldn't subscribe to Lotuslander's "NDP = my alimony-grubbing b*tch of an ex-wife" hyperbolic tone, either.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 11, 2016, 12:53:20 PM
I see the ON NDP trolling flakes at it again... posting extraneous or off-topic messages.... akin to a rogue Jehovah's Witness sect. Too funny.

Not one relevant posting on the BC election.  Must be in their genes.

Alrighty then. Back to the BC election.

Yesterday, Forum Research (IVR pollster) conducted its first opinion poll in the aftermath of the Kinder Morgan decision with the BC results as follows (with change from previous months in brackets):

Lib: 36% (-7%)
Con: 35% (+2%)
Green: 14% (+4%)
NDP: 13% (+-0%)

Looks like the fed Greens received a small bounce out of the KM decision in BC by taking the anti-pipeline vote. Logically one would also think that the fed NDP would as well - They didn't.

Yeah, it's Forum. Yeah it's IVR. But still...

BTW, the KM decision was on November 30, 2016 while Forum was in the field one week later on December 6 - 7, 2016.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/e11dd084-82dd-40c6-a969-5ef1c2207675Fed%20Horserace%20Release%202016%2012%2008(JC)_AM.pdf


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 11, 2016, 12:57:13 PM
Have analyzed all 87 BC ridings... but I will zero in on just one Van Isle provincial seat for 2017 (5 similar provincial seats/dynamics on Van Isle).

And that riding is Cowichan Valley. 2013 results:

BC NDP: 40.1%
BC Lib: 34.9%
BC Green: 19.2%
BC Con: 4.6%

This seat has always been a BC NDP stronghold historically.

Now the BC Cons are leaderless and won't have a leader for the first time, during a BC election, since the year 1903. Along with infighting and internal party lawsuits as well as the fact that the BC Cons are insolvent, I doubt that they will even run any candidates in 2017 since the 1903 election as well.

With data to suggest that former BC Con voters would almost en masse vote BC Lib (Kootenay East in 2009/2013 is a good example), the BC Libs would have likely taken the BC Con vote here in 2013, which would have resulted in a very marginal BC NDP (40.1%) to BC Lib (39.5%) win in 2013 - a slim 0.6% margin.

Now incumbent BC NDP MLA Bill Routley has stepped down and it will be an open seat without any "incumbent effect". Honestly, I think Routley saw the writing on the wall and stepped down as a result.

As well, I know for a fact that both the BC Greens and BC Libs are targeting this seat. The BC Greens have a strong 19.2% base to already start out with:

BC Greens: running high profile Area B Director for the Cowichan Valley Regional District Sonia Furstenau. Sonia Furstenau has received major media coverage over the past few years involving the Shawnigan Lake fiasco;

BC Libs: running 2013 candidate Steve Housser (former CBC TV reporter) and they have already been on the ground campaigning on the doorsteps;

BC NDP: nomination meeting in January and 4 candidates in running - local fed NDP riding prez, local NDP constituency association official, another NDP-linked candidate as well as a fourth;

Nevertheless, the BC Greens Furstenau is the highest profile candidate running in that riding and is also running on a major issue in the riding. And unlike the 2013 fringe BC Greens under invisible Jane Sterk, Weaver always grabs the media spotlight. And again, some media pundits expect Weaver to "win" the 2017 leader's debate, which will result in big "mo" and media attention for the BC Greens.

With other "CATI" data points that I have seen as well, even six months out I cannot see the BC NDP holding the riding of Cowichan Valley in 2017.

I highly suspect that either the BC Greens or BC Libs will take this seat in 2017. Again, overall 5 seats akin to the Cowichan Valley dynamics are extant on Van Isle, which is still always a harder region to predict seats for than either BC's interior or Metro Vancouver.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 11, 2016, 01:28:08 PM
Speaking of the Kinder Morgan pipeline decision, here's an interesting juxtaposition from Friday: AB NDP preem Notley with her chief of staff Brian Topp. Back during the 2013 BC election, Brian Topp was the then BC NDP campaign manager and part of the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" with then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix. Of course, the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" killed the BC NDP in interior BC and Metro Vancouver in terms of lost seats/popular vote share.

Yet here is Topp meeting about KM with BC preem Clark in a completely reversed role... this time with a pro-KM position:

()



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 11, 2016, 04:53:43 PM
I see the ON NDP trolling flakes at it again... posting extraneous or off-topic messages.... akin to a rogue Jehovah's Witness sect. Too funny.

It's no more "ON NDP trolling talk" than my earlier extraneous/off-topic posted link was "non-West Van modernist hysterical preservationist talk".  Okay?

(In related news, I guess this'd be your cup of tea... https://www.thestar.com/life/homes/2016/12/10/windsor-area-custom-renovation-in-time-for-christmas.html )


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 11, 2016, 09:59:55 PM
And again, to be fair, Lotuslander...in many respects, my position re BC electoral prospects is significantly *closer* to yours than Adam T's position is.  In fact, if you want proof, look back to a serious argument I had with him around the beginning of the year re the likeability-or-unlikeability, far-right-or-moderation, electability-or-non-electability of Christy Clark--it certainly wasn't NDP-shill talk on my part.

However, I also made a point of striking a "disinterested observer" position, because, well, I'm *not* in any explicit political camp.  In fact, I haven't actually actively worked for any party or candidate in at least a decade.  Therefore, I'm shilling for neither the NDP nor for Christy Clark--it helps me to be an agile "free-of-mind" electoral witness.

By comparison, what you're doing is shilling, and it compromises your tone of observation.  And in fact, it's counter-productive insofar as I'm actually *embarassed* to be, if not bullish, at least "bullish-allowance" re BCLiberal prospects or BCNDP non-prospects, because you're likely to go all blowhard "see?  I was right!"
To which I respond...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMaUBeaiHnQ


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Orthogonian Society Treasurer on December 12, 2016, 06:08:01 AM
Speaking of the Kinder Morgan pipeline decision, here's an interesting juxtaposition from Friday: AB NDP preem Notley with her chief of staff Brian Topp. Back during the 2013 BC election, Brian Topp was the then BC NDP campaign manager and part of the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" with then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix. Of course, the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" killed the BC NDP in interior BC and Metro Vancouver in terms of lost seats/popular vote share.

Yet here is Topp meeting about KM with BC preem Clark in a completely reversed role... this time with a pro-KM position:

()



damn girl christy clark is lowkey thicc


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on December 12, 2016, 10:28:56 AM
There is an obvious key difference on Kinder Morgan in 2013 compared to today. in 2013 Alberta was ruled by a rabidly rightwing government that was denying that climate change existed and boasted about doing absolutely NOTHING to reduce GHG emissions and the federal Harper government at the time was singing from the same songbook. Today Alberta is in the forefront of the most aggressive measures to combat climate change in Canada.

Its interesting to speculate on what would have happened if the even more climate-change denying Wildrose Party had won the 2015 Alberta election on a platform of defiantly doing NOTHING and wanting to build smokestacks to the moon - Ayn Rand style. Does anyone think there is any chance that the Trudeau government would even consider approving pipelines from Alberta to sea if the province was led by climate change deniers?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on December 12, 2016, 12:19:53 PM
in 2013 Alberta was ruled by a rabidly rightwing government that was denying that climate change existed and boasted about doing absolutely NOTHING to reduce GHG emissions and the federal Harper government at the time was singing from the same songbook.

I have to take exception to that claim. Alberta's PC government enacted the Specified Gas Emitters Regulation in 2007, which was the first substantive government action to put a price on carbon in North America. While the SGER was certainly not nearly as effective as measures like the BC carbon tax, the claim that Alberta blatantly denied climate change and boasted about taking no action is 100% false.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on December 12, 2016, 01:27:01 PM
OK fair enough, but the PCs policies on climate change were very very very minimal and would never have been enough to give Trudeau the "fig leaf" he needed to be able to approve KM...unless of course you think that had Prentice won the 2015 as expected he would have pulled an "only Nixon could go to China" move and introduced an aggressive climate change plan himself that would have been much like what the Alberta NDP ended up doing. i have my doubts.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on December 12, 2016, 03:31:20 PM
And again, to be fair, Lotuslander...in many respects, my position re BC electoral prospects is significantly *closer* to yours than Adam T's position is.  In fact, if you want proof, look back to a serious argument I had with him around the beginning of the year re the likeability-or-unlikeability, far-right-or-moderation, electability-or-non-electability of Christy Clark--it certainly wasn't NDP-shill talk on my part.

However, I also made a point of striking a "disinterested observer" position, because, well, I'm *not* in any explicit political camp.  In fact, I haven't actually actively worked for any party or candidate in at least a decade.  Therefore, I'm shilling for neither the NDP nor for Christy Clark--it helps me to be an agile "free-of-mind" electoral witness.

By comparison, what you're doing is shilling, and it compromises your tone of observation.  And in fact, it's counter-productive insofar as I'm actually *embarassed* to be, if not bullish, at least "bullish-allowance" re BCLiberal prospects or BCNDP non-prospects, because you're likely to go all blowhard "see?  I was right!"
To which I respond...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BMaUBeaiHnQ

I'm not sure what you're referring to.  The only thing I recall is the I called, which I still believe, that Christy Clark is a narcissist who has no interest in public policy other than to the degree that it gets her into the spotlight.  She is an absolutely terrible and completely phony person.  Though, as I believe I also wrote at the time, a lot of people say that she can also be a genuinely nice person in personal dealings.

I don't recall writing how I thought that would play into the next election or into the NDP's chances of winning the next election.

Edit:  I may also have written that if the NDP can't win under these circumstances, the party leaders need to seriously rethink the continued existence of the Provincial NDP.  I also stand by that.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 12, 2016, 09:11:14 PM
There is an obvious key difference on Kinder Morgan in 2013 compared to today.

Only difference is that the BC media is pitting the KM matter as a battle between the BC NDP v. the AB NDP, which can confuse voters on the NDP "brand" vis-a-vis KM.

And Horgan's inconsistent positions on KM (along with many other resource developments) will obviously be played by the BC Libs as a "symbol" in terms of jobs/economy akin to the 2013 campaign.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHPi2wFlUDs

Just today, former BC NDP premier Dan Miller came out in the Vancouver Sun:

Quote
Opinion: NDP must learn that you can sell oil and protect the environment

DAN MILLER

Published on: December 12, 2016

As a former premier of B.C. and a member of the New Democratic Party for 50 years, I strongly support the federal government’s decision to approve the twinning of the Trans Mountain Pipeline.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/opinion-ndp-must-learn-that-you-can-sell-oil-and-protect-the-environment

Akin to the 2013 campaign, it appears that the BC NDP fears the Greens in inner Van City proper and southern Van Isle so much (to protect their incumbents) that they have basically written off interior BC and much of Metro Vancouver. Again.

BC Green leader Weaver has been all over the airwaves with his anti-KM message... major Van City talk/news station CKNW, CBC radio, Victoria's CHEK-TV, and on and on the list goes. Weaver is known to be a media hound. Horgan? All quiet. Just don't get it.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 12, 2016, 09:32:20 PM
I'm not sure what you're referring to.  The only thing I recall is the I called, which I still believe, that Christy Clark is a narcissist who has no interest in public policy other than to the degree that it gets her into the spotlight.  She is an absolutely terrible and completely phony person.  Though, as I believe I also wrote at the time, a lot of people say that she can also be a genuinely nice person in personal dealings.

But you see, it's those kinds of characterizations (or for that matter, DL's characterization of Alberta's past "rabidly rightwing government") that fuel the sneers of a Lotuslander.  He gets his jollies out of beating the cr@p out of candy-a$$ wimps like you, so to speak--you're an easy mark for him, and it's an "easy markness" that he projects onto anyone (including myself) who has, er, "issues" with his bombastic Viagra-fueled form of political judgment.

I mean, I'm not altogether *denying* what you're saying about Christy Clark; but hey--she's a politician;-) And from my chosen "disinterested" position, I can channel the sentiment of "indifferent middle" voters for whom BCLiberal remains (like the Alta PCs long remained, even through the Klein years) a safe-choice comfort option unless they're convinced/coerced otherwise.  And in that case, you're ironically handicapped by "knowing her too well"...


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 12, 2016, 10:05:49 PM
Former BC NDP preem Dan Miller's position on KM also corroborates former BC NDP premier Mike Harcourt's  position on KM and a main reason why Harcourt publicly left the party 2 1/2 years ago. BTW, Harcourt was a former Van City mayor and on the moderate enviro wing of the BC NDP:

Quote
“Coming out against Kinder Morgan just finally did it for me. I thought that was so stupid and unnecessary,” Mr. Harcourt said, estimating Mr. Dix’s reversal cost the New Democrats 20 seats and alienated blue-collar workers in resource communities across the province.

He said the party needs leadership that balances an understanding of the Lower Mainland with the resource realities of the province. “Vancouver is an important part of the province, but most communities, about 150 of them, survive on natural resources, and if you say, ‘You can’t log, you can’t mine, you can’t drill wells for gas or ranch,’ you’re ignoring 95 per cent of British Columbia and most of the communities that depend on natural resources.”

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/former-premier-mike-harcourt-quits-bc-ndp-in-public-and-nasty-split/article17751648/

And tonight, Van Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer is musing that BC NDP leader Horgan may potentially flip-flop again on KM. In politics, if a politician is inconsistent and flip-flops too many times... they then lose their credibility with the electorate. Furthermore, the hard-core enviro wing apparently controlling the BC NDP will undoubtedly also scream at the top of their lungs:

Quote
Vaughn Palmer: Is public disagreement an opening for Horgan to shift positions?

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/vaughn-palmer-is-public-disagreement-an-opening-for-horgan-to-shift-positions


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on December 12, 2016, 10:43:23 PM
OK fair enough, but the PCs policies on climate change were very very very minimal and would never have been enough to give Trudeau the "fig leaf" he needed to be able to approve KM...unless of course you think that had Prentice won the 2015 as expected he would have pulled an "only Nixon could go to China" move and introduced an aggressive climate change plan himself that would have been much like what the Alberta NDP ended up doing. i have my doubts.

Oh absolutely. I think that Prentice would have moved on climate change in a much more concentrated way than past governments had, although it would not have been to the extent of the action that the NDP has taken.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on December 13, 2016, 02:59:27 AM
I'm not sure what you're referring to.  The only thing I recall is the I called, which I still believe, that Christy Clark is a narcissist who has no interest in public policy other than to the degree that it gets her into the spotlight.  She is an absolutely terrible and completely phony person.  Though, as I believe I also wrote at the time, a lot of people say that she can also be a genuinely nice person in personal dealings.

But you see, it's those kinds of characterizations (or for that matter, DL's characterization of Alberta's past "rabidly rightwing government") that fuel the sneers of a Lotuslander.  He gets his jollies out of beating the cr@p out of candy-a$$ wimps like you, so to speak--you're an easy mark for him, and it's an "easy markness" that he projects onto anyone (including myself) who has, er, "issues" with his bombastic Viagra-fueled form of political judgment.

I mean, I'm not altogether *denying* what you're saying about Christy Clark; but hey--she's a politician;-) And from my chosen "disinterested" position, I can channel the sentiment of "indifferent middle" voters for whom BCLiberal remains (like the Alta PCs long remained, even through the Klein years) a safe-choice comfort option unless they're convinced/coerced otherwise.  And in that case, you're ironically handicapped by "knowing her too well"...


Even if I didn't have Lotuslander on ignore, I wouldn't care in the slightest what he 'thinks.'

This isn't the case of her being a politician, I know what normal politician's are like and your argument which you acknowledge is based on not knowing anything about her, is the tired false equivalence of 'they all do it.'

I think you need to be here to fully appreciate what I mean when I claim that Christy Clark is only interested in issues when she knows there are cameras recording the events.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 13, 2016, 05:39:28 PM
Back to the narrative over former BC NDP preem Dan Miller coming out yesterday supporting KM, former B C NDP preem Harcourt quitting the BC NDP over KM, and one defeated interior BC NDP MLA in 2013 blaming Dix over his anti-KM position resulting in major popular vote share/seat losses in interior BC in 2013. The BC NDP, however, did retain some BC interior seats and time for some preliminary analysis of same heading into the 2017 BC election.

1. North Coast (comprises Prince Rupert and Haida Gwaii)

Always a safe BC NDP and the BC NDP will retain same in 2017. Nevertheless, while the BC Libs have always nominated a sacrificial lamb here... 2017 is different. As a matter of fact, the BC Libs have a nomination race here between two high profile locals - former Prince Rupert mayor Herb Pond and Rodney Proskiw, who is involved with many service org.s in PR. Begs the question... why are they even running? Because 3 local area BC NDP MLAs signed the so-called "Lelu Declaration", along with a minority of First Nations, opposing a local $36 billion proposed LNG facility by the Petronas consortium.

Several legislative reporters have also suggested that the BC NDP is committing political suicide as a result of signing the "Lelu Declaration" in the region considering that the majority of FNs and communities back this $36 billion project. In fact, two opinion polls show it also receives broad public support.

2. Skeena (comprising Kitimat and Terrace in neighbouring riding)

Transposed results for 2013:

BC NDP: 47.7%
BC Lib: 43.3%
BC Con: 6.8%
BCP: 2.2% (offshoot of Social Credit/Unity)

Had the BC Cons not run here in 2013, based upon relevant data (2009/2013 Kootenay East), the BC Con vote would likely have gone en masse to the BC Libs and would likely have been a BC Lib pick-up, notwithstanding the BCP vote. I suspect that incumbent BC NDP MLA Robin Austin saw the writing on the wall and decided not to run again, leaving the seat open. The BC NDP have not nominated yet, but have 4 candidates running for their nomination. While the BC Greens did not run here in 2013, they will be running a candidate here in 2017 as well.

OTOH, the BC Libs recruited high profile Haisla First Nation Chief Ellis Ross from Kitimat who is well known, not only opposing the Northern Gateway Pipeline terminus in Kitimat, but also supporting LNG in Kitimat inclusive of the Royal Dutch Shell consortium and the Chevron/Woodside consortium, which are $40 billion and $25 billion projects respectfully. BTW, in attendance at Ellis Ross' nomination meeting was Kitselas FN chief Joe Bevan as well as Shane Gottfriedson, BC Regional Chief of the Assembly of First Nations. Ellis' reason for running for the BC Libs? "The BC NDP is against every development project in our region".

Interesting to note that the polling stations within all First Nations in the riding always vote heavily BC NDP and I suspect that dynamic will change in 2017. Bottom line? Highly doubt that the BC NDP will retain this seat in 2017 and most likely a BC Lib pick-up.

3. Stikine (comprising Smithers and Stewart and a neighbouring riding in far NW BC)

Transposed results for 2013:

BC NDP: 46.6%
BC Lib: 37%
BC Con: 6.2% (endorsed by previous BC Lib MLA in 2013)
CHP: 6%
Greens: 3.5%

Incumbent BC NDP MLA Doug Donaldson, who also signed the "Lelu Declaration", would still have won this riding in 2013, albeit narrowly, even with the BC Con not running. Who knows whether the CHP will run here again in 2017 or not. A large First Nation component resides in this riding and FN polling stations always vote heavily BC NDP. However, various FNs in this riding have signed project benefit agreements with 3 separate proposed nat gas pipelines running from NE BC to proposed NW BC coastal LNG facilities, which the BC NDP opposes. And this riding is also heavily resource dependent in terms of mining/forestry.

The BC Libs have nominated Gitanyow FN deputy chief Wanda Good as their candidate and she is running on the same grounds as Ellis Ross in the neighbouring riding of Skeena - "the BC NDP opposes all development in our region". I suspect that some of the previous heavily FN NDP vote here will migrate over to Good in 2017 and it will be very tough for incumbent BC NDP MLA Donaldson to hang on here.

4. Columbia River-Revelstoke (bordering the Alberta border in central BC)

Transposed results for 2013:

BC NDP: 48.5%
BC Lib:  35.9%
BC Con: 8.7%
BC Green: 6.9%

Incumbent BC NDP MLA Norm Macdonald, who apparently was quite popular in the riding, has stepped down and this will be an open seat in 2017. Again, had the BC Cons not run here in 2017, the BC NDP would have still won the seat, albeit marginally. The riding comprises a mix of tourism and resource development and it's the BC NDP anti-resource development meme that will continue to hurt them in interior BC in 2017. The BC Libs have re-nominated their 2013 candidate Doug Clovechok while the BC NDP have nominated Invermere mayor Gerry Taft. Taft has faced both provincial and local scrutiny of his nomination and he seems to have disappeared from social media ever since. Remember, this riding is a somewhat socially conservative riding:

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/invermere-mayor-claims-mysterious-minority-status-to-win-ndp-nomination

http://www.columbiavalleypioneer.com/?p=18989

Again, for a myriad of reasons, the BC NDP has an uphill struggle attempting to hold onto this riding in 2017.

5./6. Nelson Creston/Kootenay West (neighbouring ridings in southern BC)

These two ridings represent somewhat of an "island" in interior BC and their demographics are very "green". Safe seats for the BC NDP and I suspect that the BC Greens will place 2nd in both in 2017 with the BC Libs well back in 3rd place.


PS. The latest saga on the KM file: Yesterday BC NDP leader John Horgan stated to the Vancouver Sun as follows:

"B.C., within Confederation, has every right to dictate what goes through its ports."

Such politically incompetent and inflammatory rhetoric will eventually bite one in the arse. Seems like Horgan is losin' it. In fact, BC ports are established under the Canada Marine Act and are under the jurisdiction/controlled by Transport Canada. BC ports are entirely under federal jurisdiction. Just common knowledge.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on December 14, 2016, 08:03:56 AM
Have analyzed all 87 BC ridings... but I will zero in on just one Van Isle provincial seat for 2017 (5 similar provincial seats/dynamics on Van Isle).

And that riding is Cowichan Valley. 2013 results:

BC NDP: 40.1%
BC Lib: 34.9%
BC Green: 19.2%
BC Con: 4.6%

This seat has always been a BC NDP stronghold historically.

Now the BC Cons are leaderless and won't have a leader for the first time, during a BC election, since the year 1903. Along with infighting and internal party lawsuits as well as the fact that the BC Cons are insolvent, I doubt that they will even run any candidates in 2017 since the 1903 election as well.

With data to suggest that former BC Con voters would almost en masse vote BC Lib (Kootenay East in 2009/2013 is a good example), the BC Libs would have likely taken the BC Con vote here in 2013, which would have resulted in a very marginal BC NDP (40.1%) to BC Lib (39.5%) win in 2013 - a slim 0.6% margin.

Now incumbent BC NDP MLA Bill Routley has stepped down and it will be an open seat without any "incumbent effect". Honestly, I think Routley saw the writing on the wall and stepped down as a result.

As well, I know for a fact that both the BC Greens and BC Libs are targeting this seat. The BC Greens have a strong 19.2% base to already start out with:

BC Greens: running high profile Area B Director for the Cowichan Valley Regional District Sonia Furstenau. Sonia Furstenau has received major media coverage over the past few years involving the Shawnigan Lake fiasco;

BC Libs: running 2013 candidate Steve Housser (former CBC TV reporter) and they have already been on the ground campaigning on the doorsteps;

BC NDP: nomination meeting in January and 4 candidates in running - local fed NDP riding prez, local NDP constituency association official, another NDP-linked candidate as well as a fourth;

Nevertheless, the BC Greens Furstenau is the highest profile candidate running in that riding and is also running on a major issue in the riding. And unlike the 2013 fringe BC Greens under invisible Jane Sterk, Weaver always grabs the media spotlight. And again, some media pundits expect Weaver to "win" the 2017 leader's debate, which will result in big "mo" and media attention for the BC Greens.

With other "CATI" data points that I have seen as well, even six months out I cannot see the BC NDP holding the riding of Cowichan Valley in 2017.

I highly suspect that either the BC Greens or BC Libs will take this seat in 2017. Again, overall 5 seats akin to the Cowichan Valley dynamics are extant on Van Isle, which is still always a harder region to predict seats for than either BC's interior or Metro Vancouver.

I think you have the BCNDP info wrong?, 5 candidates and Jan 15th nomination. Unless you have something more updated?

http://localeye.ca/2016/09/07/ndp-nomination-race-begins/

NDP candidates look to be: "... Lori Iannidinardo is the long-serving CVRD director for Cowichan Bay; Tim McGonigle is a five-term councillor for the Town of Lake Cowichan (and alternate CVRD director); and Debra Toporowski is a councillor on the Cowichan Tribes band council. Two others know their way around a campaign: Leanne Finlayson is a constituency assistant for MP Alistair MacGregor, and Georgia Collins, the development coordinator for the Inclusive Leadership Co-op"


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 14, 2016, 11:18:52 AM


I think you have the BCNDP info wrong?, 5 candidates and Jan 15th nomination. Unless you have something more updated?

http://localeye.ca/2016/09/07/ndp-nomination-race-begins/

I notice that article is dated September 7, 2016 and a 5th candidate is in the race (Tim McGonigle is a five-term councillor for the Town of Lake Cowichan);

I base my info on a blog called "Cowichan Conversations", run by local former BC NDP MLA Richard Hughes, dated about two months later on November 2, 2016, which omits that 5th candidate's name for whatever reason.

https://richardhughes.ca/a-lively-time-ahead-for-the-race-to-be-cowichans-next-mla/

Remember that the BC NDP has a policy whereby when a female MLA steps down, she is replaced by another female candidate. And when a male MLA steps down (as in this case), he is replaced by either a female or a male with some minority status.

As for the BC NDP nomination race itself, always tough to call... but I am leaning toward Georgia Collins. Collins ran for the fed NDP nomination in Cowichan-Malahat for the 2015 race, in a 4-person race IIRC, and was just narrowly edged out by now incumbent fed NDP MP Alistair MacGregor.

Collins is now the local fed NDP riding prez and is attractive, has a good persona and has some profile on a local high profile Shawnigan Lake issue within the riding.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 14, 2016, 02:07:39 PM
A new Innovative Research opinion poll (opt-in online) is out today on the Kinder Morgan pipeline approval with BC results:

Approve: 47%
Ambivalent: 21%
Oppose: 32% (23% "strongly" oppose)

http://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/2016/12/Leakage-Pipeline-Decisions-2016-Slides.pdf

Again, that 23% "Strongly" oppose KM number is the key figure and has been consistent with other polling over the years. It's a small minority voter pool that both the BC NDP and BC Greens are fighting over... leaving basically the rest for the BC Libs.

CATI polling on LNG, natural gas extraction/production, certain mines, BC Hydro's Site C dam, etc. all show strong majorities of support in BC. Yet, again, both the BC NDP and the BC Greens oppose same and are fighting over the same small voter pool... leaving basically the rest for the BC Libs. These different projects/political party positions are all "Symbolic" during an election campaign.

People typically vote in their self interests and their livelihoods and jobs/economy has always been the key issue (at the top of the list) during BC election campaigns. The mantra... "It's the economy, stupid" always rings true.

Again, with both the BC NDP and BC Greens fighting over the same, small hard-core voter pool... no path to gov't here whatsoever. I just don't get it.

And BC NDP leader John Horgan doesn't need these headlines either (from todays G & M):

Quote
B.C. NDP Leader Ridiculed For Suggesting Notwithstanding Clause Could Factor Into Pipeline Fight
IAN BAILEY
VANCOUVER — The Globe and Mail

Last updated Wednesday, Dec. 14, 2016 12:00PM EST

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-ndp-leader-john-horgan-vows-to-fight-ottawa-on-trans-mountain-pipeline/article33318119/





Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on December 15, 2016, 10:17:47 AM
People may vote for their "self-interest" - but the fact is for the about 98% of British Columbians it will make no difference to their self-interest whether Kinder Morgan is expanded or not. There is clearly segment of people in the Lower Mainland who feels it could be damaging to their self-interest if the volume of tankers carrying bitumen by their homes increases seven-fold. On the pro-KM side, who cares? There are people for whom having the pipeline built is in their self-interest - they are called Albertans. If you live in Alberta there is clearly every reason to want a pipeline to tidewater from which to export bitumen. If you live in suburban Vancouver - why would you give a damn if the pipeline is built? Its not going to create any jobs for anyone living in Surrey and the economic returns (if any) will all go to Alberta. There may be a small number of temporary jobs in BC on the construction of the expansion...otherwise, its a  big nothing. IMHO, people who strongly oppose the pipeline are vastly more likely to see it as a vote determining issues than people who passively go along with the expansion. There are very very few people in BC who are enthusiastcally pro-pipeline who are going to jump up and down with placards chanting "go pipeline"...why should they - its all about taking Alberta's oil to port and BC is just being crossed over - there is little in it for BC.

If we want to talk about people voting in their self-interest, the BC Liberals have vastly increasing monthly MSP premiums (and BC is now the only province left in Canada with a regressive flat tax to pay for health care) - every single BCer pays that premium and its skyrocketing. If I'm the average BC voters in suburban Vancouver - I probably don't actually give a damn whether a pipeline from Alberta crosses the territory of my province or not - but i sure do give a damn about skyrocketing MSP premiums and the really low quality public services that BC is notorious for.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 15, 2016, 03:53:06 PM
People may vote for their "self-interest" - but the fact is for the about 98% of British Columbians it will make no difference to their self-interest whether Kinder Morgan is expanded or not.

The political fallout from Adrian Dix's "Kinder Morgan Surprise" during the 2013 BC election provides some clear indication about folks voting intentions. Again, the BC NDP lost popular vote share/seats throughout interior BC, the Fraser Valley, and Metro Vancouver. Yep - as a result of KM.

The BC NDP did, however increase popular vote share in Van City proper as a result, narrowly winning Vancouver Point Grey and Vancouver-Fairview from the BC Libs - these seats are inner city Vancouver bordering Burrard Inlet. On the other side of Burrard inlet, the North Shore also gained popular vote share as well. In fact, in one riding, 2009 BC Green voters shifted big time to the BC NDP as a result.

But these minor gains for the BC NDP came at a huge expense for the BC NDP elsewhere. Again, KM was a "symbol" of the BC NDP's preceived anti-resource development, economy/jobs stances. Hell, even in the aftermath of the 2013 election, even John Horgan told the media that the anti-KM position was a "symbol" as such, among others.

KM employs/will employ engineering firms/consultants from downtown Van City. KM requires work camps along its routing as well - Britco in Agassiz, BC in the Fraser Valley and Horizon West in Kamloops, for example, have been major modular work camp manufacturers for the AB oil sands. These guys need the work from KM.

And, of course, the unionized BC Building Trades fully support KM, among all other major projects.

KM was a lightening rod/symbol in the 2013 BC election. Heading into 2017, roughly 5 major LNG projects are nearing the final approval stage (Petronas - 2017, Shell, 2018, ExxonMobil - 2020, Chevron - 2020, and CNOOC (Nexen) - 2020.

You are looking at combined CAPEX of ~$200 billion here. Singularly, each of these projects could be considered the world's largest industrial project. Each includes nat gas pipeline from NE BC to coastal NW BC (akin to 5 KM pipelines).  And major expansion of drilling, natural gas processing plants, etc. in the NE basins. All major employment nodes. All have majority FN buy-in and community support. And CATI polling also confirms majority BC support.

BTW, after 5 - 6 year build-out and after several years of operation thereafter each 12 million/ton installed LNG capacity will provide ~$1 billion in additional revenues to the BC treasury. Based upon combined total build-out of 114 million tons/annum by the roughly early 2030s, one is looking at up to another roughly $8 - 9 billion/annum into the BC treasury. These funds help pay for healthcare, education, social services, etc.

Yet the BC NDP opposes these LNG plants, natural gas pipelines, and natural gas drilling/fracking. Even some mines. A completely different BC NDP than the 1990's version, which was all pro-development. Again, the BC NDP seems to have been hijacked by a hard-core enviro contingent on the SW coast.

The BC Libs have been continually exploiting same portraying the BC NDP as the "No Development Party" and BC NDP Leader Horgan as "Dr. No". The "Kinder Morgan Surprise" killed the BC NDP in 2013... but these major projects brings the "Kinder Morgan Surprise" to a much higher level exponentially. Cannot emphasize "It's the economy, stupid" narrative enough.

Again, today, Ipsos released new KM polling numbers for BC (opt-in online panel/smaller sample size):

Support: 53%
Ambivalent: 21%
Disagree: 26% (19% "strongly" disagree)

http://ipsos-na.com/download/pr.aspx?id=16229

And long-time Global BC political reporter Keith Baldrey's take on it all:

Quote
OPINION: How will pipeline approval play out in B.C.?
Keith Baldrey / Burnaby Now

DECEMBER 14, 2016 11:36 AM

To figure out how our provincial political parties think they are going to be affected by the Kinder Morgan pipeline expansion controversy in the coming election campaign, it may be best to examine how their leaders have dealt with this issue over time.

For example, Premier Christy Clark could hardly hide her glee when the federal government announced its approval of the project, predicting all five of her conditions that must be in place before her government can lend its own support for it will be in place fairly soon.

Clark has used her conditions as an attempt to establish some sort of credibility when it comes to protecting the environment and addressing First Nations rights. But it's been clear for some time she wanted the pipeline project to go ahead, since her government views it as a job creation vehicle more than anything else

NDP leader John Horgan, who says he opposes Kinder Morgan, still admits to being reluctant about talking about the project. Horgan's difficulties with this file stem from the fact his party is seriously split when it comes to pipelines and Horgan himself has uttered contradictory positions on Kinder Morgan over the years  (which the B.C. Liberals are already using as juicy fodder for an attack ad against him).

But the leader who has the clearest and most consistent position on Kinder Morgan is B.C. Green party leader Andrew Weaver, who may be the prime benefactor of this issue.

Weaver has been an adamant opponent all along. And he is realizing he can use his consistency and unwavering opposition as effective tools to paint a strong contrast between himself and his opponents in a way that will resonate to voters who are opposed to the project and want to register their objections come next May.

Weaver will enthusiastically talk about Kinder Morgan at the drop of a hat, and he uses any opportunity to attack Horgan while he's doing that. He has clearly determined that any pool of potential Green voters will come from the NDP base of support more than the B.C. Liberal side.

Weaver is positioning his party to be seen as the truest, most honest party when it comes to opposing deeply divisive energy project. He will no doubt use Alberta NDP Premier Rachel Notley's enthusiastic support for Kinder Morgan to argue the B.C. version of the NDP can't be wholly trusted to oppose it themselves.

So look for Weaver to exploit the Kinder Morgan issue constantly in the months ahead and to attack Horgan whenever he can. Clark will tread more carefully, trying to skate her way through a difficult issue and essentially wanting to have it both ways.

Meanwhile, Horgan will simply hope to be able to talk about something - anything - else.

Keith Baldrey is chief political reporter for Global B.C.

 http://www.burnabynow.com/opinion/columnists/opinion-how-will-pipeline-approval-play-out-in-b-c-1.4550529#sthash.4CB8NVzm.dpuf

There is clearly segment of people in the Lower Mainland who feels it could be damaging to their self-interest if the volume of tankers carrying bitumen by their homes increases seven-fold.

Oh yeah. I'm certain that a small segment of Metro Van's population is emotionally fear-driven on an oil tanker going down based upon FUD. I'm also sure that the talk of the Exxon Valdez sinking still resonates. However, that ship was single-hulled and captained by a drunk that hit a reef - criminal negligence.

In any event, VLCC oil tankers, for nearly 40 years since 1977, have delivered crude oil from Alaska to WA State refineries virtually on a daily basis. They traverse past the west coast of Van Isle, past Victoria, through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, past Van Isle's Saanich Peninsula/Gulf Isles, through the Strait of Georgia to as close as the CA border - BP's massive Cherry Point Refinery.

Only smaller Aframax tankers depart from KM's marine loading facility in Burrard inlet - all double-hulled. And they will have two pilots on board from the Port of Vancouver right to Race Rock - off the west coast of Van Isle and back. Concurrently, 2 large escort tugs (with high HP engines that can move these puppies on a dime) will also escort these tankers to/from Race Rock. 'Twas all explained in detail on one of Metro Vancouver's 6 pm newscasts the other night.

And still only represents 1% of Port of Vancouver shipping traffic. The only "spills" that occur are from accidental discharge of ship bilge pumps or bunker oil from their engines - not the cargo itself.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 15, 2016, 04:15:43 PM
If we want to talk about people voting in their self-interest, the BC Liberals have vastly increasing monthly MSP premiums (and BC is now the only province left in Canada with a regressive flat tax to pay for health care) - every single BCer pays that premium and its skyrocketing. If I'm the average BC voters in suburban Vancouver - I probably don't actually give a damn whether a pipeline from Alberta crosses the territory of my province or not - but i sure do give a damn about skyrocketing MSP premiums and the really low quality public services that BC is notorious for.

Not exactly correct. Only about 40% of BCers pay the MSP - those covered under union contracts have their employer pay for same while those with under $30,000/year incomes don't pay at all. BTW, most MSP rate categories are either flat-lined or going down January 1, 2017. Here's CBC news table of the decreased MSP premiums:

https://i.cbc.ca/1.3896658.1481746160!/fileImage/httpImage/image.png_gen/derivatives/original_620/msp-hikes.png [plug the string into your browser]

It's a dedicated tax to healthcare, which brings in roughly $2.5 billion/annum. BC Green leader Weaver wants to move to the ON model - payroll tax/income tax surcharge. Problem is that revenue must match the ~$2.5 billion in annual lost MSP revenue. Furthermore, a good chunk of BCer's who have their MSP premiums paid by their employer would see them now paying additional tax. Becomes a very complex matter.

The BC NDP also vows to eliminate MSP but does not explain how it will do so either.

BTW, based upon 6 separate demographic groups and based upon all taxation (carbon tax, MSP, child care credit, income tax, PST, etc.), BCers pay either the 2nd or 3rd lowest in Canada in all demographic categories.

Now we move to taxation and fiscal management narratives. BC has had five balanced budgets/surpluses in a row. The BC NDP also vows to expand annual program spending, which will put BC into a deficit situation. For example, the BC NDP will bring in $10/day child care. It's common ground that said annual program spending will cost $1,5 - $ 2 billion/annum, which right there will already put BC into a deficit position.

Just before the 2013 BC election campaign, the BC NDP stated that this program was "too expensive - just not affordable" when they were trying to attract centrist voters. This time, the BC NDP looks to have it's most left-wing platform, in terms of annual program spending, since pre-1972 resulting in major budgetary deficits. Feeds into the "tax and spend" BC NDP meme and won't fly with the electorate either.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 16, 2016, 01:00:10 AM
Another major project in BC, for example, is BC Hydro's $8 billion Site C dam in NE BC's Peace River District - an area of major natural gas/some oil production and wheat/barley fields. It's the 3rd dam on the Peace River interconnected with the WAC Bennett Dam and the Peace Canyon Dam.

It's under construction and expected completion date is 2024 -2025 and has been on BC Hydro's books since the early 1980's.

The federal/provincial Joint Review Panel (combined environmental assessments) completed its assessment on May 1, 2014. It's final conclusion:

Quote
Site C would lock in low rates for many decades and would produce fewer greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy than any source save nuclear.

https://www.ceaa-acee.gc.ca/050/documents/p63919/99173E.pdf

As a background, the NEB has stated that BC Hydro accounted for 75% of net electricity imports from the U.S. last year. In August, BC Hydro had its highest summer one day electricity demand on record. And tonight looks like it may well be BC Hydro's highest winter one day electricity demand on record.

An additional 1 million are expected to reside within Metro Vancouver  alone over the next couple of decades according to forecasts. In addition, major industrial electricity demand is also forecast.

BTW, BC Hydro has the 3rd lowest electricity prices in North America.

Again, BC Hydro's Site C dam is under construction and has participation from local First Nations-owned companies as well as the unionized BC Building Trades and unionized firms non-affiliated with the BCBT.

A "CATI" opinion poll by Abacus Data, from a few months back on BC's attitude toward Site C:

Quote
SUPPORT FOR SITE C REMAINS BROAD

JUNE 8, 2016

Across the province 73% either support Site C (49%) or can support it under certain circumstances (24%), while 25% oppose the project.


http://abacusdata.ca/support-for-site-c-remains-broad/#sthash.ZAp732uk.dpuf

The Abacus Data findings were also corroborated by an opinion poll from NRG Research.

Just last week long-time Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer visited BC Hydro's Site C dam in NE BC:

Quote
Vaughn Palmer: Site C so far advanced no government would kill it

VAUGHN PALMER

Published on: December 9, 2016

Still on the basis of what I saw last week — the size and scope of the work accomplished so far coupled with contracts already locked in for the years ahead — I would be surprised if any B.C. government, current or future,  were to put a halt to Site C.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-site-c-so-far-advanced-no-government-would-kill-it

So why would any political party attempt to "kill" BC Hydro's Site C? Because, akin to the KM pipeline, a hardcore enviro contingent on BC's SW coast is against same. The rhetoric includes that the flooded valley bottom "could feed one million people". Bizarre. All treed and some hay farms as the JRP concluded.

Andrew Weaver and the BC Greens have consistently been against BC Hydro's Site C dam, for whatever reason, as they have been on KM.  OTOH, BC NDP leader John Horgan has flip-flopped on both matters. Again, it appears that the hardcore enviro ("Leap Manifesto") contingent within the BC NDP have taken control of BC Hydro's Site C issue as well. To wit, tonight's headline from the Globe and Mail:

Quote
B.C. NDP Leader John Horgan Open To Shutting Down Site C Dam

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-ndp-leader-john-horgan-open-to-shutting-down-site-c-dam/article33344009/

It's becoming increasingly apparent that the BC Libs will "own" the jobs/economy narrative in the 2017 campaign. OTOH, it also appears, for some perverse reason, that both the BC NDP and the BC Greens will battle over the enviro vote... perhaps even battling over winning opposition. Weird.

It's also becoming more apparent that the 2013 BC election was a watershed election in that the BC NDP has been taken over by a hardcore enviro element. In the 2013 election aftermath, one long-time BC NDP insider stated/wrote that the BC NDP finally had its own "COPE moment". One needs to be a long-time resident of Van City proper in order to understand that metaphor.

Concurrently, post-2013 the BC Greens have morphed from a fringe, irrelevant force into something that needs to be reckoned with under Weaver.

The 2017 election dynamics are becoming increasingly similar to the federal 2011 election dynamics whereby the Harper Cons sliced off "blue" fed Libs while the Layton NDP sliced off "red" Libs leaving the Ignatieff Liberals "squeezed" and in bad shape.

In the BC context, it's becoming increasingly clear that the BC Libs will slice off 2013 blue-collar BC NDP voters while the BC Greens will slice off both 2013 enviro BC NDP voters as well as 2013 BC NDP federal "red" Liberal voters with the BC NDP becoming "squeezed", as well, in the same context as the 2011 fed Ignatieff Libs.

Grab your bag of popcorn watching all this unfold into May, 2017.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on December 16, 2016, 11:09:52 AM
blah blah blah blah blah from Lotuslander who suffers from "NDP derangement syndrome"... Do you have some special padded cell in your house that is all orange and lined with pictures of everyone from Tommy Douglas to Dave Barrett to Jack Layton to Mike Harcourt where you can go in and do some primal screaming and bang your fists against the wall? What's the deal with you? Did your mother leave your father for an NDP politician when you were a little boy? Were you in love with someone who was an NDP supporter who rejected you? If the BC NDP actually did win the May 2017 election would we have to put you on suicide watch?

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and to be an amateur pundit, but this is the same person who wrote a 5,000 word essay on this site last year about how the NDP was 100% GUARANTEED to lose Victoria to the Green Party...the NDP incumbent won it by a large margin. This is the same person who wrote endless pseudo-scientific analysis of Coquitlam Burke Mountain where supposedly a BC Liberal win in the byelection was absolutely totally 100% guaranteed...the NDP won the seat by 7% (he also hinted the the Greens could even win Vancouver-Mount Pleasant - the NDP blew them out of the water by a 45% margin). This is the same person who swore that the federal NDP would be reduced to no more than 5 or 6 seats in BC federally and that the Green party would win several seats on Vancouver island...lo and behold wrong again, the NDP won 14 seats in BC.

I've been wrong in my political predictions in my life, but at least i have the humility to acknowledge that i could be wrong to own up to it when I am wrong. I don't make myself out to be His Holiness the Pope making EX CATHEDRA projections and pronouncements


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 16, 2016, 03:06:05 PM
blah blah blah blah blah from Lotuslander who suffers from "NDP derangement syndrome"... Do you have some special padded cell in your house that is all orange and lined with pictures of everyone from Tommy Douglas to Dave Barrett to Jack Layton to Mike Harcourt where you can go in and do some primal screaming and bang your fists against the wall? What's the deal with you? Did your mother leave your father for an NDP politician when you were a little boy? Were you in love with someone who was an NDP supporter who rejected you? If the BC NDP actually did win the May 2017 election would we have to put you on suicide watch?

Hahaha! Oh man... I almost fell outta of my chair with your comedic relief! As for the rest of your illusory rhetoric... par for the course for the rogue ON NDP Jehovah's Witness sect. Sigh.

Alright then... let's analyze 2 of the 4 Burnaby ridings in Metro Vancouver:

1. Burnaby Lougheed:

2013 transposed results:

BC NDP: 44.1%
BC Lib: 40%
BC Con (Christine Clarke): 6.7%
BC Green: 8.2%

This riding was held by the Libs in 2001, 2005, and 2009. In 2013, the BC Libs ran a weak candidate here and the BC Cons ran a candidate here (with the name Christine Clarke) for the first time in many elections. The combined BC Lib and BC Con vote here would have resulted in a narrow BC Lib win here in 2013 and the Cons won't be running here in 2017.

First time incumbent BC NDP MLA Jane Shin apparently saw the writing on the wall and has decided not to seek re-election leaving B-L an open seat. As for the candidates in 2017:

BC Lib: Steve Darling
- is a well known household name in BC as he had previously been Global BCTV's morning news anchor for 18 years. His nomination certainly surprised and raised eyebrows across the political spectrum.

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/national/former-global-anchor-steve-darling-named-mla-candidate-for-bc-liberals/article32834819/

BC NDP: Katrina Chen
- Burnaby school trustee who is municipally affiliated with BCA (NDP muni farm team);

BC Greens: Joe Keithley

- Known as "Joey sh**thead" with DOA and ran as BC Green candidate in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain by-election;

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/punk-rocker-joe-keithley-to-run-in-burnaby-election-race

Considered a swing riding that slightly leans BC Lib will be quite difficult for BC NDP to hang onto this seat in 2017;

2. Burnaby-Deer Lake

2013 transposed results:

BC NDP: 48.5%
BC Lib: 43.1%
BC Greens: 8.4%

The old Burnaby-Willingdon riding, which the Socreds won many times back in the 1980's (only Burnaby seat that they could win).

The BC Libs held this seat in 2001 and 2005 and the BC NDP narrowly won here in 2009. Back pre-2009 a major high profile issue arose here involving placing a youth detention centre near residential neighbourhood. The BC NDP candidate, Kathy Corrigan (Burnaby mayor's wife) ran with it and won.

Kathy Corrigan has decided to step down for the 2017 election leaving this an open seat.

Now another major high-profile issue has arisen here involving housing that has been on the 6 pm TV newscasts as well as in print media. Involves Burnaby council (BCA - NDP muni farm team) rezoning 1,000's of 1960's/1970's era 3-storey walk-up rental building units in Metrotown to condo towers.

These rental buildings are being torn down displacing lower-income renters - "Demovictions". Interestingly enough, the polling stations comprising these rental apartment buildings trend strongly BC NDP while the condo tower polling stations trend strongly BC Lib.

BTW, well over 100 condo towers are under construction in Burnaby with almost half over 40 storeys in height. Building boom going on.

As for the "Demovictions', numerous protest marches have occurred but the BC NDP has remained silent obviously due to fact that Burnaby council is NDP-controlled. The only political leader attending these rallies is BC Green leader Andrew Weaver.

http://vancouver.24hrs.ca/2016/08/22/bc-ndp-ignores-metrotown-demovictions-greens

Now the BC Greens have recruited high profile Metrotown Residents’ Association president and anti-demoviction activist Rick McGowan as their candidate in the riding.

BC NDP: Anne Kang (Burnaby councillor)
BC Lib: Karen Wang (operates 3 daycare centres)

It's a swing riding and one to watch on election night.

As for Burnaby as a whole and just as a curiosity... a few months back Burnaby Firefighters IAFF Local 323 held a large gala attended by the deputy BC preem (who was also presented with an award) and other BC Libs. Surprisingly enough, no BC NDP MLAs were invited. In fact, Burnaby Firefighters are also making major appearances at local Burnaby BC Lib fundraising/campaign events. Never seen that before.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: warandwar on December 16, 2016, 04:13:25 PM
Hahaha! Oh man... I almost fell outta of my chair with your comedic relief! As for the rest of your illusory rhetoric... par for the course for the rogue ON NDP Jehovah's Witness sect. Sigh.

Damn DL's going to need aloe for that sick burn.

Curious about one thing: You're continuously saying that the BC Con vote will migrate entirely to the Libs, based on like one riding. I don't really see how you can generalize this to the province at large. They could easily vote for a) no one b) another fringe party or even the NDP! The type of 1-1 voter transfer you're talking about almost never happens (well maybe in your one cherry picked example, but not province-wide!)



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 16, 2016, 05:20:18 PM

Curious about one thing: You're continuously saying that the BC Con vote will migrate entirely to the Libs, based on like one riding. I don't really see how you can generalize this to the province at large. They could easily vote for a) no one b) another fringe party or even the NDP! The type of 1-1 voter transfer you're talking about almost never happens (well maybe in your one cherry picked example, but not province-wide!)

Good point. I bring the Kootenay East riding up as a general example as in 2009 the BC Libs, BC NDP, BC Cons, and BC Greens all ran candidates here. In 2013, it was the only riding with 2 candidates (BC Lib/BC NDP). Of course I am making inferences here.

Just look at the riding of Burnaby Lougheed in my previous post and change from 2013 over 2009 for example:

BC NDP: 44.1% (-0.5%)
BC Lib: 40% (-7.9%)
BC Con (Christine Clarke): 6.7% (+6.7%)
BC Green: 8.2% (+1.4%)

I believe one can infer here that the BC Con vote came at the expense of the BC Libs.

Many other ridings more difficult to ascertain... eg. both BC Lib vote goes up/BC Con vote goes up while BC NDP vote goes down. But other data to suggest that 2009 blue collar BC NDP voters ->>> voted BC Lib and BC Lib voters ---> voted Con in 2013.

The BC Cons are quite right-wing (now comatose) and more likely to tap BC Lib voters on the right-wing of the party.  Again, having followed all ridings and their demographics over the years my hunch is that the BC Con vote comes mostly at the expense of the BC Libs. Not always of course.

BTW, the 2013 BC Con candidates in Kamloops-South Thompson (RCMP officer) and in Burnaby North (businessman), for example, have shifted their support over to the BC Libs.

OTOH, the BC Greens are a completely different story. For example, in the Greater Victoria ridings in total, the BC Greens took more 2009 BC Lib votes here than 2009 BC NDP votes in 2013. Yet cross the Malahat Pass into the Cowichan Valley riding the BC Greens gained about 8% in 2013 while the BC NDP dropped by about the same amount over 2009.

And in 2013 there were 24 ridings that the BC Greens did not run but they did run in 2009. Some may think that the 2009 BC Green vote would have shifted over to the BC NDP. Not correct. In fact, in 18 of those 24 ridings the BC NDP vote actually fell:

http://public.tableau.com/profile/cskelton#!/vizhome/GreenPartySplit/Dashboard1

[copy link and place into your browser]









Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 16, 2016, 07:05:17 PM
Hahaha! Oh man... I almost fell outta of my chair with your comedic relief! As for the rest of your illusory rhetoric... par for the course for the rogue ON NDP Jehovah's Witness sect. Sigh.

Damn DL's going to need aloe for that sick burn.

Again, the way Lotuslander phrases it, "rogue ON NDP Jehovah's Witness sect" might as well be a metaphor for "crazy moneygrubbing b*tch of an ex-wife".


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on December 16, 2016, 07:58:28 PM
So back on topic...

I really dislike the new Liberal plan to lend homeowners a down payment. Just a terrible idea.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: warandwar on December 16, 2016, 09:04:19 PM
So back on topic...

I really dislike the new Liberal plan to lend homeowners a down payment. Just a terrible idea.

Agreed. My uncle teaches econ at UBC, has a quote about it here (http://globalnews.ca/news/3130685/terrible-policy-b-c-housing-incentives-widely-panned-by-experts/).



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 17, 2016, 01:41:10 AM
So back on topic...

I really dislike the new Liberal plan to lend homeowners a down payment. Just a terrible idea.

My initial reaction as well. The earlier 15% additional foreigners sales tax in Metro Vancouver was a populist move. The vast majority of BCers agreed with same. The subsequent Metro Vancouver real estate sales data confirmed the negative impact as expected. Then the BC Libs announced other housing initiatives such as a major social/rental housing initiative in conjunction with munis and the feds. Still, will take years before same is completed. All politics of course.

So when the recent initiative came out about assisting first-time home-buyers... first thing that sprang to my mind was WTF? The Metro Van market is cooling and the last thing it needs is another impetus on the demand side.

Hell, over two years ago, the market had peaked wayyyyyyy too much. Then another bizarre 30% - 40% increase in real estate values over the past year. Again, most was in the SFD market yet it impacted all sectors.

Now the media on the local 6 pm newscasts, as well as in print, report upon millennials that are either childless or with children that qualify for the new stringent CMHC mortgage rules but still are unable to save up enough for their down payment due to the vastly increased RE prices over the past few years.

That's tough. Because their current rental payments pay for their landlord's mortgage instead of their own.  I personally learnt that lesson myself when I was about 20.

Then I begin to think that alot of cheaper, older apartment condos or even townhouses are extant in the 'burbs for them to purchase. Moreover, the current Metro Vancouver apartment rental vacancy rate is almost nil and that would also free up rental units.

Alot of knee-jerk reaction and I still need time to digest and analyze the matter.

And tonight the Vancouver Sun is reporting that the exact same BC down-payment program was extant, for about 35 years, from the early 1950's, under then Socred premier WAC Bennett, continued under the BC NDP Barrett years (1972 - 1975) but was then ended by Socred premier Vander Zalm in the late 1980's:

Quote
B.C.'s New Second Mortgage Program Is An Old Socred Idea With New Money

JEFF LEE

Published on: December 16, 2016

If the provincial government’s new mortgage assistance program for first-time homebuyers sounds familiar, that’s because it is certainly not new.

For decades before the Social Credit government of Bill Vander Zalm wiped it out in the late 1980s, the province ran a B.C. Second Mortgage program that gave low- or no-interest mortgage loans to homeowners who would otherwise not meet minimum lending qualifications.

The concept, brought in by the Socred government of W.A.C. Bennett and carried on through successive New Democrat and Socred governments, created more than 50,000 second mortgages and pumped hundreds of millions of dollars into the real estate economy.

By the time Vander Zalm’s government sold it off in 1989 to the Bank of Montreal as part of a wider target of privatizing many government programs, it had a portfolio of 47,000 mortgages worth $300 million. Then-social services and housing minister Claude Richmond said at the time the “sale of these loans is part of our government’s initiative to return responsibility for this type of lending to the private sector”.

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-s-new-second-mortgage-program-is-an-old-socred-idea-with-new-money

And I will leave the final take to BC's political media analysts (Keith Baldrey - Global BC, Gary Mason - G & M, Mike Smyth - The Province) on Twitter:

Quote
Gary Mason ‏@garymasonglobe  Dec 15

I think this is a smart, progressive move by @christyclarkbc 's government. Will help many, immensely

Quote
Keith Baldrey ‏@keithbaldrey  11 hours ago

In a nutshell:

Quote
Gary Mason @garymasonglobe

Critics: BC government not doing enuf for 1st-time home buyers!
Gov: introduces program to help 1st-time buyers
Critics: stupid idea!

Quote
Keith Baldrey ‏@keithbaldrey  9 hours ago

Doesn't sound well-thought out going into an election campaign.

Quote
Mike Smyth @MikeSmythNews

An NDP gov't would cancel Christy Clark's 1st-time homebuyers' loan program if they win the May election, NDP critic David Eby says.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 17, 2016, 01:56:16 AM

Agreed. My uncle teaches econ at UBC, has a quote about it here (http://globalnews.ca/news/3130685/terrible-policy-b-c-housing-incentives-widely-panned-by-experts/).

Is he T.D.? If so, he is relatively new to the Metro Van region but enjoys talking to the media. I like him. However, I also tend to disagree with him on many matters. BTW, a few months back, by fluke, I was online and T.D. tweeted out that he requested assistance on a background matter as he was about to appear on TV to discuss same within an hour. So I obliged and forwarded him some Cansim tables from Statscan on the relevant subject matter. And off he went.

If he is T.S., I have had considerable respect for him over the past decade plus.

Irrespective of the foregoing, I have had always the utmost respect in BC for the senior economist of the BC Central Credit Union (now known as Central 1 Credit Union).  Bryan Yu fills those shoes these days while his predecessor was Helmut Pastrick.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 17, 2016, 02:50:23 PM
Vancouver Island will be the most fluid and unpredictable region of BC's 3 regions during the 2017 BC election. I've already analyzed the riding of Cowichan Valley and here are three more ridings to watch:

1.Saanich North and the islands:

2013 transposed result:

BC NDP: 33.3% (-10.9%)
BC Lib: 32.8% (-11.9%)
BC Green: 32.1% (+20.8%)

The seat was part of the BC Green surge on the southern half of Van Isle in 2013 and as one can see the BC Greens took slightly more votes from the BC Libs than the BC NDP allowing the BC NDP to win the seat, by a hair, for the first time ever.

Looking more closely at the 2013 result, the BC Libs won the majority of the polling stations on the Saanich Peninsula while the BC Greens won most of the rest. On the Gulf Islands, the BC NDP won most of the polling stations while the BC Greens won the rest. BC Libs came in at an abysmal third place here. Federally, the Greens swept the Gulf Island polling stations by an average of 70% - 80% in 2015 and the area has very "green" demographics.

I suspect that the BC NDP won the riding in 2013 as a result of their "Kinder Morgan Surprise" with potential tanker traffic passing by the Gulf Isles. All 3 parties will be running their same 2013 candidates. BC Green candidate Adam Olsen has been championing the anti-KM cause and was the keynote speaker at an anti-KM rally in Victoria a few weeks back.

Seems that the BC Greens have the clearest path to victory here in 2017 with local electoral dynamics and this will likely be their 2nd seat won on election night.

2. Nanaimo:

2013 transposed result:

BC NDP: 45.7%
BC Lib: 37.2%
BC Green: 10.6%
BC Con: 5.4%

Assuming that the BC Con vote here moves over to the BC Libs in 2017, the spread is 3.1%. The BC Greens are targeting all Van Isle seats while the BC Libs have also targeted this seat early on. Candidates:

BC NDP: Leonard Krog - first elected in 1991 and one of BC NDP's most low profile MLAs.
BC Lib: Paris Gaudet - executive director of Innovation Island
BC Green: TBA

Nanaimo is kinda interesting in that the northern half is centre-right while the southern half is centre-left and the political divide is roughly at the Departure Bay Ferry terminal.

The 2015 fed election results may provides some political clues as well. The federal riding of Nanaimo- Ladysmith (with 2 underlying provincial districts) had the following results:

NDP: 33.2% (-12%)
Liberal: 23.5% (+17%)
Con: 23.4% (-17%)
Green: 19.8% (+13%)

Interesting that the NDP vote loss correlates to the Green vote gain while the Con vote loss correlates to the Lib vote gain. So where did the federal Green vote come from super-imposed upon the provincial riding? The fed Greens generally came in 4th place in polling stations within the northern centre-right portion. OTOH, the fed Greens won some polling stations and came in 2nd place in many polling stations in the southern centre-left portion of the riding.

Certainly a riding to watch in 2017.

3. North Island:

2013 transposed result:

BC NDP: 50.7%
BC Lib: 42.2%
BC Con: 7.1%

Assuming that the Con vote will go BC Lib in 2017 the spread would have been 1.4% even without a BC Green running back then.

North Island is interesting in that a large resource development base is extant in terms of forestry and mining. In addition, it also is continuing to witness an influx of Albertan retirees that extends from northern Nanaimo right up to Campbell River.

The BC NDP has always done well here due to the fact that a larger First Nations vote exists here that always votes heavily NDP. Again, both the BC Greens and BC Libs are targeting this seat and the BC Libs have come out early nominating Dallas Smith who is the local high profile president of the First Nation Nanwakolas Tribal Council. His reason for running: "growing the economy". As an aside, he is the 3rd First Nation chief nominated by the BC Libs for 2017. I don't ever recall the BC Libs running a First Nations candidate in a previous election.

Again, certainly a riding to watch in 2017.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on December 17, 2016, 03:47:12 PM
The BC Liberal candidate in North Island in 2009 was heavily hyped Kwakiutl First Nations chief Marion Wright...she didnt even come close and lost quite a bit of ground compared to what the BC Libs got in that riding in 2005 - even though she massively outspent the NDP incumbent.

The danger for the BC Liberals in running candidates who are First Nation is that much of the BC Liberal base outside of Vancouver is composed of extreme rightwing federal Tory/ex-Reform Party types who tend to be racist against First Nations. If the BC Liberal candidate is an "Indian" (sic.) the racists whose votes the BC Liberals depend on may feel uninspired and stay home on election day.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 18, 2016, 01:13:19 AM
The BC Liberal candidate in North Island in 2009 was heavily hyped Kwakiutl First Nations chief Marion Wright...she didnt even come close and lost quite a bit of ground compared to what the BC Libs got in that riding in 2005 - even though she massively outspent the NDP incumbent.

The danger for the BC Liberals in running candidates who are First Nation is that much of the BC Liberal base outside of Vancouver is composed of extreme rightwing federal Tory/ex-Reform Party types who tend to be racist against First Nations. If the BC Liberal candidate is an "Indian" (sic.) the racists whose votes the BC Liberals depend on may feel uninspired and stay home on election day.

Congrats DL. You have finally posted an analytically intelligent post in this thread. Whether I agree or disagree with same is irrelevant.

Off the bat. Thanks. I forgot that the BC Libs ran FN chief Marion Wright in the same North Island seat back in 2009. Her popular vote share was reduced by 4% from the previous BC Lib incumbent, who lost to the BC NDP's Claire Travena, in 2005. Was her 4% reduction in popular vote share all due to racism?

Perhaps a bit. But doubtful for entire 4%. Remember that the BC Libs introduced the carbon tax back circa July, 2008, which caused an immediate backlash in BC, not only as another perceived "tax" but a tax on gasoline, natural gas heating, etc. on consumers. And strategically the BC NDP ran with same with their "Axe the Gas Tax" campaign all over the media. Even Layton came out to BC to participate in same. One would call same a brilliant right-wing populist anti-tax politics. And it worked well for the BC NDP in the 2009 election.

BTW, back in 2007, at convention, the BC NDP adopted "Sustainable BC", which also incorporated a carbon tax in BC. But politics always supersedes adopted party policy here in BC.

Again, I highly suspect that the BC NDP's "Axe the Gas Tax" campaign resonated quite well in rural BC and suspect that was the main reason that the BC NDP gained popular vote share all through rural BC inclusive of North Island.

BTW,  Mustel, a very high quality "CATI" pollster here in BC released its results on an opinion poll on the carbon tax almost exactly one year ago today. It's findings? Only 50% of BCers support the carbon tax.

More importantly,  the BC NDP has always been pro-resource development in BC. Was the case back in 2009 and was not a material issue in BC. Remember that North Island is also a resource dependent riding.

However, the anti-KM pipeline position by Adrian Dix back in 2013 was a pivotal moment n BC politics esp. with the BC NDP. I will re-iterate that the BC NDP has been hijacked by a hardcore enviro crowd within Van City proper and southern Van Isle. I cannot stress same enough.

The BC NDP is now not only opposed to KM but also LNG projects, nat gas pipelines, natural gas drilling/fracking in NE BC, BC Hydro's Site C dam, several mines, etc., etc. etc. Never, ever would have happened pre-2009 in BC. Imagine if Andrea Horwath held the same positions? Undoubtedly all northern ON NDP MPPs would be toast.

Now let's look at some data corroborating the BC NDP's anti-resource development positions apparently dictated by BC 's SW BC coast enviros. A good example is the Elk Valley in SE BC in the riding of Kootenay East. That area comprises the largest amount of metallurgical coal mines in Canada. BTW, met coal is utilized for steel-making in Asia and SE BC's open-pit mines, run by Teck Resources, are considered the highest quality, low-carbon on the planet.

Back in 2005, the BC NDP did quite well with the unionized USW coal miners in the region winning all polling stations in the Elk Valley. In 2009, it shifted a bit to the BC Libs. In 2013, the BC Libs won all polling stations therein by wide margins. Hell, in the 2015 fed election, the Cons won polling stations thereto by up to 75% popular vote share.

My analysis confirms the foregoing throughout interior BC where mines and other resource development is extant. Frankly, interior BC folks are spooked by the hardcore BC NDP enviro policies and are just voting for their livelihoods here.

Long-time Global BCTV legislative reporter Keith Baldrey also corroborates same:

Quote
The Great Divide Between Resources And Environment Will Dominate B.C. Election: Baldrey

By Keith Baldrey   Global News

...

The B.C. Liberals have gone all-in on growing the economy and have put the kind of environmental protection the anti-pipeline crowd is demanding on a distant back-burner. While it is keeping things like the carbon tax in place, the current government is in no hurry to expand environmental protections to the level that green activists are looking for.

The New Democratic Party, on the other hand, has adopted the exact opposite philosophy. The party has almost fully embraced the various positions of environmental activists, which include opposing pipelines such as Kinder Morgan’s and demanding much more aggressive action when it comes to fighting climate change, even if it greatly curbs economic development.

The NDP has clearly put the need for economic growth lower on the priority list than fighting climate change, or a large increase in government spending for everything from public transit to social services.
...

http://globalnews.ca/news/2991098/the-great-divide-between-resources-and-environment-will-dominate-b-c-election-baldrey/

To further corroborate the foregoing, during the 1990's, the BC NDP held the BC central interior ridings in Prince George, for example. Obviously the BC NDP was pro-resource development back in the day. Today? I follow all 3 BC political parties both in the news and in social media. Riding by riding. I have not yet seen any potential candidate step up to the plate for the BC NDP either in the Prince George ridings, the Cariboo ridings, etc.

OTOH, last night Prince George-Valemount BC Lib MLA and the BC Minister of Jobs, Tourism, Skills Training and Labour held her BC Lib X-mas gathering n her riding:

()

Yep. The same Shirley Bond that was invited to speak to the unionized BC Building Trades convention earlier this year, not only receiving a standing ovation, but was also invited and attended their national convention. The first time in BCBT history.

Draw your own inferences.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 20, 2016, 04:19:53 AM
The BC Green Party - the elephant in the room for the 2017 election.

Bit of history. Was formed back in 1983 after the formation of the German Green Party, which was co-founded by Petra Kelly in 1980. BC Greens have always been considered a fringe party led by flaky leaders and never have had much media attention.

Heading into the 2013 election... prior to same they were comatose. Dead website. No press releases. Never ran in by-elections. No party organization. A no-name leader by the name of Jane Sterk who nobody ever heard of. When the 2013 writ was dropped, Sterk seemed to have left her day job for the campaign. Again, really not much media exposure and, even then, Sterk came across as a boring wet noodle, to anyone who was paying attention, bereft of any personality. Again, the BC Greens always came across as some fringe enviro party and still did in 2013.

The BC Greens managed to scrape together candidates in 61/85 ridings just prior to the 2013 election. One BC Green candidate, however, did receive some provincial media attention in 2013 - esp. in the Greater Victoria area - Dr. Andrew Weaver from UVic who ran in the BC Lib held riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head in Greater Victoria. Weaver was somewhat well-known in BC and has a relatively impressive CV.

Interestingly enough, the BC Greens were making headway in the Greater Victoria region during the 2013 writ period and it was certainly not because of BC Green leader Jane Sterk who was basically invisible throughout the campaign. It became apparent that Dr. Andrew Weaver was the galvanizing force in the Greater Victoria area for the BC Greens with local media attention, etc. In political terms, Dr. Weaver was the local "rising tide that lifts all boats" in terms of his local running mates.

One of the main reasons why BC NDP leader Adrian Dix pulled off his "Kinder Morgan Surprise" during the 2013 BC election was to kneecap the BC Greens. And to an extent it worked - suspect that it eventually prevented the BC Greens from winning their 2nd 2013 seat in Saanich North and the Islands (with then a BC Lib incumbent) as the BC NDP picked up the seat by the thinnest of margins due to the large BC NDP vote in the Gulf Islands - the same Gulf Islands that the fed Green obtained between 70% - 80%, on average, in all polling stations during the 2015 fed election.

Moreover, even after the "Kinder Morgan Surprise", apparently the BC NDP was so spooked about the BC Green surge in Greater Victoria (revealed in 2013 post-mortems) that Victoria-Swan Lake BC NDP MLA brought over former BC NDP premier Mike Harcourt, with moderate enviro credentials, and held a press conference to "define" the BC Greens, which received local media attention and also likely stunted the BC Greens surge thereto.

Then the 2013 leaders TV debate came and BC Green leader Sterk, with her first exposure to the BC public, received 5% in terms of "Who Won the Debate" in an internal BC Lib CATI poll, which I posted earlier on herein.

At the end of the day, the BC Greens still did quite well in the Greater Victoria area ridings in terms of popular vote shares v the 2009 BC election (even taking more 2009 BC Lib votes than BC NDP votes overall):

1. Saanich North and the Islands

BC NDP: 33.3% (-10.9%)
BC Lib: 32.8% (-11.9%)
BC Green: 32.1% (+20.8%)

2. Saanich South

BC NDP: 45.6% (-1.5%)
BC Lib: 35.3% (-9.9%)
BC Green: 15.3% (+8.6%)
BC Con: 3.3% (+3.3%)

3. Oak Bay-Gordon Head

BC Green: 40.4% (+31.5%)
BC Lib: 29.3% (-17.4%)
BC NDP: 28.4% (-16%)
BC Con: 1.9% (+1.9%)

4. Victoria-Swan Lake

BC NDP: 54.5% (-6.5%)
BC Green: 23.2% (+10.3%)
BC Lib: 22.3% (-4.7%)

5. Victoria-Beacon Hill

BC NDP: 48.7% (-6.7%)
BC Green: 33.9% (+16.7%)
BC Lib: 17% (-9.2%)

6. Esquimalt-Royal Roads

BC NDP: 48.2% (-4.7%)
BC Lib: 28.6% (-1.6%)
BC Green: 21.7% (+4.9%)

7. Juan De Fuca

BC NDP: 53.4% (-3.9%)
BC Lib: 30.7% (-2.9%)
BC Green: 15.9% (+7.2%)

Overall in the Greater Victoria area, the BC Greens took more 2009 BC Lib votes than 2009 BC NDP votes.

Moreover, the Great Victoria area is also the most volatile political area in BC in terms of federal, provincial, and municipal elections. To wit:

1. Most would not have predicted that the federal riding of Saanich-Gulf Islands would have been won by the federal Greens in the 2011 fed election;
2. Most would not have predicted that the BC Greens would have won the provincial riding of Oak Bay-Gordon Head in 2013, almost winning SNI, and major uptick in other Greater Victoria ridings;
3. Most would not have predicted that the municipal Green mayoral candidates would have won, over the incumbents, in both Victoria and Saanich in November, 2014;

Ergo, Greater Victoria is also an area to watch during the 2017 BC election.

As for the BC Greens, during the 2013 BC election, they obtained 8.1% popular vote share - basically the same as the 2 previous elections but with less candidates. In fact, the BC Greens ran 24 less candidates in 2013 than they did in 2009. One would think that the 2009 BC Green vote would have gone BC NDP in 2013? Wrong. In fact, the BC NDP even lost popular vote share in 18/24 of those ridings in 2013. Here are the tabulated results:

http://public.tableau.com/profile/cskelton#!/vizhome/GreenPartySplit/Dashboard1

[Copy link and place into browser]

Again, the BC Greens obtain votes from both the BC Libs, BC NDP, and apparently former non-voters.

Now heading into the 2017 BC election. The BC Greens have morphed from a fringe enviro party with an invisible leader into a relatively credible political party with a visible/viable leader. Seriously. Incumbent BC Green MLA Dr. Andrew Weaver was elected as the new BC Green Party leader in 2015. Since then, I have read/heard both moderate BC Libs and BC New Democrats describe Weaver as "bright", "hard-working", "down-to-earth", "authentic", "likable", "media savvy", "one's favourite uncle", etc.

BC Green leader Weaver is consistently in both the provincial and local media (TV, radio, print). Even just today. Seems that Weaver is moving the perception/impression of the BC Greens as just an enviro party but broadening same:

1. Economy - high tech sector, etc.
2. Energy - wind/solar;
3. Housing;
4. MSP (medical) premiums;
5. Education;
etc.

Seems that Weaver is positioning the BC Greens akin to a greenish, centrist "red" federal Liberal type party. In fact, in a few ridings, I postulate that the BC Greens have nominated candidates that are both higher profile/calibre than either the BC Libs/BC NDP to date. Moreover, the BC Greens have "red-lit" 2 candidates, to date, that are a media personality and a municipal politician respectively. One would think that beggar's can't be choosers but obviously not the case here.

Moreover, Weaver has his press secretary, the BC Greens have a director of communications, and they have a solid campaign manager in place. Many federal "red" Liberals have already joined his campaign.

BTW, long-time BC Province political newspaper columnist Mike Smyth thinks "Weaver will win 2017 leader's debate". Long-time Vancouver Sun political columnist has referenced same albeit "a 1991 Gordon Wilson moment is highly doubtful". Remember that most voters don't pay attention to the 4-week campaign until ~half-way through when the leaders debate is held. If Weaver does "win" the 2017 leader's debate would obviously result in big 'mo", volunteers, media attention, etc. Still all speculation and conjecture at this stage though.

Will say this again... the BC Greens will be the elephant in the room in the 2017 election and don't be surprised if they receive 15%+ (or who knows) of the popular vote share taking from both "soft" 2013 BC Lib and BC NDP voters.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 20, 2016, 08:23:49 AM
The BC Green Party - the elephant in the room for the 2017 election.

Bit of history. Was formed back in 1983 after the formation of the German Green Party, which was co-founded by Petra Kelly in 1980. BC Greens have always been considered a fringe party led by flaky leaders and never have had much media attention.

In your fast-forward to 2013 you seem to have forgotten 2001, when under Adrienne Carr they got a *lot* of media attention through seeming poised to pick up the BCNDP spoils and threaten them for 2nd place--they fell short, but their 12% share that year remains their highest to date...


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on December 20, 2016, 09:53:56 AM
I'm not so sure Weaver will "fly" with voters. The former Green leader Jane Sterk was a kind of lovable old raging Granny Clampett type who was a classic "earth mother" and appealed to granola bars and treehuggers. In contrast Andrew Weaver comes across as a stuffy, condescending upper class twit with posh British accent and an inability to pronounce the letter "r". as in "I should like a gwass of cwawet with my dinnah tonight"...people thinking of voting Green will likely drop him like a hot potato the moment they see him in action.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 20, 2016, 01:34:46 PM

In your fast-forward to 2013 you seem to have forgotten 2001, when under Adrienne Carr they got a *lot* of media attention through seeming poised to pick up the BCNDP spoils and threaten them for 2nd place--they fell short, but their 12% share that year remains their highest to date...

Even in 2001, the BC Greens didn't receive that much media attention. It was a campaign whereby the media focused upon the BC Lib's Campbell and BC NDP's Dosanjh. Remember that one quite well.

Then BC Green leader Adrianne Carr was basically a twin of Elizabeth May and the then BC Greens were a party of/for granola bar eaters. As for the "spoils"? Not much there when ya have a 77 BC Lib - 2 BC NDP rout.

As an aside, just look at the southern German state of Baden-Württemberg - the second most "conservative" German state after Bavaria. In the 2016 Ba-Wu state election, the Greens came in first place, in terms of popular vote share, with the most seats. Ba-Wu also has the most popular German state premier in Green Party leader Winfried Kretschmann leading a green-black coalition gov't. Who would have thunk?

I'm not so sure Weaver will "fly" with voters. ... Andrew Weaver comes across as a stuffy, condescending upper class twit with posh British accent and an inability to pronounce the letter "r". as in "I should like a gwass of cwawet with my dinnah tonight"...people thinking of voting Green will likely drop him like a hot potato the moment they see him in action.

I suspect that most will disagree with ya:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=25x_sSvZUIo



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 20, 2016, 10:04:34 PM

In your fast-forward to 2013 you seem to have forgotten 2001, when under Adrienne Carr they got a *lot* of media attention through seeming poised to pick up the BCNDP spoils and threaten them for 2nd place--they fell short, but their 12% share that year remains their highest to date...

Even in 2001, the BC Greens didn't receive that much media attention. It was a campaign whereby the media focused upon the BC Lib's Campbell and BC NDP's Dosanjh. Remember that one quite well.

Then BC Green leader Adrianne Carr was basically a twin of Elizabeth May and the then BC Greens were a party of/for granola bar eaters. As for the "spoils"? Not much there when ya have a 77 BC Lib - 2 BC NDP rout.


If you "remember that one quite well", you don't remember the election *I* remember.  And what I remember is that the NDP fell into such disgrace and ignominy, the hitherto *truly* marginal GP (just under 2% of the provincial vote in 1996!) rose as an alternative disgruntled-left option to the point where they were virtually equalling the NDP in opinion polling.  And *that* got the media focussed upon the Carr wild card/spoiler element almost as much as the decreed "primary" Campbell/Dosanjh race--certainly an advance contradiction of your claim of its being "a fringe party led by flaky leaders [which] never [had] had much media attention."  True, the NDP (surely boosted by incumbents' dead cat bounces) reassumed its traditional 2nd place position by e-day; but even w/a deflated vote relative to earlier polling, the Carr Greens still jumped from 2% to 12.4%.  Those were provincial-level figures unprecedented for *any* Green entity in Canada.  *And*, you can blame "media attention" in part for this--that's what you get when an unforeseen outside force ("flaky" or not) threatens to upset the binary status quo.

Though of course to you, it "conveniently" doesn't matter because it was a 77 Lib-2 NDP election in the end, with the Greens shut out.  Well, just more confirmation of my judgment that when it comes to the poll-by-poll sensuality of psephology and the subtler tales that elections tell, you're a lousy lay--and honestly, even if the judgment *is* well founded through their political limitations, the way you try to drive in the point re May/Carr/Sterk still has an undercurrent of flaky-broad-bashing misogyny about it.  (Of course, Andrew Weaver's male, and for you that changes everything, I guess.  Premier Clark notwithstanding.)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 21, 2016, 01:32:09 AM
If you "remember that one quite well", you don't remember the election *I* remember.  And what I remember is that the NDP fell into such disgrace and ignominy, the hitherto *truly* marginal GP (just under 2% of the provincial vote in 1996!) rose as an alternative disgruntled-left option to the point where they were virtually equalling the NDP in opinion polling.

FWIW, off the bat, I actually wrote a paper on the BC 2001 BC election, after the fact, in a 100-level elective poli-sci course back in my UBC days.

Firstly, ya state that the BC NDP "were virtually equalling the NDP in opinion polling". Completely incorrect. Only 2 pollsters were extant in BC at that time - Mustel and Ipsos-Reid, which were both "CATI" pollsters.

Just went over to the internet archive and looked at Mustel's BC polling numbers throughout 2000 and 2001. The BC Greens NEVER were close to the BC NDP in opinion polling figures. AT ALL! BC Greens were always wayyyy behind the BC NDP - even in their dismal state. What are you smokin'? :)

Now the "greenest" seat in BC is Nelson-Creston. Bar none. No doubt about that. So I went over to the Election Prediction Project website for the 2001 BC election and reviewed the comments therein for the riding. Low and behold Bernard von Schulmann made a post therein - the same BvS who I referred to in an earlier post herein who is a self-described "centrist environmentalist" and former BC Green Party member.

His take on the "green" riding of Nelson-Creston on April 21, 2001?

Quote
   21/04/01   Bernard Schulmann   Email:bernard.schulmann@lillonet.org

Well, time to make some educated guesses on percentages. Some facts that we do know.

1) This is the only riding in BC where the Greens are as strong as a mainstream party in organisation.
2) Corky Evans has risen in stature over the years and is one of the few NDP MLAs from rural ridings that is seen as being rural resource friendly
3) Blair Sufferdine has a bit of the 'eau de loser' about from the failed PC bids.
4) A few too many people smoke dope in N-C and are flakey (as is the Marijauna candidate)
5) No other party will matter
So how will it turn out?
Liberals 40 (35-50)
NPD 35 (25-40)
Green 20 (15-25)
Marijuana 5

Yeah. That's right. A 3rd place prediction for the BC Greens. And he was pretty well "bang-on" with his prediction compared to the actual result... BC Lib: 39%/BC NDP: 32%/BC Green: 22%!

BTW, back in 2001 (and only in 2001) the BC Greens had a very unique campaign lawn sign. Describe it. I know.... ya can't. Because you obviously have no insight into the 2001 BC election. Period.  :D

... the way you try to drive in the point re May/Carr/Sterk still has an undercurrent of flaky-broad-bashing misogyny about it.  (Of course, Andrew Weaver's male, and for you that changes everything, I guess.  Premier Clark notwithstanding.)

Haha. That comment is soooooooo far out in left field I don't even know how to respond to same. OK. I will. If either my mom... or my Svenska wife... or her best buds.... or my li'l sis... or her best buds... would read your statement... they would undoubtedly and categorically describe ya as a complete and utter flake. It is what it is. ;)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 21, 2016, 02:06:59 AM
And the latest news involving the ongoing soap opera in the fringe BC Conservative Party:

Quote
BC Conservatives Probe President

Kelowna Daily Courier

Posted: Tuesday, December 20, 2016 9:12 pm
Andrea Peacock

The BC Conservatives remain without a leader and are investigating complaints into their president, months before the provincial election.

Early in November, BC Conservative leader Dan Brooks was ousted.

At the time, Brooks said the party’s board had ruled a party meeting that approved his candidacy for the September leadership race lacked a quorum and they stripped him of his leadership.

Konrad Pimiskern, a Kelowna financial adviser and runner-up in the leadership race for the BC Conservatives, said he was not interested in becoming the interim leader.

This week, he received word of an investigation into party president Corbin Mitchell.

“I got a phone call the other day from the board because some complaints were lodged against the person who is now the president of the party and they asked for my input on that,” said Pimiskern. “There (are) a lot of things that happened that shouldn’t have happened, and perhaps when they have a new president, then they’ll have an easier time attracting leadership candidates.”

For now, Pimiskern has stepped back from the party and has no immediate plans to re-enter the race for the upcoming election.

http://www.kelownadailycourier.ca/news/article_06339450-c73c-11e6-a599-7fca37014510.html#pq=R6VmHs


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 21, 2016, 08:41:23 AM
Now the "greenest" seat in BC is Nelson-Creston. Bar none. No doubt about that. So I went over to the Election Prediction Project website for the 2001 BC election and reviewed the comments therein for the riding. Low and behold Bernard von Schulmann made a post therein - the same BvS who I referred to in an earlier post herein who is a self-described "centrist environmentalist" and former BC Green Party member.

His take on the "green" riding of Nelson-Creston on April 21, 2001?

Quote
   21/04/01   Bernard Schulmann   Email:bernard.schulmann@lillonet.org

Well, time to make some educated guesses on percentages. Some facts that we do know.

1) This is the only riding in BC where the Greens are as strong as a mainstream party in organisation.
2) Corky Evans has risen in stature over the years and is one of the few NDP MLAs from rural ridings that is seen as being rural resource friendly
3) Blair Sufferdine has a bit of the 'eau de loser' about from the failed PC bids.
4) A few too many people smoke dope in N-C and are flakey (as is the Marijauna candidate)
5) No other party will matter
So how will it turn out?
Liberals 40 (35-50)
NPD 35 (25-40)
Green 20 (15-25)
Marijuana 5

Yeah. That's right. A 3rd place prediction for the BC Greens. And he was pretty well "bang-on" with his prediction compared to the actual result... BC Lib: 39%/BC NDP: 32%/BC Green: 22%!


Of course, you should consider that the "Corky Evans populism" element skewed things on behalf of the NDP in that N-C race, whatever the "inherent" Green strength.  And, 22% was still pretty good under the circumstance.  Plus, whatever the 2001 circumstance, as we all know, the Green-strength (if not *winning* strength, then at least *polling* strength) centre of gravity's subsequently shifted to May/Weaver territory--or just generally, away from the N-C "granola belt" to places where the NDP's already weak and they could serve as a safe Red Tory/Green Liberal option proxy--more "Weaver-esque" than "Carr/May/Sterk-esque", if you will.  (Think Whistler as opposed to Nelson.)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 21, 2016, 11:34:23 PM
Sigh. I should have previously been much more clearer.

Again. Back pre-2001 and during the 4-week 2011 election writ period, both Mustel and Ipsos-Reid were the only BC pollsters. And both were "CATI" pollsters.

During the 2001 writ period, both had the BC Libs, at various times up to between 65% and 72% in terms of voting intention. It was an unstoppable political juggernaut that portended a political slaughter in the making. The then granola-bar eating BC Greens were an irrelevant political side-show. If any. And still considered "fringe" back then.

Again. Final result: 77 BC Libs/2 BC NDP. And the BC NDP was lucky to hold on to those 2 seats by 2.1% and 11.4% margins respectively.

Back then, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer wrote, just before 2001 e-day, that a then unnamed BC NDP cabinet minister confided to him as follows:

"It feels akin to the fall of Saigon, back in 1975, when the NVA/Viet Kong were on the outskirts of Saigon and we are now awaiting helicopter evac from the rooftop of the U.S. embassy."

Since the BC Libs back then were up to 65% - 72% voting intention at various points in time (actually received 58%) nothing else mattered in that unique political dynamic.

Fast forward to 2017. Unlike "your mother's" Green party (pre-2017), the 2017 BC Green Party is a completely different political animal moving from fringe status to credible in terms of daily MSM coverage/quality of candidates, etc. Quite obvious if one is "on the ground" in BC. Weaver is positioning the BC Greens as a greenish, centrist "red" federal Liberal Party. Unlike pre-2017, those that don't take the Weaver-led BC Greens seriously/under-estimates them (both BC Libs and BC NDP) will undoubtedly be in for a surprise.

And I will leave the last word on the matter to BC NDP leader John Horgan in an interview with Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer: "The BC Greens will likely mow our lawn in 2017". Interpret that metaphor as ya wish.

PS. BC NDP leader John Horgan held an interview with the Globe & Mail a few days ago. Honestly, does this snippet therein "inspire confidence" in anyone?

Quote
In our interview, Mr. Horgan was very candid about himself. He confessed he is still learning things about politics, and about leading a modern political party. He’s also learning about what you can and can’t say publicly.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: warandwar on December 22, 2016, 01:08:24 AM
I think you made up that quote about mowing the lawn...



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 22, 2016, 01:36:24 AM
I think you made up that quote about mowing the lawn...


Haha. I was previously paraphrasing from memory... But (after much Googling) here's the actual BC NDP leader John Horgan quote from Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer's column of January 27, 2015:

Quote
[BC Greens] "may well cut our grass"

Yes. A quibble. But what's the diff?!


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on December 22, 2016, 09:11:50 AM
Sigh. I should have previously been much more clearer.

Again. Back pre-2001 and during the 4-week 2011 election writ period, both Mustel and Ipsos-Reid were the only BC pollsters. And both were "CATI" pollsters.

But you're applying post-facto inside-baseball 2016 judgment there.  If we go back to 2001-in-real-time, ***it did not matter whether they were "CATI" pollsters or not.  Misleading or not, obsolete-by-today's-standards or not, their numbers made an impression and defined the narrative.***  

Its like some daffy, asinine suggestion that because we all now know that the pre-Soundscan Billboard charts were "fixed", they're totally irrelevant in judging the pre-1990 pop/rock musical context.

Quote
During the 2001 writ period, both had the BC Libs, at various times up to between 65% and 72% in terms of voting intention. It was an unstoppable political juggernaut that portended a political slaughter in the making. The then granola-bar eating BC Greens were an irrelevant political side-show. If any. And still considered "fringe" back then.

Again. Final result: 77 BC Libs/2 BC NDP. And the BC NDP was lucky to hold on to those 2 seats by 2.1% and 11.4% margins respectively.

Back then, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer wrote, just before 2001 e-day, that a then unnamed BC NDP cabinet minister confided to him as follows:

"It feels akin to the fall of Saigon, back in 1975, when the NVA/Viet Kong were on the outskirts of Saigon and we are now awaiting helicopter evac from the rooftop of the U.S. embassy."

Since the BC Libs back then were up to 65% - 72% voting intention at various points in time (actually received 58%) nothing else mattered in that unique political dynamic.

That's like saying that for the Vancouver-to-Kamloops traveller, once the Coquihalla was built, the old Trans-Canada route via the Fraser River Canyon and Cache Creek "no longer mattered"--out of sight, out of mind except to a "fringe element" of dumb Griswoldian tourists and hair-shirt afficionados of creative highway anachronism.  (Never mind that the Coquihalla is as boring as xxx.  But to you, the *old* way might be boring as xxx; well, it's not my fault that you're an uninspired jerk.)

  Thus your desire to put your thumb on the 2001 BC Lib-landslide scale while totally dismissing the fact that the losers, and the scale of loss, and the schisms that underlay said loss were *at least* as important an element of the media coverage...and, "fringe" or not, the rise of the Greens at the apparent expense of the NDP was an important element in all of that.  It *didn't matter* whether the Greens were poised to win seats or not--even if they won no seats, even if the NDP only won two, they're an important element.  (And even if the Greens *were* fringe, at moments of political despair and/or impasse never dismiss the "reach" that fringe elements might have among voters--something that should be especially clear in these days of Trump and Ford and UKIP.)

No different from Chretien sweeping Ontario federally in 1993/97/2000.  To you, all that matters are the winners; to me, it's was just as fun to dissect how things shook out among the losers, i.e. the sexy "bigger picture"...



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on December 23, 2016, 05:47:41 PM
Vaughn Palmer mentioned in an article some time back that for a number of reasons John Horgan was disappointed with the slate of candidates the NDP ran in 2013.  After I had a brief back and forth with him, the one thing I agreed with him on with that was that the NDP were nowhere near as successful as the B.C Liberals in recruiting municipal politicians to the slate, as only nine of the NDP's 47 defeated candidates held municipal office (The NDP lost 51 ridings in 2013, but four were MLAs who were defeated.)

It may be a bit early to say for certain, but it seems the NDP is making an effort this time to recruit mayors, city/town councillors, school trustees, regional district directors and native band chiefs and councillors.

In the six ridings where NDP MLAs are retiring, three of the four new candidates hold or held elected office.

1.Burnaby-Deer Lake, Anne Kang, Burnaby City Councillor
2.Burnaby-Lougheed, Katrina Chen, School Trustee
3.Columbia River-Revelstoke, Gerry Taft, Mayor of the District of Invermere

16 New Democratic candidates have been nominated in non NDP ridings so far. Those who hold or held municipal office are:
1.Kamloops-South Thompson, Nancy Bepple, Kamloops City Councillor 2008-2014
2.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare, School Trustee
3.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed, Penticton City Councillor
4.Kootenay East, Randal MacNair, Fernie City Councillor and former Fernie Mayor
5.Abbotsford West, Preet Rai, School Trustee
6.Port Moody-Coquitlam, Rick Glumac, Port Moody City Councillor
7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Parksville City Councillor

One other nominated candidate, Jagrup Brar was an NDP MLA from 2004-2013, while former M.P (2011-2015) Jinny Sims has been nominated in Surrey-Panorama.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/41st_British_Columbia_general_election#Candidates

Also, for those who might have been concerned that the NDP would lose its connections to the high tech sector when Matt Toner bolted from the NDP to the Green Party, three of the candidates nominated so far hold management positions in the high tech sector or own high tech related businesses:

1.Morgane Oger, Vancouver-False Creek
2.Tarik Sayeed, Penticton
3.Rick Glumac, Port Moody-Coquitlam

A fourth New Democrat, Bowinn Ma, in North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a professional engineer.

Also, Gerry Taft is a gelato shop owner while Randal MacNair owns a small publishing firm. Who will represent white working class British Columbians?

More seriously though, this election to me is resembling more and more what happened in 1972.  The NDP thought it would win the 1969 election with the urbane lawyer Tom Berger as leader, but, sort of just like in 2013, he 'frightened' British Columbians with the idea of an NDP government (The NDP's slogan in that election was 'ready to govern.')  

After the defeat in 1969, most pundits thought Social Credit was a lock to be reelected in 1972 and then new leader Dave Barrett played into that by saying (this wasn't the NDP's slogan) "we just want to reduce the number of Social Credit MLAs"  Barrett later joked that to fellow New Democrats he would complete his sentence by adding "to zero."

I don't know if John Horgan will play up the NDP's underdog status in this election or not though.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 24, 2016, 05:13:12 AM


The following 2 posts are not to respond to the poster "Adam T" per se. These posts intend to flesh out and add further context to his comments thereto.

I will start here:

Quote
In the six ridings where NDP MLAs are retiring, three of the four new candidates hold or held elected office.

1.Burnaby-Deer Lake, Anne Kang, Burnaby City Councillor
2.Burnaby-Lougheed, Katrina Chen, School Trustee
3.Columbia River-Revelstoke, Gerry Taft, Mayor of the District of Invermere - Also, Gerry Taft is a gelato shop owner

I have previously provided, up-thread, an analysis of the foregoing ridings and will re-iterate some of same and provide some more salient factors thereto.

1. Burnaby municipal council is controlled by the BCA (Burnaby Citizens Association). They have been a very effective muni org. for decades. One must be a member of the BC NDP in order to be a member of the BCA. Typical municipal election turnouts in Burnaby are quite low - in the lower to upper 20% range. BTW, the BCA controls all council and school board seats in Burnaby. The centre-right has always been a joke in terms of their "election machine" thereto. Moreover, CUPE is heavily involved municipally in BC in terms of muni GOTV including Burnaby.

Since the BCA "controls" Burnaby municipally, Burnaby mayor Derek Corrigan is the chief spokes-person for Burnaby in all media. Burnaby councillors have no profile at all. Since the BC NDP provincially has always been lacking in terms of Chinese-Canadian candidates (unlike the BC Libs), they brought several "on-board" municipally in Burnaby in order to foster same potentially for future provincial/federal candidacies. Problem is both have been long-time NDP party stalwarts - Chen is long-time constituency assistant for MP Peter Julian while Kang is involved in BCTF.

Moreover Burnaby councillor Anna Kang is a terrible fit in Burnaby-Deer Lake. As I stated in a previous post - Burnaby council has rezoned 1,000's of units of 1960's/1970's era 3-storey walk-up rental apartment buildings to condominium towers. Well over 100 condo towers (half as high as 40-storeys) have either been completed, under construction, or in planning stage right now. Many of these rental apartment buildings are being torn down right now - these rental apt. building polling stations have traditionally heavily supported the BC NDP whereas the new condo tower polling stations have heavily supported the BC Libs in this marginal riding. Large protests have taken place in Burnaby and said matter has been all over both the provincial TV/print/radio media as well as local media.

The major Burnaby "Demoviction" spokesperson in the riding has been Rick McGowan, a teacher and founder of the Metrotown Residents’ Association opposing these Burnaby "Demovictions". BC Green leader Andrew Weaver attended a Burnaby "Demoviction" rally opposing same. BC NDP leader John Horgan has refused to attend same - can't blame him as he obviously doesn't wanna see a headline such as "BC NDP leader opposes Demovictions by Burnaby NDP council". Now Rick McGowan is the BC Green candidate in the riding who may well "eat" Burnaby councillor/BC NDP candidate Anna Kang's "lunch" in 2017. BTW, Kang is quite shy in terms of persona.

And lastly is newly nominated Columbia-River Revelstoke BC NDP candidate Gerry Taft in an open riding when popular incumbent BC NDP MLA Norm Macdonald stepped down as he likely saw the writing on the wall. BTW, when a BC NDP male candidate steps down, he must either be replaced by a female or a male of some "legitimate" minority group.

So the local BC NDP nomination contest was between Invermere mayor Gerry Taft and female Invermere councillor Spring Hawes (who was also wheelchair bound). After vetting, Taft was approved by BC NDP to run but his "minority"status, for the first time ever, was never disclosed. Yet Taft won. When local media inquired about his "minority" status he stated that he did not want the local BC NDP members to know. Or his family. Bizarre. Then the provincial media (Vancouver Sun, for example) focused on the matter as his female wheel-chair opponent Spring Hawes also thought some wrong-doing was going on. Taft finally gave into the pressure and declared that he was 'bi-sexual" even with a wife and newborn child. Remember, this is a somewhat socially conservative riding. Ever since then, Taft has been silent on social media. Now, after 13 years, Taft has announced that he has sold his "gelato shop". Coincidence?

Gets even more interesting. The BC NDP has never run a a disabled candidate... let alone a wheelchair-bound candidate. The current BC Libs have 2 wheelchair bound MLAs. The 1980's Socreds had one wheelchair bound MLA (Doug Mowatt). The female BC NDP candidate Spring Hawes (also wheelchair bound) believes the fix was in for her based upon her various media statements. On top of that, a BC Disability spokesperson, Paul Gilbert, also runs a Facebook page with ~9,000 followers. His take?


Quote
The BC NDP’s Bad Apple
BC DISABILITY CAUCUS·SATURDAY, OCTOBER 22, 2016 

Equity policies exist to include those who are unfairly marginalized because of prejudices and unconscious biases. Arguably, (Gerry Taft) the recently revealed bisexual successful white father with a female partner and former 3 term (liberal) mayor has not been marginalized and should never have been allowed to compete for the nomination.  Taft stated that,“the NDP said he could keep his status confidential, and had never planned to go public with personal information that few people in his community knew. ”

The BC NDP was unable to find a single disabled candidate to run in the last election and has no MLAs who have disclosed that they have a disability.  The NDP Provincial office ran a very privileged candidate against  “Spring Hawes, a (social democrat and) former Invermere councillor who uses a wheelchair” with predictable results.  Sadly, one has to wonder if the provincial office of the BC NDP has a problem with running candidates with disabilities.   

BC NDP president Craig Keating once told me that “the disabled are not part of the BC NDP brand.”

https://www.facebook.com/notes/bc-disability-caucus/the-bc-ndps-bad-apple/184735010551029

16 New Democratic candidates have been nominated in non NDP ridings so far. Those who hold or held municipal office are:
1.Kamloops-South Thompson, Nancy Bepple, Kamloops City Councillor 2008-2014
2.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare, School Trustee
3.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed, Penticton City Councillor
4.Kootenay East, Randal MacNair, Fernie City Councillor and former Fernie Mayor
5.Abbotsford West, Preet Rai, School Trustee
6.Port Moody-Coquitlam, Rick Glumac, Port Moody City Councillor
7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Parksville City Councillor

1. Nancy Bepple (Kamloops-South Thompson) - In the November, 2014 Kamloops municipal election, Bepple placed in 16th place for council out of 8 spots and was uncontested in the BC NDP nomination race. Local BC Green Party candidate and Kamloops councillor Donavan Cavers place 4th/8th place. Hell, Kamloops mayor Peter Milobar, with ~80% popular vote share in 2014, won the neighbouring riding of Kamloops-North Thompson in a 3-way race for the BC Libs after the BC Lib incumbent stepped down. The bc NDP candidate is a public sector union activist for the HEU. And K-ST is the most centre-right of the 2 ridings. BTW,  "Kamloops" has always been BC's bellwether riding. Since 1903, the political  party that has won Kamloops has won Gov't. Since Kamloops has been split, K-NT is now that "bellwether riding".

2. 2.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare, School Trustee - Beare is also the VP of a CUPE local and that BC NDP riding was uncontested.

3.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed, Penticton City Councillor - Agree that he is a good, young, "hi-tech" candidate. He placed 8/8 in the November, 2014 muni election. Problem is that the riding is WASPish. When the BC NDP ran Lakhwinder Jhal in an adjacent riding in 2009, the BC NDP dropped 8% . Remember that this area is not multi-cultural Vancouver. Finally, BC NDP HQ favoured candidate in this riding was Toni Boot.

4.Kootenay East, Randal MacNair, Fernie City Councillor and former Fernie Mayor - He ran for the BC NDP nomination in 2013 and lost against 2013 BC NDP candidate Norma Blissett who, in turn, lost by a a 26% margin on e-day. The 2017 BC NDP nomination rematch has MacNair the BC NDP nominee.

5.Abbotsford West, Preet Rai, School Trustee - he also ran back in 2013.

6.Port Moody-Coquitlam, Rick Glumac, Port Moody City Councillor - apparently most of his local council motions deal with outside matters "trying to save the planet'".

7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Parksville City Councillor - a very long-time BC NDP/ social activist running in the most right-wing riding on Van Isle.

Simply put, the BC NDP is nominating "municipal" candidates that are "wrong fits" in their respective ridings. Politics 101 dictates that one nominates local high profile municipal politicians in ridings that are not only previous "marginal races" but also "right demographic/political fits". Obviously not here.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 24, 2016, 05:13:35 AM
/2

One other nominated candidate, Jagrup Brar was an NDP MLA from 2004-2013, while former M.P (2011-2015) Jinny Sims has been nominated in Surrey-Panorama.

Jagrup Brar was defeated in Surrey-Fleetwood in 2013. Same as Harry Lali in Nicola-Nicola. And you think that it's a "good" thing for defeated candidates to run again, instead of politically fresh faces?
As for Surrey-Panorama, with transposed results, the BC Libs still win comfortably in 2013. And since then, major SFD as well as townhouse developments have continued within the riding unabated. The fed NDP came in 3rd place in much of the underlying provincial riding in 2015, while the fed Libs won most of the remaining underlying polling stations. Basically the BC NDP is running a failed recycled candidate here.

Well known centre-left BC blogger Laila Yuile, who resides in the riding, and knows same tweeted this out a couple of months ago:

Quote
Laila Yuile ‏@lailayuile  Oct 8
Just popping in with this. BIG mistake if NDP plans to run Jinny Sims in Panorama. Huge.


Matters have become more interesting, just recently, within the northern Surrey Indo-Canadian community. To preface, Barinder Rasode was a northern Surrey BC NDP constituency assistant in both 2005 and 2009 IIRC. Rasode was also a centre-left Surrey city councillor. During the November, 2014 Surrey municipal election, Rasode ran as the centre-left candidate supported by CUPE and former BC NDP MLA/cabinet minister/BC NDP party prez Moe Sihota et al.

The final 2014 Surrey mayoral results:

1. Linda Hepner (Dianne Watts successor) - centre-right - 50.7%
2. Doug McCallum (defeated by Dianne Watts) - right-wing - 28%
3. Barinder Rasode - centre-left - 21.3%

Within the past two weeks, it has become quite apparent that high profile, centre-left former Surrey councillor and mayoral candidate Basinder Rasode has defected from the BC NDP over to the BC Libs based upon her Twitter feed:

Quote
Barinder Rasode ‏@BarinderRasode  Dec 15 mortgage since I was 19.  #bcgov @christyclark @colemancountry doing what my dad did for me


Rich Coleman ‏@colemancountry  Dec 15
@BarinderRasode did you just call me dad??


Barinder Rasode ‏@BarinderRasode  Dec 15@colemancountry I guess I am!

Barinder Rasode ‏@BarinderRasode  Dec 17
.@norm52 thank you for your support. I support leadership with vision & implementation plan.  I grew up NDP.  Not the same party it was.


Barinder Rasode ‏@BarinderRasode  Dec 18
.@norm52 I grew up in #kamloops dad was #Iwa member. He had good job meaning quality of life for me. Working people priority.  Now? What?


The foregoing is not an isolated case. I have seen previously centre-left BC NDP folk on social media move over to either the BC Libs or BC Greens. Quite eye-opening actually.

Also, for those who might have been concerned that the NDP would lose its connections to the high tech sector when Matt Toner bolted from the NDP to the Green Party, three of the candidates nominated so far hold management positions in the high tech sector or own high tech related businesses:

1.Morgane Oger, Vancouver-False Creek
2.Tarik Sayeed, Penticton
3.Rick Glumac, Port Moody-Coquitlam

Hell, back in 2013 high-profile hi-tech entrepreneur Matt Toner was the best BC NDP candidate that they ran IMHO - "outside the box" in terms of the usual SJWs, social activists, enviro activists, and public sector union activists.

In any event, centrist Matt Toner left the BC NDP for the BC Greens. Why? He came to the conclusion that the BC NDP “is trying to solve 1960s problems with 1990s people.” One must also remember that the riding of Vancouver-False Creek is centre-right demographically - contains most of the condo towers in downtown Van City mostly populated by urban professionals. In 2011 federally, many/most polling stations therein shifted to fed Con from fed Lib previously in 2006. Basically a red tory/blue liberal demographic.

The BC NDP replacement candidate in 2017 is Morgane Oger. Her only claim to fame is as a champion of transgendered-rights. That's why she was nominated. Honestly, both I and most of the electorate don't give a sh**te about a candidate's personal sexual background. All parties run candidates of LGBQT background but they don't brag about it. Here, for the first time, that's the case. One helluva political turnoff, IMHO, even when the riding is a BC NDP dead zone.

A fourth New Democrat, Bowinn Ma, in North Vancouver-Lonsdale is a professional engineer.

Bowinn Ma is a long time BC NDP activist and SJW. Furthermore, she has no profile in the riding but is of Chinese-Canadian decent - NV-L does not have much of a Chinese-Canadian demographic. OTOH, back in 2013, the BC NDP ran high profile North Van City councillor Craig Keating here.

More seriously though, this election to me is resembling more and more what happened in 1972.  The NDP thought it would win the 1969 election with the urbane lawyer Tom Berger as leader, but, sort of just like in 2013, he 'frightened' British Columbians with the idea of an NDP government (The NDP's slogan in that election was 'ready to govern.')  

After the defeat in 1969, most pundits thought Social Credit was a lock to be reelected in 1972 and then new leader Dave Barrett played into that by saying (this wasn't the NDP's slogan) "we just want to reduce the number of Social Credit MLAs"  Barrett later joked that to fellow New Democrats he would complete his sentence by adding "to zero."

Haha. Honestly, that's gotta be the (or one of) dumbest analogies in this thread. Back in 1972, Social Credit Premier WAC Bennett was 20 years in power. He was 72 (?) years old. Bennett led a mostly right-wing, socially conservative caucus with many elected back in the 1950's. By the mid-1960's, social revolution/reformism began to take hold and that impacted the BC political scene. No doubt.

BTW, if a political leader decides to hang on for more than a decade akin to WAC Bennett, without political leadership "change", the electorate will make that "change" for them. Poli 101. As a matter of fact, 1972 was the first year that my folks were eligible to vote - they both voted NDP as WAC Bennett considered himself to be a "God". Ouch.

Now the year 1969 has also been brought up. As a matter of fact, I have also brought up the year 1969 myself over the past few years. In that vein, I have no doubt that the BC NDP will receive its lowest popular vote share since 1969 in 2017 aside from the 2001 debacle. Just too much CATI data, corroborating evidence, and anecdotal evidence.

I don't know if John Horgan will play up the NDP's underdog status in this election or not though.

Horgan is the most invisible BC political leader that I have ever seen. As Global BC TV news political analyst Keith Baldrey has stated, Horgan deliberately eschews/avoids the BC media. Have never seen that before. In fact, media analysis confirms that the BC preem receives BC's most MSM coverage, then BC Green leader Weaver, and then BC NDP leader Horgan in 3rd place. Again, that has never happened before. At all.

Moreover, long-time Vancouver Sun analyst Vaughn Palmer recently wrote that BC NDP leader Horgan is "off-putting" in terms of his persona. He has previously wrote about Horgan's numerous "bozo eruptions" in the BC legislature requiring other BC NDP MLAs to hold him back.

Now, on social media, many BC NDP stalwarts want Horgan to step down in favour of someone else in fear of losing the 2017 BC election. Go figure.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on December 24, 2016, 09:11:19 AM
1. Nancy Bepple (Kamloops-South Thompson) - In the November, 2014 Kamloops municipal election, Bepple placed in 16th place for council out of 8 spots

I don't know the details of why she ended up in 16th place, but Bepple resigned from city council in March of 2014 due to health concerns and then later decided to run again in the November 2014 election.  So, she was not an incumbent city councillor when she placed 16th.

http://www.kamloopsthisweek.com/kamloops-coun-nancy-bepple-resigns/


The important thing is being better known in the community which is what holding municipal office affords.  I take the rest of your comments recognizing them as the absurdly biased nonsense that they are.

I would regard the rest of Lotuslander's comments along the lines of "Yes, the NDP nominated Jesus Christ, but he's running in a riding with a large Jewish population, and there's no way they'd vote for him."

For anyone curious, I do have Lotuslander on ignore.  But since he commented right after my post, I figured he replied to what I wrote so I clicked 'show.'  For instance, I skipped over the discussion between he and Adma because there's no point in reading one side of a discussion.   (Sorry Adma!)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on December 29, 2016, 04:38:57 AM

As for the BC NDP nomination race itself, always tough to call... but I am leaning toward Georgia Collins. Collins ran for the fed NDP nomination in Cowichan-Malahat for the 2015 race, in a 4-person race IIRC, and was just narrowly edged out by now incumbent fed NDP MP Alistair MacGregor.

Collins is now the local fed NDP riding prez and is attractive, has a good persona and has some profile on a local high profile Shawnigan Lake issue within the riding.

In the foregoing, I was referring to the Cowichan Valley BC NDP nomination race set for early January, 2017 and that Georgia Collins was the highest profile candidate in the riding and I suspected that she would win. While Cowichan Valley will be a very tight race in 2017, had Georgia Collins won she would have been a major star in the BC NDP caucus.

Well, tonight Georgia Collins posted this on her Facebook page:

Quote
I have made the decision to withdraw my candidacy from the race to become the Cowichan Valley BC NDP candidate for the upcoming provincial election.

I wish I could say that my decision is unrelated to sexism and harassment that I experienced during my campaign, but that would be untrue. I wish I could say that I was not disappointed by the party’s capacity to respond to such concerns, but that would also be untrue.

The status quo, it seems, carries on even in places you least expect it.

HUGE loss here. Not an isolated case and points to, amongst many other indicators, the BC NDP heading for a train-wreck in 2017. BTW, considerable blow-back and angst tonight among BC NDP supporters, in social media, as well.

Toss the foregoing into long-time BC political analyst Keith Baldrey's column (Global BCTV) and quip thereto from today and one should begin to get the drift:

Quote
BC NDP leader John Horgan is simply an empty vessel for most voters as his public profile continues to be almost zero.

And then might as well toss in well-known, centre-left, anti-BC Lib blogger Laila Yuile's tweet from yesterday regarding apparent BC voter majority support for the BC Libs :

Quote
Laila Yuile ‏@lailayuile

5:31 PM - 27 Dec 2016

Because no one shows them an alternative. Libs have boxed NDP in with highly effective messaging. NDP have not been able to counter.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on December 30, 2016, 05:54:00 PM
It turns out I will have a happy election no matter the result.  I just found out yesterday I am in the new riding of Richmond-Queensborough while Linda Reid is running (again) in Richmond East.  

The Liberal candidate in Queensborough  (and almost certainly the next MLA) is a well respected former journalist named Jas Johal.  As much as I dislike Christy Clark, I could vote for him.

The NDP candidate in Queensborough, though not yet officially nominated, will almost certainly be a human rights lawyer named Amandeep Singh.

http://singhthindlaw.com/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on January 05, 2017, 10:15:51 PM
Again, keep an eye on the Andrew Weaver-led BC Greens - Weaver is positioning the party as a greenish, centrist, federal "red" Liberal type of party moving them from fringe status into credibility.

Must say that the BC Greens are putting together/assembling a very credible/impressive slate of candidates to date. In some/many cases, even better than the two majors. Apparently several mayors are in the pipeline (one in Greater Victoria) and yesterday the first of 4 CEOs of high-tech companies was announced:

Quote
Greens of BC
Advisory: Announcement event for Jerry Kroll campaign for Vancouver-Mount Pleasant tomorrow

January 03, 2017

VANCOUVER B.C. – Jerry Kroll, B.C. Green Party candidate for Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, will formally announce his candidacy tomorrow afternoon. Kroll is President and CEO of ElectraMeccanica Vehicles Corp, which will begin mass production of one-person electric commuter cars for delivery this year. Party leader Andrew Weaver and other Metro Vancouver candidates will be in attendance for his announcement.

WHEN: Wed. Jan. 4, 2017 at 3:00pm

WHERE: Jerry Kroll campaign office – unit 105, Kingsgate Mall (370 Broadway E, Vancouver)

In attendance:

Candidates

Andrew Weaver, B.C. Green Party leader (Gordon Head-Oak Bay)
Jonina Campbell, New Westminster School Board trustee and former chair, and teacher (New Westminster)
Joe Keithley, musician (Burnaby-Lougheed)
Rick McGowan, teacher and founder of Metrotown Residents’ Association (Burnaby-Deer Lake)
Ellisa Calder, information technology consultant (Vancouver-Kingsway)
Peter Tam, computer science engineer and entrepreneur (Maple Ridge-Mission)

Members seeking nomination

Roy Sakata, former teacher and principal (Richmond-Steveston)
Janet Fraser, former Vancouver School Board trustee/chair and teacher (Vancouver-Langara)

http://www.bcgreens.ca/announcement_event_for_jerry_kroll_campaign_for_vancouver_mount_pleasant_tomorrow


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vega on January 05, 2017, 11:11:58 PM
Again, keep an eye on the Andrew Weaver-led BC Greens - Weaver is positioning the party as a greenish, centrist, federal "red" Liberal type of party moving them from fringe status into credibility.

That makes two parties seeking to replicate that strategy.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on January 06, 2017, 02:16:28 AM
Again, keep an eye on the Andrew Weaver-led BC Greens - Weaver is positioning the party as a greenish, centrist, federal "red" Liberal type of party moving them from fringe status into credibility.

That makes two parties seeking to replicate that strategy.

As far as I can see, and I follow BC politics to a "T", only BC Greens following that strategy.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on January 08, 2017, 05:48:42 PM
As an aside, this is back.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2017_bc/index.php


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vega on January 08, 2017, 07:02:20 PM
As an aside, this is back.

http://www.electionprediction.org/2017_bc/index.php

Bold.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 10, 2017, 09:23:03 PM
Huntingdon retiring. https://twitter.com/keithbaldrey/status/819006502233112577


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on January 10, 2017, 09:56:06 PM
Huntingdon retiring. https://twitter.com/keithbaldrey/status/819006502233112577

Yeah. Saw that within past 1/2 hour as well. Nobody saw that coming. At all. Unfortunate and big surprise. BTW, Vicki Huntington was a greenish red tory and the daughter of 1980's- era federal PC cabinet minister Ron Huntington (West Vancouver federal riding).

I grew up in the riding of Delta South (Tsawwassen/Ladner). Vicki Huntington was a slam dunk to win again in 2017. It has small "c" conservative demographics and now will likely revert back to the BC Lib fold - their candidate is a municipal councillor who topped both the Tsawwassen/Ladner polling stations in the November, 2014 Delta municipal election.

PS. Vicki's story in the local Delta Optimist newspaper:

http://www.delta-optimist.com/news/vicki-huntington-not-running-again-1.6945508


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on January 10, 2017, 11:38:51 PM
Yeah. Saw that within past 1/2 hour as well. Nobody saw that coming. At all. Unfortunate and big surprise. BTW, Vicki Huntington was a greenish red tory and the daughter of 1980's- era federal PC cabinet minister Ron Huntington (West Vancouver federal riding).

Actually, West Van was then called "Capilano"; and Huntington was barely "80s-era" in cabinet, having served Joe Clark and retiring right before the Mulroney landslide.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on January 10, 2017, 11:55:31 PM
In other BC political news today, a business group has now launched a major $multi-million ad campaign against BC NDP leader John Horgan.

Horgan has a major problem here as, unlike previous BC NDP leaders, Horgan remains essentially invisible in the BC media. In fact, Global BC Newshour political analyst Keith Baldrey has previously written that Horgan "deliberately eschews the media". Frankly, a bizarre strategy esp. considering that Horgan is mostly unknown to the BC electorate.

As a result, Horgan sets himself up to be negatively "defined" to the BC public by others.

Was a major news item tonight on the Global BC 6 pm news with Keith Baldrey (As an aside, Global BC's 6 pm newscast, for decades, has been the highest rated newscast in BC):

http://globalnews.ca/video/3173576/election-attack-ads-target-john-horgan/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on January 12, 2017, 10:05:51 AM
Clark has approved Kinder Morgan. (http://theprovince.com/opinion/columnists/mike-smyth-with-kinder-morgan-approval-premier-clark-draws-her-line-in-the-oil-sands)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on January 13, 2017, 12:35:23 AM

As for the BC NDP nomination race itself, always tough to call... but I am leaning toward Georgia Collins. Collins ran for the fed NDP nomination in Cowichan-Malahat for the 2015 race, in a 4-person race IIRC, and was just narrowly edged out by now incumbent fed NDP MP Alistair MacGregor.

Collins is now the local fed NDP riding prez and is attractive, has a good persona and has some profile on a local high profile Shawnigan Lake issue within the riding.

In the foregoing, I was referring to the Cowichan Valley BC NDP nomination race set for early January, 2017 and that Georgia Collins was the highest profile candidate in the riding and I suspected that she would win. While Cowichan Valley will be a very tight race in 2017, had Georgia Collins won she would have been a major star in the BC NDP caucus.

Well, tonight Georgia Collins posted this on her Facebook page:

Quote
I have made the decision to withdraw my candidacy from the race to become the Cowichan Valley BC NDP candidate for the upcoming provincial election.

I wish I could say that my decision is unrelated to sexism and harassment that I experienced during my campaign, but that would be untrue. I wish I could say that I was not disappointed by the party’s capacity to respond to such concerns, but that would also be untrue.

The status quo, it seems, carries on even in places you least expect it.

HUGE loss here. Not an isolated case and points to, amongst many other indicators, the BC NDP heading for a train-wreck in 2017. BTW, considerable blow-back and angst tonight among BC NDP supporters, in social media, as well.

More NDP fallout in the same Cowichan Valley riding (on Van Isle) today:

Quote
Cowichan Valley NDP riding president resigns over equity policy

by  Robert Barron - Cowichan Valley Citizen
Cowichan Valley posted Jan 12, 2017 at 2:00 PM

Ian Morrison, president of the Cowichan Valley NDP riding association, has resigned his post just days before the nomination meeting to choose a candidate to replace Bill Routley, the long-time NDP MLA for the Valley who is retiring.

Morrison, who wanted to run in the race to replace Routley, announced Jan. 12 that he will run as an independent candidate instead for the Valley in this spring’s provincial election.

He cited the NDP’s new “equity-mandate” policy that is preventing him from running for the candidacy as the reason for his resignation.

...

http://www.cowichanvalleycitizen.com/news/410572595.html

Vancouver Sun political reporter tweeted his thoughts today:

Quote
Rob Shaw ‏@robshaw_vansun  6 hours ago

The gender equity policy strikes again… I wonder if we’re watching the NDP implode in a riding that used to be a guaranteed win.

Clark has approved Kinder Morgan. (http://theprovince.com/opinion/columnists/mike-smyth-with-kinder-morgan-approval-premier-clark-draws-her-line-in-the-oil-sands)

Yep. Was major news all over BC media yesterday. The BC Environmental Assessment Office approved KM with about 37 additional conditions over the feds.

Strange thing though. Yesterday, heard BC NDP leader John Horgan make this statement on the news:

Quote
"I believe that those in the Interior don't have the same perspective that those of us on the coast."

Obviously in reference to the KM decision. Raised the eyebrows of many... inclusive of some media. Seems that Horgan is pitting "US" on the coast against interior BC residents. First thought that came to my mind was that Horgan was essentially throwing the BC NDP under the bus in interior BC.

This afternoon, Kamloops-North Thompson BC Lib nominee Peter Milobar (current Kamloops mayor) asked Horgan to apologize:

Quote
CFJC-TV News

Milobar calls on Horgan to apologize for 'condescending' Trans Mountain comment
By James Peters
January 12, 2017 - 4:48pm

Kamloops-North Thompson Liberal Candidate Peter Milobar is calling for NDP Leader John Horgan to apologize for remarks about Interior residents after yesterday's environmental approval of the Kinder Morgan Trans Mountain pipeline expansion proposal.

Horgan, who adamantly opposes the project, was asked about the support of Interior residents.

"I believe that those in the Interior don't have the same perspective that those of us on the coast... That's a challenge for not just me, as leader of the New Democratic Party, not just for anyone involved in the political process. This is not a partisan question, it is a B.C. challenge," stated Horgan.

Milobar says he interpreted Horgan's remarks to mean Interior residents lack perspective.

"Well it is really around the tone of 'perspective,' and the demeanor that it was delivered in. Really, we have been hearing that up in the Interior now for quite a few years from people opposed about Kinder Morgan from down in the Lower Mainland. It really did feel like a pat on the head, that us folks in the Interior just don't quite understand things," Milobar told CFJC Today.

Milobar says Horgan should apologize, but he adds he's not holding his breath.

http://cfjctoday.com/article/555398/milobar-upset-ndp-leaders-comments

Yep. The 2017 campaign has unofficially begun.




Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on January 15, 2017, 04:30:43 AM
I'm not sure what the issue is. Of course people in different regions of the province have different perspectives on any number of issues. Tell me something i didnt already know. in fact on this site we all endlessly pontificate about the views of people in the City of Vancouver or the island or the interior or the Fraser valley etc... When people go berserk hyperventilating about a politician committing a "gaffe" it almost always means the politician said something that everyone knows is true.

On a similar note a while ago Christy Clark said that she hated all people in Victoria because people who live there are not "real people", now THAT is a true gaffe!


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on January 16, 2017, 12:20:04 AM
Well this should heat up the election, NYT article on BC Liberals corruption.

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/01/13/world/canada/british-columbia-christy-clark.html?referer=https://www.google.ca/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on January 16, 2017, 02:16:38 AM
That's "old" news. Reported upon extensively by Gary Mason of the Globe and Mail et al last fall.

Back then, one of the the most bizarre matters coming out of same was BC NDP leader John Horgan flying out to Toronto to attend a $5,000/plate BC NDP fundraiser organized by a Ontario nuclear energy lobbyist. And then lying about it to a BC reporter.

The BC Greens, who have disavowed all union/business donations, are laughing all the way to the political bank on this issue.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on February 02, 2017, 02:23:13 AM
From long time Global BC news political analyst Keith Baldrey: [snippets]

Quote
February 1, 2017

BC NDP’s John Horgan charts a new green path

By Keith Baldrey   
Global News

It only received scant media attention but the speech recently given by NDP leader John Horgan on climate change could prove to be a groundbreaking moment for his party and for B.C. politics as a whole.

Speaking last week to a left-wing think tank that included prominent environmentalists on its program, Horgan outlined how he will closely align his party’s election platform to bold initiatives to fight climate change.

He’s evidently thinking a lot about it now, and has taken the position that it is the most important issue of all and therefore has to be aggressively fought against. All NDP policies presumably have to be based on this commitment.

As proof of that change, he offered what he called “a simple pledge” to the appreciative green crowd.

“I promise a climate plan that will ensure emissions go down — that we will reverse the trajectory of pollution growth that the B.C. Liberals have put us on,” Horgan said, adding that a “fair price on pollution” is needed and that a series of other policies must be adopted in short time.

Presumably, this ends any chance the NDP could ever officially embrace any LNG project, given the increase in greenhouse gas emissions that come with them. It may also weaken its support for the mining industry and some other resource-based industries.

All in all, his speech made it crystal clear the NDP is trying to make a clean break from a past where it was closely aligned with the natural resource sector and its unions.  I’ve long wondered how Horgan could go from being so pro-industry to being all-in on fighting climate change, but his speech explained that in detail.

The new approach may cost the party some old allies, but it may also gain it support from would-be Green Party voters. Whatever the result at the ballot box on May 9th, it’s clear Horgan is taking his party on a path not even dreamed of when it last formed government in this province.

http://globalnews.ca/news/3220692/bc-ndps-john-horgan-charts-a-new-green-path/

Essentially, the BC NDP has now written off resource-industry dependent interior BC ridings and likely 3 incumbent BC NDP seats - Skeena, Stikine, and Columbia River-Revelstoke will be lost in 2017. Even the resource dependent riding of North Island on Van Isle may be lost, as another example.

Seems that the BC NDP is shrinking its potential voter pool, as a result, focusing on a matter that will likely only resonate in some inner Van City proper ridings and southern Van Isle ridings. Also seems that the NDP sees its political enemy as the BC Greens and is leaving the BC Liberals free reign everywhere else.

Problem with that strategy is that not only does it not lead to government but if voters have a real Green Party and a faux Green Party to select from, they typically vote for the real thing. Witness the 2015 CA federal election with the Mulcair-led NDP positioning themselves as "Liberals" at the outset of the campaign with the electorate deciding to actually vote for the real thing on e-day.

BTW, the first thing that came to mind with the BC NDP's new "Green Shift" was federal Liberal leader Stephane Dion and his then "Green Shift" during the 2008 federal election campaign. Didn't work out too well at the end of the proverbial day.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on February 02, 2017, 10:43:42 PM
Just a follow-up to my post yesterday. Today, BC NDP leader John Horgan held a press conference on the BC NDP's climate change policies. Here is where the matter certainly gets interesting...

1 1/2 hours before Horgan's press conference, the BC Liberals leaked a strategic internal BC NDP document referencing the BC NDP's climate change policies entitled "Communications Planning -
DRAFT NOT FOR CIRCULATION".

Here's the document:

https://www.scribd.com/document/338245199/NDP-Communications-Plan-DRAFT#fullscreen&from_embed

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/b-c-liberals-undercut-ndps-climate-plan-with-leaked-copy

Tonight on Global BC's 6 pm newscast, long-time political analyst Keith Baldrey stated that it appears a "mole is present in the highest echelons of BC NDP leaking documents to BC Liberals, which must be disconcerting to BC NDP leader Horgan".

Tonight, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer references same in his column [snippet]:

Quote
Several of the New Democratic Party’s political anxieties were placed on the public record Thursday, thanks to a leaked copy of the planning document for Opposition leader John Horgan’s promise to increase the carbon tax starting in 2020.

The “not for circulation draft” of the NDP communications plan was obtained by the B.C. Liberals and released to the news media 90 minutes before the Opposition party’s own news conference on the subject.

Horgan didn’t disavow the document. He could scarcely do that when his presentation echoed numerous passages in the leaked copy word for word.

For all that Horgan tried to minimize the embarrassment of the apparent act of treachery from within his own organization, I was struck by how the document revealed the behind-the-scenes political thinking that shaped Thursday’s announcement.

“We do not want to, and cannot afford to, leave this opening for the Green party,” said a telling passage in the list of strategic considerations that went into the NDP decision to hike the carbon tax.

Publicly, New Democrats dismiss Green party leader Andrew Weaver as a one-man show. Privately, they fret about him poaching their supporters, splitting the vote in swing ridings and perhaps crossing the four-seat threshold to gain official party status in the legislature at the NDP’s expense.

As well as the announcement on the carbon tax, fear of Weaver likely contributed to Horgan’s increasingly hostile stance on other issues, like Site C and liquefied natural gas development.

Another standout passage on the list of strategic considerations raised another fear: “If we do not have a specific proposal, Premier Christy Clark will make one up for us (‘They’re planning to raise your carbon tax, but they won’t tell you when or how much until after the election’), as she has already done in ads.

After losing four elections in a row, New Democrats are understandably concerned about the governing party’s ability to brand them as tax-and-spend before they get around to branding themselves.

Witness the followup discussion on how things could play out after the decision to hike the B.C. carbon tax so it reaches the federal target for a Canada-wide rate starting in 2022.

“The B.C. Liberals will call it a tax increase — and they’ll holler from the rooftops in rural B.C.,” concedes the NDP planning document.

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-john-horgan-spins-leak-on-carbon-tax-hike-to-pump-up-ndp-plan

Never a dull moment in BC politics.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on February 02, 2017, 11:20:39 PM
Epilogue.

Vancouver Sun legislative reporter Rob Shaw noted in his news article today:

Quote
It’s the second time the B.C. Liberals have obtained Horgan’s internal records. The party also had his planned remarks to restrict the grizzly bear hunt in November 2016.

And Rob Shaw just posted on Twitter:

Quote
Rob Shaw Verified account
‏@robshaw_vansun

I think 2 leaks of Horgan's internal strategy is significant this close to elxn. Esp on a major issue

Begs the question... what's the motivation behind the obvious internal BC NDP "mole"?! And what more damage can he do? Wouldn't be surprised if the BC NDP is conducting an internal witch hunt right now.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on February 04, 2017, 01:30:55 AM
More on this "Deep Throat" within the upper echelon BC NDP ranks tonight [snippet]:

Quote
B.C. NDP doesn’t need a secret agent in its ranks

GARY MASON
THE GLOBE AND MAIL
5 HOURS AGO

But today, the provincial New Democrats must confront that reality: There is someone on their team who doesn't want them to win the next election. In fact, this person (or persons?) has covertly being aiding the enemy in the form of document leaks that have been going straight to the Premier's office for some time. If NDP Leader John Horgan doesn't think this is a problem that reflects unkindly on his leadership, he is kidding himself.

The latest act of sabotage took place this week. Before Mr. Horgan unveiled the climate-action plan on which he intends to campaign this spring, the contents of his announcement were released by the Liberals. The material that was sent to the governing party was extensive, and included the Opposition Leader's speaking notes, key talking points he expected his team to use and an outline of how the NDP intended to shape the climate debate during the election campaign.

Naturally, Premier Christy Clark's office was only too happy to take the information and use it to mock Mr. Horgan ahead of his news conference. The disclosure of the NDP's messaging strategy isn't a fatal blow. The government would have surmised pretty quickly where the NDP was going with its plans for the environment, and where it, in turn, was vulnerable to attack. Still, the document leak did manage to steal some excitement away from Mr. Horgan and distract focus away from a climate plan that is more aggressive than Ms. Clark's.

If the covert disclosure of insider information had been a one-off, then Mr. Horgan might not be worrying as much as he likely is this morning. But it was not.

There have been other leaks, more than the Opposition even knows. I'm talking about information that is leaving the NDP offices and ending up in the hands of senior officials in Ms. Clark's office.

Before this, it was Mr. Horgan's announcement ending the grizzly-bear trophy hunt – a draft of the announcement as well as the accompanying media strategy was gift-wrapped and delivered to Ms. Clark's team. That information was immediately turned over to members of the media, with the requisite Liberal spin on what the NDP was proposing and why it was bad policy.

Notes from meetings of the NDP's provincial council have also been passed along.

Naturally, there is a great deal of speculation about who the traitor might be. A disgruntled staffer? Or perhaps even an MLA who became an embittered, malcontent somewhere along the way? Who knows? Politics is a vicious sport, where acts of duplicity and treachery are not uncommon.

Understandably, there are many New Democrats in Victoria who are incensed about what has taken place. It is unnerving for them to think there is someone among them actively engaged in subterfuge to a nefarious end.

As I say, it's difficult enough trying to defeat a government that has stacked the deck so dramatically in its favour. The NDP doesn't need a spy working within its operations, passing along policy game plans to its opponents to make the task even more difficult.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-ndp-doesnt-need-a-secret-agent-in-its-ranks/article33902362/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&cmpid=rss1&utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter&service=mobile

Long-time Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey also stated last night on the 6 pm newscast that, in his ~3-decade role, he has never seen anything like this before.

Something akin to "Deep Throat" during the 1970's Nixon era... except reversed.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on February 04, 2017, 09:29:23 AM
In the lead up to the 2013 election the BC Liberals were the ones leaking like a sieve with daily brown Manila enevelopes being delivered to journalists with inside dirt on Charity Clark's corruption (remember "quick wins") and all the endless conspiracies to dump her as leader that were going on literally right up to Election Day. Remember that Christy Clark became leader of her party despite no caucus support whatsoever and many people hated her for it within her own party and wanted to sabotage her. It's disconcerting for parties to know that people inside the tent are leaking stuff, but it happens and almost never actually influences the results of the following election...unless something is leaked that leads to criminal charges

I wonder if Putin is behind these latest leaks. If he d'avoir Donald Trump, why wouldn't he also d'avoir Christy Clark


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on February 04, 2017, 10:43:36 PM
That's a bit over the top DL. But you are correct on the "Quick Wins" matter involving the BC Libs. Received considerable media attention commencing back in February, 2013 - 3 months before the May, 2013 BC election - moving forward.

It involved the BC NDP leaking a document from 13 months earlier dated January, 2012. BTW here's one of the first media pieces by CBC dated February 27, 2013:

Quote
Leaked documents reveal Liberals' plan to win ethnic vote

Document outlines "quick wins" such as making apologies for historical wrongs

CBC News Posted: Feb 27, 2013 5:46 PM PT

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/leaked-documents-reveal-liberals-plan-to-win-ethnic-vote-1.1325543

I will further clarify what Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey stated about the recent BC NDP "leaks" - To paraphrase: "In my almost 30 years I have never seen an opposition party's internal strategic documents leaked to the gov't party".

Remember, election campaigns are akin to military ops. And when a political party (the BC Libs in this instance) is in receipt of "real time" internal strategic BC NDP documents... it's akin to delivering your opponents strategy to the other side on a military battlefield. The general in receipt of same will make appropriate moves to render his opponent  impotent in order to go in for the proverbial kill.

To date, these "real time" internal BC NDP strategic documents (with all detailed briefing notes) include:

1. BC NDP's climate strategy;
2. BC NDP's plan to ban grizzly bear hunt;
3. BC NDP provincial council meeting notes;

Who knows what else has been passed along but not disclosed by BC Libs?

Undoubtedly a "mole" or "Deep Throat" exists within the highest echelon of the BC NDP.

As an aside, about 10 months ago, a major internal political document of the USW was leaked to the BC media regarding concerns about the BC NDP's apparent anti-resource development policies, etc. Remember that the USW membership in interior BC mines (metallurgical coal/ base metal) typically vote heavily BC Liberal during elections. Here is the leaked memo:

https://www.scribd.com/doc/308880372/Steelworker-Memo#fullscreen&from_embed

The contents therein were very revealing. OTOH, western Canadian USW director Steve Hunt is still publicly a major BC NDP leader Horgan backer.

Now we are seeing the BC NDP morphing into a quasi-"Green Party". Also seems that the BC NDP is seeing the BC Green Party as its actual political enemy - not the BC Libs. Bizarre strategy BTW.

With the foregoing background... just speculation and conjecture on my part... but my hunch is that the "Deep Throat" within the BC NDP may well be a pro-resource, private sector union individual extremely unhappy with Horgan's plan to morph the BC NDP into another BC Green Party.

My 2 cents.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on February 05, 2017, 12:46:39 AM
Another matter involving BC NDP leader John Horgan and his name recognition. Last Thursday, the major Metro Vancouver news/talk show/radio station CKNW went to the streets of downtown Vancouver in order to ascertain if they know who John Horgan even is. Their findings:

Quote
Who is this man? NDP Leader John Horgan on the electoral challenge ahead

Vancouver, BC, Canada / News Talk 980 CKNW | Vancouver's News. Vancouver's Talk
Simon Little
Posted: February 02, 2017

With less than 100 days to go before the next election, the man who hopes to unseat Premier Christy Clark isn’t just fighting the BC Liberals – he’s also fighting for name recognition.

CKNW conducted an informal street poll in downtown Vancouver, and of just over 70 people asked only five were able to identify NDP leader John Horgan.

...

http://www.cknw.com/2017/02/02/who-is-this-man-ndp-leader-john-horgan-on-the-electoral-challenge-ahead/

That's just 7% name recognition.

Moreover, BC NDP leader has not yet been "defined" to the BC electorate.

A business group called "Say Anything John" has now swamped BC TV media with their TV ad, which I mentioned in this thread earlier on. Said TV ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO39hzefUZo

Take this as a grain of salt if ya wish... but I have asked, what I would call non-political swing voters, their impression of the individual in this TV ad - John Horgan (watching in my presence). Their overall response? To paraphrase... "this guy is a liar like Trump". Not good.

Unlike the previous 3 BC elections (2005/2009/2013), the BC NDP appears lackadaisical & drifting in this electoral cycle. Not a good omen methinks.




Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on February 06, 2017, 01:09:35 AM
The venerable BC Conservative Party. What gives?

Prior to the 2013 election, they certainly had a political opening, with the BC Liberals in disarray, and ran their highest number of candidates since 1960 ... 56/85 ridings. Then BC Con leader John Cummins was even in the 2013 televised leadership debate.

BTW, prior to the 2013 BC election, Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey stated that "most people are tuning out the BC Liberals". A then obvious "change election" was in the making.

In the 2013 BC election, the BC Cons obtained 4.8% popular vote share - their highest since the 1979 BC election at 5.1%. Moreover, during the 2013 BC election, the BC Con vote split undoubtedly cost the BC Liberals 2 seats - Skeena (NW BC) and Burnaby-Lougheed (Metro Vancouver). It's much easier to parse the BC Con vote than the BC Green vote BTW.

So what has happened to the BC Conservative Party? They receive absolutely no media attention. The only news article that I can find (previously posted) was an obscure article in a Kelowna newspaper regarding an investigation into its party president.

To re-iterate, the BC Conservatives are leaderless, insolvent, and involved in in-fighting. If they run candidates in 2017, they will likely achieve only ~1% popular vote share akin to the 7 BC elections between 1983 - 2009.

Undoubtedly they will not be appearing at the 2017 televised leadership debate. Even Global BC TV political analyst has stated that they are now "fringe".

Moreover, a recent petition on Change.org by BC Conservative Party members requests the following, with detailed reasons: "Demand for the resignation of the President of the BC Conservative Party." It was also signed by former BC Con leadership contender Konrad Pimiskern:

https://www.change.org/p/members-of-the-bc-conservative-party-demand-the-resignation-of-the-current-president-of-the-board

In the aftermath of the 2013 BC election and until recently at least 3 former 2013 BC Con candidates have joined and are now supporting the BC Liberals:

1. Peace River South (NW BC) Kurt Peats (former RCMP officer);
2. Kamloops-South Thompson (central BC) Peter Sharp (former RCMP officer);
3. Burnaby North (Metro Vancouver) Wayne Marklund (businessman);

Moving "toward" the other end of the political spectrum, more specifically federal Liberal, summer Olympic silver medalist Dave Calder served on the BC NDP riding executive of Saanich South (a Greater Victoria riding on Vancouver Isle). Calder was also a major supporter of incumbent BC NDP MLA during the previous 2013 BC election.

Interestingly enough, Dave Calder let his BC NDP membership lapse in 2014 and several months ago joined the BC Liberals. More surprisingly, Calder is now the BC Liberal candidate in Saanich South. The BC Greens have also nominated a well-known local teacher in the riding. As an interesting aside, all 3 candidates know each other personally.

Prior to 2013, during the 2005 and 2009 elections, the BC NDP narrowly won both races in Saanich South over the BC Libs by less than a 2% margin. During 2013, both the BC Libs and BC Greens ran fence-posts with hair in Saanich South. 2013 results with 2009 changes in brackets:

BC NDP: 45.6% (-1.54%)
BC Lib: 35.3% (-9.9%)
BC Green: 15.3% (+8.59%)
BC Con: 3.3% (+3.3%)

That said, incumbent Saanich South BC NDP MLA Lana Popham is popular in the riding and I have previously placed this riding in the BC NDP win column for 2017. However, Greater Victoria is the most politically volatile area in BC and it is still too early to ascertain any potential significant political changes/trends at this date.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on February 18, 2017, 02:41:55 AM
Yesterday, BC's 3 foremost media political analysts:

1. Vancouver Sun's Vaughn Palmer
2. Global BC TV's Keith Baldrey
3. Province newspaper's Mike Smyth

.... were on stage, in front of a large crowd, at the Urban Development Institute (UDI) conference candidly discussing/answering questions about the forthcoming May, 2017 BC election.

Two major points stood out to me.

1. Global BC's Keith Baldrey stated that if next Tuesday's budget has a 1% PST sales tax cut - then it would be a political "game changer- "central issue of campaign".

As an aside, a 1% PST cut equates to a ~$900 million in annual revenue budget loss. To put the foregoing into further context, BC currently has a $2 billion+ annual operating budget surplus (5th consecutive in a row) with among the lowest provincial personal/corporate taxation rates in Canada. Furthermore, BC also is the only province in Canada with an "AAA" credit rating with Moody's, S & P, Fitch & DBRS. Problem is that those $2 billion/annual surpluses are not sustainable moving forward.

2. Global BC's Keith Baldrey also stated that one BC NDP MLA had told him that, if the foregoing is the case, the BC NDP would then "have to go back to square 1" in terms of their own platform. The BC NDP's platform includes numerous annual program spending commitments as well as a new annual spending commitment known as $10/day child daycare - an annual program that would cots the BC treasury between $1.5 - $2 billion/annum every year moving forward. Interesting to note that the BC NDP, prior to the 2013 BC election, stated that such a program "is too expensive" & "just not affordable".

Obviously, the BC NDP platform would then place BC into major annual operating deficit territory, which, historically, is anathema to the centrist BC electorate.

3. Province newspaper columnist Mike Smyth also stated that BC Green party leader Andrew Weaver is a very astute political leader and will do very well in the always important TV leadership debate. Moreover, he also stated that Weaver will have a "political field day" at the TV leader's debate with BC NDP leader Horgan on numerous issues, inclusive of political party financing.

As a separate aside, both pre-writ as well as during the writ period, it became increasingly apparent to me that the 2013 BC election had very similar dynamics/narratives as the 1983 BC election. And that it was!

As for the forthcoming May, 2017 BC election, in terms of the pre-writ period, it is also now becoming increasingly apparent to me that it also has very similar dynamics/narratives akin to the 1969 BC election. Guess that we will have to wait and see.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on February 21, 2017, 09:47:57 AM
New opinion poll by Mainstreet Research this morn. Caveat, it's an IVR/robo poll, which are notoriously off-target in BC as witnessed by the 2013 BC election. Top-line numbers (with change from Mainstreet's September, 2016 poll in brackets):

BC Lib: 37% (+4%)
BC NDP: 37% (-1%)
BC Green: 17% (+1%)
BC Con: 10% (-4%)

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/deadlock-uncertainty-bc-election-nears/

Also an unusually high 31% undecided rate.

PS. I have been in contact with Greg Lyle, prez of Innovative Research, and he confirmed that they will release another CATI poll in the coming weeks. FWIW, in BC, CATI polling traditionally is the only methodology that produces accurate results.




Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on February 21, 2017, 10:41:20 AM
Actually, IVR polls are quite accurate in BC...Forum's final poll on the eve of the 2013 BC election was almost dead-on...But almost all of the public domain polling in BC in the 2013 was online and not phone based at all.

Its clearly going to be a tossup in Bc in May, but what has to be encouraging for the BC NDP is that this poll has the Greens at 17% and in the past four elections in BC, the Greens ALWAYS poll in the mid-teens before the campaign begins and then drop to single digits by election day. According to this poll the Green vote is very very soft (only 32% are certain they will vote that way) and when Green voters are asked about who their second choice is - it is NDP over BC Liberals by a 5 to 1 margin.

I suppose BC Liberal supporters might take some solace from how this poll has the moribund BC Conservatives at 10%...but its interesting that when BC Conservatives are asked who their second choice is - they go NDP over Liberal 37 to 30. We saw a similar phenomenon in the last ontario election where Ontario PC voters hated Kathleen Wynne so much that they overwhelmingly said they would support the Ontario NDP before they would vote for the Ontario Liberals. I suspect that those BC Conservative supporters really dislike ardent federal Liberal Christy Clark and that most of them simply wont vote or will vote for various small "c" conservative independents


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on February 21, 2017, 01:37:36 PM
Actually, IVR polls are quite accurate in BC...Forum's final poll on the eve of the 2013 BC election was almost dead-on...But almost all of the public domain polling in BC in the 2013 was online and not phone based at all.

Its clearly going to be a tossup in Bc in May, but what has to be encouraging for the BC NDP is that this poll has the Greens at 17% and in the past four elections in BC, the Greens ALWAYS poll in the mid-teens before the campaign begins and then drop to single digits by election day. According to this poll the Green vote is very very soft (only 32% are certain they will vote that way) and when Green voters are asked about who their second choice is - it is NDP over BC Liberals by a 5 to 1 margin.

I suppose BC Liberal supporters might take some solace from how this poll has the moribund BC Conservatives at 10%...but its interesting that when BC Conservatives are asked who their second choice is - they go NDP over Liberal 37 to 30. We saw a similar phenomenon in the last ontario election where Ontario PC voters hated Kathleen Wynne so much that they overwhelmingly said they would support the Ontario NDP before they would vote for the Ontario Liberals. I suspect that those BC Conservative supporters really dislike ardent federal Liberal Christy Clark and that most of them simply wont vote or will vote for various small "c" conservative independents

The B.C Conservative Party also seemed to take more votes from the NDP in 2013.  This isn't necessary a surprise as the B.C Conservatives and the B.C NDP are both considered populist parties in many parts of British Columbia (especially in Northern Vancouver Island and the Interior.)

I thought Stephen Harper went back and forth on whether he was a conventional economic conservative or whether he was an economic populist, but the B.C Conservative Party leader in that election, John Cummins, was known in B.C as an economic populist (though in his very election campaign effort, for some reason he chose to run as more of a conventional economic conservative.)

Edited to add:
By an economics populist I am referring to the type of Conservatives here in Richmond at the municipal level. The B.C Conservative candidate in one of the Richmond ridings in 2013 was Carol Day a popular city councillor.  Economic conservatives on our city council like former B.C Liberal MLA Ken Johnson tend to be in favor of every property development proposal, whereas economic populists like Carol Day tend to be more suspicious of them.  Carol Day, like old line conservatives are also in favor of efficient delivery of quality public services, as opposed to believing that essentially all government spending is 'wasteful.'

So, to the degree that those represent the views of 2013 B.C Conservative voters, it's not necessarily a surprise that those voters would look more favorably to the NDP than to the B.C Liberals.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on February 21, 2017, 11:07:06 PM
Gotta disagree. Basically speaking, the 2013 BC election was the first whereby both opt-in online panel and IVR/robo polls were utilized. Long-time BC pollster Mustel (CATI pollser) bowed out in January, 2013 - well over four months before the May, 2013 BC election. It's too bad as they nailed every BC election for the previous ~25 year period.

As for IVR polls in the 2013 BC election ... they also had major misses... yes Forum Research had a 2% BC NDP lead in their final poll leading into the weekend before e-day. Still... in BC terms, that's a 6% reversal compared to actual results. As a matter of fact, many, over the years, refer to Forum Research as the "McDonald's" of the CA polling industry.

Even worse, Ekos (also IVR/robo pollster) was last in the field two days before the 2013 BC election. Ekos' final result had a 6% BC NDP winning spread - a 10% reversal compared to the actual election result. Just terrible polling junk akin to the opt-in online panel pollsters.

Now back to Mainstreet Research, which released  it's IVR/robo BC poll today. It's their second ever poll in BC - their initial opinion poll was back on September 8, 2016 with the following result:

BC NDP: 38%
BC Liberal: 33%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 14%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-ndp-lead-liberals-38-to-33/

Interestingly enough, Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer, Global BC TV political reporter Keith Baldrey, and Province newspaper political columnist Mike Smyth all reported that BC Liberal insiders/strategists informed them that they were happy with that Mainstreet Research public opinion poll showing a 5% BC NDP lead. For example:

Quote
The Province
Mike Smyth: B.C. Liberal Insiders Happy They're Trailing In New Poll

September 21, 2016

A new opinion poll showing the NDP leading Premier Christy Clark's governing Liberals by five percentage points had at least one political war-room operative I know feeling quite upbeat.

"This is great", the insider told me. "Couldn't have come at a better time!".

Here's the twist: That's a BC Liberal talking, not an NDPer.

A series of earlier polls showing Clark in the lead had some BC Liberal insiders worried about over-confidence and complacency.

One would think that's kinda odd. In that vein, Global BC TV political analyst Keith Baldrey also writes a weekly political column that some local Metro Vancouver newspapers publish. Just prior to the September, 2016 Mainstreet Research IVR poll showing a BC NDP 5% lead, Keith Baldrey wrote that the BC Liberals conduct internal CATI riding tracking polls on incumbent ridings as well as "winnable" ridings. Baldrey further reported that the BC Liberal's internal CATI riding polls have "most incumbents leading with healthy margins". Baldrey also stated that the BC Liberals don't conduct provincial tracking polls outside the writ period.

Again, this is the same BC Liberal internal pollster that, on the Friday (four days before May, 2013 e-day) had already called with certainty 48 ridings (actually won 49) for the BC Liberals and their final provincial tracking numbers were " bang-on" compared to the actual results. That's the power of expensive/accurate CATI polling. BTW, in an earlier post herein, I posted in detail those internal BC Liberal numbers from the 2013 BC election.

Again, Nanos federally is also a CATI pollster and their final numbers have also been virtually bang-on over the past 5 CA federal elections cycles. Hell, in the 2011 and 2015 CA fed elections, Nanos even almost nailed the exact BC federal voting intentions with their small, ~130 BC sub-sample. High quality stuff.

As for the BC Conservative vote, they are currently leaderless, have no candidates, are insolvent, and involved with in-fighting. Irrespective of the foregoing, the BC Liberal internal pollster had some interesting findings during the 2013 BC election campaign. At the beginning of the writ period, the BC Cons had 15% in their internals. His analysis:

1. 1/3 (5%) had brand confusion with federal politics ie. fed Con voters/BC Lib voters;
2. 1/3 (5%) were unhappy with the BC Libs and parked their votes with the BC Cons until near the end of the campaign when they held their nose and voted BC Liberal fearing a BC NDP win;
3. 1/3 (5%) were actual BC Con voters;

Now back again to the September 8, 2016 Mainstreet Research opinion poll (IVR/robo poll). Interestingly enough, Innovative Research a CATI pollster (reliable), was in the field just ~3 weeks before Mainstreet Research. During that interval, nothing material occurred on the BC provincial political scene. Yet... Mainstreet Research IVR polling results and Innovative Research's CATI polling results were COMPLETELY different. IR's CATI numbers:

BC Liberal: 38%
BC NDP: 29%
BC Green: 16%
BC Con: 15%
Other: 2%

http://innovativeresearch.ca/wp-content/uploads/160819_BCTM1608_Release_Deck_0.pdf

Have said it once and will say it again. Both opt-in online polling as well as IVR/robo polling is just cheap polling junk in BC. Period. Caveat emptor. CATI has always been and continues to be the gold standard of BC political polling as historical BC polling data corroborates.

My 2 cents.

PS.  These polls are just political snapshots in time. During the final 2 weeks of the writ period (just after televised leadership debate) is where major movement will occur in the campaign.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Poirot on February 25, 2017, 04:42:31 PM
Too close to call has a simulator for the result of the BC election.

http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/bc-simulator-2017.html (http://www.tooclosetocall.ca/p/bc-simulator-2017.html)

With the mainstreet poll numbers (37% - 37% - 17%), it gives the BCLib 43 seats, BCNDP 41, Green 3.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 01, 2017, 10:52:52 PM
Since the Mainstreet Research (IVR or robo) opinion poll from one week ago (in the field February 18 - 19) showing a tie between the BC Libs and BC NDP... Mainstreet Research has come out tonight with another IVR poll (in the field exactly one week later on February 25 - 26) with these decided results:

BC NDP: 39.5%
BC Lib: 33%
BC Green: 14.5%
BC Con: 13.2%

http://vancouversun.com/news/local-news/ndp-holds-slight-b-c-election-poll-lead-but-msp-child-care-issues-could-swing-voters

IOW, within the course of a week a political tie has gone to a 6.5% BC NDP lead. IMHO, opinion polls don't bounce around like that in the course of one week - esp. when nothing materially occurred on the BC political scene - except for an apparently highly lauded new BC budget, which intuitively should have benefited the BC Libs.

I have a hunch that we may well see another repeat of the BC 2013 election in terms of IVR/opt-in online panel polls this 2017 election cycle.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on March 01, 2017, 11:34:48 PM
The previous Mainstreet poll back in the fall had the NDP leading by 5 points so maybe the poll last week showing a tie was an anomaly and now we have a reversion to the mean. You have to feel sorry for poor Crooked Christy Clarke. She put her heart and soul into her budget and it clearly flopped in the eyes of the public. and to add insult to injury the Green party momentum and seems destined to fall back to their traditional 8%...and as the Green vote dropped for every one vote that goes to "Crooked Christy" the NDP picks up 5. According to the seat projection simulator on tooclosetocall, if this poll was the actual popular vote result the NDP would win 49 seats, the Liberals 36 and the Greens would get 2. 

If the NDP wins in BC, I look forward to them banning all corporate and union donations to political parties - which of course would bankrupt the BC Liberals who can only survive off massive corporate donations...plus some judicial inquiries into all the corruption under Crooked Christy. She is the most dishonest corrupt politician in Canada and ought to be thrown in jail.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on March 01, 2017, 11:38:03 PM

If the NDP wins in BC, I look forward to them banning all corporate and union donations to political parties - which of course would bankrupt the BC Liberals who can only survive off massive corporate donations...plus some judicial inquiries into all the corruption under Crooked Christy. She is the most dishonest corrupt politician in Canada and ought to be thrown in jail.

That last part is a bit over the top. She's corrupt, but I don't think anything that she's done is actually illegal.  (Which is, of course, interesting in and of itself.)  Also, I think Kathleen Wynne's government, if not Wynne herself, is more corrupt.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 01, 2017, 11:53:07 PM
Haha. DL. You are from Toronto. Correct? Like a ~5-hour flight away from Vancouver. Sometimes you make logical common-sense analytical comments. But your foregoing comment is, what even "red" federal Liberals in BC would describe as "bat sh**t crazy". :)

In other BC political news today, for the first time in BC history, a unionized affiliate of the BC Federation of Labour - Ironworkers Local 97 - endorsed the BC Liberals. Quite an eye-opener:

Quote
Ironworkers endorse B.C. Liberals, attack NDP for lack of jobs plan

Vancouver Sun

Rob Shaw

VICTORIA — B.C.’s Ironworkers threw their support behind Premier Christy Clark on Wednesday, attacking their old allies in the NDP for failing to support their jobs and criticizing the B.C. Federation of Labour for its new anti-Liberal ad campaign.

The 1,800-strong Ironworkers union endorsed Clark’s B.C. Liberals for the coming election, saying they feel abandoned by New Democrats who oppose the Site C dam, George Massey bridge and the liquified natural gas industry, which will generate thousands of jobs.

“How do I go to my members and say I need you to support the NDP when they are against everything the Ironworkers stand for?” said Doug Parton, business manager of Ironworkers Local 97, who took part in a press conference with the premier at a construction site in downtown Victoria.

“We strongly believe that the Liberals have the best jobs plan and we’re going to support them. That’s what we’re going to stand up for,” said Parton. “I’ve been elected to do a duty as much as she has, to support these guys. When they are not working, they are looking to me. And when I’m not working, I’m looking to her. So we all have people to answer to.”

The move is a blow to the provincial NDP in advance of the May 9 election. Although the Ironworkers have not formally endorsed a party in recent elections, they are traditionally sympathetic to the New Democrats, and former NDP premier Glen Clark was a key Ironworkers organizer in his day.

The criticism from the union strikes at the heart of a problem the NDP faced in the last election, highlighting the party’s internal divide between environmentalists who oppose natural resource projects and the trade unions who support the resource industry’s working-class jobs.

“For years, they’ve been thought of as the labour party, but what’s happened in the past has made my members very concerned,” Parton said of the NDP. “When they come out against the George Massey bridge, that’s a direct attack against the Ironworkers, and I can’t take it any other way. That’s our bridge.”

Parton said the endorsement was the union’s idea and not the Liberals’. “We’ve stepped into that arena because we felt we had to do that and be a voice of reason.”

http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/ironworkers-endorse-b-c-liberals-attack-ndp-for-lack-of-jobs-plan

Vancouver Sun political columnist Vaughn Palmer's take:

Quote
Vaughn Palmer: Ironworkers embrace Clark's vision for their future

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-ironworkers-embrace-clarks-vision-for-their-future

Province newspaper political columnist Mike Smyth's take:

Quote
Mike Smyth: New Democrats fume as Ironworkers Union endorses Clark

http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/new-democrats-fume-as-ironworkers-union-endorses-clark





Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on March 02, 2017, 12:13:47 AM
The Ironworkers union represents a whopping 1,500 people. You can always find the odd fringe "company union" that is a shill for management. Some renegade miners union locals endorsed Trump too - even though he is virulently anti-labour.

In contrast CUPE BC has 80,000 members, BCGEU has 75,000 members, HEU 45,000 members, HSA BC 50,000 members, not to mention USW and Unifor  and BCTF each of which also have tens of thousands of members. I think if you added up the number of union members in BC that are from unions that support the NDP they would outnumber the puny Ironworkers by about 200 to 1.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on March 02, 2017, 12:25:17 AM
Btw/ Lotuslander's usual big-penis bile and DL's "Crooked Christy" business, this thread's giving me a pretty big whiff of cum grano salis.  Just saying.

It's like they're a pair of suitors battling for the affection of a fair damsel like Lil' Ole Me, not knowing that I feel they're both blowhard creeps who aren't worth my time.

(But hey; maybe that's a reflection of how sharply polarized and nuance-free BC electoral politics *always* has been.)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on March 02, 2017, 12:40:03 AM
Btw/ Lotuslander's usual big-penis bile and DL's "Crooked Christy" business, this thread's giving me a pretty big whiff of cum grano salis.  Just saying.

It's like they're a pair of suitors battling for the affection of a fair damsel like Lil' Ole Me, not knowing that I feel they're both blowhard creeps who aren't worth my time.

(But hey; maybe that's a reflection of how sharply polarized and nuance-free BC electoral politics *always* has been.)

And your comment sounds to me like the 'both sides are equally bad' stuff.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 02, 2017, 12:42:34 AM
Adma. You're just another hardcore Toronto NDPer with another one of your typical snide "drive-by" comments. Hundreds of other threads for ya to go to. Go troll/pollute those. Leave this one alone. ;)

Haha. DL. You have proven my point again. The BC Fed is now controlled by public sector unions. And the public sector union leadership supports the BC NDP.

That's where the major schism exists within the BC Fed - public sector unions v. private sector unions. Same within the BC NDP. A new phenomena arising out of the 2013 BC election and post period. Hell, at the past BC Fed convention, when asked by the BC media if the BC Fed opposes BC Hydro's Site C dam, BC Fed prez Irene Latzinger (former public sector BCTF prez) stated that the BC Fed has no opinion as the BC Fed is "split".

I will re-iterate again that just one year ago, the entire BC Building Trades unions held convention in Victoria and invited BC Lib cabinet minister Shirley Bond as a guest speaker. Another historical first. Moreover, Bond received a standing ovation. Who woulda thunk? Gets even more bizarre. Bond was invited to be a guest speaker at the national convention.

Not long after that, a high-level internal USW memo was leaked to the BC media  regarding the same matters publicly espoused today by the Ironworkers local (part of the BC Building Trades unions). I have previously posted same herein.  Quite apparent that the USW membership in mining in BC votes heavily BC Lib. Just look at the Elk Valley in SE BC - the locale of the largest metallurgical coal mines in Canada.

In any event, have said it once and will say it again. The BC NDP has been hijacked by a hard-core enviro crowd on the BC SW coast - against everything - numerous mines, KM twinning, natural gas development, nat gas pipelines, LNG, resource development, major highway development, BC Hydro's Site C dam, etc., etc. - these are the projects where the unionized BC Building Trades have their work - their livelihoods. These union guys are literally "spooked".

Since you are from Toronto... let's imagine the ONDP opposes all 400-series expansion in the GTA... and opposes the proposed tolls on the DVP/Gardiner for transit expansion. And the ONDP opposes all resource development in northern Ontario, for example.  Would literally kill the ONDP - massive seat losses would result.

Grab your bag of popcorn and watch the BC election results roll in on May, 2017 e-day. Obviously then, and only then... will ya get my "drift". ;)

PS. Since you are obviously a fan of IVR polls, which were also proven just cheap junk in the 2013 BC election, even then, you don't seriously believe that the BC Libs are polling higher on Van Isle than in Metro Vancouver based upon Mainstreet Research's numbers today? Or do you? Or are you even aware of the historical voting patterns/demographics of both BC regions?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on March 02, 2017, 09:13:53 AM
Adma. You're just another hardcore Toronto NDPer with another one of your typical snide "drive-by" comments. Hundreds of other threads for ya to go to. Go troll/pollute those. Leave this one alone. ;)

In case you didn't notice, my knock was collectively aimed *both* at yourself *and* at DL.  It's about tone, not partisanship.

The moment we can arrive at a certain BC election-discussion decorum that isn't hijacked by retrograde hack-political-operative cant, I'm happy


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on March 02, 2017, 09:49:05 AM
Here are the details from that new Mainstreet poll

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-lead-post-budget-undecided-still-high/

One thing i find particularly interesting are the numbers on leader approval. Needless to say John Horgan, not having been through an election campaign yet, is still relatively unknown:

Horgan -

Favourable 26%
Unfavourable 24%
Not sure 37%
Don't know him well enough 13%

But check out Christy Clark...what absolutely damning numbers! Good thing Kathleen Wynne is around to save her from being the most hated premier in Canada!

Clark -

Favourable 21%
Unfavourable 57%
Not sure 20%
Don't know him well enough 2%


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on March 02, 2017, 09:56:47 AM
Adma. You're just another hardcore Toronto NDPer with another one of your typical snide "drive-by" comments. Hundreds of other threads for ya to go to. Go troll/pollute those. Leave this one alone. ;)

In case you didn't notice, my knock was collectively aimed *both* at yourself *and* at DL.  It's about tone, not partisanship.

The moment we can arrive at a certain BC election-discussion decorum that isn't hijacked by retrograde hack-political-operative cant, I'm happy

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on March 02, 2017, 06:56:47 PM

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll.

Well, I don't deny that he has a lot of the ground-level knowledge--but it's *how* one uses it and expresses it that matters.  That is, if you're to fall back on trollspeak and insufferable remind-us-every-time-how-great-he-is Keith Baldrey fawning, you're undermining your own authority.  And my distancing myself from the Lotuslander/DL battle isn't so much "both sides are equally bad" as "both reps of either side are equally bad".  In fact, I'd argue that the better approach to these kinds of political-overviews is less condemnatory than that of an affectionately, strategically wry jaded bystander with a clear window into the lay of the land--not unlike this forum's mod, Hash.  
Unfortunately, Lotuslander's no Hash.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 02, 2017, 09:30:09 PM

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll. Period.

The definition of "troll" is someone who posts irrelevant & inflammatory bafflegab in order to disrupt a thread. By that definition, you are a troll.

Sigh. Every once in a while it appears a "full moon" exists in this thread. At the strike of midnight... the trolls morph into werewolves,  get on their all-fours, and howl at the moon. Strange breed.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 02, 2017, 10:05:51 PM
Here are the details from that new Mainstreet poll

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-lead-post-budget-undecided-still-high/

One thing i find particularly interesting are the numbers on leader approval.

But check out Christy Clark...what absolutely damning numbers! Good thing Kathleen Wynne is around to save her from being the most hated premier in Canada!

Clark -

Favourable 21%
Unfavourable 57%
Not sure 20%
Don't know him well enough 2%


And right there exists a major "red flag" in terms of Mainstreet Research (IVR/robo polls) in BC esp. after the 2013 BC election polling fiasco. Both IVR/robo and opt-in online panel polls were proven to be terribly inaccurate cheap junk unlike expensive/accurate CATI - the polling gold standard. Seems like some folk are unable to proverbially separate the wheat from the chaff. More specifically, the same folk unable to tell the difference between a McDonald's hamburger patty and a NY steak.

So let's dig further into these approval numbers by Mainstreet Research. Let's backtrack to the 2013 BC election when the BC NDP approached/hit a winning spread of 20%. Even back then CC's approval (favourability) numbers with Angus Reid (opt-in online panel pollster) never hit as low as 21%.

In fact, in their final poll on the Monday prior to Tuesday, e-day, May, 2013, Angus Reid had a 9% BC NDP winning margin whereas the actual results was a 13% reversal. Even then, AR had CC with 34% approval/58% disapproval figures. Just last December 16, AR released CA premier's approval ratings and, surprise surprise, CC had the ~same 35% approval/59% disapproval ratings.

What's more interesting is the BC Lib 's internal polling during the 4-week 2013 writ period - very expensive/accurate CATI polling and the only entity that nailed the final 2013 BC election result. In terms of their BC Lib's internals approval ratings, CC had equal approval/disapproval numbers on the 2nd day of the 2013 campaign. Thereafter, CC's approval figures surpassed her disapproval numbers and trended upward over the next 4 weeks. OTOH, BC Lib 2013 internals had BC NDP leader Adrian Dix with disapproval numbers higher than his approval ratings with a negative trajectory throughout the 2013 campaign.

While the BC Lib's CATI internals nailed the 2013 BC election, the cheap opt-in online panel/IVR polls were wayyyyy off. Probably one of, if not thee, biggest public polling failures in Canadian history. Becoming clear that Mainstreet Research will be joining that same crowd.

Again, CATI pollster Innovative Research was in the field within a few weeks of IVR pollster Mainstreet Research last December. COMPLETELY different polling results. BTW, a few weeks back, Greg Lyle, prez of Innovative Research, directly informed me that they will be in the field relatively soon. Again, no doubt that they they again will have completely different results from Mainstreet Research.

To sum it up - some folk here apparently prefer McDonald's hamburger patties over NY steak in terms of quality "opinion" polling. No skin off my back. It is what it is.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on March 03, 2017, 04:36:39 AM

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll. Period.

The definition of "troll" is someone who posts irrelevant & inflammatory bafflegab in order to disrupt a thread. By that definition, you are a troll.

Sigh. Every once in a while it appears a "full moon" exists in this thread. At the strike of midnight... the trolls morph into werewolves,  get on their all-fours, and howl at the moon. Strange breed.

If you're not a troll then pay me the $1,000 you owe me.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on March 03, 2017, 05:15:14 AM

Lotuslander is a troll plain and simple.  There is no question he is well informed, but all that means is he is a well informed troll.

Well, I don't deny that he has a lot of the ground-level knowledge--but it's *how* one uses it and expresses it that matters.  That is, if you're to fall back on trollspeak and insufferable remind-us-every-time-how-great-he-is Keith Baldrey fawning, you're undermining your own authority.  And my distancing myself from the Lotuslander/DL battle isn't so much "both sides are equally bad" as "both reps of either side are equally bad".  In fact, I'd argue that the better approach to these kinds of political-overviews is less condemnatory than that of an affectionately, strategically wry jaded bystander with a clear window into the lay of the land--not unlike this forum's mod, Hash.  
Unfortunately, Lotuslander's no Hash.

Forgive me if it wasn't you, but I believe it was you who said I was overly swept up into the hyper partisanship of British Columbia when i wrote here something like "virtually nobody in British Columbia likes Christy Clark and outside of provincial Liberal hyper partisans, virtually everybody regards her as a narcissist who is interested in governing only as long as she gets her picture taken."

It's just one poll, but I think it backs up what I wrote:
Christy Clark
Favorable 21%
Unfavorable 57%


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on March 03, 2017, 08:27:18 AM
Though favourability/unfavourability polls do not necessarily equate with electoral choice in the end.  (And in a way, Rachel Notley in Alberta faces an inverse situation--high favourables vs low reelectability)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 03, 2017, 09:33:49 AM
For all you IVR/robo poll fans... you will love today's new BC opinion poll results today by Forum Research:

BC NDP: 39.7%
BC Lib: 28.5%
BC Con: 15%
BC Green: 13.6%

(extrapolated)



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on March 03, 2017, 10:17:34 AM
Though favourability/unfavourability polls do not necessarily equate with electoral choice in the end.  (And in a way, Rachel Notley in Alberta faces an inverse situation--high favourables vs low reelectability)

But, again, I recall that's what I wrote at the time.  I wrote something like "Yet, by no means is the NDP certain to win the next election. If the B.C NDP can't win under this circumstance, they need to seriously rethink their existence as a political party."  I believe I said much the same thing as Dominic Cardy said in New Brunswick, that they need to remove that anybody who wants to join the NDP at the provincial level must also join at the Federal level, and, where applicable, even at the municipal level.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on March 03, 2017, 10:46:28 AM
Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on March 03, 2017, 02:17:48 PM
For all you IVR/robo poll fans... you will love today's new BC opinion poll results today by Forum Research:

BC NDP: 39.7%
BC Lib: 28.5%
BC Con: 15%
BC Green: 13.6%

(extrapolated)


According to too close to call, this translates to:

NDP: 58
LIB: 27
GRN: 2
CON: 0


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on March 03, 2017, 05:10:13 PM
Though favourability/unfavourability polls do not necessarily equate with electoral choice in the end.  (And in a way, Rachel Notley in Alberta faces an inverse situation--high favourables vs low reelectability)

Notley's had approval ratings in the 30-35% range for about a year now.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on March 03, 2017, 07:32:37 PM
Though favourability/unfavourability polls do not necessarily equate with electoral choice in the end.  (And in a way, Rachel Notley in Alberta faces an inverse situation--high favourables vs low reelectability)

Notley's had approval ratings in the 30-35% range for about a year now.

That's still not bad, considering--esp. compared to Christy's 21-to-57.

The thing about the BCLibs is: however unpopular the leadership, barring some unforeseen third-party upheaval (and no, the Greens aren't *quite* at that level yet, not even under Weaver) the *only* viable governing alternative is the "Socialist Hordes".  By comparison, Team Christy is commonly viewed as the safe, sane, solid middle-of-the-road choice, and a lot of voters are willing to forgive for that reason.  OTOH where they *can* be tripped up is for being "politics as usual", i.e. Christy as a Hillary figure vs either Donald or Bernie.  And that's why BC provincial elections have seldom been classic pre-Notley Alberta PC-scale slam dunks.

By comparison, the even more unpopular Wynne in Ontario has the right-of-centre Ontario PCs as well as the NDP to ward off.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on March 03, 2017, 07:33:30 PM
Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 03, 2017, 08:52:46 PM
Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.

Correction. The NDP has a certain sect within that treats the NDP as a "church". The so-called Jehovah's Witness/Scientology sect within the NDP that views any criticism as heresy & blasphemy.

Certainly Adma & DL - all from Toronto, Ontario fit that mold as well as Adam T. In centrist political circles these types are referred to as the "loony left". It is what it is.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on March 03, 2017, 09:30:55 PM
Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.

Correction. The NDP has a certain sect within that treats the NDP as a "church". The so-called Jehovah's Witness/Scientology sect within the NDP that views any criticism as heresy & blasphemy.

Certainly Adma & DL - all from Toronto, Ontario fit that mold as well as Adam T. In centrist political circles these types are referred to as the "loony left". It is what it is.

I don't think expecting you to pay the $1,000 for the bet you lost to me is loony at all.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on March 03, 2017, 11:12:50 PM
Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.

Correction. The NDP has a certain sect within that treats the NDP as a "church". The so-called Jehovah's Witness/Scientology sect within the NDP that views any criticism as heresy & blasphemy.

Certainly Adma & DL - all from Toronto, Ontario fit that mold as well as Adam T. In centrist political circles these types are referred to as the "loony left". It is what it is.

Actually, Lotuslander, I was tipped on your identity and it seems like, for all your self-proclaimed "expertise", you leave a pretty shallow Google footprint other than a Twitter account and, through said Twitter account, this.

https://bcelection2017-87ridings.blog/

And judging from the "About" page, there's something about your tone that still seems like it hasn't matured much beyond your Grade 5/7 epiphanies.  I mean, the Superbowl and Arnie as cultural references?

Indeed, you may have become infatuated with infrastructure and "economic growth stuff"; but there doesn't seem much...culture.  Or history.  Or dimension beyond suspended-animation juvenilia.  And maybe this tweet says it best about how culturally stunted and pathetic you are.

https://twitter.com/Lotuslander1000/status/628048052599701504

As I've suggested before: to me, elections and election stats can be a sensual, multidimensional thing--even in binary BC.  In fact, I've just been on a bender with the 2015 federal stats for BC, correlating with polling maps and the like.  And really...once you're deep into that, raw partisanship, "loony left" or not, doesn't matter.  It all gains added dimension; you sense nuances even within the results for "loser" parties.  And it helps balance a person.

It has dimension, in the same way that a long, satisfying road trip has dimension, that--as I've said before--choosing the Trans-Canada over the Coquihalla has dimension.  

Though it now seems from your infrastructural obsession that indeed, you probably *would* prefer the Coquihalla because it represents "progress".

But anyway...to me, elections aren't just like the Superbowl.  They *supercede and transcend* the Superbowl.

In the end, Lotuslander, your so-called grand gestures and your self-proclaimed "centrist circle" knocks on the "loony left" remind me of Trump.  You display your so-called unequaled expertise and authority the way that Trump displays his so-called impeccable taste in decoration and women.
But what we, the "loony left" "losers", see behind Trump's boasts is parvenu vulgarity to the nth degree and a plastic doll from Slovenia.  But oh,  I guess we're "just jellus".

You may see yourself as "centrist"; but what I see is a philistine.  Political-analysis "authority" in a tasteless-blowhard package.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on March 04, 2017, 01:53:30 AM
Why does this forum get so nasty and snide when talking about BC, of all places? This must be the only place where discussions about Israeli elections end up less controversial than discussing Vancouver politics.

Lotuslander.



Correction. The NDP has a certain sect within that treats the NDP as a "church". The so-called Jehovah's Witness/Scientology sect within the NDP that views any criticism as heresy & blasphemy.

Certainly Adma & DL - all from Toronto, Ontario fit that mold as well as Adam T. In centrist political circles these types are referred to as the "loony left". It is what it is.

Actually, Lotuslander, I was tipped on your identity and it seems like, for all your self-proclaimed "expertise", you leave a pretty shallow Google footprint other than a Twitter account and, through said Twitter account, this.

https://bcelection2017-87ridings.blog/

And judging from the "About" page, there's something about your tone that still seems like it hasn't matured much beyond your Grade 5/7 epiphanies.  I mean, the Superbowl and Arnie as cultural references?

Indeed, you may have become infatuated with infrastructure and "economic growth stuff"; but there doesn't seem much...culture.  Or history.  Or dimension beyond suspended-animation juvenilia.  And maybe this tweet says it best about how culturally stunted and pathetic you are.

https://twitter.com/Lotuslander1000/status/628048052599701504

As I've suggested before: to me, elections and election stats can be a sensual, multidimensional thing--even in binary BC.  In fact, I've just been on a bender with the 2015 federal stats for BC, correlating with polling maps and the like.  And really...once you're deep into that, raw partisanship, "loony left" or not, doesn't matter.  It all gains added dimension; you sense nuances even within the results for "loser" parties.  And it helps balance a person.

It has dimension, in the same way that a long, satisfying road trip has dimension, that--as I've said before--choosing the Trans-Canada over the Coquihalla has dimension.  

Though it now seems from your infrastructural obsession that indeed, you probably *would* prefer the Coquihalla because it represents "progress".

But anyway...to me, elections aren't just like the Superbowl.  They *supercede and transcend* the Superbowl.

In the end, Lotuslander, your so-called grand gestures and your self-proclaimed "centrist circle" knocks on the "loony left" remind me of Trump.  You display your so-called unequaled expertise and authority the way that Trump displays his so-called impeccable taste in decoration and women.
But what we, the "loony left" "losers", see behind Trump's boasts is parvenu vulgarity to the nth degree and a plastic doll from Slovenia.  But oh,  I guess we're "just jellus".

You may see yourself as "centrist"; but what I see is a philistine.  Political-analysis "authority" in a tasteless-blowhard package.

Are you sure that's him?  I had a discussion with the guy behind that website a few days ago on Twitter and I didn't get any bad feelings with that discussion.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 04, 2017, 02:10:55 AM

Actually, Lotuslander, I was tipped on your identity and it seems like, for all your self-proclaimed "expertise", you leave a pretty shallow Google footprint other than a Twitter account and, through said Twitter account, this.

https://bcelection2017-87ridings.blog/

And judging from the "About" page, there's something about your tone that still seems like it hasn't matured much beyond your Grade 5/7 epiphanies.  I mean, the Superbowl and Arnie as cultural references?

Haha. Adma - you've now proven yourself to be a complete and utter idiot. No doubt. And a psychopath to boot. An NDP buffoon on some conspiracy binge. Typical. In that regard, my favourite German (yes) saying: "Du hast ja aber eine Schraube locker". ;)

Alright. Let's have some more fun since you "were tipped" by Adam T.

The poster "adma" has been posting for well over a decade on numerous political sites all over Canada - from Ontario's GTA. Have read "adma's" postings for years.... and yep... loony-left stuff. Quite the NDP "church" groupie. Despises the centrist federal Liberals. Forget about the right-wing fed Cons. An "NDP ueber alles" type.

Like former BC NDP strategist/campaign manager Brad Zubyk previously stated.... "the BC NDP believes it's akin to a church". "Half the folk are bat sh**t crazy".

Now adma. Point to one intelligent/analytical post that ya have composed in this thread. Ya can't! It's because it's all "NDP church" rhetoric all the time attempting to undermine my posts. Weird. Sheer bafflegab. From that perspective, your loony-left "I know all about BC politics" types [from Ontario]... are the same that are literally clueless about BC politics. Am familiar with that type.

So, will you kindly agree to put me on your "ignore list" as well? Hell... I would have blocked you loony-left NDP "church" types, if that option was available herein, long ago.

PS. Before ya do that... my next post is about the other NDP church groupie. Sorry DL... adma made me do it - well worth a read. ;)




Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 04, 2017, 02:35:29 AM
Here are the details from that new Mainstreet poll

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/ndp-lead-post-budget-undecided-still-high/

One thing i find particularly interesting are the numbers on leader approval. Needless to say John Horgan, not having been through an election campaign yet, is still relatively unknown:

Horgan -

Favourable 26%
Unfavourable 24%
Not sure 37%
Don't know him well enough 13%

But check out Christy Clark...what absolutely damning numbers! Good thing Kathleen Wynne is around to save her from being the most hated premier in Canada!

Clark -

Favourable 21%
Unfavourable 57%
Not sure 20%
Don't know him well enough 2%


Everyone in BC basically hates her.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 04, 2017, 03:22:34 AM

But the 2015 federal Environics BC riding polls were akin to "dog meat" at a cheap Vietnamese restaurant v. McDonalds in comparison. Really pathetic junk. I actually know how Environics played that "game" - numerous IVR riding polls conducted until one favours the NDP (the 1/20 fluke outlier). Hell, the fed Greens played the same "game" with Oracle Research during  the federal riding of Victoria in 2015. Obvious that the fed NDP complained to Elections Canada as a result, which made news headlines after EC investigation.

Now the 2015 federal Environics riding polls ere the worst political junk that I have ever seen in my entire life in BC. /Environics had these federal BC ridings all listed as "NDP" wins - when either historically these ridings have never elected an NDP MP, were not demographically NDP, the underlying provincial ridings were not NDP - even another IVR/robo pollster concluded the riding was not NDP (in the field at the same time):

1. Cariboo-Prince George;
2 North Okanagan-Shuswap - hell ... even cheap polling junk IVR pollster Mainstreet Research (new BC poll), in  field at same time, had completely different result and more realistic;
3. Vancouver-Granville - ditto above;

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_in_the_Canadian_federal_election,_2015_by_constituency#British_Columbia

If someone made a complaint to Elections Canada regarding the foregoing, Environics would be required to produce ALL documents thereto - no client confidentiality.

post modified. doxing is inappropriate. consider this a formal warning. quit provoking people and derailing threads with this behaviour.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 04, 2017, 03:26:58 AM

Honestly... I have never met anyone who hates CC. And I am very serious. As a matter of fact, I know folk that dislike Gordon Campbell very much. These same folk "like" CC. Perhaps I live in a different world than you.

I certainly know that all hardcore NDP types "hate" both Campbell & CC. Just a fringe minority IMHO.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 04, 2017, 03:50:56 AM
Now back to regularly scheduled programming....

A fascinating BC NDP nomination race is underway in the riding of Fraser Nicola, which the BC NDP narrowly lost in 2013 after holding same since 1991 (aside from the 2001 debacle) with then incumbent NDP MLA Harry Lali.

Harry Lali is again running for the BC NDP nomination in the riding of Fraser-Nicola. During the 2013 BC election, Lali supported the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning against the wishes of then BC NDP leader Adrian Dix. Today, Lali is against the KM twinning in order to keep "solidarity" with the BC NDP.

Interestingly enough, Lali's opponent is Lower Nicola FN chief Aaron Sam (good guy) in Merritt. Sam previously told a local newspaper that he supports the KM twinning as "it's important for the economy".  In fact, his FN finalized a financial benefits agreement with KM just last week.

Odd. The only BC riding that BC NDP leader Horgan has  voiced a preference - Sam - and apparently attempted to talk Lali from running.

Vancouver Sun's political columnist Vaughn Palmer has another interesting take tonight:

http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-lali-wont-step-aside-for-leaders-choice-in-fraser-nicola


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on March 04, 2017, 06:45:16 AM
So, will you kindly agree to put me on your "ignore list" as well? Hell... I would have blocked you loony-left NDP "church" types, if that option was available herein, long ago.

I don't put anyone on ignore lists.  Because that's placing myself on your juvenile level.

Oh, and it wasn't Adam T. who tipped me.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hash on March 04, 2017, 10:20:52 AM
Since apparently certain people don't seem to understand this, doxing is very much inappropriate and will not be tolerated under any circumstances. In addition, once again certain people here are behaving worse than grade 1 students and this obviously degrades the quality of discussion on this thread, which isn't high to begin with.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on March 04, 2017, 10:45:54 AM
What is "doxing"?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Filuwaúrdjan on March 04, 2017, 10:47:33 AM

Internet bloodsport.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lord Halifax on March 04, 2017, 11:19:52 AM

"Using private information gleaned from the internet to attack someone with whom you disagree, often by publishing their person info, opening them to abuse and possibly, danger.
While many consider doxing to be unethical, there continues to be a segment of internet users who will do anything to attack someone they don't like, or disagree with on an issue."

http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=doxing (http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=doxing)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on March 04, 2017, 12:00:57 PM
Hey: properly done, it can serve a purpose ;-)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWyCCJ6B2WE


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on March 06, 2017, 07:06:52 AM
Aww...the poor BC Liberal party, just weeks away from the official start of the election campaign and now they are under investigation by Elections BC for their corrupt fundraising practices.

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/elections-bc-probes-liberal-party-fundraising/article34210991/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 07, 2017, 01:17:44 AM
Damn. the BC Libs are now toast in 2017. Who woulda thunk?

Wait a minute. Wait a minute. What's this from the Globe and Mail newspaper:

Quote
Lobbyists and consultants The Globe interviewed all agreed both main political parties in B.C. are equally guilty of squeezing money from players who want something from government. Several said the New Democrats hit them up hard right before the 2013 election, when the polls were predicting they would win.

“I’d get two or three calls a week from the NDP,” one lobbyist said. “There was an expectation – ‘Hey we are going to be in power – it would probably be advantageous to give us some money so we can be friends.’”


On the weekend, Andrew Weaver and the BC Green Party issued a press release requesting both Elections BC as well as the RCMP investigate both the BC Libs and BC NDP:

Quote
“The report raises very serious questions about influence peddling and corruption of our democratic process,” Weaver says. “The police and Elections BC have a duty to investigate the flow of money through lobbyists to both the Liberals and the NDP.”

Hell, the BC Greens certainly know how to smell political red meat when they see it.

Oh Oh again. Elections BC head Archer this afternoon stated that he will be investigating both the BC Libs and BC NDP regarding lobbyist donations. Same lobbyists donated multiple times to both BC Libs and BC NDP according to Elections BC database. The $5,000/plate breakfast for BC NDP leader Horgan in wayyyy off Toronto, organized by an ON nuclear energy lobbyist, is also now under EBC scrutiny. Say it can't be?

No wonder both BC Lib leader Clark and BC NDP leader Horgan were "unavailable" for media interviews this afternoon. Meanwhile BC Green leader Weaver was having a field day swamping the BC media this afternoon.

Gotta hand it to Weaver and the BC Greens. Again, they can smell a political "red meat" issue when they see one.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on March 08, 2017, 08:55:01 PM
^^^^

I saw this on the local news last night. Very smart for Weaver to make this an issue. Greens are already in double digits and this could bring them above 20%.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 09, 2017, 09:11:22 AM
Today's Mainstreet Research IVR/robo poll. Their 3rd in 3 weeks and looks to be a weekly fixture until e-day. Again, in BC, IVR is cheap junk polling based upon 2013 election and other BC elections:

BC NDP: 29%
BC Liberal: 26%
BC Green: 10%
BC Con: 10%
Undecided: 25%


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on March 17, 2017, 07:46:30 AM
Mainstreet Poll 3/11-12
http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/despite-campaign-finance-controversy-liberals-ndp-gain/

Decided/Leaning
NDP - 40%
BCL - 36%
Green - 13%
Con - 11%
... Looks at the trend since Feb, the NDP is ticking up every poll (37%, 38%, 39%, 40%) The BCL are static. NDP leads in VanIsd, GV; BCL leads "Rest of BC" BCL still have the strongest voter strength at 70% NDP not far behind with 63%, Green the weakest 45% (this is good news for the NDP since the Green second choice is NDP 45% vs BCL 16%) Interesting here is that the Conservative second choice is showing mostly Green 40%, NDP 28%, BCL 19%. The NDP also leads in every age bracket. Grain of salt polling.

Interestingly in regards to the Ironworkers Liberal endorsement, looks like there is a members movement against this, actual members, workers are not happy or supportive of the BCL endorsement. 3/25 we will see if there is a significant membership push to overturn this or making a competing endorsement for the NDP (or no one). But interesting infighting between Union executive and the membership. 

http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-ironworkers-fight-their-own-union-over-liberal-endorsement


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on March 17, 2017, 09:15:31 AM
Its fascinating how the "conventional wisdom' is that those voters who claim they would vote for the essentially defunct BC Conservatives will almost all end up voting for the BC Liberals. and yet, they have such an astonishingly high "rejection rate" for the BC Liberals with only 19% saying they would vote BC Liberal as a second choice...way behind the percentage who would vote NDP or even Green! and that pattern has been consistent in every wave of this survey.

What it suggests to me is the following:

1. There is a chunk of about 10% in BC who are wedded to the "conservative" name. These people tend to really really dislike Christy Clark who walks and talks like a federal Liberal. They are likely rural populists who see the BC Liberals as a "downtown business elite party" (which they are).

2. There is an anti-establishment, throw the bums out segment in BC that is "anyone but Liberal"

3. Clearly some of those BC Con people will end up voting BC Liberal...but perhaps no where as large a share of them as the BC Liberals need. I suspect that some will vote for what BC Conservatives candidates there on ballot, some will vote for the plethora of independents small 'c' conservative candidates who seem to be running quasi serious campaigns in various ridings. Some will cast an anti-Christy protest vote for the BC NDP or for the Greens and some will just stay home   


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on March 18, 2017, 06:29:02 PM

Interestingly in regards to the Ironworkers Liberal endorsement, looks like there is a members movement against this, actual members, workers are not happy or supportive of the BCL endorsement. 3/25 we will see if there is a significant membership push to overturn this or making a competing endorsement for the NDP (or no one). But interesting infighting between Union executive and the membership. 

http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-ironworkers-fight-their-own-union-over-liberal-endorsement

Most likely disgruntled old ideologues within the Ironworkers Union. Again, the 2013 BC election was a historical watershed election in that blue collar workers abandoned the BC NDP for the BC Libs - esp. in interior BC. Since then, we have already seen close links by the unionized BC Building Trades unions  and the BC Libs as well as internal dissension within USW ranks over their support of the BC NDP.

Within the last week or so the recently retired head of the ILWU penned this letter to the Province newspaper:

Quote
The Ironworkers’ endorsement of the B.C. Liberals comes as no surprise. In fact, what is surprising is that every union isn’t endorsing the Liberals over the NDP, considering that the NDP has allied itself with hardcore environmentalists whose goal is to eliminate, or drastically curtail, many of our traditional, resource-based industries.

Several years ago at a labour convention, I strongly warned NDP leader John Horgan that hopping into bed with environmentalists and social engineers didn’t sit well with our union and that if he wanted me to ask my members to vote NDP in the coming election he would need to turn the B.C. NDP around, back to its traditional role as a labour party, protecting workers’ rights and jobs.

We’re still waiting.

Gary Tupper, former president, International Longshore and Warehouse Union, Local 520, New Westminster

And one can see similar undercurrents from the IAMAW:

Quote
Horgan attempts to clarify NDP policies in meeting with Machinists!

15 March, 2017

Vancouver, BC – Until John Horgan attended a recent meeting of the membership of IAM District Lodge 250, Machinist support for the NDP in the upcoming provincial election on May 9th was less than lukewarm.

As far as the rank and file were concerned, there were too many unknowns about exactly where the NDP stood on issues like pipeline construction, environmental regulations, jobs, hydro-electric dam projects, and more. “We put out an invitation to NDP leader John Horgan to come and talk to the membership,” explained IAM District Lodge 250 Directing Business Representative Walter Gerlach. “We made it clear, if you want our support then you’ll have to explain your policies and that means face to face. To his credit, John came to our meeting and I think he cleared the air, dispelling the myths that were worrying our membership.”

“Did he win the members over, that’s hard to gauge, I would like to think so but time will tell,” said Gerlach. “He wants our support, now the members have to decide.”

To paraphrase Bob Dylan's old classic "The Times They Are A-Changin'".


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 01, 2017, 01:30:46 PM
Another Mainstreet Research opinion poll out today - IVR/robo poll. Am on record as stating this methodology is just cheap polling junk in BC... but am throwing it out there in any event.

Decided/Leaning:

BC NDP: 36%
BC Liberal: 34%
BC Green: 19%
BC Con: 11%

The regional result for Van Isle is certainly bizarre:

BC Green: 32%
BC Lib: 32%
BC NDP: 28%
BC Con: 7%

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/greens-tie-liberals-for-first-on-vancouver-island/

Also an interesting G&M article today on public BC opinion polling in both the BC 2013 election and public pollsters' thoughts for 2017... as well as political parties internal polling strategies:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-polling/article34548468/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: King of Kensington on April 03, 2017, 04:46:20 PM
How is the BC NDP handling the "jobs vs. environment" frame or materialism vs. post-materialism this time?  False dichotomy it may be, it has plagued the party since the 1990s.  Take too strong an environmental stance, you risk losing votes to the right, take too strong an "extractionist" stance you lose votes to greens.

The common narrative for BC 2013 is that Christy Clark put on a hard hat and promised construction jobs, costing the NDP votes in the interior.  Then again, the NDP did worse than expected in the Lower Mainland too, and I have my doubts this was why the Liberals won votes there too.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 08, 2017, 01:52:18 AM
Interesting to note that one advert that has been running constantly for a few weeks now all over various 6 pm evening newscasts, radio etc. [sponsored by a group apparently/obviously aligned with the BC Libs]... is about the Leap Manifesto.

Said advert also includes footage of BC NDP leader John Horgan from a few months ago, back in January, 2017, stating that he "doesn't disagree with the bulk of the Leap Manifesto and that he will be putting forward his own 'Leap Manifesto' in [this] election":

https://vimeo.com/209227555


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on April 08, 2017, 08:43:19 AM
Globe (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/with-bcs-election-campaign-set-to-begin-parties-prepare-for-the-groundwar/article34641739/) on ground wars & Vancouver  (http://vancouversun.com/news/politics/bcelection2017-key-battleground-ridings)Sun on key battlegrounds.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 08, 2017, 02:31:32 PM
The NDP has announced the last candidate to fill out their slate for the election in line with the campaign kickoff (Peace River South was the last riding.)

Due to the large demand here (every person has messaged me demanding this :D - actually nobody has) I will once again list the slate of NDP candidates for every riding. 

Please remain at your computers right on this web page until I do so.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 08, 2017, 03:54:21 PM
Vancouver
1.Vancouver-Fairview, George Heyman,67, Executive Director Sierra Club, former President BCGEU, runner and kayaker, M.L.A 2013-

2.Vancouver-False Creek, Morgane Oger,48, RO IT Systems Lead Consultant, Owner Pilothouse Marina (located in Powell River), President Trans-Alliance Society,  B.Sc-Mechanical Engineering and Naval Architecture

3.Vancouver-Fraserview, George Chow,66, Retired B.C Hyrdro Senior Engineer, B.Sc-Engineering, Vancouver City Councillor 2005-2011, 2013 nominee in Vancouver-Langara

4.Vancouver-Hastings, Shane Simpson, Smart Growth B.C Director of Policy and Communications,  Former Community Economic Program Instructor, Former CUPE Legislative Coordinator, Former Executive Director Worker Ownership Resource Center, Former Vice Chair Isadora's Cooperative Restaurant, M.L.A 2005-

5.Vancouver-Kensington, Mable Elmore,48, Bus Driver and Union Local Activist, B-Physical Education,  M.L.A 2009-

6.Vancouver-Kingsway, Adrian Dix,53, Executive Director Canadian Parents for French (Education) B.C and Yukon Branch, former Premier Glen Clark Chief of Staff, B.A-History and Political Science, M.L.A 2005-

7.Vancouver-Langara, James Wang, Canadian Overseas Holdings Vice President and Marketing Director, Canada Export Center Senior Advisor, M.B.A,  Burnaby City Councillor 2014-, Burnaby School Trustee 2008-2014, Golfer

8.Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, Melanie Mark, 41, B.C Children's Advocate Deputy Representative, B.A-Political Science and Sociology, Certificate-Children and Youth Human Rights, Executive Certificate-Business Administration and Management, M.L.A 2016-

9.Vancouver-Point Grey, David Eby,40, Human Rights Lawyer, Executive Director B.C Civil Liberties Association, Law Professor,  Former President Canadian HIV/AIDS Legal Network, B.A - English - rhetoric and professional writing, LLB - law, M.L.A 2013-

10.Vancouver-Quilchena, Madeline Lalonde,22, S.I Systems Inc I.T Recruiter (Employee Recruiter), B.A-Sociology

11.Vancouver-West End, Spencer Chandra Herbert,36, Dance Troupe Manager, B-Fine Arts, Vancouver Parks Commissioner 2005-2008, M.L.A 2008-


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 08, 2017, 05:28:35 PM
Greater Vancouver
1.Burnaby-Deer Lake, Anne Kang, Elementary School Music Teacher, B.-Music, B-Elementary Education, Certificate-Special Education- Gifted and Creative Learners, M-Special Education, Montessori Certificate, Burnaby City Councillor 2008-

2.Burnaby-Edmonds, Raj Chouhan, Hospital Employees Union Director of Bargaining, Founding President Canadian Farmworkers Union,  M.L.A 2005-

3.Burnaby Lougheed, Katrina Chen, M.P Peter Julien Constituency Assistant, B.A-Political Science (minor-history) Certificate - Immigration Laws, Policies and Procedures, Burnaby School Trustee 2014-

4.Burnaby North, Janet Routledge, Retired Public Service Alliance of Canada Regional Director, Employment and Insurance Board Referee, B.A-Political Science and Economics, M.A-Liberal Studies, Masters Thesis: "Why did the American White Working Class Vote for Sarah Palin?"  (She went back and earned her masters years after earning her B.A), 2013 nominee

5.Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Jodie Wickens,34, Executive Director Autism Support Network, B-Community Rehabilitation - Disability and Applied Behavior Analysis, Certificate - Behavior Intervention-Classroom and Community Support, M.L.A 2016-

6.Coquitlam-Maillardville, Selina Robinson,54, Self Employed Couple and Family Therapist, Counselling Instructor, SHARE Family Services Director of Development, M.A-Counselling Psychology, Coquitlam City Councillor 2008-2013, M.L.A 2013-

7.Delta North, Ravi Kahlon,38, N.D.P Caucus Director of Stakeholder Relations, Field Hockey Player and Olympian, Field Hockey Youth Coach

8.Delta South, Bruce Reid, High School Counselor and School Counselors Association President, Richmond Teacher's Association Executive, Former Salvation Army Pastor and Administrator, Delta School Trustee 2014-

9.New Westminster, Judy Darcy,67, Hospital Employees Union Business Manager, Former President CUPE, Studied Political Science, Kayaker, M.L.A 2013-

10.North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Bowinn Ma, Civil Engineer and Project Manager, B.Sc (Applied)- Civil Engineering, M-Management

11.North Vancouver-Seymour, Michael Charrois,54, Actor and Theater Arts Instructor, B-Fine Arts, 2008 and 2011 Federal Nominee and 2015 Candidate for Nomination, 2001 Provincial nominee

12.Port Coquitlam, Mike Farnworth,57,  International Democracy Organization Worker, Former M.L.A Constituency Assistant, B.Sc-Geography, Port Coquitlam City Councillor 1983-1990, M.L.A 1991-2001 2005-

13.Port Moody, Rick Glumac, Atmi Software Inc Development Team Lead, B.Sc-Electronics Engineering, Port Moody City Councillor 2011-

14.Richmond North Center, Lyren Chiu, Nursing Instructor and Former Professor, Executive Director Canadian Research Institute of Spirituality and Healing, Former Owner Beautiful Minds Wellness Center,  B.Sc-Nursing, M.Sc-Psychiatric Liaison Nursing (minors Nursing Administration),  PhD-Nursing

15.Richmond South Center, Chak Au, Mental Health Therapist and Richmond Mental Health Team Program Leader, Richmond School Trustee 1999-2011, Richmond City Councillor 2011-

16.Richmond-Queensborough, Amandeep Singh Chandi (Aman Singh), Human and Civil Rights Lawyer and Law Firm Partner, B.Sc-Anthropology and Physics, J.D

17.Richmond-Steveston, Kelly Greene,37 Co-Founder Richmond Schools Stand United

18.West Vancouver-Capilano, Mehdi Russel, Physician, Managing Director Bioca Pharma (pharmaceutical export consulting), Ondine Biomedical Inc Vice President International Marketing and Sales, M.D, M-Public Health, M.B.A, PhD-Health Planning and Management, Former Iranian Health Department Senior Civil Servant (Developed the Iranian Public Health Insurance System)

19.West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, Michelle Livaja,45, Former B.C Nurses Union Communications Specialist, Volunteer Tai-Chi Instructor, Certificate-Communications, Communications Student

Any errors in the information presented are the fault of anybody but me! :D


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 09, 2017, 01:51:56 AM

15.Richmond South Center, Chak Au, Mental Health Therapist and Richmond Mental Health Team Program Leader, Richmond School Trustee 1999-2011, Richmond City Councillor 2011-


Au was recruited/appointed/acclaimed by BC NDP HQ in this riding. BTW in the foregoing riding, with transposed 2013 results, BC NDP received 23% under new riding boundaries in 2013.

However, that appointment will obviously turn out to be quite problematic for BC NDP provincially heading into the writ period next Tuesday. Why?

Chinese Fairchild TV/radio had an interview with Au a few days ago... Au is obviously a very *social conservative* candidate, against human rights, also backed by the local Richmond Con MP Alice Wong:

Quote
Fairchild: NDP Richmond South Centre candidate Chak Au admits opposition to gay marriage, injection sites, gender-neutral washrooms, pot legalisation and early sex ed (translation)

https://www.reddit.com/r/britishcolumbia/comments/63loe5/fairchild_ndp_richmond_south_centre_candidate/

English Language media has not yet caught on to his very so-con views but causing a bit of a stir on social media tonight. Even BC Green Party leader Andrew Weaver has now espoused his concerns on social media, which also obviously will not make the BC NDP base happy.

Suspect that English media will catch on early next week at time of writ drop. Reminds me of a similar situation with BC NDP after writ drop in 2013:

Quote
Dayleen Van Ryswyk, Kelowna NDP Candidate, Quits Over Racist Comments

http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2013/04/16/dayleen-van-ryswyk-kelowna-ndp-racist_n_3093747.html


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 09, 2017, 06:02:11 AM
How did a socon get on the NDP ticket? Instamembers, or did the NDP do a crappy job on their vetting?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 09, 2017, 11:32:27 AM
How did a socon get on the NDP ticket? Instamembers, or did the NDP do a crappy job on their vetting?

If this is true, it would be a surprise to me.  I can't speak Chinese so I don't know what Chak Au said.

What I'm aware of is that some person placed an ad in a Chinese newspaper that said that with Chak Au as the NDP candidate, that Richmond would become like the Downtown Eastside with same sex marriages, sex education, injection sites and the like.

As I posted, Chak Au has been a school trustee and then a city councilor here in Richmond for nearly 20 years and he has been mostly associated with the 'left wing' on those boards.  If he had ever made a comment against sex education in schools as a school trustee I have no doubt it would have become a major issue.  The most controversial thing about him is that he has switched municipal political parties a couple times and ran with the more 'right wing' slate the last time around.  However, he generally votes with the more 'left wing' faction on council.

For instance, in the 2013 provincial election, he supported fellow city councilor Carol Day who ran with the B.C Conservative Party.  However, as I've noted before, the B.C Conservatives, unlike the Federal Conservatives (the two parties are not united and most federal Conservatives support the B.C Liberals)
the B.C Conservatives are more of a populist party and Carol Day on city council mostly votes with the 'left wing' faction especially in terms of opposing 'runaway' property development.

Chak Au was also asked to run for the Federal Conservatives in 2015 and apparently briefly considered the idea.  

It should be noted here that Au has been totally open about all of these things and has not tried to hide his political 'machinations.'  So, that he would have covered up his views on these issues for going on 20 years would be a major surprise to me.

This is me speculating, but I would be surprised if the Provincial NDP did not discuss Chak Au with longtime city councilor and former Richmond M.L.A Harold Steves before talking to Au about the possibility of running.

I would remind you that the Original Poster here on this is Lotuslander and that only a fool would believe anything he says without checking and double checking.

He could be right, but I haven't seen anything about it and it would be a surprise to me.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 09, 2017, 12:32:02 PM
Surrey
1.Surrey-Cloverdale, Rebecca Smith, Executive Director Surrey Hospice Society, Management Consultant and Firm Owner (Valshiva Consulting), Former Executive Director B.C Psychological Association, Former President Bully Free B.C,  B.A - Political Science and Government, M.B.A, Certification - Public Relations, Advertising and Applied Communications, 2015 Federal NDP nominee

2.Surrey-Fleetwood, Jagrup Brar,58, Former Radio India Talk Show Host, Former Executive Director Surrey Self Employment and Entrepreneur Development Society (SEEDS), M.P.A, M-Philosophy, Former Indian National Team Basketball Player, M.L.A 2004-2013

3.Surrey-Green Timbers, Rachna Singh, CUPE National Representative, Former Drug and Alcohol Counselor, M.A-Psychology

4.Surrey-Guilford, Garry Begg,66, Retired RCMP Senior Inspector, Police Institute Graduate - Law and Justice, 2015 Federal Nominee

5.Surrey-Newton, Harry Bains,65, I.W.A. Local Vice President, M.L.A 2005-

6.Surrey-Panorama, Jinny Sims,64, Former President B.C Teacher's Federation, Former High School English Teacher, B-Education, M.P 2011-2015

7.Surrey-South, Jonathan Silveira, Re/Max Realtor and Mortgage Broker, 2014 Surrey School Board Candidate (Received highest vote of any non winning candidate, though still only around half the votes of the lowest Surrey First slate candidate)

8.Surrey-Whalley, Bruce Ralston,64, Lawyer and Firm Owner,  Former Director and Chair VanCity Savings Credit Union, Former President B.C N.D.P, B.A - History, J.D, Surrey City Councillor 1988-1993, M.L.A 2005-

9.Surrey-White Rock, Niovi Patsicakos,60, Retired Special Education Teacher, Former President Association of Surrey Specialist Educators, Former B.C.T.F Activist, M-Education-Remediation and Special Education, 2014 Surrey School Board Candidate


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 09, 2017, 02:11:51 PM
How did a socon get on the NDP ticket? Instamembers, or did the NDP do a crappy job on their vetting?

Doubt many NDP members in the riding of Richmond South Centre considering that they received 23% here with 2013 transposed results. Suspect that Au was recruited by NDP HQ and then anointed/acclaimed.

A few days ago, Au was interviewed in Cantonese by Fairchild TV/Radio and stating his socon views and opposition to gay marriage, injection sites, gender-neutral washrooms, pot legalisation and early sex ed.

What's even more surprising is that Au told Fairchild TV that he was invited by the BC NDP to run and that the NDP assured him that he can vote his conscience on these sensitive issues.

Fairchild media interview here with translation:

https://www.facebook.com/am1470fm961/videos/1669655613059464/

This matter just got picked up early yesterday evening on social media and English-language media is not yet aware of same. Problem is that if/when they pick it up, likely this week, could cause a major distraction for BC NDP campaign after writ is dropped on Tuesday. Bizarre.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 09, 2017, 08:13:45 PM
Fraser Valley
1.Abbotsford-Mission, Andrew Christie, Gordon Neighborhood House Community Food Advocate, former Head Chef and Food Security Coordinator, (Lives in Vancouver)

2.Abbotsford South, Jasleen Arora, Simon Fraser University Steps Forward Senior Facilitator (SFU Campus) (Supports Post Secondary Students with Developmental Disabilities),  B.A - Criminology and Sociology, M.Sc- Leadership and Organizations - Philanthropic Leadership, (Lives in Burnaby)

3.Abbotsford West, Preet Rai, Chartered Accountant and B.C Government Auditor, B - Commerce - Accounting, Abbotsford School Trustee 2008-, 2013 Nominee (Lives in Abbotsford :D )

4.Chilliwack, Tracey O'Hara, School District Secretary, CUPE Local First Vice President and Former Shop Steward, Fraser Valley (Labor) District Council Trustee

5.Chilliwack-Kent, Patti MacAhonic, Executive Director (Chilliwack) Ann Davis Transition Society,  C.E.O and Lead Consultant Executive Business Smarts and L-Attitude in Leadership Consulting Ltd, Former Executive Director Chilliwack Chamber of Commerce, MBA - Management Consulting, B.A (Hons)-Adult Education, Provincial Instructor Diploma, 2013 Nominee, 2014 City Council Candidate (Top Non Winning Candidate)

6.Langley, Gail Chaddock Costello, Langley Teacher's Association President, Former Education Professor, Former School Principal, Bed and Breakfast Owner, B.A- B - Education, M - Education, 2009 Nominee, 2013 Candidate for Nomination

7.Langley East, Inder Johal, Kwantlen (Polytechnic University) Public Interest Research Group Marketing and Communications Coordinator, B.C Fed of Labor Health and Safety Center Workshop Facilitator - Alive After Five Program (Occupational Health and Safety Programs for High School Students and Young Workers), B.A - Criminal Justice, A.A - Criminology, Certificate - Graphic Design

8.Maple Ridge-Mission, Bob D'Eith,52, Entertainment Lawyer and Firm Owner, Music Consultant, Pianist, Author, Former Executive Director Music B.C,  Record Label and Publishing Owner (Adagio Music Inc), B.A(Hons) - History, 2015 Federal Nominee, 2013 Provincial Candidate for Nomination

9.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare,40, Former Flight Attendant,  Former CUPE Local Vice President, Diploma - Local Government Management, Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows School Trustee 2014-


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 10, 2017, 11:42:09 AM
Here is a brilliant ad from Better Government for BC that lays out the case for how Christy Clark is totally corrupt and has got to go.

https://youtu.be/zV-N9vlURuU

Its gonna be a nailbiter. Insight West has a kick off poll out today

http://www.insightswest.com/news/clark-drops-horgan-stable-weaver-surges-in-british-columbia/

NDP - 40%
BC Libs - 38%
Greens - 17%
BC Cons - 3%
Other - 2%

There is literally nothing left for the Bc Libs to draw from the defunct BC Conservatives - but the NDP could gain a lot of ground as people parked with the Greens start to vote strategically for the only part that can give "Crooked Christy" the boot. Note that the poll also shows that the vast majority want a change of government and even more disturbing to the Bc Liberals, when people are asked what the top election issue is 39% say "housing/poverty/homeless" (an NDP strong suit), 20% say health care (another NDP strong suit) and just 19% say the economy (the only Liberal strong suit)...oh yeah and only 7% say the environment is the top issue whihc doesnt bode well for the Greens in the long run


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 10, 2017, 02:05:47 PM
I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on April 10, 2017, 03:16:56 PM
I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

The article on CBC http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/chak-au-attack-ads-1.4061606 is saying the opposite, that Au is being targted as SUPPORTING "...for drug injection sites, gender neutral bathrooms, encourages sex education for young children and supports same sex marriage."

I also Follow Spencer Herbert Chandra and he posted about this...
"Had a great meeting this morning to discuss our common fight against racist stereotypes, homophobic, and transphobic discrimination with Chak Au who is running to be an MLA in Richmond, and Morgane Oger who is running in Vancouver False Creek. On May 9 we can elect a government that truly values our province's diversity, and actively supports all of our right to be who we are free of hate and discrimination."
In a reply to someone who asked about Au's positions "...I was referring to the attack ads running saying the NDP had ruined the east side because we support LGBT people which made false claims about him, which is where the story originated. I met him today and was comfortable with what he told me. But then everyone has to judge for themselves, and I don't speak Cantonese so I can't speak to what you saw, only what he and I discussed this morning. Thanks for your comments and support! I'm focussd on serving the people of the West End and Coal Harbour as you know. I reached out to him to see if there was truth to the online comments."
"He was very clear to me that he supports same sex marriage, adoption, and trans human rights to name a few areas we agree on. I believe he is doing media on this soon which hopefully helps clear the air on this."
... we will see.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 10, 2017, 04:07:20 PM
I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

The article on CBC http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/chak-au-attack-ads-1.4061606 is saying the opposite, that Au is being targted as SUPPORTING "...for drug injection sites, gender neutral bathrooms, encourages sex education for young children and supports same sex marriage."

I also Follow Spencer Herbert Chandra and he posted about this...
"Had a great meeting this morning to discuss our common fight against racist stereotypes, homophobic, and transphobic discrimination with Chak Au who is running to be an MLA in Richmond, and Morgane Oger who is running in Vancouver False Creek. On May 9 we can elect a government that truly values our province's diversity, and actively supports all of our right to be who we are free of hate and discrimination."
In a reply to someone who asked about Au's positions "...I was referring to the attack ads running saying the NDP had ruined the east side because we support LGBT people which made false claims about him, which is where the story originated. I met him today and was comfortable with what he told me. But then everyone has to judge for themselves, and I don't speak Cantonese so I can't speak to what you saw, only what he and I discussed this morning. Thanks for your comments and support! I'm focussd on serving the people of the West End and Coal Harbour as you know. I reached out to him to see if there was truth to the online comments."
"He was very clear to me that he supports same sex marriage, adoption, and trans human rights to name a few areas we agree on. I believe he is doing media on this soon which hopefully helps clear the air on this."
... we will see.


Sounds more and more like Lotuslander deliberately posted 'fake news' here.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 10, 2017, 09:10:18 PM
I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

Sigh. You have repeatedly boasted that you have put me on your ignore list. All disingenuous. As usual.  You are nothing more than a loony conspiracy theorist. Now buzz off troll.

----------------------------------------------------

For others here.  Chinese-Canadian BC NDP candidate Au gave an interview last week in Cantonese to Fairchild media espousing his social conservative views. Au says one thing to English media and another thing to Chinese media. No wonder, as the Chinese community trends culturally social conservative.

Even today, I see both BC Lib and BC Green strategists allude to the matter on social media. If I was a strategist in one of these parties, I would alert the mainstream media a few weeks into the writ period.

In any event, one non-MSM outlet already seems to have picked up the story tonight... I am as straight as an arrow, but I believe that this is a gay publication (never heard of it before):

Quote
DailyXtra

Richmond NDP candidate’s statements on LGBT rights don’t all add up
What did Chak Au really say about his ‘moral issues’?

Published on Mon, Apr 10, 2017 7:02 pm.

by Niko Bell

<snippet>

A few days earlier on April 4, however, in an interview with Cantonese-language Fairchild Radio, Au says he thinks the ads are “reasonable” and not really an attack on him at all. He also says his moral views on these questions have not changed, and that NDP leader John Horgan promised him he could vote his conscience on “sensitive” moral issues.

In an interview with Sing Tao on April 9, Au reiterates that his moral positions have never changed, and that Horgan has promised him the freedom to vote how he likes.

“If the NDP in the future bring up in the legislature policies or positions that do not benefit voters, or are contrary to my faith or beliefs, I will not go along with them,” he says in Chinese. “[The NDP] agreed I could vote my conscience on these sensitive questions. This was a condition of my joining the NDP.”

To the English-language South China Morning Post, Au sidesteps the question, saying the issues in the ads are “not the focus of my campaign.”<snippet>

http://www.dailyxtra.com/vancouver/news-and-ideas/news/richmond-ndp-candidate%E2%80%99s-statements-lgbt-rights-don%E2%80%99t-add-218657


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 10, 2017, 09:12:45 PM
After weeks of Mainstreet Research's IVR/robo polls, Insights West today came out with one of their opt-in online panel polls. As an aside, the guy at Insights West is Mario Canseco, who was apparently fired after the 2013 BC election debacle at Angus Reid Strategies. Interesting to note that Mario has brought over the same poll format to Insights West.

In any event, Insights West decided numbers (with change from previous February 26 poll):

BC NDP: 40% (-1%)
BC Liberal: 38% (-2%)
BC Green: 17% (+6%)
BC Con: 3% (-2%)
Other: 2% (-1%)

http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/BCElection_Tables.pdf

Interestingly enough, IW's numbers have not changed much since their other previous poll in November, 2016 either.

Again, take these IVR/opt-in online panel polls with a grain of salt. This cheap polling junk fooled everyone back in the 2013 BC election. Many folk who follow this stuff have learnt their lesson.

For example, at the start of the 2013 BC election campaign, Angus Reid (opt-in online panel pollster) had the BC NDP with a 17% lead - their poll prior to e-day 2013 had a 9% BC NDP lead. Ekos, an IVR pollster, also had the BC NDP with a 17% lead initially and a 6% BC NDP lead in the final days of the 2013 campaign. Of course, the BC Libs won with a 4% margin.

BTW, I was advised a few weeks back by Kyle Braid, VP with Ipsos-Reid, that they will produce 3 polls during the 2017 BC election campaign - at beginning, mid-campaign, and at the end. Again, Ipsos is an opt-in online pollster, which also had an 8% BC NDP lead in their final poll before e-day 2013.

Like all of us political junkies... we love polls... even for fun... but don't put much, if any, credence on the foregoing pollsters/methodologies esp. in BC.

Now for the good polling stuff - CATI - the gold standard of polling. Innovative Research, a CATI pollster, produced a CATI poll last August, 2016. IR's prez, Greg Lyle, also knows BC and understands how to poll in BC, which can be a difficult jurisdiction to do so. Apparently, Innovative Research has CATI polling data now in the docket, which will be produced in next few days.

Even then, most of the BC populace is not paying attention to the forthcoming election. Only 2 weeks in, and during/after the TV leader's debate, does the campaign attract the full attention of the electorate.  With good CATI data then, will provide a true picture of the BC political landscape.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 10, 2017, 10:13:18 PM
I'm still seeing no reporting on the alleged story on Chak Au.  I'm more than a little suspicious that that post was deliberate 'fake news' by Lotuslander.  If that is the case, I hope the moderator here finally bans Lotuslander.

Sigh. You have repeatedly boasted that you have put me on your ignore list. All disingenuous. As usual.  You are nothing more than a loony conspiracy theorist. Now buzz off troll.




I've told you before that, while I have you on ignore, I check any posts of yours that you make right after I post to see if you commented on anything I wrote.  Obviously I'm not going to give you a free license to lie about what I post.  You are a lying troll, and if you don't want to deal with me here, you should just leave.  While I like to only speak for myself, I don't think anybody here would miss you.

As to what Chak Au said, he seemed to be deliberately vague in what he said to the Chinese media, but he also never said that he agreed with any socially conservative positions.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on April 10, 2017, 11:26:57 PM


In any event, one non-MSM outlet already seems to have picked up the story tonight... I am as straight as an arrow, but I believe that this is a gay publication (never heard of it before):


You pride yourself of being oh-so media-connected and aware and savvy, yet ***you've never heard of DailyXtra before?!?!?!?***  What kind of bubble are you in?!?

Come to think of it, your need to qualify yourself with "I am as straight as an arrow" sounds like you're in some kind of 1986ish suspended animation where Gay Pride celebrations were to be avoided like the gay plague.  Look, kiddo; it's 2017.  It doesn't mean you have to follow it religiously or agree with the viewpoints within, but DailyXtra is a perfectly normal and accepted part of the Vancouver mediasphere.  You don't have to fear people spotting that article in your uncleared cache and thinking "uh-oh, Lotuslander's a closet case".  It's not Grindr or anything; it's not going to give you some kind of cyber-gay-cooties, it's not going to lead to endless popups advertising Hot Men! etc etc.

Frankly, you sound as clueless as...
https://www.thestar.com/news/gta/2011/07/26/doug_ford_blasts_margaret_atwood_over_libraries_says_i_dont_even_know_her.html


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 10, 2017, 11:35:51 PM
Oh FFS. The same loony/ideological nutbar trolls posting yet contributing nothing to this thread. Run along.

Alrighty then, BC election writ will be dropped tomorrow. Then it's game on.

A look at 2 sites involving the BC election:

1. Sauder School of Business Prediction Markets (formerly UBC stock market):

http://predictionmarkets.ca/BC17.php

Actually I am invested in same ($1,000 max) and also was in 2013 market (made good coin!);

2. Election Prediction Project:

http://www.electionprediction.org/2017_bc/index.php


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 11, 2017, 01:05:11 AM
Bryan Breguet‏'s "TooCloseToCall" website tonight predicts the possible BC election outcomes as of right now. Remember, these predictions are based upon the cheap junk IVR/opt-in online panel polls:

()


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on April 11, 2017, 07:15:57 AM
Oh FFS. The same loony/ideological nutbar trolls posting yet contributing nothing to this thread. Run along.

So the queer press is loony/ideological nutbar to you?  O-kay....



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 11, 2017, 04:04:58 PM
Ipsos just released their first poll of the campaign using a mixed phone and online methodology

BC NDP - 44%
BC Liberals - 39%
Greens - 12%

http://linkis.com/www.cknw.com/2017/04/P28tV


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 11, 2017, 10:25:06 PM
Southern and Central Interior
1.Boundary-Similkameen, Colleen Ross,55, Organic Farmer, Boundary Region Agriculture Society Project Coordinator, Former Vice President National Farmers Union,  B.A - Agriculture Business Management, Grand Forks City Councillor 2014-, Kayaker

2.Columbia River-Revelstoke, Gerry Taft,35, Owner Gerry's Gelati Cafe and Stolen Church Coffee Company, Diploma - Hotel, Motel and Restaurant Management, Invermere City Councillor 2002-2008, Invermere Mayor 2008-

3.Fraser-Nicola, Harry Lali,61, Small Environmental Technology Import/Export Company Partner, Former Adult Employment Counsellor and Sporting Goods Store Co-Owner, B.A - History and South Asia Area Studies, Merritt City Councillor 1987-1990, M.L.A 1991-2001, 2005-2013

4.Kamloops-North Thompson, Barb Nederpel, Royal Inland Hospital Clerk/Care Aide, Hospital Employees Union First Vice President, President, Kamloops and District Labor Council (As Bob Mackin pointed out, the first syllables in her last name are N D P)

5.Kamloops-South Thompson, Nancy Bepple, Thompson Rivers University Career/Education STEM Co-op Coordinator, B.Sc-Mathematics and Computer Science, MSc-Atmospheric Science, PhD-Education Policy and Leadership, Thesis: International Students Strategies To Obtain Career-Related Work In Canada After Graduation, Kamloops City Councillor 2008-2014, Banjo Player

6.Kelowna East, Shelley Cook, Former Executive Director John Howard Society of Central and South Okanagan, Former Correctional Services of Canada Program Facilitator, B.A (Hons) - Psychology, M.A-Human and Social Development, PhD Candidate - Community, Culture and Global Studies

7.Kelowna-Lake Country,Erik Olesen,26, Former WallMart Assistant Manager, Former White Spot Restaurant Manager, Pre Nursing Diploma, Biochemistry and Molecular Biology Diploma, Power Equipment Certificate, Lives in Vernon

8.Kelowna-Mission, Harwinder Sandhu, Surgical Nurse and Vernon Jubilee Hospital Union Steward, Lives in Vernon

9.Kootenay East, Randal Macnair, Publishing Firm Owner (Oolichan Books), Treasurer Association of Book Publishers of British Columbia, Former Museum Curator, Previously worked in forestry, fishing and construction,  Fernie City Councillor 1999-2002, 2008-2014, Fernie Mayor 2002-2008, B.A -, 2013 Candidate for Nomination

10.Kootenay West, Katrine Conroy, Executive Director Kootenay Family Place, Former Early Childhood Educator, Cattle Rancher, Former College Instructor, Former Power Engineer, M.L.A 2005-

11.Nelson-Creston, Michelle Mungall,38, Nelson Food Cupboard (Food Bank) Manager,  B.A (Hons) - Political Science, M.A - Nelson City Councillor 2002-2005, M.L.A 2009-, Skiier and Hiker

12.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed,38, Owner Basanti Interactive Media, B-Management Information Systems,  M.B.A, LEAN Green Belt Certification - Process Improvement, Process Management Certificate, Executive Certificate - Organizational Leadership, Penticton City Councillor 2014-

13.Shuswap, Sylvia Lindgren, School Education Assistant, CUPE Local President, Former Private Senior's Care Home Owner (Carlin Cottage), B-Physical Education and Special Education

14.Vernon-Monashee, Barry Dorval, High School English Teacher, Former President Vernon Teacher's Association, Hiker, Cycling and Squash Player


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 12, 2017, 12:01:03 AM
Ipsos just released their first poll of the campaign using a mixed phone and online methodology

BC NDP - 44%
BC Liberals - 39%
Greens - 12%

http://linkis.com/www.cknw.com/2017/04/P28tV

As Ipsos VP Kyle Braid confirmed to me a few weeks back - their 1st/3 polls of the BC campaign alluded to in my previous post.

72% opt-in online/28% phone. Would be interesting to see break-down of 2 methodologies but, of course, they will not provide same.

Harken back to the first Ipsos poll of the 2013 BC campaign:

Quote
NDP Start BC Campaign with 19 Point Lead

NDP (48%, down 3) and BC Liberals (29%, down 3) Lose Support to BC Conservatives (11%, up 2) and Green Party (9%, up 2)

Approval Ratings Unchanged for Christy Clark (30%, no change) and Adrian Dix (51%, no change)

Dix (36%, down 1) Continues to Lead Clark (23%, no change) as Best Premier
Tuesday, April 16, 2013

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6067

And of course, Ipsos' final poll on the last day of the 2013 BC campaign:

Quote
BC NDP Lead By 8 Points As Campaign Ends

NDP (45%, up 2) Lead BC Liberals (37%, unchanged) by 8 Points

Green Party (9%, down 1) and BC Conservatives (6%, down 1) Both Down Single Point

Adrian Dix (34%, up 3) and Christy Clark (33%, down 1) Tied as Best Premier
Tuesday, May 14, 2013

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=6113

Fun for us political junkies. Just cheap polling junk in terms of reliability.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 12, 2017, 01:10:55 AM
North
1.Cariboo North, Scott Elliott, Liquor Store Clerk and Store Shop Steward, Former Owner Trout Tales Fly Fishing Adventures, Quesnel City Councillor 2011-

2.Cariboo-Chilcotin, Sally Watson,62, Rural Mail Carrier, Former Lumber Grader, Former Tire Store Owner, Thompson-Nicola Regional District Director 2002-

3.Nechako Lakes, Anne Marie Sam, School District 51 Trustee 2011-2014, Nak’azdli Whut’en Band Councillor 2014-, B.Sc- M.ASc candidate (Applied Science) -  Mining Engeering

4.North Coast, Jennifer Rice, T. Buck Suzuki Environmental Foundation Energy Campaigner, Self Employed Biological Technician, former Environmental Science Journalist, Former SCUBA Instructor, Diploma-Applied Coastal Ecology, Certificate - Not for Profit Management,   Prince Rupert City Councillor 2011-2013, M.L.A 2013-, SCUBA Diver and Kayaker

5.Peace River North, Robert Dempsey, High School Social Studies and Law Teacher, Union Local Activist, Former Corrections Officer, Former Armed Forces Reserves Officer, B.A -

6.Peace River South, Stephanie (Watson) Goudie, Dawson Creek Aquatic Center Front Desk Clerk, Dawson Creek Literary Society Project Lead, CUPE Local Vice President, Studied Social Sciences

7.Powell River-Sunshine Coast, Nicholas Simons,52, Sechelt Nation Director of Health and Social Development, Former Child Protection Social Worker, Former Criminology Instructor, Former President Sunshine Coast Arts Council B.A - Criminology, M.A - Criminology, Professional Cello Player, M.L.A 2005-

8.Prince George-Mackenzie, Bobby Deepak, Labor Lawyer and Firm Owner (North Labour Law Corporation), Law and Criminology Instructor, B.A (Hons) - Criminology, J.D, 2013 Nominee

9.Prince George-Valemount, Natalie Fletcher, Hospital Sterile Processing Technician, Hospital Employees Union Representative, Vice President North Central Labour Council

10.Skeena, Bruce Bidgood, Social Work Professor, B.A - M -Social Work, PhD - Applied Social Welfare Research and Social Policy,  Former Terrace City Councillor 2008-2014, 2014 Terrace Mayor Candidate

11.Stikine, Doug Donaldson,60 Executive Director Storyteller's Foundation (North West Economic Development Non Profit Organization), Former Journalism Instructor, Former Forestry Consulting Firm Biologist, Former Tourism Business Owner/Operator, Director Bulkley Valley Credit Union,  B.Sc - Biology, M.A - Journalism, Hiker, Hazelton City Councillor 1999-2009, M.L.A 2009-


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 12, 2017, 08:32:09 AM
Another junk IVR/robo poll by Forum Research:

NDP: 39%
Lib: 29%
Green: 18%
Con: 12%
Other: 3%

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/3d29e436-c19d-4939-aecf-11517b1b6687BC%20HR%20.pdf


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 12, 2017, 10:48:33 AM
Its easy to dismiss IVR polls as "junk" but unlike online polls which are based on online panels that may or may not be representative of the electorate - IVR is based on random digit dialling of the the entire population...and in the last federal election as well as in just about all of the last few provincial elections - IVR polls have been pretty accurate in predicting the result - certainly no worse than old-fashioned live-interviewer phone polls.

At least we are getting some phone based public domain polls this time. In 2013 literally ALL of the publicly released polls in BC were online polls...and there is a theory that in 2013 as a result of the anti-HST referendum that had happened a year earlier, the BC online panels got skdewed with too many people who were angry at the BC Liberals. FWIW in the 2009 BC election, we saw the reverse phenomenon, most of the polls released during the campaign were traditional phone polls and they all gave exaggerated leads to the BC Liberals of 8-13 points...the one and only online poll was done by Angus Reid and their final poll gave the BC Liberals a slender 44-42% lead...the final result was BC Liberals 45% and NDP 42%...so go figure.

Usually Forum does seat projections with their polls. They seem gun-shy about doing that with their latest BC poll...but its worth noting that in 1972 the NDP beat Social Credit 39% to 29%...and the seat count ended up being NDP 38 and Social Credit 10!

Of course a lot can and will happen over the next four weeks...but I don't doubt that the snapshot on the day the writ was dropped is a narrow NDP lead...whether it stays that way for four weeks is up in the air.  So far Christy Clark seems to be trying to replicate Stephen Harper's re-election campaign strategy from 2015...a blah platform that is conspicuous for how it has almost nothing in it...plus trying to replay tired old scare campaigns against the opposition. It could work, but sometimes parties try to recycle the same strategy one time too many


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on April 12, 2017, 08:56:35 PM
Its easy to dismiss IVR polls as "junk" but unlike online polls which are based on online panels that may or may not be representative of the electorate - IVR is based on random digit dialling of the the entire population...and in the last federal election as well as in just about all of the last few provincial elections - IVR polls have been pretty accurate in predicting the result - certainly no worse than old-fashioned live-interviewer phone polls.

It's "junk" to those like Lotuslander whose preferred approach to elections is more like playing the stock market (as per his Sauder/UBC comment) than anything.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 13, 2017, 12:00:01 AM
IVR has a terrible track record in BC. For starters, some of the IVR riding polls for the 2015 federal election in BC defied logic - the 2015 fed election results confirmed some IVR riding polls were wayyyyyyy off.

Again, during the last 2013 BC election, Ekos (IVR pollster) had the BC NDP ahead by 17% at the beginning of the 2013 campaign:

Quote
EKOS POLITICS

BC NDP VICTORY ALL BUT CERTAIN

April 12, 2013

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_bc_april_12_2013.pdf

At the end of the 2013 BC election campaign, Ekos held that the BC NDP had a 6% lead:

Quote
EKOS POLITICS

TIGHTENING BC RACE SEES NDP WITH NARROW BUT
SIGNIFICANT LEAD WITH LIKELY VOTERS

May 13, 2013

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-content/uploads/full_report_bc_may_13_2013.pdf

Now we come back to Forum Research known as the McDonald's of the Canadian polling industry. A few weeks back, I posted herein the Forum Research numbers, which also had a 10% BC NDP lead.

Today's numbers again have a 10% BC NDP lead. But look closer - no "undecided" figure, which is always critical in election polling.

Moreover, Forum has the Cons at 12% - hell, for the first time in BC history, since the BC Cons were established back in 1903, they have no leader during a BC election. According to their website, they currently have 8 unofficial candidates/87 ridings. BC Cons have absolutely zero media coverage. No doubt that the BC Cons are back in fringe territory akin to the period between 1979 and 2009. I also have no doubt that the BC Cons will receive <1% popular vote share in 2017.

So why the 12% BC Con figure? Obviously brand confusion with the fed Cons. Most of the BC electorate not paying attention right now.

BTW, at the end of the 2013 BC election, Forum Research had its 2nd and final poll of the campaign and it still had a BC NDP win albeit closer than others.

IVR/robo polling in general typically attracts those who are "motivated" in terms of responding. Also very cheap stuff to produce. Unlike CATI with live telephone interviewers, IVR robo polls have no call-backs. On a personal note, over the past 5 years, I have been contacted by Forum Research twice (2 years apart) and did not answer phone. OTOH, during 2015 fed election, was contacted by a CATI pollster and finally answered after 3rd calling attemot.

And we are also seeing today what we were seeing back in the 2013 BC election - different IVR/opt-in online pollsters all over the map with their numbers. Caveat emptor.

OTOH, only much more expensive CATI polling has nailed BC election results. In 2013 BC election, BC Lib internal CATI polling (provincially/riding) nailed the results days before e-day - 4 days before e-day projected 48 seats (won 49). Also nailed the final BC province-wide results. Everyone (opt-in online panel/IVR) was on one side in the 2013 BC election, while the BC Libs internals were the only one on the "other" side. Why? Because CATI.

Nanos, CATI pollster, has nailed the last 5 fed elections. Also nailed the last 2 fed election BC results with their small ~140 sub-sample size - one helluva track record. Why? Because CATI.

Back in August, 2016, Innovative Research, CATI pollster, released their first ever BC polling results. Not long after, Mainstreet Research (IVR) also released BC results. Both results were completely different. Based upon 2013 election polling, quite simple to understand reasons behind same.

Now who is Innovative Research? Been around for ~15 years and the principle is Greg Lyle who is from BC and understands how to poll BC. Are their CATI polls accurate? Well, last fall both Nanos (CATI) and IR released provincial ON polls and they basically mirrored each others results. Nanos also nailed the previous ON provincial election.

Innovative Research will be releasing new BC CATI numbers soon and personally that firm will be the only one that I will rely on in terms of accuracy. I always prefer both reliability and accuracy. But if some wish to rely on obvious cheap junk polling in BC - no skin off my back. ;)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 13, 2017, 01:22:12 PM
Mainstreet has a new poll with big honking sample size of over 5,000!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-ndp-gain-campaign-begins/

NDP 39% (up 3%)
BC Libs 35% (up 2%)
Greens -19% (unchanged)
Conservatives 7% (down 4%)

It must be very very very distressing to the BC Liberals that they are not benefiting from the inevitable collapse of the moribund BC Conservatives...but this is consistent with how previous polls showed that relatively few Conservative supporters had the Liberals as their second choice. Let's face it, its hard to imagine a BC Liberal leader who would be more repulsive to diehard small "c" conservatives than Christy Clark. She is gltzy, elitist, wears furs and is a dyed in the wool federal Liberal. If you are a rightwing populist federal Conservative type in the interior - you take one look at Christy and all you can think is "stinkeroo"!

It gets worse for the Liberals. The Green vote is very soft and if and when their vote declines as people start to vote "strategically" - for every one vote the Libs get, the NDP will get 4 or 5.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 13, 2017, 04:39:02 PM
Mainstreet has a new poll with big honking sample size of over 5,000!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-ndp-gain-campaign-begins/

NDP 39% (up 3%)
BC Libs 35% (up 2%)
Greens -19% (unchanged)
Conservatives 7% (down 4%)

It must be very very very distressing to the BC Liberals that they are not benefiting from the inevitable collapse of the moribund BC Conservatives...but this is consistent with how previous polls showed that relatively few Conservative supporters had the Liberals as their second choice. Let's face it, its hard to imagine a BC Liberal leader who would be more repulsive to diehard small "c" conservatives than Christy Clark. She is gltzy, elitist, wears furs and is a dyed in the wool federal Liberal. If you are a rightwing populist federal Conservative type in the interior - you take one look at Christy and all you can think is "stinkeroo"!

It gets worse for the Liberals. The Green vote is very soft and if and when their vote declines as people start to vote "strategically" - for every one vote the Libs get, the NDP will get 4 or 5.

Wow NDP and Greens are tied on Vancouver island!


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 14, 2017, 10:51:35 PM
Mainstreet has a new poll with big honking sample size of over 5,000!

DL. You are a pollster. You should very well know that any sample size over 1,000 leads to diminishing returns in terms of margin of error. Even then, Mainstreet Research has basically the same results with it's smaller n = 1,650 sample size in its previous poll. Forget about the fact that IVR/robo pollsters in BC have been notoriously wayyyyyy off.

So you then actually agree that the BC Greens are at 19% in BC and are tied with the BC NDP on Van Isle? Obviously means BC Green vote concentrated on the southern half of Van Isle and major loss of NDP seats. Frankly, doubt that ya agree with that. ;)

Hell, I have been following national German pollsters, for example, for over a decade, and the smallest sample size utilized by one of the German major pollsters is  n = ~1,000+ for obvious reasons described above.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 15, 2017, 07:23:14 AM
The wheels are really coming off the BC Liberal campaign. Clark is being universally panned for running a dull uninspiring campaign and yesterday she even managed to make a fool of herself on Good Friday with bizarre comments about how "Good Friday shows us that hard work will be rewarded"...come again Christy, if I work hard I'll be nailed to a cross?.. anyways she has been ridiculed on social media and denounced as a know nothing by theologians. Back in 2013 she gave an interview she gave an interview to a fundamentalist Christian TV show where claimed that the Bible guided everything she did (lol)...well if she had ever actually read the Bible and wasn't faking it to get votes from the "Bible belt" she would not have said such weird things about the meaning of Good Friday. But if there is one thing Clark has always been it's a superficial phoney.

http://bc.ctvnews.ca/work-and-sacrifice-are-rewarded-b-c-premier-s-good-friday-tweet-causes-stir-1.2314278

Now top political columnists are comparing her campaign to Stephen Harper's I'll-fated reelection campaign in 2015!

https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/clarks-uninspiring-battle-plan-reminiscent-of-harpers/article34714908/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 15, 2017, 08:37:17 AM
Mainstreet has a new poll with big honking sample size of over 5,000!

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-ndp-gain-campaign-begins/

NDP 39% (up 3%)
BC Libs 35% (up 2%)
Greens -19% (unchanged)
Conservatives 7% (down 4%)

It must be very very very distressing to the BC Liberals that they are not benefiting from the inevitable collapse of the moribund BC Conservatives...but this is consistent with how previous polls showed that relatively few Conservative supporters had the Liberals as their second choice. Let's face it, its hard to imagine a BC Liberal leader who would be more repulsive to diehard small "c" conservatives than Christy Clark. She is gltzy, elitist, wears furs and is a dyed in the wool federal Liberal. If you are a rightwing populist federal Conservative type in the interior - you take one look at Christy and all you can think is "stinkeroo"!

It gets worse for the Liberals. The Green vote is very soft and if and when their vote declines as people start to vote "strategically" - for every one vote the Libs get, the NDP will get 4 or 5.

Wow NDP and Greens are tied on Vancouver island!

The same thing happened in the federal election (according to our numbers), with about 2 weeks to go. Then the Green vote collapsed as people started voting strategically.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 15, 2017, 11:50:18 AM
Now looks like a bombshell will be dropped in the middle of the campaign that will likely change the dynamic/narrative thereto.

4 days before the TV leadership debate, the U.S. government will release its decision on Canadian softwood lumber duties. That decision will potentially affect the entire dynamic of the 2017 campaign as forestry workers are extant all over BC - from NW BC to NE BC to interior BC all the way down to Van Isle. Will likely spook the electorate and likely turn political narrative entirely into "jobs and the economy":

Quote
U.S. government to release decision on Canadian softwood lumber duties on April 25

Canadian forestry companies say jobs at risk if duties levied

The Canadian Press Posted: Apr 13, 2017 2:28 PM ET

The U.S. Commerce Department said Thursday it will announce on April 25 whether it will impose the first of two duties on Canadian softwood.

A spokesman for the department said any countervailing duties would be applied on imports about a week later. A decision on anti-dumping duties is expected to be released May 5, but could be delayed.

Analyst Paul Quinn of RBC Capital Markets said he anticipates the Americans will impose "shock and awe" duties in the range of 30 to 40 per cent.

"I wouldn't be surprised if the preliminary rates come out really high," he said from Vancouver.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-us-softwood-lumber-duties-1.4069893?cmp=rss&utm_content=bufferfce4e&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on April 15, 2017, 01:05:44 PM
CBC news 14 Ridings to watch:

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/poll-by-poll-14-races-that-could-decide-the-election-1.4066474 (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/poll-by-poll-14-races-that-could-decide-the-election-1.4066474)

The interactive poll by poll maps are kind of neat, but far too many NDP held seats on this list and not enough BC Liberal held seats. It's really hard to call the BC Liberals the front runners at this point when they have trailed in 13 of the last 14 polls, and the last 11 in a row. Actually the last BC Liberal lead was in August of 2016.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 15, 2017, 01:14:25 PM

The same thing happened in the federal election (according to our numbers), with about 2 weeks to go. Then the Green vote collapsed as people started voting strategically.

Kinda ironic that Ekos is now the official internal pollster of the BC Green Party. ;)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on April 15, 2017, 07:26:37 PM
The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on April 15, 2017, 10:29:29 PM
One thing I've found going through that poll is that the BC Conservatives' only age demo above 10% is the young. The NDP lead with all age demos except 65+. Greens and NDP are even on Vancouver Island - vote splitting may allow the Liberals an opportunity there.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on April 15, 2017, 10:32:25 PM
One thing I've found going through that poll is that the BC Conservatives' only age demo above 10% is the young. The NDP lead with all age demos except 65+. Greens and NDP are even on Vancouver Island - vote splitting may allow the Liberals an opportunity there.
The Green vote is not very locked in though the latest Mainstreet Research poll only had 46% Green voters as effectively locked in. I suspect as the campaign goes on the Green party begins to bleed support back to the NDP.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 16, 2017, 08:46:10 AM
Vancouver Island
Southern Vancouver Island
1.Esquimalt-Metchosin, Mitzi Dean, Executive Director Pacific Centre Family Services Association,  Former Child Protection Social Worker (in England), M - Philosophy (research) Certificate - Executive Coaching

2.Langford-Juan de Fuca, John Horgan,57, Management Consulting Firm Principal (IdeaWorks), Premier Dan Miller Chief of Staff, Former Assistant Deputy Minister,  B.A - History, M.A - History, M.L.A 2005-

3.Oak Bay-Gordon Head, Bryce Casavant,33, B.C Ministry of Forests Natural Resource Officer Former B.C Conservation Officer (resigned),  Canadian Armed Forces Veteran, B.Sc-

4.Saanich North and the Islands, Gary Holman,68, Self Employed Resource Economics Consultant, M.A - Economics Capital Region District Director 2002-2008, M.L.A 2013-

5.Saanich South, Lana Popham,48, Organic Farmer (Barking Dog Vineyard), B.A - Geography, M.A - Urban Planning, M.L.A 2009-

6.Victoria-Beacon Hill, Carole James,59,  Carrier Sekani Family Services Director of Child and Family Services, Former B.C Government Director of Child Care Policy, former Social Worker, Greater Victoria School Trustee 1990-2001, M.L.A 2005-

7.Victoria-Swan Lake, Rob Fleming,45, Communications Consulting Firm Consultant, Former Ministry of Advanced Education Research and Policy Analyst, B.A - History, Victoria City Councillor 1999-2005, M.L.A 2005-

Central and Northern Vancouver Island
1.Courtney-Comox, Ronna-Rae Leonard,60, Environmental Consultant, Former Environmental Non Profit Project Manager and Researcher, Diploma(?) - Legal Assistant, Courtney City Councillor 2005-2014, 2011 Federal NDP Nominee, 2015 Federal NDP candidate for nomination

2.Cowichan Valley, Lori Iannidinardo, House of Friendship Society Cowichan Community Kitchens Coordinator, Cowichan Valley Regional District Director 2008-

3.Mid Island-Pacific Rim, Scott Fraser,59, Tofino Harbor Authority Assistant Manager, Bed and Breakfast Owner, 2004 Federal NDP Nominee Tofino Mayor 1996-1999, M.L.A 2005-

4.Nanaimo, Len Krog,63, Lawyer and Firm Owner, President Mid-Island Consumer Co-op,  B.A - History, LLB, M.L.A 1991-1996 (for Parksville-Qualicum), 2005-

5.Nanaimo-North Cowichan, Doug Routley, 55, Former School Custodian and Union Local Representative, Former Specialty Bike Shop and Wholesale Dealership Chain Owner B.A -  Cowichan Valley School Trustee 2003-2005, M.L.A 2005-

6.North Island, Claire Trevena,54, Self Employed Communications Consultant (Start Communicating Strategies),  Former Strategic Communications Firm Managing Director, Former CBC Newsworld International Senior Editor, Former United Nations Public Information Officer, B.A(Hons)-American Studies

7.Parksville-Qualicum, Sue Powell, Child Protection Social Worker, Former  First Vice President B.C Government Social, Information and Health Services Component, Parksville City Councillor 2004-


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 16, 2017, 08:58:45 AM
If the NDP win the election, given the close nature of B.C elections, I predict they'll win around 50 seats.

This is based on them holding every riding they have now (which is not certain) and gaining 15 seats from the Liberals, I predict these ridings (and the NDP candidates) are:

1.Vancouver-Fraserview, George Chow
2.Burnaby North, Janet Routledge
3.Delta North, Ravi Kahlon
4.North Vancouver-Lonsdale, Bowinn Ma
5.Surrey-Fleetwood, Jagrup Brar
6.Surrey-Guildford, Garry Begg
7.Surrey-Panorama, Jinny Sims
8.Maple Ridge-Mission, Bob D'Eith
9.Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Lisa Beare
10.Boundary-Similkameen, Coleen Ross
11.Penticton, Tarik Sayeed
12.Fraser-Nicola, Harry Lali
13.Cariboo-Chilcotin, Sally Watson
14.Cariboo North, Scott Elliott
15.Courtney-Comox, Ronna-Rae Leonard

Predicted NDP cabinet  (Remember, "This is only an exhibition, this is not a competition, no wagering") David Letterman (at a time when he was funny)
1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, John Horgan
2.Finance, Bruce Ralston
3.Economics Development and Trade, Shane Simpson
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Sally Watson
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship/Government House Leader, Mike Farnworth
6.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Adrian Dix
7.Natural Resources and Forestry/Rural Affairs, Katrine Conroy
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Lana Popham
9.Environment/Northern Affairs, Doug Donaldson
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Michelle Mungall
11.Technology, Innovation and Citizen Services, Tarik Sayeed
12.Human Resources and Housing, Harry Bains
13.Children and Family Development, Melanie Mark
14.Education/Deputy Premier, Carole James
15.Advanced Education and Training, Jennifer Rice
16.Health/Seniors, Judy Darcy
17.Municipal Affairs/Status of Women, Selina Robinson
18.Aboriginal Relations, Len Krog
19.Justice and Public Safety, David Eby

Speaker, Raj Chouhan
Deputy Speaker, Claire Trevena

Chief Government Whip, Rob Fleming
Caucus Chair, Mable Elmore


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 16, 2017, 09:16:25 AM
I think the NDP is more likely to win Kamloops North than either of the Cariboo seats


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 16, 2017, 09:19:53 AM
I think the NDP is more likely to win Kamloops North than either of the Cariboo seats

Kamloops seems to be steadily trending away from the NDP and from being the swing riding that always goes with the winner.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 16, 2017, 09:22:51 AM
The NDP came closer in Kamloops North last time than they did in Cariboo-Chilcotin and the popular Liberal incumbent is quitting


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 16, 2017, 12:51:07 PM
The NDP came closer in Kamloops North last time than they did in Cariboo-Chilcotin and the popular Liberal incumbent is quitting

Kamloops-North Thompson (2009 result):

BC Lib: 47%
BC NDP: 45%
BC Green:  7%

Kamloops-North Thompson (2013 result:)

BC Lib: 52.1%
BC NDP: 39.1%
BC Con: 7%

In 2013, major shift away from BC NDP throughout interior BC as a result of "Kinder Morgan Surprise" as a symbol of BC NDP anti-resource development stance.

Kamloops-North Thompson (2017 candidates)

BC Lib: Peter Milobar (Kamloops mayor who received 78.1% in November, 2014 muni election)
BC NDP: Barb Nederpal: (public sector unionist and prez of Kamloops & District Labour Council)
BC Green: Dan Hines

Aside from provincial issues, a major over-riding local Kamloops issue is the proposed Ajax Mine in the southern edge of city limits. While located in neighbouring Kamloops-South Thompson, still a city issue. A well-organized contingent of Kamloops residents oppose the proposed Ajax Mine -

http://www.stopajaxmine.ca/home
https://www.facebook.com/stopajaxmine

As a matter of fact, back in 2012, the USW pulled out of the Kamloops and District Labour Council over the KDLC's opposition to the proposed Ajax Mine:

http://www.kamloopsnews.ca/news/city-region/steelworkers-pull-out-of-labour-council-over-ajax-opposition-1.1243531

The BC Libs tacitly endorse the proposed Ajax Mine subject to environmental assessment completion.  No one really knows where the 2 local BC NDP candidates stand (all over the map), while the 2 BC Green candidates (including Kamloops councillor Donovan Cavers) oppose the proposed Ajax Mine.

BTW, the BC Greens are heavily targeting the 2 Kamloops ridings and Andrew Weaver has been there a few times already. Van Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer/Global BC political affairs reporter Keith Baldrey were on Kamloops radio station CHNL a few weeks back discussing provincial political scene. Both brought up that they are hearing rumblings that the BC Greens may actually finish 2nd in both Kamloops seats. I will believe it when I see it.

Finally, Kamloops-North Thompson can be considered BC's "bellwether riding". Since 1903, no political party has formed BC gov't without winning in Kamloops.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on April 16, 2017, 04:25:03 PM
BTW, the BC Greens are heavily targeting the 2 Kamloops ridings and Andrew Weaver has been there a few times already. Van Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer/Global BC political affairs reporter Keith Baldrey were on Kamloops radio station CHNL a few weeks back discussing provincial political scene. Both brought up that they are hearing rumblings that the BC Greens may actually finish 2nd in both Kamloops seats. I will believe it when I see it.

There ought to be a drinking game for each time Lotuslander namedrops Keith Baldrey.

Anyway, any such breakthrough on the WeaverGreens' part will depend on them hitting a certain "1993 Preston Manning Reform Populist" nerve (i.e. that which cannibalized from the federal NDP more than PCs).  Maybe that's why Lotuslander's so hyped up over them...


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 18, 2017, 08:28:32 AM
Another Mainstreet Research poll. IVR/robo pollster. I don't put much/if any weight on these in BC, but here are decided results:

BC NDP: 39%
BC Lib: 37%
BC Green: 20%
BC Con: 3%

Greens lead on Van Isle with 38%.

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-greens-gain-writs-dropped/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 18, 2017, 10:24:33 AM
At least all the polls finally have the moribund BC Conservatives in low single digits where they belong...it was a bit of a distraction having that "phantom vote" rattling around


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 18, 2017, 10:28:53 AM
The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 18, 2017, 10:34:12 AM

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

In my experience, if you think response rates to IVR surveys are low among the general public...its nothing compared to how low those response rates are among "New Canadians" (i.e. South Asians, Chinese etc...)...and the people from those ethnic communities who do take part in surveys are usually third generation people who are totally assimilated.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 18, 2017, 10:36:28 AM

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

In my experience, if you think response rates to IVR surveys are low among the general public...its nothing compared to how low those response rates are among "New Canadians" (i.e. South Asians, Chinese etc...)...and the people from those ethnic communities who do take part in surveys are usually third generation people who are totally assimilated.

Yes, I'm well aware. See Mainstreet's bombing of the Scarborough-Rouge River by-election, even while having Chinese and Tamil versions of their IVR survey available.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 18, 2017, 02:25:34 PM
The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Zanas on April 18, 2017, 03:30:38 PM
The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.
In case of a hung assembly depending on the Greens, would they be more likely to strike a deal with the NDP or the Liberals ? Has it been discussed as a possibility in the campaign ?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on April 18, 2017, 03:53:34 PM
The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.
In case of a hung assembly depending on the Greens, would they be more likely to strike a deal with the NDP or the Liberals ? Has it been discussed as a possibility in the campaign ?

Greens are still the least committed to vote Green and overwhelmingly favour the NDP as their second choice; But this is good polling numbers from them to start, can it last? The NDP and Liberals are about stable (even on VanIsland the NDP only dropped 1 point), the green vote (in this poll) looks to be bumped up by the crash of the Conservatives?

BCLiberals seem to be the most eager for Greens to win, but policy wise would the Greens no favour the NDP?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 18, 2017, 05:37:08 PM
The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.

I guess social democracy and neoliberalism are all the same to you?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 18, 2017, 08:30:50 PM
The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

Very interesting. Usually this sort of stuff is "whites somewhat right, everyone else left", so to see all the different religious and ethnic divides is really neat.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 19, 2017, 09:51:54 AM
The Mainstreet poll has fairly detailed demographic breakdowns, thanks to its big sample size.

http://wpmedia.vancouversun.com/2017/04/mainstreet-elxn-poll-ethnicity-religion.png

The NDP leads with Caucasians and Filipinos, while the Liberals lead with Chinese, South Asians, Koreans and others.

Very interesting. Usually this sort of stuff is "whites somewhat right, everyone else left".

Not the case in Canada at all. Visible minorities tend to vote Liberal (and increasingly Conservative). Since Canada is so overwhelmingly White, Whites tend to be close to the mean, but are less likely to vote Liberal, and more-so for the NDP & Conservatives.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 21, 2017, 11:10:00 PM
Well, yesterday morning was the first radio debate between the 3 BC leaders (which was also live-streamed) and here is the take from Global BC Newshour at 6 pm yesterday:

https://www.facebook.com/GlobalBC/videos/10155153659162808/?pnref=story



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Holmes on April 22, 2017, 01:21:10 AM
The greens are surging across the province. Would love for them to prevent a majority for whoever gets reelected. We need a shakeup.
In case of a hung assembly depending on the Greens, would they be more likely to strike a deal with the NDP or the Liberals ? Has it been discussed as a possibility in the campaign ?

If they take their cues from their federal counterpart, they'll crawl right up the Libs' asses.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Cynthia on April 22, 2017, 11:30:13 PM

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

In my experience, if you think response rates to IVR surveys are low among the general public...its nothing compared to how low those response rates are among "New Canadians" (i.e. South Asians, Chinese etc...)...and the people from those ethnic communities who do take part in surveys are usually third generation people who are totally assimilated.

I somewhat don't concur. I'm "first-generation" (but I was here since 6) and I answer polls..


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on April 24, 2017, 09:45:59 AM

Wow, those are bad numbers for the NDP among South Asians. More hemorrhaging expected in the Surrey seats? Or perhaps this is just small sample size (more likely).

In my experience, if you think response rates to IVR surveys are low among the general public...its nothing compared to how low those response rates are among "New Canadians" (i.e. South Asians, Chinese etc...)...and the people from those ethnic communities who do take part in surveys are usually third generation people who are totally assimilated.

I somewhat don't concur. I'm "first-generation" (but I was here since 6) and I answer polls..

While technically first generation, I don't think it really counts. If you immigrate in early childhood, you're going to be more similar to a 2nd generation person.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 24, 2017, 09:30:16 PM
It's been a while since we have had any polling in BC but apparently Mainstreet will have a release tomorrow. I'll bet that after Horgan did so well in demolishing Christy Clark in the radio leaders debate we may start to see a bigger NDP lead


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 24, 2017, 11:31:41 PM
Another new poll out by Justason Market Intelligence - opt-in online panel methodology:

BC NDP: 39%
BC Liberal: 36%
BC Green: 19%
Other: 5%

http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=5074

To put matters into context, at this point in the 2013 BC election campaign, Justason Market Intelligence also had an opt-in online panel poll showing the BC NDP with a 22% lead:

Quote
New Poll Gives Dix 'Insurmountable' 22-Point Lead

https://thetyee.ca/News/2013/04/29/NDP-22-Point-Lead/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 25, 2017, 06:21:56 AM
The latest JMI poll uses a different online methodology than in 2013. This time it's based on google analytics based panel. Not saying it's better or worse than in 2013 just that it's different. But they were also in field April 18-20 meaning they would not be capturing the impact of the radio debate last week where Horgan crushed Clark


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 25, 2017, 07:47:11 AM
New Mainstreet Research poll is out:

BC NDP: 44%
BC Lib: 34%
BC Green: 22%

Gotta love IVR/robo polls.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 25, 2017, 08:11:58 AM
Comparing apples to apples these polls by Mainstreet show a clear trend. It has to be particularly distressing to the BC Liberals that Green voters who have a second choice pick the NDP over the Liberals by a 74 to 7 margin. That means that if the Green vote declines at all the NDP picks up TEN votes for every one that goes to the BC Liberals


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 25, 2017, 12:57:21 PM
Mainstreet Research has a pretty good track record (unlike, say, Forum) but I find the sub-samples a bit hard to believe.  

For the NDP to be up over the Liberals 41-27% in Greater Vancouver (this does not include the 20% they find undecided) makes no sense to me given the unpopularity of the NDP in such places as the Eastern Fraser Valley (though the NDP is a little more popular in Chilliwack), Richmond and most of the North Shore.

As far as I'm concerned, for that to be accurate, the NDP would have to be up by 20% or so in Burnaby.

Apparently, the Mainstreet polling analysts predicted a minority NDP government on the basis of this poll, with NDP gains in Greater Vancouver offset by losses on Vancouver Island.  However, this poll also shows a tie in 'rest of province' (i.e The Interior) which if that was the case suggests the NDP could very well win such ridings as the two Kamloops ridings and Kootenay East.

If the NDP does win by 10%, I find it hard to believe they wouldn't win a majority government.

As I wrote a while back, this election was looking more and more to me like the situation in 1972, where after losing an election they were expected to win in 1969, nobody ever thought the NDP could ever win an election in British Columbia and this made those afraid of the 'socialist hordes' complacent in 1972.

So, although there is polling for this election, given what happened with the polling in 2013, the 'Anti NDP' coalition also appears to have gotten somewhat complacent this time around (I realize the advertising from the 'concerned groups' and the amount of donations to the B.C Liberals don't suggest that, but on the other hand, the Liberals themselves have once again put Christy Clark at the forefront of their campaign and are basically running the a repeat of 2013, even though Premier Clark is now one of the most unpopular political leaders in Canada.)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 25, 2017, 02:17:40 PM
Yeah, if the NDP wins the popular vote by 10 points, i would say that an NDP majority is guaranteed and likely a super-majority. In 1972 the NDP won the popular vote 39% to 29% and in seats they took 38 to 10 for the Socreds. In 1991 the NDP took 41% and the BC Liberals 33%...in seats that translated into NDP 55 and Libs 17!

As for those numbers for the Lower Mainland, i would like to know what the geographical definition of Greater vancouver is? Would Fraser Valley places like Chilliwack and Abbotsford even be considered Greater Vancouver or would they be lumped into the Interior?

One thing to keep in mind is how some of these places rapidly changing. Not too long ago Abbotsford was considered Bible Belt and ultra conservative...but in recent years it has been bursting at the seems with young lower middle class families fleeing the high cost of housing in Vancouver...and parts oif Abbotsford are getting to be as heavily South Asian as parts of Surrey. it might not happen this election but I would be surprised if the NDP starts to become competitive in one of those seats soon.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on April 25, 2017, 08:32:50 PM
Yeah, if the NDP wins the popular vote by 10 points, i would say that an NDP majority is guaranteed and likely a super-majority. In 1972 the NDP won the popular vote 39% to 29% and in seats they took 38 to 10 for the Socreds. In 1991 the NDP took 41% and the BC Liberals 33%...in seats that translated into NDP 55 and Libs 17!

An interesting wrinkle in this pattern is that the Greens don't really fit the mould of "right wing vote splitter" that helped the NDP form government. I mean obviously if they win by ten points they should have a solid majority, but the shape of said government would look different from past NDP governments I'd imagine.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on April 25, 2017, 09:12:13 PM
Yeah, if the NDP wins the popular vote by 10 points, i would say that an NDP majority is guaranteed and likely a super-majority. In 1972 the NDP won the popular vote 39% to 29% and in seats they took 38 to 10 for the Socreds. In 1991 the NDP took 41% and the BC Liberals 33%...in seats that translated into NDP 55 and Libs 17!

As for those numbers for the Lower Mainland, i would like to know what the geographical definition of Greater vancouver is? Would Fraser Valley places like Chilliwack and Abbotsford even be considered Greater Vancouver or would they be lumped into the Interior?

One thing to keep in mind is how some of these places rapidly changing. Not too long ago Abbotsford was considered Bible Belt and ultra conservative...but in recent years it has been bursting at the seems with young lower middle class families fleeing the high cost of housing in Vancouver...and parts oif Abbotsford are getting to be as heavily South Asian as parts of Surrey. it might not happen this election but I would be surprised if the NDP starts to become competitive in one of those seats soon.

I'm pretty sure their dividing line is Hope.  The Mainstreet Research site doesn't say so, but that is usually the geographic division.  If the NDP is tied with the Liberals in 'rest of province' and the rest of the province includes Chilliwack and Abbotsford, it's almost certain the NDP would win ridings in Kamloops, East Kootenay, The Cariboo and even Prince George. (Along with Penticton, Boundary-Similkameen and Fraser-Nicola)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 26, 2017, 12:58:23 AM
Entertaining that some folk here take this Mainstreet Research poll with more than a grain of salt. A key metric/number buried therein should jump out as a "RED FLAG". Right away. Analytically. But I will let others attempt to figure it out. Doubtful though. ;)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 26, 2017, 08:13:11 AM
Check out this hard hitting ad by the BC NDP. It takes a sledge hammer to the BC Liberals and smashes them into a million pieces. It will be particularly effective with blue collar workers in the interior

https://www.facebook.com/bcndp/videos/10150864124154978/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on April 27, 2017, 01:19:57 AM
Check out this hard hitting ad by the BC NDP. It takes a sledge hammer to the BC Liberals and smashes them into a million pieces. It will be particularly effective with blue collar workers in the interior

https://www.facebook.com/bcndp/videos/10150864124154978/

Masterful ad! In this populist age of politics talking about Christy Clark's big donors is a fantastic argument. There's no way she can defend it.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 29, 2017, 02:46:20 AM
I think the NDP is more likely to win Kamloops North than either of the Cariboo seats

Interestingly enough, the first riding poll of the campaign is Kamloops-North Thompson by JMI, which was commissioned by the Kamloops Voters Society. IVR methodology and n = 239 with 2013 changes in brackets:

BC Lib: 47% (-5%)
BC NDP: 31% (-8%)
BC Green: 15% (+15%)
Communist: 8% (+8%)

https://armchairmayor.ca/2017/04/28/election-poll-shows-milobar-ahead-doctor-shortage-biggest-issue/

Why high Communist intention? Likely due to IVR methodology & smaller sample size. Still surprised BC Libs even leading with IVR here.

PS. Kamloops (now Kamloops-North Thompson) is BC's bellwether riding. Since 1903, whoever wins this seat wins gov't.

PPS. Also note that this "poll" was conducted pre-TV leaders debate.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on April 29, 2017, 05:28:45 AM
Sounds to me like you're cherrypicking a mediocre-quality poll in order to reinforce your vested anti-IVR/anti-NDP interests.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 29, 2017, 07:45:57 AM
Sigh. IVR in BC has a heavy NDP bent/bias. Anyone who diligently follows BC politics is fully cognizant of same. No question about that.

To wit, not only 2013 BC provincial election polls but 2015 federal riding polls in BC as well. It almost seemed IVR methodology was from another planet.

Frankly, I also suspect that IVR pollsters pumped out numerous polls for specific ridings until they obtained their desired result (or their clients) -  akin to IVR riding polls showing fed Con leads in downtown Toronto and Ottawa, fed NDP leads in Leeds-Grenville, and fed Lib leads in all northern Ontario ridings.

Just not a plausible scenario. Period.

In that vein, some 2015 BC fed riding polls (with actual results in brackets)

1. Cariboo-Prince George (Environics)

NDP: 36% (25.8%)
Con: 30% (36.6%)
Lib: 29% (31.5%)
Green: 5% (3.5%)

2. Coquitlam-Port Coquitlam (Environics)

NDP: 34% (27.3%)
Con: 31% (32%)
Lib: 29% (35.3%)
Green: 6% (3.8%)

3. North Okanagan-Shuswap: (Environics)

NDP: 37% (25.6%)
Con: 33% (39.3%)
Lib: 22% (30%)
Green: 8% (5.2%)

4. Pitt Meadows-Maple Ridge: (Environics)

NDP: 41% (29.6%)
Con: 35% (31.4%)
Lib: 19% (33.9%)
Green: 6% (4%)

And so many more examples as well. Again, corroborating/confirming that IVR has a heavy NDP bias in BC akin to opt-in online panel polls. Caveat emptor.

As for those IVR polls by Mainstreet Research? Well, an April, 2017 press release from MRIA - the Canadian governing body of polling companies - confirming that Mainstreet Research has been suspended from the organization:

Quote
The Adjudication Panel found that Mainstreet Research violated
1. Article 1 (Basic Principles)
2. Article 2 (Honesty)
3. Article 3 (Professional Responsibility) and
4. Article 11 (Publishing Findings)

https://mria-arim.ca/sites/default/uploads/files/Mainstreet%20Research%20Sanction%20Posting.pdf

All cheap polling junk. Rinse, spit, and repeat.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on April 29, 2017, 01:09:43 PM
Yes, we know your beef about IVR; you've been saying it a zillion times as if that's the *only* thing that matters in this election.  My cherrypicking/mediocre poll comment was not about IVR in general; it was about JMI's Kamloops poll in particular.  Look; if we're dealing with an 8% Communist figure, we're not even talking about a poll that operates on an Environics/Mainstreet level.  (And please, don't reopen the "what about the BC Cons?" issue.)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on April 30, 2017, 03:18:05 PM
New poll by JMI - opt-in online panel. Good that they posted an appropriate caveat therein:

Quote
With our online methodology possibly over-representing support for left-leaning parties, as pollsters found in 2013 election predictions, the BC Liberals may be comfortable with their position given the efficiency and distribution of their vote.

BC Lib: 38% (+2%)
BC NDP: 37% (-2%)
BC Green: 21% (+2%)
Orther: 4% (-1%)

http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=5122


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on April 30, 2017, 05:28:05 PM
One thing to bear in mind is that polling errors and methodological biases from one election rarely carry over into the next. Polling companies refine their methodologies and factors change. There is a hypothesis that in the 2013 BC election the online polls overestimated NDP support and underestimated Liberal support because a ton of people joined online panels during the anti-HST campaign and they were mostly people who were angry at the government...

However, in the 2009 BC election it was a very different story. In that election all the phone based polls forecast a BC Liberal landslide with a lead of 8 to 11 points over the NDP. Only the final online poll by Angus Reid had it close at 44-42...and the results were 45-42. So in 2009, the one online poll was almost dead-on while all the phone polls overestimated the Liberals and underestimated the NDP.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Columbia_general_election,_2009#Opinion_polls

What will happen this time - only time will tell.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 01, 2017, 12:48:15 AM
During the 2009 BC election, Mustel (CATI) was in the field for one week from April 29 to May 6. Election was May 12, 2009. The TV debate was on May 3, 2009. Moreover, then BC NDP leader Carole James "won" the 2009 TV leaders debate. Even then, both Mustel's CATI numbers as well as Ipsos (then CATI) numbers were still within their margin of error at extremities.

Angus Reid (opt-in online) was a newcomer to the BC political scene both as a pollster as well as its new methodology - first opinion poll was in late, 2008. Prima facie, their panels  were more in tune with the electorate wayyy back then. Since then, it has been obvious that online panels have had relatively major recruiting problems - folk dropping out/new folk coming in skewing their results.

2013 election opt-in online pollsters Angus Reid & Ipsos had final results holding a BC NDP lead at 9% and 8% respectively. OTOH, the BC Libs won by ~4% margin - a 12% to 13% reversal.

During the 2014 Ontario provincial election, the Toronto Star retained a pollster to test the 3 different methodologies (CATI, IVR, opt-in online panel) v. the actual ON election result. Their opt-in online methodology finding:

Quote
“Online, for some reason, tends to overestimate the NDP vote. It must be a recruiting issue with these panels. We saw that in the (2013) B.C. election as well."

https://www.thestar.com/news/queenspark/2014/06/15/polling_the_electorate_three_different_ways_with_differing_results.html


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 01, 2017, 08:05:00 AM
Speak of the devil. Another new opt-in online panel poll by Ipsos:

BC Lib: 43% (+4)
BC NDP: 41% (-3)
BC Green: 14% (+2)

Green numbers are low with Ipsos.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 01, 2017, 09:37:28 AM
Speak of the devil. Another new opt-in online panel poll by Ipsos:

BC Lib: 43% (+4)
BC NDP: 41% (-3)
BC Green: 14% (+2)

Green numbers are low with Ipsos.
Care to link that to me, because I can't find that poll anywhere.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 01, 2017, 09:46:01 AM
Here. http://www.cknw.com/2017/05/01/exclusive-poll-shows-bc-liberals-edging-slight-lead-after-televised-debate/?sc_ref=twitter


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 01, 2017, 09:56:23 AM
Here. http://www.cknw.com/2017/05/01/exclusive-poll-shows-bc-liberals-edging-slight-lead-after-televised-debate/?sc_ref=twitter
Thanks.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 01, 2017, 01:52:42 PM
I notice something interesting in the crosstabs of the Ipsos poll - they asked people who they voted for in the 2013 election:

54% say they voted Liberal (Libs actually took 44% in 2013)
37% say they voted NDP (NDP actually took 40% in 2013)
8% say they voted Green (same as 2013)
no numbers on reported past vote for BC Conservatives/Other.

So contrary to the theory that this online panel might over-represent New Democrats - if we look at reported past vote - the sample is actually wayyy more Liberal than it ought to be. I'm not questioning the overall findings, just pointing this out for people to interpret as they wish


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 01, 2017, 05:32:50 PM
I notice something interesting in the crosstabs of the Ipsos poll - they asked people who they voted for in the 2013 election:

54% say they voted Liberal (Libs actually took 44% in 2013)
37% say they voted NDP (NDP actually took 40% in 2013)
8% say they voted Green (same as 2013)
no numbers on reported past vote for BC Conservatives/Other.

So contrary to the theory that this online panel might over-represent New Democrats - if we look at reported past vote - the sample is actually wayyy more Liberal than it ought to be. I'm not questioning the overall findings, just pointing this out for people to interpret as they wish

This could be nothing more than the well known psychological factor that many people can't remember how they voted in the previous election, and so say they voted for the winning party.

It's related to but not quite the same to the polling during the 1980s showing up to 20 million people claimed to be one of the 600,000 or so who attended Woodstock.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 01, 2017, 06:02:21 PM
I notice something interesting in the crosstabs of the Ipsos poll - they asked people who they voted for in the 2013 election:

54% say they voted Liberal (Libs actually took 44% in 2013)
37% say they voted NDP (NDP actually took 40% in 2013)
8% say they voted Green (same as 2013)
no numbers on reported past vote for BC Conservatives/Other.

So contrary to the theory that this online panel might over-represent New Democrats - if we look at reported past vote - the sample is actually wayyy more Liberal than it ought to be. I'm not questioning the overall findings, just pointing this out for people to interpret as they wish

Well, I remember how their panel over-represented the PCs in our last provincial election. So, take their polls with a grain of salt.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 02, 2017, 09:17:11 AM
The latest poll from Forum is pretty whacky

BC NDP  - 37%
Bc Liberals - 29%
BC Greens - 24%
BC Cons - 7% (says something about how incompetent and unprofessional Forum is that they would still be prompting for a party that is only running 10 candidates)
Other - 3%

Its very weird that Ipsos has the Greens at 14% and Forum at 24% - that is a huge gap even by BC polling standards.

From a seat point of view its actually not as good as it seems for the Greens. The only place where they stand to actually win any seats is on Vancouver Island and there the NDP leads with 39% with the Greens and Liberals at 28% and 27% respectively. A vote split like that would likely mean the Greens adding Saanich North and possibly nothing else!

Forum's seat projection model is also kinda bizarre - they say this popular vote split would mean NDP 47 seats, BC Libs 34 seats, Greens 4 seats and 2 "other".   where pray tell is there is a single solitary "Other" candidate with any chance at all of winning in BC??? Also, if (and very big IF), the NDP actually beat the Liberals by a 37-29 margin, I suspect the Liberals would do far worse than 34 seats. In 2013 the Libs took 44% of the popular vote. If that dropped to 29% that would mean a 15 point drop...that would mean A LOT of losses in terms of seats.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2717/bc-final-week/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 02, 2017, 09:49:50 AM
The latest poll from Forum is pretty whacky

BC NDP  - 37%
Bc Liberals - 29%
BC Greens - 24%
BC Cons - 7% (says something about how incompetent and unprofessional Forum is that they would still be prompting for a party that is only running 10 candidates)
Other - 3%

Its very weird that Ipsos has the Greens at 14% and Forum at 24% - that is a huge gap even by BC polling standards.

From a seat point of view its actually not as good as it seems for the Greens. The only place where they stand to actually win any seats is on Vancouver Island and there the NDP leads with 39% with the Greens and Liberals at 28% and 27% respectively. A vote split like that would likely mean the Greens adding Saanich North and possibly nothing else!

Forum's seat projection model is also kinda bizarre - they say this popular vote split would mean NDP 47 seats, BC Libs 34 seats, Greens 4 seats and 2 "other".   where pray tell is there is a single solitary "Other" candidate with any chance at all of winning in BC??? Also, if (and very big IF), the NDP actually beat the Liberals by a 37-29 margin, I suspect the Liberals would do far worse than 34 seats. In 2013 the Libs took 44% of the popular vote. If that dropped to 29% that would mean a 15 point drop...that would mean A LOT of losses in terms of seats.

http://poll.forumresearch.com/post/2717/bc-final-week/

And if you look at their regional crosstabs, they only polled 78 people in the "Interior North" which I take to be everything outside the Lower Mainland and Vancouver Island, as those are the other 2 groups.  Now I don't know if they weighted by region or not, but either way they have oversampled the lower mainland and Vancouver Island which would boost the NDP numbers province wide, or if they did weight by region, they are weighting up this dubious sample of 78 people, of which the NDP has a lead of 6 points, but in reality is probably tied or trailing.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 02, 2017, 09:59:02 AM
I've noticed that in each Forum poll they have had a strangely small interior sub-sample. I don't understand why they would do that since its not as if there is anything particularly difficult about IVR polling interior BC!

Still even if we ignore the "interior issue"...if the NDP actually carried the Lower Mainland by 6 points and carried Vancouver Island by 11 points - it would be a blow-out in terms of seats in those regions.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 02, 2017, 10:14:15 AM
PS: Some people (who shall remain nameless), have suggested that IVR polls systematically overestimate NDP support. I find no evidence of that. In fact in the last Ontario election the reverse happened. The final Ekos poll had the NDP at 19% and the final Forum had them at 20%...in fact they got 24%!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_general_election,_2014#Opinion_polls


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 02, 2017, 11:55:02 AM
For IVR, it depends on if cell sample is included, I think. No cell sample is going to unrepresented NDP support.

Of course, I don't know what our dear friend Lo'Ler is rambling on about these days, I have him on ignore.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 02, 2017, 01:07:12 PM

Of course, I don't know what our dear friend Lo'Ler is rambling on about these days, I have him on ignore.

That's probably good for your mental health :-)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 02, 2017, 05:39:24 PM
Whether good news or bad news, Forum Polls are always junk polls.  Best to ignore them.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 03, 2017, 07:35:58 AM
Smyth: Grits are solid in bellwether Kamloops.  (http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-horgan-is-battling-the-liberals-and-history-in-bellwether-kamloops)

Mainstreet: (http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-make-gains-ndp-still-leads/) 42% (-2), 37% (+3), 21% (-1).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 03, 2017, 09:49:40 AM

Mainstreet: (http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/liberals-make-gains-ndp-still-leads/) 42% (-2), 37% (+3), 21% (-1).

This feels about right...I think the previous Mainstreet poll that gave the NDP a 10 point lead was likely an outlier and this marks a reversion to the mean. A few things stand out to me in this poll though:

Regionally, looks like BC is moving towards a serious urban-rural split with the NDP doing really well in the Lower Mainland, consolidating their lead on Vancouver Island (with a 10 point lead over the Greens, the Greens will likely be stuck with just 1 or 2 seats), but getting crushed in the interior.

The NDP vote is now the most solid, while Greens vote is softening with about 40% of Greens saying they could still change their minds...If the Green vote drops, the NDP gets 3.5 votes for everyone 1 that goes to the Liberals.

A lot can and likely will happen in the coming week and i expect an exceedingly close election


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 03, 2017, 01:31:54 PM
Not a poll on voting intentions, but Insights west asked voters questions about whether the three leaders held certain qualities as well as asking whether voters approved of the job the BC government is doing in certain areas.

http://www.insightswest.com/news/horgan-connecting-with-british-columbians-but-clark-ahead-on-economy/ (http://www.insightswest.com/news/horgan-connecting-with-british-columbians-but-clark-ahead-on-economy/)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 03, 2017, 08:41:44 PM
Weaver not a Horgan fan. (http://globalnews.ca/news/3424752/b-c-election-andrew-weaver-says-he-would-work-with-clark-before-horgan/)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 03, 2017, 08:49:41 PM
Weaver says he'd prefer working with Clark in a minority situation. (http://globalnews.ca/news/3424752/b-c-election-andrew-weaver-says-he-would-work-with-clark-before-horgan/)

I saw the 6 pm Global BC newscast and that is not what I inferred from his statements. In any event, Weaver's characterization of Horgan was just brutal:

Quote
“[John Horgan] has exploded on me multiple times. I want to work with him, I really do, and I’ve tried and I’ve continued to try but he’s got to control his temper… he doesn’t bring people to want to work with him,” Weaver explained in a one-on-one interview with Global BC’s Legislative Bureau Chief Keith Baldrey.

“Whereas the premier [Christy Clark], you can have a respectful disagreement in a one-on-one conversation and it’s not personal.”

Edited to Add: Headline on story is also obviously wrong. Suspect it will be modified. Weaver also stated "I'm not going to pick one" in terms of potential minority gov't support.

Further Edit: Headline now changed to "B.C. Election: Andrew Weaver says ‘neither Liberals nor NDP can be trusted with majority government’.

Quote
Editor’s note: A previous version of this story said Green Leader Andrew Weaver would rather work with BC Liberal Leader Christy Clark over BC NDP Leader John Horgan. That information was incorrect. Weaver refused to say which leader he’d prefer to work with. The story has been updated to reflect the correction. Watch the full interview in its entirety above.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 03, 2017, 08:50:47 PM
Weaver says he'd prefer working with Clark in a minority situation. (http://globalnews.ca/news/3424752/b-c-election-andrew-weaver-says-he-would-work-with-clark-before-horgan/)

Well, the NDP can only win when there's a vote split on the right ;) :D


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 03, 2017, 08:53:01 PM
Fixed it. But I suspect there won't be a minority.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: the506 on May 03, 2017, 09:38:51 PM
Like I said on twitter - this is a 140 character world and the damage may already be done.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 03, 2017, 11:31:18 PM
Weaver could have devoted his time to only discussing policies and issues and made it clear that in a hypothetical minority situation he would cooperate with whatever party was closest to him on the issues, instead he recited BC Liberal talking points about John Horgan's personality. That's what is known as "going off message"


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 04, 2017, 07:38:03 AM
Angus Reid: (http://angusreid.org/bc-election-campaign-analysis/) 41/40/15.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 04, 2017, 10:43:02 AM
Its interesting that the latest online surveys by Angus Reid and Ipsos have the Greens at a very disappointing 14-15%...while the latest IVR polls by Forum and Mainstreet have them in the low 20s... Usually if anything online polls tend to overestimate support for 3rd parties compared to IVR.

Any theory as to what is going on here?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 04, 2017, 06:14:37 PM
Innovative Research likes Clark's chances. (http://innovativeresearch.ca/bc-liberals-have-edge-but-electorate-remains-volatile/?utm_content=53748365&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 04, 2017, 07:32:17 PM
Innovative Research likes Clark's chances. (http://innovativeresearch.ca/bc-liberals-have-edge-but-electorate-remains-volatile/?utm_content=53748365&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter)

I've been waiting for Innovative Research to produce a CATI poll - gold standard in BC polling. Decided results:

BC Lib: 38%
BC NDP: 33%
BC Green: 20.3%
BC Con: 6.3%
Other: 2.5%

They also produced opt-in online panel methodology favouring Libs but meh.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 04, 2017, 07:36:48 PM
Apparently Innovative is not so innovative if they are prompting for the non-existent BC Conservatives!


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 04, 2017, 08:23:01 PM
Firstly, Innovative Research is a reputable polling firm (around for ~20 years) unlike other pollsters out there. As for their CATI voting intention question based upon data tables? Unprompted as follows:

Quote
If a PROVINCIAL election were held today, which party would you vote for?

As for the 6.2% BC Con vote (unprompted), BC Lib 2013 campaign internals (CATI daily tracking polls) found that:

1. 1/3 had brand confusion with fed gov't;
2. 1/3 parked vote with BC Cons until realized that would result in NDP win and then vote BC Lib at end of day;
3. 1/3 actual BC Con voters;


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 05, 2017, 12:20:32 PM
Justason Market Intelligence May 4th

BC Liberals 39% (+1)
NDP 34% (-3)
Green 23% (+2)
Other 4% (-)

http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=5183 (http://www.justasonmi.com/?p=5183)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 05, 2017, 03:29:36 PM
I am seeing a big range between pollsters. Is there a reason for this?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 05, 2017, 11:28:57 PM
I am seeing a big range between pollsters. Is there a reason for this?

No one knows how to poll BC. What this all means is we're probably heading for a repeat of the last three elections in which the Liberals win by 3-5%.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Holmes on May 05, 2017, 11:51:01 PM
Is the NDP here doing the most NDP thing ever by squandering their healthy lead as the election approaches?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 06, 2017, 04:27:18 AM
Is the NDP here doing the most NDP thing ever by squandering their healthy lead as the election approaches?

The B.C NDP likely never had a healthy lead.  Just one outlier poll that gave the NDP a 10% lead.

In any other province, I think a hopeless Premier like Christy Clark would be thrown out with barely a better result than the NDP here received in 2001.   

Only in British Columbia can the B.C Liberals get reelected.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 06, 2017, 06:18:57 AM
I am seeing a big range between pollsters. Is there a reason for this?

No one knows how to poll BC. What this all means is we're probably heading for a repeat of the last three elections in which the Liberals win by 3-5%.

But why does no one know how to poll BC? High level of immigrants?

Is the NDP here doing the most NDP thing ever by squandering their healthy lead as the election approaches?

The B.C NDP likely never had a healthy lead.  Just one outlier poll that gave the NDP a 10% lead.

In any other province, I think a hopeless Premier like Christy Clark would be thrown out with barely a better result than the NDP here received in 2001.   

Only in British Columbia can the B.C Liberals get reelected.

BC reminds me of what Stephen Harper was trying to set up federally. The NDP are too left wing for too many people, and without a Trudeau style liberal party to vote for, they are forced to hold their nose for the BC Liberals/Socreds.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 06, 2017, 07:42:18 AM
Palmer predicts a reduced Grit majority. (http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-expect-premier-hard-hat-to-triumph-tuesday-with-reduced-majority)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 06, 2017, 10:22:41 AM
I am seeing a big range between pollsters. Is there a reason for this?

No one knows how to poll BC. What this all means is we're probably heading for a repeat of the last three elections in which the Liberals win by 3-5%.

But why does no one know how to poll BC? High level of immigrants?

Is the NDP here doing the most NDP thing ever by squandering their healthy lead as the election approaches?

The B.C NDP likely never had a healthy lead.  Just one outlier poll that gave the NDP a 10% lead.

In any other province, I think a hopeless Premier like Christy Clark would be thrown out with barely a better result than the NDP here received in 2001.   

Only in British Columbia can the B.C Liberals get reelected.

BC reminds me of what Stephen Harper was trying to set up federally. The NDP are too left wing for too many people, and without a Trudeau style liberal party to vote for, they are forced to hold their nose for the BC Liberals/Socreds.

One of the axioms of BC elections is that the NDP can only win with a divided right. Also, the province is very polarized: the last 3 elections have produced pretty much the exact same result.

The fact that the Greens are polling well is throwing a bit of a wrench into matters, but they don't appear to be hurting the NDP that much. Quite a lot of their vote is coming from people who don't like either of the two main parties.

As for why polling in BC sucks, I suspect due to the polarization of the province, if your data is skewed toward one demographic or another, it will likely amplify your overall numbers. 


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 06, 2017, 02:00:15 PM
I am seeing a big range between pollsters. Is there a reason for this?

No one knows how to poll BC. What this all means is we're probably heading for a repeat of the last three elections in which the Liberals win by 3-5%.

But why does no one know how to poll BC? High level of immigrants?

Is the NDP here doing the most NDP thing ever by squandering their healthy lead as the election approaches?

The B.C NDP likely never had a healthy lead.  Just one outlier poll that gave the NDP a 10% lead.

In any other province, I think a hopeless Premier like Christy Clark would be thrown out with barely a better result than the NDP here received in 2001.  

Only in British Columbia can the B.C Liberals get reelected.

BC reminds me of what Stephen Harper was trying to set up federally. The NDP are too left wing for too many people, and without a Trudeau style liberal party to vote for, they are forced to hold their nose for the BC Liberals/Socreds.

One of the axioms of BC elections is that the NDP can only win with a divided right. Also, the province is very polarized: the last 3 elections have produced pretty much the exact same result.


Historically, that is a bit of a myth.  The NDP would have handily won the election in 1991 had it remained a mostly two party race between the NDP and Social Credit.  Prior to the 1991 debate the NDP were leading something like 48-35% over Social Credit with the B.C Liberals at around 12-15% support.

It's also something of a myth that the B.C Liberals surged from nowhere on the strength of Gordon Wilson's one liner in the debate.  

In the 1986 election, then B.C Liberal leader and former Federal Liberal M.P Art Lee brought the party back to some respectability by getting the B.C Liberals back to around 7% of the vote. (Calculating the actual vote the Liberals received is a bit tricky due to the large number of dual member ridings that existed in that election.  The people in those ridings had two votes, so their votes are double counted.)  

In addition to the 7% of the vote though, Art Lee managed to get Provincial Liberal candidates in nearly all ridings in the province and succeeded somewhat at building up a party infrastructure in all regions, if not in all ridings.

So, it wasn't like Gordon Wilson just came out of nowhere.

Then even before the debate, the Vancouver Sun wrote an editorial mentioning that the B.C Liberals were running a number of high profile candidates and four of those were in competitive races with Social Credit in ridings where NDP support was poor.

The four were:
1.Art Cowie, a well known Vancouver Parks Commissioner who ran in Vancouver-Quilchena

2.Fred Gingell, a prominent businessperson who ran in Delta South.  Among other business concerns, Gingell had been the President or Chair of a Co-Operative gas station chain I believe named "Mohawk Gas."

3.Clive Tanner, a fairly well known book store owner who briefly ran against Gordon Wilson for the B.C Liberal Party leadership who ran in Saanich North.  Tanner had been the Minister of Health in Yukon prior to moving to B.C, and I believe he was often interviewed by the Victoria area media.

4.David Mitchell, a well known B.C Historian who ran in a West Vancouver riding.  David Mitchell is most famous for writing a biography of WAC Bennett, and for his book covering the 1986 Social Credit leadership campaign.  (I've read it, it's a pretty good book.)

All four were elected, but Art Cowie was a dud who was essentially tricked by Gordon Campbell into stepping down to allow Campbell a seat in the legislature and Clive Tanner was a disaster.

Anyway, after the debate, B.C Liberal support only increased to around 25% from the 12-15% prior, and had it not been for Social Credit's inability to refocus their campaign to go after the B.C Liberals who were taking their supporters, the B.C Liberals probably wouldn't have done anywhere near as well as they did.  So, Social Credit continued to campaign against Mike Harcourt and the NDP, even though after the debate, all that did was convince some voters in many parts of the province to vote B.C Liberal.

If I recall correctly, after the campaign, the Social Credit campaign director admitted that like the Generals at the start of World War I,  they had planned out their entire campaign and had all of their resources committed and they had no way to respond to any changing campaign circumstances.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 06, 2017, 11:58:01 PM
A couple of new riding polls
Courtenay-Comox
BC Liberals (I) 44%
NDP 29%
Green 27%

Sannich Norh and The Islands
NDP (I) 34%
BC Liberal 34%
Green 32%

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/poll-b-c-liberals-lead-in-comox-dead-heat-in-saanich-north-1.18540492 (http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/poll-b-c-liberals-lead-in-comox-dead-heat-in-saanich-north-1.18540492)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 07, 2017, 12:42:23 AM
Historically, that is a bit of a myth.  The NDP would have handily won the election in 1991 had it remained a mostly two party race between the NDP and Social Credit.  Prior to the 1991 debate the NDP were leading something like 48-35% over Social Credit with the B.C Liberals at around 12-15% support.

It's also something of a myth that the B.C Liberals surged from nowhere on the strength of Gordon Wilson's one liner in the debate.  

....

Anyway, after the debate, B.C Liberal support only increased to around 25% from the 12-15% prior, and had it not been for Social Credit's inability to refocus their campaign to go after the B.C Liberals who were taking their supporters, the B.C Liberals probably wouldn't have done anywhere near as well as they did.  So, Social Credit continued to campaign against Mike Harcourt and the NDP, even though after the debate, all that did was convince some voters in many parts of the province to vote B.C Liberal.

If I recall correctly, after the campaign, the Social Credit campaign director admitted that like the Generals at the start of World War I,  they had planned out their entire campaign and had all of their resources committed and they had no way to respond to any changing campaign circumstances.

The foregoing is the worst case of historical revisionism that I have ever read on this site. Bar none.

Right off the bat, since 1975, the then incarnation of the BC Libs was considered fringe and dead. Same with the BC Cons. Election after election thereafter, BC Libs received virtually no media coverage and signage was essentially non-existent.

Same heading into the 1991 BC campaign. Heading into the 1991 campaign, Socred Rita Johnston (a frumpy Zalmoid so-con retread) was up against the Harcourt NDP - a foregone conclusion on the eventual outcome in a "change election"- one would think.

Interestingly enough, BCTV (now Global BC) ran a daily provincial voting intention tracking poll from the commencement of the writ period on their 6 pm newscast. Back then BCTV (with anchor Tony Parsons) was the dominant powerhouse in BC in terms of ratings. Global BC is still dominant in terms of market share/ratings in terms of their 6 pm newscast, but not the same powerhouse today.

In any event, the daily BC election tracking poll led the BCTV 6 pm newscast each and every evening. Fascinating stuff. At the commencement of the 1991 writ period, the BC NDP was in mid-40% range, Socreds in mid/upper 30% range, and BC Libs ~10% range (Socred vote parking akin to BC Cons relatively recently). While BCTV only showed decided vote, they also show undecided vote separately, which was in mid-20% range.

The 1991 TV leaders debate was strictly a Socred Johnston/NDP Harcourt affair. They both opposed any new entrant such as unknown BC Lib Gordon Wilson. The BC Libs, running candidates in 71/75 ridings, felt that they were also entitled to be at the TV leaders debate. So much so, that they launched a protest and had picketers in front of the CBC building in downtown Van City. The pressure built and the network eventually capitulated.

9 days before e-day, the 1991 TV debate occurred - now with 3 party leaders. And during the debate, BC Lib leader Gordon Wilson "had his moment" with this famous poli quip: "This reminds me of the legislature and here's a classic example of why nothing ever gets done in the province of British Columbia". Archived CBC news story:

http://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/bc-elections-1991-gordon-wilsons-debate-triumph

That Gordon Wilson clip was the highlight of all TV/radio newscasts the next day. And the rest is history.

But that BCTV tracking poll at the top of their 6 pm evening newscasts also played a major part of the overall 1991 campaign. Their BC Lib numbers the following night saw a spike, which further fed into the media narrative. Another BC Lib spike the next night. So much so that the BC Libs tied the BC NDP at ~37% each with the Socreds falling to mid-20's range.

And then, ~4 - 5 days after the debate, one night BCTV's nightly tracking poll had the BC Libs over-taking the BC NDP by 1%.

Over a course of just a few days one also saw same on the ground. BC Lib lawn signs were akin to a Sasquatch siting prior to the 1991 TV leaders debate and since 1972. All of a sudden, BC Lib lawn signs sprouted akin to mushrooms all over Metro Vancouver lawns and elsewhere, which fed into that visual momentum.

The BC NDP were so concerned that they held a major press conference attended by BC NDP pitbulls such as Glen Clark and Moe Sihota, which also had major media coverage - BC NDP attacked BC Libs as untested with no experience and a dubious, uncosted platform. Wise strategic decision. Definitely blunted upward BC Lib momentum, which was also included soft-leaners.

Moreover, the BC media also then focused upon the BC Libs/their platform picking apart same. BCTV tracking polls then saw a stall in BC Lib momentum with BC NDP regaining a slight lead.

Remember this was over the course of ~6 days (~9 days from TV debate to e-day). After e-day, BC NDP strategists confided to Van Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer that, had the writ period lasted another week, 1991 would have seen a BC Lib majority gov't with their momentum. Palmer has even written about same over the past decade. Google is your friend.

Final 1991 election outcome:

BC NDP: 40.7% - 51 seats
BC Lib: 33.3% - 17 seats
Socred: 24.1% - 7 seats

As a result of Socred/Lib vote splits, BC NDP won seats in 1991 that they have never won before or since.

Had BC Lib Gordon Wilson never attended the 1991 TV leaders debate, the BC NDP/Socred spread would undoubtedly have been much closer with BC Libs only obtaining perhaps 10% siphoning off anti-Zalmoid Socred votes and the seat count would have been much closer as well.

BTW, I wrote a UBC poli 101 paper on this exact topic back in the day.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 07, 2017, 02:54:06 AM
Historically, that is a bit of a myth.  The NDP would have handily won the election in 1991 had it remained a mostly two party race between the NDP and Social Credit.  Prior to the 1991 debate the NDP were leading something like 48-35% over Social Credit with the B.C Liberals at around 12-15% support.

It's also something of a myth that the B.C Liberals surged from nowhere on the strength of Gordon Wilson's one liner in the debate.  

....

Anyway, after the debate, B.C Liberal support only increased to around 25% from the 12-15% prior, and had it not been for Social Credit's inability to refocus their campaign to go after the B.C Liberals who were taking their supporters, the B.C Liberals probably wouldn't have done anywhere near as well as they did.  So, Social Credit continued to campaign against Mike Harcourt and the NDP, even though after the debate, all that did was convince some voters in many parts of the province to vote B.C Liberal.

If I recall correctly, after the campaign, the Social Credit campaign director admitted that like the Generals at the start of World War I,  they had planned out their entire campaign and had all of their resources committed and they had no way to respond to any changing campaign circumstances.

The foregoing is the worst case of historical revisionism that I have ever read on this site. Bar none.

Right off the bat, since 1975, the then incarnation of the BC Libs was considered fringe and dead. Same with the BC Cons. Election after election thereafter, BC Libs received virtually no media coverage and signage was essentially non-existent.

Same heading into the 1991 BC campaign. Heading into the 1991 campaign, Socred Rita Johnston (a frumpy Zalmoid so-con retread) was up against the Harcourt NDP - a foregone conclusion on the eventual outcome in a "change election"- one would think.

Interestingly enough, BCTV (now Global BC) ran a daily provincial voting intention tracking poll from the commencement of the writ period on their 6 pm newscast. Back then BCTV (with anchor Tony Parsons) was the dominant powerhouse in BC in terms of ratings. Global BC is still dominant in terms of market share/ratings in terms of their 6 pm newscast, but not the same powerhouse today.

In any event, the daily BC election tracking poll led the BCTV 6 pm newscast each and every evening. Fascinating stuff. At the commencement of the 1991 writ period, the BC NDP was in mid-40% range, Socreds in mid/upper 30% range, and BC Libs ~10% range (Socred vote parking akin to BC Cons relatively recently). While BCTV only showed decided vote, they also show undecided vote separately, which was in mid-20% range.

The 1991 TV leaders debate was strictly a Socred Johnston/NDP Harcourt affair. They both opposed any new entrant such as unknown BC Lib Gordon Wilson. The BC Libs, running candidates in 71/75 ridings, felt that they were also entitled to be at the TV leaders debate. So much so, that they launched a protest and had picketers in front of the CBC building in downtown Van City. The pressure built and the network eventually capitulated.

9 days before e-day, the 1991 TV debate occurred - now with 3 party leaders. And during the debate, BC Lib leader Gordon Wilson "had his moment" with this famous poli quip: "This reminds me of the legislature and here's a classic example of why nothing ever gets done in the province of British Columbia". Archived CBC news story:

http://www.cbc.ca/archives/entry/bc-elections-1991-gordon-wilsons-debate-triumph

That Gordon Wilson clip was the highlight of all TV/radio newscasts the next day. And the rest is history.

But that BCTV tracking poll at the top of their 6 pm evening newscasts also played a major part of the overall 1991 campaign. Their BC Lib numbers the following night saw a spike, which further fed into the media narrative. Another BC Lib spike the next night. So much so that the BC Libs tied the BC NDP at ~37% each with the Socreds falling to mid-20's range.

And then, ~4 - 5 days after the debate, one night BCTV's nightly tracking poll had the BC Libs over-taking the BC NDP by 1%.

Over a course of just a few days one also saw same on the ground. BC Lib lawn signs were akin to a Sasquatch siting prior to the 1991 TV leaders debate and since 1972. All of a sudden, BC Lib lawn signs sprouted akin to mushrooms all over Metro Vancouver lawns and elsewhere, which fed into that visual momentum.

The BC NDP were so concerned that they held a major press conference attended by BC NDP pitbulls such as Glen Clark and Moe Sihota, which also had major media coverage - BC NDP attacked BC Libs as untested with no experience and a dubious, uncosted platform. Wise strategic decision. Definitely blunted upward BC Lib momentum, which was also included soft-leaners.

Moreover, the BC media also then focused upon the BC Libs/their platform picking apart same. BCTV tracking polls then saw a stall in BC Lib momentum with BC NDP regaining a slight lead.

Remember this was over the course of ~6 days (~9 days from TV debate to e-day). After e-day, BC NDP strategists confided to Van Sun columnist Vaughn Palmer that, had the writ period lasted another week, 1991 would have seen a BC Lib majority gov't with their momentum. Palmer has even written about same over the past decade. Google is your friend.

Final 1991 election outcome:

BC NDP: 40.7% - 51 seats
BC Lib: 33.3% - 17 seats
Socred: 24.1% - 7 seats

As a result of Socred/Lib vote splits, BC NDP won seats in 1991 that they have never won before or since.

Had BC Lib Gordon Wilson never attended the 1991 TV leaders debate, the BC NDP/Socred spread would undoubtedly have been much closer with BC Libs only obtaining perhaps 10% siphoning off anti-Zalmoid Socred votes and the seat count would have been much closer as well.

BTW, I wrote a UBC poli 101 paper on this exact topic back in the day.

You are the biggest liar in the B.C election thread forum, bar none.

The BCTV polls were junk polls. On the day before the election, they showed the Liberals in the lead and this was duly reported on the front page of the Vancouver Sun.  After the actual results came in, Mike Harcourt doing a riff on President Harry Truman held up the newspaper and said something like "The good news is we won the election, the bad news is the latest BCTV poll shows us in third place."

In explaining why the BCTV polls were wrong a fair bit outside the margin of error, their polling director gave the nonsensical answer of "Our polls didn't take into account the superior NDP get out the vote organization."  No election expert would ever believe that a superior campaign organization could result in a 10% difference between a poll and the actual result.  

If you actually take those junk BCTV polls in the 1991 election seriously, you clearly aren't the expert on polling you believe yourself to be.

As to the rest, the NDP on the basis of their anti-free trade campaign in the 1988 Federal Election won 19 of 32 seats federally, (and lost two other ridings by under 200 votes.)  Those 21 seats were in ridings that virtually map the 51 ridings the NDP won provincially.  The handful of credible polls in that election said why I showed, the NDP with a roughly 13% lead over Social Credit going into the debate and likely set to win the same ridings that they ended up winning.

The NDP won 19 of 32 seats and the P.C's 12 even though the NDP won the popular vote just 37.0% to 35.3%.  The Federal Liberals took the other seat and 20.4%.  This was even though the Federal Liberals also ran an anti free trade campaign, and, in that simple sense, should have split the vote with the NDP, and not the P.Cs.  So, again, the precedent of the NDP not needing a vote split on the right to win a provincial majority had already been established just 3 years before the provincial election.

The things you wrote about the B.C Liberal Party pre-debate actually backs up what I wrote:  The B.C Liberals started the campaign at around 10%, their highest level since 1975 (and increased it slightly going into the debate), and they had nearly a full slate of candidates, largely based on the organizational work of Art Lee that was followed up on by Gordon Wilson.

I don't know what would have happened to B.C Liberal support if Gordon Wilson hadn't have been in the debate, it's a counterfactual.  I have no doubt they wouldn't have scored the breakthrough they did, but it's very possible that the debate between Rita Johnson and Mike Harcourt would have turned so many viewers off that the B.C Liberals would have seen their support increase anyway.  At the very least, with or without being in the debate, it's very likely those 4 B.C Liberal candidates I mentioned would have been elected.

So, not only did you not show that my comment was revisionist history, you actually back up a good deal of it.  And, the part where you claim I'm wrong is based on the junk BCTV polls that you take seriously for some reason, even though they were as off as the 2013 election polls were. (Of course, I know why you take them seriously, they showed bad results for the NDP. So, even though they were junk, I can only presume you must believe those polls were actually right and the election result must somehow have been wrong.)

You are a liar and a troll and everybody here knows it.  I honestly have no idea why you keep posting here. I think pretty much every poster here has you on ignore.  Again, for not paying on the bet you lost to me and for 'doxing' me, I again ask the mod here to ban you from this website.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 07, 2017, 02:58:12 AM

You are a liar and a troll and everybody here knows it.  I honestly have no idea why you keep posting here. I think pretty much every poster here has you on ignore.  Again, for not paying on the bet you lost to me and for 'doxing' me, I again ask the mod here to ban you from this website.

Hahahaha. Pffft. What a maroon. You are what negatively stereotypes BC across Canada - a fringe, loony left-wing BC flake. Now run along and put me on your ignore list. ;)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 07, 2017, 03:18:39 AM

You are a liar and a troll and everybody here knows it.  I honestly have no idea why you keep posting here. I think pretty much every poster here has you on ignore.  Again, for not paying on the bet you lost to me and for 'doxing' me, I again ask the mod here to ban you from this website.

Hahahaha. Pffft. What a maroon. You are what negatively stereotypes BC across Canada - a fringe, loony left-wing BC flake. Now run along and put me on your ignore list. ;)

I've explained this to you three times, you are on my ignore list already.  Not a surprise you're not intelligent enough to understand my explanation.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 07, 2017, 05:24:42 AM
A couple of new riding polls
Courtenay-Comox
BC Liberals (I) 44%
NDP 29%
Green 27%

Sannich Norh and The Islands
NDP (I) 34%
BC Liberal 34%
Green 32%

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/poll-b-c-liberals-lead-in-comox-dead-heat-in-saanich-north-1.18540492 (http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/poll-b-c-liberals-lead-in-comox-dead-heat-in-saanich-north-1.18540492)

That's not good for the Greens. That's pretty much the same result in Saanich North and the Islands as 2013.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 07, 2017, 09:15:28 AM
Two more riding polls this morning
Esquimalt-Metchosin
NDP (I) 40%
BC Liberals 32%
Green 28%

Cowichan Valley
BC Liberals 37%
NDP (I) 35%
Green 24%

http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/poll-ndp-leading-in-esquimalt-metchosin-cowichan-valley-close-1.18650467  (http://www.timescolonist.com/news/local/poll-ndp-leading-in-esquimalt-metchosin-cowichan-valley-close-1.18650467)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 07, 2017, 10:58:09 AM
The conventional wisdom is that the two best chances the Greens have in the whole province of gaining any seats are Saanich North and Cowichan Valley. If they can't lock down Saanich North and are trailing this badly in Cowichan Valley it suggests they may be lucky to get anything beyond the 1 seat they currently have. Weaver may end up Asa footnote in history as the Ralph Nader of 2017


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on May 07, 2017, 12:10:10 PM

You are a liar and a troll and everybody here knows it.  I honestly have no idea why you keep posting here. I think pretty much every poster here has you on ignore.  Again, for not paying on the bet you lost to me and for 'doxing' me, I again ask the mod here to ban you from this website.

Hahahaha. Pffft. What a maroon. You are what negatively stereotypes BC across Canada - a fringe, loony left-wing BC flake. Now run along and put me on your ignore list. ;)

Ho-hum, recycling the old "loony left-wing flake" bashing.  Can it; it's juvenile.

But that said, the answers lie in between.  I actually agree with you on how, in certain respects, the 1991 election *actually* transpired--but at the same time, I agree with Adam T. that the Liberals had already been building up their game in 1986 (remember: they only got .5% in 1979, and 2.7% in 1983), and that was the foundation from which they were operating in 1991.  So, the BCGrits were already operating with that eventuality in mind, which is why they made a point of nominating more credible candidates than would have been the case a decade earlier--a sort of "electoral credibility banking".  There are parallels where all that + an exemplary debate (or at least soundbite) performance led to an electoral jackpot; Manitoba's Carstairs Liberals in 1988 comes to mind, or even the federal "Le Bon Jack" phenomenon in 2011.  In fact, in some ways the BC Liberals were actually *saved* by their still-limited legislative gains in 1991; by and large the best people won, and the caucus was relatively accidental-flake-free, which formed a solid foundation for the Gordon Campbell era.

Given the context of the time, I also disagree with the assessment of BCTV polls as "junk polls"--junk, maybe, to the geeks that populate this forum; but in those pre-Internet days when the masses still gathered around the TV screen for their evening news regimen, they carried a lot of clout, even if there was arguably a touch of push-poll or confirmation bias about them--the latter borne out by how they didn't *quite* capture the final result.

I think, in the end, we all should quit these accusations and counter-accusations re what is or isn't a junk poll (or at least, heavy-handedly bandying around the term "junk poll", which is as obnoxious as duels over what is or isn't "fake news").  I mean, there are obvious signals/cases of "junkiness" (like, taking the BC Cons electorally seriously in 2017); but it might be more useful to simply strategically regard it *all* as one form or another of "junk" which provides useful trend and pattern data all the same, cum grano salis or not.  Distill it all, and form our own conclusions with a touch of "chance allowance", and let everything fall as it may and draw more conclusions from *that*.

It's a reason why, in my heart, I prefer post-mortem analysis to prediction analysis, and why I do *not* like to predict percentages, seat numbers, etc--any or this sports-pool/playing-the-stocks  boring-dude type of stuff.  I don't mind *witnessing* them in boards like this one; I just don't like to participate--I'd rather sponge off the rest of you, who are, in the end, no more "junky" than the polls you deride....


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 07, 2017, 01:37:34 PM

You are a liar and a troll and everybody here knows it.  I honestly have no idea why you keep posting here. I think pretty much every poster here has you on ignore.  Again, for not paying on the bet you lost to me and for 'doxing' me, I again ask the mod here to ban you from this website.

Hahahaha. Pffft. What a maroon. You are what negatively stereotypes BC across Canada - a fringe, loony left-wing BC flake. Now run along and put me on your ignore list. ;)

Ho-hum, recycling the old "loony left-wing flake" bashing.  Can it; it's juvenile.

But that said, the answers lie in between.  I actually agree with you on how, in certain respects, the 1991 election *actually* transpired--but at the same time, I agree with Adam T. that the Liberals had already been building up their game in 1986 (remember: they only got .5% in 1979, and 2.7% in 1983), and that was the foundation from which they were operating in 1991.  So, the BCGrits were already operating with that eventuality in mind, which is why they made a point of nominating more credible candidates than would have been the case a decade earlier--a sort of "electoral credibility banking".  There are parallels where all that + an exemplary debate (or at least soundbite) performance led to an electoral jackpot; Manitoba's Carstairs Liberals in 1988 comes to mind, or even the federal "Le Bon Jack" phenomenon in 2011.  In fact, in some ways the BC Liberals were actually *saved* by their still-limited legislative gains in 1991; by and large the best people won, and the caucus was relatively accidental-flake-free, which formed a solid foundation for the Gordon Campbell era.

Given the context of the time, I also disagree with the assessment of BCTV polls as "junk polls"--junk, maybe, to the geeks that populate this forum; but in those pre-Internet days when the masses still gathered around the TV screen for their evening news regimen, they carried a lot of clout, even if there was arguably a touch of push-poll or confirmation bias about them--the latter borne out by how they didn't *quite* capture the final result.

I think, in the end, we all should quit these accusations and counter-accusations re what is or isn't a junk poll (or at least, heavy-handedly bandying around the term "junk poll", which is as obnoxious as duels over what is or isn't "fake news").  I mean, there are obvious signals/cases of "junkiness" (like, taking the BC Cons electorally seriously in 2017); but it might be more useful to simply strategically regard it *all* as one form or another of "junk" which provides useful trend and pattern data all the same, cum grano salis or not.  Distill it all, and form our own conclusions with a touch of "chance allowance", and let everything fall as it may and draw more conclusions from *that*.

It's a reason why, in my heart, I prefer post-mortem analysis to prediction analysis, and why I do *not* like to predict percentages, seat numbers, etc--any or this sports-pool/playing-the-stocks  boring-dude type of stuff.  I don't mind *witnessing* them in boards like this one; I just don't like to participate--I'd rather sponge off the rest of you, who are, in the end, no more "junky" than the polls you deride....

1.I meant junk polls in that their methodology was clearly terrible.  I don't mean it in the sense that people didn't take them seriously.  I also made no claim that their polls were deliberately biased against the NDP.

2.I somewhat agree about the quality of the Liberal M.L.As elected in 1991.  Of the 17, there were only four good M.L.As - Fred Gingell, Gary Farrell Collins, Wilf Hurd and, for awhile, David Mitchell.

But many were harmless non entities like Val Anderson and Doug Symons, Dan Jarvis, Ken Jones, Art Cowie, Lynn Stephens, Robert Chisholm (elected in Chilliwack,I actually don't remember him) but quite a few were outright noxious - Jeremy Dalton, Clive Tanner, Judi Tyabji, Gordon Wilson and Linda Reid.  

Allan Warnke was one of the strongest critics for awhile, as he was one of the most knowledgeable Liberals on government and legislative procedure having been a political science professor.  But, he became a relatively high profile critic on the basis of his bombast, and after short while, it became clear that all he had to offer was bombast.

After Gordon Campbell became leader, he recruited Geoff Plant to run as the Liberal nominee in Richmond-Steveston against Allan Warnke, and Warnke ended up running as independent and received less than 3% of the vote.  Geoff Plant was an excellent M.L.A.

I think Fred Gingell would have made a better finance minister than Gary (Farrell) Collins did, but you can't always get what you want.

While Gordon Wilson, following up on the work of Art Lee did continue to build on the organization of the B.C Liberals, and ran candidates in nearly every riding, the quality of the candidates was sometimes lacking.  One of the things that stopped the B.C Liberal's momentum in that election was Wilson's admission that he hadn't met every B.C Liberal candidate in the province. This was taken as an admission that he knew practically nothing about at least some of his party's candidates.

3.Most importantly, irrespective of the B.C Liberals, the NDP was going to easily defeat Social Credit in 1991 had the election remained a mostly two way race with the B.C Liberals getting between 10-15% of the vote.  The NDP did not need a 'split on the right' to win in 1991.



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 08, 2017, 07:43:36 AM
Final Mainstreet (IVR) poll:

NDP: 40% (-2)
Lib: 39% (+2)
Green: 21% (=-0)

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-liberals-set-majority/

Mainstreet also conducted riding polls in 4 swing ridings:

Surrey-Fleetwood, Delta-North, Saanich North & The Islands and Fraser-Nicola - All had Liberal leads.

Ipsos:

NDP: 40% (-1)
Lib: 39% (-4)
Green: 17% (+3)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 08, 2017, 01:05:59 PM
CKNW talk show host Simi Sara is giving away a prize to any person who emails her with the correct seat total prediction. (She doesn't know what prize yet, I've offered her some of my B.C politics books)

Even better, the winner will be interviewed by her on Wednesday.

I hope it's OK to post her (work) email address here:
simi@cknw.com


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 08, 2017, 02:22:25 PM
If NDP and LIB are neck-to-neck then my guess is that NDP will win.  I assume the pollsters have adjusted their methods after the 2013 polling failure to pick up LIB support.  My guess they mostly have over adjusted and this time NDP will under-poll.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 08, 2017, 06:03:43 PM
If NDP and LIB are neck-to-neck then my guess is that NDP will win.  I assume the pollsters have adjusted their methods after the 2013 polling failure to pick up LIB support.  My guess they mostly have over adjusted and this time NDP will under-poll.

Perhaps you are right, although my gut reaction is to assume the left can't win unless there's two rightist parties because British Columbia :P


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 08, 2017, 08:18:09 PM
The final poll from Insightwest is out and it its another indication of a cliffhanger:

NDP - 41%
Libs - 41%
Greens - 17% (and a distant 3rd on Vancouver Island now)

http://www.insightswest.com/news/outcome-uncertain-as-a-divided-british-columbia-prepares-to-vote/

PS: People say the NDP has only ever won when the rightwing vote was split - but in 1991 the BC Liberals were nothing like the BC Liberals of today. They ran as a sort of federal Liberal-like small "l" liberal party that was more left of centre


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 09, 2017, 02:17:06 AM
Well... Forum Research has now chimed in as well. Can't have an election without Forum, eh? ;)

Forum's final poll in 2013 was a 2% BC NDP lead. Ditto for 2017. Who woulda thunk?

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/07171cf6-1255-4199-a512-2d782fbda181BC%20FINAL%20Election.pdf


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 09, 2017, 06:47:13 AM
Forum did a final IVR poll all conducted yesterday that also points to a photo-finish. Looks like they finally came to their senses and stopped prompting for the BC Conservatives and they also seem to find a last minute drop off for the Greens

NDP 41% (up 4 from last week)
Liberals 39% (up 10 from last week)
Greens 17% (down 7 from last week)
Other 3% (unchanged)
Conservatives 0% (down from 7% last week)

I wouldnt be surprised if the Greens fall further to 14-15% as people go to the polls seeing screaming headlines about a photo-finish


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 09, 2017, 10:21:46 AM
Green vote collapsing as expected. However, it seems to be helping the Liberals. Perhaps the NDP can only win when the centre and centre-right are divided? Green voters are as a whole not in the centre, but perhaps their softest supporters are in the centre.

Much of the talk is that even if the NDP wins the popular vote by a point or two, they will still lose because of inefficient vote distribution. But, that's assuming a uniform swing from the last election, so it's foolish to bet on that entirely. Remember in 1996 the opposite scenario happened.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 09, 2017, 10:51:36 AM
Green vote collapsing as expected. However, it seems to be helping the Liberals. Perhaps the NDP can only win when the centre and centre-right are divided? Green voters are as a whole not in the centre, but perhaps their softest supporters are in the centre.


The only poll that shows the Green vote "collapsing" is Forum and I'm sceptical they were ever as high as 245 in the first place. I suspcet that there is relatively little Green-Liberal movement. I think that there is movement of the vestigial BC Conservative vote to the Liberals and some Liberal gains from undecideds, counterbalanced by the NDP picking up last minute tactical votes from Greens who don't want to split the vote and re-elect the Liberals


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 09, 2017, 11:02:10 AM
Green vote collapsing as expected. However, it seems to be helping the Liberals. Perhaps the NDP can only win when the centre and centre-right are divided? Green voters are as a whole not in the centre, but perhaps their softest supporters are in the centre.


The only poll that shows the Green vote "collapsing" is Forum and I'm sceptical they were ever as high as 245 in the first place. I suspcet that there is relatively little Green-Liberal movement. I think that there is movement of the vestigial BC Conservative vote to the Liberals and some Liberal gains from undecideds, counterbalanced by the NDP picking up last minute tactical votes from Greens who don't want to split the vote and re-elect the Liberals

I am almost certain the Greens will not actually get what they're polling at. Close elections have a tendency to depress third party turnout.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 09, 2017, 12:19:00 PM

I am almost certain the Greens will not actually get what they're polling at. Close elections have a tendency to depress third party turnout.

I agree. If the average of the final polls has them at 18% - i expect they will be at 14-15%...in the last three BC elections final polls had the Greens around 12-13% and they wound up at 8%


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on May 09, 2017, 04:06:23 PM

I am almost certain the Greens will not actually get what they're polling at. Close elections have a tendency to depress third party turnout.

I agree. If the average of the final polls has them at 18% - i expect they will be at 14-15%...in the last three BC elections final polls had the Greens around 12-13% and they wound up at 8%

BUT... where does this vote go? Would this bloated Green vote, say by 6-8% parked, translate? will this benefit the Liberals, the NDP or will it just not show up. Greens heavily preferenced the NDP, so is the NDP vote effectively under-polled by say 4%?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 09, 2017, 05:13:07 PM
Polls have consistently shown that soft Green voters when asked their second choice would go NDP over Liberal by about a 4-1 margin. Some greens will stay home since a lot of their voters are younger and disengaged. But a lot of Green voters are also very anti-Christy Clark, so I think that the lower the Green vote the better for the NDP. Whether its enough is anyone's guess


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 09, 2017, 06:00:37 PM
So which website is the best place to watch results come in? I haven't been a fan of CBC's redesign.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 09, 2017, 07:41:05 PM
So which website is the best place to watch results come in? I haven't been a fan of CBC's redesign.

www.cknw.com will have a combined radio/television effort with Global News. 


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 07:53:02 PM
I have Global News' running in the background:

http://globalnews.ca/news/3432025/live-bc-election-2017-real-time-results/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 09, 2017, 08:09:06 PM
Thanks, much appreciated.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on May 09, 2017, 08:24:30 PM
Just voted Green! Meh, it's in a safe LIB riding anywho. If the NDP loses to the Liberals again they are going to be a dead party. This is a pretty winnable election for them.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Cynthia on May 09, 2017, 08:56:32 PM
Just voted Green! Meh, it's in a safe LIB riding anywho. If the NDP loses to the Liberals again they are going to be a dead party. This is a pretty winnable election for them.

I live in Burnaby North, so... yeah my vote went NDP.

With that being said my enthusiasm for this election is not very high, for some strange reason


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 09, 2017, 09:44:42 PM
From my perspective in Ontario I'd be much more enthusiastic if I was voting in BC than ON. Horgan is better than Horwath and I'd be happy if he was a choice that could win here.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 09, 2017, 09:52:10 PM
Just voted Green! Meh, it's in a safe LIB riding anywho. If the NDP loses to the Liberals again they are going to be a dead party. This is a pretty winnable election for them.

*shakes head*


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 09:59:24 PM
And here...we...go...


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 09, 2017, 10:07:08 PM
Results from Elections BC

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_Party.html


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 09, 2017, 10:11:20 PM
And the CBC to fill it all out.

http://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/bcvotes2017/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 09, 2017, 10:17:15 PM
CBC, CTV and Global no results.
ELections BC has Results from Peace River River and Cariboo-Chilcotin (both leading Liberal)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 10:27:46 PM
Results coming in fairly quickly now, mostly from safe ridings for both the Liberals and NDP. Both are leading in 8 ridings each and none are particularly close.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 10:33:47 PM
Greens already screwing the NDP on Vancouver Island.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 10:34:14 PM
Libs now up 18-11.

48%-35%-16% in the popular vote.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Holmes on May 09, 2017, 10:34:56 PM
Just voted Green but if the NDP loses then they suck


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 09, 2017, 10:39:30 PM
Just voted Green but if the NDP loses then they suck

Maybe because they're having trouble winning over Green voters.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 09, 2017, 10:40:04 PM
Greens up in Saanich North and the Island

EDIT: and in Kootenay West :p


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 10:41:12 PM
30-22-2 right now. Greens are harming Dippers in Greater Vancouver and Vancouver Island.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 10:43:26 PM
Kelowna-Lake County the first riding called, for the Liberals.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 10:43:58 PM
Libs lead 31-22-2. Greens ahead in Saanich North, but I don't see where else. Nothing in yet from Oak Bay.

Kelowna is the first seat to be called -- for the Liberals. At the federal level, this is a longtime safe Reform/Conservative seat that was picked up by the Trudeau Liberals in 2015, recording a much greater swing than most of the region, in what was definitely the most impressive Lib win in BC, and one of the most impressive nationwide

EDIT: With the update, Libs up 39-27-0. NDP now ahead in Saanich North, by 10 votes


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 10:45:46 PM
The Green candidate in Columbia River-Revelstoke looks like he's 12 years old.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 10:46:36 PM
Amusingly, the riding of North Island is currently an exact tie between the Libs and NDP.

EDIT: Vancouver-Quilchena called for the Libs. Very safe seat (went 64-25 for Libs in 2013). Kelowna, the other called seat, was 57-25 back then. Current lead in Vancouver-Quilchena, 58-25


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 10:47:04 PM
NDP takes the lead in Saanich North and the Islands.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 09, 2017, 10:48:08 PM
Total vote count lead by LIB of 47.3% vs NDP 35.1% looks pretty good for LIB right now ...


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 10:49:44 PM
45 Libs, 28 NDP, 1 Green. 47%-35%-15%. Clearly a Liberal victory here.

Greens currently lead NDP in Saanich North 37-34. Libs far behind there.

EDIT: First NDP call of the night in Powell River. Libs receive calls in Abbotsford, Vancouver-Quilchena, Kelowna-Lake Country (which I mistakenly abbreviated to just Kelowna earlier), and Kelowna-Mission


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 09, 2017, 10:51:10 PM
About 5% of the polls reported, the smaller polls tend to be counted first (fewer ballots to be counted) , and then the larger polls. Maybe 2-3% of the votes has been counted.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: KingSweden on May 09, 2017, 10:51:53 PM
44 seats for majority yes?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 10:52:08 PM
40-34-1. Greens have the lead in Saanich.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 10:52:55 PM
Vancouver-Quilchena called for the Liberals.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 10:53:27 PM
Libs win Surrey-White Rock. NDP wins Vancouver-Mount Pleasant.

In terms of leads, Liberal 40, NDP 34, Greens 1 (tightening). In terms of called seats, Libs lead NDP 5-2. Popular vote is 46%-36%-15%.

EDIT: Libs win Delta South. NDP wins Surrey-Walley.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 09, 2017, 10:54:18 PM
The NDP is pretty far behind in the popular vote. If we are looking at a close race in the popular vote, then a lot of the NDP areas aren't in yet.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 09, 2017, 10:54:24 PM
The CON vote collapse should seem like a bad sign for NDP.  


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 10:56:23 PM
Powell River-Sunshine Coast an NDP victory.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 10:57:04 PM
First poll in Saanich South has the Greens and NDP exactly tied. Looks like Greens may emerge with a couple of seats on the island once all this is said and done (still nothing in at all from Oak Bay, their 2013 victory).

Getting tired of reporting exact seats since so many are coming in, but Libs lead NDP 9-4 in terms of calls, none of which are remarkable. 42Lib-35NDP-1Green seat leads. 45%-37%-15% PV.

EDIT: One notable call -- the first seat called on the island, Mid Island, is for the NDP. Alberni-Pacific Rim, the seat it is descended from, is fairly NDP, but still notable as the Greens cut into their vote on the Island.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 11:00:48 PM
Liberals have a large lead right now in called seats and the popular vote, but the total seat count in terms of leads is actually fairly close. NDP seem to have a lot of fairly safe seats, the 2001 wipe-out notwithstanding.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 09, 2017, 11:01:28 PM
The CON vote collapse should seem like a bad sign for NDP.  

LOL they're a non-factor; running in just 10 seats


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 09, 2017, 11:03:31 PM
The CON vote collapse should seem like a bad sign for NDP.  

LOL they're a non-factor; running in just 10 seats

Well, they did get almost 5% of the vote in 2013.  Now I think it is near zero.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 11:04:06 PM
This election will come down to a handful of marginals.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 11:07:03 PM
NDP just took the lead in two ridings. Total is now 42-40-1 with a handful still not reporting.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 09, 2017, 11:08:57 PM
NDP is doing reasonably well in most of the marginals, which is good news. Lots of talk about the huge advance polls. Wonder how they will lean?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 09, 2017, 11:09:40 PM
Pretty amazing how close the seat count is given the large LIB vote share lead.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 11:10:38 PM
The seat lead is 42-40-1 for the Libs right now (with 2 seats still entirely out), even as they lead 45%-37%-15% on the popular vote.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 11:11:41 PM
Pretty amazing how close the seat count is given the large LIB vote share lead.
Liberals are running up the score in their safe ridings while somewhat underperfoming in marginals. It's 41-41-1 with one tied and three still not reporting.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 11:12:36 PM
Libs lead 26-13 in called seats and 44%-38% in popular vote, but the seat count is tied 41-41.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 11:15:48 PM
NDP just took the lead. 43-42-1.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 09, 2017, 11:19:12 PM
The one seat with no results went Green back in 2013


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 11:22:47 PM
44-41-1 with no results from the sole Green-held seat.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 11:29:03 PM
What are they smoking in Oak Bay-Gordon Head?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 09, 2017, 11:31:29 PM
What are they smoking in Oak Bay-Gordon Head?

Elections BC says that phone line is down (Not sure why they can't use cell phones)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 11:35:55 PM
NDP: 43
Libs: 42
Greens: 1
And Oak Bay.

This election will come down to handful of ridings where the Greens are polling strong third place, like Courtenay-Comox and Vancouver False Creek.

Green candidate formally elected in Saanich.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 11:36:58 PM
NDP just took a three vote lead in Maple Ridge-Mission, pushing them up to 44 seats.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 11:37:44 PM
Finally getting Oak Bay in, huge lead for the Greens.

44-41-2.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 09, 2017, 11:37:52 PM
NDP picks up their first swing seat! Surrey-Fleetwood


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 11:41:08 PM
Libs take the lead in Nechako Lakes, pushing them up to 42 seats.

The Greens will very likely hold the balance of power in the next assembly.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 09, 2017, 11:43:16 PM
So far LIB is ahead in 11 seats with leads with less than 1000 votes.  NDP is ahead in 19 seats with leads less than 1000 votes.  So all things equal the LIB seat count is more likely to go up than down.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 09, 2017, 11:46:21 PM
I can't begin to fathom why 15% of the voters would cast a useless vote for the Greens when NDP is an available alternative. Canada is just weird sometimes.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 11:49:18 PM
I can't begin to fathom why 15% of the voters would cast a useless vote for the Greens when NDP is an available alternative. Canada is just weird sometimes.

Desire for a centrist (or center-left) alternative? The Greens are seen as being to the right of the NDP in a Canadian context, and the NDP might be seen as far from the median BC voter; lots of people may want to vote for a leftier government, or against the Liberals, but not feel comfortable voting for the NDP. Their last term in government in BC, from 1991-2001, was also widely seen as a disaster that left them with just 2 seats in the Assembly, and they've never really quite recovered.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 09, 2017, 11:52:16 PM
I can't begin to fathom why 15% of the voters would cast a useless vote for the Greens when NDP is an available alternative. Canada is just weird sometimes.

I agree. You might want to ask the couple of posters here who did just that.

Looks like the Greens will in fact cost the NDP a victory. Good job, guys.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 09, 2017, 11:52:54 PM
The Greens have almost caught the NDP in Cowichan Valley


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 09, 2017, 11:53:12 PM
1 LIB lead at risk: Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
4 NDP lead at risk: Maple Ridge-Mission, Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows, Courtenay-Comox, Saanich South

All things equal if there are going to be shifts now it will be in the advantage of LIB


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 09, 2017, 11:54:19 PM
Liberals take the lead in Coquitlam, but it's only by 14 votes.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 09, 2017, 11:56:50 PM
Libs up 43-42-2 in seat leads. Just 14 seats left to call; Libs up 42.1%-39.2% in the popular vote. Considering the late votes seem to be more NDP-favorable, looks like we could very well have a wrong-winner situation on our hands


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 12:03:27 AM
NDP are catching up in Vancouver False Creek - only 38 votes behind with 55/93 reporting.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:05:01 AM
Balance of risk shifting against LIB

Now at risk for LIB:  Vancouver-False Creek, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
and at  risk for NDP: Maple Ridge-Mission, Cowichan Valley (to Greens)



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:07:44 AM
Cowichan Valley now has Greens ahead


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: andrew_c on May 10, 2017, 12:09:08 AM
84% chance of hung parliament according to CTV.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:09:38 AM
Vancouver-False Creek now NDP ahead


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 10, 2017, 12:10:53 AM
F**king Greens.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:11:28 AM
84% chance of hung parliament according to CTV.

Yeah, if Greens gets 3 seats then it is hard for either LIB or NDP to win 44 at this stage.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:13:42 AM
LIB vote share lead down to 2%


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 10, 2017, 12:13:45 AM
Greens taking the lead in Cowichan Valley. Overall score is 42-42-3; called seats are at 40-37-2. Liberals probably slightly likelier to win, but NDP still in the hunt; will virtually certainly be a minority government either way.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:14:25 AM
This result is a dream come true for the Greens


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 10, 2017, 12:15:30 AM
So, one thing to remember: Lots of advance votes still left to count. They wont be counted for a while (days?) because Elections BC is understaffed. This election probably wont be called tonight.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:15:58 AM
Maple Ridge-Mission now has LIB ahead
 


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 10, 2017, 12:16:21 AM
So, one thing to remember: Lots of advance votes still left to count. They wont be counted for a while (days?) because Elections BC is understaffed. This election probably wont be called tonight.

How do those votes lean?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:16:25 AM
So, one thing to remember: Lots of advance votes still left to count. They wont be counted for a while (days?) because Elections BC is understaffed. This election probably wont be called tonight.

Historically has such advanced votes favored LIB or NDP?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 10, 2017, 12:17:38 AM
3 Riding where the difference between the Liberal and NDP is less than 250

Coq-Burke Mtn (69 of 82) 107 Lib Vote Lead
Maple Ridge Mission - (42/97) - 44 Lib Vote Lead
Van False Creek (61/93) - 32 NDP Vote Lead

Current Results: LIB 43, NDP 41, Green 3



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on May 10, 2017, 12:22:22 AM
Back to tied. Man what a night!!


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: andrew_c on May 10, 2017, 12:30:26 AM
CTV projects hung parliament.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 10, 2017, 12:31:17 AM
What happens if there is a tie? Do one of the parties do a formal coalition with the Greens? Is there a revote? Could someone pull a David Emerson and switch sides? Does Clark remain in office on inertia?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Holmes on May 10, 2017, 12:32:55 AM
What happens if there is a tie? Do one of the parties do a formal coalition with the Greens? Is there a revote? Could someone pull a David Emerson and switch sides? Does Clark remain in office on inertia?

Greens probably crawl up the Liberals' asses as per.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: andrew_c on May 10, 2017, 12:34:58 AM
Clark is the incumbent premier, so she gets the first shot to form a government.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 12:35:19 AM
What happens if there is a tie? Do one of the parties do a formal coalition with the Greens? Is there a revote? Could someone pull a David Emerson and switch sides? Does Clark remain in office on inertia?
Minority Liberal government.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 10, 2017, 12:37:54 AM
Where is Lotuslander tonight? Is he on suicide watch?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:41:04 AM
1 LIB at risk : Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
3 NDP at risk: Courtenay-Comox, Vancouver-False Creek, Maple Ridge-Mission


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:50:55 AM
All 3 NDP seats at risk: Courtenay-Comox, Vancouver-False Creek, Maple Ridge-Mission all just got closer.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 10, 2017, 12:55:09 AM
Cowichan Valley called for the Greens! 3 seats confirmed.

4 seats left uncalled, all Liberal-NDP marginals, Liberals currently lead just 1. If they win:
3-4, they get a majority government
2, they get a minority government
1, they probably get a minority government but much wrangling ensues
0, the NDP win a minority government

Interesting fact: if the NDP carry Vancouver-False Creek, one of the four uncalled marginals left, they will elect Morgane Oger, who will be the first openly transgender MLA in Canadian history, in any province.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 12:56:43 AM
It's all down to Coquitlam. If the Libs hold that, they're assured government.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 12:59:09 AM
Assuming it ends up 42-42 I assume LIB can also claim, in addition to being the incumbent party, that they won the popular vote so they should have first shot at government formation.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:02:14 AM
Assuming it ends up 42-42 I assume LIB can also claim, in addition to being the incumbent party, that they won the popular vote so they should have first shot at government formation.
Popular vote has nothing to do with it. The incumbent party gets first shot.

Regardless, the Libs increased their lead in Coquitlam. With only four polls remaining, I can't see the NDP coming back.

NDP lead in Vancouver-False Creek is down to less than 50 votes.

Maple Ridge-Mission and Courtenay-Comax are probably the safest non-called NDP seats, both with a 100+ vote lead.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 10, 2017, 01:04:42 AM
Conservatives almost certainly spoiled the race in Courtenay-Comox for the Liberals; their vote is many times the current margin between the Liberals and the NDP.

Vancouver-False Creek and Maple Ridge-Mission are both within 100 votes with a bit of juice left and the last movement in both seats towards the Liberals; I reckon the Liberals win at least one uncalled seat beyond Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, which is really waiting for a call at this point.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:06:41 AM
The Cons definitely are playing spoiler in Maple Ridge-Mission, too. 757 useless votes for the BC Conservatives there, with the Liberals trailing by 150.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 01:07:06 AM
I assume that if it ends up being a minority government of some sort that we should be seeing a mid-term election soon ?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 01:08:04 AM
Conservatives almost certainly spoiled the race in Courtenay-Comox for the Liberals; their vote is many times the current margin between the Liberals and the NDP.

Vancouver-False Creek and Maple Ridge-Mission are both within 100 votes with a bit of juice left and the last movement in both seats towards the Liberals; I reckon the Liberals win at least one uncalled seat beyond Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, which is really waiting for a call at this point.
There are ~5000 uncounted early votes in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain. The % of polls reporting is a misleading figure if what you want is % of votes counted.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:08:59 AM
I assume that if it ends up being a minority government of some sort that we should be seeing a mid-term election soon ?
Yes. The NDP and Greens could ally to force an early election at an inconvenient time for the Liberals, or the Liberals could call an early one at an inconvenient time for the other two.

The latest poll report from Coquitlam saw the Liberal lead move up a smidge. Two polls left.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:10:21 AM
The Liberal candidate is surging in Courtenay. Less than 30 vote lead for the NDP there, when it was over 300 just a few minutes ago.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 10, 2017, 01:10:46 AM
Courtenay-Comas, NDP now leading by 26 votes (6 polls remaining)
False Creek - NDP leading by 48 votes (6 polls remaining)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 10, 2017, 01:11:42 AM
I guess for Richmond-Queensborough, Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, Courtenay-Comox, Vancouver-False Creek, Maple Ridge-Mission the results will have to be determined by early votes.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Figueira on May 10, 2017, 01:14:19 AM
Is there a link to the results?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:15:21 AM
Liberal just took an 86-vote lead in Courtenay.

The Liberals will form government. There's a chance they'll even get a majority.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 10, 2017, 01:16:16 AM

http://www.macleans.ca/politics/bc-election-live-election-results-map/

If the final results in both Maple Ridge-Mission and Courtenay-Comox are pushing those seats to the Liberals, then a majority is still possible: winning 3/4 of the current uncalled seats is all it would take. They can afford to lose one (presumably, Vancouver-False Creek looks like the best bet for the NDP of the current seats, which has the added benefit for them of being a HISTORIC result).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 10, 2017, 01:16:33 AM


http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_Party.html

Liberals leading in Courtenay-Comas


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:16:40 AM

http://globalnews.ca/news/3432025/live-bc-election-2017-real-time-results/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:19:00 AM
Does Horgan resign after this? This was a winnable election that they lost.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:21:26 AM
More polls closed in Maple Ridge-Mission. NDP increased their lead there.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Jeppe on May 10, 2017, 01:23:48 AM
Advance vote usually favours NDP because older voters (not the NDP's base) shows up more to vote on election day. Grante,  the difference in early voting vs e-day voting isn't quite as pronounced here in Canada compared to America, but the NDP generally does better in advance polls.

Taking that into account, there's a chance that the NDP sweeps all 5 seats (Coquitlam, Richmond, Courtenay, False Creek, and Maple Ridge) through winning the advance votes there.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 10, 2017, 01:24:52 AM
Liberals leading in False Creek, 44 seats


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 10, 2017, 01:26:33 AM
This is beyond pathetic.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 01:27:17 AM
False Creek's first advance poll strongly favours the Liberals. Bad news if it continues.
EDIT: NDP back ahead in Courtenay-Comox. Advance polling having mixed results so far.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Cynthia on May 10, 2017, 01:27:36 AM
John Horgan needs to resign if NDP somehow doesn't at least force a minority government.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:27:56 AM
The Liberals just took a huge lead in False Creek. They have a majority.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 10, 2017, 01:28:07 AM
NDP increase lead in Maple Ridge-Mission, but Liberals have somehow snuck through in Vancouver-False Creek. Current numbers are 44-40-3; which would be a narrow majority for Clark.

EDIT: Courtenay-Comox flipped back, so we're down to 43-41-3; a minority government. NDP can still form a minority if the absentee vote for them is strong enough to carry all 4 seats that are in doubt.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 01:28:22 AM
The Liberals just took a huge lead in False Creek. They have a majority.
Back down to 43, due to Courtenay-Comox


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:28:44 AM
NDP just retook the lead in Courtenay. only two polls left and a 160 vote lead there.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:30:30 AM
Maple Ridge-Mission now looking extremely vulnerable for the NDP...less than a 40 vote lead there with three polls still out.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:33:18 AM
Coquitlam finally called.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 10, 2017, 01:33:21 AM
A little late to the party, I know, but seeing as the Greens leader basically called Horgan a raging lunatic a few days ago, I wouldn't put much faith in them assisting an NDP minority situation.

Also, for some of our posters who might be unaware, coalitions are basically anathema to Canada (as in they don't exist except for that sh**tshow in December 2008) and the only thing that would come out of a hung parliament would be a loose confidence and supply deal which almost certainly would collapse before the end of the term.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 10, 2017, 01:34:26 AM
Maple Ridge-Mission all polls are counted. NDP wins by 120 votes.
Only chance for a LIB majority is Courtenay-Comax, 2 polls remain, 166 NDP vote lead.




Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:34:32 AM
Maple Ridge-Mission finally called for the NDP. It's down to Courtenay and False Creek.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:36:44 AM
One poll in Courtenay-Comox remains. 150 vote lead for the NDP.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:39:17 AM
The Conservative vote royally screwed the BC Liberals in Courtenay.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 10, 2017, 01:39:25 AM
NDP wins Cout-Comax by 9 Votes!


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Jeppe on May 10, 2017, 01:39:55 AM
No idea why they already called Richmond-Queensborough, Libs ahead by 170 votes and there's still 11 polls left.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:40:35 AM
Wow. Crazy. I imagine the Liberals will agitate for a recount.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:41:21 AM
No idea why they already called Richmond-Queensborough, Libs ahead by 170 votes and there's still 11 polls left.
Mayne the NDP-heavy areas already voted and the rest of the riding is heavy Liberal?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 10, 2017, 01:42:47 AM
No idea why they already called Richmond-Queensborough, Libs ahead by 170 votes and there's still 11 polls left.
Mayne the NDP-heavy areas already voted and the rest of the riding is heavy Liberal?

The CBC hasn't called that one.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 10, 2017, 01:44:26 AM
Nothing left but False Creek; Libs up ~400 votes with 3 polls to go. Looks like it'll be a Liberal minority, though of course absentee voting was much higher than usual this time around and we may get some surprises.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:45:23 AM
No idea why they already called Richmond-Queensborough, Libs ahead by 170 votes and there's still 11 polls left.
Mayne the NDP-heavy areas already voted and the rest of the riding is heavy Liberal?

The CBC hasn't called that one.
Huh. Global News and the Vancouver Sun both have.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 10, 2017, 01:45:52 AM
Wow. Crazy. I imagine the Liberals will agitate for a recount.

According to the CBC there will be an automatic judicial recount


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Cynthia on May 10, 2017, 01:48:24 AM
9 vote is way too close to call--probably would never happen in US


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 10, 2017, 01:49:03 AM
Looking back at the 2013 results, even taking into account redistricting, there seems to have been a lot of churn at this election: the net is that Liberals are slightly weaker, but a rather large number of seats flipped, both NDP-->Lib and Lib-->NDP (generally, the first are more rural while the second are urban, but this rule isn't absolute). Swings in a lot of places are rather large. I wanna note the mild realignment, but considering that this is Canada and large-scale realignments happen frequently, maybe not worth noticing?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 10, 2017, 01:52:31 AM
NDP slowly climbing in Richmond-Queensborough, but with 8 polls left, I'm not sure if it's enough


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 01:52:41 AM
Looking back at the 2013 results, even taking into account redistricting, there seems to have been a lot of churn at this election: the net is that Liberals are slightly weaker, but a rather large number of seats flipped, both NDP-->Lib and Lib-->NDP (generally, the first are more rural while the second are urban, but this rule isn't absolute). Swings in a lot of places are rather large. I wanna note the mild realignment, but considering that this is Canada and large-scale realignments happen frequently, maybe not worth noticing?
Sure it's worth noticing. In Ontario we've been noticing the opposite trend with the NDP declining in Toronto but gaining in rust belt-ish areas of the province. And of course this is Canada so it can all be reversed in one election.

It's not a surprise in this case; Horgan made a conscientious decision to do no campaigning in the Interior, focusing almost entirely on metro Vancouver, with one stop on the Island.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 10, 2017, 01:54:35 AM
40 votes separate the Lib and Dip now. They might do it.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 10, 2017, 01:56:31 AM
Also important to note for Courtenay-Comox: Absentee ballots may be more substantial than usual due to the presence of the military base there, and the Liberal candidate is the former base commander, so he may benefit from those absentees.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on May 10, 2017, 02:00:55 AM
Love having my province witness this epic election! :D


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: BigSkyBob on May 10, 2017, 02:05:03 AM
Liberal ahead by 559 with one box to go in Vancouver False Creek


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 10, 2017, 02:07:45 AM
Queensboroguh lead is about 230 with two polls left - looks like it's not flipping


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 10, 2017, 02:09:16 AM
From the 2013 election, There were appox. 1600 absentee ballots in Comox Valley (2013 boundaries) , giving the NDP a slight edge. (780/712).  This does not include Special ballots or voting in a returning office.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 02:09:50 AM
This source has Queensborough finished with a 300 vote Liberal lead http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_Party.html

edit: it registered on CBC now


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: BigSkyBob on May 10, 2017, 02:10:17 AM
NDP slowly climbing in Richmond-Queensborough, but with 8 polls left, I'm not sure if it's enough

Done. Liberal by 263


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 02:12:47 AM
Pretty amazing how close the seat count is given the large LIB vote share lead.

There were more votes counted in the safe Liberal ridings than in the other ridings at that time.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: BigSkyBob on May 10, 2017, 02:18:59 AM
Liberal ahead by 559 with one box to go in Vancouver False Creek

By 560 after all boxes.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 02:20:51 AM
Liberals could win 44 in the end due to absentee ballots from Comox. I guess it depends on if military personnel votes count as advance or absentee.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 02:21:52 AM
Quote
Military have something called Statement of Ordinary Residence, which means their ballots are counted as advance, not absentee.
This was being put on reddit, is it true?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Babeuf on May 10, 2017, 02:26:39 AM
Horgan upstaging Weaver right now, if it was intentional, is... not the smartest NDP strategy if they want to govern.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 02:32:27 AM
Two points I didn't see mentioned on separate topics about this election:

1.The absentee/early votes won't be counted for a full two weeks.  They are counted at the same time as  the totals are certified which may mean a recount of all the ballots in each riding (I forget if that's the case or not.)

Anyway, in 2013 there were around 160,000 of these ballots.  So, with 87 ridings, that's an average of 2,000 votes per riding. So, whatever you hear about a media organization calling a candidate a winner tonight in a very close riding, just remember what Yogi Bera said.

In the Comox riding for instance, where the NDP candidate has 'won' by nine votes, the Liberal candidate is the former head of the military base in the riding and there are likely a fair number of absentee military votes to come in.  I guess will find out what the soldiers think of their former boss.

In regards to which party these votes normally favor, it's different per riding but it doesn't often result in a change of the winner.  But, it might!  In 1986, Social Credit lead in 2 ridings that they ended up losing.    That was an earlier absentee vote process called a 'Section 80 vote.'  Darlene Marzari of the NDP won in Vancouver-Point Grey after narrowly 'losing' on election night to the nasty Social Credit M.L.A Pat McGeer.  A second New Democrat also won after 'losing' on election night, but, like Rick Perry, I can't remember who.

An interesting note about that is that the election night result was 49 Social Credit and 20 NDP and the final result was 47-22.  Premier Bill Vander Zalm who at that time was still the media darling played a little game with the media as he wrote on a card sealed in an envelope predicting the result but told the media not to open the envelope until the end of the night of the election. His prediction was 47-22.

For those interested, Pat McGeer was a longtime M.L.A who was part of the B.C Liberal caucus from 1972-1975 that joined Social Credit.  He is a brilliant medical researcher who is also highly arrogant and insensitive.  As Advanced Education minister he once said "young people who would like to go to University but can't afford it just have to understand they have to save up for it first."  (I don't dispute there is some truth to that but it's also a 'let them eat cake type comment as obviously it's those who can't afford to go to college who most need the boost from getting a degree.)

He recently returned to the news when he wrote a ridiculous op/ed in favor of keeping whales in captivity.  He wrote 'as much as we like to think we know what whales are thinking, that's nothing but anthropomorphizing them.  Also, when I see them doing their performances, they look happy to me."

He was brilliantly ripped apart by an animal researcher who pointed out that the only value of studying whales in captivity is to find out about other whales in captivity.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 02:36:15 AM
In 2005, the NDP received more of the votes not counted on election day than the B.C Liberals but ended up losing two seats they had 'won' on election night.  These were two ridings where the NDP incumbent defeated in 2001 ran again in 2005: Tim Stevenson in a Vancouver riding and Pietro Calendino in a Burnaby riding.

I don't believe the outstanding votes have resulted in a riding change since then, maybe Selina Robinson in Coquitlam-Maillardville in 2013.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 02:37:22 AM
I feel it's certain that there will be an early election next time. I mean even if Liberals pick up Comox one vacancy will wipe out that majority.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 02:43:44 AM
2.I didn't read all the comments but I didn't see this mentioned here, but this stuck out as much to me as the gains by the Green Party: the growing split between Greater Vancouver which trended heavily towards the NDP, and the Interior which trended heavily towards the B.C Liberals.

It's actually not really accurate to call The Interior 'rural' as there are three fairly large cities in the Interior:  Kelowna (2011 population of  117,312), Kamloops (85,678) and Prince George (71,974)

Their is also a separate city (suburb) of West Kelowna (Christy Clark's riding) which has a population of around 30,000.


In the Lower Mainland
The Richmond ridings were the closest they've been since 1979 when there was just the one Richmond riding.  The NDP vote in Richmond went up by around 10% from the 2013 election.  I don't know if that was just part of the general trend, the sense from Richmond voters that they had been taken for granted by the B.C Liberals, or even that the longer the Richmond Chinese population integrates into Richmond and Canada, the more they start voting like the general population.

Edit: Vosem commented on this, but I don't think Vosem noticed the full extent of the diverging trends.  I don't think the NDP gained in a single Interior/North riding, and they lost two more of these ridings: Columbia River-Revelstoke (maybe partially due to the weakness of the terrible NDP candidate) and Skeena.  The NDP is now down to just five interior ridings including Powell River-Sunshine Coast.  So, Liberals 20 NDP 5.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 02:50:57 AM
This might be useful for getting a grasp on the Comox absentee ballots: https://twitter.com/darcyriddell/status/862197362210385920


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 02:53:16 AM
Election results would come in so much faster if my idea was adopted:  take all the ballots, put them in a big round opaque thing, spin it around, a judge picks out one ballot, whoever got the vote on that ballot wins.

Odds are it will have end up with the same result as the full count.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Cynthia on May 10, 2017, 02:55:53 AM
Election results would come in so much faster if my idea was adopted:  take all the ballots, put them in a big round opaque thing, spin it around, a judge picks out one ballot, whoever got the vote on that ballot wins.

Odds are it will have end up with the same result as the full count.

Depends on the sample size.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 03:14:41 AM
These were the ridings I predicted incorrectly (so far)
1.Columbia River-Revelstoke
2.Courtney-Comox
3.Cowichan Valley (that was the riding where my riding by riding prediction differed from the prediction I sent into CKNW, I predicted the Greens riding by riding)
4.Fraser-Nicola
5.Maple Ridge-Mission
6.North Vancouver-Lonsdale (how did a 31 year old unknown civil engineer win the NDP nomination in this riding and get elected to the legislature?)
7.Port Moody-Coquitlam, (the NDP MLA - bye-election winner-  and popular former mayor couldn't hold this riding in 2013, but the NDP win it now?)
8.Skeena
9.Surrey-Panorama

I post this in this thread, because the five Greater Vancouver ridings here went to the NDP and the three Interior/North ridings went to the Liberals.  Courtney-Comox was a surprise because the riding redistribution heavily favored the Liberals.

These were the ridings that I considered as 'safe' that ended up (so far) very or reasonably close:
1.Langley
2.North Vancouver-Seymour (I thought the Greens would do much better here)
3.Richmond-Queensborough
4.Richmond-South Center
5.Richmond-Steveston
6.Vancouver-False Creek (I thought the Greens would do much better here)

The NDP did much better in all these ridings than I expected

And, ridings that I thought would be close that ended up not being close or not being as close as I thought
1.Cariboo North
2.Penticton
3.Saanich North and the Islands (expected a closer three way race.  We again see that polling in individual ridings is tough to do.)


If Christy Clark resigned, I'd bet the B.C Liberals would regain much of their popularity in Greater Vancouver and would win a comfortable majority in the subsequent election.

I think these are the possible leadership contenders:
Old guard
1.Mike de Jong
2.Rich Coleman (more likely interim leader)
3.Shirley Bond

In the middle
1.Mary Polak
2.Mike Bernier
3.Steve Thomson

Newly elected
1.Peter Milobar, mayor of Kamloops
2.Jas Johal, former Global B.C Reporter (if elected in Richmond-Queensborough)
3.Tracy Redies, former CEO of Coast Capital Credit Union

Personally I quite like Mike Bernier.  I also think former Conservative M.P (and 'Red Tory') James Moore would be an excellent choice but I don't think he's interested.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 05:25:05 AM
Election results would come in so much faster if my idea was adopted:  take all the ballots, put them in a big round opaque thing, spin it around, a judge picks out one ballot, whoever got the vote on that ballot wins.

Odds are it will have end up with the same result as the full count.

Depends on the sample size.

Most B.C ridings have 15,000-20,000 votes. :)

Is that a large enough sample size?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 10, 2017, 07:20:14 AM
Even if the Liberals do end up winning Courtenay-Comox, they have to pick a speaker, and then it's boom, back to a minority. Unless they convince one of the Greens to be speaker, which I wouldn't rule out because I wouldn't put it past Weaver to stick it to the NDP one more time.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 10, 2017, 07:32:06 AM
In the end the polls were highly accurate most had it 41-40 for the NDP and it ends up behind 41-40 for the Liberals which is well within the margin of error and perfectly acceptable. There was no error like in 2013.

Riding polls on the other hand were a total fiasco. Main Street did four riding polls that were all spectacularly wrong. They had Liberals incumbents ahead by quite a bit in delta north and Surrey Fleetwood and both were trounced. They had the Liberal 35 ahead Fraser-Nicola...they eked outa win by 5 points and they had the Liberal narrowly ahead in Saanich north, he came in a distant third.

Oracle did t do so well either. They had the Liberal leading in Comox-Courtenay by 18% and the NDP won it by 9 votes! They had the Green a distant third in Cowichan Valley, she ended up winning quite handily.

I don't think I've ever seen an election where riding polls were so consistently dead wrong


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on May 10, 2017, 07:41:12 AM
I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if absentee change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

I think the Greens are in a tough spot now; Policy wise its clear they have much more in common with the NDP. BUT Weaver and I assume even Horgan don't much like each other.  


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 10, 2017, 07:51:10 AM
I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if advances change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

Only absentee ballots are left, advance ballots are already counted. Typically there are only a few hundred absentee ballots per riding so only Comox realistically could flip - but note the NDP won absentees there in 2013.
edit: There were more absentees than I thought - 1600 in Comox last time, so they could flip some other ridings, although it's unlikely.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on May 10, 2017, 08:08:39 AM
I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if advances change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

Only absentee ballots are left, advance ballots are already counted. Typically there are only a few hundred absentee ballots per riding so only Comox realistically could flip - but note the NDP won absentees there in 2013.

Thanks, meant absentee... so at best Commox-Courtesy and maybe Maple Ridge - Mission if there were a larger number of absentee. Looks like in 2013 in Comox-Courtney there were about 1600? https://twitter.com/DarcyRiddell


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 10, 2017, 08:18:00 AM
I think  a few ridings are so close the advances might matter;

Courtney-Comox (9 votes, NDP)
Maple Ridge - Mission (120 votes, NDP)
Coquitlam - Burke Mountain (170 votes, BCL)
Richmond - Queensborough (263 votes, BCL)
Vancouver-False Creek (560 votes, BCL)

So... if advances change these ridings and swing NDP they have 44, Swing BCL they have 45. Both could then govern alone no?

I think most other were now around the 1000 vote range difference so might not be in play.

Only absentee ballots are left, advance ballots are already counted. Typically there are only a few hundred absentee ballots per riding so only Comox realistically could flip - but note the NDP won absentees there in 2013.

NDP won absentees, yes (despite losing the riding), but also redistribution made the riding more Liberal.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on May 10, 2017, 10:59:50 AM
Another note; 3 of the 4 NDP losses; Columbia River-Revelstoke, Cowichan Valley and Skeena are all riding's where the incumbent NDP MLA did not run again. Food for though, would the NDP have held these had the incumbents run again?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 10, 2017, 11:13:12 AM
Another note; 3 of the 4 NDP losses; Columbia River-Revelstoke, Cowichan Valley and Skeena are all riding's where the incumbent NDP MLA did not run again. Food for though, would the NDP have held these had the incumbents run again?

Probably. Except for the 2001 Liberal landslide, the NDP had held all three seats since 1991.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 10, 2017, 12:45:53 PM
I wonder if the unlamented "Lotuslander" will ever grace these pages again. He must feel totally disgraced and humiliated by the results and how totally wrong virtually all of his pontificating turned out to be...


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on May 10, 2017, 01:09:01 PM
If the seat count stays as is, the diversity of the two Caucus look like this: (feel free to verify, I eye-balled it)

BCNDP - 41
Women - 19, 46%
Visibly Minority - 12, 29%
LGBT - 4, 10%

BCLiberal - 43
Women - 13, 30%
Visible Minority - 5, 12%
Physical Disability - 1, 2%

People can discuss the NDP's internal nomination process's but its hard to argue with the results when about half the MLAs elected are women and almost half come from minority communities.  


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 10, 2017, 02:12:24 PM
If the seat count stays as is, the diversity of the two Caucus look like this: (feel free to verify, I eye-balled it)

BCNDP - 41
Women - 19, 46%
Visibly Minority - 12, 29%
LGBT - 4, 10%

BCLiberal - 43
Women - 13, 30%
Visible Minority - 5, 12%
Physical Disability - 1, 2%

People can discuss the NDP's internal nomination process's but its hard to argue with the results when about half the MLAs elected are women and almost half come from minority communities.  


Also of note from the diversity aspect, there are four MLAs in the new legislature of indigenous background: 2 New Democrats (Carole James and Melanie Mark), 1 Liberal (Ellis Ross), and 1 Green (Adam Olson).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 10, 2017, 02:57:05 PM
If the seat count stays as is, the diversity of the two Caucus look like this: (feel free to verify, I eye-balled it)

BCNDP - 41
Women - 19, 46%
Visibly Minority - 12, 29%
LGBT - 4, 10%

BCLiberal - 43
Women - 13, 30%
Visible Minority - 5, 12%
Physical Disability - 1, 2%

People can discuss the NDP's internal nomination process's but its hard to argue with the results when about half the MLAs elected are women and almost half come from minority communities.  


I was trying to count up who was LGBT in the NDP caucus. I could think of Chandra Herbert, Farnsworth, Elmore...and who is the fourth one?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 03:32:27 PM
Numerical analysis Part 1
These are based on the numbers from the Elections B.C Website when there were still about 40 total polls outstanding.  Almost final election night totals.  

Vancouver: 230,559
Liberal 79,522, 34.5%
N.DP 117,871, 51.1
Green  30,134, 13.1
Other    3,032

Lower Mainland (Burnaby, Tri Cities, Delta, New Westminster, North/West Vancouver, Richmond)
Total 390,581
Liberal 159,681, 40.9%
N.D.P 163,334, 41.8
Green   57,418, 14.7
Other 10,148

Surrey 175,904
Liberal 73,069 41.5%
N.D.P 80,137 45.6
Green 18,771 10.7
Other   3,927

Fraser Valley (Abbotsford,, Chilliwack, Langley, Maple Ridge)
Total 199,294
Liberal 97,388, 48.9%
N.D.P 66,668, 33.5
Green  29,069,14.6

Southern Interior
(Kootenays, Kamloops, Okanagan, Fraser-Nicola)
Total 296,374
Liberal 147,892,49.9%
N.D.P   89,327,30.1
Green    50,420,17.0
Other      8,735

North (Cariboo, North West, Prince George - including Nechako Lakes, Peace River, Powell River-Sunshine Coast)
Total 141,602
Liberal71,539, 50.5%
N.D.P 49,720 35.1%
Green 14,056   9.9%
Other    6,287

Southern Vancouver Island (Victoria, Saanich, Oak Bay, Langford, Esquimalt)
Total 181,294
Liberal 43,813, 24.2%
N.D.P 76,498, 42.2
Green  59,020, 32.6
Other    1,963

Northern Vancouver Island
Total 181,736
Liberal 61,114, 33.6%
N.D.P 72,919, 40.1
Green  42,092, 23.2
Other    5,611


--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Greater Vancouver (AKA Metro Vancouver) 48 ridings
Total 996,338
Liberal 409,660,41.1%
N.D.P 428,010,43.0
Green 135,392,13.6
Other   23,276

Total North and Interior  25 ridings
Total 437,976
Liberal 219,431, 50.1%
N.D.P 139,047, 31.7
Green   64,476, 14.7
Other   15,022  


Total Vancouver Island 14 ridings
Total 363,030
Liberal 104,927, 28.9%
N.D.P 149,417, 41.2
Green 101,112, 27.9
Other     7,574


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 03:34:26 PM
Numerical Analysis Part 2
Closest Ridings - less than 5%
1.Courtney-Comox, 37.1% NDP, 37.1 Liberal
2.Maple Ridge Mission, 41.5% NDP, 41.0 Liberal
3.Coquitlam-Burke Mountain, 44.4% Liberal, 43.6 NDP
4.Richmond-Queensborough, 41.7% Liberal, 40.3 NDP
5.Vancouver-False Creek, 42.6% Liberal, 40.0 NDP
6.Vancouver-Fraserview, 47.9% NDP, 43.2 Liberal
7.Fraser-Nicola, 42.4% Liberal, 37.6 NDP

Highest Vote Share
Liberal
1.Peace River South 75.6% (no Green Party candidate)
2.Peace River North 66.3 (no Green Party candidate)
3.Kelowna-Lake Country 60.1
4.Kelowna West, 59.6
5.Cariboo-Chilcotin, 58.8
6.Prince George-Valemount, 58.7
7.West Vancouver-Capilano, 57.7
8.Kelowna-Mission, 57.6 (oddly named riding, obviously not connected to Fraser Valley's Mission)
9.Prince George-Mackenzie, 57.3
10.Vancouver-Quilchena, 56.8
11.Kamploops-South Thompson, 56.6
12.Kootenay East, 56.6
13.Shuswap, 56.1
14.Nechako Lakes, 54.5 (Liberals usually do better here, I assume the nearby Site C Dam may have reduced their vote)
15.Langley East, 53.9 (First Fraser Valley riding!)
16.Penticton, 53.6
17.Chilliwack-Kent, 53.5
18.Skeena, 53.2 (but, no Green Party candidate) (Gain from NDP)
19.Richmond North Centre, 53.0
20.Abbotsford South, 52.8

N.D.P
1.Vancouver-Mount Pleasant, 64.9%
2.Vancouver-West End, 61.3
3.Vancouver-Kingsway, 60.1
4.Kootenay West, 59.7
5.Vancouver-Hastings, 59.4
6.Surrey-Whalley, 58.4
7.Surrey-Green Timbers, 58.2
8.North Coast, 57.5
9.Surrey-Newton, 57.4
10.Port Coquitlam, 55.5
11.Vancouver-Point Grey, 55.1
12.Vancouver-Kensington, 54.9
13.Burnbaby-Edmonds, 53.7
14.Vancouver-Fairview, 53.6
15.Surrey-Fleetwood, 53.4 (Gain from Liberal)
16.Victoria-Swan Lake, 53.4
17.Victoria-Beacon Hill, 52.9
18.Langford-Juan de Fuca, 52.8
19.New Westminster, 51.6
20.Stikine, 51.2 (no Green Party candidate)

Green
1.Oak Bay-Gordon Head 51.9%
2.Saanich North and the Islands 41.7
3.Cowichan Valley, 37.2
4.Victoria-Beacon Hill, 30.3
5.Victoria-Swan Lake, 29.9
6.West Vancouver-Sea to Sky, 28.7
7.Nelson-Creston, 27.9
8.Parksville-Qualicum 25.6
9.New Westminster, 25.4
10.Saanich South, 25.2
11.Esquimalt-Metchosin, 24.8
12.Powell River-Sunshine Coast, 24.1
13.Nanaimo-North Cowichan, 23.7
14.Vernon-Monashee, 21.4
15.Kamloops-South Thompson, 20.5
16.Mid Island-Pacific Rim, 20.3
17.Kamloops-North Thompson, 20.2
18.Nanaimo, 19.7
19.West Vancouver-Capilano, 19.2
20.Kelowna-Lake Country, 19.2 (no Green Party candidate  :D)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 10, 2017, 03:38:21 PM
obligatory map

()


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 03:47:20 PM
Homer Simpson channels Andrew Weaver on the Green Party election results
https://youtu.be/R_rF4kcqLkI?t=1m44s


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 10, 2017, 04:05:40 PM
All votes except absentee ballots have now been counted: 1,799,355 votes.  Any chance it gets to 2,000,000?

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_Party.html

As it says on the website, that number is only the valid votes cast.  So, the number of people who cast a ballot is greater than that.  Anybody know how many spoiled ballots there usually are?

I think it's possible about 2 million cast a ballot. If only there weren't well over 3 million eligible voters.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 10, 2017, 06:51:02 PM
lolbc


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 11, 2017, 02:06:30 AM
Haha. I see the NDP cultists continue to inhabit this site. C'est la vie. Nothing like a major BC poli site (whereby I have been a mem for over 10 years) inhabited by centre-left/centre/centre-right folk sans the NDP cultists akin to here. It is what it is.

Now back to regularly scheduled programming...

BC hasn't seen a minority since 1952 - 65 years ago when W.A.C. Bennett and the Socreds first came on the BC political scene. Somewhat unchartered territory for BC in terms of political history.

Interior BC saw swing toward BC Libs while Metro Van inner belt saw swing toward the NDP with BC NDP taking all of the BC Lib-held swing seats. Still analyzing/digesting the whole matter.

In terms of popular vote share (with changes from 2013):

BC Libs: 41% (-3%)
BC NDP: 40% (+-0%)
BC Greens 16.7% (+8.6%)
BC Cons: 0% (although likely ~0.3%) (-4.5%)

Prima facie, overall provincially, the BC Greens were the beneficiary of the 2017 vote loss by the BC Libs/BC Cons from 2013. But voter migration modeling is much more complex than that. Just keeping it simple.

My fave riding in 2013 was Saanich North & the Islands (long-time BC Lib riding) - a true 3-way race whereby each party received ~1/3 vote. Here are 2017 results (2013 changes in brackets):

BC Green: 41.7% (+9.7%)
BC NDP: 30.3% (-3%)
BC Lib: 26.9% (-6.1%)

As seen in many ridings across BC, here the BC Greens took twice as many disaffected 2013 BC Lib votes v. BC NDP voters. Something I suspect that BC Green leader Andrew Weaver is cognizant of.

Now we come to the 2017 election high-profile riding of Courtenay-Comox. After redistribution/boundary changes, this riding was a relatively safe BC Lib seat based upon 2013 transposed results. 2017 result with 2013 transposed result changes:

BC NDP: 37.15% (+1.8%)
BC Lib: 37.12% (-10.7%)
BC Green: 18.1% (+7%)
BC Con: 7.6% (+1.7%)

Looks like both the BC Cons and esp. the BC Greens took a chunk of 2013 BC Lib vote in this riding. Now the BC NDP leads by 9 votes at initial count. BTW, the BC Cons took 2,061 votes here last night.

Another 176,000 special ballots, absentee ballots and similar category ballots will be tabulated and included in final results in two weeks time, which equates to ~2,000 votes per riding.

The BC NDP had a net gain of 25 votes in this final count in 2013 under the old Comox Valley riding boundaries with strong BC NDP areas Denman/Hornby Isles and Cumberland since removed.

If the BC Libs win this seat after final recount, other recounts, then the BC Libs have squeaked by a bare majority of 44 seats to 43 seats for the combined opposition BC NDP/ BC Greens. But even that is problematic for the BC Liberals. The BC Liberals win need to appoint a speaker leaving a 43-43 tie vote in the legislature albeit the Speaker can break that tie vote under most circumstances.

Further problems arise... if one BC Lib MLA is sick, in the hospital, dies, stuck in traffic, etc. and unable to make a key vote in the legislature such as a Throne Speech, monetary bill, etc. with the opposition showing up - the gov't could fall (I don't know if Speaker is able to tie a vote under those circumstances).

OTOH, if the BC NDP retains Courtenay-Comox after final recount we are left with 43 BC Libs, 41 BC NDP, and 3 BC Greens.

So what happens next? Clark is still the preem. Weaver is now the king-maker and has numerous options at his disposal.

Weaver has a few options:

1. BC Greens act as opposition without formal support for BC Libs/BC NDP without bringing down minority gov't - abstaining from voting on monetary bills in exchange for some compromises (my gut instinct);

2. BC Greens form accord with either BC Libs/BC NDP - problematic for numerous reasons - his 2017 voters and potential pitfalls at next election siding with one side or the other;

3. BC Greens form coalition with one party or other - when gov't falls, BC Greens likely to be obliterated as these small 3rd parties have experienced obliteration in similar circumstances;

Now let's look at Weaver wants:

1. Ban on corporate/union party funding (non-negotiable) - BC NDP wants a legislative bill whereas BC Libs propose independent panel to review matter for recommendations;

2. PR - BC NDP proposes referendum on their own PR version. BC Libs non-committal;

3. BC Greens currently have 3 MLAs while 4 are required for official opposition party status, which brings additional funding, research staff, etc.

Right now, that's what Weaver has stated what is looking for.

Now who can Weaver work with? Interestingly enough, Global BC's Keith Baldrey interviewed Weaver a few weeks back and Baldrey asked Weaver point blank... "Who will you feel more comfortable supporting in a minority gov't - Clark or Horgan?" Weaver responded that "You're putting me on the spot... Horgan has exploded on me multiple times... he has to control his temper... he doesn't want to bring people to work with him... whereas with Clark you can have a respectful disagreement and it's not personal".

Frankly, that was quite a signal right there and I suspect Weaver is prepared to not oppose the BC Libs governing in minority with Weaver/ BC Greens abstaining from voting on monetary bills, which would bring down the gov't. Of course, with the BC Libs agreeing to his 3 main conditions listed above.

Just speculation and conjecture on my part. Weaver could support Horgan and BC NDP as well.

Minority gov'ts also have a shelf life up to 18 months and highly likely that we will be in election mode within that time frame. No party will attempt to bring down a minority gov't... during the interim... as the electorate will punish same. We will also likely be in campaign mode - as opposed to actual governing over the next 18 months as well - considerable political uncertainty as well.

Moreover, seems like the BC Libs still have a large war chest while the BC NDP/BC Greens have depleted their financial resources.

Interestingly enough, Insights West released an opinion poll today focused, in part, upon this topic...

Quote
In the online survey of a representative sample of British Columbians who cast a ballot in the provincial election, more than half of voters said they would feel upset if the BC Liberals assembled a majority (57%) or minority (53%) government. Similarly high proportions of voters would feel upset if the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) were to govern in a majority (52%) or minority (50%) scenario.

A formal coalition government with the BC Liberals and the BC Green Party would upset 49% of voters, while (45%) would be upset with a formal coalition government featuring the BC NDP and the Greens.

Suspect Weaver will walk a fine-line moving forward. My 2 cents.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on May 11, 2017, 06:11:42 AM
If the seat count stays as is, the diversity of the two Caucus look like this: (feel free to verify, I eye-balled it)

BCNDP - 41
Women - 19, 46%
Visibly Minority - 12, 29%
LGBT - 4, 10%

BCLiberal - 43
Women - 13, 30%
Visible Minority - 5, 12%
Physical Disability - 1, 2%

People can discuss the NDP's internal nomination process's but its hard to argue with the results when about half the MLAs elected are women and almost half come from minority communities.  


I was trying to count up who was LGBT in the NDP caucus. I could think of Chandra Herbert, Farnsworth, Elmore...and who is the fourth one?

Nicholas Simons, was very open but low key about it when he had a short- lived run for leader in 2011 (dropped out to endorse Horgan)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 11, 2017, 07:25:43 AM
Actually the NDP has 5 LGBT MLAs, an article in the Georgia Straight mentioned Jennifer Rice as well


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on May 11, 2017, 08:13:21 AM
Haha. I see the NDP cultists continue to inhabit this site. C'est la vie. Nothing like a major BC poli site (whereby I have been a mem for over 10 years) inhabited by centre-left/centre/centre-right folk sans the NDP cultists akin to here. It is what it is.

You're dodging.  To reiterate a point, this is what you predicted

Quote
2017 popular vote share:

BC Lib: 42%
BC NDP: 35%
BC Green: 20%
Other: 3%

... give or take a couple of points.

2017 seat share:

BC Lib: 55 - 65
BC NDP: 20 - 25
BC Green: 1 - 5


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 11, 2017, 09:07:31 AM
I'll hopefully make some swing maps at some point, but in the meantime, this is a pretty interesting chart:

()

Any reason for the large swing in Richmond?

ETA: Looks like a lot of that swing may have come from the Conservatives :o


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Zanas on May 11, 2017, 09:18:16 AM
I can't begin to fathom why 15% of the voters would cast a useless vote for the Greens when NDP is an available alternative. Canada is just weird sometimes.
Says the only Hamon voter in all of France...


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 11, 2017, 09:18:27 AM

Any reason for the large swing in Richmond?


Richmond is heavily, heavily Chinese and even though in terms of average income its no richer than Surrey (which is heavily South Asian and is more NDP-friendly) it has traditionally been an NDP dead zone because the NDP didn't have much support in the Chinese community. If you look at household income and being a inner suburb of Vancouver, were it not for the Chinese factor, Richmong OUGHT to be as NDP-friendly as Surrey! so the gains there are a bit of a reversion to the mean

That seems to have changed this time. If you look at how the NDP picked up Fraserview and Burnaby North (both of which have large Chinese populations) and gained so much ground in all four Richmond seats, I suspect that as the Chinese community matures and assimilates politically it is starting to hedge its bets politically and the taboo on voting NDP is wearing off. Now that the NDP has elected four Chinese-Canadian MLAs, I expect the NDP to target Richmond heavily next time and to have much more credibility in that community.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 11, 2017, 09:32:01 AM
One note about polling in the BC election. We were treated to lots of pontificating about how "only traditional CATI polls are of any value" and about how any poll done by IVR or based on an online panel was supposedly a "worthless junk poll".

In the end, the CATI polls that were done were actually the WORST! Final online and IVR polls all more or less nailed it the province-wide vote as dead even or a 1 point gap. The only outlier was the CATI by Innovative which had the BC Liberals 5 points ahead. The only other CATI polling i saw was a series of four riding polls by Oracle all on Vancouver Island...each of which grossly overestimated BC Liberal support.

Can we finally put to bed this notion that only CATI polls are the "gold standard" and that everything else is worthless. It clearly isnt true anymore. i acknowledge that mainstreet's riding polls by IVR were also all dreadful - but a growing challenge in doing riding polls in urban ridings is the impossibility of getting riding based cell phone numbers.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 11, 2017, 10:33:12 AM
I can't begin to fathom why 15% of the voters would cast a useless vote for the Greens when NDP is an available alternative. Canada is just weird sometimes.
Says the only Hamon voter in all of France...

I'd argue there's less of a difference between the NDP and the Greens than between Hamon and Melanchon!


Any reason for the large swing in Richmond?


Richmond is heavily, heavily Chinese and even though in terms of average income its no richer than Surrey (which is heavily South Asian and is more NDP-friendly) it has traditionally been an NDP dead zone because the NDP didn't have much support in the Chinese community. If you look at household income and being a inner suburb of Vancouver, were it not for the Chinese factor, Richmong OUGHT to be as NDP-friendly as Surrey! so the gains there are a bit of a reversion to the mean

That seems to have changed this time. If you look at how the NDP picked up Fraserview and Burnaby North (both of which have large Chinese populations) and gained so much ground in all four Richmond seats, I suspect that as the Chinese community matures and assimilates politically it is starting to hedge its bets politically and the taboo on voting NDP is wearing off. Now that the NDP has elected four Chinese-Canadian MLAs, I expect the NDP to target Richmond heavily next time and to have much more credibility in that community.

Well yes, obviously the Chinese vote is shifting, which I find very interesting. I know they have a populist streak, remember how much they voted against the HST in the referendum?

One note about polling in the BC election. We were treated to lots of pontificating about how "only traditional CATI polls are of any value" and about how any poll done by IVR or based on an online panel was supposedly a "worthless junk poll".

In the end, the CATI polls that were done were actually the WORST! Final online and IVR polls all more or less nailed it the province-wide vote as dead even or a 1 point gap. The only outlier was the CATI by Innovative which had the BC Liberals 5 points ahead. The only other CATI polling i saw was a series of four riding polls by Oracle all on Vancouver Island...each of which grossly overestimated BC Liberal support.

Can we finally put to bed this notion that only CATI polls are the "gold standard" and that everything else is worthless. It clearly isnt true anymore. i acknowledge that mainstreet's riding polls by IVR were also all dreadful - but a growing challenge in doing riding polls in urban ridings is the impossibility of getting riding based cell phone numbers.

Indeed, many CATI polls do not use cell sample, and people with landlines are going to skew heavily Liberal.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 11, 2017, 01:10:27 PM
One note about polling in the BC election. We were treated to lots of pontificating about how "only traditional CATI polls are of any value" and about how any poll done by IVR or based on an online panel was supposedly a "worthless junk poll".

In the end, the CATI polls that were done were actually the WORST! Final online and IVR polls all more or less nailed it the province-wide vote as dead even or a 1 point gap. The only outlier was the CATI by Innovative which had the BC Liberals 5 points ahead. The only other CATI polling i saw was a series of four riding polls by Oracle all on Vancouver Island...each of which grossly overestimated BC Liberal support.

Can we finally put to bed this notion that only CATI polls are the "gold standard" and that everything else is worthless. It clearly isnt true anymore. i acknowledge that mainstreet's riding polls by IVR were also all dreadful - but a growing challenge in doing riding polls in urban ridings is the impossibility of getting riding based cell phone numbers.

To be precise though, all of that pontificating came from our resident troll. 


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 11, 2017, 01:21:29 PM

Any reason for the large swing in Richmond?


Richmond is heavily, heavily Chinese and even though in terms of average income its no richer than Surrey (which is heavily South Asian and is more NDP-friendly) it has traditionally been an NDP dead zone because the NDP didn't have much support in the Chinese community. If you look at household income and being a inner suburb of Vancouver, were it not for the Chinese factor, Richmong OUGHT to be as NDP-friendly as Surrey! so the gains there are a bit of a reversion to the mean

That seems to have changed this time. If you look at how the NDP picked up Fraserview and Burnaby North (both of which have large Chinese populations) and gained so much ground in all four Richmond seats, I suspect that as the Chinese community matures and assimilates politically it is starting to hedge its bets politically and the taboo on voting NDP is wearing off. Now that the NDP has elected four Chinese-Canadian MLAs, I expect the NDP to target Richmond heavily next time and to have much more credibility in that community.

I commented on this previously.  I wrote there were three primary possibilities (or a combination of 'all of the above')
1.The Chinese community becoming more integrated with the general community.

2.The general swing in Metro Vancouver to the NDP

3.A sense from all voters in Richmond that they had been taken for granted by the B.C Liberals.  I was at the NDP office on election night and in their concession speeches both defeated candidates Kelly Greene and Chak Au mentioned that.  So, it's likely that was something they had heard on the door step.

In addition to the not very popular in Richmond Massey Bridge Replacement and the school closures (which was the reason for Kelly Greene's entry into politics) there may have been some unhappiness with Jas Johal being appointed as the B.C Liberal candidate (both due to the lack of a nomination and that he doesn't live in the riding or in Richmond or New Westminster) and the extra sense with some Richmondites of 'time for a change' with Linda Reid who was first elected back in 1991.

This is especially the case with Linda Reid in that there is a sense that despite her lengthy service of 'what has she done for us?" as well of, obviously  'she's nothing but a hack career politician.'

In regards to Johal, it will be interesting to see how he did in the Richmond part of the riding vs. how he did in the New Westminster part of the riding.

Johal is ahead by over 250 votes, but with the absentee votes still to be counted there is a very slim possibility he could lose.  I wouldn't expect it, but it's a possibility.

Based on the 2015 Federal Election results there certainly is no indication that Richmond is becoming any more NDP ideologically.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 11, 2017, 01:44:37 PM
One explanation for the upset win of Bowinn Ma in North Vancouver-Lonsdale is that the outgoing Liberal MLA, Naomi Yamamoto, was hurt by the "I am Linda" incident.

On the video after Christy Clark quickly walked away (ran away?) from the Linda person who wanted to tell Clark why she'd never vote for her, Yamamoto apparently gave Linda a very nasty glare/stare.

I don't think this would have become anywhere near the issue it did if the B.C Liberals did not put out the ridiculous allegation that Linda was somehow an NDP plant.  Christy Clark further compounded that by claiming that Linda said that she had never voted for the B.C Liberals when all she, in fact, said was "I'd never vote for you."

I wouldn't say Christy Clark was intentionally lying there because I know memory is a strange thing, but why did she and the B.C Liberals feel any need to respond to this incident in the first place?

Another reason that may have been a bigger cause - this riding which is based in the City of North Vancouver - and is home to many renters, may have not been too happy with Christy Clark's opposition to the NDP promise of a $400 a year rent subsidy on the basis that 'people want help moving to homes and don't want to stay renting.'

I think most renters probably agreed with Horgan when he said (this wasn't his exact reply but it summed up his position) "people want help with addressing their present situation."

Also, I always find this interesting:

When a tax increase of say $400 a year is proposed right wing politicians and their advocacy group enablers refer to it as a 'massive tax increase.'

When a tax cut (or subsidy) of $400 is proposed many politicians and advocacy group enablers of all stripes refer to it as 'an insignificant cut worth $1 a day."


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 11, 2017, 02:09:40 PM
Should the Liberals form the next government and not in a formal coalition with the Greens, I would certainly suggest to them that they appoint more MLAs from Metro Vancouver to the cabinet.  The "woefully underused MLAs Sam Sullivan and Marvin Hunt" (quote from David Schreck from before the election) should be two obvious considerations.  Sam Sullivan was a one term mayor of Vancouver and Hunt was a Surrey City Councilor and chair of the GVRD.

My proposed B.C Liberal cabinet (9 MLAs from Metro Vancouver, 9 MLAs from North/Interior - including Christy Clark - and the one from Vancouver Island, ,not including Donna Barnett.)

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Christy Clark
2.Finance/House Leader, Mike de Jong
3.Economic Development and Trade, Shirley Bond
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Jane Thornthwaite
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Teresa Watt
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Steve Thomson
7.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Rich Coleman
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Norm Letnick
9.Environment, Mary Pollack
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Todd Stone
11.Citizen Services, Innovation and Technology, Sam Sullivan
12.Human Resources and Housing, Michelle Stilwell
13.Children and Family Development, Stephanie Cadieux
14.Education, Mike Bernier
15.Advanced Education and Training, Mike Morris
16.Health, Coralee Oakes
17.Municipal Affairs, Marvin Hunt
18.Aboriginal Relations, John Rustad
19.Justice and Public Safety, Andrew Wilkinson

1.Minister of State for Rural Development, Donna Barnett

On the one hand I could see an interest in Christy Clark promoting some of the high profile new MLAs to cabinet - Ellis Ross who gained an open NDP riding in Skeena, Peter Milobar the popular mayor of Kamloops, Tracy Redies the CEO of Coast Capital Savings Credit Union, or Jas Johal, but with the Liberals in such a precarious position, it would also be very difficult to drop any current ministers from the cabinet.

Dropped minister "What's the Mr Whip, you need me for a vote, cough cough.  I seem to have just gotten a cold, sorry but it's best I not go to the legislature."

The actual outgoing cabinet has 21 senior positions with two others who were ministers of state, but I think the easiest thing for Christy Clark to do would be to just tell her new MLAs that 'there will be future cabinets.'

Shirley Bond gets trade from Teresa Watt because Bond is Economic Development Minister and this requires a top minister due to Trump.

Jane Thornthwaite is promoted to cabinet as Tourism minister as she represents tourist economy communities in North Vancouver.

Teresa Watt is from heavily recent immigrant Richmond.

Steve Thomson important to keep a steady hand at Forestry with the softwood lumber issue.

Rich Coleman takes over from retiring Bill Bennett. Energy is an important issue with the Site C Dam going ahead and with the negotiations over the Columbia River Treaty.  Merging Coleman's Natural Gas portfolio back into the larger ministry would also be an acknowledgment that LNG development is mostly a fantasy.

Sam Sullivan is promoted to cabinet.  His riding has many 'knowledge workers.'

Marvin Hunt is promoted to cabinet.

Andrew Wilkinson takes over from the defeated Suzanne Anton.  Wilkinson is one of the few lawyers in cabinet, and was a prominent and highly regarded person prior to getting into politics (in addition to being a top person at the B.C Civil Liberties Association, he is also a Rhodes Scholar, a medical doctor and was a Deputy Minister in the Gordon Campbell government. ) Unfortunately, just like the once highly regarded Chris Alexander, Wilkinson seemed to have a personality transplant after getting elected and became a partisan attack dog and hack government lying enabler.

The Justice Ministry which is supposed to be somewhat nonpartisan would be an opportunity for him to redeem himself.  I heard him in a fairly lengthy radio interview yesterday morning on CBC and he came across as much more reasonable and is clearly highly intelligent.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on May 11, 2017, 06:17:22 PM
One note about polling in the BC election. We were treated to lots of pontificating about how "only traditional CATI polls are of any value" and about how any poll done by IVR or based on an online panel was supposedly a "worthless junk poll".

In the end, the CATI polls that were done were actually the WORST! Final online and IVR polls all more or less nailed it the province-wide vote as dead even or a 1 point gap. The only outlier was the CATI by Innovative which had the BC Liberals 5 points ahead. The only other CATI polling i saw was a series of four riding polls by Oracle all on Vancouver Island...each of which grossly overestimated BC Liberal support.

Can we finally put to bed this notion that only CATI polls are the "gold standard" and that everything else is worthless. It clearly isnt true anymore. i acknowledge that mainstreet's riding polls by IVR were also all dreadful - but a growing challenge in doing riding polls in urban ridings is the impossibility of getting riding based cell phone numbers.

To be precise though, all of that pontificating came from our resident troll. 

To repeat what he predicted...

Quote
2017 popular vote share:

BC Lib: 42%
BC NDP: 35%
BC Green: 20%
Other: 3%

... give or take a couple of points.

2017 seat share:

BC Lib: 55 - 65
BC NDP: 20 - 25
BC Green: 1 - 5

Hey, Lotuslander was grandiosely declaring himself the expert of all experts.  He, and only he, knew the way things were going; the rest of us were NDP snowflakes.

And, look what happened to this so-called "expert".  Blown credibility in an instant.  *Nobody's* gonna take that putz seriously anymore.  He's no winner; he's just a bum--*regardless* of whether the BC Liberals get their majority in the end.

()

Wonder if he'll be hiding in the bushes, Sean Spicer-style...




Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 11, 2017, 10:02:01 PM
Haha. Posters here are always entertaining. Love it. But caveat emptor.

Van Sun's Vaughn Palmer, Global BC's Keith Baldrey & Globe and Mail's Justine Hunter have been live on Shaw TV over the past hour discussing the BC election. Lottsa interesting nuggets, which now provides some logical sense as a backdrop into Metro Vancouver's 2017 results.

For example, just Surrey, a major municipality in Metro Vancouver... the BC Libs lost ~20,000 votes compared to the 2013 BC election. So what happened to these votes in 2017? While some went to the BC NDP, more went to the BC Greens, while the majority just stayed home. Never saw that coming.

Again, that's just Surrey.

It's known as drilling down into the numbers and voter migration.

And yep. CATI is the gold standard in BC. Bar none. ;)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 11, 2017, 11:07:31 PM
BCNDP's vote percentage only went up by 0.15%. Whatever they gained from the Liberals they lost an equal amount to the Greens.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: rob in cal on May 12, 2017, 12:01:58 AM
  This must be one of the best seat % wins by a Green Party anywhere in the world in a system using FPTP. Hopefully that doesn't make them lose their intensity of support for PR.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on May 12, 2017, 12:15:56 AM
Haha. Posters here are always entertaining. Love it. But caveat emptor.

Van Sun's Vaughn Palmer, Global BC's Keith Baldrey & Globe and Mail's Justine Hunter have been live on Shaw TV over the past hour discussing the BC election. Lottsa interesting nuggets, which now provides some logical sense as a backdrop into Metro Vancouver's 2017 results.

For example, just Surrey, a major municipality in Metro Vancouver... the BC Libs lost ~20,000 votes compared to the 2013 BC election. So what happened to these votes in 2017? While some went to the BC NDP, more went to the BC Greens, while the majority just stayed home. Never saw that coming.

Again, that's just Surrey.

It's known as drilling down into the numbers and voter migration.

And yep. CATI is the gold standard in BC. Bar none. ;)


You don't get it.  And all you're doing is offering post-mortem banalities courtesy of Shaw TV (much of which has already been gone over in this thread, so it isn't exactly *new* to us, at least through deductive reasoning), trying to cover up and deflect from your incompetent quackery in the name of election forecasting.  I mean, you are to election forecasting what Lyle Lanley is to monorails...

()


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 12, 2017, 01:02:54 AM
One note about polling in the BC election. We were treated to lots of pontificating about how "only traditional CATI polls are of any value" and about how any poll done by IVR or based on an online panel was supposedly a "worthless junk poll".

In the end, the CATI polls that were done were actually the WORST! Final online and IVR polls all more or less nailed it the province-wide vote as dead even or a 1 point gap. The only outlier was the CATI by Innovative which had the BC Liberals 5 points ahead. The only other CATI polling i saw was a series of four riding polls by Oracle all on Vancouver Island...each of which grossly overestimated BC Liberal support.

Can we finally put to bed this notion that only CATI polls are the "gold standard" and that everything else is worthless. It clearly isnt true anymore. i acknowledge that mainstreet's riding polls by IVR were also all dreadful - but a growing challenge in doing riding polls in urban ridings is the impossibility of getting riding based cell phone numbers.

To be precise though, all of that pontificating came from our resident troll. 

To repeat what he predicted...

Quote
2017 popular vote share:

BC Lib: 42%
BC NDP: 35%
BC Green: 20%
Other: 3%

... give or take a couple of points.

2017 seat share:

BC Lib: 55 - 65
BC NDP: 20 - 25
BC Green: 1 - 5

Hey, Lotuslander was grandiosely declaring himself the expert of all experts.  He, and only he, knew the way things were going; the rest of us were NDP snowflakes.

And, look what happened to this so-called "expert".  Blown credibility in an instant.  *Nobody's* gonna take that putz seriously anymore.  He's no winner; he's just a bum--*regardless* of whether the BC Liberals get their majority in the end.

Wonder if he'll be hiding in the bushes, Sean Spicer-style...

To be precise, I think you were the only person here who took him seriously before this.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: King of Kensington on May 12, 2017, 02:17:51 AM
What's striking to me in this election is the erosion of the "urban liberal" pillar of the Free Enterprise Coalition over these past two elections.  In terms of their geographic base, Christy Clark's "Liberals" look pretty much identical to Harper's Conservatives in 2008 and 2011, False Creek really being the last of the "federal Liberal" BC Liberal holdouts. 

The "urban pillar" group has really solidified behind the NDP in the past two elections.  David Eby won with a much bigger margin in Point Grey than Gordon Campbell did in 1996, 2005 and 2009, the NDP took Fairview again by a wide margin too and even False Creek was close.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 12, 2017, 04:42:42 AM
What's striking to me in this election is the erosion of the "urban liberal" pillar of the Free Enterprise Coalition over these past two elections.  In terms of their geographic base, Christy Clark's "Liberals" look pretty much identical to Harper's Conservatives in 2008 and 2011, False Creek really being the last of the "federal Liberal" BC Liberal holdouts.  

The "urban pillar" group has really solidified behind the NDP in the past two elections.  David Eby won with a much bigger margin in Point Grey than Gordon Campbell did in 1996, 2005 and 2009, the NDP took Fairview again by a wide margin too and even False Creek was close.

Also Vancouver-Quilchena and in the 2015 Federal election the Liberals won North/West Vancouver by large margins.

Maybe my strong dislike of Christy Clark clouds my judgement here, but I think this is much more of a strong anti Christy Clark government sentiment than a shift of Federal Liberals to the N.D.P based on changing ideology.

Our resident troll often quotes Keith Baldrey and I remember after the 2013 election when after nearly 3/4 of Christy Clark's cabinet was either from the Fraser Valley or from the Interior/North (around half the cabinet was from the Interior/North even though they had just 25 of the then 85 seats in the legislature) and Baldrey said something like "Vancouver shouldn't be surprised that it was punished after it voted out two Liberals."

And then after that came the disaster of Peter Fassbender as both education minister and municipal affairs/Translink Minister.  

Given that there isn't a bottomless pit of money to spend, I can sympathize with the government for the spending restraint in education, especially since the education outcomes for average students are very good based on rankings from standardized tests (the higher intelligence and the lower intelligence special needs students are the ones who seem to be getting shafted) and I believe the Vancouver School Board was much more to blame for its conflict with the province, but as Translink Minister, both he and before him Todd Stone certainly seemed to go out of their way to pick fights with the mayor's council forcing them into a referendum at the same time as allocating basically the same amount of money the referendum would have allowed to be collected in taxes on the ridiculously expensive George Massey Bridge that only one mayor wants.  

Throw in the housing affordability issue that the Christy Clark government for whatever reason was extremely slow to address, and essentially Vancouver and other parts of Greater Vancouver decided to punish Christy Clark in return.

I would think that if Christy Clark resigned as Premier and was replaced by a centrist Liberal like Mike Bernier that the B.C Liberals would regain a number of Greater Vancouver ridings in a subsequent election and return with a comfortable majority.

The view is that in many ridings the increase in the Green vote was a result of past B.C Liberal voters who couldn't take any more of Christy Clark but couldn't bring themselves to vote for the NDP parking their vote with the Greens.  The B.C NDP for the fourth straight election has basically stalled at 40% of the vote.

Of course, part of this view is likely based on the need for so many pundits to keep churning out the lazy conventional wisdom that the 'NDP can only win (or come close to winning) when the free enterprise coalition is split' so these new Green voters MUST be former Liberals.  For example, there is a ridiculous claim that the Green Party did not split the centre/left vote and take ridings form the NDP. The NDP candidates in the former NDP ridings of Saanich North and the Islands and Cowichan Valley might disagree with that.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 12, 2017, 06:24:51 AM
Imho the BC Liberals under Christy Clark do get some vestigial support from federal Liberal types because it's common knowledge that Christy and her dead-beat ex-husband and most of her inner circle all dyed in the wool federal Liberals. She is constantly playing up her close ties to Justin Trudeau and on top of that stylistically with her flashy clothes and smug sh**t eating smile, Clark looks like a classic federal Liberal.

What happens if the next BC Liberal leader is a right wing federal Conservative like Kevin Falcon who is from central casting as a Tory? I wonder if that would be a signal to a lot of federal Liberals who still have some "brand loyalty" to the Liberal part of BC Liberal that the charade is over and that the party really is just another Conservative party?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: King of Kensington on May 12, 2017, 11:31:44 AM
Also Vancouver-Quilchena and in the 2015 Federal election the Liberals won North/West Vancouver by large margins.

Again, said Harper's Conservatives in 2008 and 2011.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 12, 2017, 07:53:04 PM
Also Vancouver-Quilchena and in the 2015 Federal election the Liberals won North/West Vancouver by large margins.

Again, said Harper's Conservatives in 2008 and 2011.

Oops. Sorry :(



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on May 12, 2017, 10:48:03 PM
To be precise, I think you were the only person here who took him seriously before this.

Lotuslander owes you money, remember.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 12, 2017, 11:21:51 PM
Haha. Why do NDP zealots/flakes continue to troll this thread? We have "Adma", from Ontario, a 5-hour flight away from BC, who knows absolutely nothing about BC politics and has contributed absolutely nothing to this BC election thread except to troll - part of the "NDP is a church" crowd - the Christian Heritage Party types on the left. No analytical skills whatsoever.

We have "Adam T" who claims to reside in the east Richmond neighbourhood of Hamilton... yet is/was unaware that neighbouring Queensborough is part of New Westminster earlier herein - about a 15-second drive down the 91 Fwy. Every dummy in Metro Vancouver is aware of same. Sigh.

As for the poster "DL" herein, Bryan Breguet, who runs the well known site "Too Close to Call"... on Twitter today expressly told "DL":

Quote
Bryan Breguet‏ @2closetocall  9h

Making sh**t up to fit your narrative now?

I will leave it at that.

Now back to the current 2017 outcome and various potential political permutations.

Even if Courtenay-Comox (which BC NDP won by 9 votes) doesn't flip from the BC NDP to BC Libs after final recount (another ~2,000 votes), etc. a BC NDP/BC Green combination will still only add up to 44 seats v. 43 for the Libs. Such a combination will also require a speaker appointed leaving 43 - 43 tie votes in the legislature. If just one BC NDP/BC Green MLA fails to show up for a confidence vote, throne speech vote, monetary bill, etc. then the gov't falls. No stability there.

Under that scenario, if the gov't falls, that does not necessarily mean a new election. The lieutenant-governor could appoint the BC Libs as gov't if she believes they have the confidence of the house (that BC Greens will then support them).

Now some political history with narrow BC gov't MLA margins. Back in the 1979 BC election, the outcome 31 Socreds v. 26 NDP. With a speaker appointed from Socred benches leaving a 4 seat majority. Even then, at one point, the gov't almost fell in a confidence vote as some Socred MLAs were either sick, unable to attend, etc.

After the 1996 BC election, the BC NDP had 39 seat to 36 seat opposition. With a speaker appointed, the BC NDP had a 2 seat majority. During one key confidence vote, the 5-minute vote warning bell was ringing in the legislature. Then BC preem Glen Clark ran toward the doors of the legislative house, but was too late. Doors had already been locked for voting - it was a tie and the speaker broke the tie.

Again, a BC NDP/BC Green combo would always result in a tie vote. An "unstable" proposition.

OTOH, a combined BC Lib/BC Green vote would be 46 - 41 and bring more "stability". The BC Libs could also govern as a minority akin to the 2004/2006/2008 fed Con minority gov'ts. The fed Libs did not prop them up - they just abstained from voting to prevent the gov't from falling resulting in a new election.

Former well-known UVic prof Norman Ruff from earlier yesterday, who is also known to have soft-centre-left leanings (BTW, his wife ran for the BC NDP in a Greater Victoria area riding during the 1972 BC election):

Quote
BC Greens most likely to side with Liberals in a minority government: UVIC professor

Vancouver, BC, Canada / News Talk 980 CKNW | Vancouver's News. Vancouver's Talk
Emily Lazatin
Posted: May 11, 2017 02:34 pm

A professor emeritus of political science at the University of Victoria says even if the Greens and the NDP have more common ground on key issues, if B.C. stays as a minority government, Andrew Weaver will most likely side with the Liberals.

Norman Ruff says it all comes down to pushing through votes at legislature, adding that the Green Party will want to be part of an effective government.

He says it comes down to math, saying it’s easier to get everyone to show up at legislature when you’ve got 46 people versus 44 people if the Greens teamed up with the NDP.

He explains from the side of a Liberal-Green perspective.

“You give one out to the speaker, it makes it 45 to 41. It’s still very narrow, people get sick, or people get caught up and don’t make it and vote, so it’s still very precarious,” says Ruff.

“It means when you take a vote and everyone is in the house, the probability of winning is extremely high.”

Ruff says for the Greens it’s what makes the most sense to get things done.

http://www.cknw.com/2017/05/11/bc-greens-most-likely-to-side-with-liberals-in-a-minority-government-uvic-professor/

And tonight, in a Globe & Mail article, BC Green leader Andrew Weaver is quoted as follows:

Quote
Mr. Weaver said the Greens would assist one party with “a stable government,” and would “ensure that we would provide confidence to govern.”

There are the words again... "stable gov't".

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/weaver-charts-path-to-green-party-support/article34981079/




Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 13, 2017, 04:00:36 AM
Haha. Why do NDP zealots/flakes continue to troll this thread? We have "Adma", from Ontario, a 5-hour flight away from BC, who knows absolutely nothing about BC politics and has contributed absolutely nothing to this BC election thread except to troll - part of the "NDP is a church" crowd - the Christian Heritage Party types on the left. No analytical skills whatsoever.

We have "Adam T" who claims to reside in the east Richmond neighbourhood of Hamilton... yet is/was unaware that neighbouring Queensborough is part of New Westminster earlier herein - about a 15-second drive down the 91 Fwy. Every dummy in Metro Vancouver is aware of same. Sigh.

Now back to the current 2017 outcome and various potential political permutations.

Even if Courtenay-Comox (which BC NDP won by 9 votes) doesn't flip from the BC NDP to BC Libs after final recount (another ~2,000 votes), etc. a BC NDP/BC Green combination will still only add up to 44 seats v. 43 for the Libs. Such a combination will also require a speaker appointed leaving 43 - 43 tie votes in the legislature. If just one BC NDP/BC Green MLA fails to show up for a confidence vote, throne speech vote, monetary bill, etc. then the gov't falls. No stability there.

Under that scenario, if the gov't falls, that does not necessarily mean a new election. The lieutenant-governor could appoint the BC Libs as gov't if she believes they have the confidence of the house (that BC Greens will then support them).

Now some political history with narrow BC gov't MLA margins. Back in the 1979 BC election, the outcome 31 Socreds v. 26 NDP. With a speaker appointed from Socred benches leaving a 4 seat majority. Even then, at one point, the gov't almost fell in a confidence vote as some Socred MLAs were either sick, unable to attend, etc.

After the 1996 BC election, the BC NDP had 39 seat to 36 seat opposition. With a speaker appointed, the BC NDP had a 2 seat majority. During one key confidence vote, the 5-minute vote warning bell was ringing in the legislature. Then BC preem Glen Clark ran toward the doors of the legislative house, but was too late. Doors had already been locked for voting - it was a tie and the speaker broke the tie.

Again, a BC NDP/BC Green combo would always result in a tie vote. An "unstable" proposition.

OTOH, a combined BC Lib/BC Green vote would be 46 - 41 and bring more "stability". The BC Libs could also govern as a minority akin to the 2004/2006/2008 fed Con minority gov'ts. The fed Libs did not prop them up - they just abstained from voting to prevent the gov't from falling resulting in a new election.

Former well-known UVic prof Norman Ruff from earlier yesterday, who is also known to have soft-centre-left leanings (BTW, his wife ran for the BC NDP in a Greater Victoria area riding during the 1972 BC election):

Quote
BC Greens most likely to side with Liberals in a minority government: UVIC professor

Vancouver, BC, Canada / News Talk 980 CKNW | Vancouver's News. Vancouver's Talk
Emily Lazatin
Posted: May 11, 2017 02:34 pm

A professor emeritus of political science at the University of Victoria says even if the Greens and the NDP have more common ground on key issues, if B.C. stays as a minority government, Andrew Weaver will most likely side with the Liberals.

Norman Ruff says it all comes down to pushing through votes at legislature, adding that the Green Party will want to be part of an effective government.

He says it comes down to math, saying it’s easier to get everyone to show up at legislature when you’ve got 46 people versus 44 people if the Greens teamed up with the NDP.

He explains from the side of a Liberal-Green perspective.

“You give one out to the speaker, it makes it 45 to 41. It’s still very narrow, people get sick, or people get caught up and don’t make it and vote, so it’s still very precarious,” says Ruff.

“It means when you take a vote and everyone is in the house, the probability of winning is extremely high.”

Ruff says for the Greens it’s what makes the most sense to get things done.

http://www.cknw.com/2017/05/11/bc-greens-most-likely-to-side-with-liberals-in-a-minority-government-uvic-professor/

And tonight, in a Globe & Mail article, BC Green leader Andrew Weaver is quoted as follows:

Quote
Mr. Weaver said the Greens would assist one party with “a stable government,” and would “ensure that we would provide confidence to govern.”

There are the words again... "stable gov't".

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/weaver-charts-path-to-green-party-support/article34981079/

1.I never said I reside in the Richmond neighborhood of Hamilton.  The first part of analytical skills is being able to take in information correctly and you can't even do that.

Given that you trolled me earlier on twitter, I suspect you may be on some other fishing expedition here.  I'm not the type to hide in a safe space, but I am suspicious of what you're up to here.

Again, I ask the mod here, please ban this troll Lotuslander.

2.I thought this was a very good letter to the editor in the Richmond News, Friday May 12, 2017

Dear Editor,
So yet another vitriolic B.C election is over, and the NDP, despite coming so close, appear to have fallen short yet again.

Despite the fact that Premier Christy Clark (a person, who, in my opinion, is totally devoid of empathy, has no morals or ethics, has been totally corrupted by big money, and is on loose terms with the truth and facts) appears to have, subject to recounts and absentee votes, at minimum, secured a minority mandate, the NDP may be better off coming up a bit short.

Take the economy.

B.C has led the country for the last two years in economic growth.  During the election, Clark was claiming that the Conference Board of Canada indicated that B.C would also lead the country in economic growth at 2.4%, in 2017.  This statistic was also quoted by the Vancouver Sun in their endorsement of Clark the day before the election.  However both the Sun and Clark (again showing her loose association with the truth) failed to acknowledge that the Board had revised their growth prediction for B.C to 1.9% (fourth in the country.) It should be noted that the current budget is pedicated on growth of 2.3%

The reduced growth projection for 2017, and subsequent years, will result in less government revenue and reduced (if any) job growth.  This, of course, will mean a deficit budget or reduced expenditure (with the Liberals this means cuts to the most vulnerable in society.)

Under Clark, both ICBC and B.C Hydro have been reduced to financial basket cases.  Both are losing massive amounts of money.

It has been speculated that ICBC rates could increase as much as 42% over the next few years.

B.C Hydro may be in even worse shape, given that Moody's Investments Services is considering downgrading its investment rating.

Under the Liberals, Hydro has created deferral accounts that now total almost $6 billion, by far the most of any North American utility.  That money eventually needs to be repaid.

The deferral accounts give the allusion that B.C Hydro is making a profit and thus need to pay a dividend to the government.  The fact is Hydro does not make a profit and has to borrow money (from the government) to pay the government a dividend.

The NDP's election promise to freeze hydro rates for a year may be good politics, but it is incredibly bad policy. The bills eventually have to be paid.

A day of reckoning is coming for both ICBC and B.C Hydro.  The result will be massive cost increases to British Columbians regardless of who is in power.

The Vancouver Convention Center, B.C Place Renovation, South Fraser Perimeter Road, North West Transmission Line, Port Mann Bridge Extension and the Evergreen Line Extension are all, among other projects, initiated by the B.C Liberals that have one thing in common: they were all delivered late and massively over budget.  The same situation applies to almost every I.T project initiated by the Liberals.

Why should we believe that Site C and the Massey Bridge will be any different?

If the NDP was in government when the bills come due, they would be tarred with the fallout (after all, they are still vilified by the B.C Liberals for alleged sins in a previous century) and would spend another 20 years in the political wilderness.

The NDP is best letting the B.C Liberals take the heat for the mess they created.
-Al Williams


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 13, 2017, 05:02:06 AM

1.I never said I reside in the Richmond neighborhood of Hamilton.

Haha. You are nothing more than a complete and utter flake. You incessantly post that you have "put me on your Ignore List" yet, every time I post herein... you deceive everyone... you have not put me on your "Ignore List". You always respond to my posts. Typical fringe "Jehovah's Witness Sect" NDPer. Weird and bizarre.

Now you even deceive again. The only residential neighbourhood in East Richmond IS Hamilton! Any dummy in Metro Vancouver is aware of that as well FFS.

From our discussion herein on November 11, 2015:

Quote
Lotuslander: "Sorry, But that is hyper-partisan BS. Aren't you the same guy who resides in east Richmond and didn't even know that Queensborough is part of NW or something to that effect?"

Adam T: "Yes, of course, you left out that the reason you know that is because I disclosed it. I live in East Richmond but not very close to New Westminster.  I knew that part of Lulu Island was not in Richmond but I did not know that was the part.  Were it not for the relatively new construction in the Hamilton area, I wouldn't even have had a reason to know that Queensborough exists."

Google is my friend. Caught ya in another deceitful episode irrespective of your bafflegab. BTW, I have zero tolerance for both deceitful folk as well as NDP "cultists" akin to yourself. Don't EVER want to see you respond to me ever again. Capiche?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 13, 2017, 06:43:47 AM
I will make five quick points:

1. Even if the Liberals manage to flip a seat on a recount and get a 1 seat majority, it will be a very unstable government with the speaker always having to break ties, but then again under Christy Clark the legislature meets so seldom and the government has had such a thin legislative agenda that she could probably just have the legislature meet once a year and roll all her crap into one omnibus bill to avoid multiple votes that could bring down the government. While it's conceivable that Greens could make a deal to support a Liberal minority, there is no way they will help prop up a Liberal majority. Why would they? Clark is t going to make policy concessions to the Greens if she doesn't think she has to and Weaver already knows that if he makes any kind of deal with the BC Liberals support for his party would quickly drop to low single digits as Weaver becomes the Nick Clegg of BC

2. The kegislature has to elect a speaker before any confidence vote takes place so all parties will be taking a gamble if they let one of their people be speaker

3. If Clark presents a throne speech and the NDP and Greens vote it down and announce they have an agreement, the LG would almost certainly ask Horgan to form a government. (See what happened under similar circumstances in Ontario in 1985). If on some later date that government lost a confidence the LG would not go back to the Liberals and ask them to try again, they already had their chance. Instead it would lead to a snap dissolution. However chances are that even a short lived NDP Green govt would very quickly pass an immediate ban on corporate and union donations and likely a very very low cap on election campaign spending which would eliminate the Liberal money advantage in the next election. They may well also quickly bring in PR which would essentially lock the BC Liberals out of power forever and throw away the key

4. If Weaver does pull a Nick Clegg and backs Christy Clark, it's hard to imagine the Liberals tossing him more than a few very meager bones. The NDP can eat popcorn watching the Greens self-destruct as they face mass resignations from their members horrified to see their party prop up the hated BC Liberals

5. Let's not forget that the knives are already out for Christy Clark in her own party. She was never popular in her own caucus and party and the consensus seems to be that she blew it with a very weak campaign and that her personal unpopularity is the reason the Liberals almost lost. Her days as leader of the Liberals are likely numbered.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 13, 2017, 06:48:16 AM
To add to what DL said it would be a ridiculously unstable government if every backbencher with a grievance can hold the government hostage.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 13, 2017, 12:03:45 PM
Is it possible that some of the more right wing members of the Liberal caucus may make things difficult vis-a-vis working with the Greens?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 13, 2017, 01:20:05 PM

1.I never said I reside in the Richmond neighborhood of Hamilton.

Haha. You are nothing more than a complete and utter flake. You incessantly post that you have "put me on your Ignore List" yet, every time I post herein... you deceive everyone... you have not put me on your "Ignore List". You always respond to my posts. Typical fringe "Jehovah's Witness Sect" NDPer. Weird and bizarre.

Now you even deceive again. The only residential neighbourhood in East Richmond IS Hamilton! Any dummy in Metro Vancouver is aware of that as well FFS.

From our discussion herein on November 11, 2015:

Quote
Lotuslander: "Sorry, But that is hyper-partisan BS. Aren't you the same guy who resides in east Richmond and didn't even know that Queensborough is part of NW or something to that effect?"

Adam T: "Yes, of course, you left out that the reason you know that is because I disclosed it. I live in East Richmond but not very close to New Westminster.  I knew that part of Lulu Island was not in Richmond but I did not know that was the part.  Were it not for the relatively new construction in the Hamilton area, I wouldn't even have had a reason to know that Queensborough exists."

Google is my friend. Caught ya in another deceitful episode irrespective of your bafflegab. BTW, I have zero tolerance for both deceitful folk as well as NDP "cultists" akin to yourself. Don't EVER want to see you respond to me ever again. Capiche?

I've explained to you three times already about when I decide to look at your posts.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 13, 2017, 08:50:35 PM
To add to what DL said it would be a ridiculously unstable government if every backbencher with a grievance can hold the government hostage.

You need to look no further than the Turnbull Government in Australia sitting on a one seat majority. 

Just in my opinion, a government is in a slightly better position sitting in a minority versus a tiny majority as they can (rightly or wrongly) claim they simply cannot implement their agenda on certain issues. When government backbenchers really do have the power to control the numbers on their own, they are much less forgiving of such excuses.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on May 13, 2017, 09:43:56 PM
I've explained to you three times already about when I decide to look at your posts.

But again...

Quote
2017 popular vote share:

BC Lib: 42%
BC NDP: 35%
BC Green: 20%
Other: 3%

... give or take a couple of points.

2017 seat share:

BC Lib: 55 - 65
BC NDP: 20 - 25
BC Green: 1 - 5

Lotuslander's technique, as you see, is *do not acknowledge failure*.  *Do not acknowledge that you flopped in your forecast*, even if your blowhard manner of proclaiming your expertise practically *demands* greater scrutiny than the norm.  And when the flop's brought to your attention, then double down on the "NDP zealots/flakes" invective, i.e. the accusers are a bunch of loser poopy-pants.

Incidentally, on LL's 2017 election blog, he offers this

Quote
As an aside, 7 – 10 days prior to the 2013 BC provincial election, based upon 4 key public (albeit obscure) data points, I comfortably predicted that the BC Liberals already had 43/85 seats won for a majority government. Just did not have enough data to expand on that 43 seat number.

So, if he was so against-the-grain close to the mark in 2013, what happened in 2017?!?

(Then again, he clearly ran out of gas re sustaining said blog:  5 posts, including analyses of only Burnaby and Surrey, and nothing after March 5 but a CATI-cheerleading polling-methodology post from April 30.  I guess it's only within a pack of granola-munching NDP cheerleaders like ourselves that he can overcompensatingly feel like he's Grand Poobah or something)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 14, 2017, 02:53:56 AM
I've explained to you three times already about when I decide to look at your posts.

But again...

Quote
2017 popular vote share:

BC Lib: 42%
BC NDP: 35%
BC Green: 20%
Other: 3%

... give or take a couple of points.

2017 seat share:

BC Lib: 55 - 65
BC NDP: 20 - 25
BC Green: 1 - 5

Lotuslander's technique, as you see, is *do not acknowledge failure*.  *Do not acknowledge that you flopped in your forecast*, even if your blowhard manner of proclaiming your expertise practically *demands* greater scrutiny than the norm.  And when the flop's brought to your attention, then double down on the "NDP zealots/flakes" invective, i.e. the accusers are a bunch of loser poopy-pants.

Incidentally, on LL's 2017 election blog, he offers this

Quote
As an aside, 7 – 10 days prior to the 2013 BC provincial election, based upon 4 key public (albeit obscure) data points, I comfortably predicted that the BC Liberals already had 43/85 seats won for a majority government. Just did not have enough data to expand on that 43 seat number.

So, if he was so against-the-grain close to the mark in 2013, what happened in 2017?!?

(Then again, he clearly ran out of gas re sustaining said blog:  5 posts, including analyses of only Burnaby and Surrey, and nothing after March 5 but a CATI-cheerleading polling-methodology post from April 30.  I guess it's only within a pack of granola-munching NDP cheerleaders like ourselves that he can overcompensatingly feel like he's Grand Poobah or something)

As always, we seem to disagree with how seriously to take anything he writes.

And, as always, it would be helpful if the moderators here simply banned him because he is clearly a troll whether anything he writes should be taken seriously or not.

I note also, the moderators may not want to ban him because he seems to add some valuable points to the discussion.  In reality, I've noticed that all the stories he posts here that may seem like interesting trivia or valuable knowledge are all taken from articles printed in the day's newspaper (like the story he posted on Glen Clark being on the wrong side of the legislative door.)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 14, 2017, 11:43:09 AM
Guys, as a troll he is only going to be fueled by us endlessly discussing his terrible analysis. Let's just ignore him and discuss the results ok?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 14, 2017, 02:51:21 PM
Guys, as a troll he is only going to be fueled by us endlessly discussing his terrible analysis. Let's just ignore him and discuss the results ok?

I agree, but there were some things that had to be cleared up first.

Like which types of polling is best and, if it's one of the reasons that the troll hasn't been banned from here, that he really isn't an expert on British Columbia political history, but that he just regurgitates trivia from the articles in the day's newspapers.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 17, 2017, 09:07:16 AM
Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Holmes on May 17, 2017, 09:31:09 AM
Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

Well I'm shocked.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 17, 2017, 09:57:30 AM
Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

If that were to happen I think it would quickly be Andrew Weaver personally selling his soul to the BC Liberals...the party could well revolt against his leadership and force him to sit as an independent. The other two Green MLAs could end up being a caucus of two.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 17, 2017, 10:20:35 AM
Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

Well I'm shocked.

Can't tell if this is sarcasm or not. It should be though. I am not shocked in the least.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 17, 2017, 02:32:55 PM
Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

I doubt it.  Andrew Weaver is publicly keeping his options open so as to maximize his bargaining position.  That is smart strategy on his part.  He has said that he has three non-negotiable demands: 1.official party status, 2.a removal of corporate and union donations.  3.Proportional representation in some way.

Demand '3' is incorrectly not reported by some in the media, because while his first two positions are absolute, he is willing to negotiate over proportional representation to some degree.  He said that he wants a proportional representation voting system for the next election, but that he is willing to have a referendum on it, after it has been tried out for this next election.  That was the same proposal that Nathan Cullen came up with federally.

What the B.C Liberals would get in return for agreeing to this, I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if these rumors of a coalition with the Liberals are nothing more than New Democrats trying to shame Weaver into giving up negotiating with the B.C Liberals so as to weaken the Green Party bargaining position.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 17, 2017, 03:15:09 PM
In the same vein Adam, are those nonnegotiables actually nonegotiable? I can see Weaver overstating things so he can fall back to his actual nonnegotiables.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 17, 2017, 04:25:26 PM
If BC actually did move to proportional representation - how long before the BC Liberals would split into two parties - a Conservative party and a Liberal Party. There would no longer be any incentive for this uneasy marriage of convenience to continue


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on May 17, 2017, 06:52:23 PM
If BC actually did move to proportional representation - how long before the BC Liberals would split into two parties - a Conservative party and a Liberal Party. There would no longer be any incentive for this uneasy marriage of convenience to continue

IIRC there was a lot of churn in parties when NZ implemented PR. I'd guess something would break off almost immediately.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on May 17, 2017, 10:10:23 PM
And remember how Vision Vancouver came about, municipally speaking.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 18, 2017, 06:20:03 AM
Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

I doubt it.  Andrew Weaver is publicly keeping his options open so as to maximize his bargaining position.  That is smart strategy on his part.  He has said that he has three non-negotiable demands: 1.official party status, 2.a removal of corporate and union donations.  3.Proportional representation in some way.

Demand '3' is incorrectly not reported by some in the media, because while his first two positions are absolute, he is willing to negotiate over proportional representation to some degree.  He said that he wants a proportional representation voting system for the next election, but that he is willing to have a referendum on it, after it has been tried out for this next election.  That was the same proposal that Nathan Cullen came up with federally.

What the B.C Liberals would get in return for agreeing to this, I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if these rumors of a coalition with the Liberals are nothing more than New Democrats trying to shame Weaver into giving up negotiating with the B.C Liberals so as to weaken the Green Party bargaining position.

The funny thing is, those three items could easily be in an NDP platform.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 18, 2017, 07:27:03 AM
Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

I doubt it.  Andrew Weaver is publicly keeping his options open so as to maximize his bargaining position.  That is smart strategy on his part.  He has said that he has three non-negotiable demands: 1.official party status, 2.a removal of corporate and union donations.  3.Proportional representation in some way.

Demand '3' is incorrectly not reported by some in the media, because while his first two positions are absolute, he is willing to negotiate over proportional representation to some degree.  He said that he wants a proportional representation voting system for the next election, but that he is willing to have a referendum on it, after it has been tried out for this next election.  That was the same proposal that Nathan Cullen came up with federally.

What the B.C Liberals would get in return for agreeing to this, I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if these rumors of a coalition with the Liberals are nothing more than New Democrats trying to shame Weaver into giving up negotiating with the B.C Liberals so as to weaken the Green Party bargaining position.

The funny thing is, those three items could easily be in an NDP platform.

Banning corporate and union donations and proportional representation are.  I'm sure the problem is that a 44-43 NDP/Green government would be very unstable.  So, I can understand why Weaver would prefer to be with a 46-41 Liberal led government as long as the Green Party gets its major demands met.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 18, 2017, 08:55:51 AM
Rumours the Greens and Liberals might form a coalition. LOL at all you Green leftists who were duped into voting for them!

I doubt it.  Andrew Weaver is publicly keeping his options open so as to maximize his bargaining position.  That is smart strategy on his part.  He has said that he has three non-negotiable demands: 1.official party status, 2.a removal of corporate and union donations.  3.Proportional representation in some way.

Demand '3' is incorrectly not reported by some in the media, because while his first two positions are absolute, he is willing to negotiate over proportional representation to some degree.  He said that he wants a proportional representation voting system for the next election, but that he is willing to have a referendum on it, after it has been tried out for this next election.  That was the same proposal that Nathan Cullen came up with federally.

What the B.C Liberals would get in return for agreeing to this, I don't know, but I wouldn't be surprised if these rumors of a coalition with the Liberals are nothing more than New Democrats trying to shame Weaver into giving up negotiating with the B.C Liberals so as to weaken the Green Party bargaining position.

The funny thing is, those three items could easily be in an NDP platform.

Banning corporate and union donations and proportional representation are.  I'm sure the problem is that a 44-43 NDP/Green government would be very unstable.  So, I can understand why Weaver would prefer to be with a 46-41 Liberal led government as long as the Green Party gets its major demands met.

Why not official party status too? I know it was a big deal with the Ontario NDP in the early 2000s. I remember one MPP threatened to change her name to include "NDP" in protest (so that the speaker would have to say NDP when she was called upon).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 19, 2017, 10:02:05 PM
Even a week after the BC election am still digesting the results and implications of same. The more I review the 2017 results... the more that I am drawn back to a similar minority BC gov't situation back in 1952 - 65 years ago. A good starting point thereto.

As a background, prior to the 1952 BC election, a "Coalition" gov't comprising both BC Liberals as well as BC PCs had governed since 1941. That "Coalition" had disintegrated by the time of the 1952 BC election was held. Both the BC Liberals and BC PCs ran as separate political parties during the 1952 BC election. The then BC Socreds were an unknown upstart without any member of the BC Legislature.

1952 BC election results:

Socred: 19 seats;
CCF (NDP predecessor): 18 seats
Liberal: 6
PC: 4
Ind. Labour - Tom Uphill (long-time BC poli history): 1

As the Socreds won the most seats (under WAC Bennett), they were first in line to form a gov't - a critical matter as if they are unable to have confidence of the house and are defeated, the Lieutenant-Governor requires evidence from another party that they would have the confidence of the house in order for the L-G to grant them authority to form gov't. Otherwise, the L-G has no alternative but to order a new election.

However, the then Socreds were all poli neophytes and the CCF actually slightly won the 1952 popular vote share over the Socreds. Moreover, Ind. Labour candidate Tom Uphill was expected to side with the CCF - resulting in an equal draw. And that was the argument that the then CCF leader brought to the L-G to have a first shot at forming gov't back in 1952. IOW, a 19 Socred + 18 CCF + 1 Ind. Labour equaled a tie.

The additional combined 10 Liberal/PC seats was not material in terms of the L-Gs decision.

WAC Bennett was well aware that the Ind. Labour candidate, Tom Uphill, was extremely unhappy that the CCF ran a candidate against him and that Uphill barely won by 9 votes in the election. WAC Bennett not only foresaw same but also obtained Uphill's agreement that he would support Social Credit's bid to form the government, which evidence was presented to the L-G. IOW, the Socreds had a 2-seat margin over the CCF, aside from the 10 Liberal/PC seats.

Even if the Ind. Labour candidate Tom Uphill had side with the CCF, since the Socreds had a 1-seat majority over the CCF, they still would have been called upon by the L-G to form gov't as the Socreds had the most seats back in 1952. Parliamentary tradition.

9 months later, the combined CCF, Liberals, and PC opposition voted down the Socred minority gov't on a confidence motion (which Socreds fully anticipated). The CCF then went to the L-G stating that Tom Uphill had now backed them to form gov't. To no avail. The L-G dissolved the 1952 BC Legislature and called a new election. The Socreds won a majority gov't with the voters punishing the CCF, Liberals, and PCs.

3 Key takeaways from 1952 BC election aftermath:

1. L-G will always ask the political party with most seats to attempt to form gov't;

2. If gov't defeated, L-G will not grant next party, with most votes in house, to form gov't... unless it has confidence of entire house;

3. Voters will punish any political party that attempts to bring down gov't in short term causing another election;

Fast forward to 2017 assuming that Courtenay-Comox riding does not flip from NDP (9-vote win) to Liberals next week in final count (with ~1,500 - 2,000 absentee/special ballots);

We have:

43 Liberals
41 NDP
3 Greens

Akin to 1952, the Liberals have first opportunity to form gov't due to having most seats. If the minority Liberal gov't is defeated in a subsequent confidence motion, another party has the opportunity to plead to the L-G that they have the "confidence" of the house - a much higher level "test". The key word here is "confidence". IOW, that they will have majority of votes in the house aside from Speaker.

And in BC's current dynamic of a 43 - 43 split (aside from Speaker), the L-G views the Speaker as an independent officer of the legislature (approved by majority legislative support even though elected MLA). Again, if the Liberals are defeated, the L-G views both the Liberals and NDP/Greens as having 43 seats each in the house a "tie". Ergo, the NDP/Greens will not have "confidence of House" to replace Liberals - eg. majority vote (Speaker not relevant here) from the L-Gs perspective..

Completely corroborates constitutional expert Prof Ron Cheffins (who has advised 5 BC L-Gs) analysis that if the Liberals are defeated in a confidence motion... the L-G will order a new election.

Bottom Line? Either Liberal minority gov't or a new election forthwith and voters typically punish political parties that bring fresh elections in the aftermath of a recent election based upon British Parliamentary history.

PS. Startling that BC media are all focused upon what the Greens can obtain from NDP/Liberals in terms of "comprises". At end of day... all a moot point. Nevertheless, Weaver pointed out today that the Liberals will still need their support for stable gov't if Liberals win the 44th seat (Courtenay-Comox) for bare minimum majority. Good point.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 19, 2017, 10:17:35 PM

3. If Clark presents a throne speech and the NDP and Greens vote it down and announce they have an agreement, the LG would almost certainly ask Horgan to form a government. (See what happened under similar circumstances in Ontario in 1985).

Look at the 1985 ON election results:

PCs: 52
Libs: 48
NDP: 25

52 PCs v. 73 Libs/NDP. Ergo, with a Speaker (considered an independent officer of legislature), the Libs/NDP had a 20-vote majority in the house - Lib/NDP accord had "confidence of house" to form gov't  - agreed to by ON L-G.

Now let's look at BC in 2017 (assuming Courtenay-Comox not flipped):

Libs: 43
NDP: 41
Greens: 3

43 Libs v. 44 NDP/Greens. Ergo with Speaker, the NDP/Greens have a "tie" in the legislature with the Libs. IOW, it does not have "the confidence of the house". Will reiterate again, constitutional expert Prof. Ron Cheffins, who has advised 5 BC L-Gs, stated last weekend that if Lib Throne Speech (1st confidence motion) is defeated, the L-G is more than likely to call a new election as any alternative NDP/Green accord (must be in writing) will not have "confidence of the house".

Then legislative matters gets even more interesting. With NDP/Greens appointing the Speaker (considered an independent officer of legislature)... again we have a "tie" in the house.

But what about the "Committee as a Whole" as a result? With a house "tie", the NDP/Greens must also appoint an independent speaker thereto leaving the Libs with a majority therein as a result. I trust that folk here understand the role/significance of the "Committee as a Whole"?! Probably not. The BC L-G (and her constitutional advisors) certainly will though. Grab your bag of popcorn.

Interesting times.

BTW, yesterday, BC NDP leader Horgan told the media:

Quote
New Democrat leader John Horgan says he’s confident he can work with Green Party leader Andrew Weaver after all the election results are in, but he’s also ready to send voters back to the polls – if necessary.

“I’ve got a few bucks in my pocket right now and we’ll see how it goes.

http://www.news1130.com/2017/05/18/ndp-leader-says-hes-ready-whatever-happens-next-week/

Politically dangerous based upon previous election precedents in similar circumstances.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 19, 2017, 10:24:31 PM
Guys, as a troll he is only going to be fueled by us endlessly discussing his terrible analysis. Let's just ignore him and discuss the results ok?

Haha. Comedy central. UNREAL. I have never seen such a pack of ignorant non-BC "NDP trolls/flakes" so apparently threatened by one purportedly measly poster like myself among a large posting net crowd. Just ignore me. Put me on your "Ignore List". Then all is good. ;)

PS. The hardcore NDP "Scientology/Jehovah Witness" sects within the NDP never cease to amaze. Akin to the Christian Heritage Party of "the left".


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 20, 2017, 07:20:58 AM
Another small wrinkle. The legislature has to elect a speaker before anything else happens. The incumbent speaker is Linda Reid who is nominally a Liberal and has been an MLA for over 20 years. She is well liked on both sides of the house and wants to stay on. I can guarantee the if stands in the legislature don't change NO ONE from the NDP or the Greens will stand for election to be speaker against Reid. That means that the NDP plus Greens will have 44 seats and the Liberals will have 42 and there are unlikely to be any tie votes for the speaker to break once the NDP takes power and in any case the speaker has to cast deciding votes with the government...so I could see an NDP government with Green support last at least a few years ...enough time to ban corporate and union donations, drastically reduce campaign spending limits, ban all government advertising, boost the minimum wage to $15, start an inquest into all the corruption under Christy Clark that would likely lead to some arrests AND bring in proportional representation which would change the face of politics forever in BC. Of course it will take a few years to actually implement PR and that will give the Greens a huge incentive NOT to cause an early election since any early election,cation would have to be fought under existing FPTP.

Of course if the absentee count flips a seat all bets are off, but if the standings remain 43-41-3 the above is the scenario I expect


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 20, 2017, 11:09:50 AM
Another small wrinkle. The legislature has to elect a speaker before anything else happens. The incumbent speaker is Linda Reid who is nominally a Liberal and has been an MLA for over 20 years. She is well liked on both sides of the house and wants to stay on. I can guarantee the if stands in the legislature don't change NO ONE from the NDP or the Greens will stand for election to be speaker against Reid. That means that the NDP plus Greens will have 44 seats and the Liberals will have 42 and there are unlikely to be any tie votes for the speaker to break once the NDP takes power and in any case the speaker has to cast deciding votes with the government...so I could see an NDP government with Green support last at least a few years ...enough time to ban corporate and union donations, drastically reduce campaign spending limits, ban all government advertising, boost the minimum wage to $15, start an inquest into all the corruption under Christy Clark that would likely lead to some arrests AND bring in proportional representation which would change the face of politics forever in BC. Of course it will take a few years to actually implement PR and that will give the Greens a huge incentive NOT to cause an early election since any early election,cation would have to be fought under existing FPTP.

Of course if the absentee count flips a seat all bets are off, but if the standings remain 43-41-3 the above is the scenario I expect

Linda Reid is definitely not liked on both sides of the Legislature.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 20, 2017, 11:21:42 AM
I've heard that the NDP don't mind Reid as speaker...and of course the NDP will prefer ANY Liberal to be speaker to giving up a vote from the opposition side


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 20, 2017, 11:28:09 AM
I've heard that the NDP don't mind Reid as speaker...and of course the NDP will prefer ANY Liberal to be speaker to giving up a vote from the opposition side

That could be true.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 20, 2017, 01:31:52 PM
That means that the NDP plus Greens will have 44 seats and the Liberals will have 42 and there are unlikely to be any tie votes for the speaker to break once the NDP takes power and in any case the speaker has to cast deciding votes with the government...so I could see an NDP government with Green support last at least a few years

Ain't gonna happen for reasons posted above.. Either Lib minority gov't or fresh election. That's it.

I suspect that the Libs hope NDP/Greens bring down the gov't on the Throne Speech, which would trigger a new election. Libs have the financial resources on hand for a new election. NDP/Greens don't. Moreover, electorate typically punish political parties that bring down gov'ts very early.

Nevertheless Weaver has already stated the foregoing:

Quote
Mr. Weaver said the Greens would assist one party with “a stable government,” and would “ensure that we would provide confidence to govern.”

Again, only constitutionally possible gov't now is the Libs - whether minority or 1-vote majority. I also suspect that the Greens will abstain from voting on confidence motions to prevent a new election.

Only question now is how long the current legislature will last.




Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 20, 2017, 01:49:06 PM
According to the Lascelles conventions and precedents if the legislature rejects Crooked Christy's Throne Speech on Day 1 then the LG must ask the leader of the second largest party to try to form a government and only if he fails is there a new election.

Btw we are all waiting for you to explain why all your predictions of how this election would go were so totally, wildly WRONG


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 20, 2017, 01:55:47 PM
According to the Lascelles conventions and precedents if the legislature rejects Crooked Christy's Throne Speech on Day 1 then the LG must ask the leader of the second largest party to try to form a government and only if he fails is there a new election.

Again, I will defer to constitutional expert Prof. Ron Cheffins from last weekend who has advised 5 (yes 5) BC L-Gs. If the incumbent party is defeated on the Throne Speech, any other potential gov't between NDP/Greens must be a formal accord, in writing, and must have the "Confidence of the House".

A 43 NDP/Green v. 43 Lib + 1 Ind. Speaker does not have "Confidence of the House". Moreover, the Libs would have a 1-seat majority in the "Committee of the Whole" based upon that scenario. Ergo, that scenario is already D.O.A.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 20, 2017, 02:42:04 PM
What makes you think the speaker would be an opposition MLA? Usually the party with the most seats supplies the speaker and in this case the incumbent speaker Linda Reid the Liberal wants to keep her job


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on May 20, 2017, 10:47:27 PM
Guys, as a troll he is only going to be fueled by us endlessly discussing his terrible analysis. Let's just ignore him and discuss the results ok?

Haha. Comedy central. UNREAL. I have never seen such a pack of ignorant non-BC "NDP trolls/flakes" so apparently threatened by one purportedly measly poster like myself among a large posting net crowd. Just ignore me. Put me on your "Ignore List". Then all is good. ;)

PS. The hardcore NDP "Scientology/Jehovah Witness" sects within the NDP never cease to amaze. Akin to the Christian Heritage Party of "the left".

Memo to moderator: if you need to do selective post deletion (or editing, or probationary measures) in lieu of the outright banning of Lotuslander, use posts/statements like the above as a benchmark.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on May 20, 2017, 10:52:01 PM
According to the Lascelles conventions and precedents if the legislature rejects Crooked Christy's Throne Speech on Day 1 then the LG must ask the leader of the second largest party to try to form a government and only if he fails is there a new election.

Again, I will defer to constitutional expert Prof. Ron Cheffins from last weekend who has advised 5 (yes 5) BC L-Gs. If the incumbent party is defeated on the Throne Speech, any other potential gov't between NDP/Greens must be a formal accord, in writing, and must have the "Confidence of the House".

A 43 NDP/Green v. 43 Lib + 1 Ind. Speaker does not have "Confidence of the House". Moreover, the Libs would have a 1-seat majority in the "Committee of the Whole" based upon that scenario. Ergo, that scenario is already D.O.A.

You deleted the "Btw we are all waiting for you to explain why all your predictions of how this election would go were so totally, wildly WRONG" part.  Just saying.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on May 20, 2017, 11:10:04 PM
According to the Lascelles conventions and precedents if the legislature rejects Crooked Christy's Throne Speech on Day 1 then the LG must ask the leader of the second largest party to try to form a government and only if he fails is there a new election.

Again, I will defer to constitutional expert Prof. Ron Cheffins from last weekend who has advised 5 (yes 5) BC L-Gs. If the incumbent party is defeated on the Throne Speech, any other potential gov't between NDP/Greens must be a formal accord, in writing, and must have the "Confidence of the House".

A 43 NDP/Green v. 43 Lib + 1 Ind. Speaker does not have "Confidence of the House". Moreover, the Libs would have a 1-seat majority in the "Committee of the Whole" based upon that scenario. Ergo, that scenario is already D.O.A.

The convention only states "having the support of the House". There is no consensus between experts on what it means and one has to assume the L-G will ask multiple experts.

All in all, the final result will be influenced by why Greens vote it down and the personal opinion of the L-G (who will have to choose if there is disagreements between experts on what "having the support of the House" mean).

In any case, being a rancher, I would assume she would lean Liberal in any case.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 21, 2017, 09:25:48 AM
Guys, as a troll he is only going to be fueled by us endlessly discussing his terrible analysis. Let's just ignore him and discuss the results ok?

Haha. Comedy central. UNREAL. I have never seen such a pack of ignorant non-BC "NDP trolls/flakes" so apparently threatened by one purportedly measly poster like myself among a large posting net crowd. Just ignore me. Put me on your "Ignore List". Then all is good. ;)

PS. The hardcore NDP "Scientology/Jehovah Witness" sects within the NDP never cease to amaze. Akin to the Christian Heritage Party of "the left".

Memo to moderator: if you need to do selective post deletion (or editing, or probationary measures) in lieu of the outright banning of Lotuslander, use posts/statements like the above as a benchmark.

I see he replied to one of my posts. What's the point? I have him on ignore, so the only way I will see it is if someone else quotes him.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 21, 2017, 03:30:04 PM
What makes you think the speaker would be an opposition MLA? Usually the party with the most seats supplies the speaker and in this case the incumbent speaker Linda Reid the Liberal wants to keep her job

I assume that you are referring to the scenario of a 43 NDP/Green v. 43 NDP + 1 Speaker? If that's the case, let's play "Devil's Advocate" here (aside from Prof. Ron Cheffins constitutional analysis).

Both sides will not cough up a Speaker to the other side. They'd be nuts esp. with a tied dynamic. Speaker's job would likely be brutal and the Parliament would be short lived in any event.

Under that dynamic, the Deputy Speaker would also likely come from the same political side - has no impact in the House, in terms of voting, but the Deputy Speaker chairs the "Committee of the Whole" and only breaks tie votes thereto.

Many here might not understand the role of the "Committee of the Whole" - after any bill is introduced in the legislature (monetary or otherwise), after 2nd Reading bills are then sent to the "Committee of the Whole" for proposed changes/amendments prior to being sent back to the House for final 3rd Reading.

At the "Committee of the Whole" stage, the Libs would have a 1-vote majority - 43 - 42 + Deputy Speaker (Speaker not present). One could literally visualize the Libs completely gutting the NDP/Green bill, with their one vote majority, and turning same into a quasi-Lib bill for final 3rd reading/vote in the House.

Under that scenario what would happen? Would the Libs then vote in favour of the bill at 3rd reading with the NDP/Greens opposing same after all Lib amendments? The Speaker's role is to preserve the "status quo". How does one define "status quo" in this scenario?

Potentially complete legislative paralysis.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on May 21, 2017, 07:44:23 PM
Guys, as a troll he is only going to be fueled by us endlessly discussing his terrible analysis. Let's just ignore him and discuss the results ok?

Haha. Comedy central. UNREAL. I have never seen such a pack of ignorant non-BC "NDP trolls/flakes" so apparently threatened by one purportedly measly poster like myself among a large posting net crowd. Just ignore me. Put me on your "Ignore List". Then all is good. ;)

PS. The hardcore NDP "Scientology/Jehovah Witness" sects within the NDP never cease to amaze. Akin to the Christian Heritage Party of "the left".

Memo to moderator: if you need to do selective post deletion (or editing, or probationary measures) in lieu of the outright banning of Lotuslander, use posts/statements like the above as a benchmark.

I see he replied to one of my posts. What's the point? I have him on ignore, so the only way I will see it is if someone else quotes him.

I thought of him upon reading this...

http://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/5/21/1664423/-Rightwing-Growing-Desperate-for-a-Good-Comedian-Why-Money-Can-t-Buy-Funny?detail=facebook


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on May 21, 2017, 08:46:16 PM
Best analysis/article to date concerning current BC minority gov't situation, with the input of constitutional expert Prof. Ron Cheffins, basically corroborating my previous posts herein:

Quote
Lieutenant-Governor could force new election if Clark loses confidence motion
JUSTINE HUNTER

VICTORIA — The Globe and Mail
Published Sunday, May 21, 2017 9:04PM EDT

It is a rare moment in Canadian history when a representative of the Crown is called upon to play a pivotal role in politics. In British Columbia, Lieutenant-Governor Judith Guichon is consulting with lawyers and vice-regal counterparts across the Commonwealth to assess her options if the final results from the May 9 election create a hung parliament.

The final ballots are due to be counted starting this week. Based on the preliminary results, Premier Christy Clark has to broker an accord with Green party leader Andrew Weaver in order to remain in power.

Mr. Weaver is negotiating with Ms. Clark and NDP leader John Horgan to determine which party he’ll support.


If Ms. Clark cannot muster enough support in the Legislature, it is Ms. Guichon, the former rancher who has devoted much of her 4.5 years in office promoting literacy, music and land stewardship, who will be left to make a difficult call.

The chain of events that would see the Queen’s representative directly involved in determining when British Columbians head back to the polls will be set in motion only if Ms. Clark loses a confidence motion in the Legislature.

If the BC Liberals gain another seat when the last ballots are counted, Ms. Guichon’s role will remain a largely ceremonial one: She will appoint cabinet ministers, summon the Legislature and read the government’s Speech from the Throne at Ms. Clark’s request.

If the current standings hold, however, and the Liberals have a minority of seats in the 87-seat legislature, the first test will be when MLAs are asked to vote on the Throne Speech, which outlines the government’s agenda.

“This is where Mr. Weaver has real leverage,” noted constitutional expert Ron Cheffins.

Mr. Cheffins, a former B.C. Court of Appeal judge, has advised five past lieutenant-governors in the province.

“He can either support the government, keep them going, or if he chooses to work with Mr. Horgan, the NDP and the Greens would have enough votes to bring the government down.”

In such circumstances, Ms. Clark could be expected to visit Ms. Guichon at Government House and ask her to dissolve the newly-elected Legislative Assembly. That would trigger another provincial election. The cost to taxpayers for the May 9 election is estimated to be in excess of $44-million.

This is where Ms. Guichon would face a critical decision. The most important aspect of her position is to ensure that British Columbia has a First Minister. She could grant Ms. Clark’s request, or she could give Mr. Horgan a chance to be Premier.

Mr. Cheffins, a professor emeritus at the University of Victoria’s political science and law departments, said both options are legitimate.

Mr. Cheffins was among the circle of advisers to former lieutenant-governor David Lam, who later revealed he was prepared to fire B.C. premier Bill Vander Zalm had the scandal-plagued leader of the Social Credit government not resigned of his own accord in 1991.

That would have been the first time since 1903 when the Queen’s representative in B.C. had stepped in and fired a premier.

While it is unusual for a vice-regal appointee to interfere in Canadian political affairs, Mr. Cheffins pointed to two instances that would be relevant in this circumstance.

Ms. Guichon can look at the federal Constitutional crisis of 1926, often referred to as the King-Byng Affair.

Prime minister William Lyon Mackenzie King asked the Governor General, Lord Byng, to dissolve the House of Commons and call an election to avoid losing a vote of confidence in his minority government.

However, Lord Byng refused, because there had been a recent election, and he felt there was an alternative government that could be established if the Conservatives and Progressives established an accord.

More recently in 1985, Ontario premier Frank Miller resigned after his Progressive Conservative government lost a critical vote in the legislature just weeks after taking power with a minority of seats. The Liberals and the New Democrats formed an unofficial coalition to defeat the Miller government on a vote of confidence.

In this case, lieutenant-governor John Black Aird played a critical role in the outcome, Mr. Cheffins recalled. “He sent an emissary to Mr. Miller and told him before the debate on the Throne Speech, ‘If you are defeated, I will not grant you dissolution.’”

Armed with that knowledge, Mr. Miller resigned as premier after losing the vote. Liberal leader David Peterson and NDP leader Bob Rae signed an accord that allowed the Liberals to form the government.

In both those cases, the key was that there was an alternative government ready to step up. If Ms. Clark loses a vote of confidence, it would be up to Mr. Horgan and Mr. Weaver to approach Ms. Guichon to make assurances that they were prepared to work together.

Despite those examples, Mr. Cheffins’ advice – should Ms. Guichon ask – would be to dissolve the freshly-elected Legislative Assembly and launch another election. “There is an alternative, a defensible, constitutional alternative,” he said. “But don’t get into the mess – let the electorate decide.”

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/lieutenant-governor-could-force-new-election-if-clark-loses-confidence-motion/article35077695/

[Emphasis added]


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 22, 2017, 06:03:28 PM
Recount in Courtenay-Comox increases NDP lead from 9 to 13 votes now absentee ballots are counted.

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2017-05-09_Courtenay-Comox.html (http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2017-05-09_Courtenay-Comox.html)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 22, 2017, 06:09:11 PM
Recount in Courtenay-Comox increases NDP lead from 9 to 13 votes now absentee ballots are counted.

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2017-05-09_Courtenay-Comox.html (http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2017-05-09_Courtenay-Comox.html)

This was the recount. The absentees will be counted tomorrow.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 22, 2017, 06:10:40 PM
I don't understand why they would do the recount before counting the absentees.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Jeppe on May 22, 2017, 06:26:19 PM
Richmond-Queensborough MIGHT flip to the NDP from Liberals. NDP reduced the margin of victory to ~170 from ~300 with about 1,000 absentee votes counted, and approximately another 1,000 absentee to go. Will find out more in about 40 minutes, when more absentee ballots are tabulated. If it doesn't entirely flip, it might still be subject to a recount though, if the margin of victory goes down to below 100 votes.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 22, 2017, 06:37:30 PM
I don't understand why they would do the recount before counting the absentees.

This is British Columbia where logic comes to die.  See the resident troll here for evidence of that.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on May 22, 2017, 07:03:54 PM
Richmond-Queensborough MIGHT flip to the NDP from Liberals. NDP reduced the margin of victory to ~170 from ~300 with about 1,000 absentee votes counted, and approximately another 1,000 absentee to go. Will find out more in about 40 minutes, when more absentee ballots are tabulated. If it doesn't entirely flip, it might still be subject to a recount though, if the margin of victory goes down to below 100 votes.

Lead is now 116 votes, they'll continue tomorrow.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Jeppe on May 22, 2017, 07:04:49 PM
Richmond Queensborough margin of victory down to 116, with 541 absentee ballots to go. A recount might be likely. If they are allowed to do one after absentee ballots are counted.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 22, 2017, 07:37:01 PM
Some observations on the 1st day of the 'Final Count'

Of the 16 ridings that had complete counts, the Liberal improve in 9 riding, the NDP in improve in 7. The NDP manage to improve their lead in Burnaby North by 712 votes, while in Prince Geroge-Valemount the Liberals improve their lead by 437 votes.

In Courtenay-Comox, the adjusted results show the NDP has a lead of 13 votes. The Liberal lost 6 votes,  while the NDP lost 2 votes.

In the next closest race, in Maple Ridge-Mission, the NDP lead is now at 166 compared to 120 from Election Night. So far, a total of 219 votes were added in this riding.

In Richmond-Queensborough, the Liberal lead has shrunk from 263 votes to 116, with 1361 added votes.

As of right now, the NDP has increase their vote count by 27,382 votes, while the Liberal increase the vote count by 21,906



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 22, 2017, 08:19:55 PM
I think that in ridings where the BC Liberals won by a big margin on election night the absentees will likely pad their leads in raw votes though in almost every case the bC Liberals are beating the NDP by a smaller percentage of the than they got on election night...in the case of Courtenay-Comox it's likely (though not certain) that the NDP will pad its lead with absentees. In 2013 the NDP lost that seat to the Liberals by 2000 votes but won the absentees by 30 votes


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 22, 2017, 08:24:55 PM
I think that in ridings where the BC Liberals won by a big margin on election night the absentees will likely pad their leads in raw votes though in almost every case the bC Liberals are beating the NDP by a smaller percentage of the than they got on election night...in the case of Courtenay-Comox it's likely (though not certain) that the NDP will pad its lead with absentees. In 2013 the NDP lost that seat to the Liberals by 2000 votes but won the absentees by 30 votes

Different riding boundaries though in 2013.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 22, 2017, 08:58:06 PM
Somewhat different but the pattern was still that the NDP did better with absentees than election night votes and the predecessor riding of Comox Valley also contained the military base


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 23, 2017, 08:10:49 AM
What is the theory that military personnel vote based on where their base is? I believe in federal elections, they can vote in whatever riding they want.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 23, 2017, 09:01:21 AM
What is the theory that military personnel vote based on where their base is? I believe in federal elections, they can vote in whatever riding they want.

That's why some estimate that no more than half a dozen absentee votes were actually cast in Courtenay-Comox by personnel from the base.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 23, 2017, 09:27:44 AM
ah, ok.

Well, I am cautiously optimistic about the count. The absentees are overwhelmingly leaning NDP so far and the PV margin keeps tightening.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Krago on May 23, 2017, 10:12:20 AM
Here are the 2013 BC election vote totals broken down by category.

Category
LIB
NDP
GP
CP
OTH
VALID
REJ
VOTERS
e-Day
563,573
489,870
105,054
63,474
40,527
1,262,498
5,784
3,176,455
Advance
160,524
153,404
25,386
16,861
10,383
366,558
1,318
0
s. 98 Special
4,901
6,566
1,073
776
335
13,651
429
0
s. 99 Absentee - in ED
31,727
30,766
7,950
4,241
2,555
77,239
829
0
s. 100 Absentee - out of ED
11,794
13,685
3,359
1,105
620
30,563
2,295
0
s. 101 Absentee - advance
4,362
4,480
780
452
199
10,273
288
0
s. 104 Voting in DEO office
15,920
14,120
2,486
1,599
772
34,897
644
0
s. 106 Voting by mail
2,473
2,964
597
311
125
6,470
176
0
Grand Total
795,274
715,855
146,685
88,819
55,516
1,802,149
11,763
3,176,455

Category
LIB%
NDP%
GP%
CP%
OTH%
e-Day
44.6%
38.8%
8.3%
5.0%
3.2%
Advance
43.8%
41.8%
6.9%
4.6%
2.8%
s. 98 Special
35.9%
48.1%
7.9%
5.7%
2.5%
s. 99 Absentee - in ED
41.1%
39.8%
10.3%
5.5%
3.3%
s. 100 Absentee - out of ED
38.6%
44.8%
11.0%
3.6%
2.0%
s. 101 Absentee - advance
42.5%
43.6%
7.6%
4.4%
1.9%
s. 104 Voting in DEO office
45.6%
40.5%
7.1%
4.6%
2.2%
s. 106 Voting by mail
38.2%
45.8%
9.2%
4.8%
1.9%
Grand Total
44.1%
39.7%
8.1%
4.9%
3.1%



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 23, 2017, 12:30:21 PM
NDP lead down to 12 votes in Courtenay-Comox. Counting still in progress.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 23, 2017, 01:14:22 PM
Its remarkable how well the NDP si doing over all with the absentees with about half of them counted now

Share of absentee vote   
so far            95,868   
BC Liberals   34,016   35.48%
NDP                   42,876   44.72%
Greens           16,732   17.45%
Other          2,244   2.34%


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 23, 2017, 02:07:15 PM
Liberals are now ahead in Courtenay-Comox by three votes :( Still in progress though.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 23, 2017, 02:43:17 PM
Liberals are now ahead in Courtenay-Comox by three votes :( Still in progress though.

They counted 137 out of 2,077 absentees so far so we have a loong way to go there. Keep in mind that there are different categories of absentee votes (e.g. absentee out of ED, absent out of the country, voted at DRO, mobile hospital votes etc...) so its quite possible that the 137 that they counted today were all of one particular sub-category of absentee votes


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 23, 2017, 04:13:44 PM
Counting is done in Richmond-Queensborough. Liberals win by 124 votes.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 23, 2017, 06:02:02 PM
Its remarkable how well the NDP si doing over all with the absentees with about half of them counted now

Share of absentee vote   
so far            95,868   
BC Liberals   34,016   35.48%
NDP                   42,876   44.72%
Greens           16,732   17.45%
Other          2,244   2.34%

In 2005, the NDP received the plurality of absentee votes while, at the same time, losing two ridings where they were ahead on election day .  Both of them were ridings with former NDP MLAs trying to make a comeback: Tim Stevenson in Vancouver and Pietro Calendino in Burnaby.  (Also, both had subsequently been elected to their respective city councils.)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 23, 2017, 07:04:06 PM
No further counting seems to have been done since the noon update in Courtenay-Comox; the lead (BCL +3 votes) and total vote count has not changed since then.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 23, 2017, 07:05:10 PM
counting is done for the day, will resume tomorrow.

Liberal popular vote lead is down to just 3000.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 23, 2017, 07:12:14 PM
No further counting seems to have been done since the noon update in Courtenay-Comox; the lead (BCL +3 votes) and total vote count has not changed since then.

Actually, I just noticed that Elections BC tweeted that Courtenay-Comox will be updated later today.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 23, 2017, 07:47:34 PM
Still counting but NDP up 10481-10380 in Courtenay-Comox.

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2017-05-09_Courtenay-Comox.html (http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/ed/GE-2017-05-09_Courtenay-Comox.html)

Edit: That is with roughly 56% of the absentee ballots being counted.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 24, 2017, 09:15:44 AM
I suspect given the trend in absentees the NDP will end up winning Courtenay-Comox by close to 200 votes when all the dust settles and then I predict that my the end of June John Horgan will be sworn in as Premier leading a minority NDP government with Green support and that government will last at least two years if not more


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 24, 2017, 09:51:43 AM
I suspect given the trend in absentees the NDP will end up winning Courtenay-Comox by close to 200 votes when all the dust settles and then I predict that my the end of June John Horgan will be sworn in as Premier leading a minority NDP government with Green support and that government will last at least two years if not more

I agree that Courtenay-Comox will go NDP at this point, but will disagree with the latter point. (maybe if the NDP wins the popular vote?)

I don't think the Greens are stupid enough to enter into any formal coalitions and or any agreements with the party that finishes second in seats and the popular vote.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lord Halifax on May 24, 2017, 11:19:05 AM
I suspect given the trend in absentees the NDP will end up winning Courtenay-Comox by close to 200 votes when all the dust settles and then I predict that my the end of June John Horgan will be sworn in as Premier leading a minority NDP government with Green support and that government will last at least two years if not more

I agree that Courtenay-Comox will go NDP at this point, but will disagree with the latter point. (maybe if the NDP wins the popular vote?)

I don't think the Greens are stupid enough to enter into any formal coalitions and or any agreements with the party that finishes second in seats and the popular vote.

Why would that matter? Majority is a majority.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 24, 2017, 11:33:57 AM
I suspect given the trend in absentees the NDP will end up winning Courtenay-Comox by close to 200 votes when all the dust settles and then I predict that my the end of June John Horgan will be sworn in as Premier leading a minority NDP government with Green support and that government will last at least two years if not more

I agree that Courtenay-Comox will go NDP at this point, but will disagree with the latter point. (maybe if the NDP wins the popular vote?)

I don't think the Greens are stupid enough to enter into any formal coalitions and or any agreements with the party that finishes second in seats and the popular vote.

Why would that matter? Majority is a majority.

Because: Canadian politics.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 24, 2017, 12:16:11 PM
No new results from Courtenay-Comox yet today, but in this morning's counting, the province-wide Liberal PV lead is down to ~1700.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 24, 2017, 12:43:31 PM
According to Richard Zussman this is the order of how absentee ballots are being counted the first two categories have been counted, I assume we will have to wait until close to 5 to see the final margin.

1.Section 98 Special- This would cover voting within the district at places like Hospitals.

2. Section 99 Absentee - in ED- Voters that vote in their district but not at their assigned polling place.

3. Section 100 Absentee - out of ED-Voters that voted outside of their district on election day.

4. Section 101 Absentee - advance-Voters that voted outside of their district during advanced voting.

5. Section 104 Voting in DEO office-Voters that voted at the District Electoral office.

8. Section 106 Voting by mail-Voters that voted by mail.


Edit voting results last time: http://142.34.128.33/docs/rpt/2013GE/CMX.pdf (http://142.34.128.33/docs/rpt/2013GE/CMX.pdf)

NDP won section 98,99,100, and 106 last time, Liberals won section 104 last time and section 101 was a Liberal and NDP tie.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 24, 2017, 02:02:56 PM
NDP lead in Courtenay-Comox up to 148 votes.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 24, 2017, 02:10:15 PM
Only 4 more ridings to count PV margin now at ~1600 votes. Even though Section 106 voters are disproportionately NDP voters, I don't think the NDP can make up the difference. 2 of the 4 ridings remaining went/are going NDP, 1 Liberal and the other is Courtenay-Comox.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 24, 2017, 02:13:17 PM
Also, according to Richard Zussman on Twitter, there are around 568 votes left to count in Courtenay-Comox, so Benninger would need around 2/3rds of the vote (doing rough math in my head) to win.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Jeppe on May 24, 2017, 03:11:25 PM
Liberal margin in Coquitlam-Burke Mountain is down to 87, although I don't think there are any more absentee ballots to count. Any possibility of a recount this late in the stage? They did have the weird vote adjustment that gave the Liberal candidate an extra 70 votes the day after the election.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: cp on May 24, 2017, 03:50:47 PM
Also, according to Richard Zussman on Twitter, there are around 568 votes left to count in Courtenay-Comox, so Benninger would need around 2/3rds of the vote (doing rough math in my head) to win.

HA! I went to high school with him. Was on the debating team. Nice guy. Glad to see he's doing well for himself.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 24, 2017, 04:08:11 PM
Two ridings left to count, and of course Courtenay-Comox is one of them. No update there. Liberal province-wide PV lead is under 1700 votes.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on May 24, 2017, 06:39:05 PM
NDP win Courtenay-Comox by 189 votes.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on May 24, 2017, 11:34:22 PM
Woot! Looks like the Greens have a lot more power in government now.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 25, 2017, 06:09:26 AM
Woot! Looks like the Greens have a lot more power in government now.

Enjoy your Liberal-Green coalition.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on May 25, 2017, 09:39:45 AM
WOW...

Popular Vote:
BCL - 40.36%
NDP - 40.28%

Also, looks like the best results for the BC Conservatives was... Courtney-Comox, with 7.55%

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_result.html


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Krago on May 25, 2017, 11:14:21 AM
WOW...

Popular Vote:
BCL - 40.36%
NDP - 40.28%

Also, looks like the best results for the BC Conservatives was... Comox-Courtney, with 7.55%

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_result.html

Is this the closest popular vote margin for any recent provincial election?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 25, 2017, 11:20:56 AM
WOW...

Popular Vote:
BCL - 40.36%
NDP - 40.28%

Also, looks like the best results for the BC Conservatives was... Comox-Courtney, with 7.55%

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_result.html

Is this the closest popular vote margin for any recent provincial election?
I think it's the closest since NB 1978.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 25, 2017, 12:26:14 PM
Regional vote totals

Vancouver 259,429
N.D.P:   134,241, 51.74%
Liberal:   87,470, 33.72
Green:    34,358, 13.24
Other:       3,361

Lower Mainland (Richmond, Tri Cities, Delta, New Westminster, North Shore, Burnaby - 19 ridings)
Total  431,299
N.D.P:  182,324, 42.27%
Liberal: 174,279, 40.41 
Green:    63,714, 14.77
Other:     10,982

Surrey 193,098
NDP:      88,706, 45.94%
Liberal:   79,469, 41.15
Green:   20,632,  10.68
Other:      4,291

Fraser Valley (Abbotsford, Chilliwack, Langley, Maple Ridge - 9 ridings)
Total: 217,853
NDP:       73,827, 33.89%
Liberal: 105,385, 48.37
Green:    31,990, 14.68
Other:      6,651

Southern Interior (Okanagan, Kootenays, Kamloops, Fraser-Nicola)
Total:  320,562
NDP:      97,183, 30.32%
Liberal: 158,779, 49.53
Green:    55,217, 17.23

North (including North Coast and Powell River-Sunshine Coast)
Total: 156,222
NDP:     55,090, 35.26%
Liberal: 78,425, 50.20
Green: 15,764, 10.01
Other:    6,943

Southern Vancouver Island (Up to Langford - 7 ridings)
Total:     198,659
NDP:    84,225, 42.40%
Liberal: 47,282, 23.80
Green:  64,980, 32.71
Other:     2,172

Northern Vancouver Island (Starting with Cowichan - 7 ridings)
Total: 196,792
NDP:     79,510, 40.40%
Liberal:  65,583, 33.33
Green:   45,733, 23.24
Other:     5,966

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Greater Vancouver - 48 ridings
Total: 1,101,679
NDP:      479,098,  43.49%
Liberal:  446,603,   40.54
Green:   150,693,   13.68
Other:     25,285


Interior (and Coast) - 25 ridings
Total: 476,784
NDP:      152,273, 31.94%
Liberal:  237,204, 49.75
Green:     70,981, 14.89
Other:      16,326

Vancouver Island - 14 ridings
Total: 395,451
NDP:     163,735, 41.40%
Liberal:  112,865, 28.54
Green:   110,713, 28.00
Other:        8,138

----------------------------------------------

Total:     1,973,914
NDP:        795,106 40.28%
Liberal:    796,672, 40.36
Green:     332,387, 16.84
Other:        49,749


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 25, 2017, 12:32:54 PM
WOW...

Popular Vote:
BCL - 40.36%
NDP - 40.28%

Also, looks like the best results for the BC Conservatives was... Comox-Courtney, with 7.55%

http://electionsbcenr.blob.core.windows.net/electionsbcenr/GE-2017-05-09_result.html

Is this the closest popular vote margin for any recent provincial election?

The 1999 and 2003 Saskatchewan Elections are probably instructive here for B.C. In 1999, the NDP won 29 of 58 seats, and the Sask Party 26 with the Liberals taking 3.  The NDP and the Liberals formed a coalition government, with one Liberal refusing to join after the Saskatchewan Liberal Party Executive voted that it wanted no part of a NDP-Liberal Coalition.  Still, the 31 seat coalition managed to remain in office for a full four year term.

The Sask Party won the popular vote in that 1999 election by 39.6-38.7%

In 2003, The Saskatchewan NDP won a bare majority by 30-28 seats (despite winning the popular vote 44.7-39.4%) yet, again, managed to govern for their entire four year term.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 25, 2017, 12:48:19 PM
Starting to look over some more numerical tidbits.

1.This isn't completely accurate, because a few ridings had their election night totals adjusted (I never adjusted my preliminary vote totals), but it's obviously fairly close:

Absentee vote totals: 174,559
NDP:      78,033, 44.7%
Liberal:   61,568, 35.3
Green:    31,109, 17.8
Other:      3,849

2.Number of ridings in which the winning candidate received over 50% of the vote: 48/87


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 25, 2017, 02:50:11 PM
Northern Vancouver Island and the Coast isn't that different from the Interior.  Both the NDP and the B.C  Liberals should figure out why they can win in one area but not the other.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on May 25, 2017, 03:36:40 PM
Northern Vancouver Island and the Coast isn't that different from the Interior.  Both the NDP and the B.C  Liberals should figure out why they can win in one area but not the other.

That just feels wrong? :P  Maybe someone with more local understanding can answer this... but Northern Vancouver Island, and the Coast have voted NDP since 72 most riding's going NDP, save 86 which had more mixed results.
The interior has a swing to it, When the NDP won (72,91,96) they won over much of the interior (Kootenays, Thompson, north Fraser, Cariboo) with the exception of the Okanagan which has been pretty solid SC/BCL


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 26, 2017, 05:39:07 PM
A majority of Green voters think the NDP should form government: http://www.insightswest.com/news/most-british-columbians-want-greens-to-support-ndp-in-legislature/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 26, 2017, 07:23:26 PM
A majority of Green voters think the NDP should form government: http://www.insightswest.com/news/most-british-columbians-want-greens-to-support-ndp-in-legislature/

lol


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2017, 03:03:43 PM
Make 1985 Great Again? (https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/869282566322491392)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 29, 2017, 03:30:46 PM
Let's start singing "The Orange and The Green"

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-greens-and-ndp-to-hold-joint-news-conference-1.4136539


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 29, 2017, 03:36:57 PM
()

Can we call it an Ireland coalition?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2017, 04:05:40 PM
How does 44/43 last 4 years? (https://twitter.com/ianabailey/status/869298221234782209)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on May 29, 2017, 04:15:15 PM
How does 44/43 last 4 years? (https://twitter.com/ianabailey/status/869298221234782209)

More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on May 29, 2017, 04:19:13 PM
Still pretty shaky. I'd call another election in about a year with finish... er, "strong, stable majority government" as my slogan.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on May 29, 2017, 04:22:48 PM
Still pretty shaky. I'd call another election in about a year with finish... er, "strong, stable majority government" as my slogan.

Oh, sure, but any possibility is shaky. Anyways, NDP doesn't want an election too soon, they need to fundraise. And NDP-Greens will probably ban very quickly corporate donations, which will even the money playing field between NDP and Liberals.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 29, 2017, 04:30:12 PM
How does 44/43 last 4 years? (https://twitter.com/ianabailey/status/869298221234782209)

It won't.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 29, 2017, 04:32:37 PM
Should be an exciting time! Of course, this really depends on Linda Reid actually deciding to remain as Speaker.

Now, does Clark go through the humiliation of having her Throne Speech voted down?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 29, 2017, 04:34:32 PM
How does 44/43 last 4 years? (https://twitter.com/ianabailey/status/869298221234782209)

It won't.

Saskatchewan NDP made 30-28 last for four years.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 29, 2017, 04:56:27 PM
Predicted Cabinet
1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, John Horgan
2.Finance, Bruce Ralston
3.Economic Development and Trade, Shane Simpson
4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Scott Fraser
5.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship/Government House Leader, Mike Farnworth
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Katrine Conroy
7.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Adrian Dix
8.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Lana Popham
9.Environment/North, Doug Donaldson
10.Transportation and Infrastructure/Rural Affairs, Michelle Mugall
11.Citizen Services, Innovation and Technology, Doug Routley
12.Human Resources and Housing, Harry Bains
13.Children and Family Development, Melanie Mark
14.Education/Deputy Premier, Carole James
15.Advanced Education and Training, Jennifer Rice
16.Health, Judy Darcy
17.Municipal Affairs/Translink/Status of Women, Selina Robinson
18.Aboriginal Relations, Len Krog
19.Justice and Public Safety, David Eby

Deputy Speaker, Raj Chouhan (If Linda Reid remains speaker)
Chief Government Whip, Rob Fleming
Caucus Chair, Mable Elmore


Horgan also promised some new ministries, I think one way to keep everybody happy would be to make every remaining NDP MLA either an Associate Minister or a Parliamentary Secretary.

1.Finance, Ravi Kahlon
2.International Trade, Jagrup Brar
3. Economic Development and Small Business, Bob D'Eith
4.Tourism and Culture, Nicholas Simons
5.Immigration and Citizenship, Katrina Chen
6.Natural Resources and Forestry, Claire Trevena
7.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Ronna Rae Leonard
8.Energy and Climate Change, Spencer Chandra Herbert
9.Transportation and Infrastructure, Bowinn Ma
10.Innovation and Technology, Rick Glumac
11.Housing, George Chow
12.Children and Family Development, Mitzi Dean
13.Education, Anne Kang
14.Training and Apprenticeship, George Heyman
15.Mental Health and Addictions, Rachna Singh
16.Seniors, Jinny Sims
17.Status of Women, Janet Routledge
18.Aboriginal Relations, Lisa Beare
19.Public Safety, Garry Begg


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: jaichind on May 29, 2017, 04:59:23 PM
How does 44/43 last 4 years? (https://twitter.com/ianabailey/status/869298221234782209)

More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.

So the assumption is that the Speaker comes from the LIBs ?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on May 29, 2017, 05:04:46 PM
How does 44/43 last 4 years? (https://twitter.com/ianabailey/status/869298221234782209)

More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.

So the assumption is that the Speaker comes from the LIBs ?

The assumption is than the incumbent will be relected (despite being described as sub-par by NDP in the past).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vosem on May 29, 2017, 05:20:50 PM
How does 44/43 last 4 years? (https://twitter.com/ianabailey/status/869298221234782209)

More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.

So the assumption is that the Speaker comes from the LIBs ?

The assumption is than the incumbent will be relected (despite being described as sub-par by NDP in the past).

Could the Speaker refuse to seek reelection? Presumably in that case it would be 43/43.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Boston Bread on May 29, 2017, 05:26:52 PM
The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 29, 2017, 05:29:01 PM
How does 44/43 last 4 years? (https://twitter.com/ianabailey/status/869298221234782209)

More likely to be 44/42, as Speaker doesn't vote.

So the assumption is that the Speaker comes from the LIBs ?

The assumption is than the incumbent will be relected (despite being described as sub-par by NDP in the past).

Could the Speaker refuse to seek reelection? Presumably in that case it would be 43/43.

Yes.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 29, 2017, 05:32:14 PM
How does 44/43 last 4 years? (https://twitter.com/ianabailey/status/869298221234782209)

It won't.

Saskatchewan NDP made 30-28 last for four years.

Ok, but one by-election and this whole government could come topling down. Actually, what would happen if the Liberals win a by-election in an NDP or Green seat? Would the Lt Governor call on the Liberals to form government, or would a snap election happen? The poor people in whatever  riding that would be...

Reminds me of the Kitchener-Waterloo by-election we had a few years ago which could have turned the Liberal minority in Queen's Park to a majority.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 29, 2017, 06:32:48 PM
A similar situation happened in Queensland in 1996, when the ALP lost its one seat majority after a by-election, resulting in a hung parliament.

If the Liberals gained a majority at a by-election, Horgan could attempt to request the Lt. Governor call a snap election, but the Lt. Governor would be well within his right to refuse and allow the Liberals to attempt to govern.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 29, 2017, 06:40:51 PM
The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.

And in that situation, it really depends what precedent the Speaker chooses to follow. Traditionally, Westminster Speakers will follow Speaker Denison's Rules to guide them when casting a tie-breaking vote, but this hasn't always been the case in other Commonwealth nations, and some Australian states follow a different model. Regardless, it's all down to Convention, anyway, so we'll see.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on May 29, 2017, 06:48:51 PM
The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.

And it that situation, it really depends what precedent the Speaker choose to follow. Traditionally, Westminster Speakers will follow Speaker Denison's Rules to guide them when casting a tie-breaking vote, but this hasn't always been the case in other Commonwealth nations, and some Australian states follow a different model. Regardless, it's all down to Convention, anyway, so we'll see.

The precedent used in Canada is Speaker Denison's Rule.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 29, 2017, 06:53:43 PM
The speaker can still break ties, if it comes to 43-43.

And it that situation, it really depends what precedent the Speaker choose to follow. Traditionally, Westminster Speakers will follow Speaker Denison's Rules to guide them when casting a tie-breaking vote, but this hasn't always been the case in other Commonwealth nations, and some Australian states follow a different model. Regardless, it's all down to Convention, anyway, so we'll see.

The precedent used in Canada is Speaker Denison's Rule.

Federally, you're absolutely right. Peter Milliken keeping the Martin Government alive by breaking the tie on the second reading of the 2005 budget being a prime example. I wasn't sure about each of the provinces.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 29, 2017, 07:13:58 PM
Isn't it a constitutional convention? Meaning breaking it would be unconstitutional? Oy vey!


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on May 29, 2017, 07:29:48 PM
Isn't it a constitutional convention? Meaning breaking it would be unconstitutional? Oy vey!

No, it's not what it means, but I suspect the Lieutenant Governor would refuse to recognise a government falling through such a vote.

In any case, I would assume it's a parlimentary convention, not a constitutionnal one. One can argue, however, than such a vote would run against the "clear majority of the House" constitutionnal convention.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Orthogonian Society Treasurer on May 29, 2017, 08:42:42 PM
The glorious post-industrial future is finally here.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on May 29, 2017, 08:46:56 PM
Manitoba 1986/1988

The NDP won the election with 30 seats, the PCs 26 and the Liberal 1 seat, after 1 NDP member resign and one in the speakers chair, the NDP had 28-27 lead in the legislature. All it took was one NDP member (Jim Walding) to vote against the gov't on a budget bill. The next day the Premier (Howard Pawley) resign as leader of the party, and called for election (and a NDP leadership convention).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Babeuf on May 30, 2017, 09:57:58 AM
If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 30, 2017, 10:38:08 AM
If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on May 30, 2017, 11:01:00 AM
If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.


We're also assuming that the referendum with have FPTP as an option. If the BCNDP-Greens play this right, and they should! this is the best chance for this, the referendum will be one of what other option do you support. The question should be which system should BC move to? make this a choice between say made in BC versions of MMP and STV (STV has received over 57% in 2005 and 40% in 2009 referendums). This guarantees the province moves to a form of PR. Both parties want this, so i expect something to happen soon as soon as Clark resigns or is defeated.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on May 30, 2017, 12:01:33 PM
Any sign of Lotuslander? Is he on suicide watch somewhere?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on May 30, 2017, 12:10:15 PM
If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.


The earliest opportunity would be the municipal elections held in November of 2018.  Assuming, of course, that Trump has caused global thermal nuclear war by then.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on May 30, 2017, 01:40:38 PM
According to this article (http://www.cknw.com/2017/05/30/ndp-meets-to-hear-ratify-power-sharing-deal-with-bc-greens/) that I found, the agreement includes a commitment to an electoral reform referendum concurrent with the 2018 municipal elections.

Apparently, the actual agreement will be released at 2pm BC time.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on May 30, 2017, 02:15:54 PM
If the deal goes through, what are the chances that the next election isn't fought under FPTP?

Not as high as you would think. They will probably end up going with a referendum (doing it unilaterally through the legislature may prove too unpopular with the public) which will either be held at the same time as the next election or if held before, will probably fail. Of course, if its held on its own, there is a better chance of it passing (look at the PEI referendum), as most people who end up voting against electoral reform don't care enough to come out to vote in an off-year election. The big caveat would be that an off-year referendum may end up also being a "referendum" on the NDP-Green government, which could very well be unpopular at the time.


We're also assuming that the referendum with have FPTP as an option. If the BCNDP-Greens play this right, and they should! this is the best chance for this, the referendum will be one of what other option do you support. The question should be which system should BC move to? make this a choice between say made in BC versions of MMP and STV (STV has received over 57% in 2005 and 40% in 2009 referendums). This guarantees the province moves to a form of PR. Both parties want this, so i expect something to happen soon as soon as Clark resigns or is defeated.

Putting FPTP on the ballot was what we did in Ontario in 2007, and it won, so for it to lose, it should probably be listed second on the ballot, and hopefully without a mention of it being the "current system".

If it directly specifies on the ballot that PR would mean each party gets the same proportion of seats as their vote share, then this is the way to go.

Linking it with the municipal elections might be a bad idea, as the electorate in municipal elections skews towards the kinds of people who might be opposed to electoral reform. Having a stand alone referendum is the best way of having it pass.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 30, 2017, 02:17:09 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the first time the Greens have been part of a government in Canadian history.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 30, 2017, 02:18:45 PM
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I think this is the first time the Greens have been part of a government in Canadian history.

It is the first time the support of the Greens is necessary to govern, but they won't be part of the Government itself, of course.

Clark will be making a statement from the Premier's Office at 1:30 PST.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 30, 2017, 03:36:31 PM
Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 2952-0-0 on May 30, 2017, 03:39:29 PM
Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.
She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 31, 2017, 02:12:37 PM
Horgan and Weaver delivered a letter to the Lieutenant Governor today formally informing her of their agreement.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 31, 2017, 02:16:57 PM
Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.
She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.

Oh certainly. The LG would be almost certainly refuse a request for a new election if Clark asked for one.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on May 31, 2017, 03:06:17 PM
Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.
She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.

Oh certainly. The LG would be almost certainly refuse a request for a new election if Clark asked for one.

She made clear she wouldn't ask one and is ready to become the Opposition Leader, should the likely event of losing that vote happens.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on May 31, 2017, 03:10:19 PM
Clark will not be resigning as Premier and will convene the Legislative Assembly in June to force a standoff on the floor.
She does give a vibe that she's conceding she will lose the vote. But when asked if she thinks the LG will call another vote, she responded with a clear no.

Oh certainly. The LG would be almost certainly refuse a request for a new election if Clark asked for one.

She made clear she wouldn't ask one and is ready to become the Opposition Leader, should the likely event of losing that vote happens.

Honestly, I don't blame her for waiting for a vote to happen. As has been previously discussed, Clark isn't terribly popular among her caucus, so I wonder how long her position would be tenable?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on May 31, 2017, 04:10:02 PM
Clark should really step down; she's woefully unpopular and just lost an evidently winnable election. Not to mention she's about to experience the humiliation of having a throne speech voted down.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on May 31, 2017, 08:07:33 PM
A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on May 31, 2017, 08:17:12 PM
A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Doubtful. Losing corporate donations will cripple the Liberal Party.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lord Halifax on June 01, 2017, 01:31:12 PM
A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Not if electoral reform pass in 2018.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: IceAgeComing on June 01, 2017, 02:56:29 PM
I'm assuming that they'll go the referendum route again; simply because that's what the Liberals did when they tried electoral reform.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 01, 2017, 03:23:15 PM
A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Not if electoral reform pass in 2018.

I'll believe it when I see it.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on June 01, 2017, 05:16:25 PM
A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Doubtful. Losing corporate donations will cripple the Liberal Party.

Speaking from experience of PC Alberta, the BC Libs should be okay if they have a strong small-donor fundraising machine.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on June 02, 2017, 06:35:03 AM
A bare NDP-green majority sounds like a recipe for disaster. At this rate, Libs will be back in power within a year or two.

Doubtful. Losing corporate donations will cripple the Liberal Party.


Speaking from experience of PC Alberta, the BC Libs should be okay if they have a strong small-donor fundraising machine.

As the ONLY party of the right-free enterprise coalition of not-the-NDP... they will be ok, since they are the only option out there really. but they will not have such dominance in terms of money in the war chest. It will be a much more level playing field. 


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 02, 2017, 08:34:25 PM
Kady O'Malley has a typically excellent explainer on the potential parliamentary crisis. Spoiler: last time something like it happened, (NL 1908), LG called a new election. To me this smacks of King's 1925-6 playbook. (https://news.vice.com/story/british-columbia-could-be-headed-for-a-parliamentary-crisis) As does Solomon on BC Grits hoping to win a new election within 18 months. (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/justin-trudeau-christy-clark-and-a-high-stakes-game-of-pipelines/)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on June 02, 2017, 09:57:29 PM
Kady O'Malley has a typically excellent explainer on the potential parliamentary crisis. Spoiler: last time something like it happened, (NL 1908), LG called a new election. To me this smacks of King's 1925-6 playbook. (https://news.vice.com/story/british-columbia-could-be-headed-for-a-parliamentary-crisis) As does Solomon on BC Grits hoping to win a new election within 18 months. (http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/justin-trudeau-christy-clark-and-a-high-stakes-game-of-pipelines/)

The issue is than Liberals don't want a new election right away, they would be killed by the electorate for causing an unwanted election.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 03, 2017, 08:01:16 AM
If the speaker's role is more defined by convention, and not by the constitution, then what is to stop the speaker from just siding with the government? Would there be much public outcry? I doubt anyone would care.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Zanas on June 06, 2017, 09:33:29 AM
What's the interest of having an odd number of members of an assembly if you're gonna discard one of them completely for majority vote purposes ? It always seemed quite odd to me (pun intended).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 06, 2017, 11:22:06 AM
What's the interest of having an odd number of members of an assembly if you're gonna discard one of them completely for majority vote purposes ? It always seemed quite odd to me (pun intended).

This whole convention is so f'ing stupid, and this whole 'crisis' is exposing it for what it is. Why the hell do we have this antiquated 19th century stupid convention in the first place?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: rob in cal on June 06, 2017, 11:36:11 AM
  Utopian strategy for achieving PR.  Just have the legislature enact it without a referendum, and none of this Irish style STV stuff, go all out for party lists with a small threshold.  Then after the next election there would possibly be enough new parties and legislators who would have won election due in large part to the new law so that there would be a solid majority in favor of retaining it.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on June 06, 2017, 03:10:49 PM
What's the interest of having an odd number of members of an assembly if you're gonna discard one of them completely for majority vote purposes ? It always seemed quite odd to me (pun intended).

This whole convention is so f'ing stupid, and this whole 'crisis' is exposing it for what it is. Why the hell do we have this antiquated 19th century stupid convention in the first place?

Yes, unlimited fundraising creating conflicts of interest, shrug.  But, DON'T YOU DARE TURN THE SPEAKER INTO A PARTISAN POSITION!  

I'm sure the right wing OUTRAGE! machine will make this out to be the biggest scandal of all time, but  unlike they and the political scientists all rapped up in their concerns about historical conventions, I think most fair minded people will see a difference between a 'partisan' Speaker voting to break ties in favor of their government, and a partisan Speaker making partisan legislative rulings in favor of their government.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 06, 2017, 03:56:48 PM
Another stupid, pointless and harmful tradition that the British have saddled their former possessions with.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 06, 2017, 05:49:38 PM
What's the interest of having an odd number of members of an assembly if you're gonna discard one of them completely for majority vote purposes ? It always seemed quite odd to me (pun intended).

This whole convention is so f'ing stupid, and this whole 'crisis' is exposing it for what it is. Why the hell do we have this antiquated 19th century stupid convention in the first place?

Yes, unlimited fundraising creating conflicts of interest, shrug.  But, DON'T YOU DARE TURN THE SPEAKER INTO A PARTISAN POSITION!  

I'm sure the right wing OUTRAGE! machine will make this out to be the biggest scandal of all time, but  unlike they and the political scientists all rapped up in their concerns about historical conventions, I think most fair minded people will see a difference between a 'partisan' Speaker voting to break ties in favor of their government, and a partisan Speaker making partisan legislative rulings in favor of their government.

One would hope so, but I'm worried the Liberals are going to use this to whip up some outrage from the public, most of whom would have had no prior knowledge of the speaker's role to begin with.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on June 07, 2017, 04:50:47 PM
Assembly called for June 22.

So, electing a Speaker on June 22 and a Throne Speech on June 23?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on June 07, 2017, 04:58:44 PM

One would hope so, but I'm worried the Liberals are going to use this to whip up some outrage from the public, most of whom would have had no prior knowledge of the speaker's role to begin with.

Good luck trying to whip up any kind of "outrage" over the canada day long weekend and in to summer. In any case, if the BC Liberals wre really going to try to whip people up into a frenzy they would have spent the last couple of weeks mimicking harper in december 2008 and calling it a coup d'etat by the "losers" (sic.) of the election...but they didnt do that


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 07, 2017, 04:59:53 PM
Assembly called for June 22.

So, electing a Speaker on June 22 and a Throne Speech on June 23?

Can't the coalition just elect a Liberal speaker? They have the majority, after all, so they can elect whoever they want (as long as someone is willing to take the seat).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on June 07, 2017, 07:24:34 PM
Assembly called for June 22.

So, electing a Speaker on June 22 and a Throne Speech on June 23?

Can't the coalition just elect a Liberal speaker? They have the majority, after all, so they can elect whoever they want (as long as someone is willing to take the seat).

They can, obviously. The tradition is a bit wierd. Everyone is a candidate (but party leaders and ministers) and you actually need to withdraw yourself from contention.

In any case, electing a speaker must be done first. Nothing can happen until it's done.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 07, 2017, 07:52:18 PM
Assembly called for June 22.

So, electing a Speaker on June 22 and a Throne Speech on June 23?

Can't the coalition just elect a Liberal speaker? They have the majority, after all, so they can elect whoever they want (as long as someone is willing to take the seat).

They can, obviously. The tradition is a bit wierd. Everyone is a candidate (but party leaders and ministers) and you actually need to withdraw yourself from contention.

In any case, electing a speaker must be done first. Nothing can happen until it's done.

They should totally do that. Lib's heads would explode.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 07, 2017, 08:21:27 PM
Not a single Liberals will take the job, they've already said as much.

Anyways, the pundit class' heads would explode if the NDP installed a speaker and broke convention. Will anyone other than them care?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on June 12, 2017, 02:24:38 PM
Christy Clark plus new cabinet to be sworn in this afternoon.  Will be interesting to see how Clark handles newly elected star candidates (Ross, Johal and Redies) and whether Sam Sullivan gets included.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 12, 2017, 02:30:58 PM
what is the point of picking a cabinet that will serve for 2 weeks?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on June 12, 2017, 03:08:49 PM
what is the point of picking a cabinet that will serve for 2 weeks?

To promote the illusion of continuity and the idea that because the Liberals won the most seats and have the first right to form the government that they are the only legitimate government - much as Stephen Harper falsely claimed.

I don't have a problem with Christy Clark wanting the Liberals government to fall on a confidence motion rather than just resign, but clearly there is reason to be concerned that she's taking so long dealing with this to try and get Site C past the 'point of no return.'

The Liberals say 'it takes time to appoint a new cabinet...' but there is no requirement for a cabinet minister to be an MLA so she could have just reappointed all the current ministers and go to the throne speech and the confidence vote.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on June 13, 2017, 09:51:30 PM
There are several reports that Ellis Ross is the first aboriginal with a cabinet portfolio (Frank Calder was a Minister Without Portfolio for a couple years in the Dave Barrett government.)

I believe Ellis Ross is the first elected aboriginal with a cabinet portfolio as Ed John was an unelected minister in the Ujjal Dosanjh government.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 14, 2017, 02:07:13 PM
Hmm. (https://twitter.com/garymasonglobe/status/875022763639033856) Though Spector said he thinks deal will hold for a while so long as SOs are changed.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on June 14, 2017, 03:14:18 PM
Hmm. (https://twitter.com/garymasonglobe/status/875022763639033856) Though Spector said he thinks deal will hold for a while so long as SOs are changed.

Gary Mason is usually fair, but there seems to be no question that the media that enables the B.C Liberals (Vancouver Sun, CKNW) is revving up the notion of how important this convention of the 'non partisan Speaker.'

Odd how neither of those outlets thought it was important when the hyper partisan Liberal Linda Reid made a number of clearly partisan rulings in favor of the B.C Liberals.

This isn't a case of 'both sides do it.'  

Weaver brought up the convention that a Speaker can't resign mid term and received a reply that 'many speakers have stepped down recently.' So, if there are precedents that show a convention hasn't been followed and, therefore, the convention no longer applies, then their is similarly no basis to now argue that the convention on the 'non partisan Speaker' must now be followed.

Either conventions are followed or they're not, and either precedents matter or they don't.  The B.C Liberals and their media enablers can't have it both ways.

Also, according to Dave Schreck, The Lieutenant Governor's (Judith Guichon) business (a farm) made donations to the B.C Liberals in 2005 and 2009, so the Lieutenant Governor would be walking on very thin ice to decide to not allow the NDP/Green coalition a chance to govern on the basis of a convention that hasn't been followed.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 14, 2017, 03:32:23 PM
This is all so stupid a ridiculous. Why don't all the regular pundits realize this? I'd rather some sort of grand coalition with Clark as Premier than to head to the polls again because Andrew Coyne says so.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on June 14, 2017, 04:41:16 PM
I seriously doubt there will be another election in 2017. There is likely a lot of bluffing and inside baseball speculation. It is interesting though to speculate what would happen if there was a new election? Would the NDP and Greens campaign as partners seeking a mandate for their accord? Would they each run a full slate of candidates or would they not run against each others incumbents and divvy up who would run against which Liberal incumbents?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lord Halifax on June 14, 2017, 04:55:18 PM
I seriously doubt there will be another election in 2017. There is likely a lot of bluffing and inside baseball speculation. It is interesting though to speculate what would happen if there was a new election? Would the NDP and Greens campaign as partners seeking a mandate for their accord? Would they each run a full slate of candidates or would they not run against each others incumbents and divvy up who would run against which Liberal incumbents?

That would be the logical move.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on June 14, 2017, 06:47:24 PM
My comment on CKNW was not entirely fair.  Every show host there seems to be independent but politically they go from the center (Simi Sara, Drex) to the far right (Charles Addled, Jill Bennett) with John McComb and Linda Steele essentially center right.

The main thing is though that the stock in trade with all of them except for Simi Sara is OUTRAGE! This is true of all of them, but the worst in probably the person who discusses the news with Simi Sara (and maybe with John McComb as well) Gord MacDonald.

I've tweeted to a couple of them (no reply, of course) "If you're so holier than thou, what are you doing working for a radio station that employs the anti homeless person bigot (and generally misinformed) Bruce Allen?  You want to send a message that your OUTRAGE! is sincere, quit your job. Make the hard decision and the sacrifice that you're constantly calling for others to do (especially politicians.) "

Bruce Allen had one of his editorials reported to the Broadcast Standards Council. Although he was cleared, you be the judge if this is morally acceptable comment:  

"...This is sick. What’s the down side if
these people don’t get their fix? They die? Yeah, so? Are we losing big
contributors here? They get the wrong smack and overdose? Same result, too
bad."

http://www.cbsc.ca/decisions/20-0506/20-0506-0651_PD_E.pdf

CKNW stood by Bruce Allen as well they claimed in the interest of 'free speech' but anybody with a brain knows the reason they hired such a POS is because he's controversial and controversy sadly gets ratings.

So, just remember that if you hear a sanctimonious talk show host on CKNW say how the Speaker voting to break ties would be an OUTRAGEOUS! situation.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: the506 on June 19, 2017, 08:26:35 AM
Poll by poll results are up: http://elections.bc.ca/resources/voting-results/provincial-general-elections-results/

EDIT: Maps are now up - http://www.election-atlas.ca/bc/


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 22, 2017, 08:47:58 AM
Clark says she won't advise the LG what to do if the Throne Speech is defeated. (https://twitter.com/nspector4/status/877873811135143936)

Smyth: Clark wants another election.  (http://theprovince.com/news/bc-politics/mike-smyth-will-the-real-christy-clark-please-stand-up)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: the506 on June 22, 2017, 12:22:57 PM
Liberal Steve Thomson becomes speaker. (https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/877938166694465536)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 22, 2017, 12:23:09 PM
Grit Speaker elected. Problem solved? (https://twitter.com/CTVNewsChandler/status/877938176764952576)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 22, 2017, 12:24:33 PM
Grit Speaker elected. Problem solved? (https://twitter.com/CTVNewsChandler/status/877938176764952576)

I CALLED IT


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 22, 2017, 01:40:38 PM
No surprise. The question is if he stays on after the government is voted out.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Barnes on June 24, 2017, 05:53:15 PM
It's important to remember that the Legislative Assembly could not constitutionally do anything until they elected a speaker, so if Clark is still trying the "Strong and Stable!" shtick, paralyzing Parliament from Day One would have reflected rather poorly on her.

Also, there is a direct precedence for what might happen in Queensland in 1996 when the ALP was reelected with a one seat majority and collapsed the next year after loosing a by-election leading to a Coalition minority government. A few weeks after the new Coalition government took over, the ALP speaker resigned and the new government tested its numbers by electing a Liberal speaker.

We shall see how this plays out...


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on June 26, 2017, 07:51:28 PM
Looks like the "Liberals" power will run out on Thursday.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 27, 2017, 12:17:40 PM
Mason: Grits are playing a procedural card they hope will convince Guichon to grant Clark dissolution. If it fails, then Clark's done as leader. (https://twitter.com/garymasonglobe/status/879747204801372160)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 27, 2017, 12:41:24 PM
Mason: Grits are playing a procedural card they hope will convince Guichon to grant Clark dissolution. If it fails, then Clark's done as leader. (https://twitter.com/garymasonglobe/status/879747204801372160)

Even if they succeed, I fail to see how these shenanigans could play well with the voters.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 27, 2017, 12:48:20 PM
That's what Meighen thought too. Depends who wins the messaging war in an election scenario.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 27, 2017, 12:51:34 PM
If Clark's gambit fails, then she'll join Frank Miller in the Hall of Minority Infamy.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 28, 2017, 06:33:24 PM
To paraphrase Bill Clinton, it depends on what the definition of "advice" is.  (https://twitter.com/BhinderSajan/status/880203954029641728)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 28, 2017, 09:01:11 PM
Mason: difficult to imagine Guichon ignoring Clark's advice. (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-watches-lieutenant-governor-guichon-for-the-provinces-political-future/article35497372/?service=amp)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on June 29, 2017, 01:57:57 AM
Hopefully, if Guichon calls an election and the NDP, they will play hard ball. Defunding her office and denying access to any event until she resigns and going over every detail of her office finance and prosecute her for the tiniest mistake, a la Lise Thibault.

Her calling an election would be a coup and a denial of democracy. NDP-Greens have a majority.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on June 29, 2017, 02:01:39 AM
Mason: difficult to imagine Guichon ignoring Clark's advice. (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-watches-lieutenant-governor-guichon-for-the-provinces-political-future/article35497372/?service=amp)

We must have read a different article: "The eyes of the province, and country, now turn on Ms. Guichon. If she doesn’t give the NDP a chance to govern with a one-seat majority, something that has managed to work elsewhere in Canada for as many as three years, she will face enormous criticism.

She will be seen as coming down on the side of a government that wants an election, rather than relinquish power. The stakes couldn’t be any higher."


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 29, 2017, 07:32:30 AM
Palmer says Guichon should give Horgan a chance despite Grit scheming.
 (http://vancouversun.com/opinion/columnists/vaughn-palmer-clark-schemes-dreams-that-alliance-is-a-flop-in-waiting)
Mainstreet:  (https://twitter.com/nspector4/status/880394918660681728)45/34/17. 43/37 in Greater Vancouver.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 29, 2017, 08:28:35 AM
Mason: difficult to imagine Guichon ignoring Clark's advice. (https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/bc-watches-lieutenant-governor-guichon-for-the-provinces-political-future/article35497372/?service=amp)

We must have read a different article: "The eyes of the province, and country, now turn on Ms. Guichon. If she doesn’t give the NDP a chance to govern with a one-seat majority, something that has managed to work elsewhere in Canada for as many as three years, she will face enormous criticism.

She will be seen as coming down on the side of a government that wants an election, rather than relinquish power. The stakes couldn’t be any higher."

RB loves to put his own spin on things, for some reason and doesn't address it when called out on it. *shrugs shoulders*.

Anyways, if Guichon says an election must be called, it would go against constitution precedent which states that the LG or GG has to give the other party leader a chance to be government. If that fails, then an election should be called.  For the LG to call for an election would be acting in a partisan matter. Unlike the speaker, the LG is not accountable to the public (as she is unelected) so has not legitimacy to go against precedent.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 29, 2017, 08:52:40 AM
My spin is that Clark should explicitly ask for dissolution, as Harper did for prorogation, and quit the word games.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 29, 2017, 09:17:18 AM
My spin is that Clark should explicitly ask for dissolution, as Harper did for prorogation, and quit the word games.

Prorogation and dissolution are two different things though. Prorogation does not entail having 2 elections in one calendar year.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on June 29, 2017, 12:54:09 PM
Even if Clark asked for a dissolution most observers felt the LG would refuse since having a second election in three months is nuts. Insightswest has a poll that says the NDP would win a snap election 41-36 with the Greens at 21


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 29, 2017, 01:20:53 PM
Even if Clark asked for a dissolution most observers felt the LG would refuse since having a second election in three months is nuts. Insightswest has a poll that says the NDP would win a snap election 41-36 with the Greens at 21

Mainstreet shows the opposite numbers. I worry that a snap election will have lower turnout, helping the Liberals.

If there is a snap election, I would hope that the NDP and Greens campaign together and not run candidates against each other. Use the election as a referendum on their agreement.

I would also hope that if Lt Gov be fired if she chooses another election. 


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 29, 2017, 03:05:38 PM
Baldrey: most likely scenario is Horgan being commissioned, 2nd most likely is dissolution. (https://twitter.com/keithbaldrey/status/880505780864258048)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on June 29, 2017, 04:27:38 PM
Baldrey: most likely scenario is Horgan being commissioned, 2nd most likely is dissolution. (https://twitter.com/keithbaldrey/status/880505780864258048)

It's literraly stating the obvious. I don't think there is any other solution (well, yes, appoint another Liberal that's not Clark, but there is no way this happens without Clark clearly asking it and even then, I'm not sure Guichon would obey).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 29, 2017, 04:40:41 PM
Apparently everyone and their dog has an opinion on what's going to happen. ::)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 29, 2017, 06:29:41 PM
Interesting (https://twitter.com/VaughnPalmer/status/880565093926264832) Palmer tweets (https://twitter.com/VaughnPalmer/status/880566968985583616) on a letter Guichon's private secretary sent a private citizen. My totally random guess: Horgan commissioned but asked to test confidence immediately.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 29, 2017, 07:22:16 PM
Government has been defeated. (https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/880581835318714368) Now to Government House.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on June 29, 2017, 07:34:20 PM
RB loves to put his own spin on things, for some reason and doesn't address it when called out on it. *shrugs shoulders*.

At least RB observes decorum, unlike LL (initials will suffice)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Dereich on June 29, 2017, 08:14:04 PM
As expected, the (Liberal) Speaker stepped down (https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/880591533619073024).


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Antonio the Sixth on June 29, 2017, 08:55:16 PM
As expected, the (Liberal) Speaker stepped down (https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/880591533619073024).

They should just keep electing liberals until one of them takes the seat. :P


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 29, 2017, 08:57:09 PM
Clark has been in there for about an hour. LG statement within 35 minutes. (https://twitter.com/AndreaWoo/status/880600290130632704)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon on June 29, 2017, 09:00:12 PM
Am I the only one who thinks this is really, really bad long-term strategy on the Liberals part?  Wouldn't a new election just result in Green votes in marginal Liberal seats putting NDP over the top with an actual majority?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: trebor204 on June 29, 2017, 09:17:59 PM
Five minute warning


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on June 29, 2017, 09:25:07 PM
No decision, LG will think it over.

Horgan arriving. (https://twitter.com/richardzussman/status/880615801547505667)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MaxQue on June 29, 2017, 10:20:38 PM
Horgan designated as PM by lieutenant governor.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 30, 2017, 12:15:39 AM
Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: cp on June 30, 2017, 06:09:06 AM
Yay! Still can't believe it took this long to get a result, and it will be another 2-3 weeks before the official transfer of power.

Out of curiosity, would this count as the closest the Green Party has come to being in government in Canada? I know it's basically just a 'supply and confidence' agreement (to borrow a recently relevant British phrase), but they are likely to exert a great deal of influence on governing for as long as this parliament lasts, perhaps even with a few signature initiatives passed into law.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on June 30, 2017, 08:15:50 AM
Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on June 30, 2017, 10:02:42 AM
Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

B.C Liberal Speaker Linda Reid was very partisan.  She just didn't vote in favor of government legislation.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on July 01, 2017, 05:18:44 AM
By accident I deleted my longer post.

Cabinet Prediction
1.Premier/Federal Provincial Relations, John Horgan
2.Finance, Bruce Ralston
3.Economic Development and Trade, Shane Simpson
4.Labour, Immigration and Citizenship/Government House Leader, Mike Farnworth
5.Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Nicholas Simons
6.Natural Resources and Forestry/Rural Affairs, Katrine Conroy
7.Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Lana Popham
8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum, Resources, Adrian Dix
9.Environment/Northern Affairs, Doug Donaldson
10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Michelle Mungall
11.Government Services, Innovation and Technology, Doug Routley
12.Human Resources and Housing, Harry Bains
13.Children and Family Development, Melanie Mark
14.Education/Deputy Premier, Carole James
15.Advanced Education and Training, Jennifer Rice
16.Health, Judy Darcy
17.Municipal Affairs/Translink, Selina Robinson
18.Aboriginal Relations, Len Krog
19.Justice and Public Safety, David Eby


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on July 02, 2017, 02:32:09 PM
So the new GreeNDP gov't will comprise:

41 NDP + 3 Green v. 43 Libs. IOW it appears that votes in the BC Legislature will likely be tied 43 -  43 with the Speaker drawn from NDP ranks.

The Speaker has a casting vote to break ties. By convention, a Speaker votes to continue with the "status quo" and let debate continue in 1st and 2nd readings of bills. By convention, a Speaker votes against a tied vote in 3rd and final reading of a bill (or whatever) prior to royal assent in order to keep the "status quo".

Since 1871, only 2 Speaker casting votes have ever been made in the BC Legislature either on 1st or 2nd reading of a bill. Even in Canada's fed Parliament the 11 casting votes made were either on 1st or 2nd reading of a bill. Never 3rd and final reading.

Constitutional experts suggest that in a tied Legislature the Speaker may either bend or break convention. Unfortunately not in BC - it would be breaking the law.

Unlike other provinces though, BC has a statute entitled the CONSTITUTION ACT [RSBC 1996] CHAPTER 66. It is not a "Constitution" per se but statute law, which governs the BC Legislature and government. Speaker convention has been enshrined into law therein.

Section 43 therein is critical here:

Quote
Decisions of Legislative Assembly by majority vote

43 All questions must be determined by a majority of votes of the members present, other than the Speaker.
http://www.bclaws.ca/civix/document/...6_01#section43

IOW all "Decisions" of the BC Legislature - 3rd reading of bills, budgets, etc. must be approved by a majority legislative vote and the Speaker has no casting vote in these circumstances. At all. Statute law here. Nothing to do with convention.

Moreover, BC also has another statute entitled INTERPRETATION ACT [RSBC 1996] CHAPTER 238.

Section 29 is of import in relation to the foregoing:

Quote
Expressions defined

29 In an enactment:


"must" is to be construed as imperative;

http://www.bclaws.ca/civix/document/...8_01#section29

Further reinforces the fact that a majority of the legislature must vote in favour of legislation, budgets, etc. at 3rd and final reading prior to royal assent - and the Speaker does not have the legal/statutory option of a casting vote thereto.

Section 44 of the CONSTITUTION ACT also provides for the following:

Quote
Tied vote

44 If a vote in the Legislative Assembly is tied, the Speaker has a casting vote.

Now quite apparent by statute, the Speaker can break a tie vote in 1st reading and 2nd reading of bills, amendments thereto, etc. ... but it is also quite clear that the Speaker cannot cast a tie-breaking vote in 3rd and final reading of a bill or a budget. IOW, S 43 of the CONSTITUTION ACT over-rides S 44. Both S 43 and S 44 must be "read together" for full meaning and effect.

To further corroborate the foregoing, at the commencement of the new Parliament, long time Clerk of the BC Legislature Craig James advised the House as follows:

Quote
Clerk of the House: Good morning, Members.

Much has been said about the speakership in the Legislative Assembly of British Columbia since May 9. A lot of what is being talked about is wrong. A lot of what has been examined by way of confidence motions, casting vote and the way this place functions is and has been wrong.
...
Section 43 of the act states that “all questions must be determined by a majority of votes of the members present other than the Speaker,” which further separates the speakership from the general membership of the House.

https://www.leg.bc.ca/documents-data/debate-transcripts/41st-parliament/1st-session/20170622am-Hansard-n1

The BC gov't has not yet passed it's budget for fiscal year 2017-2018 - it is running on interim supply bills, which run out September 30. Ergo now appears the legislature will sit in early September and the first orders of business will be a new Throne Speech and Budget.

Superimpose the GreeNDP gov't upon same: 43 (NDP + Green) v. 43 Libs + 1 Speaker. With a tied vote, by statute (S. 43), no bills can be passed... no budgets can be passed. Not even a Throne Speech.

Horgan will then have no alternative but to visit the LG and ask for dissolution. Prime facie looks like a new October election date is in the wings.

PS. Don't yet know what's driving same but 2 new opinion polls over the past few days have the Libs with either an 11% lead (Mainstreet Research) or a 6% lead (Ipsos-Reid):

http://www.mainstreetresearch.ca/bc-liberals-lead-post-throne-speech/

https://www.ipsos.com/en-ca/news-polls/bc-liberals-go-out-on-top


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: warandwar on July 02, 2017, 03:18:28 PM
I think section 43 just means the speaker doesn't count as a "present member" when determining a majority.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: the506 on July 04, 2017, 09:39:29 AM
Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

Should also note that for a good chunk of the time, Lord appointed two opposition MLAs to patronage appointments and waited a ridiculous amount of time to call the by-elections, so the vacancies gave him some breathing room. (There was also one budget vote that was conveniently scheduled for a day at least 2 Liberal MLAs and Elizabeth Weir were out of town.)

The Liberals ended up winning both those by-elections, and when the Tanker Malley debacle  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Malley)happened, the jig was up.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 04, 2017, 11:05:03 AM
Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

Should also note that for a good chunk of the time, Lord appointed two opposition MLAs to patronage appointments and waited a ridiculous amount of time to call the by-elections, so the vacancies gave him some breathing room. (There was also one budget vote that was conveniently scheduled for a day at least 2 Liberal MLAs and Elizabeth Weir were out of town.)

The Liberals ended up winning both those by-elections, and when the Tanker Malley debacle  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Malley)happened, the jig was up.

Reminds me of when Dalton McGuinty - who had come 1 seat away from winning a majority in 2011 - appointed Elizabeth Witmer to head the WSIB. Witmer was probably the only Tory to represent an otherwise Liberal seat (she had won it because she was quite popular), so she was a good choice for McGuinty to trigger a by-election to get a majority. Of course the plan backfired, and the NDP won the seat, with the Liberals finishing third. :D

Will Horgan try to appoint Liberal MLAs to comfy government jobs? Would be a big risk, I don't think they could win any current Liberal seats in a by-election. Perhaps if they could convince the Greens to not also run.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on July 04, 2017, 11:28:44 AM
Sanity has prevailed.

Some people have brought up New Brunswick from 2003-2006 as a guide for what should happen in BC. Does anyone know if the speaker acted in a partisan way during that time? Or did the Tories get help from Elizabeth Weir once in a while?

The Globe has an article about this: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/british-columbia/new-brunswick-holds-lessons-for-bc-on-speaker-traditions/article35507822/

Apparently the speaker did act in a partisan way. Well, well, well. We have precedent!

Should also note that for a good chunk of the time, Lord appointed two opposition MLAs to patronage appointments and waited a ridiculous amount of time to call the by-elections, so the vacancies gave him some breathing room. (There was also one budget vote that was conveniently scheduled for a day at least 2 Liberal MLAs and Elizabeth Weir were out of town.)

The Liberals ended up winning both those by-elections, and when the Tanker Malley debacle  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Malley)happened, the jig was up.

Reminds me of when Dalton McGuinty - who had come 1 seat away from winning a majority in 2011 - appointed Elizabeth Witmer to head the WSIB. Witmer was probably the only Tory to represent an otherwise Liberal seat (she had won it because she was quite popular), so she was a good choice for McGuinty to trigger a by-election to get a majority. Of course the plan backfired, and the NDP won the seat, with the Liberals finishing third. :D

Will Horgan try to appoint Liberal MLAs to comfy government jobs? Would be a big risk, I don't think they could win any current Liberal seats in a by-election. Perhaps if they could convince the Greens to not also run.

IF Horgan did this, and like you said big risk, there are a few seats I think the NDP/Green vote could win. (I think it would have to be NDP with green support and no candidate):

*Vancouver-False Creek -> combined NDP/Green vote would have won the seat, if the NDP candidate from 2017 runs again she was very high profile, socially liberal area but wealthy I believe.
*Couquitlam-Burke Mountain -> surprise NDP win in a by-election, and a very close lose for the NDP in the General, combined NDP/Green vote would have won it. Not my first choice since this was/is a traditionally BCL seat.
*Skeena or Columbia River-Revelstoke ->BCL gains in 2017, but traditionally NDP seats. CRR would be NDP with the combined NDP/G votes. Another bonus is that these are rural/interior seats that the NDP need to win back to form a majority.

For a Green win, NDP supporting Green; West Vancouver - Sea-to-Sky, Greens were second here with the combined NDP/G vote would have won.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Vega on July 04, 2017, 12:45:54 PM
^
Horgan should just hold a new election if he is going to play games like that.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on July 04, 2017, 03:11:40 PM
I don't think you can compare this to the Dalton McGuinty situation in 2011-2012. McGuinty had been Premier for 8 years and had suffered a major rebuke when he lost his majority in 2011. He was on the way down and his popularity was plunging even lower after the election.

You cannot compare this to BC where the NDP is on the way up and is the new government with a honeymoon. A better comparison is how a year after the Liberal/NDP accord took office in Ontario in 1985 the Ontario Liberals had already bolstered their ranks by 3 - first of all two NDP MPPs crossed to the Liberals and then the Ontario Liberals won a byelection in Tory held York East.

I doubt if the NDP going to start trying to trigger byelections in winnable seats, but I could see them approaching a Liberal MLA in a very marginal seat with the offer that that person resign from the Liberal caucus and run for speaker as an independent and the NDP and Greens offer to let that person run for releection in the next election unopposed on the British model.

The other thing that could happen is that some Liberal MLAs quit to take jobs in the private sector and even if they represent seats that are unwinnable for the NDP - Horgan could wait up to six months to call a byelection and have long stretches where his margin in the ldge expands to 2 seats


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on July 04, 2017, 07:09:32 PM
After Christy Clark's stunt with the throne speech, I could imagine one or two Liberal M.L.As who act in some way to make it clear that they won't guarantee their support for the B.C Liberals until she steps down as leader.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on July 04, 2017, 10:22:41 PM
Yeah, a BC Liberal sitting as an Independent might be a likelier possibility than triggered byelections.

Incidentally, I don't know historical BC politics in-depth, but besides Gordon Wilson, has there ever been any sitting Lib/Socred MLAs jumping to the NDP?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on July 05, 2017, 06:31:24 AM
Yeah, a BC Liberal sitting as an Independent might be a likelier possibility than triggered byelections.

Incidentally, I don't know historical BC politics in-depth, but besides Gordon Wilson, has there ever been any sitting Lib/Socred MLAs jumping to the NDP?

Other then Gordon Wilson, I don't think so. But there are two who have left the NDP to sit with the SoCreds. In 1975 Frank Calder the MLA for Atlin crossed to the SoCreds, and the NDP candidate who defeated him, Al Passarell, in 1985 switched to the SoCreds. What was up with Atlin!

Something else to think about, with Clark's HUGE shift, what is the likelihood that some of the more right-wing Liberals leave to sit as Conservatives/Independents? It's happened not that long ago here


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 05, 2017, 08:50:34 AM
Atlin should never have been a separate riding in the first place. It's basically the Yukon up there anyways, and it has the floor crossing legacy to prove it.

Clark will probably stay on as leader, due to the instability. It doesn't appear that her approval ratings have taken a large hit from all of this. BC is too polarized for that. If she cooperates too much with the government (not likely), I can see a resurgence of the Conservative Party in BC, with some floor crossing.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Lotuslander on July 08, 2017, 01:44:05 AM

Should also note that for a good chunk of the time, Lord appointed two opposition MLAs to patronage appointments and waited a ridiculous amount of time to call the by-elections, so the vacancies gave him some breathing room. (There was also one budget vote that was conveniently scheduled for a day at least 2 Liberal MLAs and Elizabeth Weir were out of town.)

The Liberals ended up winning both those by-elections, and when the Tanker Malley debacle  (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Malley)happened, the jig was up.

A very well written paper/thesis IMHO regarding NB Speakers Bev Harrison and Michael ‘Tanker’ Malley from the then 55th NB Legislature essentially corroborating your post...

[Lyle Skinner - Saint Thomas University - Fredericton, New Brunswick - September 30, 2008]

https://tinyurl.com/y9ec68pl

PS. Said paper also acknowledges that BC is the only province in Canada with it's own BC Constitution Act, which I referenced up-thread.

Edited: Link fixed.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 🦀🎂🦀🎂 on July 08, 2017, 03:05:09 AM
Fix your link lotus.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: politicallefty on July 17, 2017, 05:52:26 AM
It's not related to the election, but do Canadians actually follow British pronunciation and pronounce Lieutenant with an "f"? I saw a video of Christy Clark and I always that that pronunciation was strictly British.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 17, 2017, 09:41:16 AM
It's not related to the election, but do Canadians actually follow British pronunciation and pronounce Lieutenant with an "f"? I saw a video of Christy Clark and I always that that pronunciation was strictly British.

Yes we do. At least, we're supposed to. It's such a rarely used word that most people don't pronounce it properly.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on July 17, 2017, 12:37:37 PM
From the article this weekend from Vaughn Palmer, there are eight or nine standing legislative committees and I noticed I missed a couple positions that the NDP could place a minister of state in, so scrap the Parliamentary Secretaries.

Ministers of State
1.International Trade, Jagrup Brar
2.Immigration and Citizenship, Katrina Chen
3.Energy and Climate Change, Spencer Chandra Herbert
4.Technology, Bowinn Ma
5.Housing, George Chow
6.Apprenticeships and Training, George Heyman
7.Mental Health and Addictions, Rachna Singh
8.Seniors, Jinny Sims
9.Status of Women, Janet Routledge
10.Public Safety and Emergency Preparedness, Garry Begg
11.Child Care, Mitzi Dean
12.Electoral Reform, Claire Trevena

Legislative Standing Committee Chairs
1.Finance and Government Services, Ravi Kahlon
2.Crown Corporations, Bob D'Eith
3.Health, Ronna Rae Leonard
4.Legislative Initiatives, Rick Glumac
5.Education, Anne Kang
6.Aboriginal Affairs, Lisa Beare

The three other standing committees are:
1.Public Accounts, which is always chaired by a member of the official opposition
2.Parliamtentary Reform, Ethical Conduct, Standing Orders and Private Bills, makes sense to me anyway for a Green to chair this
3.Children and Youth, maybe this can be combined with Education or something

Oddly enough, there isn't a single standing committee for resources or the environment.

Caucus/Legislative Officers
1.Speaker, Raj Chouhan
2.Assistant Deputy Speaker (or Deputy Speaker), Rob Fleming
3.Chief Government Whip, Scott Fraser (already appointed)
4.Caucus Chair, Mable Elmore

If there is another Speaker position needed and another New Democrat needed to be chair of a legislative committee, remove a couple Ministers of State, though I'm not sure which ones, I like them all.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Njall on July 18, 2017, 04:33:57 PM
Cabinet
Premier – John Horgan
Minister of Advanced Education, Skills & Training – Melanie Mark
Minister of Agriculture – Lana Popham
Attorney General – David Eby
Minister of Children & Family Development – Katrine Conroy
Minister of State for Childcare – Katrina Chen
Minister of Citizens’ Services – Jinny Sims
Minister of Education – Rob Fleming
Minister of Energy, Mines & Petroleum Resources – Michelle Mungall
Minister of Environment & Climate Change Strategy – George Heyman
Minister of Finance and Deputy Premier – Carole James
Minister of Forests, Lands, Natural Resource Operations and Rural Development – Doug Donaldson
Minister of Health – Adrian Dix
Minister of Indigenous Relations and Reconciliation – Scott Fraser
Minister of Jobs, Trade & Technology – Bruce Ralston
Minister of State for Trade – George Chow
Minister of Labour – Harry Bains
Minister of Mental Health & Addictions – Judy Darcy
Minister of Municipal Affairs and Housing – Selina Robinson
Minister of Public Safety and Solicitor General – Mike Farnworth
Minister of Social Development and Poverty Reduction – Shane Simpson
Minister of Tourism, Arts and Culture – Lisa Beare
Minister of Transportation and Infrastructure – Claire Trevena

Parliamentary Secretaries
Parliamentary Secretary for Emergency Preparedness – Jennifer Rice
Parliamentary Secretary for Poverty Reduction – Mable Elmore
Parliamentary Secretary for Seniors – Anne Kang
Parliamentary Secretary for Sport and Multiculturalism – Ravi Kahlon
Parliamentary Secretary for Technology – Rick Glumac
Parliamentary Secretary for Translink – Bowinn Ma


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: RogueBeaver on July 28, 2017, 12:30:22 PM
Clark's quitting as Grit leader. So Dippers get a break for a while. (https://twitter.com/HuffPostCanada/status/890985618028863489)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DL on July 28, 2017, 01:32:37 PM
Clark is not only quitting as leader of the BC Liberal Party, she is also resigning her seat in the legislature effective August 4. Since Horgan has six months to call a byelection that means the NDP/Greens will have a clear majority with no need for a tie-breaking vote by the speaker during the entire fall session and up to March of 2018.

Where is "Lotuslander" these days? I usually rely on his posts about BC politics to know what will NOT happen next.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: lilTommy on July 28, 2017, 02:29:51 PM
Clark is not only quitting as leader of the BC Liberal Party, she is also resigning her seat in the legislature effective August 4. Since Horgan has six months to call a byelection that means the NDP/Greens will have a clear majority with no need for a tie-breaking vote by the speaker during the entire fall session and up to March of 2018.

Where is "Lotuslander" these days? I usually rely on his posts about BC politics to know what will NOT happen next.

The NDP have never won this seat, so this is a good thing. Had this been a winnable seat, we could see a by-election before that (ONLY if it was really winnable)
but question, since the NDP HAS no history here, this is not favourable territory, could they not run a candidate in favour of a Green? (posted in the other CDN by-election thread too)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 28, 2017, 02:45:04 PM
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: MAINEiac4434 on July 28, 2017, 03:18:03 PM
So who are the likely candidates to replace Clark as leader?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on July 28, 2017, 03:31:48 PM
Clark is not only quitting as leader of the BC Liberal Party, she is also resigning her seat in the legislature effective August 4. Since Horgan has six months to call a byelection that means the NDP/Greens will have a clear majority with no need for a tie-breaking vote by the speaker during the entire fall session and up to March of 2018.

Where is "Lotuslander" these days? I usually rely on his posts about BC politics to know what will NOT happen next.

The NDP have never won this seat, so this is a good thing. Had this been a winnable seat, we could see a by-election before that (ONLY if it was really winnable)
but question, since the NDP HAS no history here, this is not favourable territory, could they not run a candidate in favour of a Green? (posted in the other CDN by-election thread too)

The CCF though held the Kelowna area federally from 1948-1957 under Owen Jones, a furniture store owner and mayor of Kelowna throughout the 1930s.

http://www.kelownacapnews.com/opinion/letter-kelowna-voters-supported-ccf-precursor-to-ndp/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Owen_Jones_(politician)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on July 28, 2017, 03:44:33 PM
So who are the likely candidates to replace Clark as leader?

The first name being mentioned is Dianne Watts, the former Surrey mayor and presently Conservative M.P for Surrey-White Rock.

Watts was a very popular mayor but her popularity dropped somewhat from her leaving as mayor to running for M.P due to a wave of gang shootings and other crime problems in Surrey that caused a re-evaluation of her tenure as mayor, and she won her election to Parliament by a narrow margin (I think 1,600 votes.)

If she doesn't run, I think most of the attention would turn first to those who ran against Christy Clark in 2011: Kevin Falcon and George Abbott.  Abbott has said he's done with politics and is no longer a member of the B.C Liberals (I believe I read he was also once a New Democrat) but Kevin Falcon came forward to criticize Clark for her stolen throne speech stunt.

Other than them, I would look at Mike Bernier the former Education Minister who is regarded as somebody who can bring people together.  I think his firing of the Vancouver School Board would also large help him in his run for leader.  He can portray himself as a consensus builder who also has a spine.

I would think John Rustad who received very positive grades for his handling of the B.C forest fires as the person who was named the Forests and Natural Resource Operations minister for the brief time after the Liberal election loss would also be a strong candidate.

An outsider I'd like to see but has given no indication is James Moore, the former Conservative M.P and Industry Minister who was regarded as a 'Red Tory.'

From the 'who asked you to run?' list, those who are considered to want to run but not likely to garner a lot of support are the extremely book smart but hopelessly tin eared Andrew Wilkinson and the former mayor of Vancouver Sam Sullivan.  I think there may have been one or two other Liberal M.L.As who have been mentioned as wanting to run but not likely to garner a lot of support (unless, of course, nobody who would be the frontrunners decides to run.)


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on July 28, 2017, 04:22:39 PM
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

Weaver was just interviewed on CKNW and when he was asked about the idea of discussing running a single candidate with the NDP he said "we are an opposition party and will run a candidate."  I think the concept that he might ask the NDP to not run a candidate never even occurred to him.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on July 28, 2017, 10:24:41 PM
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: 136or142 on July 29, 2017, 05:37:53 AM
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


From the CBC website:
After Christy Clark announced she would be stepping down as leader of the B.C. Liberal Party, the first public comments from her fellow MLAs came from Rich Coleman, B.C.'s long-time deputy premier.   

"I want to talk about Christy for a second," he said, voice choking up, outside the building where the Liberals were holding a caucus retreat.

"I've never worked with anybody with more passion and love, strength of leadership and management in my entire life than Christy Clark.

"What she's given to this province should never be forgiven," said Coleman, before realizing his mistake.

"Forgotten."

To misquote former B.C Liberal Leader Gordon Wilson "This is a classic example...of a Freudian slip."


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 29, 2017, 09:59:04 PM
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 30, 2017, 05:33:07 AM
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 30, 2017, 10:19:14 AM
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? ;) I just created my own crosstabs!


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: DC Al Fine on July 30, 2017, 11:23:41 AM
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? ;) I just created my own crosstabs!

Yes. That was poor wording on my part.

Are you guys polling BC enough to get a large enough sample for meaningful crosstabs? Atlantic crosstabs are crappy enough, and the Okanagan is smaller than that


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Hatman 🍁 on July 31, 2017, 08:40:26 AM
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? ;) I just created my own crosstabs!

Yes. That was poor wording on my part.

Are you guys polling BC enough to get a large enough sample for meaningful crosstabs? Atlantic crosstabs are crappy enough, and the Okanagan is smaller than that

We had a lot of data across the country available during the federal election. It's why my (our) seat by seat predictions were the best; I was able to identify trends that no one else could possibly know (except those working on the campaigns).



Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: Pragmatic Conservative on August 04, 2017, 07:48:28 PM
New BC Liberal shadow cabinet revealed  and BC Legislature will return on September 8th.

 http://www.cbc.ca/beta/news/canada/british-columbia/ndp-throne-speech-sept-8-bc-1.4234967


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: mileslunn on August 10, 2017, 11:16:52 PM
The Greens and NDP might want to run just one candidate between them. The riding may have gone Liberal in the federal election (hard to tell), so anything is possible.

To everyone's surprise, Kelowna-Lake Country actually *did* go Liberal in 2015.  And this was with an assist from the Greens, who opted not to run a candidate there.  Meanwhile, in neighbouring Central Okanagan-S-N (the de facto federal "Kelowna West", and the successor to Stockwell Day's bulwark), the Grits came shockingly close to making it a federal twofer.

Provincially, I think the big-tent BC Liberals are still favoured.


Even though I predicted a Conservative win, I was not terribly surprised.  The Liberals had been polling quite well in the region.

Do you mean B.C. or are pollsters doing federal crosstabs for Vancouver, Okanagan etc?

You do know I work for a polling company right? ;) I just created my own crosstabs!

Yes. That was poor wording on my part.

Are you guys polling BC enough to get a large enough sample for meaningful crosstabs? Atlantic crosstabs are crappy enough, and the Okanagan is smaller than that

We had a lot of data across the country available during the federal election. It's why my (our) seat by seat predictions were the best; I was able to identify trends that no one else could possibly know (except those working on the campaigns).



Central Okanagan seems to never go NDP but it will occasionally go Liberal (as in real Liberal, not centre-right BC Liberals) if people are angry enough at the right.  I think the federal Liberal win there is more comparable to Judy Tyabji winning provincially in 1991 under the Gordon Wilson BC Liberals (who were a real liberal party then).  I suspect a combination of the left coalescing around the Liberals and some dissatisfied Tories pissed at Harper voting Liberal put them over the top.  Considering Christy Clark got 59% there and all the Okanagan ridings went massively BC Liberal, it would be a massive shock if she lost her seat.  What I am surprised about is she is not waiting until the leader is chosen as what if the next leader is someone like Diane Watts who doesn't have a seat in the legislature.  It would make sense to run him or her in a very safe seat rather than risk the embarrassment of losing never mind losing a seat gives the NDP-Greens a longer lease on life.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on August 11, 2017, 11:16:06 PM
I suspect a combination of the left coalescing around the Liberals and some dissatisfied Tories pissed at Harper voting Liberal put them over the top. 

Or, dissatisfied Tory *voters*, many of whom had hitherto viewed the CPC as an only-viable-option "vote of convenience".

Growth and demographic shifts may also be a factor, i.e. newer Kelowna hordes (including retirees) being more "moderate" and less Bible-Belty than their predecessors...


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: mileslunn on August 12, 2017, 10:59:47 PM
I suspect a combination of the left coalescing around the Liberals and some dissatisfied Tories pissed at Harper voting Liberal put them over the top. 

Or, dissatisfied Tory *voters*, many of whom had hitherto viewed the CPC as an only-viable-option "vote of convenience".

Growth and demographic shifts may also be a factor, i.e. newer Kelowna hordes (including retirees) being more "moderate" and less Bible-Belty than their predecessors...

True enough although it seems provincially at least the over 65 group is solidly BC Liberals whatever the federal leanings (sort of a more modified version in age distribution compared to the last British election).  Never mind it will be interesting to see if the federal Liberals manage to hold Kelowna-Lake Country in 2019.  Based on the current polling that just might, but history would suggest not so too early to tell.  That being said even if they do lose that one its not going to cost them government they would have to lose ones like the North Shore seats to be in danger of losing outright.


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: ProgressiveCanadian on September 09, 2017, 07:13:04 PM
The new speaker is Darryl Plecas who is my MLA and now he's gotten expelled from the BC Liberal party LOL.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/darryl-plecas-1.4282683

Quote
The BC Liberal party has revoked the party membership of MLA Darryl Plecas, one day after he became Speaker of the provincial legislature.

The party announced that Plecas was no longer a member in a statement on Saturday.

"Constituents must be able to trust their elected representatives," it said. "Party members must be able to trust those who hold positions of leadership in the party. And members of the legislature must be able to trust one another."

The statement said Plecas' decision was a betrayal, one he made "despite repeated promises and assurances that he would not."

Revoking Plecas' membership was "the strongest action available," a spokesperson added.

Can the BC Liberals do anything right?


Title: Re: 2017 British Columbia election
Post by: adma on September 09, 2017, 11:22:56 PM
Oddly enough, reading btw/the polling subdivision lines, I'd wonder about the BCNDP potential in Abbotsford--at least in the long term, with a bow to creeping ethnoburbanism.  (And particularly if Team Horgan continues its disarming "nice party" pattern.)